de

Is the Treasury understating pension liabilities?

Belatedly, I've got round to looking at the Treasury's recent decision to change how it calculates the necessary contributions that have to be made to cover the future costs of unfunded public service pensions.

My interest was sparked by a letter sent to the chancellor by 23 pension experts, organised by the consultant John Ralfe. They argue that the Treasury has made a mistake in its choice of a new so-called discount rate.

If you think this is tedious abstruse stuff that has no relevance to you, think again. The aggregate public-sector net liability for pensions is so huge - perhaps £1 trillion - that it matters to all of us as taxpayers, especially those likely to be paying tax in 10 and 20 years time, that the government has a reliable and accurate valuation of pension promises.

Pensions represent, to coin the phrase, a massive off-balance-sheet debt. And as we've all learned to our cost from the financial crisis of 2007-8, it is a bad idea to carry on blithely pretending off-balance-sheet liabilities don't exist.

So what is this blessed discount rate? Well in the private sector it can be seen as the number used to translate into today's money a commitment to pay £650 a week pension (for example) for 30 years or so to a retired employee (till he or she dies), so that we can see whether there's enough money in the pension fund to pay that employee (and all the other employees) during his or her long retirement.

The point of the discount rate is to assess whether there's enough money in the pension fund - or whether it needs to be topped up.

Which is all very well, except that for most of the public sector, there are no funds or pots of money to pay for future pensions. Most of the pension promises are unfunded, payable out of employees' current contributions and out of general taxation.

That said, since public sector workers are increasingly expected to make a contribution to the costs of their own pensions, it would presumably be sensible for that contribution to be set at a level that is rationally related to the value of promised pensions.

So what is the best way of measuring the cost today of new pension promises?

Well the government has decided to "discount" those promises by the rate at which the economy is expected to grow.

Now there is some logic to that: the growth rate of the economy should determine the growth rate of tax revenues; and the growth rate of tax revenues will have a direct bearing on whether future pension promises will bankrupt us all or not.

But here's the thing. Any private sector chief executive might well be sent to prison if he or she decided to use the equivalent discount rate for a company, which would be the expected growth rate of that company's revenues or profits.

The reason is that although it might be possible to remove subjectivity (or in a worst case, manipulation) from any long-term forecast of the growth of GDP or of a company's turnover, it is not possible to remove considerable uncertainty.

To illustrate, the Treasury has chosen a GDP growth rate of 3% per annum as the discount rate for public sector pensions, which is considerably above the rate at which the UK economy has grown for years or indeed may grow for many years.

If we were growing at 3%, we would in practice be less worried about the off-balance-sheet liabilities of public-sector pensions, because the on-balance-sheet debt of the government would not be growing at an unsustainably fast rate.

To put it another way, in choosing its view of the long term growth rate of GDP as the discount rate, the Treasury is arguably understating the burden of future pensions to a considerable extent.

So what discount rate do companies use?

Well they are obliged to discount the liabilities at the yield or interest rate on AA rated corporate bonds.

Which may not be ideal, but has some advantages: there is a market price for AA corporate bonds, so the yield or discount rate is difficult to manipulate by unscrupulous employers; and it tells the company how much money would need to be in the pension pot, on the basis that all the money were invested in relatively safe investments (AA corporate bonds).

Now Ralfe and his chums believe that the discount rate for public sector promises should be the yield on long-term index linked gilts (gilts are bonds or debts of the British government) - partly because this too has a difficult-to-manipulate market price and because an index-linked government bond is a very similar liability to a public sector pension promise (both are protected against inflation, both are in effect debts of the government).

They point out that gilt interest and principal payments are paid out of future tax revenues, just as future pensions are. So if the value today of future pensions should be discounted at the GDP rate, that's how index linked gilts should be value on the government's balance sheet - which would be bonkers.

