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PROactive: A Sad Tale of Inappropriate Analysis and Unjustified Interpretation

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2006-04-01

Jay S. Skyler
Apr 1, 2006; 24:63-65
Commentary


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Persistence of Continuous Glucose Monitoring Use in a Community Setting 1 Year After Purchase

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2013-07-01

James Chamberlain
Jul 1, 2013; 31:106-109
Feature Articles


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Management of Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2005-01-01

Andrew J.M. Boulton
Jan 1, 2005; 23:9-15
Feature Articles


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Application of Adult-Learning Principles to Patient Instructions: A Usability Study for an Exenatide Once-Weekly Injection Device

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2010-09-01

Gayle Lorenzi
Sep 1, 2010; 28:157-162
Bridges to Excellence


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Hospital Management of Hyperglycemia

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2004-04-01

Kristen B. Campbell
Apr 1, 2004; 22:81-88
Practical Pointers


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Cardiac Manifestations of Congenital Generalized Lipodystrophy

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2016-10-01

Vani P. Sanon
Oct 1, 2016; 34:181-186
Feature Articles


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Standards of Medical Care in Diabetes--2019 Abridged for Primary Care Providers

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2019-01-01

American Diabetes Association
Jan 1, 2019; 37:11-34
Position Statements


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Perspectives in Gestational Diabetes Mellitus: A Review of Screening, Diagnosis, and Treatment

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2007-04-01

Jennifer M. Perkins
Apr 1, 2007; 25:57-62
Feature Articles


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The Disparate Impact of Diabetes on Racial/Ethnic Minority Populations

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2012-07-01

Edward A. Chow
Jul 1, 2012; 30:130-133
Diabetes Advocacy


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Standards of Medical Care in Diabetes--2016 Abridged for Primary Care Providers

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2016-01-01

American Diabetes Association
Jan 1, 2016; 34:3-21
Position Statements


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What's So Tough About Taking Insulin? Addressing the Problem of Psychological Insulin Resistance in Type 2 Diabetes

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2004-07-01

William H. Polonsky
Jul 1, 2004; 22:147-150
Practical Pointers


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Standards of Medical Care in Diabetes--2018 Abridged for Primary Care Providers

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2018-01-01

American Diabetes Association
Jan 1, 2018; 36:14-37
Position Statements


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Standards of Medical Care in Diabetes--2017 Abridged for Primary Care Providers

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2017-01-01

American Diabetes Association
Jan 1, 2017; 35:5-26
Position Statements


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Standards of Medical Care in Diabetes--2015 Abridged for Primary Care Providers

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2015-04-01

American Diabetes Association
Apr 1, 2015; 33:97-111
Position Statements


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Empowerment and Self-Management of Diabetes

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2004-07-01

Martha M. Funnell
Jul 1, 2004; 22:123-127
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Microvascular and Macrovascular Complications of Diabetes

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2008-04-01

Michael J. Fowler
Apr 1, 2008; 26:77-82
Diabetes Foundation


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10 Examples of Heroism Arising From the COVID-19 Pandemic

By blog.richmond.edu
Published On :: Sat, 04 Apr 2020 20:26:56 +0000

By Scott T. Allison In any tragedy or crisis, you will see many people standing out and stepping up to save lives and make the world a better place. These heroic individuals can range from leaders of nations to ordinary citizens who rise to the occasion to help others in need. During this COVID-19 pandemic, … Continue reading 10 Examples of Heroism Arising From the COVID-19 Pandemic →


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The Miniseries ‘Devs’ Delivers a Delicious Dose of Heroism and Villainy

By blog.richmond.edu
Published On :: Mon, 20 Apr 2020 13:06:15 +0000

By Scott T. Allison Devs is the ideal TV mini-series for people to sink their teeth into, for many reasons: (1) It’s both science and science-fiction; (2) it’s brilliant mix of psychology, philosophy, religion, and technology; (3) it tantalizes us with the mysteries of love, life, death, time, and space; and (4) it features a … Continue reading The Miniseries ‘Devs’ Delivers a Delicious Dose of Heroism and Villainy →


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Heroism Science: Call for Papers, Special Issue: The Heroism of Whistleblowers

By blog.richmond.edu
Published On :: Tue, 21 Apr 2020 17:11:14 +0000

Heroism Science: Call for Papers, Special Issue The Heroism of Whistleblowers Edited by Ari Kohen, Brian Riches, and Matt Langdon Whistleblowers speak up with “concerns or information about wrongdoing inside organizations and institutions.” As such, whistleblowing “can be one of the most important and difficult forms of heroism in modern society” (Brown, 2016 p. 1). … Continue reading Heroism Science: Call for Papers, Special Issue: The Heroism of Whistleblowers →


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The Pains of Progress

By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com
Published On :: Fri, 30 Sep 2011 07:04:00 +0000

To measure time by how little we change is to find how little we've lived, 
but to measure time by how much we've lost is to wish we hadn't changed at all. Andre Aciman

The last frontier is not the Antarctic, or the oceans, or outer space. The last frontier is The Unknown. We mentioned in an earlier essay that uncertainty - which makes baseball and life interesting - is inevitable in the human world. Life will continue to be interesting as long as the world is rich in unknowns, waiting to be discovered. Progress is possible if propitious discoveries can be made. Progress, however, comes with costs.

The emblem of my university entwines a billowing smokestack and a cogwheel in the first letter of the institution's name. When this emblem was adopted (probably in 1951) these were optimistic symbols of progress. Cogwheels are no longer 'hi-tech' (though we still need them), and smoke has been banished from polite company. But our emblem is characteristic of industrial society which has seared Progress on our hearts and minds.

Progress is accompanied by painful tensions. On the one hand, progress is nurtured by stability, cooperation, and leisure. On the other hand, progress grows out of change, conflict, and stress. A society's progressiveness reflects its balance of each of these three pairs of attributes. In the most general terms, progressiveness reflects social and individual attitudes to uncertainty.

