Unless they come to an agreement with the district, Chicago Teachers Union members plan to stop work Oct. 17. And the fight is about more than just pay.

Lawmakers in Illinois are considering a bill that would require children to start kindergarten if they are 5 on or before May 31, with exceptions for summer birthdays.

This Quality Counts 2019 Highlights Report captures all the data you need to assess your state's performance on key educational outcomes.

A collection of short news stories from the last week.

There’s a tussle over the right balance for who should pick up the tab for teacher retirements and how that affects wealthier and less-wealthy districts.

Teachers in the nation's third-largest school system are fighting for salary increases, class-size caps, and a written commitment for more nurses, social workers, and librarians—as well as investments some say are outside the scope of collective bargaining.

A handful of districts and other groups are reshaping the after-school space to provide a wide range of social and linguistic supports for newcomer students.

This Quality Counts 2020 Highlights Report captures all the data you need to assess your state's performance on key educational outcomes.

Margie Vandeven, the state education chief, is appointed by an appointed board, which is still split on whether to fire Vandeven.

In a civics lesson come to life, this Missouri high school government teacher is running for state legislature.

The state's Republican governor is in a pitched battle with the state's educators over the process he used to fire Missouri's commissioner of education.

Gov. Erik Greitens has resigned and the board doesn't have enough governor-appointed members to form a quorum. Important tasks have been piling up.

The search for Missouri's next top education official has begun nearly 10 months after the last one was fired. The state board of education began accepting applications last week.

New state mandates start next school year aimed at identifying and supporting students with dyslexia. The 2016 law also led to development of training for teachers.

The justices declined to hear the appeal of the Ferguson-Florissant district over its at-large board elections, which lower courts invalidated as violating the Voting Rights Act.

Former Republican Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens appointed enough board members to have Commissioner Margie Vandeven fired last year, but now that he's gone, the state board decided to hire her back.

Melissa Tebbenkamp, the director of instructional technology for the Raytown Quality Schools near Kansas City, says her district's biggest cybersecurity risk is "ourselves." She outlines what it takes to teach educators how to help protect schools and districts against cyberattacks.

Learning how to decode words is essential to becoming a reader. But research shows that building a strong vocabulary and knowledge-base is crucial as well.

Former Missouri education Commissioner Margie Vandeven, who was fired by by the state's board of education, has been rehired.

This Quality Counts 2019 Highlights Report captures all the data you need to assess your state's performance on key educational outcomes.

Controversy over an intiative aimed a reducing inequities in Lee's Summit, Mo., schools led the police department to provide security protection for the district's first African-American superintendent. Now the school board has reversed course.

In three days of rock climbing, orienteering, and other challenging outdoor experiences, principals get to examine their own—and others’—strengths and weaknesses as leaders.

Many states have recently enacted laws or rules designed to ensure that teachers are well versed in evidence-based reading instruction. Here are some highlights.

This Quality Counts 2020 Highlights Report captures all the data you need to assess your state's performance on key educational outcomes.

A small group of science teachers in Missouri is using the coronavirus as a teachable moment that's aligned to the Next Generation Science Standards.

Eunji Lim.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 2053--2097.

Abstract:
We study the asymptotic behavior of the least squares estimators when the model is possibly misspecified. We consider the setting where we wish to estimate an unknown function $f_{*}:(0,1)^{d} ightarrow mathbb{R}$ from observations $(X,Y),(X_{1},Y_{1}),cdots ,(X_{n},Y_{n})$; our estimator $hat{g}_{n}$ is the minimizer of $sum _{i=1}^{n}(Y_{i}-g(X_{i}))^{2}/n$ over $gin mathcal{G}$ for some set of functions $mathcal{G}$. We provide sufficient conditions on the metric entropy of $mathcal{G}$, under which $hat{g}_{n}$ converges to $g_{*}$ as $n ightarrow infty $, where $g_{*}$ is the minimizer of $|g-f_{*}| riangleq mathbb{E}(g(X)-f_{*}(X))^{2}$ over $gin mathcal{G}$. As corollaries of our theorem, we establish $|hat{g}_{n}-g_{*}| ightarrow 0$ as $n ightarrow infty $ when $mathcal{G}$ is the set of monotone functions or the set of convex functions. We also make a connection between the convergence rate of $|hat{g}_{n}-g_{*}|$ and the metric entropy of $mathcal{G}$. As special cases of our finding, we compute the convergence rate of $|hat{g}_{n}-g_{*}|^{2}$ when $mathcal{G}$ is the set of bounded monotone functions or the set of bounded convex functions.