Anyway, if you've read this far (and many congratulations to you if you have), you may take the view that it would not be rational to impose a tougher discount rate on the government than on private-sector companies - which is what Ralfe et al seem to want, in that the yield on index linked gilts will always be lower than the yield on AA corporate bonds (because HMG, even with all its debts, is deemed to be more creditworthy than any British business).

But for a government and for a chancellor who have made it a badge of honour to bring transparency and prudence to public-sector finances, prospective GDP growth does look a slightly rum discount rate for valuing those enormous pension liabilities.




de

Cavin: Word of Bourdais deal spurs silly season talk

Frenchman reportedly leaving KVSH, kicking off IndyCar's driver movement for 2017

      




de

Insider: Helio Castroneves is this era's bridesmaid

In IndyCar Series history, driver Helio Castroneves ranks second in second-place race finishes. His legacy, beyond being a three-time Indianapolis 500 winner, might be that of being this era's bridesmaid.

       




de

IndyCar debate: Will Pagenaud or Power win series title?

SONOMA, Calif. — Simon Pagenaud's excellence this Verizon IndyCar Series season can be summed with two words: One mistake.

       




de

Cavin: Josef Newgarden to Penske the right move

Don't blame Josef Newgarden for leaving Ed Carpenter's popular IndyCar Series team, and don't blame powerful Team Penske for signing Newgarden. It's the right thing to do for the employee and his new employer.

       




de

Avon Schools close through March 20 after second student shows symptoms of the coronavirus

All Avon schools will close through March 20 as one student has tested positive and a second student is showing symptoms of the novel coronavirus.

      




de

As one Indiana school district closes amid COVID-19 concerns, others consider eLearning

As districts prepare for the possibility of an outbreak of the novel coronavirus in their schools, most consider a move to online learning.

      




de

MSD Lawrence Township is providing 5 days of breakfasts and lunches for students

The school district provided free grab-and-go breakfasts and lunches for students Monday. It will do it again next Monday (March 23).

      




de

Noblesville teachers parade through students' neighborhoods: 'We've missed them terribly'

Teachers from North Elementary School in Noblesville decorated their cars and paraded through neighborhoods, waving and honking at students from afar during the closure of schools because of the coronavirus outbreak.

      




de

Waving and honking hello: Noblesville teachers have car parade to see students

In less than 24 hours, teachers organized a parade of nearly 40 cars to say hello to students from afar.

      




de

How Indianapolis helps first responders get child care

The city of Indianapolis is offering discounted child care services to families of first responders. Here's why healthy practices are so important to combat the coronavirus.

      




de

Indianapolis police investigating homicide on city's northwest side

Indianapolis Metropolitan police are investigating after a man was found shot on the city's northwest side Thursday night.

      




de

An untrue April Fools' Day prank scared students and angered officials

The April Fools' prank is being shared in Indiana and other states across the nation.

      




de

Indiana schools closed through the end of the academic year

Indiana's K-12 schools will stayed closed through the end of the academic year as the state continues to fight the spread of the coronavirus.

      




de

Schools, donors rush to fill 'digital divide' and keep students learning during closures

During coronavirus, Indiana schools turn to donors to fill gaps in access to devices and home internet as state and federal resources lag behind.

       




de

Some families, students blocked from 'free internet' offers because of old debt

Some families have said that they were denied free internet access, offered in response to the coronavirus, because of old debts.

       




de

How fifth, eighth graders are preparing to leave elementary, middle school away from peers

With schools closed, fifth and eighth grade students navigate the transition from elementary to middle school or middle to high school on their own.

       




de

Colleges are getting millions to help students in need, but don't know how to spend it.

Indiana colleges and universities are getting millions in federal CARES Act dollars but say they need more guidance on how to spend it.

       




de

IU President McRobbie gives 5 scenarios for fall 2020 semester

While a return to full, in-person classes is unlikely, IU President Michael McRobbie outlined five possibilities for the fall semester.

       




de

As Indiana reopens, parents returning to work need to make decisions about child care

As Indiana prepares to reopen its economy during coronavirus, parents who are returning to work are facing a new challenge about childcare.

