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The USD is higher in trading today as the Trump trade continues. HIgher USD. Higher stocks. Bonds we don't know as the bond market is closed for Veterans Day today. Gold is lower but bitcoin in higher.

In this video, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective.

EURUSD: The EURUSD fell below the swing lows from June between 1.0665 to 1.06705. That is below the low from last week at 1.06819. Staying below that area keeps the sellers in control. Absent a move above those levels and the buyers are not winning. ON the downside, the next support comes in at 2024 lows between 1.0600 to 1.06097.

USDJPY: The USDJPY has bounced higher and pushed to the 153.88 level. That level has helped to slow the run higher today. Recall from last week, the price did move above that level and ran to a high of 154.70 on the dollar buying after the Election before the corrective move lower (the price bottomed at the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart). So the pair is at a key technical level between support at the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart, and the high from last week at 154.70.

GBPUSD:The GBPUSD has seen more up-and-down momentum over the last few weeks of trading. It is trading near the low of that up and down range with 1.2832 to 1.2872 the swing area to get to and through to increase the bearish bias. On the topside gettting back above the low from 3 weeks ago comes in at 1.29065. That would need to be broken to give the buyers more confidence.

The price of crude oil is trading down $-2.20 or -3.12% at $68.20. That's the lowest level since October 30.

The price reached a peak on Thursday at $72.84. That the price briefly above its 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high at $72.59. However on Friday, the price fell below its 100-hour moving average near $71.50 and in trading today, fell and stayed below its 200-hour moving average at $70.52. It would take a move back above the 200-hour moving average to hurt the bearish bias.

On the downside, the price is approaching a swing low going back to October 18 at $68.13. Move below that level and traders will start to look toward a rising trendline near $68.10. The low price from October 29 comes near $66.69.

Meanwhile, gasoline prices in the US are down -11.36% on the year at $3.19 (average price for all grades of gasoline). Prior to Covid, the price was around $2.78. The low at the depth of Covid reached $1.87. The current level is near the lows from the end of 2023 and start of 2024 near $3.17.

Retail Gasoline prices for all grades of gasoline

Last week, the preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 73.0. With gas prices continuing to move lower and the Trump victory, what will that do to sentiment? The high for the Biden administration reached 86.5 with the low at 50.2 in June 2022. That corresponded with the high in gasoline prices.

The USDCHF has moved higher in trading today and in the process moved above the swing highs from last week and swing area between 0.8772 to 0.8776. That area is now a close risk and bias-defining level. Staying above is more bullish.

The move above that area today has led to an increase in momentum with the price moving to and through the 50% midpoint of the move down from the Mqy 1 high. That level comes in at 0.87986 (near natural resistance at 0.8800).

The price is in trading above and below that level the last four or so hours of trading with a high price of 0.8804. Also in play on the topside is its 200-day moving average at 0.8817 and a swing area from 0.88187 to 0.88251. Get above those levels would open the door for more upside momentum.

So buyers and sellers are battling it out near the 50% midpoint and below the 200-day moving average. That is natural estranged can defined and limited risk against the technical levels. However, the price were to move above the 200-day moving average, the seller leaning now, should look to cover and push the price higher.

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USDCHF Summary

The USDCHF continues its upward trend, testing the 50% target level at 0.87986.

Key Levels:

Resistance

• 0.8817 (200-day MA)

• 0.88187-0.8825 (swing area)

Support

• 0.8772-0.87763 (last week's highs)

Outlook:

• Breaking above 0.88187-0.8825 opens door for more upside momentum.

• Moving below 0.8772-0.87763 gives sellers short-term advantage.

• Absent a breakdown, buyers remain in control, targeting new highs since July 31.

Gold futures warning: bull flag breakdown points to further downside risk for GC traders ????

Gold futures (GC) have recently broken out of a significant bull flag formation, and after a strong rally, prices have now pulled back, raising concerns among traders and investors. Let’s dive into the details and what it means for those holding or trading gold.

Understanding the measured move: a key level for professional traders ????

