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Economic crisis provides lessons for new approaches to forecasting, says OECD

Extreme volatility during the global financial crisis complicated economic forecasting, leading to large errors that underline the need for better modelling methods and new approaches for making and presenting projections.




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Make growth socially inclusive for improved well-being and stronger economies – OECD report

Inequality – now at its highest level in decades in many countries – undermines economic growth and well-being, says a new OECD report. But policies to tackle the widening gap between rich and poor will only succeed if they also look beyond income and address better access to high-quality education, health care and public infrastructure, it adds.




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Germany should enact economic and social reforms to make its growth path more inclusive and sustainable, OECD says

Germany’s current economic success offers a good platform for achieving sustainable and inclusive growth, but further reforms will be necessary over the medium and long term, according to the latest OECD Economic Survey of Germany.




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Economic policies and microeconomic stability: a literature review and some empirics

This study reviews the existing literature on the link between economic policies and economic stability at the firm and household level. Based on firm-level and household-level data for a wide range of OECD countries, it also provides preliminary results on sources and patterns of microeconomic volatility.




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Do resources flow to patenting firms? Cross-country evidence from firm level data

This paper exploits longitudinal data on firm performance and patenting activity for 23 OECD countries over the period 2003-2010 to explore the extent to which changes in the patent stock are associated with flows of capital and labour to patenting firms.




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Vulnerability of Social Institutions

This report examines the sustainability of social institutions and their ability to absorb and cope with short-term shocks and longer-term trends by providing risk sharing and expenditure smoothing, focusing on pension, health care and unemployment insurance schemes.




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Governments must address the vulnerability of social institutions, OECD says

Future generations will pay a high price if countries fail to reform pension, health care and unemployment schemes, according to a new OECD report.




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Vulnerability of social institutions: lessons from the recent crisis and historical episodes

The recent economic crisis has provided a stress test for the vulnerability of social institutions. This paper assesses the vulnerability of social institutions in light of the current crisis, and surveys past episodes, when social institutions faced similar challenges.




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Reducing income inequality and poverty and promoting social mobility in Korea

To strengthen social cohesion, a top government priority, it is essential to address the labour market roots of inequality by breaking down dualism to reduce the share of non-regular workers and to boost the employment ratio toward the government’s 70% target.




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A revival of the private rental sector of the housing market? Lessons from Germany, Finland, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands

This Working Paper studies ways to stimulate the private rental sector (PRS) of the housing market – and compares experiences with policies and reforms in Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the Czech Republic.




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Making economic growth more socially inclusive in Germany

While past labour market reforms have been successful in terms of employment, the relative poverty risk and income inequality have remained broadly unchanged in recent years.




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Norway has some good measures to combat money laundering and terrorist financing, but significant weaknesses undermine overall effectiveness, says FATF

Norway has taken some good initiatives to combat money laundering and terrorist financing, but needs to establish overarching policies and strategies, and address significant weaknesses in a number of key areas, according to a new report by the Financial Action Task Force.




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Why implicit bank debt guarantees matter: Some empirical evidence

What are the economic effects of implicit bank debt guarantees and who ultimately benefits? This report sheds light on these questions




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Making the most of natural resources in Indonesia

In Indonesia, the pressure on the environment that natural resource exploitation is creating should be addressed by increasing the share of gas and renewables in the energy mix, properly defining property rights and regulations regarding forest land, and implementing a positive implicit carbon price. More resources should be devoted to combating widespread illegal mining and deforestation.




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Low interest rates threaten solvency of pension funds and insurers

The current low interest rate environment poses a significant risk for the long-term financial viability of pension funds and insurance companies, as they seek to generate sufficient returns to meet promises, according to a new OECD report.




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An inclusive South Africa needs more investment and jobs

South Africa has made impressive social progress over the past two decades, lifting millions of people out of poverty and broadening access to essential services like water, electricity and sanitation.




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Institutions to promote pro-productivity policies: logic and lessons

In order to promote productivity, and thus boost living standards in the long run, public policies need to focus on improving incentives, capabilities and flexibility within an economy.




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Israel’s economy is sound but it urgently needs to address productivity, inequality and poverty

Israel’s economy has strong fundamentals, but the country needs to address productivity, inequality and poverty if it wants to improve well-being and reduce socio-economic divides, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Survey of Israel.




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Germany: Boost investment and productivity for a stronger economy and more inclusive society

Germany is in a solid economic position, but ageing and technological change require new investments in people to ensure a stronger and more inclusive society, according to the latest OECD Economic Survey of Germany.




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Recovery underway in Denmark, but reforms needed to maintain high living standards and ensure sustainability of social welfare system

Denmark’s economic prospects are improving, but further reforms are needed to maintain the country’s high living standards and ensure the well-being of all citizens, according to a new report from the OECD.




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The UK’s heart is wobbling but there are good reasons to Remain in the Union

Membership of the European Union contributes to the economic prosperity of the United Kingdom.




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Insolvency regimes and productivity growth: a framework for analysis

This paper develops an analytical framework to identify the policies relevant for firm exit and the channels through which they shape aggregate productivity growth.




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The effects of reform scenarios for unemployment benefits and social assistance on financial incentives to work and poverty in Lithuania

In 2015 the Lithuanian government launched an ambitious Social Model reform agenda aimed at balancing flexibility of the labour market and security provided through the system of social protection.




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Insolvency regimes and productivity growth: a framework for analysis

This paper develops an analytical framework to identify the policies relevant for firm exit and the channels through which they shape aggregate productivity growth.




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The effects of reform scenarios for unemployment benefits and social assistance on financial incentives to work and poverty in Lithuania

In 2015 the Lithuanian government launched an ambitious Social Model reform agenda aimed at balancing flexibility of the labour market and security provided through the system of social protection.




