We propose a novel measure of bond market liquidity that does not depend on transaction data: the strength of the cross-sectional relationship between mutual fund cash holdings and fund flow volatility. Our measure captures how liquid funds perceive their portfolio holdings to be at a given point in time. The perceived liquidity of speculative grade and Rule 144A bonds is significantly lower than investment grade bonds in the cross section and deteriorated significantly following the 2008-9 financial crisis. Our measure can be applied in settings where either transaction data are not available or transactions are rare, including the markets for asset-backed securities, syndicated loans, and municipal bonds.

We develop a model of financial crises with both a financial amplification mechanism, via frictional intermediation, and a role for sentiment, via time-varying beliefs about an illiquidity state. We confront the model with data on credit spreads, equity prices, credit, and output across the financial crisis cycle. In particular, we ask the model to match data on the frothy pre-crisis behavior of asset markets and credit, the sharp transition to a crisis where asset values fall, disintermediation occurs and output falls, and the post-crisis period characterized by a slow recovery in output. We find that a pure amplification mechanism quantitatively matches the crisis and aftermath period but fails to match the pre-crisis evidence. Mixing sentiment and amplification allows the model to additionally match the pre-crisis evidence. We consider two versions of sentiment, a Bayesian belief updating process and one that overweighs recent observations. We find that both models match the crisis patterns qualitatively, generating froth pre-crisis, non-linear behavior in the crisis, and slow recovery. The non-Bayesian model improves quantitatively on the Bayesian model in matching the extent of the pre-crisis froth.

A suspect accused in the shooting of Ahmaud Arbery, an unarmed black jogger killed in a Georgia suburrb more than two months ago, was involved in a previous prosecution of the 26-year-old runner back when he worked for the local district attorney’s office.

Shelter in place orders (SIPOs) require residents to remain home for all but essential activities such as purchasing food or medicine, caring for others, exercise, or traveling for employment deemed essential. Between March 19 and April 20, 2020, 40 states and the District of Columbia adopted SIPOs. This study explores the impact of SIPOs on health, with particular attention to heterogeneity in their impacts. First, using daily state-level social distancing data from SafeGraph and a difference-in-differences approach, we document that adoption of a SIPO was associated with a 5 to 10 percent increase in the rate at which state residents remained in their homes full-time. Then, using daily state-level coronavirus case data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we find that approximately three weeks following the adoption of a SIPO, cumulative COVID-19 cases fell by 44 percent. Event-study analyses confirm common COVID-19 case trends in the week prior to SIPO adoption and show that SIPO-induced case reductions grew larger over time. However, this average effect masks important heterogeneity across states — early adopters and high population density states appear to reap larger benefits from their SIPOs. Finally, we find that statewide SIPOs were associated with a reduction in coronavirus-related deaths, but estimated mortality effects were imprecisely estimated.

As devastating as the NYC numbers are, they represent a steady decrease from early April, when there were 533 new confirmed deaths on April 7 and 6,155 new cases on April 6.

The move marks a stunning renunciation of one of the most high-profile convictions secured as part of the federal investigation into President Trump’s ties to Russia.

Elizabeth Warren touted her own “universal workers’ bill of rights" and said of New Yorkers, "I’m glad to see people who are picking up this idea at the state level."

Tara Reade made the remarkable demand during an appearance on ex-Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly’s show, her first on-camera interview about the alleged assault.

Gov. Cuomo is down with Robert De Niro portraying him in a movie about the coronavirus pandemic, should there be one, and he also took a moment to play the role of the Manhattan-born actor.

NY Gov. Cuomo extended a “lookback window” created as part of the Child Victims Act last year that allows child sex abuse survivors of all ages to file civil suits beyond the normal statute of limitations.

“They’re still proceeding with primaries for other offices, for other races," Yang told the Daily News.

Dominican Yankees and Mets stars are working with Pedro Martinez to respond to the coronavirus pandemic in their homeland.