After breaking out of the yellow bull flag on the 4-hour chart, gold prices made a “measured move” from the low point A to the top of the bull flag pole at B, reaching as high as C. In trading, a measured move is a projection based on the initial rally (or decline) within a pattern, allowing traders to estimate where the price might head next. This level often aligns with Fibonacci retracements, with the 50% level in this case acting as a key decision-making point for professional traders and algorithms, who tend to sell at the completion of a measured move.

In this case, the measured move fulfilled its target, and prices began to pull back, signaling that some traders are locking in gains and potentially positioning for a reversal. This is often seen as an exhaustion point, where buyers lose steam, and sellers start stepping in.

Retesting the broken bull flag: signs of weakness? ????

Now, gold is retesting the previously broken bull flag, a critical area that could either act as support or become a point of resistance. As of the latest data, GC futures are trading below the Value Area Low (VAL) of approximately 2635-2636, adding further bearish pressure to the outlook. If prices close below this level today, it may signal that support is not holding—a significant concern for gold bulls.

What traders should watch ????

• Closing price relative to VAL (2635-2636): A close below this level today would be a bearish signal, indicating that the support zone is failing to hold.
• Consecutive closes below VAL: If today and tomorrow both close below 2635-2636, it could reinforce a bearish trend, making it even harder for gold to recover in the short term.
• Bull flag as potential resistance: Now that the bull flag is broken, it may act as a new resistance point, which could further press down on prices.

Bottom line: is gold at risk of further downside? ⚠️

The recent breakdown from the bull flag, the completion of the measured move, and the failure to hold above the Value Area Low are all red flags for gold bulls. Should prices continue to close below 2635-2636, it could signal a stronger bearish trend for GC futures. As always, traders should approach with caution and assess their risk, as the market could face additional selling pressure if these support levels fail to hold. Trade at your own risk and visit ForexLive.com for additional views.

The USDCAD has backed backs off from ceiling area again. That area comes between 1.3945 and 1.3958.

The subsequent move to the downside has the pair heading toward 200 and 100-hour MA support targets at 1.39054 and 1.3898 respectively (green and blue lines on the chart below). A move below that level would target the rising 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.38784. Last week the price fell below that moving average line on two separate occasions only to fail and bounce back to the upside.

If the price were to get above the ceiling area, the 2022 high price comes in at 1.3977. Get above that and the price is trading at the highest level since 2020.

USDCAD Summary

The USDCAD is trending upward, approaching a key swing area between 1.3945-1.39581.

Key Levels:

Resistance

• 1.3945 to 1.3958. Swing highs over the last 7 trading days (from swing highs from Oct 31, Nov 1, 6, and 7.

• 1.3977 (2022 high)

Support

• 1.3905 - 200-hour MA)

• 1.3898 Rising 100-hour MA

Outlook:

• Break above 1.3977 targets highest level since 2020.

• Move below 1.3905 and rising 100-hour MA favors sellers.

• Otherwise, buyers maintain control, pushing for new highs.

Gold has been trending higher for a while now as traders hopped on the risk/safety trade going into the US election. Also higher inflation fear may have conttibuted. Finally, technicals were a help.

Looking at the daily chart below, apart from a day or two in February, the price has traded above the 100-day MA (blue line on the chart below) for every other day of the 2024 year. That MA is still well below at $2534.81. The current price is at $2619.79. Getting below it would be needed to give the sellers more control from a longer-term perspective.

Drilling down to the hourly chart below, the price trend move to the upside has seen corrective moves this year. More specifically, the price has alternated from trending with the price trading above the 100 and 200-hour moving averages, to correcting when the price fell below those moving averages.

On October 31st the price moved back below its 100-hour moving average. On November 1, and again on November 6 and November 8, the price retested the 100-hour moving average (on upside corrective moves) and found willing sellers against that moving average level. The sellers stayed in control at least in the short term (see three red arrows on the chart below).

In trading today, the momentum has increased to the downside with the price moving from a high of around $2675, to a low of $2610.52. The price is currently trading at $2619 down -$64 or -2.38%.

What next?

Looking at the hourly chart, the price is approaching a swing area going back to September and October (see red numbered circles and yellow area on the chart below) that area comes between $2598 and $2604. Also in play is the 38.2% of the move up from the June 2024 low to the October 30 high. That level comes in at $2598.06.

