Key manufactures conveyors and other equipment in both the U.S. and Europe, supports customers worldwide through its extensive sales and SupportPro service network and offers integration services, from pre-engineering to line start-up.

Emmepi Group says the objective of the acquisition is to further increase its geographic manufacturing footprint, enhancing its ability to offer a totally integrated solution, aligning with the demands of customers globally.

Part of the company’s GeoPack range of sustainability-minded products, the protein tray has been officially designated as biodegradable in industrial compost settings.

In the vast meat and seafood sector, packaging practices and innovations require continuous attention. Strict hygiene and quality standards impact all aspects of the packaging process. Recent developments in the industry have focused on ease-of-use, versatility, and sustainability.

For many of today’s top CPGs, packaging line integrations have become routine investments; necessary for meeting changing market demands and improving the overall efficiency of production lines. The relative success of a packaging line integration can be determined by answering “yes” to three questions

In this interview, Videojet’s Sherry Washburn discusses how recent improvements to soft-pigmented inks are facilitating coding and contrast printing for packaging.

MCS Inc. President David Loos says high-speed inkjet printers eliminate the need for adhesive labels by printing tracking codes, special offers and other promotional messages directly on secondary packaging.

With all but one of my children driving and displaying functional levels of independence, I recently decided it was time for me to revisit one of my first loves: playing the piano.

A note via Bank of America economists on expectations and wariness on US October CPI data due Wednesday at 8.30 am US Eastern time.

BoA expect core CPI to show an increase of 0.3% m/m month

• holding at 3.3% y/y
• would be the third consecutive month with a 3.3% core reading

BoA say that looking ahead, the rise is inflation tilted to the upside:

• "We see pro-growth fiscal policy, tariffs, and tighter immigration as potential sources of upside inflation risk over the coming years if they are implemented"

Higher inflation to come would slow/halt/reverse (you can pick more than one ;-)) Federal Reserve rate cuts.

• It is just a question of how far and how fast
• Rate cut last week does not mean that the job is done
• Labour market data today show pay growth still at high levels
• There is still some work to be done on underlying domestic inflation pressures

All that being said, Pill argues that there has been "substantial" disinflation in the UK already. To summarise, it just means that they are not necessarily going to cut rates at every coming meeting. However, they are making it clear that they do have the option to do so if need be.

Justin had the news from the People's Bank of China here on Monday:

• PBOC governor will maintain yuan exchange rate at a reasonable, balanced level

The PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized that the Bank will not let the yuan plummet without a fight:

• Will step up countercyclical adjustment
• Should resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot

Today is an example of the Bank pushing back on yuan weakness, with the reference rate set 300+ points stronger for the CNY than was expected (in the Reuters model).

Offshore yuan has jumped (lower USD/CNH as shown in the chart below):

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

And they are for EUR/USD at the 1.0930 and 1.0950 levels. If anything else, the expiries should help to keep price action more locked in that range in the session ahead. All that before we get to US trading of course, where we could see volatility and market action pick up before the weekend.

There are also some modest ones for USD/CAD and AUD/USD. However, given prevailing spot levels, the expiries are unlikely to feature into play.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0950 level. That sits near the 100-hour moving average at 1.0949 currently with the bigger picture focus being on the pair's 100-day moving average at 1.0935. Keeping below both is underscoring a more downside bias, so the expiries here adds an extra layer to that for the session ahead at least.

Then, there is a relatively large one for USD/JPY at the 149.00 level. If anything else, that could put a floor on price action at least until the expiries roll off later in the day. That especially with it being a partial US holiday to start the new week, providing little incentive for markets to go running.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are some large ones on the board for today but may not feature into play given the current spot price levels.

The one for EUR/USD is seen at the 1.1000 mark but as the dollar holds firmer, it's not likely to factor into price action in the session ahead. There are also some large ones on the board for the pair in the days ahead, so we'll see if those will come into play.

Then, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6675 and 0.6775 levels. Recent price action for the pair is more of a consolidation around 0.6700 to 0.6750, so it might take a bit to break the mold in the session ahead. To the downside, there is additional support from the 100-day moving average at 0.6693 so that could limit any drop. And with the dollar keeping steadier, topside potential remains capped for now.