Not long after William the Conqueror named Remigius de Fécamp bishop of what was then the largest diocese in the country, he decided to move the seat of the diocese to a more central location. For the next 20 years, Remigius oversaw construction of a magnificent new cathedral in Lincoln, only to die days before its consecration. Today, its architecture is considered to be priceless. When Queen Eleanor died nearby in 1290, which parts of her body were buried at the cathedral? Discuss

Leinster back Fergus McFadden has today confirmed his intention to retire from professional rugby at the end of the season.

The six candidates to fill the second row positions in Ulster's greatest side of the professional era come to mind fairly readily

Rugby authorities in New Zealand and Australia are hopeful of a return to domestic action shortly as their respective governments ease restrictions put in place to stem the coronavirus pandemic.

In the late 1970s, a harbor seal named Hoover began catcalling passersby at the New England Aquarium in a thick Maine accent. A new study confirms seals’ uncanny ability to copy human speech.

Two research teams went into the weeds to quantify the magic behind the flight of the dandelion seed.

A study finds that close to a trillion trees could potentially be planted on Earth—enough to sequester more than 200 billion tons of carbon. But environmental change on this scale is no easy task.

Good news for bugs that weigh less than a sesame seed.

Neutron star innards are not your mom’s lasagna.

The new material could have applications in robotics and medicine.

A new analysis pinpoints some of the most ancient stars in our galaxy—and tells the story of the Milky Way’s ravenous past.

Combining two insect-control techniques, researchers largely prevented reproduction in a mosquito species known to carry Zika, dengue, and yellow fever.

Researchers have built a prosthesis that enabled a man who lost his hand to text, pluck grapes from their stems, and stuff a pillow into its case.

The border collie achieved international fame for her remarkable grasp on vocabulary and sentence structure.

This crustacean-like critter stalked the seas half a billion years ago.

These two genes are all it takes to determine the sex of a kiwifruit.

A computer simulation suggests that a massive collision may have caused Jupiter’s core to shatter into a gassy, borderless cloud.

The threat of mercury in seafood was curbed with regulations, but climate change could drive levels back up.

The virus simmered quietly in Cuba for about a year before infecting thousands.

But it’s not clear whether elevated cholesterol is bad for birds.

Scientists injected CRISPR gene-editing machinery into unfertilized eggs still developing in female lizards’ ovaries.

The feces contain the oldest example of parasite DNA ever recorded.

These nosy rodents may not speak bird-ese, per se, but they can still use avian chatter as a safety cue.

The breakthrough could mean that fewer organs go to waste before they make it into a transplant recipient.

That earns this fish, Electrophorus voltai, the title of the strongest known living source of electricity.

In the largest Arctic expedition yet, researchers will gather as much data as they can on the fading ice—and climate change.

American pikas’ responses to climate are driven by location, location, location.

A new analysis predicts that 3,196 animals will join the 5,579 already snared in the global wildlife market.

Light from nearby galaxies illuminated the web’s ‘threads,’ making them directly visible to telescopes on Earth.

Astronomers discovered 20 new moons around Saturn, bringing its total to 82.

The comet, 2I/Borisov, comes from another planetary system, but bears a remarkable resemblance to local space rocks.

Mathematical modeling and AI can pick out patterns preceding epidemics that human brains can’t readily discern.

Nearly half a billion years ago, marine arthropods called trilobites lined up single-file before meeting a tragic end.

Researchers have uncovered a new category of giant storm on Saturn’s surface.

The algorithm was based on the faulty assumption that health care spending is a good proxy for wellbeing. But there seems to be a quick fix.

Researchers used artificial intelligence to reevaluate elevations vulnerable to rising sea levels.

New research quantifies the fire risks of eight species of invasive grass.

Leonardo da Vinci dissected some 30 cadavers in his lifetime, leaving behind a trove of beautiful—and accurate—anatomical drawings.