9

Second 'a great result' - Hamilton

Lewis Hamilton said it was still a great result to finish second behind Fernando Alonso and remain firmly in the title hunt




9

'We must keep our feet on the ground' - di Montezemolo

Ferrari is not underestimating its rivals Red Bull and McLaren heading into the final two rounds of the season, despite Fernando Alonso taking an 11 point lead in the drivers' championship with victory at the Korean Grand Prix




9

Confident Webber 'relishing' prospect of fight back

Red Bull driver Mark Webber is relishing the challenge of coming from behind in the final two races of the season to take the championship




9

Massa expects 'big fight' with Ferrari

Felipe Massa expects a tough fight from Ferrari in Melbourne for the final spot on the podium and says it would be foolish to write off Red Bull after one tricky weekend




9

Bottas taking 'necessary measures' to return in Malaysia

Valtteri Bottas says he is taking the "necessary measures" to ensure he is declared fit to race in this weekend's Malaysian Grand Prix




9

'I won't bitch and moan because they're quicker' - Smedley

Williams head of vehicle performance Rob Smedley believes there is nothing wrong with Mercedes dominating the sport this year and says it is down to the other teams to catch up




9

The Dire Consequences of Trump's Suleimani Decision

Americans would be wise to brace for war with Iran, writes Susan Rice.

"Full-scale conflict is not a certainty, but the probability is higher than at any point in decades. Despite President Trump’s oft-professed desire to avoid war with Iran and withdraw from military entanglements in the Middle East, his decision to order the killing of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, Iran’s second most important official, as well as Iraqi leaders of an Iranian-backed militia, now locks our two countries in a dangerous escalatory cycle that will likely lead to wider warfare."




9

The battle of 'resistance' vs 'revolution' in the Middle East

The events surrounding the US assassination of Iranian Quds Force leader Major General Qassem Soleimani brought to the surface the two main ideological forces that now battle each other across the Middle East - the anti-imperial "resistance" of Iran and its Arab allies, and the freedom "revolution" of domestic protesters in the same lands. 




9

Rami Khouri's interview on Aljazeera TV discussing the appointment of the new Lebanese government.

Rami Khouri's interview on Aljazeera TV discussing the appointment of the new Lebanese government amidst continuing protests and clashes with police.




9

H-Diplo Review Essay 192 on Lawson. Anatomies of Revolution

Emily Whalen reviews Anatomies of Revolution by George Lawson (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2019).




9

There's No Such Thing as Good Liberal Hegemony

Stephen Walt argues that as democracies falter, it's worth considering whether the United States made the right call in attempting to create a liberal world order.




9

The Dire Consequences of Trump's Suleimani Decision

Americans would be wise to brace for war with Iran, writes Susan Rice.

"Full-scale conflict is not a certainty, but the probability is higher than at any point in decades. Despite President Trump’s oft-professed desire to avoid war with Iran and withdraw from military entanglements in the Middle East, his decision to order the killing of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, Iran’s second most important official, as well as Iraqi leaders of an Iranian-backed militia, now locks our two countries in a dangerous escalatory cycle that will likely lead to wider warfare."




9

The battle of 'resistance' vs 'revolution' in the Middle East

The events surrounding the US assassination of Iranian Quds Force leader Major General Qassem Soleimani brought to the surface the two main ideological forces that now battle each other across the Middle East - the anti-imperial "resistance" of Iran and its Arab allies, and the freedom "revolution" of domestic protesters in the same lands. 




9

Rami Khouri's interview on Aljazeera TV discussing the appointment of the new Lebanese government.

Rami Khouri's interview on Aljazeera TV discussing the appointment of the new Lebanese government amidst continuing protests and clashes with police.




9

H-Diplo Review Essay 192 on Lawson. Anatomies of Revolution

Emily Whalen reviews Anatomies of Revolution by George Lawson (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2019).




9

There's No Such Thing as Good Liberal Hegemony

Stephen Walt argues that as democracies falter, it's worth considering whether the United States made the right call in attempting to create a liberal world order.




