world news Gregory McMichael worked in local law enforcement for over 30 years and previously investigated Ahmaud Arbery By news.yahoo.com Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 10:06:54 -0400 Gregory McMichael and his son, Travis, were charged with murder and aggravated assault in relation to the shooting death of Ahmaud Arbery in February. Full Article
world news ‘A Start Towards Victory’: Gregory and Travis McMichael Charged With Murder of Ahmaud Arbery By news.yahoo.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 20:31:50 -0400 SAVANNAH—Gregory and Travis McMichael have been arrested and charged with murder and aggravated assault in connection with the February killing of Ahmaud Arbery, the Georgia Bureau of Investigation announced Thursday. According to police, the white father and son, 64 and 34, chased Arbery, a 25-year-old black man, after he ran by Travis McMichael’s home in the Satilla Shores neighborhood of Brunswick on Feb. 23. He was unarmed and jogging at the time. “This is a start towards victory,” Thea Brooks, Arbery’s aunt, told The Daily Beast on Thursday. “This only the beginning though, but this is what we were all hoping for.”The McMichaels said they believed Arbery was a burglar responsible for a series of break-ins in their neighborhood and that they pursued him in their pickup truck while armed with a shotgun and a .357 magnum. The GBI alleges the McMichaels confronted Arbery, and that Travis shot him. A local prosecutor previously indicated a third man, William Bryan, took part in the chase and filmed the incident.‘It’s Murder’: This Shooting of an Unarmed Black Man Is Roiling GeorgiaAt least two shots hit the 25-year-old, the Glynn County Coroner’s Office told The Daily Beast last week.Video that Brooks said depicted her nephew’s death elicited a furious reaction nationwide, and residents of the area protested the initial failure to prosecute a case on Tuesday.“It’s murder. It’s heartbreaking to even look at. The whole city has seen it,” Brooks told The Daily Beast after the video was released this week.The Georgia NAACP echoed her words in a Thursday response to the McMichaels’ arrest: “The murderers of Ahmaud Arbery have been arrested.”Gregory McMichael, a former cop and investigator with a local prosecutor’s office, previously told The Daily Beast he “never would have gone after someone for their color.” He also said the “closest version of the truth” about the incident was captured in a letter effectively clearing him and his son that was written by a prosecutor who recused himself from the case, George Barnhill. McMichael also admitted he had no direct evidence that Arbery was a thief. “But he’s the guy who’s there without permission,” he said from behind the closed front door of his son’s home.The owner of an unfinished home just down the street from Travis McMichael's home, Larry English, told The Daily Beast earlier this week that he had surveillance footage that appeared to show Arbery stopping to look at the foundation of his still-under-construction home. While Gregory McMichael claimed to police that Arbery had been caught on surveillance video, it was not immediately clear what video he was referring to. English told The Daily Beast he had no knowledge of the McMichaels seeing his surveillance footage. McMichael’s ties to law enforcement helped fuel a haze of suspicion around the killing from the beginning. Barnhill was one of two area prosecutors who looked into the incident before recusing themselves. A third prosecutor—District Attorney Tom Durden—sought a GBI probe ahead of the arrests this week.Read more at The Daily Beast.Got a tip? Send it to The Daily Beast hereGet our top stories in your inbox every day. Sign up now!Daily Beast Membership: Beast Inside goes deeper on the stories that matter to you. Learn more. Full Article
world news 'No one should feel completely safe': what experts think of California's reopening plan By news.yahoo.com Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 06:00:24 -0400 As businesses slowly reopen, experts warn that social distancing may need to be dialed back up: ‘It’s not an on-off switch’ * Coronavirus – latest US updates * Coronavirus – latest global updatesSome California businesses on Friday began opening their doors for business – at least partially.As states and counties across the nation contend with pressure to lift the stay-at-home measures that have destroyed local economies, California is taking an especially cautious approach, walking a fine line between political and economic pressure to reopen and the public health imperative to stop the spread of disease.Public health experts told the Guardian that while no US state was equipped with enough coronavirus testing and surveillance to feel fully confident reopening, California’s slow, piecemeal recovery plan – though far from perfect – seemed like the least risky option. The planSeven weeks after the governor, Gavin Newsom, ordered his 40 million constituents to shelter in place and all non-essential businesses to close, California on Friday entered phase two of its grand reopening plan.Some retail stores, including bookshops, florists, music stores, clothing and sporting goods retailers, can reopen if they organize curbside pickup. Some manufacturing and logistics in the retail supply chain can restart as well, as long as they follow safety and hygiene protocols. And local authorities are allowed to ease regulations further than the state guidelines if they meet certain testing and sanitation