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Indonesia’s imminent presidential election

On April 17, Indonesians will go to the polls to vote in the country’s fifth general election since 1998 when their country’s transition to democratic rule began. Once again, the upcoming election will be a match-up between the two men who ran against each other five years ago: incumbent President Joko Widodo (commonly called Jokowi)…

       




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The Global Compact on Migration: Dead on arrival?

At a conference in Marrakech, Morocco this week, 164 of the 193 members of the United Nations adopted the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration. Negotiations to create the ambitious agreement began two years ago, but the Trump Administration withdrew at the end of 2017, declaring that the Compact would “undermine the sovereign…

       




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Institutions are under existential threat, globally

Much has been written about de-industrialization; the loss of manufacturing jobs in the United States as imports from and other low-income countries rise. But “de-institutionalization” may be more disruptive in the long term. While manufacturing jobs in the U.S. might return as wages rise in low-income countries, technologies like 3-D printing advance, and trade barriers…

       




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Urban youth unemployment: A looming crisis?

Unemployment is a growing challenge around the world, though it is not a full-blown crisis yet. However, when the crisis comes, it is likely to erupt among urban youth. While heading off such a calamity will not be easy, the global benefits of doing so would be great. As productive and socially responsible adults, the…

       




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Myanmar economy grows despite refugee crisis

For people in the West, Myanmar appears to be a mess. Yet, for many in Asia, it still beckons as a land of opportunity. Western media remain focused on the ethnic cleansing operation against the Muslim Rohingya community launched by the government's armed forces in the wake of sporadic attacks from late 2015 by a…

       




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On the ground in Myanmar: The Rohingya crisis and a clash of values

During my visit to Myanmar in mid-November, the latest of many since 2010, I witnessed new layers of complexity in the historical and political forces contributing to the Rohingya crisis. While the plight of the Rohingya population has galvanized international opinion, it has reinforced nationalist sentiment within a large segment of the Myanmar population and…

       




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The humanitarian crisis facing the Rohingya in Myanmar

Lex Rieffel, nonresident senior fellow in the Global Economy and Development program, and Jonathan Stromseth, senior fellow in the Foreign Policy program, discuss the humanitarian crisis facing the Rohingya in Myanmar, also known as Burma. Rieffel and Stromseth provide background on the Rohingya, the events occurring in Southeast Asia, and recommend policy solutions to ease…

       




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No simple solution to the Rohingya crisis in Myanmar

Reporters on the scene are saying that 300,000 or more members of the Rohingya community (of Muslim faith) in Buddhist-majority Myanmar have fled across the border into Muslim-majority Bangladesh in the past two weeks. The refugees have been describing to reporters a litany of human rights abuses: homes burned, women raped, men beheaded, and more. …

       




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The Rohingya people need help, but Aung San Suu Kyi is not to blame for their mistreatment

       




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Explained: Why America’s deadly drones keep firing

President Obama's announcement last month that earlier this year a “U.S. counterterrorism operation” had killed two hostages, including an American citizen, has become a fresh occasion for questioning the rationales for continuing attacks from unmanned aerial vehicles aimed at presumed, suspected, or even confirmed terrorists. This questioning is desirable, although not mainly for hostage-related reasons…

      
 
 




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Yemen and the American impulse to take sides

A strong Manichean streak runs through American perceptions of the outside world. That streak involves a habit of seeing all conflict and instability in binomial terms, a presumption that one of the perceived two sides is good and the other bad, and an urge to weigh in on the presumptively good side. The influence that…

      
 
 




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The importance of the Iran agreement

A dominant reaction to the framework agreement on Iran's nuclear program, based especially on the State Department's fact sheet about the deal, is that it is remarkably detailed and thorough. The lead article in the New York Times described the agreement as “surprisingly specific and comprehensive.” Immediate reaction in much of the Israeli press was…

      
 
 




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Why nations (including the U.S. and Iran) comply with their agreements

Much of the latest discourse about a prospective nuclear agreement with Iran—with commentary on whether future U.S. presidents could renege on an agreement, on whether an agreement would be binding or non-binding, and so forth—reflects misconceptions on why nations observe international agreements to which they are party, and misconceptions even of the very nature of…

      
 
 




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The CIA and the cult of reorganization

Re-arranging bureaucracies has long been a favorite Washington way of pretending to make improvements. It is a handy recourse in the absence of good ideas to make real improvement. Revising a wiring diagram is the sort of change that can be made visible to the outside world. It does not require reaching consensus about significant…

      
 
 




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Are Americans sliding into another war?