Getting below the 38.2% retracement is the minimum retracement target that shows the seller's mean business. Absent that, and the correction is just a normal correction in a trending market.

Traders will be watching that area for short and medium-term clues today and going forward. A move below will have traders looking toward the 50% midpoint at $2538.70 area. Around that area is also the rising 100 day moving average at $2534.80 increasing the areas importance. Be aware.

More records are reached today:

• Dow industrial average closes over 44,000 for the first time ever
• S&P index closes above the 6000 level the first time ever
• NASDAQ index closes at a new record level as well

For the Russell 2000 it lasts record close was back on November 8, 2021 at 2442.21. The index closed at 2434.97 after reaching an intraday high of 2441.72 just short of the record closing level.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average +304.14 points or 0.69% at 44293.13
• S&P index up 5.81 points or 0.10% at 6001.35
• NASDAQ index is up 11.99 points or 0.06% at 19298.76
• Russell 2000 up 35.33 points or 1.47% at 2434.97

For the Russell 2000, its high intraday level reached 2458.85 on November 10, 2021. For the year, the Russell 2000 is now up 20.12%. That has now surpassed a down industrial average gain of 17.52%.

The S&P index is now up 25.82% in 2024 while the NASDAQ index is up 28.56%.

Fundamental Overview

The puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might also be seeing some pre-positioning into a potentially hot US CPI report tomorrow.

At the latest Fed’s decision, Fed Chair Powell said that they expect bumps on inflation and that one or two bad data months on inflation won’t change the process. This keeps the 25 bps cut in December in place even if we get higher inflation readings.

The market though is forward-looking, and the rise in Treasury yields showed that the market sees risks to the inflation outlook. Moreover, the red sweep could increase those fears if the progress on inflation stalls, or worse, reverses.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY continues to consolidate above the key 152.00 support zone maintaining a bullish bias. If we were to get another pullback into the support, we can expect the buyers to step in once again to position for a rally into the 160.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 148.00 handle next.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. The price recently bounced near the trendline and we can expect the buyers to keep leaning on it, while the sellers will look for a break lower to gain more conviction for a bigger correction to the downside.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor support zone around the 153.40 level. This is where the buyers are stepping in with a defined risk below the zone to position for the continuation of the uptrend. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to target a pullback into the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

This week is a bit empty on the data front with the most important releases scheduled for the latter part of the week. Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

See the video below

Fundamental Overview

Bitcoin is now up almost 30% since the election day as the bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency exploded following Trump’s victory. This shouldn’t be surprising given that Trump vowed to make the US the crypto capital of the planet.

Moreover, it looks like the US economy continues not only to do well but also re-accelerating amid the Fed’s easing and the expectations of expansionary fiscal policies like tax cuts and deregulation.

Bitcoin, alongside Dogecoin and stocks like Tesla and Coinbase, have been the top beneficiaries of Trump’s victory given their direct connection to Trump. For now, there’s no real top in sight as we would likely need a contractionary monetary policy or a notable slowdown in the economy.

The risk going forward is the Fed. If the central bank starts to mention the need of more tightening, then we could see some big corrections in all risk assets. That day though looks to be at least a couple of months away for now.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin is now trading near the 90K level. The 100K level is the natural target, something that has been talked about a lot. That doesn’t mean it cannot go any higher than that though. For now, it’s a momentum play and despite the obvious nervousness one can get seeing the euphoria in the air, there’s no negative catalyst in sight that could reverse the trend.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. That’s now far away from the current price and it’s unlikely that we will see a pullback into it in the near term unless we get a very hot US CPI report tomorrow.

If we do get there though, the buyers will likely lean on it to position for a rally into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the next major trendline around the 75K level.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have another minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to position for further upside, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the next trendline.

More aggressive buyers, might pile in already on the break of the recent high around the 90K level targeting the 100K level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

This week is a bit empty on the data front with the most important releases scheduled for the latter part of the week. Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

Fundamental Overview

TSLA is now up more than 40% since the election day as the bullish momentum in the stock exploded following Trump’s victory. This shouldn’t be surprising given that Elon Musk bet big on Trump and the market is now rewarding it.