requirements.Phase three of the plan – potentially months away – could see salons, gyms, movie theaters and in-person church services resume. Phase four would end all restrictions. The timingFriday’s reopenings come as California has avoided the surge of infections states like New York have seen. And although California has seen more than 61,000 cases and 2,500 deaths, its hospitals have not been overwhelmed.Last week, state officials reported the first week-over-week decline in Covid-19 deaths.The new guidelines also follow small but sustained protests across the state to demand a relaxation of regulations to revive the state’s crippled economy, and some rural counties have partially reopened in defiance of the lockdown measures. The caveatsHowever, California still hasn’t seen the two weeks of declining cases that the White House suggested as a criterion for easing restrictions and that several European countries have used as a benchmark.The state also lacks the robust testing and tracking systems that countries such as Germany and South Korea have used.The state has ramped up its ability to administer and process tests, although for now, its rate of 29,414 tests a day is below the figure required by some analyses.Authorities are working to put a robust contact tracing effort in place to make sure those who test positive get the care they need and are able to isolate themselves until they recover. Although some counties and communities have spearheaded community-wide testing and tracing programs, overall, the state isn’t at the point where its system is as widespread or efficient as a country like Germany’s.Experts say California should also have a system in place to make sure vulnerable, unhoused populations have access to shelter and medical care – to prevent infection flare-ups in homeless shelters and encampments. Progress on those measures heavily varies county by county.And ideally, there would be a treatment or a vaccine before reopening, said Dr Richard Jackson, a professor emeritus at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health and the former head of the California department of public health. While we await a cure, Jackson cautioned, “no one should feel completely safe as we remove restrictions.” The trade-offsCalifornia’s reopening strategy stands in sharp contrast to the approach of states like Georgia, which suddenly allowed gyms, barber shops, hair salons, tattoo parlors and bowling alleys to welcome customers last week.“What certain places have done, where they’ve just thrown open the doors and said, ‘OK, we don’t have to keep our distance any more,’ is a colossal mistake,” Jackson said. Reopening businesses that put lots of people into close contact and speed the spread of disease will reverse the success of shelter-in-place rules, he noted, and overwhelm hospitals as cases surge. “Doing it very cautiously and carefully does make sense at this point in time,” he said.“I get that governors have to balance the public health goals with the economic goals,” said Dr Robert Tsai, surgeon and health policy researcher at Brigham and Women’s hospital in Boston and the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. “But this stage of the pandemic is really all about trade-offs,” he noted. The weeks aheadIn the coming weeks, state and local leaders will have to watch closely and prepare to dial the distancing back up if the number of cases surges, said Tsai.“Social distancing isn’t an on-off switch. What it needs to be is a dial, which can be turned up or down depending on what the data show on the ground in terms of how the Covid-19 epidemic is progressing.“Reopening is going to be a very complicated process, and it should be complicated,” he added. “Because this is about making sure that people don’t end up in the hospital or dying.”That California’s plan allows for counties to maintain stricter distancing guidelines or ease up measures could be both a strength and a liability.The flexibility has allowed hotspots like the Bay Area and Los Angeles to take a more cautious approach, but it has also already caused confusion. In San Diego, where curbside shopping has already begun, business owners were unsure what, if anything, would change on Friday. In Bakersfield, restaurants allowed patrons to dine in on Monday and Tuesday, in defiance of the state’s guidelines.A hodgepodge reopening could cause surges in cases; Californians who travel between more lax and more strict counties could spread infections. Moreover, a rush to reopen fast in some areas could be counterproductive to economic recovery, said Alessandro Rebucci, an economist at the Johns Hopkins Carey School of Business.“If you reopen when the pandemic is still out there, people and businesses will not just go back to normal,” Rebucci noted. Based on research from China, it seems clear that fear of contracting the illness will keep businesses owners and patrons home until they feel it’s safe enough, he said. Full Article
world news Reopened restaurant tells workers: Don't wear face masks — or don't work By news.yahoo.com Published On :: Sat, 09 May 2020 07:51:42 -0400 Restaurant workers in a reopened Dallas eatery say they are being asked to weigh their safety against their jobs. Full Article
world news Can you reuse a disposable mask? Yes, if you follow these steps By news.yahoo.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 15:22:00 -0400 Disposable masks can be used more than once, but it's important to make sure the mask isn't carrying coronavirus. Full Article