Let's consider the three pairs of attributes one at a time.

Change and stability. Not all change is progress, but all progress is change. Change is necessary for progress, by definition, and progress can be very disruptive. The disruptiveness sometimes arises from unexpected consequences. J.B.S. Haldane wrote in 1923 that "the late war is only an example of the disruptive result that we may constantly expect from the progress of science." On the other hand, progressives employ and build on existing capabilities. The entrepreneur depends on stable property rights before risking venture capital. The existing legal system is used to remove social injustice. Watt's steam engine extended Newcomen's more primitive model. The new building going up on campus next to my office is very disruptive, but the construction project depends on the continuity of the university despite the drilling and dust. Even revolutionaries exploit and react against the status quo, which must exist for a revolutionary to be able to revolt. (One can't revolt if nothing is revolting.) Progress grows from a patch of opportunity in a broad bed of certainty, and spreads out in unanticipated directions.

Conflict and cooperation. Conflict between vested interests and innovators is common. Watt protected his inventions with extensive patents which may have actually retarded the further development and commercialization of steam power. Conflict is also a mechanism for selecting successful ideas. Darwinian evolution and its social analogies proceed by more successful adaptations replacing less successful ones. On the other hand, cooperation enables specialization and expertise which are needed for innovation. The tool-maker cooperates with the farmer so better tools can be made more quickly, enhancing the farmer's productivity and the artisan's welfare. Conflicts arise over what constitutes progress. Stem cell research, genetic engineering, nuclear power technology: progress or plague? Cooperative collective decision making enables the constructive resolution of these value-based conflicts.

Stress and leisure. Challenge, necessity and stress all motivate innovation. If you have no problems, you are unlikely to be looking for solutions. On the other hand, the leisure to think and tinker is a great source of innovation. Subsistence societies have no resources for invention. In assessing the implications of industrial efficiency, Bertrand Russell praised idleness in 1932, writing: "In a world where no one is compelled to work more than four hours a day, every person possessed of scientific curiosity will be able to indulge it, and every painter will be able to paint without starving ...." Stress is magnified by the unknown consequences of the stressor, while leisure is possible only in the absence of fear.

New replaces Old. Yin and yang are complementary opposites that dynamically interact. In Hegel's dialectic, tension between contradictions is resolved by synthesis. Human history is written by the victors, who sometimes hardly mention those swept into Trotsky's "dustbin of history". "In the evening resides weeping; in the morning: joy." (Psalm 30:6). Change and stability; conflict and cooperation; stress and leisure.

No progress without innovation; no innovation without discovery; no discovery without the unknown; no unknown without fear. There is no progress without pain.


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  • conflict and cooperation
  • costs of progress
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The End of Science?

By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com
Published On :: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 07:21:00 +0000


Science is the search for and study of patterns and laws in the natural and physical worlds. Could that search become exhausted, like an over-worked coal vein, leaving nothing more to be found? Could science end? After briefly touching on several fairly obvious possible end-games for science, we explore how the vast Unknown could undermine - rather than underlie - the scientific enterprize. The possibility that science could end is linked to the reason that science is possible at all. The path we must climb in this essay is steep, but the (in)sight is worth it.

Science is the process of discovering unknowns, one of which is the extent of Nature's secrets. It is possible that the inventory of Nature's unknowns is finite or conceivably even nearly empty. However, a look at open problems in science, from astronomy to zoology, suggests that Nature's storehouse of surprises is still chock full. So, from this perspective, the answer to the question 'Could science end?' is conceivably 'Yes', but most probably 'No'.

Another possible 'Yes' answer is that science will end by reaching the limit of human cognitive capability. Nature's storehouse of surprises may never empty out, but the rate of our discoveries may gradually fall, reaching zero when scientists have figured out everything that humans are able to understand. Possible, but judging from the last 400 years, it seems that we've only begun to tap our mind's expansive capability.

Or perhaps science - a product of human civilization - will end due to historical or social forces. The simplest such scenario is that we blow ourselves to smithereens. Smithereens can't do science. Another more complicated scenario is Oswald Spengler's theory of cyclical history, whereby an advanced society - such as Western civilization - decays and disappears, science disappearing with it. So again a tentative 'Yes'. But this might only be an interruption of science if later civilizations resume the search.

We now explore the main mechanism by which science could become impossible. This will lead to deeper understanding of the delicate relation between knowledge and the Unknown and to why science is possible at all.

One axiom of science is that there exist stable and discoverable laws of nature. As the philosopher A.N. Whitehead wrote in 1925: "Apart from recurrence, knowledge would be impossible; for nothing could be referred to our past experience. Also, apart from some regularity of recurrence, measurement would be impossible." (Science and the Modern World, p.36). The stability of phenomena is what allows a scientist to repeat, study and build upon the work of other scientists. Without regular recurrence there would be no such thing as a discoverable law of nature.

However, as David Hume explained long ago in An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, one can never empirically prove that regular recurrence will hold in the future. By the time one tests the regularity of the future, that future has become the past. The future can never be tested, just as one can never step on the rolled up part of an endless rug unfurling always in front of you.

Suppose the axiom of Natural Law turns out to be wrong, or suppose Nature comes unstuck and its laws start "sliding around", changing. Science would end. If regularity, patterns, and laws no longer exist, then scientific pursuit of them becomes fruitless.

Or maybe not. Couldn't scientists search for the laws by which Nature "slides around"? Quantum mechanics seems to do just that. For instance, when a polarized photon impinges on a polarizing crystal, the photon will either be entirely absorbed or entirely transmitted, as Dirac explained. The photon's fate is not determined by any law of Nature (if you believe quantum mechanics). Nature is indeterminate in this situation. Nonetheless, quantum theory very accurately predicts the probability that the photon will be transmitted, and the probability that it will be absorbed. In other words, quantum mechanics establishes a deterministic law describing Nature's indeterminism.

