Mar 15, 2024

Europe after the Russo-Ukrainian War must develop a new security structure to defend against any Russian aggression. The safest option is a non-offensive, confidence-building defense. This option includes proposals such as the “spider in the web” strategy and the “porcupine” strategy to provide for European security in a region threatened by Russian expansion—without relying on the threat of nuclear war.

Apr 12, 2024

The share of Russians who would like to leave Russia for permanent residence in another country has reached a record low, according to the results of a national poll conducted by Russia’s Levada Center on March 21-27, 2024.  Of the countries Russians were eager to relocate to, the U.S. topped the list (11%), followed by Germany (8%) and Italy and Turkey (6% each). China ranked 10-11 along with Canada.That seven out of the top 11 countries Russians would like to relocate to are members of the collective West, with 46% interested in moving to these countries, also shows the limits of the Kremlin’s efforts to instill anti-Western sentiments in the Russian public.

Mar 14, 2024

Stephen Walt writes that those who favor foreign policy restraint believe the United States should trade and invest in other countries, encourage other states to do the same, and be open to managed immigration instead of building walls in a fit of xenophobia.

Apr 3, 2024

Only a small handful of people in the world have sat at the negotiating table with the North Koreans and extensively interacted with them. Yet, this knowledge is fragmented and has not been collected or analyzed in a systematic manner. This report captures the findings from in-depth, one-on-one interviews with former senior negotiators from the United States and South Korea, who gained unique knowledge about North Korean negotiating behavior by dealing directly with their high-level North Korean counterparts. 

These negotiators collectively represent a body of negotiation experience and expertise starting from the early 1990s to late 2019, when North Korea ceased all negotiations with the United States. During that time, the conditions for productive negotiation changed dramatically – indeed, the conditions for the 1994 U.S.-North Korea Agreed Framework negotiations were much more favorable than during the Six-Party Talks of the mid-2000s or the Season of Summits during 2018-2019. For the “Negotiating with North Korea: Key Lessons Learned from Negotiators’ Genesis Period” project, a spotlight was placed on former senior negotiators’ early-stage experience preparing for and engaging in negotiations with the North Koreans. In doing so, tacit knowledge was captured to serve as a resource for future negotiators to inform and accelerate their own genesis period.

Apr 8, 2024

Joseph Nye argues that the "one China" formula, if combined with other measures to bolster deterrence against any sudden acts of aggression, can still help to keep the peace.

Apr 18, 2024

This was originally published in The Hill on April 18, 2024.

Apr 7, 2024

Juliette Kayyem argues that the Biden administration should lay out transparent plans to safeguard the electoral process no matter who is ultimately sworn in.

Apr 29, 2024

Kyrgyzstan is currently at a critical geopolitical juncture in which it is forced to
confront its longstanding ties with Russia against a backdrop of internal and external
pressures towards autocracy. Once celebrated as the ‘island of democracy’ in Central
Asia, the small nation faces significant challenges in light of internal authoritarian
tendencies and external pressure following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in
February 2022. This report, therefore, examines the role of Kyrgyzstan within the
global democracy versus autocracy debate that has intensified in the past two years
and assesses President Japarov’s neutrality with regards to Russia’s invasion and
Bishkek’s shifting allegiances.

This report relies on a qualitative methodology that builds on field research conducted
in Kyrgyzstan in August 2023. As such, this report incorporates interviews with
Kyrgyz civil society organizations and other stakeholders working on issues
including, but not limited to, democratization, corruption, human rights, media, and
the rule of law. The report presents an in-depth analysis of the Russian influence with
regards to the Kyrgyz political system, civil society, and strategic relationship with
Moscow, underpinned by the historical context of Kyrgyz-Russian relations.

May 14, 2024

In 2025, the Kingdom of Denmark will take over from Norway as part of the rotating Arctic Council Chairship. Researcher Hannah Chenok argues that Greenland must have a greater say in the Chairship.

Aug 15, 2023

As a Predoctoral Research Fellow at the Belfer Center’s Environment and Natural Resources Program and Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program, Lydia Zemke has spent the last two years studying climate finance in developing countries. As she rounds out her time at the Belfer Center, Zemke she reflects on her research interests, her experience conducting fieldwork in Kenya and Costa Rica, and her advice for other early-career researchers. 