So, that's the state of play with regards to the larger expiries for the day.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment might be a bit more muted in the session ahead. The dollar is keeping steadier across the board, so that continues to be the running theme since two weeks ago. There's no significant extension of that this week but there's no reversal signs either as of yet.

In terms of expiries, there is a large one for EUR/USD at the 1.0950 level but given the price action we're seeing, it isn't likely to feature into play. But just in case it does, do take note of it as that could limit any upside pullback in the session ahead at least.

That being said, the 100 and 200-hour moving averages at 1.0918 and 1.0947 respectively as well as the 100-day moving average at 1.0936 are more pertinent levels to watch out for in case buyers do try and make a play.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

That being for AUD/USD at the 0.6700 level. When paired together with the technical predicament here, the expiries add another layer for buyers to have to chew through in the session ahead. As such, that might help to limit gains in European morning trade at least. That considering the dollar is also continuing to keep steadier throughout the week.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. It isn't one that ties too much with any key technical levels but the expiries could help to just keep a lid on price action for the session ahead. That considering there is little else to work with for the time being. But stronger resistance is seen closer to the 200-day moving average at 1.0871 and then the 100-hour moving average at 1.0880 currently.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0885 level. It isn't one that holds much technical significance, especially with the 100-hour moving average at 1.0866 pinning price action down for now. But it could play a role in limiting any upside extensions in the session ahead at least.

Then, there is one for USD/CAD at the 1.3800 level. That alongside the 100-hour moving average of 1.3788 could help to provide a floor for price action, at least for the session ahead for the pair.

All of this considering the lack of key catalysts to get major currencies moving to kick start the week of course.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. It coincides with the 100-hour moving average currently, which is where price action was held up in trading yesterday. As such, the expiries alongside the key near-term level there should limit any upside extensions in the session ahead at least. Not to mention that there is a large one at the same level there for tomorrow.

Then, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6675 level. It isn't one that holds much technical significance so I wouldn't the expiries to provide too much of a draw. However, it could still anchor down price action during the session especially with the 100 and 200-hour moving averages seen at 0.6688-00 currently.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. The size of the expiries is noteworthy but it might not feature too much into play as the dollar is keeping firmer this week. Besides that, there is the 100-hour moving average at 1.0834 keeping a ceiling on price action for now. As such, that could limit the influence and impact of the expiries. But if we do see it come into play, expect that to be a spot in anchoring any upside extensions.

There will be more expiries towards the downside under 1.0800 in the day ahead, so there's that to consider as well.

Besides that, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6670 level. It isn't one that ties to any technical significance again, but it could just keep price action a little stickier with little else to work with in the session ahead. Near-term upside for the pair is more limited by the 100-hour moving average at 0.6689 currently.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are quite a number on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold.

The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.0780 level through to 1.0800. That might keep price action locked in for a while until we get to the euro area PMI data later. If there is downside surprises to the data, we could even see the expiries at 1.0750 get looped into play. That might provide some base for price action if the data stirs up appetite for a 50 bps rate cut by the ECB for December.

Then, there is one for USD/JPY at the 152.00 level and that could provide a bit of a floor to any retracement in price action we're seeing on the day. That at least until the expiries roll off. But again, the bond market remains the more influential driver for the pair at this stage. So, keep that in mind.

There is also one for USD/CAD at the 1.3810 level, and that sits in between the key hourly moving averages at 1.3802-20 currently. As such, that might keep price action in check above the 1.3800 level after the BOC yesterday.

And lastly, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6640 level. I wouldn't attach too much technical significance to it though but it may yet just act as a bit of a magnet for price action before rolling off. That is if risk sentiment continues to stay more muted and pensive in general. The 200-day moving average at 0.6628 remains the more attractive level to watch for the pair currently, with upside potential more limited closer to the 100-hour moving average at 0.6676.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

The ones for EUR/USD are seen at the 1.0800 and 1.0820 levels. The ones at the former held price action yesterday before rolling off and the ones today should keep downside price action more limited in between the key levels. Looking at the near-term chart, we are seeing price hold in between the 100 and 200-hour moving averages of 1.0809 and 1.0838. So, that is also boxing things in going into the session ahead.