Suppose Nature's indeterminism itself becomes lawless. Is that conceivable? Could Nature become so disorderly, so confused and uncertain, so "out of joint: O, cursed spite", that no law can "set it right"? The answer is conceivably 'Yes', and if this happens then scientists are all out of a job. To understand how this is conceivable, one must appreciate the Unknown at its most rambunctious.

Let's take stock. We can identify attributes of Nature that are necessary for science to be possible. The axiom of Natural Law is one necessary attribute. The successful history of science suggests that the axiom of Natural Law has held firmly in the past. But that does not determine what Nature will be in the future.

In order to understand how Natural Law could come unstuck, we need to understand how Natural Law works (today). When a projectile, say a baseball, is thrown from here to there, its progress at each point along its trajectory is described, scientifically, in terms of its current position, direction of motion, and attributes such as its shape, mass and surrounding medium. The Laws of Nature enable the calculation of the ball's progress by solving a mathematical equation whose starting point is the current state of the ball.

We can roughly describe most Laws of Nature as formulations of problems - e.g. mathematical equations - whose input is the current and past states of the system in question, and whose solution predicts an outcome: the next state of the system. What is law-like about this is that these problems - whose solution describes a progression, like the flight of a baseball - are constant over time. The scientist calculates the baseball's trajectory by solving the same problem over and over again (or all at once with a differential equation). Sometimes the problem is hard to solve, so scientists are good mathematicians, or they have big computers, (or both). But solvable they are.

Let's remember that Nature is not a scientist, and Nature does not solve a problem when things happen (like baseballs speeding to home plate). Nature just does it. The scientist's Law is a description of Nature, not Nature itself.

There are other Laws of Nature for which we must modify the previous description. In these cases, the Law of Nature is, as before, the formulation of a problem. Now, however, the solution of the problem not only predicts the next state of the system, but it also re-formulates the problem that must be solved at the next step. There is sort of a feedback: the next state of the system alters the rule by which subsequent progress is made. For instance, when an object falls towards earth from outer space, the law of nature that determines the motion of the object depends on the gravitational attraction. The gravitational attraction, in turn, increases as the object gets closer. Thus the problem to be solved changes as the object moves. Problems like these tend to be more difficult to solve, but that's the scientist's problem (or pleasure).

Now we can appreciate how Nature might become lawlessly unstuck. Let's consider the second type of Natural Law, where the problem - the Law itself - gets modified by the evolving event. Let's furthermore suppose that the problem is not simply difficult to solve, but that no solution can be obtained in a finite amount of time (mathematicians have lots of examples of problems like this). As before, Nature itself does not solve a problem; Nature just does it. But the scientist is now in the position that no prediction can be made, no trajectory can be calculated, no model or description of the phenomenon can be obtained. No explicit problem statement embodying a Natural Law exists. This is because the problem to be solved evolves continuously from previous solutions, and none of the sequence of problems can be solved. The scientist's profession will become frustrating, futile and fruitless.

Nature becomes lawlessly unstuck, and science ends, if all Laws of Nature become of the modified second type. The world itself will continue because Nature solves no problems, it just does its thing. But the way it does this is now so raw and unruly that no study of nature can get to first base.

Sound like science fiction (or nightmare)? Maybe. But as far as we know, the only thing between us and this new state of affairs is the axiom of Natural Law. Scientists assume that Laws exist and are stable because past experience, together with our psychological makeup (which itself is evolutionary past experience), very strongly suggests that regular recurrence can be relied upon. But if you think that the scientists can empirically prove that the future will continue to be lawful, like the past, recall that all experience is past experience. Recall the unfurling-rug metaphor (by the time we test the future it becomes the past), and make an appointment to see Mr Hume.

Is science likely to become fruitless or boring? No. Science thrives on an Unknown that is full of surprises. Science - the search for Natural Laws - thrives even though the existence of Natural Law can never be proven. Science thrives precisely because we can never know for sure that science will not someday end. 


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The Language of Science and the Tower of Babel

By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com
Published On :: Mon, 31 Oct 2011 06:23:00 +0000


And God said: Behold one people with one language for them all ... and now nothing that they venture will be kept from them. ... [And] there God mixed up the language of all the land. (Genesis, 11:6-9)

"Philosophy is written in this grand book the universe, which stands continually open to our gaze. But the book cannot be understood unless one first learns to comprehend the language and to read the alphabet in which it is composed. It is written in the language of mathematics." Galileo Galilei

Language is power over the unknown. 

Mathematics is the language of science, and computation is the modern voice in which this language is spoken. Scientists and engineers explore the book of nature with computer simulations of swirling galaxies and colliding atoms, crashing cars and wind-swept buildings. The wonders of nature and the powers of technological innovation are displayed on computer screens, "continually open to our gaze." The language of science empowers us to dispel confusion and uncertainty, but only with great effort do we change the babble of sounds and symbols into useful, meaningful and reliable communication. How we do that depends on the type of uncertainty against which the language struggles.

Mathematical equations encode our understanding of nature, and Galileo exhorts us to learn this code. One challenge here is that a single equation represents an infinity of situations. For instance, the equation describing a flowing liquid captures water gushing from a pipe, blood coursing in our veins, and a droplet splashing from a puddle. Gazing at the equation is not at all like gazing at the droplet. Understanding grows by exposure to pictures and examples. Computations provide numerical examples of equations that can be realized as pictures. Computations can simulate nature, allowing us to explore at our leisure.

Two questions face the user of computations: Are we calculating the correct equations? Are we calculating the equations correctly? The first question expresses the scientist's ignorance - or at least uncertainty - about how the world works. The second question reflects the programmer's ignorance or uncertainty about the faithfulness of the computer program to the equations. Both questions deal with the fidelity between two entities. However, the entities involved are very different and the uncertainties are very different as well.