Laurent Gardes.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 661--701.

Abstract:
The first part of the paper is dedicated to the construction of a $gamma$ - nonparametric confidence interval for a conditional quantile with a level depending on the sample size. When this level tends to 0 or 1 as the sample size increases, the conditional quantile is said to be extreme and is located in the tail of the conditional distribution. The proposed confidence interval is constructed by approximating the distribution of the order statistics selected with a nearest neighbor approach by a Beta distribution. We show that its coverage probability converges to the preselected probability $gamma $ and its accuracy is illustrated on a simulation study. When the dimension of the covariate increases, the coverage probability of the confidence interval can be very different from $gamma $. This is a well known consequence of the data sparsity especially in the tail of the distribution. In a second part, a dimension reduction procedure is proposed in order to select more appropriate nearest neighbors in the right tail of the distribution and in turn to obtain a better coverage probability for extreme conditional quantiles. This procedure is based on the Tail Conditional Independence assumption introduced in (Gardes, Extremes , pp. 57–95, 18(3) , 2018).

Ruofei Zhao, Yuanzhi Li, Yuekai Sun.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 632--660.

Abstract:
We study the convergence behavior of the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm on Gaussian mixture models with an arbitrary number of mixture components and mixing weights. We show that as long as the means of the components are separated by at least $Omega (sqrt{min {M,d}})$, where $M$ is the number of components and $d$ is the dimension, the EM algorithm converges locally to the global optimum of the log-likelihood. Further, we show that the convergence rate is linear and characterize the size of the basin of attraction to the global optimum.

Maddalena Cavicchioli.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 605--631.

Abstract:
The paper treats the modeling of stationary multivariate stochastic processes via a frequency domain model expressed in terms of cepstrum theory. The proposed model nests the vector exponential model of [20] as a special case, and extends the generalised cepstral model of [36] to the multivariate setting, answering a question raised by the last authors in their paper. Contemporarily, we extend the notion of generalised autocovariance function of [35] to vector time series. Then we derive explicit matrix formulas connecting generalised cepstral and autocovariance matrices of the process, and prove the consistency and asymptotic properties of the Whittle likelihood estimators of model parameters. Asymptotic theory for the special case of the vector exponential model is a significant addition to the paper of [20]. We also provide a mathematical machinery, based on matrix differentiation, and computational methods to derive our results, which differ significantly from those employed in the univariate case. The utility of the proposed model is illustrated through Monte Carlo simulation from a bivariate process characterized by a high dynamic range, and an empirical application on time varying minimum variance hedge ratios through the second moments of future and spot prices in the corn commodity market.

Emanuel Ben-David, Bala Rajaratnam.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 580--604.

Abstract:
The Wishart distribution defined on the open cone of positive-definite matrices plays a central role in multivariate analysis and multivariate distribution theory. Its domain of parameters is often referred to as the Gindikin set. In recent years, varieties of useful extensions of the Wishart distribution have been proposed in the literature for the purposes of studying Markov random fields and graphical models. In particular, generalizations of the Wishart distribution, referred to as Type I and Type II (graphical) Wishart distributions introduced by Letac and Massam in Annals of Statistics (2007) play important roles in both frequentist and Bayesian inference for Gaussian graphical models. These distributions have been especially useful in high-dimensional settings due to the flexibility offered by their multiple-shape parameters. Concerning Type I and Type II Wishart distributions, a conjecture of Letac and Massam concerns the domain of multiple-shape parameters of these distributions. The conjecture also has implications for the existence of Bayes estimators corresponding to these high dimensional priors. The conjecture, which was first posed in the Annals of Statistics, has now been an open problem for about 10 years. In this paper, we give a necessary condition for the Letac and Massam conjecture to hold. More precisely, we prove that if the Letac and Massam conjecture holds on a decomposable graph, then no two separators of the graph can be nested within each other. For this, we analyze Type I and Type II Wishart distributions on appropriate Markov equivalent perfect DAG models and succeed in deriving the aforementioned necessary condition. This condition in particular identifies a class of counterexamples to the conjecture.