world news Russian hackers accessed emails from Merkel's constituency office: Der Spiegel By news.yahoo.com Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 05:03:33 -0400 Russia's GRU military intelligence service appears to have got hold of many emails from Chancellor Angela Merkel's constituency office in a 2015 hack attack on Germany's parliament, Der Spiegel magazine reported on Friday, without citing its sources. A spokesman for the German government had no immediate comment. Der Spiegel said federal criminal police and the federal cyber agency had been able to partially reconstruct the attack and found that two email inboxes from Merkel's office had been targeted. Full Article
world news D’Angel raises J$225,000 from online charity concert By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Tue, 05 May 2020 05:01:17 -0500 The Lady of Dancehall, D'Angel, says although her COVID-19 Relief Concert did not meet its US$200,000 target, she is overwhelmed by the support. The event, held via Instagram Live last Friday, saw performances from the likes of Beenie Man, G... Full Article
world news Shenseea to collab with Nicki Minaj? By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Tue, 05 May 2020 05:01:33 -0500 A single tweet on the weekend about a possible collaboration between dancehall princess Shenseea and US rap sensation Nicki Minaj has left fans of the Romeich Entertainment singer bursting with excitement. Rumours of a pending project between... Full Article
world news Content creators being left out - Online fun and frolic but no royalties By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Tue, 05 May 2020 05:01:38 -0500 As online parties continue to rise, the question of how artistes and other musicians will get paid from these virtual sessions becomes even more pertinent. During an online forum held by the Jamaica Reggae Industry Association (JaRIA) yesterday... Full Article
world news Kaay Jones: The Jamaican who joins region in singing ‘We Got This’ By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Wed, 06 May 2020 05:01:07 -0500 Up-and-coming recording artiste Kaay Jones says she did not know she was becoming part of a transformational music project that would connect her to a wide cross section of talent in the Caribbean. Jones carries Jamaica's flag in a unified... Full Article
world news Violence is not the answer - Dexta Daps’ new single spurs conversation on domestic abuse By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Wed, 06 May 2020 05:01:37 -0500 Hours after he was released from police lock-up last week, dancehall artiste Dexta Daps dropped some new music on his eager fans. The track, Breaking News, explores an all-too-familiar domestic violence storyline, but incorporates a controversial... Full Article
world news Entertainment On The Go By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 05:01:03 -0500 DJ Mackwan aims to be an ace DJ Jonathan McKenzie, better known as DJ Mackwan, is on a path to music superstardom with his bold and fresh take as the remix DJ. He said, "When I am playing I incorporate a lot of remixes and try to use music to... Full Article
world news Shav-A sees positives despite COVID By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 05:01:16 -0500 Up-and-coming entertainer Shav-A says the COVID-19 pandemic made her reflect on her life. "I needed a reset. With all this downtime, I have realised that I needed to stop and rethink a lot of things that are going on in my life, and it also... Full Article
world news It’s SumeRR in Spain By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 05:01:13 -0500 Most of Europe may be on lockdown, but there is still reason to look forward to SumeRR, in Spain. Originally from Jamaica, the singer relocated to the European country three years ago, chasing love and record deal dreams. The dreams came true,... Full Article
world news Daniiboo releases ‘Drop It N Pop It’ By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 05:01:14 -0500 Known for her creative dance moves and twerking style, dancer-turned-artiste Daniiboo dropped a new twerking song, titled ' Drop It N Pop It', in an attempt to put a smile on her fans' faces in a time of unprecedented uncertainty. The song is... Full Article
world news NotNice delivers star-studded, uplifting track By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 05:01:29 -0500 Imagine some of your favourite artistes on one song, offering up messages of encouragement and upliftment. Well, that is the concept behind the latest track from Billboard-charting producer NotNice. Dubbed We Are, the song features vocals from... Full Article
world news Comedians to provide ‘COVID’ relief By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 05:01:30 -0500 Comedians Over Viruses and Infectious Diseases (COVID) is the message behind the latest project from comedian duo Ity and Fancy Cat. Recognising that stress levels are on the rise due to the effects of the... Full Article
world news People just wah hear sumpn different - Govana finds captive audience as ‘Convo Pt 2’ hits a million views By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 05:01:23 -0500 Back in January when dancehall artiste Govana released the track HAMANTS Convo, the storyline captivated listeners across the globe. For weeks, the song, which highlights infidelity in relationships, trended at number one on the local YouTube... Full Article