The scientist's uncertainty is reduced by the ingenuity of the experimenter. Equations make predictions that can be tested by experiment. For instance, Galileo predicted that small and large balls will fall at the same rate, as he is reported to have tested from the tower of Pisa. Equations are rejected or modified when their predictions don't match the experimenter's observation. The scientist's uncertainty and ignorance are whittled away by testing equations against observation of the real world. Experiments may be extraordinarily subtle or difficult or costly because nature's unknown is so endlessly rich in possibilities. Nonetheless, observation of nature remorselessly cuts false equations from the body of scientific doctrine. God speaks through nature, as it were, and "the Eternal of Israel does not deceive or console." (1 Samuel, 15:29). When this observational cutting and chopping is (temporarily) halted, the remaining equations are said to be "validated" (but they remain on the chopping block for further testing).

The programmer's life is, in one sense, more difficult than the experimenter's. Imagine a huge computer program containing millions of lines of code, the accumulated fruit of thousands of hours of effort by many people. How do we verify that this computation faithfully reflects the equations that have ostensibly been programmed? Of course they've been checked again and again for typos or logical faults or syntactic errors. Very clever methods are available for code verification. Nonetheless, programmers are only human, and some infidelity may slip through. What remorseless knife does the programmer have with which to verify that the equations are correctly calculated? Testing computation against observation does not allow us to distinguish between errors in the equations, errors in the program, and compensatory errors in both.

The experimenter compares an equation's prediction against an observation of nature. Like the experimenter, the programmer compares the computation against something. However, for the programmer, the sharp knife of nature is not available. In special cases the programmer can compare against a known answer. More frequently the programmer must compare against other computations which have already been verified (by some earlier comparison). The verification of a computation - as distinct from the validation of an equation - can only use other high-level human-made results. The programmer's comparisons can only be traced back to other comparisons. It is true that the experimenter's tests are intermediated by human artifacts like calipers or cyclotrons. Nonetheless, bedrock for the experimenter is the "reality out there". The experimenter's tests can be traced back to observations of elementary real events. The programmer does not have that recourse. One might say that God speaks to the experimenter through nature, but the programmer has no such Voice upon which to rely.

The tower built of old would have reached the heavens because of the power of language. That tower was never completed because God turned talk into babble and dispersed the people across the land. Scholars have argued whether the story prescribes a moral norm, or simply describes the way things are, but the power of language has never been disputed.

The tower was never completed, just as science, it seems, has a long way to go. Genius, said Edison, is 1 percent inspiration and 99 percent perspiration. A good part of the sweat comes from getting the language right, whether mathematical equations or computer programs.

Part of the challenge is finding order in nature's bubbling variety. Each equation captures a glimpse of that order, adding one block to the structure of science. Furthermore, equations must be validated, which is only a stop-gap. All blocks crumble eventually, and all equations are fallible and likely to be falsified.

Another challenge in science and engineering is grasping the myriad implications that are distilled into an equation. An equation compresses and summarizes, while computer simulations go the other way, restoring detail and specificity. The fidelity of a simulation to the equation is usually verified by comparing against other simulations. This is like the dictionary paradox: using words to define words.

It is by inventing and exploiting symbols that humans have constructed an orderly world out of the confusing tumult of experience. With symbols, like with blocks in the tower, the sky is the limit.


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Fog of War

By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com
Published On :: Tue, 29 Nov 2011 07:01:00 +0000


"War is the realm of uncertainty;
three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based 
are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty."
Carl von Clausewitz, On War

What makes a great general?

Hannibal changed Carthaginian strategy from naval to land warfare, and beat the Romans in nearly every encounter. Julius Caesar commanded the undying loyalty of his officers and soldiers. Napoleon Bonaparte invented the modern concept of total war with a citizen army. Was their genius in strategy, or tactics, or logistics, or charisma? Or was it crude luck? Or was it the exploitation of uncertainty?

War is profoundly influenced by technology, social organization, human psychology and political goals. Success in war requires understanding and control of these factors. War consumes vast human and material resources and demands "genius, improvisation, and energy of mind" as Winston Churchill said. And yet, Clausewitz writes: "No other human activity is so continuously or universally bound up with chance."

Why? What does this imply about the successful military commander? What does it mean for human endeavor and history in general?

Clausewitz uses the terms "chance" and "uncertainty", sometimes interchangeably, to refer to two different concepts. An event occurs by chance if it is unexpected, or its origin is unknown, or its impact is surprising. Adverse chance events provoke "uncertainty, the psychological state of discomfort from confusion or lack of information" (Katherine Herbig, reference below).

Chance and uncertainty are dangerous because they subvert plans and diminish capabilities. Soldiers have been aware of both the dangers and the advantages of surprise since they first battered each other with sticks. Conventional military theorists aimed to avoid or ameliorate chance events by careful planning, military intelligence, training and discipline, communication, command and control. Clausewitz also recognized that steadfast faithfulness to mission and determination against adversity are essential in overcoming chance events and the debilitating effect of uncertainty. But "Clausewitz dismisses as worse than useless efforts to systematize warfare with rules and formulas. Such systems are falsely comforting, he says, because they reduce the imponderables of war to a few meagre certainties about minor matters" (Herbig). Clausewitz' most original contribution was in building a systematic theory of war in which the unavoidability of chance, and its opportunities, are central.

Why is uncertainty (in the sense of lack of knowledge) unavoidable and fundamental in war? Clausewitz' answer is expressed in his metaphor of friction. As Herbig explains:

"Friction is the decremental loss of effort and intention caused by human fallibility, compounded by danger and exhaustion. Like the mechanical phenomenon of friction that reduces the efficiency of machinery with moving parts, Clausewitz' friction reduces the efficiency of the war machine. It sums up all the little things that always go wrong to keep things from being done as easily and quickly as intended. ...