Gregor Pasemann, Wilhelm Stannat.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 547--579.

Abstract:
A parameter estimation problem for a class of semilinear stochastic evolution equations is considered. Conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality are given in terms of growth and continuity properties of the nonlinear part. Emphasis is put on the case of stochastic reaction-diffusion systems. Robustness results for statistical inference under model uncertainty are provided.

François Bachoc, Baptiste Broto, Fabrice Gamboa, Jean-Michel Loubes.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 503--546.

Abstract:
In the framework of the supervised learning of a real function defined on an abstract space $mathcal{X}$, Gaussian processes are widely used. The Euclidean case for $mathcal{X}$ is well known and has been widely studied. In this paper, we explore the less classical case where $mathcal{X}$ is the non commutative finite group of permutations (namely the so-called symmetric group $S_{N}$). We provide an application to Gaussian process based optimization of Latin Hypercube Designs. We also extend our results to the case of partial rankings.

Anatoli Juditsky, Arkadi Nemirovski.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 458--502.

Abstract:
We consider the problem of recovering linear image of unknown signal belonging to a given convex compact signal set from noisy observation of another linear image of the signal. We develop a simple generic efficiently computable non linear in observations “polyhedral” estimate along with computation-friendly techniques for its design and risk analysis. We demonstrate that under favorable circumstances the resulting estimate is provably near-optimal in the minimax sense, the “favorable circumstances” being less restrictive than the weakest known so far assumptions ensuring near-optimality of estimates which are linear in observations.

Ming Yu, Varun Gupta, Mladen Kolar.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 413--457.

Abstract:
We study the problem of recovery of matrices that are simultaneously low rank and row and/or column sparse. Such matrices appear in recent applications in cognitive neuroscience, imaging, computer vision, macroeconomics, and genetics. We propose a GDT (Gradient Descent with hard Thresholding) algorithm to efficiently recover matrices with such structure, by minimizing a bi-convex function over a nonconvex set of constraints. We show linear convergence of the iterates obtained by GDT to a region within statistical error of an optimal solution. As an application of our method, we consider multi-task learning problems and show that the statistical error rate obtained by GDT is near optimal compared to minimax rate. Experiments demonstrate competitive performance and much faster running speed compared to existing methods, on both simulations and real data sets.

Olivier Roustant, Fabrice Gamboa, Bertrand Iooss.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 386--412.

Abstract:
The so-called polynomial chaos expansion is widely used in computer experiments. For example, it is a powerful tool to estimate Sobol’ sensitivity indices. In this paper, we consider generalized chaos expansions built on general tensor Hilbert basis. In this frame, we revisit the computation of the Sobol’ indices with Parseval equalities and give general lower bounds for these indices obtained by truncation. The case of the eigenfunctions system associated with a Poincaré differential operator leads to lower bounds involving the derivatives of the analyzed function and provides an efficient tool for variable screening. These lower bounds are put in action both on toy and real life models demonstrating their accuracy.

Jean-Marc Bardet, Kare Kamila, William Kengne.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 2009--2052.

Abstract:
This paper studies the model selection problem in a large class of causal time series models, which includes both the ARMA or AR($infty $) processes, as well as the GARCH or ARCH($infty $), APARCH, ARMA-GARCH and many others processes. To tackle this issue, we consider a penalized contrast based on the quasi-likelihood of the model. We provide sufficient conditions for the penalty term to ensure the consistency of the proposed procedure as well as the consistency and the asymptotic normality of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the chosen model. We also propose a tool for diagnosing the goodness-of-fit of the chosen model based on a Portmanteau test. Monte-Carlo experiments and numerical applications on illustrative examples are performed to highlight the obtained asymptotic results. Moreover, using a data-driven choice of the penalty, they show the practical efficiency of this new model selection procedure and Portemanteau test.

François Bachoc, José Betancourt, Reinhard Furrer, Thierry Klein.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1962--2008.