world news Stylysh revives IG show By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 05:01:34 -0500 Dancehall artiste Stylysh is set to restart her Instagram (IG) show, which is centred around love, sex, and relationships. Last season's guests included the likes of Shauna Chin, Destiny Sparta, and Gaza Sheba, who spoke candidly of her sexual... Full Article
world news ‘Cool Runnings’ By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 05:02:08 -0500 Ja wowed Winter Games in 1988 ... Page 20 Full Article
world news Buju Banton and John Legend create magical ‘Memories’ By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 05:01:48 -0500 Closing 2019, reggae star Buju Banton celebrated the inking of a partnership deal with international entertainment group Roc Nation, founded by rapper Jay-Z. The artiste is on the promotional pathway for his 2020 album, Upside Down, which will be... Full Article
world news Bad Gyal Jade gets boost from Bounty endorsement By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 05:01:50 -0500 In an interview with THE STAR last August, up-and-coming artiste Bad Gyal Jade dubbed herself the 'female Kartel'. Drawing comparisons between her style and flow and that of the incarcerated deejay, Jade said the label was a fitting one. Though... Full Article
world news Gospel Spotlight: Gospel Song winner explores ‘Excess Love’ By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 05:01:44 -0500 E xcess Love, a song by Nigerian gospel artiste Mercy Chinwo, has found favour with both Christians and non-Christians alike and has been flooding the airwaves since last year. Joanna Walker, the Jamaica Cultural Development Commission's (JCDC)... Full Article
world news Dancers' Paradise: Devon Unruly working hard to expand dance group By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 05:01:38 -0500 He's celebrating 10 years of dancing both competitively and in the street, and the co-founder of Unruly Skankaz, Devon Brown, says he is looking to expand the brand. The once three-member male dance group has grown to five, he told THE WEEKEND... Full Article
world news Weh Dem Up To | Natel still making the hits By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 05:01:42 -0500 Many may remember Natel from the Digicel Rising Stars competition back in 2005. The singer was a runner-up that year and has been working to set himself apart in the music industry ever since. It has been 15 years, and although his name may not be... Full Article
world news What about entertainment? - Industry insider feels sector under-represented in COVID recovery task force By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 05:01:40 -0500 Last month, Prime Minister Andrew Holness announced the establishment of an Economic Recovery Task Force, chaired by Finance Minister Dr Nigel Clarke. The multisectoral task force, which is mandated to oversee Jamaica's economic recovery from... Full Article
world news JCF distribute PSOJ COVID-19 food packages By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 17:32:28 -0500 Members of the Jamaica Constabulary Force on Thursday, distributed more than 300 food packages to individuals and families impacted by COVID-19 in St. James, under the Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica (PSOJ)-led COVID-19 Response Fund... Full Article
world news Man arrested in connection with West Kingston shooting By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 16:17:59 -0500 A man has been arrested in connection with the “vile and brutal” murders of 8-year-old Toya Brown and 15-year-old Nyron Taylor, who were shot and killed last evening, revealed Minister of National Security, Dr. Horace Chang. Chang says... Full Article
world news 488 confirmed COVID-19 cases in Jamaica By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 18:37:50 -0500 The Ministry of Health and Wellness has reported ten new positive COVID-19 test results, pushing the tally of confirmed cases to 488. Among the ten new cases, eight are females, and two are males. Their ages range from four years to 39-years-... Full Article
world news Diary of an inmate By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 05:01:05 -0500 Dear Diary, I've been a long-time reader. Well, I have been in the Department of Correction for four years now. I was in the county jail for four years, too. My family in Jamaica doesn't even know that I am alive. I want to know how they are... Full Article
world news J’can healthcare worker dies from COVID-19-related complications By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 05:01:09 -0500 Antoniette Bryden has fond memories of her mother, Arlene Reid, 51, a healthcare worker originally from Yallahs, St Thomas, who died of COVID-19 in Brampton, Ontario, Canada, on April 27. Reid, a personal support worker (PSW) who worked part-time... Full Article
world news ‘Rise together’ By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 05:01:41 -0500 The COVID-19 pandemic has created a disruptive new normal for all of us, including thousands of urban and rural poor. Let's emerge into a place where the vulnerable are not so affected by social inequality, and rise together to create a world that'... Full Article
world news Bars may have to remove stools and tables - Holness hints at measures that could accompany reopening of pubs By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 05:01:26 -0500 It is possible that the next time you walk into a bar you may find that there is only standing room, and you are among a handful of persons allowed inside. Prime Minister Andrew Holness said that in addition to having a specific gathering rule,... Full Article