       




de

Rap videos, virtual running club, bookmobile: Teachers go above and beyond amid pandemic

Join IndyStar and #ThankATeacher during Teacher Appreciation Week. These are some educators that are making the best of a bad situation.

       




de

Teacher Appreciation Week: Students, parents, family and coworkers show their appreciation

This Teacher Appreciation Week, IndyStar asked readers to help recognize some of the amazing teachers going above and beyond during these times.

       




de

IU student files lawsuit, seeks reimbursement after class moved online due to coronavirus

An Indiana University student is suing the school, looking for a partial reimbursement on tuition and fees paid for the spring semester.

       




de

Sintomas do coronavírus: quais os novos sinais de covid-19 que as autoridades americanas acrescentaram à lista

Ao longo da pandemia e com rápida propagação do vírus, que já atingiu mais de 3 milhões de pessoas, tem surgido diversos outros sinais associados à enfermidade, como tremores e calafrios persistentes.




de

Autoridades americanas comemoram 'efeito certeiro' de remédio contra coronavírus

No mesmo dia, entretanto, uma publicação no periódico Lancet colocou dúvida sobre eficácia do remdesivir.




de

O que se sabe sobre a 'invasão frustrada' que terminou com a prisão de dois americanos na Venezuela

A tentativa resultou em pelo menos oito mortes e a prisão até agora de 13 pessoas, incluindo dois cidadãos americanos.




de

'Bolsonaro é líder mais isolado do populismo de direita hoje', diz pesquisador do extremismo político

Para Cas Mudde, que há três décadas estuda movimentos de ultradireita, presidente brasileiro pode sair politicamente enfraquecido da pandemia de covid-19.




de

Os 6 casos envolvendo aliados ou família de Bolsonaro que ficam em evidência com mudança de comando da PF

Ex-juiz da Lava Jato, Moro anunciou sua demissão do governo e acusou o presidente Bolsonaro de tentar interferir em investigações.




de

Coronavírus: 'O presidente revelou meu diagnóstico de covid-19 ao vivo na TV'

Sita Tyasutami foi identificada como a 'paciente zero' da doença na Indonésia.




de

Coronavírus: 'Países vão ter que se endividar para salvar o emprego e a vida das pessoas', diz presidente do BID

Para Luis Alberto Moreno, pandemia deixou ainda mais evidente a desigualdade da América Latina e mostrou necessidade de se investir na saúde pública regional.




de

Bolsonaro terá 'centrão', mas impeachment pode avançar se houver apoio popular, dizem autores de pedido

Ciro Gomes (PDT), Kim Kataguiri (DEM), Joice Hasselmann (PSL), Alessandro Molon (PSB) e outros autores de pedidos de impeachment de Bolsonaro avaliam as chances do impedimento prosseguir no Congresso.




de

Coronavírus: 'O assassino do meu filho não merece morrer de covid-19 na cadeia'

Mãe na Argentina diz temer que o assassino asmático do filho não sobreviva ao covid-19 na cadeia.




de

Por que 1ª pessoa infectada por coronavírus no Brasil pode nunca ser descoberta

Especialistas apontam que propagação de vírus pode ter começado antes de 25 de fevereiro, quando primeiro paciente foi diagnosticado com a covid-19.




de

Coronavírus: o mapa interativo que mostra as medidas e tipos de isolamento adotados na América Latina

Mapa interativo mostra medidas que países vizinhos vêm tomando desde primeiros casos registrados de covid-19 para restringir movimento dos cidadãos.




de

Coronavírus: pais deveriam interromper trabalho em casa para dar atenção a filhos na quarentena, diz especialista em infância

Apesar de serem menos afetadas pelo coronavírus, crianças são as que podem sofrer maiores efeitos sobre sua saúde no longo prazo, explica pesquisador americano Philip Fisher.




de

Mortes, testes e contágio: como o Brasil se compara a outros países na pandemia de coronavírus