It looks like the US economy continues not only to do well but also re-accelerating amid the Fed’s easing and the expectations of expansionary fiscal policies like tax cuts and deregulation. Moreover, the manufacturing cycle might be in the early innings of a growth phase, so those are all positive macro factors for the stock.

Tesla, like Coinbase, Bitcoin and Dogecoin, have been the top beneficiaries of Trump’s victory given their direct connection to Trump. For now, there’s no real top in sight as we would likely need a contractionary monetary policy or a notable slowdown in the economy.

The risk going forward is the Fed. If the central bank starts to mention the need of more tightening, then we could see some big corrections in all risk assets. That day though looks to be at least a couple of months away for now.

TSLA Stock Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that TSLA broke above the resistance zone around the 270.00 level and exploded higher as Trump’s victory became clear. The stock is now trading around the 359.00 level in pre-market. The target should be the all-time high around the 414.50 level but that doesn’t mean it cannot break through and reach new highs.

TSLA Stock Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. That’s now far away from the current price and it’s unlikely that we will see a pullback into it in the near term unless we get a very hot US CPI report tomorrow.

If we do get there though, the buyers will likely lean on it to position for a rally into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower and below the previous resistance now turned support to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

TSLA Stock Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have another minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely keep on bidding the stock up with a defined risk below the trendline, while the sellers will look for a break lower to start targeting a pullback into the next trendline.

Upcoming Catalysts

This week is a bit empty on the data front with the most important releases scheduled for the latter part of the week. Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

Fundamental Overview

The puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might also be seeing some pre-positioning into a potentially hot US CPI report tomorrow.

At the latest Fed’s decision, Fed Chair Powell said that they expect bumps on inflation and that one or two bad data months on inflation won’t change the process. This keeps the 25 bps cut in December in place even if we get higher inflation readings.

The market though is forward-looking, and the rise in Treasury yields showed that the market sees risks to the inflation outlook. Moreover, the red sweep could increase those fears if the progress on inflation stalls, or worse, reverses.

On the GBP side, this morning we got the UK labour market report and although the data was mostly mixed, it leant more on the dovish side. Overall though, it didn’t change anything for the market or the BoE.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD broke through the support zone around the 1.2840 level and extended the drop as more sellers piled in. The natural target should be the swing low at 1.2665 level. That’s where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally back into the 1.28 handle.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the break of the support which was defining the range between the 1.2840 support and the 1.3040 resistance. If the price retests the support now turned resistance, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop into the 1.2665 level next. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to position for a rally back into the 1.3040 resistance.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. The sellers will likely keep on leaning on it to position for new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

This week is a bit empty on the data front with the most important releases scheduled for the latter part of the week. Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

Is Google Stock a Buy or Sell?

Hello, this is Itai Levitan at ForexLive.com. Today, I’m analyzing whether Google stock (Alphabet Inc.) is a buy or sell, and my take may surprise you. Unlike many who are looking to buy now, I’m approaching this with a lot more patience. In this update, I’ll walk you through my expert strategy based on precise technical analysis, which targets an entry at specific lower prices. Let’s dive in.

The Patient Approach: Wait for the Right Moment

Imagine you’re buying real estate: you wouldn’t rush to buy if prices were high; instead, you’d wait for a 20-25% correction before diving in. That’s precisely the mindset I’m applying to Google stock. While the market currently has Alphabet trading around $181 in the pre-market, my plan focuses on buying during a deeper dip if specific conditions align.

For those currently holding Alphabet shares, I’d be cautious. If the price reaches between $186 and $188.5, I would consider diluting my position or even selling a significant portion. The reward-to-risk ratio in this range may not justify holding. But my main focus here is not on where to sell but on where to buy.

Anchored View of Key Earnings Levels

I’ve anchored my technical analysis to three key earnings dates: October 24, 2022, January 30, 2023, and April 24, 2023. Each of these dates marked points where Google stock consolidated before a strong upward move. These are essential reference points because they show where major buyers entered, likely including institutions and insiders who had a solid long-term outlook. The anchored VWAPs from these dates provide an orientation for where support may lie, but they are not definitive buy triggers. I’m clearing these lines from the chart to avoid confusion.

