Kostya Medvedovsky writes: I wanted to direct your attention to the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium’s new projections. They’re very similar to the IMHE model you’ve covered before, and had some calibration issues. However, per the writeup by Spencer Woody et al., they do three things you may be interested in: They fix an […]

The above line is not a joke. It’s from Buzzfeed. Really. Stephanie Lee interviewed a bunch of people, including me, for this Buzzfeed article, “Two Big Studies Say There Are Way More Coronavirus Infections Than We Think. Scientists Think They’re Wrong.” I liked the article. My favorite part is a quote (not from me) that […]

So, there’s this new study doing the rounds. Some economists decided to study the twitter followers of prominent coronavirus skeptics and fearmongers, and it seems that followers of Nassim Taleb were more likely to shelter in place, and less like to die of coronavirus, than followers of Richard Epstein or Cass Sunstein. And the differences […]

Simas Kucinskas writes: I would like to share some recent research (pdf here). In this paper, I develop a new method for estimating R in real time, and apply it to track the dynamics of COVID-19. The method is based on standard epidemiological theory, but the approach itself is heavily inspired by time-series statistics. I […]

The other day I wrote about the challenge in addressing the pandemic—a worldwide science/engineering problem—using our existing science and engineering infrastructure, which is some mix of government labs and regulatory agencies, private mega-companies, smaller companies, university researchers, and media entities and rich people who can direct attention and resources. The current system might be the […]

Carlos Ungil writes: The IHME released an update to their model yesterday. Using now a better model and taking into account the relaxation of mitigation measures their forecast for US deaths has almost doubled to 134k (95% uncertainty range 95k-243k). My [Ungil’s] charts of the evolution of forecasts across time can be found here. I […]

What’s new? The new and shiny reduce_sum facility released with Stan 2.23 is far more user-friendly and makes it easier to scale Stan programs with more CPU cores than it was before. While Stan is awesome for writing models, as the size of the data or complexity of the model increases it can become impractical […]

The University of Washington in Seattle is a big place. It includes the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which has produced a widely-circulated and widely-criticized coronavirus model. As we’ve discussed, the IHME model is essentially a curve-fitting exercise that makes projections using the second derivative of the time trend on the log scale. […]

After getting 80 zillion comments on that last post with all that political content, I wanted to share something that’s purely technical. It’s something Bob Carpenter wrote in a conversation regarding implementing algorithms in Stan: One thing we are doing is having the matrix library return more expression templates rather than copying on return as […]

As heads of state, local leaders, business owners and individual citizens weighed the costs of re-opening the global economy, fears of new outbreaks grew. A central question emerged: How much infection and loss of life will emerge amid the push to restart business?

After snapping up more than $500 billion in emergency loans in just three weeks, small-business owners have lost interest in the federal Paycheck Protection Program. Minnesota business owners are among those who may give back a chunk of their forgivable loans.

Declining state and local government spending really can make an economic downturn worse. And this recession is bad enough already.

The fan-favorite outfielder abruptly left the team last week.

Dear Reader, “May you live in interesting times” is a curse couched to sound like a blessing. We most certainly are living through interesting times, and it’s easy to count the many difficulties we currently face. So, tell me something […]

The post [Surnetkids] How to Make a Face Mask appeared first on Newsletters » Surfnetkids.

Unger, Jason Feb 4, 1983 - May 5, 2020 Jason Unger, 37, of Lakewood Ranch, Florida, died on May 5, 2020. Funeral arrangements by: .....

Karvelas, William Jul 19, 1931 - Apr 29, 2020 William Karvelas, 88, of Venice, Florida, died on Apr 29, 2020. .....

In a new video feature being introduced today, Paulick Report publisher Ray Paulick tries to answer questions that readers have submitted using the “Ask Ray” button at the top of the horse racing website's home page. Many recent “Ask Ray” questions have focused on re-scheduling of major races and the resumption of the sport in […]

The post Introducing Ask Ray: Impertinent Answers To Important Questions appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

The inbox was flooded with questions after the first Ask Ray video feature was published, and this week – unlike his maiden voyage – Ray has come up with actual answers to questions from Paulick Report readers (all without the assistance of Google…well, mostly). Several questions were related to the starting gate, including the new 20-stall […]

The post Ask Ray: Starting Gate Questions And Camel Races? appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

By all accounts, the second division of Saturday's Grade 1 Arkansas Derby from Oaklawn in Hot Springs, Ark., going as the 13th race on the 14-race closing-day program, is much deeper in quality than the first division, which is dominated by the Speightstown colt Charlatan, likely an odds-on favorite. Nadal, who like Charlatan is an […]

The post Triple Crown News Minute Presented By Kentucky Equine Research: Arkansas Derby’s Deeper Division appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

There is no firm timeline in place for the resumption of racing at Parx, but when it does happen, it's going to look quite different. That's the word from Sal DeBunda, president of the Pennsylvania Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association in a video update posted on the group's Facebook page last week. DeBunda explained that Pennsylvania Gov. […]

The post Parx Has Several Hurdles To Clear Before Racing Can Resume appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

In the latest installment of Ask Ray, Paulick Report publisher Ray Paulick answers questions from readers on several topics, and it's apparent from his responses that he's a little edgy after being in isolation since mid-March. A question about why California workouts are almost all designated as “handily” while the rest of the country's workouts […]

The post Ask Ray: Workout Designations, DRF Mystery, Arizona ADW And Edgar Prado appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Starting November 1 the University of Michigan Library has access to the new version of chemistry database SciFinder — SciFinder-n. In fact, both will be accessible to our users with the same login and password information.