BBC News Brasil apresenta situação do país no cenário internacional a partir de cinco dados: taxa de espalhamento da doença, taxa de morte por 1 milhão de habitantes, taxa de teste por mil habitantes, o número de dias que leva para dobrar o total de casos registrados e a previsão do PIB (soma de todas as riquezas produzidas) em 2020 e 2021.




de

Família de Aldir Blanc desmente Regina Duarte e diz que recebeu condolências de assessor

Em entrevista à CNN Brasil, secretária Especial da Cultura diz que optou por mandar mensagens privadas às famílias, em vez de fazer homenagens públicas.




de

O culto religioso que levou o coronavírus a cidade de MS

Cerimônia religiosa com mais de 30 pessoas foi organizada para receber dupla vinda de Osasco (SP); dias depois, os dois testaram positivo para covid-19.




de

Coronavírus: quantos casos e mortes por covid-19 há em sua cidade?

Buscador interativo permite consultar dados oficiais de todos os municípios afetados pelo vírus até o momento no Brasil.




de

'Coronavírus pode acabar com minha oportunidade de ser mãe': mulheres sofrem com suspensão de tratamento de fertilidade

Casais com problemas de fertilidade que estavam passando por processo de fertilização in vitro no Brasil temem perder chance de ter filhos por causa da pandemia.




de

Coronavírus: os pacientes de covid-19 que não conseguem se livrar da doença

A maioria dos pacientes se recupera rapidamente da covid-19 — os dados sugerem uma média de duas semanas; mas para alguns, os sintomas duram por muito mais tempo.




de

Pandemia de coronavírus evidencia 'velhofobia' no Brasil, diz antropóloga

Para Mirian Goldenberg, que pesquisa envelhecimento há 20 anos, "estamos assistindo horrorizados a discursos sórdidos, recheados de estigmas, preconceitos e violências contra os mais velhos".




de

Remessas de brasileiros nos EUA caem até 90%, mas podem aliviar auge da crise no Brasil

Como crise atingiu primeiro americanos, na opinião de analistas e operadores de empresas de remessas migrantes devem se recuperar financeiramente a tempo de socorrer familiares em suas cidades originais.




de

Dia do trabalhador sem estatística de emprego: governo não divulga número de contratações e demissões desde janeiro

Governo pretende divulgar os dados atrasados em maio, segundo afirmou à BBC News Brasil secretário do Trabalho do Ministério da Economia, Bruno Dalcolmo.




de

Coronavírus: o futuro incerto das viagens aéreas após a pandemia de covid-19

Observadores do setor preveem mudanças nos aeroportos e no tráfego de pessoas, além de temer demissões em massa, em meio a uma grande incerteza sobre o futuro próximo.




de

Coronavírus: as posturas conflitantes de Elon Musk e Mark Zuckerberg diante da pandemia

Enquanto o fundador do Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg, apoia medidas de isolamento, Elon Musk, da Tesla, está cada vez mais cético.




de

Dubrovnik, a cidade medieval planejada para a quarentena

Os ‘lazarettos’ de Dubrovnik são a memória da luta da cidade no combate a doenças infecciosas séculos atrás.




de

'Se encontrá-las, corra e nos chame!': cientistas nos EUA alertam para chegada de 'vespas assassinas'

Segundo estudos, insetos liberam toxina tão potente que pode causar a morte de uma pessoa que tiver levado várias picadas.




de

A descoberta nas fontes termais de Yellowstone, nos EUA, que se tornou chave para os testes da covid-19

Há meio século, Thomas Brock descobriu uma bactéria capaz de sobreviver a altas temperaturas; saiba como essa descoberta cruza com o combate à pandemia do novo coronavírus.




de

Eta Aquáridas: a impressionante chuva de meteoros do cometa Halley que atinge seu clímax nesta semana

Passagem da Terra pela trilha de resquícios do cometa Halley traz espetáculo de chuva de meteoros todos os anos; países da América do Sul estão entre os melhores posicionados para assistir a esse show noturno.