The current U.S. administration has wrapped up U.S. involvement in a mistaken war in Iraq (albeit on a schedule set by the previous administration, and with subsequent reintroduction of some U.S. military personnel into Iraq), has wound down U.S. involvement in a war in Afghanistan that had metamorphosed from a counterterrorist operation into a nation-building…

      
 
 




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Why authorizations of force against terrorists are inevitably troubled

The draft that the Obama administration submitted to Congress to authorize the use of military force against ISIS seems to be pleasing almost no one, and that was bound to be. Some of the strongest early criticism is coming from doves, including people who support Mr. Obama on most other issues, but hawks are complaining…

      
 
 




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The National Effort at Self-Exoneration on Torture

The nation's current attempt at catharsis through a gargantuan report prepared by the Democratic staff of a Senate committee exhibits some familiar patterns. Most of them involve treating a government agency as if it were Dorian Gray's portrait, which can take on all the hideous marks of our own transgressions while we present ourselves as…

      
 
 




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ISIS in Perspective

Americans, following a long tradition of finding monsters overseas to destroy, are now focusing their attention and their energy on a relatively new one: the group variously known as ISIS or ISIL or the Islamic State. The group has become a major disruptive factor in the already disrupted internal affairs of Iraq and Syria, and…

      
 
 




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Aid to Syrian Rebels: How Does It End?

The Obama administration's proposal to spend $500 million on training and equipping “appropriately vetted elements of the moderate Syrian armed opposition” leaves unanswered some of the same questions that always have surrounded proposals to give lethal aid to Syrian rebels. Some of those questions involve the challenges in determining who qualifies as a “moderate.” “Vetting”…

      
 
 




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What’s Wrong With American Housing?

In 2004 and 2005, American homebuilders created over two million new housing units per year, including mobile homes. Then housing construction plummeted to under 600,000 new units per year, a record fall of 70 percent, and home prices fell drastically too.Housing will not help lead the U.S. economy out of this recession, as it has…

       




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Urban Decline and the Future of American Cities

During the past two decades, most large American cities have lost population, yet some have continued to grow. Does this trend foreshadow the “death” of our largest cities? Or is urban decline a temporary phenomenon likely to be reversed by high energy costs? This ambitious book tackles these questions by analyzing the nature and extent…

       




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Revisiting Rental Housing

Rental housing is increasingly recognized as a vital housing option in the United States. Government policies and programs continue to grapple with problematic issues, however, including affordability, distressed urban neighborhoods, concentrated poverty, substandard housing stock, and the unmet needs of the disabled, the elderly, and the homeless. In R evisiting Rental Housing, leading housing researchers…

       




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Credit Crisis: The Sky is not Falling

U.S. stock markets are gyrating on news of an apparent credit crunch generated by defaults among subprime home mortgage loans. Such frenzy has spurred Wall Street to cry capital crisis. However, there is no shortage of capital – only a shortage of confidence in some of the instruments Wall Street has invented. Much financial capital…

       




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Can Traffic Congestion Be Cured?

The Bush Administration recently launched a new "National Strategy to Reduce Congestion on America's Transportation Network." This new policy deals with both air and ground travel, but focuses mainly on highway traffic congestion. But does this strategy show an understanding of what really causes traffic congestion and what might be done effectively in response?According to…

       




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Traffic Is Here to Stay

"'Summertime, and the drivin' is easy" ought to be the theme song for drivers in our nation's capital region. Traffic is lighter here in the summer for three reasons: School buses are off the roads, Congress is often out of session and many Washingtonians are on vacation. Yet summer is also a time when road…

       




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Still Stuck in Traffic

Congested roads waste commuters' time, cost them money, and degrade the environment. Most Americans agree that traffic congestion is the major problem in their communities—and it only seems to be getting worse. In this revised and expanded edition of his landmark work Stuck in Traffic, Anthony Downs examines the benefits and costs of various anticongestion…

       




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Growth Management and Affordable Housing

Advocates of growth management and smart growth often propose policies that raise housing prices, thereby making housing less affordable to many households trying to buy or rent homes. Such policies include urban growth boundaries, zoning restrictions on multi-family housing, utility district lines, building permit caps, and even construction moratoria. Does this mean there is an…

       




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The Need for Regional Anti-Congestion Policies

Traffic congestion is essentially a regional phenomenon requiring regional approaches to mitigate its impacts. This brief examines the governance options necessary to act regionally and the conditions required to implement such policies. Currently, the reauthorization of the federal transportation spending bill (TEA-21) presents a unique opportunity to build on previous reforms and increase the decision-making…

       




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Traffic: Why It’s Getting Worse, What Government Can Do

