Ahead of the second U.S.-Africa Business Forum, where President Obama, in his “swan song,” looks to deepen U.S. investment in the continent and spur implementation of the deals at the last forum in 2014, Brookings scholars Amadou Sy, Witney Schneidman, and Vera Songwe discuss. Vera Songwe: “I think what President Obama has seen is you…

Benin is the new field of dreams and promises kept. In a year when many countries on the continent are changing their constitutions to allow for incumbent presidents to run yet again, Benin, under President Yayi Boni, is respecting the term limits set down in its constitution. Thanks in part to pressure from the population,…

As President Obama said during his recent address at the African Union, "There's a lot that I'd like to do to keep America moving. But the law is the law, and no person is above the law, not even the president." This sentence, uttered during his speech to the African Union last month, summarizes President…

Last week, Togo, a country of over 7 million people, voted for incumbent President Faure Gnassingbé for a third time. Gnassingbé is the son and immediate successor of Togo’s fifth president—Gnassingbé Eyadema—and, once he serves out his third term, his family will have run Togo for 48 years. In light of this latest development and…

The African Leadership Transitions Tracker (ALTT) is an interactive feature that factually recounts and visually presents changes at the head of state level in every African country from independence or end of the colonial period  to the present. The interactive application aims to start a broader conversation about leadership transitions and what they mean for…

Editor's Note: In this blog, Vera Songwe introduces the African Leadership Transitions Tracker, a new interactive that aims to start a broader conversation about leadership transitions and what they mean for the region and beyond. On March 28, Nigerians voters will go to the polls to participate in their nation’s fifth election since the military…

The year 2015 will be an eventful one for the more than one billion people living in Africa. China, Africa’s largest trading partner, will hold the Sixth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation; the Post-2015 Development Agenda will chart a new course for global responses to poverty; West Africa will begin its recovery from the devastating Ebola…

Executive Summary China’s rise — to the position of the world’s second-largest economy, its largest energy consumer, and its number two defense spender — has unsettled global affairs. Beijing’s shift in strategy towards a more assertive posture towards the West is amplifying a change in international dynamics from patterns of multilateral cooperation towards a pattern…

With its rising power, China has become more assertive in pursuit of its growing ambitions in Asia. This has raised fundamental questions about what revisions China seeks to the existing regional order, and whether China’s increasing activism in Asia foreshadows intentions to harness this growing power to assume more of a leadership role on the…

The 30 years since the opening of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989 have been marked by incredible progress toward a Europe “whole and free.” The European Communities became the European Union, grew to 28 member states, and helped raise living standards across the continent. NATO survived the end of the Cold War and…

Welcome to the fifth edition of the Trans-Atlantic Scorecard, a quarterly evaluation of U.S.-European relations produced by Brookings’s Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE), as part of the Brookings – Robert Bosch Foundation Transatlantic Initiative. To produce the Scorecard, we poll Brookings scholars and other experts on the present state of U.S. relations…

Director's summary With a dramatic power shift in the Indo-Pacific, the intensification of U.S.-China strategic rivalry, and uncertainty about the United States’ international role, Japan confronts a major stress test. How will Tokyo cope with an increasingly assertive China, an increasingly transactional approach to alliances in Washington, and a growing nuclear and missile capability in…

The rise of populism in the West and the rise of China in the East have stirred a debate about the role of democracy in the international system. The impact of globalization and digital capitalism is forcing worldwide attention to the starker divide between the “haves” and the “have-nots,” challenging how we think about the…

China has emerged as a truly global actor, with its influence extending across virtually all key strategic and geographic domains. To help make sense of the implications of China’s growing role in the world and America’s response, on Tuesday, October 1, Brookings hosted Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Randall Schriver for a…

As the world shifts into a period of renewed geopolitical competition, the multilateral order is straining to adapt. Both governments and the institutions that serve them recognize that circumstances are changing, and that multilateralism must change too — but so far, they have not agreed on a way forward. Anticipating the 75th anniversary of the…

Welcome to the fourth edition of the Trans-Atlantic Scorecard, a quarterly evaluation of U.S.-European relations produced by Brookings’s Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE), as part of the Brookings – Robert Bosch Foundation Transatlantic Initiative. To produce the Scorecard, we poll Brookings scholars and other experts on the present state of U.S. relations…

In April 2019, Algerians ousted President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, becoming the fifth Arab country to topple a president since 2011. Though successfully deposing the head of state, the protests continue today, with citizens taking to the streets to call for systemic regime change. The military begrudgingly endorsed the protesters’ demands to oust Bouteflika, but has since…