Then, there is one for USD/CAD at the 1.3855 level. It isn't one that holds any technical significance but may just anchor price action before we get to the Canadian retail sales data later in the day at least.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to really take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0800 level. Alongside the 100-hour moving average nearby at 1.0802 currently, it is likely to keep a lid on price action in the session ahead. That especially with higher yields continuing to underpin the dollar in general to start the new week. But the range for the day is relatively narrow, so we might see some extension plays but arguably limited by the expiries above. If anything, the 200-hour moving average at 1.0827 will act as a "safety net" of sorts in limiting any outsized price extensions with little catalysts for the time being.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

It's the same one for EUR/USD as seen yesterday, at the 1.0800 level. The expiries today are relatively large and could provide a draw/magnet for price action in the session ahead. That could very well keep the price range more limited, alongside key near-term levels.

The 200-hour moving average, seen at 1.0820 currently, is still providing a ceiling for any upside extensions. And price action is trading narrowly in between that and the 100-hour moving average, seen at 1.0803 currently. So, the expiries at 1.0800 adds to some pull in and around those levels.

That until they roll off later in the day or we get a key catalyst of sorts, which isn't likely given the lack of items on the economic calendar until US trading.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0775 and 1.0850 levels. The expiries are sandwiching the spot price at the moment with price action this week largely contained in between 1.0780 through to 1.0825. As such, the expiries will add to those defensive layers on either side.

That being said, the euro side of the equation will come into focus with plenty of CPI and GDP data in the day(s) ahead. So, just be wary of that.

In terms of technicals, the pair is consolidating somewhat after testing the August low of 1.0777. Buyers are holding on somewhat with the near-term chart also reflecting that, with price action now just above its 100 and 200-hour moving averages of 1.0809-15. But I would argue getting above the Friday high of 1.0839 will do more to convince of a potential turnaround for buyers. So, keep that in mind as well.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level and that is likely to limit price action until we get to the euro area inflation data later. The numbers there offers a risk to the single currency, but there is also still a ceiling from the 200-day moving average at 1.0868. That will be a key technical level to watch in the day ahead.

Then, there is one for USD/CHF at the 0.8650 level. With price action holding below the 100-day moving average of 0.8677 in the past few days, the expiries here could keep things more locked in until traders feel comfortable to chase the next key technical push in the pair. Just be wary that there is another large set of expiries at the same level for tomorrow too.

And lastly, there is one for EUR/GBP at the 0.8350 level. It isn't one that holds much technical significance but could offer a bit of a floor to price action after the rise yesterday, in which the pound was dragged down amid the UK budget while the euro perked up on CPI and GDP data.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

Justin is away for today. This is my sad imitation of his awesome option expiry post ;-)

Justin will be back on Monday.

EUR/USD

• 1.0900 (EUR1.1bn), 1.0840 (EUR863m)

USD/CAD

• 1.3940 (US$693m), 1.3885 (US$650m), 1.3900 (US$457m)

GBP/USD

• 1.2900 (GBP638m), 1.2850 (GBP600.4m), 1.2800 (GBP490m)

AUD/USD

• 0.6700 (AUD451m)

NZD/USD

• 0.6100 (NZD720m)

USD/CNY

• 7.1500 ($854m)

EUR/GBP

• 0.8340 (EUR719m), 0.8400 (EUR328m), 0.8200 (EUR305m)

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 level. The figure level isn't one that holds any technical significance but the expiries could well help to box in price action in the session ahead. That without much fresh headlines involving the US election in the meantime. However, with the dollar under pressure, there is still a chance of European traders following through on the earlier price action. So, that's something to be wary about.

Then, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6600 level. The expiries are pretty huge and sits near the 200-hour moving average of 0.6599 currently. But the pair is largely driven by dollar dynamics to start the week, with the greenback opening with a gap down on US election sentiment. That is still the key driver to watch in the session(s) ahead but just note of the 200-day moving average at 0.6627 for the pair. That will be the bigger key level to watch on the charts for now.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

And they are for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 and 1.0900 levels. Considering the focus on the US election, this will keep price action more boxed in going into European trading and before we get to the election rush later in the day.