Contents Introduction The Real Problem Coping With the Mobility Problem The Principle of Triple Convergence Triple Convergence and Other Proposals How Population Growth Can Swamp Transportation Capacity Low-Density Settlements Possible Improvements Conclusion Rising traffic congestion is an inescapable condition in large and growing metropolitan areas across the world, from Los Angeles to Tokyo, from Cairo…

       




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The great reversal: How America gave up on free markets

American markets, once a model of competition for the world, have experienced a growing concentration of economic power in a few large corporations. The rise of corporate economic—and political—power has emerged as one of the most important issues of our time. It is destined to be a key point of debate in the coming U.S.…

       




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Give poor countries a chance to develop

       




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Recent trends in democracy and development in the emerging world

By the end of 2019, more people will have cast a vote than ever before. Nearly 2 billion voters in 50 countries around the world will have headed to the polls to elect their leaders. At the same time, data show that citizens' trust in governments is weak and political polarization is growing almost everywhere.…

       




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Leave No One Behind

The ambitious 15-year agenda known as the Sustainable Development Goals, adopted in 2015 by all members of the United Nations, contains a pledge that “no one will be left behind.” This book aims to translate that bold global commitment into an action-oriented mindset, focused on supporting specific people in specific places who are facing specific…

       




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Building the SDG economy: Needs, spending, and financing for universal achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals

Pouring several colors of paint into a single bucket produces a gray pool of muck, not a shiny rainbow. Similarly, when it comes to discussions of financing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), jumbling too many issues into the same debate leads to policy muddiness rather than practical breakthroughs. For example, the common “billions to trillions”…

       




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Leave no one behind: Time for specifics on the sustainable development goals

A central theme of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) is a pledge “that no one will be left behind.” Since the establishment of the SDGs in 2015, the importance of this commitment has only grown in political resonance throughout all parts of the globe. Yet, to drive meaningful results, the mantra needs to be matched…

       




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Double tipping points in 2019: When the world became mostly rich and largely old

When it comes to economic development, positive change is typically gradual and only noticeable over long periods of time; by contrast negative developments—economic crises—are often rapid and spectacular. This creates a biased narrative that focuses on negative news, while positive trends go unnoticed because they are less dramatic. In this blog, amid an atmosphere of…

       




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The geography of poverty hotspots

Since at least Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations in 1776, economists have asked why certain places grow, prosper, and achieve a higher standard of living compared to other places. Ever since growth started to accelerate following the industrial revolution, it has been characterized by, above all, unevenness across places within countries. Appalachia, the Italian “Mezzogiorno,”…

       




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Getting specific to leave no one behind

World leaders are gathering in New York this week to attend the first major stocktaking summit on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). When the SDGs were agreed by all countries in 2015, they were intended to help countries accelerate their transition to more sustainable paths by 2030, with sustainability understood to include economic, environmental, and…

       




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US-China competition in global development

This is the second in a two-part series of episodes from the Brookings-Blum Roundtable, an annual forum for global leaders, entrepreneurs, and policy practitioners to discuss innovative ideas and to pursue initiatives to alleviate global poverty. In this episode, Merrell Tuck-Primdahl, director of communications for the Global Economy and Development program at Brookings, speaks with…

       




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“Becoming Kim Jong Un”

       




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Webinar: How federal job vacancies hinder the government’s response to COVID-19

Vacant positions and high turnover across the federal bureaucracy have been a perpetual problem since President Trump was sworn into office. Upper-level Trump administration officials (“the A Team”) have experienced a turnover rate of 85 percent — much higher than any other administration in the past 40 years. The struggle to recruit and retain qualified…

       




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Trump’s Playbook Is Terribly Ill-Suited to a Pandemic

       




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23 Dangerous Propositions the Senate Just Ratified

       




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The Incomprehensibly Weak Case for Acquittal Without Witnesses

       




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The Utter Ridiculousness of the U.S. Senate

       




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Unmaking the presidency

The extraordinary authority of the U.S. presidency has no parallel in the democratic world. Today that authority resides in the hands of one man, Donald J. Trump. But rarely, if ever, has the nature of a president clashed more profoundly with the nature of the office. From the moment of his inauguration, Trump has challenged…

       




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Trump’s Impeachment Brief Is a Howl of Rage

       




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Trump’s Frightening Vision of the Presidency Is on Trial, Too

       




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The Senate Trial Will Be Totally Predictable—With One Potential for Surprise

       




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Educate Girls development impact bond could be win-win for investors and students


On July 5, the results from the first year of the world’s first development impact bond (DIB) for education in Rajasthan, India, were announced. The Center for Universal Education hosted a webinar in which three stakeholders in the DIB shared their perspective on the performance of the intervention, their learnings about the DIB process, and their thoughts for the future of DIBs and other results-based financing mechanisms.