world news Bartender finds the going very tough By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 05:01:24 -0500 Having to witness your child go off to bed without a meal is not the most pleasing experience for a parent. However, this is the reality of Viviene Francis, who was laid off from her job as a bartender. Francis, who is a single mother, told THE... Full Article
world news Dry pipes worry Love Street By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 05:01:11 -0500 Residents of Love Street, a section of Jones Town in Kington, say the area has been suffering from a chronic water shortage for more than two months. Daniesha Taylor, who has lived in the community for 30 years, is fearful that the lack of water... Full Article
world news Diabetics, asthma sufferers urged to take extra COVID caution By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 05:01:36 -0500 Persons with diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and conditions such as high blood pressure and asthma are being urged to be particularly careful as those comorbidities have been identified in persons with COVID-19 in Jamaica requiring hospital care... Full Article
world news It’s becoming depressing - Mother enduring long wait for newborn’s coronavirus results By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 05:01:40 -0500 A Manchester mother is pleading with the authorities to provide her with the results of COVID-19 tests done on her and her week-old baby. The woman claims that she has been in isolation in hospital since April 27, a day after she gave birth to... Full Article
world news It felt like prison - Cruise ship worker happy to be home By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 05:01:43 -0500 "It felt like prison." Those are the exact words of Jermaine who returned to the island yesterday after he was stranded on a cruise ship for 56 days in South Hampton, United Kingdom. "Bwoy we are out of prison ... it was rough mentally. They... Full Article
world news Children, 15 and 8-y-o, killed by thugs By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 05:01:37 -0500 Screams of anguish pierced the air last night as police tried to secure forensic evidence in sections of Dumfries Street in Denham Town, west Kingston, following the killing of an eight-year-old girl by gunmen earlier in the afternoon. "Jesus... Full Article
world news Small business owner looks for silver lining By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 05:01:52 -0500 Deborah Fearon is a bar owner who also has a small chicken business. She depends on both for a living. Before the COVID-19 outbreak she was doing well, and had plans of completing her house this year. However, she has been hit hard by the economic... Full Article
world news Starscope By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 05:01:24 -0500 GLEANER HOROSCOPE MAY 8 2020 WHAT TO DO AND WHEN TO DO IT Entertainment and romance...................14th Domestic and family matters.................13th Bargain hunting and shopping................10th Selling... Full Article
world news Chic on Sticks going the extra mile for persons with disabilities By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 05:01:59 -0500 Her voice cracked as she related the story of a man with disabilities who lost his wife and whose child has had to drop out of school because he has no money. All he has is Bridgette Johnson, a fellow disabled person who has dedicated her life... Full Article
world news MoBay residents flock COVID ‘giveaway truck’ By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 05:02:14 -0500 Despite being placed under strict restrictions and COVID-19 curfew measures, shoppers, commuters, motorists, and vendors in Montego Bay got a feel of Christmas on Wednesday, when they were showered with items as part of the COVID-19 giveaway by an... Full Article
world news Man killed by block-making machine By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 05:02:04 -0500 A father is questioning the circumstances that led to the death of his 20-year-old son, Romell Forbes, at a Manchester Avenue-based hardware in May Pen, Clarendon, on Wednesday. Superintendent Christopher Philips, in charge of operations for the... Full Article
world news Fitness freak promotes sperm smoothie By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 05:01:30 -0500 Eyes popped and mouths dropped wide open this week when it was reported in this newspaper that a British woman is using sperm smoothies to build her immune system. Tracy Kiss, 32, said she takes the sperm straight from the source - her boyfriend... Full Article
world news COVID prank nearly kills St Mary man By jamaica-star.com Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 05:02:09 -0500 A practical joke gone too far caused a St Mary resident, Byron Wilson, to burst into tears after he received a phone call from one of his mischievous friends telling him that he may be a carrier of the novel coronavirus. "A dead mi dead right... Full Article