Besides that, market sentiment will be largely driven by election headlines over the next few sessions more so than anything else.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. But on a day like this, the influence of the expiries is far from the first thing in driving or impacting trading sentiment. It's all about the US election and the momentum flows riding from the results and emotions. As such, I wouldn't place much emphasis on the large one at 1.0725 currently for EUR/USD.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0725 and 1.0775 levels. To some degree, the expiries might just lock price action in between these levels but it's all about post-election sentiment now. And momentum flows will be the key driver of the moves, in particular the dollar. For now though, the greenback is seeing a slight pullback to yesterday's gains. So, the ones at 1.0775 could help to just keep a lid on things until we get to US trading at least.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

And again, they are all for EUR/USD layered in between 1.0750 through to 1.0800. Post-election sentiment is still the name of the game in driving FX flows now, so the expiries are just secondary drivers alongside everything else at the moment. That being said, they could play a role in keeping price action more boxed in until we get to US trading again later.

There aren't any key risk events on the calendar to really impact EUR/USD sentiment. So, it's all about how the post-election flows will settle as we look towards the end of the week.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 level. The daily lows last week were held by the figure level, so the expiries will add another layer to that as we get the new week underway at least. With the bond market absent to start the week, there might not be too much appetite for traders to chase any outsized moves.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 and 1.0625 levels. The pair is being pressured to the downside, touching its lowest levels since April now as the dollar continues to rampage forward. As such, that will put added emphasis on key support from the April low of 1.0601. The expiries above will just add a bit of a defensive layer as well, at least for the session ahead.

There will also be another notable one at 1.0600 for tomorrow, so just keep that in your back pocket in case. But for now, the post-election dollar sentiment continues to be the number one driver.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

The Chinese market and related global-growth proxies got excited about potential fiscal stimulus in October. After a flurry of buying, there has been some consolidation as we waited for the details.

Those details came on Friday and just before that, the market tried to break higher in a front-run of potentially larger stimulus. Beijing didn't deliver and the market was slow to digest that at first.

Today though, it looks like disappointment is setting in as the MCHI ETF falls into the October gap. The threat of tariffs combined with lackluster domestic growth make for a bad combination. Given how late the market was to pile into this theme, there are going to be many people underwater very quickly.

The US CPI will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET. What is expected?

• October Headline CPI expected to rise by 0.2% MoM, which is the same as last month. The forecasted range is 0.1 to 0.3%.
• YoY Headline CPI expected to increase to 2.6%, up from 2.4%, with a forecast range of 2.3 to 2.6%. A change of 0.0% will fall out of the YoY calculation this month.
• Core CPI projected to rise 0.3% MoM and 3.3% YoY, matching the previous month. The forecast range is 0.2 to 0.3% MoM and 3.2 to 3.4% Y/Y. A year ago, a gain of 0.2% falls out of the calculation.

The US PPI will be released on Thursday with the expectations of 0.2% for the MoM headline and 0.3% for the core measure.

Fed's Barkin this morning on inflation kept it simple saying::

• Inflation might be coming under control or might risk getting stuck above Fed 2% target.

Kashkari had more to say about inflation today with different influences. He said.

• Uncertainty exists around the impact of new government policies on inflation.
• A one-time tariff increase is transitory but could become a sustained issue if it escalates, introducing inflation risks.
• Immigration policy changes could have a significant effect on inflation, but the outcome is uncertain.
• Inflation from new leases will take a couple of years to work through the system.
• Housing inflation is expected to return to normal levels, but it may take a year or two.
• If inflation surprises to the upside before December, it may affect policy decisions.
• Current long-term yield increases don’t seem to reflect heightened inflation expectations.
• Higher productivity could suggest a higher neutral rate, potentially influencing future rate cuts.

CPI data from the US due today, Wednesday, November 13, 2024.

Greg popped up a preview earlier:

• US CPI to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for 0.2% MoM

In a recent note, BMO previewed the data also. Analysts at the bank suggest that any significant influence from recent storms on inflation data is likely limited, meaning market reactions to any deviation in core inflation—either upward or downward—may be pronounced.