9

Sutil has 'more than one option' for 2012

Adrian Sutil says he has more than one option for a race seat on 2012 as he looks to get a deal signed before the end of the year




9

Raikkonen 'very important' for Renault

Lotus Renault owner Gerard Lopez says that Kimi Raikkonen's acquisition is "one of the very important steps" to make the team more competitive




9

Lopez enjoys 'buzz' around team

Lotus Renault owner Gerard Lopez is excited that the recent driver announcements have created "a real buzz" around the team




9

'The order could be shaken up in 2012' - Raikkonen

Kimi Raikkonen is confident he has lost none of his speed since he last raced in Formula One in 2009 and reckons there could be a few surprises when he makes his return next year




9

Jarno Trulli slams 'less committed' pay drivers

Jarno Trulli has hit out at the growing influence of so-called 'pay drivers' in Formula One, accusing them of being 'less committed'




9

McLaren must work 'very quickly' - Lewis

Lewis Hamilton admitted that his McLaren team must work 'very quickly' to turn things around after finishing well off the pace of the Ferrari duo and Sebastian Vettel on Sunday




9

Kubica 'best of the rest'

Robert Kubica continued his impressive season for Renault after finishing as the 'best of the rest' behind the big three teams at the German Grand Prix




9

'I'll be back', insists Webber

Mark Webber vowed to continue his fight for a first drivers' title after a disappointing German Grand Prix saw him finish an unaccustomed sixth




9

Lauda expects Ferrari 'pasting'

Former three-time world champion Niki Lauda believes Ferrari will "get a pasting" when they face the sport's governing body next month over allegations of race fixing




9

There's No Such Thing as Good Liberal Hegemony

Stephen Walt argues that as democracies falter, it's worth considering whether the United States made the right call in attempting to create a liberal world order.




9

This Virus Is Tough, but History Provides Perspective: The 1968 Pandemic and the Vietnam War

Nathaniel L. Moir recounts the events of 1968: The war in Vietnam and extensive civil unrest in the United States — and yet another big problem that made life harder. In 1968, the H3N2 pandemic killed more individuals in the United States than the combined total number of American fatalities during both the Vietnam and Korean Wars.




9

How COVID-19 is Testing American Leadership

Joseph Nye suggests that a new U.S. administration might take a leaf from the success of the post-1945 American presidents that are described in Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump. The United States could launch a massive COVID-19 aid program like the Marshall Plan.




9

Oil's Collapse Is a Geopolitical Reset In Disguise

The world is on the cusp of a geopolitical reset. The global pandemic could well undermine international institutions, reinforce nationalism and spur de-globalization. But far-sighted leadership could also rekindle cooperation, glimmers of which appeared in the G-20’s offer of debt relief for some of the world’s poorest countries, a joint plea from more than 200 former national leaders for a more coordinated pandemic response and an unprecedented multinational pact to arrest the crash in oil markets.  




9

What Caused the COVID-19 Testing Deficit?

As the divergent experiences of the US and South Korea show, testing can be the difference between disease containment and catastrophe. Rather than relying on national governments to ensure the rapid development, production, and deployment of diagnostics during outbreaks, the world needs a global coordinating platform.




9

Romney's Reckless China Rhetoric Risks New Cold War

Rachel Esplin Odell argues for a wiser and more conservative strategy that resists the temptation to exaggerate the challenge posed by China.




9

Maxwell Taylor's Cold War: From Berlin to Vietnam

Nathaniel Moir reviews Maxwell Taylor's Cold War: From Berlin to Vietnam by Ingo Trauschweizer.




9

Africa in the news: The Uganda-EU deal, politics, airlines, and COVID-19 updates

Uganda and the European Union strengthen trade and business relationship Earlier this month, Uganda hosted a delegation from the European Union (EU) for the first-ever Uganda-Europe Business Forum. The forum is a part of a larger effort to “facilitate collaboration between private and public actors and partnership between Ugandan and European companies, in the framework…

       




9

Africa in the news: Debt relief in Somalia, government efforts to combat COVID-19, and new Boko Haram attacks

Debt relief in Somalia and other African countries On Wednesday, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) jointly announced that Somalia is now eligible for debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative. Successfully completing the HIPC program will reduce Somalia’s external debt from $5.2 billion currently to $557 million in about…

       




9

Africa in the news: COVID-19 impacts African economies and daily lives; clashes in the Sahel

African governments begin borrowing from IMF, World Bank to soften hit from COVID-19 This week, several countries and multilateral organizations announced additional measures to combat the economic fallout from COVID-19 in Africa. Among the actions taken by countries, Uganda’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 1 percentage point to 8 percent and directed…