"What makes friction more than a minor annoyance in war is its confounding with chance, which multiplies friction in random, unpredictable ways."

War, like history, runs on the cumulative effect of myriad micro-events. Small failures are compounded because war is a coordinated effort of countless local but inter-dependent occurrences. Generals, like symphony conductors, choose the score and set the pace, but the orchestra plays the notes. A mis-tuned violin, or a drummer who mis-counts his entry, can ruin the show. Moses led the children of Israel out of Egypt, but he'd have looked pretty funny if they had scattered to the four winds. Moses' genius as a leader wasn't plied against Pharaoh (Moses had help there), but rather against endless bickering and revolt once they reached the desert.

Uncertainty originates at the tactical rather than the strategic level. The general can't know countless local occurrences: a lost supply plane, failed equipment here, over-reaction there, or complacency someplace else. As an example, the New York Times reported on 27 November 2011:

"The NATO air attack that killed at least two dozen Pakistani soldiers over the weekend reflected a fundamental truth about American-Pakistani relations when it comes to securing the unruly border with Afghanistan: the tactics of war can easily undercut the broader strategy that leaders of both countries say they share.

"The murky details complicated matters even more, with Pakistani officials saying the attack on two Pakistani border posts was unprovoked and Afghan officials asserting that Afghan and American commandos called in airstrikes after coming under fire from Pakistani territory."

Central control is critical, but also profoundly limited by the micro-event texture of history.

Conversely, uncertainty can be exploited at the tactical level by flexible and creative response to random opportunities. The field commander has local knowledge that enables decisive initiative: the sleeping sentinel, the bridge not destroyed, the deserted town. The general's brilliance is in forging a war machine whose components both exploit uncertainty and are resilient to surprise.

Uncertainty is central in history at large, like in war, because they both emerge from the churning of individual events. In democratic societies, legislatures pass laws and executive branches formulate and implement policies. But only active participation of the citizenry brings life and reality to laws and policies. Conversely, citizen resistance or even apathy dooms the best policies to failure. This explains the failure of democratic institutions that are imported precipitously to countries with incompatible social and political traditions. Governments formulate policy, but implementation occurs in the context of social attitudes and historical memory. You can elect legislatures and presidents but you can't elect the public. Non-centralized beliefs and actions also dominate the behavior of industrial economies. The actions of countless households, firms and investors can vitiate the best laid plans of monetary and fiscal authorities. All this adds up to Clausewitz' concept of friction: global uncertainty accumulating from countless local deviations.

In peace, like in war, the successful response to uncertainty is to face it, grapple with it, exploit it, restrain it, but never hope to abolish it. Uncertainty is inevitable, and sometimes even propitious. The propensity for war is the ugliest attribute of our species. Nonetheless, what we learn about uncertainty from the study of war applies to all our endeavors: in business, in politics and beyond. Waging peace demands the same staunchness, determination and inventive flexibility in the face of the unknown, as the successful pursuit of war.

Main source:
Katherine L. Herbig, 1989, Chance and Uncertainty in On War, in Michael Handel, ed., Clausewitz and Modern Strategy, Frank Cass, London, pp.95-116.

See also:
Peter Paret, 1976, Clausewitz and the State: The Man, His Theories, and His Times, re-issued 2007, Princeton University Press. 


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Jabberwocky. Or: Grand Unified Theory of Uncertainty???

By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com
Published On :: Mon, 19 Dec 2011 07:30:00 +0000


Jabberwocky, Lewis Carroll's whimsical nonsense poem, uses made-up words to create an atmosphere and to tell a story. "Billig", "frumious", "vorpal" and "uffish" have no lexical meaning, but they could have. The poem demonstrates that the realm of imagination exceeds the bounds of reality just as the set of possible words and meanings exceeds its real lexical counterpart.

Uncertainty thrives in the realm of imagination, incongruity, and contradiction. Uncertainty falls in the realm of science fiction as much as in the realm of science. People have struggled with uncertainty for ages and many theories of uncertainty have appeared over time. How many uncertainty theories do we need? Lots, and forever. Would we say that of physics? No, at least not forever.

Can you think inconsistent, incoherent, or erroneous thoughts? I can. (I do it quite often, usually without noticing.) For those unaccustomed to thinking incongruous thoughts, and who need a bit of help to get started, I can recommend thinking of "two meanings packed into one word like a portmanteau," like 'fuming' and 'furious' to get 'frumious' or 'snake' and 'shark' to get 'snark'.

Portmanteau words are a start. Our task now is portmanteau thoughts. Take for instance the idea of a 'thingk':

When I think a thing I've thought,
I have often felt I ought
To call this thing I think a "Thingk",
Which ought to save a lot of ink.

The participle is written "thingking",
(Which is where we save on inking,)
Because "thingking" says in just one word:
"Thinking of a thought thing." Absurd!

All this shows high-power abstraction.
(That highly touted human contraption.)
Using symbols with subtle feint,
To stand for something which they ain't.

Now that wasn't difficult: two thoughts at once. Now let those thoughts be contradictory. To use a prosaic example: thinking the unthinkable, which I suppose is 'unthingkable'. There! You did it. You are on your way to a rich and full life of thinking incongruities, fallacies and contradictions. We can hold in our minds thoughts of 4-sided triangles, parallel lines that intersect, and endless other seeming impossibilities from super-girls like Pippi Longstockings to life on Mars (some of which may actually be true, or at least possible).

Scientists, logicians, and saints are in the business of dispelling all such incongruities, errors and contradictions. Banishing inconsistency is possible in science because (or if) there is only one coherent world. Belief in one coherent world and one grand unified theory is the modern secular version of the ancient monotheistic intuition of one universal God (in which saints tend to believe). Uncertainty thrives in the realm in which scientists and saints have not yet completed their tasks (perhaps because they are incompletable). For instance, we must entertain a wide range of conflicting conceptions when we do not yet know how (or whether) quantum mechanics can be reconciled with general relativity, or Pippi's strength reconciled with the limitations of physiology. As Henry Adams wrote:

"Images are not arguments, rarely even lead to proof, but the mind craves them, and, of late more than ever, the keenest experimenters find twenty images better than one, especially if contradictory; since the human mind has already learned to deal in contradictions."