The consensus forecast calls for a steady +0.3% rise in core CPI for the month, with expectations leaning toward a possible upside surprise.

A +0.4% reading or higher would make waves, particularly against the backdrop of the recent election results. The logic suggests that if inflation was already ticking up before the GOP’s victory, the added impact of tariffs and potential trade conflicts could fuel further inflationary momentum. However, BMO analysts also point out that while targeted tariffs may not universally drive up prices, this assumption currently shapes US rates market sentiment. With this market outlook in mind, BMO expects that an upside surprise in October’s inflation numbers could have a meaningful impact on yields, increasing their upward trajectory.

At present, actual inflation data is seen as the most direct factor that could push 10-year yields beyond the 4.50% threshold. A softer-than-expected core CPI reading could trigger a rally in the Treasury market, though there appears to be a limit to how much the market will temper expectations for inflation following Trump’s victory. Instead, BMO anticipates the market will continue to define a trading range in this post-election landscape, characterized by a mix of cautious optimism and prevailing skepticism.

Japanese wholesale prices, the PPI or CGPI:

+0.2% m/m

• expected 0.0%, prior 0.0%

+3.4% y/y

• expected +3.0%, prior +2.8%

The higher results will be a bit of a tailwind for the yen, at the margin. Not too much though, there is the huge monetary policy divergence that is weighing on the hapless yen to contend with.

Of note is that renewed yen falls pushed up import costs for some goods

The Bank of Japan is wary of yen weakness pushing up prices, the Bank wants inflation but not like that. The Bank wants inflation coming from wage growth pushing up demand. The Bank has said it'll consider raising rates to help slow or stop the yen decline. But political pressure is on the Bank not to hike until wages are seen rising at the next round of wage negotiations in (Japan's) spring.

---

The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI)

• its a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output
• is calculated by the Bank of Japan

Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the price change that consumers see for a basket of goods and services, the CGPI focuses on the change in the prices of goods sold by companies.

The PPI reflects some of cost pressures faced by producers

• its based on a basket of goods that represents the range of products produced within the Japanese economy, including items such as:
  • raw materials like metals and chemicals
  • semi-finished goods
  • and finished products
  • different weights are assigned to each category within the index based on its contribution to the overall economy.
• it does not account for the quality improvements in goods and services over time, which might lead to overestimation of inflation
  • additionally, it reflects only the prices of domestically produced goods, leaving out the impact of imported goods

The PPI can be used as a guide to inflationary pressures in the economy:

• If producers are facing higher costs, they may pass these on to consumers, leading to higher consumer prices.

In a big step for decentralized technology, Deutsche Telekom MMS has partnered with Meta Pool as part of its Enterprise Node Operator (ENO) program, becoming the first telecommunications giant to operate a validator node on the NEAR blockchain. This collaboration not only enhances NEAR’s network security and decentralization but also signals a new era of enterprise-driven blockchain adoption, powered by Meta Pool.

Meta Pool, a leader in liquid staking solutions on NEAR, developed the ENO program to connect established industry leaders with the decentralized ecosystem. By joining this initiative, Deutsche Telekom provides NEAR with enterprise-grade infrastructure that boosts both network reliability and performance. This partnership marks a milestone in Meta Pool’s mission to transform the decentralized ecosystem, elevating NEAR’s technology to new levels of scalability and security through trusted industry partnerships.

About Meta Pool

Meta Pool is a multi-chain liquid staking ecosystem and a DAO with multi-chain governance on NEAR and Ethereum. It offers Vote-to-Earn governance rewards, Liquid Staking Tokens on Ethereum, NEAR, Solana, Aurora, ICP, and Q, and Solana's first restaking aggregator, supporting mpSOL, jitoSOL, bSOL, and SOL. Meta Pool makes liquid staking simple and accessible across multiple blockchains, with plans for further expansion.

A Visionary Collaboration for Decentralized AI and Blockchain Innovation

Meta Pool’s (https://www.metapool.app/) ENO program was designed to bridge traditional and decentralized worlds, creating a robust and resilient network on NEAR through partnerships with industry leaders. By joining this initiative, Deutsche Telekom empowers NEAR with the infrastructure to support decentralized applications at scale, opening doors for new advancements in AI, blockchain scalability, and multi-chain interoperability. With Meta Pool’s ENO program as the foundation, Deutsche Telekom is taking a leap toward reimagining the future of decentralized networks.