The Dip Buying Plan

I’ve set up a structured dip-buying plan with four pre-prepared limit orders at specific technical levels. Here’s the breakdown:

1. First Buy Order at $158.53 – Initial X amount of shares purchased.
2. Second Buy Order at $153.06 – Doubling the initial share quantity (2X).
3. Third Buy Order at $140.79 – Tripling the initial amount (3X).
4. Fourth Buy Order at $137.42 – Quintuple the original quantity (5X).

By following a Fibonacci-inspired scaling, each buy increases in size, creating a weighted average entry price of $143.10 if all orders are filled. This disciplined approach allows for capturing a better entry price while managing risk effectively.

Risk Management: Stop Loss and Profit Target

Once the final buy order at $137.42 is filled, I’ll set a 5% stop loss at $135.95. The goal is not just to protect capital but to control potential downside if the market moves against me.

On the profit side, my target is a 35% increase from the average entry price, aiming for $193.10 per share. This setup offers a 7:1 reward-to-risk ratio—an attractive profile for a patient, disciplined trader. If only some of the buy orders are filled, the average entry price will be slightly higher, but this can still yield a strong return.

Flexibility with Profit Taking

Although my final target is $193, flexibility is essential. For instance, if three of the four buy orders are filled and the price begins to rise, I may opt to take partial profits along the way, mitigating risk and locking in gains. This adaptability allows for adjustments based on market conditions and evolving technical signals.

Why Patience Pays Off

This isn’t about reacting to the latest market move or speculation. It’s about waiting for the right setup and not feeling pressured to jump in too early. I’m not concerned with immediate market trends, potential new all-time highs, or the impact of macro events like the "Trump effect" or other news. This plan is grounded in sound technical analysis, targeting precise entry points and disciplined risk management.

Key Takeaway: If Google stock dips to my target prices, I’m ready to buy. However, if the price doesn’t reach these levels, I may miss out—but that’s part of my strategy. I’d rather miss an opportunity than enter at the wrong price, compromising the risk-reward balance.

Closing Thoughts

Is Google stock a buy or sell? For me, it’s a buy, but only if it meets my conditions. I know targeting an entry at $143.10 may seem extreme, but often, patience and discipline deliver the best results. This method allows for a 5% risk with a potential 35% gain, translating into a high reward-to-risk ratio. Remember to set your orders in advance; you don’t want to chase the market when it hits these levels, as high-frequency algorithms can drive the price up quickly, making it difficult to achieve your planned entry.

Buy or sell Google stock at your own risk. Visit ForexLive.com for more expert insights, and thank you for following along.

As the North American session begins, the bond traders return after a day off in observance of Veterans Day. Yields are higher to start their trading week with the 2 year up 6.5 basis points at 4.319% and the 10 year up 6.3 basis points at 4.371%. The 2 year yield has moved to a new high going back to July 31 today (4.336%). For the 10 year, it traded as high as 4.773% last week, but fell into Friday with the low reaching 4.558% before bouncing modestly on Friday. That upside has reached 4.64% today - off the low but below the high from last week.

Bitcoin moved to a high of $89,983 today - a new record - but has come off and trades at $86,430 currently. The low reached $85208 today in volatile trading.

Oil is higher after falling over 3% lower yesterday. The price is up 43% or 0.64% at $68.52 currently. The high reached $68.76 and a low at $67.78.

Gold is down another $11 or -.045% at $2607.28. The low reached $2589.80 before bouncing.

In the US stock market, the major indices are marginally higher after record closes across the three major indices. The Russell 2000 which has not reached a high since July 2021 got within shouting distance of it record at 2437.08. The high yesterday reached 2441.72. The Dow futures are imploring a gain of 78 points. The S&P is up 1.65 points and the Nasdaq index is now up 7.91 points.