The very idea of a rigorously logical theory of uncertainty is startling and implausible because the realm of the uncertain is inherently incoherent and contradictory. Indeed, the first uncertainty theory - probability - emerged many centuries after the invention of the axiomatic method in mathematics. Today we have many theories of uncertainty: probability, imprecise probability, information theory, generalized information theory, fuzzy logic, Dempster-Shafer theory, info-gap theory, and more (the list is a bit uncertain). Why such a long and diverse list? It seems that in constructing a logically consistent theory of the logically inconsistent domain of uncertainty, one cannot capture the whole beast all at once (though I'm uncertain about this).

A theory, in order to be scientific, must exclude something. A scientific theory makes statements such as "This happens; that doesn't happen." Karl Popper explained that a scientific theory must contain statements that are at risk of being wrong, statements that could be falsified. Deborah Mayo demonstrated how science grows by discovering and recovering from error.

The realm of uncertainty contains contradictions (ostensible or real) such as the pair of statements: "Nine year old girls can lift horses" and "Muscle fiber generates tension through the action of actin and myosin cross-bridge cycling". A logically consistent theory of uncertainty can handle improbabilities, as can scientific theories like quantum mechanics. But a logical theory cannot encompass outright contradictions. Science investigates a domain: the natural and physical worlds. Those worlds, by virtue of their existence, are perhaps coherent in a way that can be reflected in a unified logical theory. Theories of uncertainty are directed at a larger domain: the natural and physical worlds and all imaginable (and unimaginable) other worlds. That larger domain is definitely not coherent, and a unified logical theory would seem to be unattainable. Hence many theories of uncertainty are needed.

Scientific theories are good to have, and we do well to encourage the scientists. But it is a mistake to think that the scientific paradigm is suitable to all domains, in particular, to the study of uncertainty. Logic is a powerful tool and the axiomatic method assures the logical consistency of a theory. For instance, Leonard Savage argued that personal probability is a "code of consistency" for choosing one's behavior. Jim March compares the rigorous logic of mathematical theories of decision to strict religious morality. Consistency between values and actions is commendable says March, but he notes that one sometimes needs to deviate from perfect morality. While "[s]tandard notions of intelligent choice are theories of strict morality ... saints are a luxury to be encouraged only in small numbers." Logical consistency is a merit of any single theory, including a theory of uncertainty. However, insisting that the same logical consistency apply over the entire domain of uncertainty is like asking reality and saintliness to make peace.


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The Age of Imagination

By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com
Published On :: Mon, 09 Jan 2012 09:35:00 +0000


This is not only the Age of Information, this is also the Age of Imagination. Information, at any point in time, is bounded, while imagination is always unbounded. We are overwhelmed more by the potential for new ideas than by the admittedly vast existing knowledge. We are drunk with the excitement of the unknown. Drunks are sometimes not a pretty sight; Isaiah (28:8) is very graphic.

It is true that topical specialization occurs, in part, due to what we proudly call the explosion of knowledge. There is so much to know that one must ignore huge tracts of knowledge. But that is only half the story. The other half is that we have begun to discover the unknown, and its lure is irresistible. Like the scientific and global explorers of the early modern period - The Discoverers as Boorstin calls them - we are intoxicated by the potential "out there", beyond the horizon, beyond the known. That intoxication can distort our vision and judgment.

Consider Reuven's comment, from long experience, that "Engineers use formulas and various equations without being aware of the theories behind them." A pithier version was said to me by an acquisitions editor at Oxford University Press: "Engineers don't read books." She should know.

Engineers are imaginative and curious. They are seekers, and they find wonderful things. But they are too engrossed in inventing and building The New, to be much engaged with The Old. "Scholarship", wrote Thorstein Veblen is "an intimate and systematic familiarity with past cultural achievements." Engineers - even research engineers and professors of engineering - spend very little time with past masters. How many computer scientists scour the works of Charles Babbage? How often do thermal engineers study the writings of Lord Kelvin? A distinguished professor of engineering, himself a member of the US National Academy of Engineering, once told me that there is little use for journal articles more than a few years old.

Fragmentation of knowledge results from the endless potential for new knowledge. Seekers - engineers and the scientists of nature, society and humanity - move inexorably apart from one another. But nonetheless it's all connected; consilient. Technology alters how we live. Science alters what we think. How can we keep track of it all? How can we have some at least vague and preliminary sense of where we are heading and whether we value the prospect?

The first prescription is to be aware of the problem, and I greatly fear that many movers and shakers of the modern age are unaware. The second prescription is to identify who should take the lead in nurturing this awareness. That's easy: teachers, scholars, novelists, intellectuals of all sorts.

Isaiah struggled with this long ago. "Priest and prophet erred with liquor, were swallowed by wine."(Isaiah, 28:7) We are drunk with the excitement of the unknown. Who can show the way?


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We're Just Getting Started: A Glimpse at the History of Uncertainty

By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com
Published On :: Thu, 22 Mar 2012 19:12:00 +0000


We've had our cerebral cortex for several tens of thousands of years. We've lived in more or less sedentary settlements and produced excess food for 7 or 8 thousand years. We've written down our thoughts for roughly 5 thousand years. And Science? The ancient Greeks had some, but science and its systematic application are overwhelmingly a European invention of the past 500 years. We can be proud of our accomplishments (quantum theory, polio vaccine, powered machines), and we should worry about our destructive capabilities (atomic, biological and chemical weapons). But it is quite plausible, as Koestler suggests, that we've only just begun to discover our cerebral capabilities. It is more than just plausible that the mysteries of the universe are still largely hidden from us. As evidence, consider the fact that the main theories of physics - general relativity, quantum mechanics, statistical mechanics, thermodynamics - are still not unified. And it goes without say that the consilient unity of science is still far from us.