Grand Canyon's North Rim to open for the season on May 15, 2009. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/north-rim-season-opening.htm

On Saturday, April 25, 2009, Grand Canyon National Park will celebrate National Junior Ranger Day with kid-friendly activities and programs for the entire family. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news-njrd-03-09.htm

Each year in the spring (April – June), an increase in the turbidity of drinking (potable) water occurs at Grand Canyon National Park. Turbidity has no health effects.  https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/info-2009-04-01-turbid.htm

https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/implementation-of-south-rim-visitor-transportation-plan.htm

Construction began this week on visitor improvements outlined in Grand Canyon National Park's South Rim Visitor Transportation Plan.  https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news-2009-05-01-phase-i.htm

The Arizona Department of Transportation will open Highway 67 to the North Rim of Grand Canyon National Park on Friday, May 15 by 7:00 a.m. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news-2009-05-13-north-rim.htm

The nineteenth annual Grand Canyon Star Party will be held from Saturday, June 13 through Saturday, June 20, 2009 on the South and North Rims of Grand Canyon National Park. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news-2009-05-20-star.htm

Forest and park managers have agreed it is beneficial to manage both fires under one organization. On Saturday, June 13, the Ruby and Game Reserve fires became the Ruby Complex. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news-2009-06-15-fires.htm

The two fires forming the Ruby Complex have grown to 3,396 acres. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/the-ruby-fire-and-game-reserve-fire-now-managed-as-the-ruby-complex.htm

https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/national-park-service-announces-availability-of-environmental-assessment-for-train-operations-in-grand-canyon-national-park.htm

Firefighters completed ignition of the 243 acre Moqui Prescribed Fire on Tuesday, June 23.  https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news-2009-07-01-moqui.htm

A proposed rule to update regulations associated with the management of the Colorado River and adjoining lands administered by the National Park Service within Grand Canyon National Park was published in the Federal Register today. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/grand-canyon-national-park-releases-proposed-rule-to-update-regulations-governing-colorado-river.htm

Grand Canyon National Park Superintendent Steve Martin has announced that an Environmental Assessment (EA) for Supai Camp Improvements is now available for public review and comment. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/environmental-assessment-for-improvements-at-supai-camp-within-grand-canyon-national-park-available-for-public-review-and-comment.htm

Grand Canyon National Park Superintendent Steve Martin today announced the availability of the Final Environmental Impact Statement and Assessment of Effect (FEIS/AEF) to update the park’s Fire Management Plan. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/national-park-service-releases-final-environmental-impact-statement-and-assessment-of-effect-to-update-grand-canyon-national-park-fire-management-plan.htm

The Aspen Fire, located on the Walhalla Plateau east of the North Rim developed area in Grand Canyon National Park, received precipitation on Saturday, August 22, reducing visible smoke and fire activity.  https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news_2009-08-23_aspen.htm

A Finding of No Significant Impact was signed on August 28, 2009, by Michael D. Snyder, Regional Director for the Intermountain Region of the National Park Service, for Train Operations at Grand Canyon National Park https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news_2009-08-31_trainea.htm

As the first phase of improvements called for in Grand Canyon National Park's South Rim Visitor Transportation Plan nears completion, the transition to the new South Entrance Road alignment will begin on Tuesday, September 8.  https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news_2009-09-02_phasei.htm

A Finding of No Significant Impact was signed today for improvements to Supai Camp at Grand Canyon National Park. These improvements will be funded in part through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA). https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news_2009-09-03_supai_fonsi.htm

The National Park Service (NPS) recently awarded a construction contract to SKY Engineering and Construction, Inc. of Phoenix, Ariz., for the renovation of the Desert View restroom and the replacement of existing chemical toilets with new concrete vault toilet buildings at four locations along Grand Canyon National Park’s Desert View Drive. Locations include: South Kaibab Trailhead, Grandview Overlook and Trailhead, Buggeln Hill Picnic Area, and Tusayan Museum. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/desert-view-restroom-renovation-and-east-rim-drive-toilets-project-to-begin-at-grand-canyon-national-park.htm

https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/grand-canyon-hiker-discovered-deceased-below-north-rim-near-toroweap-valley.htm

Grand Canyon National Park’s North and South Rim Artist-in-Residence programs are pleased to announce the artists selected for the October 2009 – September 2010 season. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news_2009-10-22_air.htm

Grand Canyon National Park Superintendent Steve Martin has announced that an environmental assessment for the construction of a new Science and Resource Management Facility in the park is now available for public review and comment. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news_2009-11-19_sandrm.htm

North Rim of Grand Canyon National Park to close for the season https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/north-rim-of-grand-canyon-national-park-to-close-for-the-season.htm

  https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/2009-12-14_train.htm

Grand Canyon National Park rangers and road crews continue to work on clearing Desert View Drive of multiple accidents after light snow fell on wet roads just as evening temperatures dropped below freezing on Tuesday, December 29. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/2009-12-29_accidents.htm