There will be several Fed speakers today with Governor Waller, Minneapolis Fed Pres. Kashkari, Philadelphia Fed Pres. Parker, and Richmond Fed Pres. Barkin all scheduled to speak

ECB policymaker Olli Rehn emphasized that while the direction of the ECB’s monetary policy is clear, the pace of any changes will be data-dependent. The economic outlook, impacted by a struggling manufacturing sector, has deteriorated. Rehn suggested that if disinflation continues, it could support additional rate cuts, with the ECB potentially moving away from restrictive policy territory by spring 2025. He warned against protectionism, noting that tariffs would have a medium-to-long-term impact and are inherently inflationary. With growth in the euro area expected to remain sluggish and downside risks prevalent, Rehn awaits the December projections for a clearer assessment of the economic landscape.

EURUSD: The selling in the EURUSD continue as a less friendly US with Pres. Elect Trump, spell slower growth with increased tariffs the concern. Technically, the price initially moved higher in the Asian session but found willing sellers near the low of the swing area between 1.0663 and 1.06703. That was swing lows in June 2024. Staying below kept the sellers in control, and they pushed lower. The price has since moved down to a low of 1.0606 which tests the lows from April when a series of swing lows bottomed the pair. Those levels are also the lows for the year (going back to October 2023).

USDJPY: The USDJPY rose yesterday and then stalled in the US session between 153.59 to 153.88 (swing area). Recall, the 153.88 level was a swing high from July 31. The highs from October 28 and October 29 was at 153.88 too. Today, the price moved lower and below the swing area low, BUT found support at the 61.8% of the move down from the July high. That level comes in at 153.397. Going forward, that hold increases that technical levels importance as support. Move below would increase the bearish bias in the short term at least.

On the topside, the price has now moved back above the 153.88 level (bullish). If the price can stay above that level now, that would be the most bullish technical scenario as buyers show their strength on the break. On the topside, the 154.54 up to 155.09 would be the next target area to stretch towards. Get above that area over time, and it adds to the bullish bias. Buyers making a play. Can they keep the momentum going?

GBPUSD:The GBPUSD fell below the lows from the last 2 weeks (last week low was at 1.28329) and sellers jumped, pushing the price through the 200 day MA at 1.28178. The breaks are more bearish and the low price reached 1.27915 and has bounced. The price has traded above and below the 200-day MA at 1.28179, but has so far stayed below the low from last week at 1.28329. If the price moves back above that level and momentum back to the upside is able to get above 1.2844 and the 50% of the move up from the April low at 1.2866, the buyers are showing some strength and the sellers will start worrying about the failures more and more. Conversely, if the price can stay below the 1.2832 and 1.2844 that keeps the sellers confidence high, but gettng below the 200-day MA is still required again. The price is currently trading near the 200-day MA but remains below 1.28329.

USDCHF: The USDCHF extended above the 200 day MA at 0.88176 and also a swing area from 0.88187 to 0.8825. That was a bullish move and the price moved to a high of 0.88303 but failed. The price is back below the 200 day MA and swing area. The price is trading near 0.8800 (0.8802 is the low). ON the downside the 50% is at 0.87986. If that is broken, then the swing area, the 200 day MA and the 50% failed. That should give buyers cause for pause as the buyers had their shot, and they missed. But the price still needs to get below 50%.

In the kickstart video, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs:

EUR/USD Summary

The EUR/USD continued its downward trend due to concerns over slower economic growth and increased tariffs under President-elect Trump.

Key Points:

• Initially rose in the Asian session, but sellers took control near 1.0665-1.06703 swing area. That area was the lows from back in June.

• Staying below the lows from June kept the sellers in control

• Reached a low of 1.0606, testing April's swing lows and the year's lows (since October 2023). A move below the 1.0600 increases the bearish bias.

• Buyers may lean against the low as risk can be defined and limited against the level with stops on a break below.

-------------------------------------------

USD/JPY Summary

The USD/JPY exhibited volatility, with potential bullish signals.

Key Points:

1. Rose yesterday, then stalled between 153.59-153.88 (swing area).

2. Found support at 153.397 (61.8% of July's move down).

3. Broke above 153.88 (bullish signal).

4. Next targets: 154.54-155.09.

Outlook:

Bullish Scenario

Stay above 153.88, targeting 154.54-155.09.

Bearish Scenario

Move below 153.397 increases short-term bearish bias.