world news Iran Crisis: The Impact on Oil Markets By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 14 Jan 2020 09:00:23 +0000 14 January 2020 Professor Paul Stevens Distinguished Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme The assassination of Qassem Soleimani has exacerbated the sensitivity of oil markets to political events and brought geopolitics back into global oil prices. 2020-01-14-Hormuz.jpg Satellite image of the Strait of Hormuz. Photo: Getty Images. The assassination of General Qassem Soleimani has created much speculation about the possible impact on oil markets and – although any impact will very much depend upon what happens next in terms of political and military responses – theoretically the potential exists for Iran to seriously destabilize oil markets, raising oil prices.Arguably, it would be in Iran’s interest to do so. It would certainly hurt Trump’s possibility of a second term if higher prices were to last for some time as the 2020 presidential election gets underway. And it would also help shore up Iran’s failing economy. The assassination did initially cause oil prices to rise by a few dollars before quickly falling back, and the missile attacks by Iran produced a similar response. However, direct action by Iran to raise prices – for example by trying to close the Strait of Hormuz – is unlikely.Around one-fifth of the world's oil supplies passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow choke point between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula. Closing it would invite serious military action by the Americans and many of its allies who, so far, have been rather lukewarm over Trump’s actions. It would also possibly limit Iran’s own oil exports.Similarly, overt attacks on American allies in the region such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE would probably invite too heavy a reaction, although this is uncertain given the lack of response after the alleged Iranian attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais in mid-September.Indirect action by Iran to affect oil supplies is much more likely as they have many options by using their proxies to affect others’ oil production. This is especially true for Iraq, which is now an important source of global oil supply as Iraqi exports in 2019 averaged 3.53 million barrels per day (Mb/d), a significant amount.Iraq’s future production has already been damaged as international oil companies are withdrawing staff for safety reasons, anticipating potential attacks by both Iraqi and Iranian sources. It is now very unlikely that the crucial ‘common seawater supply project’ being run by Exxon – essential for expanding production capacity – will go ahead in the near future.However, one important consequence of the assassination that has attracted little attention is that it has almost fully restored the role of geopolitics into the determination of oil prices. Up to 2014, geopolitics played a key role in determining oil prices in the paper markets where perceptions and expectations ruled.Prices determined in these markets – NYMEX in New York, ICE in London and other lesser futures markets throughout the world – then influence wet barrel markets where real barrels of oil are traded. In 2014, the world was so oversupplied with real oil barrels that the oil price collapsed – the price of Brent crude fell from $110.72 on 23 May to $46.44 eight months later. Thereafter, little if any attention was given to geopolitical events, and geopolitics became marginalized in the determination of crude oil prices.This began to change in 2019. The market remained physically over-supplied but events in the Gulf began to attract attention. In June, there were a series of attacks on oil tankers close to the Gulf, followed by attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq processing facility and the Khurais oil field in September.The Americans claimed these attacks were launched by Iran, but no convincing evidence for the claim was provided. Both attacks produced an initial price response but it was surprisingly limited and short-lived. However, it did suggest that geopolitics might be creeping back into influencing oil prices.This became ever more noticeable in the third and fourth quarters as rumours regarding the trade talks between China and US clearly began to affect price – talks going well meant higher oil demand, and prices rose; talks going badly meant lower oil demand, and prices fell.Meanwhile, the oil market showed signs of tightening towards the end of 2019. Although there was much cheating on the OPEC+ agreement that was trying to restrain production and protect prices, the OPEC meeting last December saw both Iraq and Nigeria agreeing to restrain production. US stock levels also began to fall in December and the futures markets began to price in a tightening market towards the end of 2020. Significantly, the tighter the market appears, the greater attention is paid to the level of spare producing capacity.Just before the attack on Abqaiq, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated there was 3.5 Mb/d spare capacity in OPEC which, historically, is quite comfortable. However, 2.5 of this was estimated to be in Saudi Arabia, so how much of this spare capacity still existed after the Abqaiq attack?The Saudis claimed the Abqaiq capacity was quickly restored but technical experts greeted this with considerable skepticism, not least because the Abqaiq equipment was highly specialized. If spare capacity is tight, this makes the oil price vulnerable to geopolitical scares and rumours, real or imagined. Although the assassination of General Soleimani has exacerbated the sensitivity of oil markets to geopolitical events, this becomes irrelevant if a serious shooting war starts in the region. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq’s oil infrastructure remains highly vulnerable to attack either directly by Iran or one of its many proxies, suggesting oil prices will become increasingly volatile but, at the same time, benefit from a rising geopolitical premium. Full Article