       




9

Africa in the news: COVID-19, Côte d’Ivoire, and Safaricom updates

African governments take varying approaches to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 As of this writing, Africa has registered over 39,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 1,600 deaths, with most cases concentrated in the north of the continent as well as in South Africa. African countries have enacted various forms of lockdowns, external and internal border closures,…

       




9

Insight 219: Singapore in the Global Energy Transition

For decades, Singapore has been a premier refinery hub and gatekeeper between Asia and the Middle East, but its position is increasingly threatened as producer countries are shifting into the downstream activities that helped make Singapore the “Houston of Asia”. Oil and petrochemicals drive about one quarter of Singapore’s net exports. Greater competition in the global oil and gas value chain could take a heavy toll on the city-state’s national budget and economic growth prospects.




9

U.S. Intervention in Russia-Saudi Impasse Isn't Tenable (Radio)

Meghan L. O’Sullivan, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s Kennedy School, former National Security Council advisor, and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, discusses the oil market plunge, and the Russia-Saudi relationship. Hosted by Lisa Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney.




9

Organizational Responses to COVID-19 and Climate Change: A Conversation with Rebecca Henderson

Rebecca Henderson, the John and Natty McArthur University Professor at Harvard University, shared her perspectives on how large organizations are changing in response to the coronavirus pandemic and climate change in the newest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.”




9

Transatlantic Dialogue: The Missing Link in Europe’s Post-Covid-19 Green Deal?

This policy brief emphasizes that the European Green Deal's effectiveness in a post Covid-19 world will require the involvement of strategic partners, especially the US. In the context of a potential US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the consequential vacuum, it will be even more important to engage the US in implementing the GD. In light of divergence between the US and the EU during past climate negotiations (e.g. Kyoto, Copenhagen, and Paris), we suggest a gradual approach to US engagement with GD initiatives and objectives.




9

Oil's Collapse Is a Geopolitical Reset In Disguise

The world is on the cusp of a geopolitical reset. The global pandemic could well undermine international institutions, reinforce nationalism and spur de-globalization. But far-sighted leadership could also rekindle cooperation, glimmers of which appeared in the G-20’s offer of debt relief for some of the world’s poorest countries, a joint plea from more than 200 former national leaders for a more coordinated pandemic response and an unprecedented multinational pact to arrest the crash in oil markets.  




9

Low Prices, Full Storage Tanks: What's Next for the Oil Industry

When the economy slows, so does the demand for oil. Prices have plummeted and storage tanks are filled to capacity. We look at the future of the oil industry.




9

Was the TANF Welfare Program's Response to the Great Recession Adequate?


"It is fortunate that a major feature of American social policy is a series of programs, often referred to as the safety net, that are designed to provide people with cash and other benefits when they fall on hard times—which they are more likely to do during a recession," write the authors of a new report on the response of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program—the major federal welfare program that replaced Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) in 1996—to the Great Recession that lasted from December 2007 to June 2009.

In their report, "The Responsiveness of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program during the Great Recession," Ron Haskins, Vicky Albert, and Kimberly Howard write that "All in all, we conclude that the American system of balancing work requirements and welfare benefits worked fairly well, even during the most severe recession since the Depression of the 1930s."

Their report is based on three studies: (1) an examination of the changes in the TANF rolls compared to changes in AFDC rolls during previous recessions, plus changes in TANF rolls in relation to rising unemployment state-by-state; (2) a review of data on single mothers' likelihood to receive TANF benefits during the 2001 and 2007 recessions, their receipt of other program benefits, and what actions single mothers took to deal with the recession; and (3) interviews with 44 directors of state TANF programs to determine their state's response.

"An important question" noted by the authors at the outset "is whether the response of the nation's safety net program in general and the TANF program in particular was commensurate with the challenge posed by the huge level of unemployment during and following the Great Recession."

Some Results of the TANF Study

Haskins, Albert, and Howard arrived at a number of conclusions from the TANF/AFDC study, including:

  • TANF rolls increased more in the 2001 recession and the 2007 Great Recession than did AFDC during previous, pre-welfare reform (1996) recessions.
  • The increase in TANF rolls was greater during the period of rising unemployment in each state, which did not coincide exactly with the dates of the Great Recession, than during the official recession period nationally.
  • The "nation's safety net as a whole performed well during the Great Recession and prevented millions of people from falling into poverty."