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GBP/USD Summary

The GBP/USD fell, breaking below two-week lows and the 200-day MA.

Key Points:

1. Broke below last week's low (1.28329) and 200-day MA (1.28178).

2. Reached 1.27915, then bounced.

3. Traded above and below 200-day MA.

Outlook:

Bullish Scenario

Move above 1.28329, 1.2844, and 1.2866 (50% of April's move) indicates buyer strength.

Bearish Scenario

Stay below 1.28329 and 1.2844 maintains seller confidence; breaking below 200-day MA again confirms bearish trend.

The USDCAD moved higher in the Asian session and extended above the highs over the last few weeks between 1.3945 and 1.3958. The high price extended to 1.39664 but fell short of the 2022 high which came in at 1.3977.

The inability to move higher turn the buyers to sellers, and the price has rotated back down toward the close from yesterday's trade where buyers have stalled the fall.

On the downside, the next major target comes against the rising 100 and 200 hour moving averages between 1.3908 and 1.3911. It would take a move below that area to increase the bearish bias with the 100 bar moving average on a four hour chart the next downside target at 1.38868.

On the top side, getting back above 1.3945 and 1.3958 would have traders looking again toward the 2022 high at 1.3977. Get above that level opens the door for further upside potential.

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USDCAD Summary

The USDCAD rose in the Asian session, approaching 2022 highs.

Key Points:

1. Broke above recent highs (1.3945-1.3958).

2. Reached 1.39664, shy of 2022 high (1.3977).

3. Buyers turned sellers, and the price fell.

Outlook:

Bullish Scenario

Move above 1.3945, 1.3958, and 1.3977 confirms further upside.

Bearish Scenario

Break below 1.3908-1.3911 (100/200-hour MA) and 1.38868 (100-bar MA) increases bearish bias.

Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 1.3945, 1.3958, 1.3977

• Support: 1.3908, 1.3911, 1.38868

Hello, this is Itai Levitan at ForexLive.com. Today, I’m diving into Natural Gas Futures (NG), which are trading around 2.92 as of yesterday's close. This analysis will be relevant to those of you looking at CFDs, futures themselves, or stocks related to natural gas. Here’s a detailed view of my approach:

Natural Gas Futures Overview

Currently, we’re seeing Natural Gas Futures in a significant channel on the weekly time frame. There’s potential for a bullish breakout from a large bull flag formation, highlighted by the recent piercing through the upper edge of this channel. However, we’re still in uncertain territory—it’s possible the price may reverse back down, retesting the flag before making any decisive move.

Dip Buying Extreme Targeting

I’m looking closely at the potential for an extreme dip buying opportunity in natural gas. When I say “extreme dip buying,” I’m talking about setting up a longer-term, strategic plan that goes beyond typical levels. Instead of just waiting for an undefined "deep drop," I'm identifying specific price levels that could offer remarkable buying opportunities if the market hits them.

Long-Term Support Levels to Watch

Here’s what I'm focusing on for a deeper dip buy:

1. 1.612 (Low of 2016) – This level may present an attractive medium-term long position, suitable for swing trades.
2. 1.44 (Low of 2020) – Similar to 1.612, this level could offer a profitable swing opportunity, though not necessarily for a prolonged hold.

While these are appealing points for shorter-term trades, I recommend partial profit-taking here to mitigate risk if the price reverses sharply.

Generational Low Opportunity at 1.25

For the patient, long-term investors, my primary area of interest lies around 1.25—the historic low from 1995, nearly 30 years ago. This level represents a “generational low,” providing a triple layer of support:

• The lower bound of the channel.
• The major, longer-term channel trendline.
• The historic 1.25 support level from 1995.

If natural gas reaches this area, it could be a highly attractive long-term buy. I suggest setting several buy orders around 1.25 to capture a position here and holding for substantial potential upside. Patience will be key—having some trading capital reserved for this area could be a game-changing strategy.

The Ultimate Extreme at 1.04

If something drastic occurs and the price reaches 1.04, the all-time low from the 1990s, it would represent a multi-generational low. This level would likely attract significant buying interest from funds, institutions, and individual investors. Similar to the parity level we saw with EUR/USD, this psychological round number could spur major accumulation and serve as an unparalleled buying opportunity.