Abstract:
The asymptotic analysis of covariance parameter estimation of Gaussian processes has been subject to intensive investigation. However, this asymptotic analysis is very scarce for non-Gaussian processes. In this paper, we study a class of non-Gaussian processes obtained by regular non-linear transformations of Gaussian processes. We provide the increasing-domain asymptotic properties of the (Gaussian) maximum likelihood and cross validation estimators of the covariance parameters of a non-Gaussian process of this class. We show that these estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal, although they are defined as if the process was Gaussian. They do not need to model or estimate the non-linear transformation. Our results can thus be interpreted as a robustness of (Gaussian) maximum likelihood and cross validation towards non-Gaussianity. Our proofs rely on two technical results that are of independent interest for the increasing-domain asymptotic literature of spatial processes. First, we show that, under mild assumptions, coefficients of inverses of large covariance matrices decay at an inverse polynomial rate as a function of the corresponding observation location distances. Second, we provide a general central limit theorem for quadratic forms obtained from transformed Gaussian processes. Finally, our asymptotic results are illustrated by numerical simulations.

Daren Wang, Yi Yu, Alessandro Rinaldo.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1917--1961.

Abstract:
The problem of univariate mean change point detection and localization based on a sequence of $n$ independent observations with piecewise constant means has been intensively studied for more than half century, and serves as a blueprint for change point problems in more complex settings. We provide a complete characterization of this classical problem in a general framework in which the upper bound $sigma ^{2}$ on the noise variance, the minimal spacing $Delta $ between two consecutive change points and the minimal magnitude $kappa $ of the changes, are allowed to vary with $n$. We first show that consistent localization of the change points is impossible in the low signal-to-noise ratio regime $frac{kappa sqrt{Delta }}{sigma }preceq sqrt{log (n)}$. In contrast, when $frac{kappa sqrt{Delta }}{sigma }$ diverges with $n$ at the rate of at least $sqrt{log (n)}$, we demonstrate that two computationally-efficient change point estimators, one based on the solution to an $ell _{0}$-penalized least squares problem and the other on the popular wild binary segmentation algorithm, are both consistent and achieve a localization rate of the order $frac{sigma ^{2}}{kappa ^{2}}log (n)$. We further show that such rate is minimax optimal, up to a $log (n)$ term.

Arvind Prasadan, Raj Rao Nadakuditi, Debashis Paul.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 345--385.

Abstract:
Singular value decomposition (SVD) based principal component analysis (PCA) breaks down in the high-dimensional and limited sample size regime below a certain critical eigen-SNR that depends on the dimensionality of the system and the number of samples. Below this critical eigen-SNR, the estimates returned by the SVD are asymptotically uncorrelated with the latent principal components. We consider a setting where the left singular vector of the underlying rank one signal matrix is assumed to be sparse and the right singular vector is assumed to be equisigned, that is, having either only nonnegative or only nonpositive entries. We consider six different algorithms for estimating the sparse principal component based on different statistical criteria and prove that by exploiting sparsity, we recover consistent estimates in the low eigen-SNR regime where the SVD fails. Our analysis reveals conditions under which a coordinate selection scheme based on a sum-type decision statistic outperforms schemes that utilize the $ell _{1}$ and $ell _{2}$ norm-based statistics. We derive lower bounds on the size of detectable coordinates of the principal left singular vector and utilize these lower bounds to derive lower bounds on the worst-case risk. Finally, we verify our findings with numerical simulations and a illustrate the performance with a video data where the interest is in identifying objects.

Wanli Qiao.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 302--344.

Abstract:
Bandwidth selection is crucial in the kernel estimation of density level sets. A risk based on the symmetric difference between the estimated and true level sets is usually used to measure their proximity. In this paper we provide an asymptotic $L^{p}$ approximation to this risk, where $p$ is characterized by the weight function in the risk. In particular the excess risk corresponds to an $L^{2}$ type of risk, and is adopted to derive an optimal bandwidth for nonparametric level set estimation of $d$-dimensional density functions ($dgeq 1$). A direct plug-in bandwidth selector is developed for kernel density level set estimation and its efficacy is verified in numerical studies.

Assaf Rabinowicz, Saharon Rosset.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 272--301.

Abstract:
Common model selection criteria, such as $AIC$ and its variants, are based on in-sample prediction error estimators. However, in many applications involving predicting at interpolation and extrapolation points, in-sample error does not represent the relevant prediction error. In this paper new prediction error estimators, $tAI$ and $Loss(w_{t})$ are introduced. These estimators generalize previous error estimators, however are also applicable for assessing prediction error in cases involving interpolation and extrapolation. Based on these prediction error estimators, two model selection criteria with the same spirit as $AIC$ and Mallow’s $C_{p}$ are suggested. The advantages of our suggested methods are demonstrated in a simulation and a real data analysis of studies involving interpolation and extrapolation in linear mixed model and Gaussian process regression.