Partisan warfare and gridlock in Washington threaten to squander America’s opportunity to show the world that democracy can solve serious economic problems and ensure widely shared prosperity. Instead of working together to meet the challenges ahead—an aging work force, exploding inequality, climate change, rising debt—our elected leaders are sabotaging our economic future by blaming and…

America was once a country defined by our confident self-perception that we sometimes called “American exceptionalism.” Our “can-do” spirit helped us win two world wars, land on the moon, invent much of the world’s economy, and create a working class that was the envy of the world. Now we wonder whether we are a nation…

America spent $3.5 trillion on health care in 2017, totaling 17.9 percent of the country’s GDP. Health spending accounts for more than one-quarter of all federal spending and is expected to double over the next decade. Without policies in place to control the growth of health care spending, there is a risk that a large…

"I was always interested in doing good policy analysis, and improving the policy process," says Alice M. Rivlin in this interview about her career in public policy and contributions to making the policy process better. She is a senior fellow in Economic Studies and the Center for Health Policy at Brookings, and one of the nation's, and this…

The Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions recently requested recommendations from health policy experts at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and the Brookings Institution regarding policies that could reduce health care costs. A group of AEI and Brookings fellows jointly proposed recommendations aimed at four main goals: improving incentives in private insurance, removing…

Alice Rivlin was part of a symposium on sustainable U.S. health spending

The Affordable Care Act (ACA), through the individual health insurance markets, provided coverage for millions of Americans who could not get health insurance coverage through their employer or public programs. However, recent actions taken by the federal government, including Congress’s repeal of the individual mandate penalty, have led to uncertainty about market conditions for 2019.…

This week the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee raised short-term interest rates another notch, as expected, signaled they would likely raise rates twice more this year, and changed their “forward guidance” language to clarify their longer run intentions. Chairman Jerome Powell explained clearly why the Committee thought this policy would keep unemployment low and prices…

Chairman Womack, Ranking Member Yarmuth, and members of the Committee: Thank you for inviting me to present my views at the wrap-up hearing of your series on Oversight of CBO. Forty-three years ago, I had the good fortune to be chosen as the first director of CBO. It was a chance to launch a much-needed…

In a recent New York Times column, Paul Krugman rightly charges Republicans with hypocrisy for espousing fiscal responsibility while adding trillions to the national debt, but adds “my anger isn’t mostly directed at Republicans; it’s directed at their enablers, professional centrists…” I rise to the defense of the centrists. I consider myself a moderate Democrat,…

How Trump has used the federal government to promote conservative policies The presidency of Donald Trump has been unique in many respects—most obviously his flamboyant personal style and disregard for conventional niceties and factual information. But one area hasn’t received as much attention as it deserves: Trump’s use of the “administrative presidency,” including executive orders…

The United States is receiving global opprobrium for its record in an important environmental performance measure: methane emissions related to oil and gas production. The World Bank reports that America ranks fourth among producing peers in total releases. Only Russia, Iraq, and Iran produce more methane.It is eminently possible that the U.S. will pass one…

The U.S. tax code systematically favors investments in robots and software over investments in people, suggests, a paper to be discussed at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity conference March 19. The result is too much automation that destroys jobs while only marginally improving efficiency. The paper—Does the U.S. Tax Code Favor Automation by Daron…

Inflation has been largely disconnected from business cycle ups and downs over the past 30 years.  This puzzling observation is one more reason why the Federal Reserve should consider adopting a systematic monetary policy strategy that reacts more forcefully to off-target inflation—whether too high or too low, suggests a paper to be discussed at the…

The number of jobs employers are trying to fill is higher relative to the number of unemployed people than at any time in the last quarter century, yet both wages and prices have been surprisingly stable.  One reason for that surprising disconnect might be that this standard metric overstates the tightness of the labor market,…

Do financial market participants, collectively, possess special wisdom about when economies are at risk of falling into a recession?  When is Growth at Risk, a paper to be discussed at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity conference March 19, suggests the answer is, “Probably not.” “The results presented in this paper indicate that financial variables…

A decline in workers’ power, rather than an increase in corporations’ monopoly power, likely explains the co-existence of four significant trends in the U.S. economy since the early 1980s: a declining share of national income going to labor, increased market values of corporations, low average unemployment, and low inflation, says a paper to be discussed…