Summary and Final Thoughts on Natural Gas and Exteme Dip Buying

In summary:

• Stay Patient: This strategy involves waiting for rare, extreme dip-buying levels.
• Allocate Capital Strategically: Save some ammunition for these lower levels, where the upside potential is considerable.
• Monitor Support Levels Closely: Levels like 1.25 and 1.04 represent deeply discounted entry points that could yield long-term gains.

Follow ForexLive.com for additional insights for investors and traders, and let’s keep an eye on these setups. Extreme opportunities don’t come often, so be prepared and thank me later!

The AUDUSD has moved lower to a swing area low at 0.65357. The high of the swing area comes in at 0.65537. It would take a move above that level and then the 61.8% at 0.6575, to give the buyers more confidence and cause the sellers to have some cause for pause.

ON the downside, a break of 0.6535 would target the low from last weekend 0.6511. That is near the last two session lows going back to early August. oh below that level and traders look toward 0.6463 to 0.6486.

The price action last week in the AUDUSD was up and down with big moves in either direction.Through the first two days of this week, volatility is less, but the bias is more to the downside. That bias would be even more bearish if the 0.6535 level can be broken along with the low price from last week at 0.6511.

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AUD/USD Summary

The AUD/USD fell to a swing area low at 0.65357.

Key Points:

1. Swing area: 0.65357 (low) - 0.65537 (high).

2. Buyers need a break above 0.65537 and 0.6575 (61.8% level).

3. Sellers target last weekend's low: 0.6511.

Outlook:

Bullish Scenario

Move above 0.65537 and 0.6575 boosts buyer confidence.

Bearish Scenario

Break below 0.6535 and 0.6511 confirms bearish bias, targeting 0.6463-0.6486.

Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 0.65537, 0.6575

• Support: 0.65357, 0.6511, 0.6463-0.6486

The EURUSD is pushing against its 2024 low at 1.0601. A break below that level would open the door for further downside momentum. A move to new laws would take the price to the lowest level since November 2, 2023.

There is not a lot support technically until a swing area near 1.05158 and 1.05316.

The USD is moving higher.

• The EURUSD is against the 2024 low at 1.0600.
• The USDJPY is trading to new highs and has entered into a swing area between 154.54 in 155.09. The high price last week reached 154.704 and is the next upside target.

For the GBPUSD it is trading to new lows and moving away from it's broken 200 day moving average at 1.28178 broken earlier today. A new low is being made as I type at 1.27347.

That low is just above the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the April 2024 low at 1.27322. Break below that retracement level and traders will be looking toward a swing area between 1.2665 and 1.2685 as seller add to their run to the downside.

If buyers lean against the retracement level and move higher, getting back above 1.2777 is needed for the buyers to have some comfort for more upside probing. Absent that and the sellers are more in control.

Ultimately, a move back above the 200-day moving average at 1.28178 is needed to scare the sellers into buying.

Sellers are pushing, but the 61.8% retracement is now in the way and being tested. Will profit takers enter here against the risk defining level or will the sellers make another push to the downside?

The USDJPY is extending to a new session high after testing is 61.8% retracement earlier in the day at 153.397 and finding willing buyers.

The market to the upside has now taken the price to a high of 154.75. That has extended above the high price from last week at 154.704. The buyers are making a play.

The swing high going back to July 30 came in at 155.21, and that becomes the next key target on the topside for the pair.

The high yield close for the 10-year note last week reached 4.433%. The current yield is currently at 4.4315%, up 12.3 basis points. A close above would be the highest close going back to July 1, 2024 when the close came in at 4.465%.

The USDCHF has moved up to a high of 0.88357. That is just short of a high swing area on the daily chart above at 0.88379. Get above that level and stay above, opens the door for more upside momentum.

ON the downside, the closest risk is the 200 day MA, but more conservative risk would be the 50% of the move down from the May high at 0.87986. I would think that short term traders seeing a move above the 50% and the 200 day MA would want to see both those technical levels remain broken.

If not, there could be some disappointment on the failed break and more downside corrective probing.

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