Gianluca Finocchio, Johannes Schmidt-Hieber.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 239--271.

Abstract:
Consider the Gaussian sequence model under the additional assumption that a fixed fraction of the means is known. We study the problem of variance estimation from a frequentist Bayesian perspective. The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for $sigma^{2}$ is biased and inconsistent. This raises the question whether the posterior is able to correct the MLE in this case. By developing a new proving strategy that uses refined properties of the posterior distribution, we find that the marginal posterior is inconsistent for any i.i.d. prior on the mean parameters. In particular, no assumption on the decay of the prior needs to be imposed. Surprisingly, we also find that consistency can be retained for a hierarchical prior based on Gaussian mixtures. In this case we also establish a limiting shape result and determine the limit distribution. In contrast to the classical Bernstein-von Mises theorem, the limit is non-Gaussian. We show that the Bayesian analysis leads to new statistical estimators outperforming the correctly calibrated MLE in a numerical simulation study.

Patrick L. Combettes, Christian L. Müller.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 207--238.

Abstract:
We introduce a flexible optimization model for maximum likelihood-type estimation (M-estimation) that encompasses and generalizes a large class of existing statistical models, including Huber’s concomitant M-estimator, Owen’s Huber/Berhu concomitant estimator, the scaled lasso, support vector machine regression, and penalized estimation with structured sparsity. The model, termed perspective M-estimation, leverages the observation that convex M-estimators with concomitant scale as well as various regularizers are instances of perspective functions, a construction that extends a convex function to a jointly convex one in terms of an additional scale variable. These nonsmooth functions are shown to be amenable to proximal analysis, which leads to principled and provably convergent optimization algorithms via proximal splitting. We derive novel proximity operators for several perspective functions of interest via a geometrical approach based on duality. We then devise a new proximal splitting algorithm to solve the proposed M-estimation problem and establish the convergence of both the scale and regression iterates it produces to a solution. Numerical experiments on synthetic and real-world data illustrate the broad applicability of the proposed framework.

David Azriel, Armin Schwartzman.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 174--206.

Abstract:
In this work we study estimation of signals when the number of parameters is much larger than the number of observations. A large body of literature assumes for these kind of problems a sparse structure where most of the parameters are zero or close to zero. When this assumption does not hold, one can focus on low-dimensional functions of the parameter vector. In this work we study one-dimensional linear projections. Specifically, in the context of high-dimensional linear regression, the parameter of interest is ${oldsymbol{eta}}$ and we study estimation of $mathbf{a}^{T}{oldsymbol{eta}}$. We show that $mathbf{a}^{T}hat{oldsymbol{eta}}$, where $hat{oldsymbol{eta}}$ is the least squares estimator, using pseudo-inverse when $p>n$, is minimax and admissible. Thus, for linear projections no regularization or shrinkage is needed. This estimator is easy to analyze and confidence intervals can be constructed. We study a high-dimensional dataset from brain imaging where it is shown that the signal is weak, non-sparse and significantly different from zero.

Tamara Fernández, Nicolás Rivera.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1872--1916.

Abstract:
In this paper, we study Kaplan-Meier V- and U-statistics respectively defined as $ heta (widehat{F}_{n})=sum _{i,j}K(X_{[i:n]},X_{[j:n]})W_{i}W_{j}$ and $ heta _{U}(widehat{F}_{n})=sum _{i eq j}K(X_{[i:n]},X_{[j:n]})W_{i}W_{j}/sum _{i eq j}W_{i}W_{j}$, where $widehat{F}_{n}$ is the Kaplan-Meier estimator, ${W_{1},ldots ,W_{n}}$ are the Kaplan-Meier weights and $K:(0,infty )^{2} o mathbb{R}$ is a symmetric kernel. As in the canonical setting of uncensored data, we differentiate between two asymptotic behaviours for $ heta (widehat{F}_{n})$ and $ heta _{U}(widehat{F}_{n})$. Additionally, we derive an asymptotic canonical V-statistic representation of the Kaplan-Meier V- and U-statistics. By using this representation we study properties of the asymptotic distribution. Applications to hypothesis testing are given.