world news The Struggle for the State in Syria By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 14 Jan 2020 10:50:01 +0000 Research Event 11 March 2020 - 9:00am to 6:30pm Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE This conference brings together policymakers, experts, academics and civil society leaders to explore the current condition of the state in Syria. It examines the structure, interrelations and importance of the regime’s core institutions and their interactions with international actors. It also highlights the regime’s different approaches in dealing with state institutions and non-state actors.The speakers discuss governance dynamics in north-western Syria and the east Euphrates region and will analyse governance variations between regions within the regime-controlled areas after the dramatic changes in 2018 and 2019.The conference also aims to evaluate the possibility for Syrians to move from a regime-led state to one that is accountable to its citizens and is governed by the rule of law. Event attributes Livestream Department/project Middle East and North Africa Programme, Syria from Within Reni Zhelyazkova Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme +44 (0)20 7314 3624 Email Full Article
Reni Zhelyazkova Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme +44 (0)20 7314 3624 Email
world news Oman’s New Sultan Needs to Take Bold Economic Steps By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 16 Jan 2020 11:20:41 +0000 16 January 2020 Dr John Sfakianakis Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme The country is in a good regional position, but the economy is at a crossroads. 2020-01-16-SultanHaitham2.jpg Sultan Haitham bin Tariq speaks during a swearing in ceremony as Oman's new leader. Photo: Getty Images. The transition of power in Oman from the deceased Sultan Qaboos to his cousin and the country’s new ruler, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq, has been smooth and quick, but the new sultan will soon find that he has a task in shoring up the country’s economic position.Above all, the fiscal and debt profile of the country requires careful management. Fiscal discipline was rare for Oman even during the oil price spike of the 2000s. Although oil prices only collapsed in 2014, Oman has been registering a fiscal deficit since 2010, reaching a 20.6 per cent high in 2016. As long as fiscal deficits remain elevated, so will Oman’s need to finance those deficits, predominately by borrowing in the local and international market.Oman’s Debt-to-GDP ratio has been rising at a worrying pace, from 4.9 per cent in 2014 to an IMF-estimated 59.8 per cent in 2019. By 2024, the IMF is forecasting the ratio to reach nearly 77 per cent. A study by the World Bank found that if the debt-to-GDP ratio in emerging markets exceeds 64 per cent for an extended period, it slows economic growth by as much as 2 per cent each year.Investors are willing to lend to Oman, but the sultanate is paying for it in terms of higher spreads due to the underlying risk markets are placing on the rising debt profile of the country. For instance, Oman has a higher sovereign debt rating than Bahrain yet markets perceive it to be of higher risk, making it costlier to borrow. Failure to address the fiscal and debt situation also risks creating pressure on the country’s pegged currency.If oil revenues remain low, Sultan Haitham will have to craft a daring strategy of diversification and private sector growth. He is well placed for this: Sultan Haitham headed Oman’s Vision 2040, which set out the country’s future development plans and aspirations, the first Gulf country to embark on such an assessment. However, like all vision documents in the Gulf, Oman’s challenge will be implementation.In the age of climate change, renewable energy is a serious economic opportunity, which Oman has to keep pursuing. If cheap electricity is generated it could also be exported to other Gulf states and to south Asia. In Oman, the share of renewables in total electricity capacity was around 0.5 per cent in 2018; the ambition is to reach 10 per cent by 2025.However, in order to reach this target, Oman would have to take additional measures such as enhancing its regulatory framework, introducing a transparent and gradual energy market pricing policy and integrating all stakeholders, including the private sector, into a wider national strategy.Mining could provide another economic opportunity for Oman’s diversification efforts, with help from a more robust mining law passed last year. The country has large deposits of metals and industrial minerals and its mountains could have gold, palladium, zinc, rare earths and manganese.Oman’s strategic location connecting the Gulf and Indian Ocean with east Africa and the Red Sea could also boost the country’s economy. The Duqm special economic zone, which is among the largest in the world, could become the commercial thread between Oman, south Asia and China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative.’Oman has taken important steps to make its economy more competitive and conducive to foreign direct investment. Incentives include a five-year renewable tax holiday, subsidized plant facilities and utilities, and custom duties relief on equipment and raw materials for the first 10 years of a firm’s operation in Oman.A private sector economic model that