"NEAR stands out as an ecosystem that shares our vision of combining blockchain and AI with a decentralized approach that prioritizes data privacy and security," said Oliver Nyderle, Head of Digital Trust & Web3 Infrastructure at Deutsche Telekom MMS. "Together, we’re breaking new ground and building a future that connects these technologies in ways never seen before."

Meta Pool, Deutsche Telekom, and NEAR: Building a User-First, Decentralized Future

In an era where data sovereignty and transparency are paramount, Meta Pool’s ENO program brings companies like Deutsche Telekom into the NEAR network, securing blockchain and AI solutions that empower users. This partnership sets the stage for a privacy-focused, decentralized future, championed by industry leaders committed to the transformative power of blockchain.

“This partnership is a turning point for NEAR, Meta Pool, and our Enterprise Node Operator program,” said Claudio Cossio, Meta Pool’s co-founder. “With Deutsche Telekom’s world-class infrastructure expertise, we’re taking NEAR’s protocol to unprecedented levels of decentralization and resilience.”

NEAR Protocol - A Unique Foundation for Decentralized Innovation

NEAR is a high-performance, environmentally sustainable Layer 1 blockchain built to host decentralized applications for millions of users. Thanks to its unique sharding technology, NEAR enables fast, energy-efficient transactions, making it a “green” alternative within blockchain technology. NEAR aligns with Meta Pool’s mission to advance accessible, eco-friendly blockchain solutions that support a more inclusive digital future.

Through Meta Pool’s ENO program, Deutsche Telekom gains access to cutting-edge blockchain insights, reinforcing its leadership in decentralized AI. This partnership reflects a shared commitment to exploring Web3 possibilities, setting the stage for a more transparent, secure, and innovative digital world.

Later today, Wednesday, 13 November, we get the US consumer inflation data for October 2024

• due at 1330 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time

Previews posted already:

• US CPI to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for 0.2% MoM

• US CPI data due Wednesday - possible upside surprise.
• US inflation data this week expected to show core CPI moving sideways - risk ahead higher

OK, what to expect. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.

Taking a look at the range of expectations compared to the median consensus (the 'expected' in the screenshot above) for the key data points:

CPI Headline y/y, expected 2.6% with the range showing:

• 2.3% - 2.7%

CPI Headline m/m expected 0.2% with the range showing:

• 0.1 to 0.3%

CPI excluding food and energy (the core rate of inflation) y/y expected 3.3% with the range showing:

• 3.2 - 3.4%

CPI excluding food and energy (the core rate of inflation) m/m expected 0.3% with the range showing:

• 0.2 to 0.4%

***

Why is knowledge of such ranges important?

Data results that fall outside of market low and high expectations tend to move markets more significantly for several reasons:

• Surprise Factor: Markets often price in expectations based on forecasts and previous trends. When data significantly deviates from these expectations, it creates a surprise effect. This can lead to rapid revaluation of assets as investors and traders reassess their positions based on the new information.

• Psychological Impact: Investors and traders are influenced by psychological factors. Extreme data points can evoke strong emotional reactions, leading to overreactions in the market. This can amplify market movements, especially in the short term.

• Risk Reassessment: Unexpected data can lead to a reassessment of risk. If data significantly underperforms or outperforms expectations, it can change the perceived risk of certain investments. For instance, better-than-expected economic data may reduce the perceived risk of investing in equities, leading to a market rally.

• Triggering of Automated Trading: In today’s markets, a significant portion of trading is done by algorithms. These automated systems often have pre-set conditions or thresholds that, when triggered by unexpected data, can lead to large-scale buying or selling.

• Impact on Monetary and Fiscal Policies: Data that is significantly off from expectations can influence the policies of central banks and governments. For example, in the case of the inflation data due today, weaker than expected will fuel speculation of nearer and larger Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts. A stronger (i.e. higher) CPI report will diminish such expectations. the December meeting is in focus right now.

