So, there’s this new study doing the rounds. Some economists decided to study the twitter followers of prominent coronavirus skeptics and fearmongers, and it seems that followers of Nassim Taleb were more likely to shelter in place, and less like to die of coronavirus, than followers of Richard Epstein or Cass Sunstein. And the differences […]

Simas Kucinskas writes: I would like to share some recent research (pdf here). In this paper, I develop a new method for estimating R in real time, and apply it to track the dynamics of COVID-19. The method is based on standard epidemiological theory, but the approach itself is heavily inspired by time-series statistics. I […]

This post is by Phil Price, not Andrew. There a couple of things that some people who comment here already know, but some do not, leading to lots of discussion in the comments that keeps rehashing these issues. I’m hoping that by just putting these here I can save some effort. 1. The ‘infection fatality […]

The other day I wrote about the challenge in addressing the pandemic—a worldwide science/engineering problem—using our existing science and engineering infrastructure, which is some mix of government labs and regulatory agencies, private mega-companies, smaller companies, university researchers, and media entities and rich people who can direct attention and resources. The current system might be the […]

I originally gave this post the title, “Stigler: The Changing History of Robustness,” but then I was afraid nobody would read it. In the current environment of Move Fast and Break Things, not so many people care about robustness. Also, the widespread use of robustness checks to paper over brittle conclusions has given robustness a […]

Kevin Lewis pointed me to this article. It seemed kinda familiar, I took a look at the abstract, and I realized . . . I reviewed this article for the journal! Here was my referee report: The paper seems fine to me. I have only two minor comments, both relating to the abstract. 1. I […]

We’ve had lots of discussions here and elsewhere online about fundamental flaws in statistics culture: the whole p-value thing, statistics used for confirmation rather than falsification, corruption of the pizzagate variety, soft corruption in which statistics is used in the service of country-club-style backslapping, junk science routinely getting the imprimatur of the National Academy of […]

Carlos Ungil writes: The IHME released an update to their model yesterday. Using now a better model and taking into account the relaxation of mitigation measures their forecast for US deaths has almost doubled to 134k (95% uncertainty range 95k-243k). My [Ungil’s] charts of the evolution of forecasts across time can be found here. I […]

The University of Washington in Seattle is a big place. It includes the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which has produced a widely-circulated and widely-criticized coronavirus model. As we’ve discussed, the IHME model is essentially a curve-fitting exercise that makes projections using the second derivative of the time trend on the log scale. […]

Part 1 Andrew Lilley, Gianluca Rinaldi, and Matthew Lilley write: You might be familiar with a recent paper by Correira, Luck, and Verner who argued that cities that enacted non-pharmaceutical interventions earlier / for longer during the Spanish Flu of 1918 had higher subsequent economic growth. The paper has had extensive media coverage – e.g. […]

By default, ggplot expands the space above and below the x-axis (and to the left and right of the y-axis). Andrew has made it pretty clear that he thinks the x axis should be drawn at y = 0. To remove the extra space around the axes when you have continuous (not discrete or log […]

Bruising convention battle calls into question party unity behind the Peterson challenger.

The decision to shelve detailed advice from the nation's top disease control experts for reopening communities during the coronavirus pandemic came from the highest levels of the White House, according to internal government e-mails.

As heads of state, local leaders, business owners and individual citizens weighed the costs of re-opening the global economy, fears of new outbreaks grew. A central question emerged: How much infection and loss of life will emerge amid the push to restart business?

Companies are rushing to readjust their office designs as they prepare to reopen workplaces amid the pandemic. Strategists and designers are putting aside past concerns about branding and flashy office amenities to focus on employee safety.

It's understandable for anyone near retirement to feel extra anxious. Just remember your best interests.

Declining state and local government spending really can make an economic downturn worse. And this recession is bad enough already.

Pandemic expected to magnify differences between healthy retailers and those with big financial troubles.

The announcement follows MLB's decision that refunds could be issued.

McGraw, Richard Allen Apr 1, 1946 - May 4, 2020 Richard Allen McGraw, 74, of Port Charlotte, Florida, died on May 4, 2020. Funeral .....

Herdegen, Richard Jan 31, 1940 - Apr 26, 2020 Richard Herdegen, 80, of Bradenton, FL, died on Apr 26, 2020. Funeral arrangements by: Shannon .....

Benedict, William Oct 1, 1942 - Apr 28, 2020 William Benedict, 77, of Bradenton, FL, died on Apr 28, 2020. Funeral arrangements by: Shannon .....

The team at I am Horse Racing would like to introduce our newest endeavor, a series entitled “Vet's Corner.” This new arm of our video and social media installments will focus on delving into many of the most common ailments, issues, and physical aspects associated with horses, sport horses, and racehorses. We will gather the nation's top minds to speak […]

The post I Am Horse Racing Helps Answer The Common Question: What Is Colic? appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Everybody wants to become the best in their industry offline, as well as online. For example, if you’re selling baby clothes online, then you probably want to be the best selling or the most appreciated eShop. If you have a travel blog, you definitely want to be an influencer for other travelers. Also, if your...

   https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/2009-03-19-followup.htm