embraces small- and medium-sized enterprises as well as greater competition and entrepreneurship would help increase opportunities in Oman. Like all other Gulf economies, future employment in Oman will have to be driven be the private sector, as there is little space left to grow the public sector.Privatization needs to continue. Last year’s successful sale of 49 per cent of the electricity transmission company to China’s State Grid is a very positive step. The electricity distribution company as well as Oman Oil are next in line for some form of partial privatization.The next decade will require Oman to be even more adept in its competitiveness as the region itself tries to find its new bearings. Take tourism for instance; Oman hopes to double its contribution to GDP from around 3 per cent today to 6 per cent by 2040 and the industry is expected to generate half a million jobs by then. Over the next 20 years, Oman will most likely be facing stiff competition in this area not only by the UAE but by Saudi Arabia as well.The new sultan has an opportunity to embark on deeper economic reforms that could bring higher growth, employment opportunities and a sustainable future. But he has a big task. Full Article
world news Synergy in North Africa: Furthering Cooperation By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 20 Jan 2020 15:57:54 +0000 21 January 2020 Discussions of North African integration have evoked ideas of a shared identity and a common destiny in the region. However, recent attempts to build regional blocs in North Africa have been unsuccessful. This paper examines the benefits of a ‘synergistic’ approach to North African cooperation. Read online Download PDF in English Download PDF in Arabic Dr Mohammed Masbah Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme @MasbahMohammed LinkedIn Google Scholar Mohamed El Dahshan Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme @eldahshan LinkedIn Google Scholar 2020-01-21-Market.jpg A Tunisian vendor poses as he sells white truffles at a market in the town of Ben Guerdane, 40km west of the Libyan border, in February 2016. Photo: Getty Images. SummaryNorth African integration is not a new idea. However, countries in the region have so far struggled to form a cohesive bloc with deep political, economic and social ties. Political instability has effectively deprioritized North African integration. A focus on thematic (political, economic and security) ‘synergies’ may provide a better framework for cooperation than seeking opportunities for all-encompassing ‘deep’ and ‘comprehensive’ integration.Governments of North Africa dedicate considerable resources to domestic security. Much of their efforts are conducted at the national-level and directed towards threats from terrorists, insurgents and militias. Improved security cooperation would achieve better outcomes and economies of scale, including efforts to tackle human trafficking.A new generation of jihadis has emerged in North Africa since 2011. Nearly 27 per cent of the 30,000 fighters who travelled to Syria are from the Maghreb. While government counterterrorism operations have been effective, countries have failed to address the root causes of radicalization.Border economies have suffered as a consequence of a security focus on terrorism and smuggling, which has rendered many previously accepted cross-border trade activities illegal. States have struggled to provide alternative livelihoods for those who have lost this source of income. Border forces tend to lack the right combination of capacity, training and equipment to secure borders and often resort to heavy-handed tactics.New thinking is required to develop a more human-centric and proactive approach to migration issues in the region, which continues to witness huge flows of migrants. The migration policy of Morocco, introduced through legislation in 2014, could be a model for North Africa.The countries of North Africa have varying economic profiles, ranging from economically diverse Morocco to oil-and-gas-dependant Libya. However, they all face similar challenges including unemployment (particularly among the young), poor public-service delivery, low FDI levels, an oversized public sector, ineffective tax collection, and high informality.Fostering entrepreneurship and the development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are priorities for North African countries, particularly regarding job creation. Regulatory cooperation – such as harmonizing SME definitions, legislation and support institutions – across North Africa is an obvious area where further integration would encourage the development of start-ups and small businesses.With the advent of the fourth industrial revolution, North African governments must address their technological gaps and work to improve public–private cooperation. In some sectors, such as the fintech industry, North African countries can build upon nascent synergies that have developed organically, such as those of start-up incubators and angel investors that work across the region.Renewables, particularly solar energy production, are a promising development for North Africa. While regional initiatives, such as Desertec, have stalled due to political differences between countries, the sector has witnessed exponential growth in Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco, where the involvement of the private sector has proved successful. Department/project Middle East and North Africa Programme, North Africa Dialogues Full Article