• Liquidity and Market Depth: In some cases, extreme data points can affect market liquidity. If the data is unexpected enough, it might lead to a temporary imbalance in buyers and sellers, causing larger market moves until a new equilibrium is found.

• Chain Reactions and Correlations: Financial markets are interconnected. A significant move in one market or asset class due to unexpected data can lead to correlated moves in other markets, amplifying the overall market impact.

• Fed speakers on energy, the economy, and maybe policy due on Wednesday
• US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they're crucial to know)
• AUD traders heads up - Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock speaks Thursday
• The argument for a near-term Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut remains very thin
• Japan's Seven & i Holdings is considering a management buyout
• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann speaking Wednesday
• Australia - "Wage inflation is moderating as expected"
• PBoC promised stronger damping to support CNY, and that's what are seeing
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1991 (vs. estimate at 7.2305)
• Dogecoin catches a bid on Trump's new DOGE department headed by Musk
• Trump names Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy to lead Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)
• Australia data - Wage Price Index for Q3 2024: +0.8% q/q (expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%)
• Japan PPI (October) +0.2% m/m (expected 0%) and +3.4% y/y (expected +3.0%)
• Barclays on oil - current market dynamics relatively stable, doesn't foresee major shifts
• ECB Interest Rate Forecast: Deutsche Bank's 7 reasons for projecting a lower terminal rate
• BoA expect a 4% EPS benefit for S&P 500 equites from Trump corporate tax cuts
• US CPI data due Wednesday - possible upside surprise.
• Green shoots in China? Excavator sales grew 15% in October
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 12 Nov: Bitcoin hits $90K. Stocks fall. USD moves higher.
• NY Fed Perli says there's been more friction in money mkts lately, repo rate rise orderly
• Amazon’s Bezos sells US$1.25bn of shares
• US indices close lower on the day. No new records today.
• Bitcoin trades above $90,000 for the first time. It broke the $80,000 level on Monday
• Trade ideas thread - Wednesday, 13 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Small ranges prevailed during Asia time with many traders content to wait until the US inflation data later.

• US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they're crucial to know)

Data events during the session here were lower-tier. We had PPI data from Japan coming in higher than expected. Renewed yen weakness pushed up import costs for some goods. At the margin, an argument can be made that the data was supportive of a nearer-term Bank of Japan rate hike. Against this is, of course, is the new political pressure on the Bank to not hike until wages are seen rising at the next round of wage negotiations in (Japan's) spring. Many months away. The Bank of Japan next meet on December 18 - 19.

USD/JPY moved a little higher, but didn’t get to 155.00. As I post its around the middle of its session range circa 154.80.

Data from Australia showed wage growth moderating a little. This is not sufficient for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its cash rate any time soon. The next meeting is December 9 – 10, and then in February (17 – 18).

Earlier this week People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized that the Bank will not let the yuan plummet without a fight:

• Will step up countercyclical adjustment
• Should resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot

Today the Bank set the USD/CNY reference rate more than 300 points lower than model estimates (ie a stronger yuan). The Bank delivered on its word to support the yuan. Offshore yuan has jumped (lower USD/CNH).

Bitcoin sat near US$88K.

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 and 1.0650 levels. The former in particular will continue to be a notable one, adding another layer to key support at the figure level for the time being. As such, the expiries are likely to once again keep price action locked in until we get to US trading later at least.

As an aside, just be wary of the larger option expiries at the same level of 1.0600 through the week. And on Friday, EUR/USD also has a very large one pinned at 1.0700. So, just be wary of that in case.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

Why it's important?

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.

In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.

Distribution of forecasts for CPI

CPI Y/Y

• 2.7% (2%)
• 2.6% (56%) - consensus
• 2.5% (28%)
• 2.4% (12%)
• 2.3% (2%)

CPI M/M

• 0.3% (17%)
• 0.2% (73%) - consensus
• 0.1% (10%)

Core CPI Y/Y

• 3.4% (8%)
• 3.3% (81%) - consensus
• 3.2% (11%)

Core CPI M/M

• 0.4% (4%)
• 0.3% (82%) - consensus
• 0.2% (14%)

Analysis

We can ignore the headline CPI as the market will focus on the Core figures. We can notice that we have a pretty strong consensus and not much skew on either side.