"The nation experienced 51 different recessions and 51 different responses by the TANF program to the recession,” they write. "But the key point is that measuring the rise of the TANF caseload in response to the unique increase in unemployment in each state reveals TANF to have been more responsive to the recession."

Some Results of the Single Mothers Study

  • Compared with the 1990 recession before welfare reform, "single mothers were less likely to receive benefits from the TANF program during the 2001 and 2007 recessions."
  • Single mothers were more likely to receive other "safety net" help such as Unemployment Compensation, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (formerly food stamps), Supplemental Security Income, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and child care, school lunch and breakfast, and other benefits for their children.
  • In all the 1990, 2001, and 2007 recessions, "single mothers took action on their own" by finding jobs, living with family, and other ways to "weather the recession."
  • Based on income, "poverty among single mothers and their children was lower during the Great Recession than during the recession of 1990."

Given the array of available benefits, the authors conclude that:

a mother with two children earning even as little as $11,000 per year could and still can escape poverty, as measured by income that includes non-cash benefits and tax credits, because of the generosity of these benefits. In our view, the combination of strong work requirements and generous work support benefits is a reasonable policy, despite the fact that fewer mothers receive TANF now than in the past.

Some Results of the TANF Directors Study

"Arguably the people who know the most about the goals and operation of state TANF programs and how the programs responded to the recession are the state TANF directors," write Haskins, Albert, and Howard. "They were, after all, the point persons for state TANF programs before and during the Great Recession. Interviews with TANF directors can provide an insider's view of the TANF issues that we have so far analyzed from the outside." Some of their conclusions from these interviews include:

  • Most states did not struggle to pay for growing TANF rolls during the Great Recession.
  • Most state directors considered their state's response to the recession "as adequate or better."
  • The directors had suggestions for improving the TANF program, including having more flexibility in work participation rates, gaining access to the Contingency Fund, and placing greater emphasis on job training.

Some Policy Recommendations

Although the authors believe that the TANF program worked well, especially in conjunction with other safety net programs, they suggest some potential reforms:

  • TANF allows vocational training to count toward states fulfilling their work requirement, but only a maximum of 30 percent of the work requirement can be fulfilled by TANF recipients in education or training. In times of high unemployment, Congress could raise the percentage limit from 30 to 40 or even 50 percent when unemployment reaches some specified level in the state, given that most experts believe the unemployed should expand their skills through job training during recessions.
  • Congress should consider changing the 12-week limit on job search during periods of high unemployment to as much as six months, given that the average period of search before finding a job increases sharply during periods of high unemployment.

Download and read the full report for complete methodology, analysis, and data.

Authors

  • Fred Dews
     
 
 




9

It's time to stop reducing taxes on the wealthy


House Republicans recently approved the “Death Tax Repeal Act of 2015.”  If we care about our debt obligations, social mobility, or equality of opportunity, we should consider doing just the opposite: raising the tax and applying it to more of the super-wealthy.

Currently, the estate tax doesn't touch the first $5.43 million of an individual’s assets and the first $10.86 million of couples’ assets. The tax kicks in after that amount, eventually rising to a top rate of 40 percent.  

Proponents of repeal make a number of claims to make their case. Let’s examine the most common.