What holds for science in general, holds also for the study of uncertainty. The ancient Greeks invented the axiomatic method and used it in the study of mathematics. Some medieval thinkers explored the mathematics of uncertainty, but it wasn't until around 1600 that serious thought was directed to the systematic study of uncertainty, and statistics as a separate and mature discipline emerged only in the 19th century. The 20th century saw a florescence of uncertainty models. Lukaczewicz discovered 3-valued logic in 1917, and in 1965 Zadeh introduced his work on fuzzy logic. In between, Wald formulated a modern version of min-max in 1945. A plethora of other theories, including P-boxes, lower previsions, Dempster-Shafer theory, generalized information theory and info-gap theory all suggest that the study of uncertainty will continue to grow and diversify.

In short, we have learned many facts and begun to understand our world and its uncertainties, but the disputes and open questions are still rampant and the yet-unformulated questions are endless. This means that innovations, discoveries, inventions, surprises, errors, and misunderstandings are to be expected in the study or management of uncertainty. We are just getting started. 


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New History of Psychiatry: Melancholy, Madness, Chinese Psychiatry, Psychedelic Therapy, and More

By ahp.apps01.yorku.ca
Published On :: Tue, 21 Apr 2020 12:59:00 +0000

The June 2020 issue of History of Psychiatry is now online. Full details follow below: “Wild melancholy. On the historical plausibility of a black bile theory of blood madness, or hæmatomania,” Jan Verplaetse. Abstract: Nineteenth-century art historian John Addington Symonds coined the term hæmatomania (blood madness) for the extremely bloodthirsty behaviour of a number of … Continue reading New History of Psychiatry: Melancholy, Madness, Chinese Psychiatry, Psychedelic Therapy, and More →


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History of Spanish Psychology, 1800–2000

By ahp.apps01.yorku.ca
Published On :: Thu, 30 Apr 2020 14:11:00 +0000

AHP readers may be interested in a recent piece on “History of Spanish Psychology, 1800–2000” in the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Psychology. Full details below. “History of Spanish Psychology, 1800–2000,” by Javier Bandrés. Abstract: In the history of Spanish psychology in the 19th century, three stages can be distinguished. An eclectic first stage was defined … Continue reading History of Spanish Psychology, 1800–2000 →


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CfP: Shaping the ‘Socialist Self’? The Role of Psy-Sciences in Communist States of the Eastern Bloc (1948–1989)

By ahp.apps01.yorku.ca
Published On :: Wed, 06 May 2020 01:10:00 +0000

CALL FOR PAPERSINTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP Shaping the ‘Socialist Self’? The Role of Psy-Sciences in Communist States of the Eastern Bloc (1948–1989) Date: 6 November 2020 Venue: Prague, Czech Republic Deadline for applications: 30 June 2020 Organizing institutions: CEFRES (French Research Center in Humanities and Social Sciences in Prague) Institute of Contemporary History of the Czech Academy of Sciences Collegium Carolinum … Continue reading CfP: Shaping the ‘Socialist Self’? The Role of Psy-Sciences in Communist States of the Eastern Bloc (1948–1989) →


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Six Simple Signs Of A Narcissist (M)

By www.spring.org.uk
Published On :: Tue, 05 May 2020 15:30:33 +0000

One of the most commonly believed signs of a narcissist is a myth.

→ Support PsyBlog for just $5 per month. Enables access to articles marked (M) and removes ads.

→ Explore PsyBlog's ebooks, all written by Dr Jeremy Dean:


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Examining the Pros and Cons of Phone Therapy

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Mon, 27 Apr 2020 20:59:38 +0000

Telephone therapy has taken on greater significance in the mental health industry in wake of the covid-19 pandemic. While some individuals may have avoided telephone therapy in the past, the temporary closure of mental health offices and the necessity of social distancing have resulted in an increasing number of people asking for more information on […]


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Where is behavioral economics headed in the world of marketing?

By nudges.org
Published On :: Mon, 10 Oct 2011 01:22:04 +0000

The Nudge blog sat down (electronically) with John Kenny, Senior Vice President of Strategic Planning in Draftfcb’s Chicago office, to explore whether behavioral economics is just a fad in marketing or a legitimate tool to help the industry perform better. Starting with the Institute of Decision Making, Draftfcb has been one of the leaders in [...]


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The Paradox of Online Dating: Too Many Options Makes It Harder to Invest in a Relationship

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Fri, 27 Mar 2020 14:00:00 +0000

In any relationship, you’re bound to discover that your partner has one or two (or maybe ten or twenty) quirks that eventually come to annoy you. In these situations, it's tempting to think that you might be happier with someone else—someone who doesn’t have the same set of peccadillos. However, according to behavioral economist Dr. Dan Ariely, this kind of thinking can set you up for a lifetime of disappointment.


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The History of the Clitoris (Video)

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Wed, 01 Apr 2020 14:00:00 +0000

The clitoris is an organ that has been wildly misunderstood and mischaracterized for most of human history. The last three decades have dramatically changed the way that scientists think and talk about the clitoris; however, many myths and misconceptions remain.


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Why The Pandemic is Making Some People Horny--But Turning Others Off

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Fri, 03 Apr 2020 14:00:00 +0000

There are a lot of conflicting media reports out right now about how the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic is affecting people’s sex drives. Some are saying that all of the stress and anxiety is putting a damper on desire, while others are saying that everyone is super horny. So which is it? Truth be told, it’s probably a bit of both.