Starting in May the National Park Service (NPS) will begin the reconstruction of Grand Canyon National Park’s popular South Kaibab Trail. The project will significantly improve the condition of the trail for both hikers and mule users alike. The project is expected to take anywhere from two to four years and will include resurfacing of the trail; stabilization and preventative maintenance to existing retaining walls; replacing retaining walls that have been lost to floods, slides, or erosion; repairing and aligning existing water diversion features; etc. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/nps-to-begin-trail-reconstruction-project-on-south-kaibab-trail-within-grand-canyon-np.htm

Each year in the spring (April – June), an increase in the turbidity of drinking (potable) water occurs at Grand Canyon National Park. Turbidity has no health effects.  https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/info-2009-04-01-turbid.htm

https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/nps-to-offer-pilot-shuttle-bus-service-from-grca-to-tusayan-again-this-year.htm

Grand Canyon National Park was once again invited to display its contracted MD 900 Explorer helicopter at the recent "Thunder in the Desert" Open House and Air Show at Luke Air Force Base on March 21 and 22 in Glendale, Arizona.  https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news-2009-04-02-luke.htm

The National Park Service (NPS) is now accepting public comments on the construction of a new Science and Resource Management Facility within Grand Canyon National Park. The NPS proposes to design and construct a facility for use by the Division of Science and Resource Management (SRM). In addition to providing necessary office and storage space, the SRM building will invite visiting scientists, students, and others to utilize classrooms and laboratories, offer training sessions, and have some exhibits and opportunities for experiential learning. This cutting edge facility will utilize alternative energy sources and water conservation technology. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/national-park-service-seeking-comments-on-construction-of-new-science-and-resource-management-facility-within-grand-canyon-national-park.htm

https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/grand-canyon-school-rediological-study.htm

The National Park Service and Arizona Public Service will be hosting a public event on Monday, May 18, at 11:00 a.m., to celebrate the installation of eighty-four photovoltaic solar panels at the Grand Canyon Visitor Center. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news-2009-05-12-aps.htm

The National Park Service is now accepting comments on mule operations and stock use in Grand Canyon National Park as the agency begins to develop an environmental assessment.  https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news-2009-05-22-stock.htm

On Tuesday, June 9, 2009, the National Park Service began a project to reconstruct the South Kaibab Trail in Grand Canyon National Park. The project is funded, in part, with funds from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/grand-canyon-national-park-begins-trail-reconstruction-project-using-funds-received-under-presidents-economic-recovery-plan.htm

https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/national-park-service-announces-availability-of-environmental-assessment-for-train-operations-in-grand-canyon-national-park.htm

A Finding of No Significant Impact (FONISI) was signed Thursday, July 16, by Michael D. Snyder, Regional Director for Intermountain Region of the National Park Service for the implementation of the Exotic Plant Management Plan for Grand Canyon. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/finding-of-no-significant-impact-signed-for-the-exotic-plant-management-plan-at-grand-canyon-national-park.htm

The National Park Service (NPS) and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will hold a meeting on Tuesday, July 28 to update an advisory panel on the agencies’ efforts to restore natural quiet in Grand Canyon National Park. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/national-park-service-and-federal-aviation-administration-to-hold-meeting-on-grand-canyon-overflights.htm

Four historic fire lookout towers in Grand Canyon National Park, two on the North Rim and two on the South Rim, have been listed on the National Historic Lookout Register. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/four-grand-canyon-national-park-lookout-towers-have-been-listed-on-the-national-historic-lookout-register.htm

Work recently began on renovations to the clinic building on the South Rim of Grand Canyon National Park.  https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news_2009-08-03_dispatch.htm

Grand Canyon National Park Superintendent Steve Martin has announced that an Environmental Assessment (EA) for Supai Camp Improvements is now available for public review and comment. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/environmental-assessment-for-improvements-at-supai-camp-within-grand-canyon-national-park-available-for-public-review-and-comment.htm

https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/sixteenth-annual-native-american-heritage-days-starts-august-13-on-north-rim-of-grand-canyon.htm

Grand Canyon National Park Superintendent Steve Martin today announced the availability of the Final Environmental Impact Statement and Assessment of Effect (FEIS/AEF) to update the park’s Fire Management Plan. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/national-park-service-releases-final-environmental-impact-statement-and-assessment-of-effect-to-update-grand-canyon-national-park-fire-management-plan.htm

https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news_2009-08-13_fatality.htm

Preliminary Data Indicate Humpback Chub Translocation Successful to Date https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news_2009-08-17_chub.htm

A Finding of No Significant Impact was signed on August 28, 2009, by Michael D. Snyder, Regional Director for the Intermountain Region of the National Park Service, for Train Operations at Grand Canyon National Park https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news_2009-08-31_trainea.htm

This year National Public Lands Day at Grand Canyon National Park will be commemorated with more than free admission and volunteer opportunities. Park staff and friends will also be celebrating the park’s first Dia de la Familia. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news_2009-09-01_npld-dia.htm

A Finding of No Significant Impact was signed today for improvements to Supai Camp at Grand Canyon National Park. These improvements will be funded in part through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA). https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news_2009-09-03_supai_fonsi.htm

https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/grand-canyon-national-park-to-celebrate-dia-de-la-familia-on-national-public-lands-day.htm

Grand Canyon National Park staff will soon begin the regular seasonal closure of many visitor services and facilities on the North Rim. However, the rim will remain open with limited services through November 29 or until snow closes Highway 67. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news_2009-09-30_nr_soft_closure.htm