  1. The estate tax affects a significant portion of Americans. Only about 5,400 estates will pay any estate tax this year. That’s about 0.2% of all estates – that’s right, just two tenths of one percent.  That’s a fortieth of the 1970’s share. Americans worried about the Estate Tax have nothing to fear but fear itself. 
  2. The estate tax hurts small farms and businesses. In fact, the estate tax touches virtually no small farms or businesses. The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy estimated how many farm and business estates worth under $5 million paid any tax in 2013. Twenty did. Twenty small farms and businesses paid any estate tax in 2013. And those 20 estates faced an average tax rate of 4.9%. Only 660 farm estates—of any size—paid the tax in 2013, and 100 of those farms had assets worth over $20 million. The USDA estimates that 0.6% of all farm estates owed federal estate tax in 2013. This is because families who farm for a living have access to generous deductions: up to $1 million for continuing to farm the land for the next 10 years and up to $500,000 for adopting conservation easements. They can also delay payment and lighten their tax liability by gifting their land to heirs. Small businesses have similarly generous carve-out.
  3. Repealing the estate tax doesn't affect the budget, because it’s a small share of federal revenue. In 2014, the estate tax represented 0.6% of federal collections, or roughly $20 billion annually, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation. But part of the reason that’s so low is because Congress has increased the exemption and lowered the rate in recent years; in 2001, the top rate was 55% and the exemption was only $675,000. Still, even today, repealing the tax is costly. The JCT estimates that repeal would cost the government $269 billion over the next decade.
  4. The estate tax represents double taxation. Well, maybe. It is true that people  pay taxes on their income when earned and then may have to pay again when they pass it on to their heirs.  However, because the super-wealthy keep much of their assets as unrealized capital gains (55% for those estates worth over $100 million), the estate tax is the only way, right now, to tax these capital gains. In that sense it can be viewed as a partial corrective within our funhouse of a tax system. Some capital gains, to be sure, are the fruits of hard work and entrepreneurial creativity but a lot are simply the result of gains among those wealthy enough to participate in speculative ventures. 

One thing is true: repeal would mean a large tax break for the wealthiest 0.2% of the population. The 1,336 families with estates worth more than $20 million would get almost three-fourths of the benefit from the repeal and enjoy an average windfall of $10 million each, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. The 318 families with estates worth more than $50 million would see an average windfall of $20 million each.

These facts are often obscured by our penchant for individual stories. One Washington Post story for example, acknowledges many of the statistics above, but then goes on to give two examples of farmers who had to sell land to meet their tax burden, one of which is several decades old, when the exemption was much lower. Elected officials love these kinds of stories and tell them often. Are they unaware of the generous special provisions for this group?  Do they truly believe that very wealthy families are the ones we should be helping? Or are they thinking about who is going to finance their next campaign?

The estate tax is one of the most progressive aspects of our tax system. In a time of increasing inequality, it provides a way to counteract the formation of a “permanent ownership class.” If anything, we should consider raising the rate and lowering the exemption to pay down debt and invest in opportunities for the unlucky children at the bottom of the wealth ladder. We could start by closing the stepped-up basis loophole and raising the estate tax to Clinton-era levels. We could do so in a way that protects real farmers and small business owners. Wealthy heirs, meanwhile, will still do very well, much better than the rest of America. A serious estate tax would allow us to come closer to our national ideal, in which no child is born a prince, and every child can become as rich as a king.

Note: An earlier version of this post said that the estate tax only applies to assets in excess of the exemption, which is incorrect. The estate tax is levied on the entire estate but is offset by a credit equal to the tax on the first $5.43 million. This version is corrected.

Authors

Publication: Real Clear Markets
Image Source: © Tami Chappell / Reuters
      
 
 




9

COVID-19 has thrust universities into online learning⁠—how should they adapt?

There is one golden rule for flying with an infant or toddler: Do whatever it takes to get through the flight peacefully with no harm done. Every parent knows this means relaxing their standards. Planting your kid in front of an iPad screen or giving them not so healthy treats might not win you a…

       




9

What can COVID-19 teach us about strengthening education systems?

As cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States rise, more and more states have adopted shelter-in-place orders to curtail the pandemic. The disruption to most Americans’ daily lives has been drastic and sudden—and perhaps one of the most dramatic shifts was education’s move to a virtual setting. Even before the current pandemic forced school closures,…

       




9

Living with Uncertainty: Modeling China's Nuclear Survivability

A simplified nuclear exchange model demonstrates that China’s ability to launch a successful nuclear retaliatory strike in response to an adversary’s nuclear first strike has been and remains far from assured. This study suggests that China’s criterion for effective nuclear deterrence is very low.




9

Poll: What the American Public Likes and Hates about Trump's Nuclear Policies

The authors conducted a study which highlights how the U.S. public as a whole and various demographic groups view President Donald Trump's positions on nuclear weapons.




9

Maxwell Taylor's Cold War: From Berlin to Vietnam

Nathaniel Moir reviews Maxwell Taylor's Cold War: From Berlin to Vietnam by Ingo Trauschweizer.




9

Honda running 'very conservative' due to higher temps

Honda is running its engines on "very conservative" settings at the first race of the season in Australia for fear of damaging one of its four power units per car