Summary Philippe Andrade, Jordi Galí, Hervé Le Bihan, and Julien Matheron study how changes in the steady-state natural interest rate affect the optimal inflation target, finding that starting from pre-crisis values, a 1 percentage point decline in the natural rate should be accommodated by an increase in the optimal inflation target of about 0.9 to…

SUMMARY Christopher Avery, Jessica Howell, Matea Pender, and Bruce Sacerdote, analyze state policies to increase four-year college completion rates, concluding that increased spending at all public colleges and targeted elimination of tuition and fees at four-year public colleges for income-eligible students are the most cost-effective options, while free community college is the least effective—finding it…

Summary Kristin Forbes explores whether growing globalization has played a role in inflation over the last decade, finding that its role in determining CPI inflation dynamics has increased since the financial crisis. Forbes argues that a better treatment of globalization in inflation models will help improve forecasts and could help explain the growing wedge between…

Summary Craig Garthwaite, John Graves, Tal Gross, Zeynal Karaca, Victoria Marone, and Matthew J. Notowidigdo study the effect of the Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion on hospital services, with a focus on the geographic variations of its impact, finding that it increased Medicaid visits, decreased uninsured visits, and lead the uninsured to consume more hospital…

Summary Federico Sturzenegger reviews the various macroeconomic stabilization programs implemented under the Macri presidency, seeking to shed light on what went wrong and what monetary and fiscal policy lessons can be learned from the experience in Argentina. Citation Sturzenegger, Federico. 2019. "Macri's Macro: The meandering road to stability and growth" BPEA Conference Draft, Fall. Conflict…

Over the past several years, Vladimir Putin and senior Russian officials have talked loosely about nuclear weapons, suggesting the Kremlin might not fully comprehend the awful consequences of their use. That has caused a degree of worry in the West. Now, the West has in Donald Trump—the Republican nominee to become the next president of […]

How has the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—signed between the P5+1 and Iran one year ago—played out in practice? Several Brookings scholars, many of whom participated prominently in debates last year as the deal was reaching its final stages, offered their views.

We can say the nuclear deal is off to a promising start, writes Bob Einhorn. Still, it is already clear that the path ahead will not always be smooth, the longevity of the deal cannot be taken for granted, and keeping it on track will require constant focus in Washington and other interested capitals.

The Pentagon is embarking on a modernization of U.S. strategic nuclear forces that will cost hundreds of billions of dollars. Much of it makes sense, as key elements of the strategic triad age out and require replacement. As long as nuclear weapons exist, the United States should maintain a robust triad. However, the long-range stand-off weapon (LRSO), a new nuclear-armed air-launched cruise missile, does not make sense.

The Deep Cuts Commission, a trilateral German-Russian-U.S. Track II effort, published its latest report on June 20. The report examines measures that the United States, NATO, and Russia might take to reduce tension and the risk of military miscalculation. It also offers ideas for resolving differences between the West and Russia on issues such as compliance with the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and restoring momentum to the arms control process.

Was the Iran nuclear deal, signed last summer, a prelude to proliferation across the Middle East? This is a question that Brookings Senior Fellow Robert Einhorn and Non-resident Senior Fellow Richard Nephew explore in a new report. At an event to discuss their findings, Einhorn and Nephew argued that none of the Middle East’s “likely suspects” appears both inclined and able to acquire indigenous nuclear weapons capability in the foreseeable future. They also outlined policy options for the United States and other members of the P5+1.

Moscow is not happy about the newly operational missile interceptor site in Romania, nor the installation in progress in Poland. The Iran nuclear deal could open a possibility for reconsidering the SM-3 deployment plans. To get there, however, the Kremlin should offer something in the arms control field of interest to Washington and NATO.

In last summer’s congressional debate over the Iran nuclear deal, one of the more hotly debated issues was whether the deal would decrease or increase the likelihood that countries in the Middle East would pursue nuclear weapons. Bob Einhorn strongly believes the JCPOA will significantly reduce prospects for proliferation in the Middle East

When Iran and the P5+1 signed a deal over Tehran’s nuclear program last July, members of Congress, Middle East analysts, and Arab Gulf governments all warned that the agreement would prompt Iran’s rivals in the region to race for the bomb. The likelihood of a proliferation cascade in the Middle East is fairly low, but not zero. Given that, here are steps that leaders in Washington should take to head off that possibility.

Robert Einhorn and Richard Nephew analyze the impact of the Iran deal on prospects for nuclear proliferation in the Middle East in their new monograph.