Apr 25, 2024

On April 23, the final session examined healthcare access policies and public health initiatives across Africa. In our discussions, we explored the politics of health and healthcare policy, particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. We identified political barriers to expanding healthcare coverage and access, and the dialogue centered on areas of progress in addressing infectious and chronic diseases. Beyond focusing on the challenges in implementing effective healthcare policies, in this session we invited participants to propose policy solutions as we look towards the future. The study group counted with the presence of external expert guest Dr. Salma Abdalla. Dr. Abdalla is a Sudanese medical doctor and Assistant Professor in Global Health and Epidemiology at Boston University School of Public Health. She was the Director of the Rockefeller-Boston University 3-D Commission on Determinants of health, Data science, and Decision making. She also served as a secretariat member for the WHO Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response during the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, Katie Chen, Master in Public Administration/ International Development Candidate at Harvard Kennedy School, delivered a memo briefing on how to boost childhood immunization rates in African countries, including through increased vaccine manufacturing, drone delivery., and behavioural interventions to combat vaccine hesitancy.

Jun 5, 2024

When asked whether the U.S. government works, most Americans say no. According to recent polling by Ipsos, more than two-thirds of adults in the United States think the country is going in the wrong direction. Gallup reports that only 26 percent have confidence in major U.S. institutions, such as the presidency, the Supreme Court, and Congress. Nearly half of Americans aged 18 to 25 say that they believe either that democracy or dictatorship “makes no difference” or that “dictatorship could be good in certain circumstances.” As a recent Economist cover story put it: “After victory in the Cold War, the American model seemed unassailable. A generation on, Americans themselves are losing confidence in it.”

Jun 28, 2024

Ensuring that space remains a domain for peaceful exploration and mutual benefit rather than a new frontier for conflict will significantly depend on the global community's ability to navigate the complex interplay of technological advancements, regulatory frameworks, economic opportunities, and geopolitical challenges. 

This paper was written for the final assignment of IGA-250, a Harvard Kennedy School course on emerging technology: security, strategy, and risk.

Jul 8, 2024

The July 2024 update to our database on the U.S. government investments in energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment (ERD3) through the U.S. Department of Energy.

Jul 13, 2024

Juliette Kayyem writes that politicians and security experts, especially those focused on the upcoming conventions in Milwaukee and Chicago and future political rallies, must now reckon with the evident mismatch between what we know about political violence—it is pervasive and indiscriminate, according to the FBI—and how we plan for it.

Jul 15, 2024

The agency had one job—to protect a major political figure from physical harm—and failed, writes Juliette Kayyem. Five questions must guide inquiries into the assassination attempt of former President Donald Trump.

Apr 16, 2024

The Arctic Initiative team helped kick off discussions for the International Conference on Arctic Research Planning Process 2022-2026 (ICARP IV) research priority teams at the Arctic Science Summit Week (ASSW) 2024 in Edinburgh, Scotland. 

May 1, 2024

Viktoria Waldenfels MPA 2025 reflects on promising ways forward for Arctic cooperation.

This study group, led by Arctic Initiative Senior Fellow Margaret Williams, is evaluating the costs and benefits of renewing cooperation with Russia on science and conservation issues.

May 30, 2024

The intersessional conference stands as one of the most important regular milestones in international climate negotiations, but its relatively unknown status compared to the COPs has made it difficult to understand its place in international climate policymaking.

Jun 5, 2024

Harvard Kennedy School hosted Leah Stokes, Anton Conk Associate Professor of Environmental Politics at UC Santa Barbara, to discuss how the historic Inflation Reduction Act succeeded where so many previous climate bills failed.

Jun 18, 2024

The rise of political populism and economic protectionism are serious barriers impeding efforts to combat global climate change. Robert Lawrence, the Albert Williams Professor of International Trade and Investment at Harvard Kennedy School, expressed those concerns in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.”

Jan 24, 2024

In this Q&A, Joseph S. Nye talks about his advice for the interim and future president of Harvard in the wake of Claudine Gay's resignation, which countries should be highest on our radar to prevent the threat of nuclear war, what role the U.S. should play in the Russia-Ukraine war, the significance of U.S. alliances in the Middle East, and more.