Nonetheless, there's been a consistent bid in the US Dollar going into this report with Treasury yields higher and stocks kinda rangebound. The market might have already assigned some premium to a higher than expected print, so there's some risk of a short-term "sell the fact" reaction on a higher than expected number.

It goes without saying that a bigger than expected upside surprise should see the momentum increasing immediately with the US Dollar likely rallying across the board and Treasury yields shooting higher.

On the other hand, a soft print will likely see the US Dollar and Treasury yields falling, although one can argue that it's just going to provide a pullback to go long the US Dollar and short bonds again at even better levels as future conditions will likely see inflation getting stuck above the target or even moving back higher.

Fundamental Overview

The puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might have also seen some pre-positioning in the past couple of days into a potentially hot US CPI report today.

At the latest Fed’s decision, Fed Chair Powell said that they expect bumps on inflation and that one or two bad data months on inflation won’t change the process. This keeps the 25 bps cut in December in place even if we get higher inflation readings.

The market though is forward-looking, and the rise in Treasury yields showed that the market sees risks to the inflation outlook. Moreover, the red sweep could increase those fears if the progress on inflation stalls, or worse, reverses.

The market might have already assigned some premium to a higher than expected print, so there's some risk of a short-term "sell the fact" reaction on a higher than expected number.

It goes without saying that a bigger than expected upside surprise should see the momentum increasing immediately with the US Dollar likely rallying across the board and Treasury yields shooting higher.

On the other hand, a soft print will likely see the US Dollar and Treasury yields falling, although one can argue that it's just going to provide a pullback to go long the US Dollar and short bonds again at even better levels as future conditions will likely see inflation getting stuck above the target or even moving back higher.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD broke through the key support zone around the 1.0777 following the Trump’s victor, retested it and eventually continued lower. We are now testing another key level at 1.06 handle, and this is where the buyers are stepping in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally back into the 1.0777 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.05 handle next.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. We can expect the sellers to lean on it to position for the break below the 1.06 handle, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.0777 level.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 1.0630 level where we have the trendline for confluence. This is where the sellers are likely to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for the break below the 1.06 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.0777 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today, we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

Fundamental Overview

The puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might have also seen some pre-positioning in the past couple of days into a potentially hot US CPI report today.

At the latest Fed’s decision, Fed Chair Powell said that they expect bumps on inflation and that one or two bad data months on inflation won’t change the process. This keeps the 25 bps cut in December in place even if we get higher inflation readings.

The market though is forward-looking, and the rise in Treasury yields showed that the market sees risks to the inflation outlook. Moreover, the red sweep could increase those fears if the progress on inflation stalls, or worse, reverses.

The market might have already assigned some premium to a higher than expected print, so there's some risk of a short-term "sell the fact" reaction on a higher than expected number.

It goes without saying that a bigger than expected upside surprise should see the momentum increasing immediately with the US Dollar likely rallying across the board and Treasury yields shooting higher.

On the other hand, a soft print will likely see the US Dollar and Treasury yields falling, although one can argue that it's just going to provide a pullback to go long the US Dollar and short bonds again at even better levels as future conditions will likely see inflation getting stuck above the target or even moving back higher.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF broke through the key downward trendline following Trump’s victory and, after a brief pullback, continued higher as the trend in the US Dollar remains skewed to the upside.

We now have an upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. If we get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to lean on it to position for a rally into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the 0.85 handle.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have another minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to push into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to start targeting new lows.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much to add here as the buyers will look for a bounce around the trendline, while the sellers will look for a break. The US CPI report today is going to be a major catalyst, so it would be better to wait for the release before taking any position. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today, we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – In response to today's violence at the U.S. Capitol Building, the following statement can be attributed to NAB President and CEO Gordon Smith:

Washington, D.C. -- PILOT, NAB's technology innovation initiative, will be accepting submissions for the PILOT Innovation Challenge through 5 p.m. ET on July 9. The program will provide mentorship and promotion to winning proposals, along with an opportunity to demonstrate their products at NAB Show in Las Vegas, October 9-13, 2021.