What is the social challenge?

Approximately 3 million girls ages 6 to 13 were out of school in India according to most recent data, 350,000 of which are in the state of Rajasthan. Child marriage is also a large issue in the state; no state-specific data exists, but nationwide 47 percent of girls ages 20 to 24 are married before age 18. According to Educate Girls, a non-governmental organization based in Rajasthan, girls’ exclusion is primarily a result of paternalistic societal mindsets and traditions. Given the evidence linking education and future life outcomes for girls, this data is greatly concerning.

What intervention does the DIB finance?

The DIB finances a portion of the services provided by Educate Girls, which has been working to improve enrollment, retention, and learning outcomes for girls (and boys) in Rajasthan since 2007. The organization trains a team of community volunteers ages 18 to 30 to make door-to-door visits encouraging families to enroll their girls in school and to deliver curriculum enhancement in public school classrooms. Their volunteers are present in over 8,000 villages and 12,500 schools in Rajasthan. The DIB was launched in March of 2015 to finance services in 166 schools, which represents 5 percent of Educate Girls’ annual budget. The DIB is intended to be a “proof of concept” of the mechanism using this relatively small selection of beneficiaries.

Who are the stakeholders in the Educate Girls DIB?

The investor in the DIB is UBS Optimus Foundation, who has provided $238,000 in working capital to fund the service delivery. ID Insight, a non-profit evaluation firm, will evaluate the improvement in learning of girls and boys in the treatment schools in comparison to a control group and will validate the number of out of school girls enrolled. The Children’s Investment Fund Foundation serves as the outcome funder, and has agreed to pay UBS Optimus Foundation 43.16 Swiss francs ($44.37) for each unit of improved learning and 910.14 francs ($935.64) for every percentage point increase in the enrollment of girls out of school. Instiglio, a non-profit impact bond and results-based financing intermediary organization, provided technical assistance to all parties during the design of the DIB and currently provides performance management assistance to Educate Girls on behalf of UBS Optimus Foundation. 

What were the first-year results of the DIB?

The outcomes will be calculated in 2018, at the end of three years; however, preliminary results for the year since the launch of the DIB (representing multiple months of door-to-door visits and seven weeks of interventions in the classroom) were released last week. The payments for the DIB were structured such that the investor, UBS Optimus Foundation, would earn a 10 percent internal rate of return (IRR) on their investment at target outcome levels, which were based on Educate Girls’ past performance data. The table below presents the metrics, target outcome level, year-one result, and the progress toward the target. 

Table 1: Educate Girls DIB Results from first year of services

What were the key learnings over the past year?

The DIB was challenging to implement and required DIB stakeholders to be resourceful.

First, the reliability of government data was a challenge, which necessitated flexibility in the identification of the target population and metrics. Second, given the number of stakeholders engaged and the novelty of this approach, the transaction costs were higher than they would have been for a traditional grant. This meant that strong and regular communication was crucial to the survival of the project.

The role of the outcome funder and investor were significantly different versus a grant.

The outcome funder spent more resources on defining outcomes, but spent fewer resources on managing grant activities. The investor utilized risk management and monitoring strategies informed by the activities in their commercial banking branch, which they have not used for other grants.

The DIB has changed the way the service provider operates.

In the video below, Safeena Husain from Educate Girls’ highlights the ways in which financing a portion of their program through a DIB differs from financing the program through grants. Safeena describes that in a grant, performance data is reported up to donors, but rarely makes it back down to frontline workers. The DIB has helped them to develop mobile dashboards that ensure performance data is reaching the front line and helping to identify barriers to outcomes as early as possible.

Based on the learnings from the implementation of the first DIB for education, this tool can be used to improve the value for money for the outcome funder and strengthen the performance management of a service provider. As the panelists discussed in the webinar, DIBs and other outcome-based financing mechanisms can help differentiate between organizations that are adept at fundraising and those that excel at delivering outcomes. However, service providers must be sufficiently prepared for rigorous outcome measurement if they plan to participate in a DIB; otherwise the high-stakes environment might backfire. In our research, we have closely examined the design constraints for impact bonds in the early childhood sector.

There are countless lessons to be learned from the stakeholder’s experience in the first DIB for education. We applaud the stakeholders for being transparent about the outcomes and true challenges associated with this mechanism. This transparency will be absolutely critical to ensure that DIBs are implemented and utilized appropriately moving forward.

Authors

Image Source: © Mansi Thapliyal / Reuters