Mar 6, 2024

Iranian-backed militants in Yemen are clashing with the United States and British naval forces in the Red Sea over Israel’s operations in Gaza, all in a complex dance for geopolitical leverage in the Middle East. Yet, there is another region with a stake in the conflict brewing in the Bab al-Mandab strait, one seemingly beyond the world’s purview – the Horn of Africa.

Mar 28, 2024

We have heard much about the puzzle that US economic performance under President Joe Biden has been much stronger than voters perceive it to be.  But the current episode is just one instance of a bigger historical puzzle:  the US economy has since World War II consistently done better under Democratic presidents than under Republican presidents.  This fact is even less widely known, including among Democratic voters, than the truth about Biden’s term.  Indeed, some poll results suggest that more Americans believe the reverse, that Republican presidents are better stewards of the economy than Democrats.

Apr 18, 2024

The fourth session addressed the pressing issue of climate change and its political implications in Africa. This session highlighted the disproportionate impact of climate change effects on African nations and how governments are responding through policy measures. A significant focus of the discussion was placed on current climate financial models and the challenges to accessing funding for renewable energy and electrification projects in Africa. The study group counted with the presence of external expert speaker Ely Sandler, Fellow at the Belfer Center. Ely has worked as a senior consultant at the World Bank and previously at Morgan Stanley for nearly a decade. Policy proposals that Ely developed at Harvard were presented at COP27 and are now being adopted by the World Bank and UAE COP28 Presidency, with the hope of catalyzing trillions of dollars of green investment, in part through Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

Jun 26, 2024

Global demand for renewable energy is surging so why make solar panels, wind turbines and EVs dearer for western consumers?

Apr 15, 2024

Stephen Walt argues that the tragic irony is that the individuals and organizations in the United States that have been the most ardent in shielding Israel from criticism and pushing one administration after another to back Israel, no matter what it does, have in fact done enormous damage to the country that they were trying to help.

Apr 18, 2024

The human tragedy continuing to unfold in Gaza and Israel reminds us how important it is to get strategic forecasting right. While in no way excusing Hamas’ culpability for 7 October, we also cannot dismiss the fact that the failure to anticipate and prepare for such an attack has had grave consequences for communities on both sides of this conflict, undermined efforts to bring peace and prosperity to the region, and affected global interests through the expansion of the conflict to the Red Sea and potentially beyond. 

May 22, 2024

Joseph Nye posits that an open civil society that allows protest can be a soft power asset.

Jun 2, 2024

Ethnic cleansing is not only a modern phenomenon. The medieval Catholic Church saw non-Christians as a threat and facilitated the ethnoreligious cleansing of Muslim and Jewish communities across Western Europe. Three conditions made this possible: The rising power of the papacy as a supranational religious authority; its dehumanization of non-Christians; and competition among Catholic Western European monarchs that left them vulnerable to papal-clerical demands to eradicate non-Christians. These findings revise our understanding twentieth- and twenty-first-century ethnic cleansing in places like Cambodia, Iraq, Myanmar, the Soviet Union, and Syria.

Mar 15, 2024

On March 13, President Vladimir Putin granted an interview, in which he again delved into the conditions under which he says he would initiate the use of nuclear weapons. His remarks were so ambiguous that it caused mainstream Western media organizations—which tend to agree on what to emphasize in news out of the Kremlin—to put divergent headlines on the news stories that they ran about this particular interview. “Putin, in Pre-Election Messaging, Is Less Strident on Nuclear War. The Russian leader struck a softer tone about nuclear weapons in an interview with state television,” was the NYT’s headline. In contrast, the FT’s headline was “Russia ‘prepared’ for nuclear war, warns Vladimir Putin. President resumes bullish rhetoric over use of atomic arsenal if west threatens Moscow’s sovereignty,” while CBS News ran with “Putin again threatens to use nuclear weapons, claims Russia's arsenal ‘much more’ advanced than America's” and WSJ led with “Putin Rattles Nuclear Saber Ahead of Presidential Elections; Raising specter of nuclear confrontation.” So, which is it? Has Putin just struck a softer tone about nuclear weapons or has he rattled his nuclear saber yet again? The answer is both.

Apr 2, 2024

This week in Say More, Project Syndicate talks with Joseph S. Nye, Jr., an emeritus professor at Harvard Kennedy School, a former U.S. assistant secretary of defense, and the author, most recently, of A Life in the American Century.