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Cardiac arrest or dizzy spell: Why is world trade so weak, what can policy do about it?

World trade growth was rapid in the two decades prior to the global financial crisis but has halved subsequently.




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Raising well-being in Germany’s ageing society

Population ageing is setting in earlier in Germany than in most other OECD economies and will be marked.




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Inefficient insolvency regimes: a barrier to creative destruction?

A key recent OECD work, the "Future of Productivity" implies that inefficient firms increasingly linger as opposed to exit the market, despite their inability to adopt new technologies.




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OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría presents new OECD studies with economic and social recommendations to Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski

Economic and social reforms undertaken over the past two decades have driven Peruvian efforts to achieve sustainable economic growth and important reductions in poverty. Against a context of weak global growth, Peru will need to diversify its economy, boost skills, reinforce productivity across the labour force and unleash the potential of all regions in order to spur more inclusive national growth.




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Tax reforms, more efficient public spending and better public governance, keys to consolidating Indonesia’s strong economic progress

Indonesia has undergone an extraordinary transformation over the past two decades, benefiting from strong growth that has lifted millions out of poverty and allowed important progress in areas such as health and education. But low levels of public spending and tax revenue are undermining the quality of social services and exacerbating infrastructure gaps, according to the OECD.




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Making growth more inclusive by enhancing social protection: the case of Malaysia

Malaysia’s success in alleviating poverty has been achieved despite the absence of an integrated and comprehensive social protection system.




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Incentivising lending to SMEs with the Funding for Lending Scheme: some evidence from bank-level data in the United Kingdom

This study explores the effectiveness of the incentive mechanisms embedded within the UK’s Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) for banks’ to expand their supply of lending to medium sized enterprises (SMEs).




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Incentivising lending to SMEs with the Funding for Lending Scheme: some evidence from bank-level data in the United Kingdom

This study explores the effectiveness of the incentive mechanisms embedded within the UK’s Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) for banks’ to expand their supply of lending to medium sized enterprises (SMEs)




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Rebalancing Turkey’s growth by improving resource allocation and productivity in manufacturing

Turkey’s manufacturing sector has expanded considerably but not efficiently and competitively enough.




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Rebalancing Turkey’s growth by improving resource allocation and productivity in manufacturing

Turkey’s manufacturing sector has expanded considerably but not efficiently and competitively enough.




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Trends in productivity and sources of productivity growth in Slovenia

Slovenia’s living standards measured in GDP per capita are currently some 20% below the EU15 average and have not yet reached their pre-crisis level.




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Trends in productivity and sources of productivity growth in Slovenia

Slovenia’s living standards measured in GDP per capita are currently some 20% below the EU15 average and have not yet reached their pre-crisis level.




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Strengthening economic resilience: What lessons to draw from the post-1970s record of severe recessions and financial crises

Major global crises such as the 2008-09 episode are mercifully rare, but severe recessions have been quite frequent among OECD countries over the past four decades.




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Deconstructing income inequality in Costa Rica: an income source decomposition approach

Despite an improvement in overall macroeconomic performance in Costa Rica, income inequality has risen and is currently at its maximum historical value.




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Solving Non-Performing Loans in Europe to speed up the recovery

Almost 10 years after the outset of the financial crisis in summer 2008, European growth remains modest, constantly underperforming the OECD average.




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Insolvency Regimes, Zombie Firms and Capital Reallocation

This paper explores cross-country differences in the design of insolvency regimes and their potential links with two inter-related sources of labour productivity weakness: the survival of "zombie" firms (firms that would typically exit in a competitive market) and capital misallocation.




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South Africa: Find new ways to boost growth and job creation

The South African economy has registered tremendous progress over the past two decades, boosting living standards and lifting millions out of poverty nationwide.




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Luxembourg: reaping the benefits of a diverse society through better integration of immigrants

Luxembourg’s large foreign-born population is a pillar of the country’s prosperity: they have brought skills and knowledge to many sectors of the economy.




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How self-sorting affects migrants’ labour market outcomes

Assuming that immigrants select destinations according to absolute returns to their observable and unobservable human capital, I present a human capital model of migration accounting for taxes, transfers and limited portability of skills.




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Capital-embodied technological progress and obsolescence: how do they affect investment behaviour?

This paper analyses how technological progress embodied in capital goods raises productivity and income, while at the same time it can modify the allocation of consumption, investment and the capital stock.




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The distribution of taxable income and fiscal benefits in Spain: new evidence from personal income tax returns (2002-2011)

The personal tax system has a large influence on incentives to work, save and invest and hence growth. At the same time it is a key policy lever for income redistribution.




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Lowering barriers to entrepreneurship and promoting small business growth in South Africa

Lowering high levels of unemployment and inequality are amongst the largest challenges facing South Africa.




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Deepening regional integration within the Southern African Development Community (SADC)

Deepening regional integration within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) will raise potential growth for all member countries.




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South Africa: it is time to rekindle the economy

Growth is projected to reach 1.5% in 2018 after many years below one percent or negative in per capita terms. Low growth and high unemployment have adversely affected the well-being of South Africans. Since 2010, inequality, measured by the Gini coefficient at 0.62, has almost stagnated withering the social contract in a context of policy mistrust.




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Economic expansion offers Israel opportunity to move toward a more inclusive society

The Israeli economy continues to register remarkable performance, with strong growth, low and falling unemployment and sound public finances leading to the 15th consecutive year of economic expansion. Further reforms will be needed to drive down inequality and raise living standards for all Israelis, according to a new report from the OECD.