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Sex and Psychology Podcast: SexTech, Sexting, and Dick Pics in the Time of COVID-19

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Mon, 20 Apr 2020 15:00:00 +0000

Lockdowns and “social distancing” guidelines are changing our intimate lives in major ways. For example, think about people living alone in heavily restricted areas right now. What we’re seeing in our research is that many of these folks are turning to sextech to fill the void in their sexual lives, such as by increasing their participation in activities like sexting and cybersex—and many are trying these things for the very first time. In order to explore the various ways that people are leveraging sextech right now, I spoke to two sextech experts: Dr. Erin Watson and Tasha Falconer.


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The State of Sex Research Today, According to 4 Sex Scientists

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Wed, 22 Apr 2020 14:00:00 +0000

What’s going on in the world of sex research today? What are some of the biggest controversies and challenges? I recently sat down with a few of my colleagues to discuss these and other interesting questions. In the video below, I chat with Drs. Zhana Vrangalova (New York University), Diana Fleischman (University of Portsmouth), and Geoffrey Miller (University of New Mexico).


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Podcasts on the Science of Sex to Get You Through the Lockdown

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Wed, 29 Apr 2020 14:00:00 +0000

During this time of lockdowns and quarantines, I know that many of you are looking for ways to pass the time, so allow me to suggest some entertaining and educational podcasts on the science of sex to help!


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  • Sex and Relationships in the Media
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Fact Check: Does Pubic Hair Grooming Increase the Risk of Getting an STI?

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Fri, 01 May 2020 14:00:00 +0000

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are on the rise, and many people are curious about the reasons why. While the cause is obviously multifactorial, some have suggested that at least part of the rise in STIs may be due to increasing rates of pubic hair grooming in men and women alike. Given that it’s not uncommon for people to experience cuts and skin irritation from genital grooming practices, it at least sounds plausible in theory that pubic hair shaving could potentially increase infection risk. But what does the research actually say?


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Rates of Consensual and Nonconsensual Nonmonogamy Among Heterosexual, Gay, and Bisexual Adults

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Mon, 04 May 2020 14:00:00 +0000

I was recently invited to write a book chapter on nonmonogamy in LGBTQ+ relationships, and one of the things I wanted to do in it was compare the prevalence of both consensual nonmonogamy (polyamory, open relationships, swinging) and nonconsensual nonmonogamy (cheating/infidelity). Further, I wanted to look at whether rates of these practices were similar or different for LGBTQ+ persons compared to heterosexual persons. However, I found it surprisingly difficult to locate reliable data points. The problem I kept running into is that study after study conflated consensual nonmonogamy with nonconsensual nonmonogamy. In other words, researchers were putting all of these folks into the same category without attempting to distinguish whether they were permitted under the rules of the relationship or not.


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The gender-fluid history of the Philippines | France Villarta

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Mon, 09 Mar 2020 15:01:16 +0000

In much of the world, gender is viewed as binary: man or woman, each assigned characteristics and traits designated by biological sex. But that's not the case everywhere, says France Villarta. In a talk that's part cultural love letter, part history lesson, he details the legacy of gender fluidity and inclusivity in his native Philippines -- and emphasizes the universal beauty of all people, regardless of society's labels.


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The dangers of a noisy ocean -- and how we can quiet it down | Nicola Jones

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Wed, 11 Mar 2020 15:03:00 +0000

The ocean is a naturally noisy place full of singing whales, grunting fish, snapping shrimp, cracking ice, wind and rain. But human-made sounds -- from ship engines to oil drilling -- have become an acute threat to marine life, says science journalist Nicola Jones. Watch (and listen) as she discusses the strange things that happen to underwater creatures in the face of ocean noise pollution -- and shares straightforward ways we can dial down the sound to see almost immediate impacts.


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The beautiful, mysterious science of how you hear | Jim Hudspeth

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Published On :: Fri, 13 Mar 2020 14:57:05 +0000

Have you ever wondered how your ears work? In this delightful and fascinating talk, biophysicist Jim Hudspeth demonstrates the wonderfully simple yet astonishingly powerful mechanics of hair cells, the microscopic powerhouses that make hearing possible -- and explains how, when it's really quiet, your ears will begin to beam out a spectrum of sounds unique to you.


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A fascinating time capsule of human feelings toward AI | Lucy Farey-Jones

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Tue, 17 Mar 2020 14:59:28 +0000

How comfortable are you with robots taking over your life? Covering a wide range of potential applications -- from the mundane (robot house cleaner) to the mischievous (robot sex partner) to the downright macabre (uploading your brain to live on after death) -- technology strategist Lucy Farey-Jones shares data-backed evidence of how our willingness to accept AI may be radically changing.


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The weird history of the "sex chromosomes" | Molly Webster

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Mon, 23 Mar 2020 14:48:37 +0000

The common thinking on biological sex goes like this: females have two X chromosomes in their cells, while males have one X and one Y. In this myth-busting talk, science writer and podcaster Molly Webster shows why the so-called "sex chromosomes" are more complicated than this simple definition -- and reveals why we should think about them differently.


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How to be your best self in times of crisis | Susan David

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Published On :: Wed, 25 Mar 2020 03:46:48 +0000

"Life's beauty is inseparable from its fragility," says psychologist Susan David. In a special virtual conversation, she shares wisdom on how to build resilience, courage and joy in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. Responding to listeners' questions from across the globe, she offers ways to talk to your children about their emotions, keep focus during the crisis and help those working on the front lines. (This virtual conversation is part of the TED Connects series, hosted by head of TED Chris Anderson and current affairs curator Whitney Pennington Rodgers. Recorded March 23, 2020)


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The intangible effects of walls | Alexandra Auer

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Published On :: Fri, 03 Apr 2020 20:18:10 +0000

More barriers exist now than at the end of World War II, says designer Alexandra Auer. And when you erect one wall, you unwittingly create a second -- an "us" versus "them" partition in the mind that compromises our collective safety. With intriguing results from her social design project focused on two elementary schools separated by a fence, Auer encourages us to dismantle our biases and regain perspective on all the things we have in common.


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