de Is the Treasury understating pension liabilities? By www.bbc.co.uk Published On :: Tue, 03 May 2011 17:18:11 +0000 Belatedly, I've got round to looking at the Treasury's recent decision to change how it calculates the necessary contributions that have to be made to cover the future costs of unfunded public service pensions. My interest was sparked by a letter sent to the chancellor by 23 pension experts, organised by the consultant John Ralfe. They argue that the Treasury has made a mistake in its choice of a new so-called discount rate. If you think this is tedious abstruse stuff that has no relevance to you, think again. The aggregate public-sector net liability for pensions is so huge - perhaps £1 trillion - that it matters to all of us as taxpayers, especially those likely to be paying tax in 10 and 20 years time, that the government has a reliable and accurate valuation of pension promises. Pensions represent, to coin the phrase, a massive off-balance-sheet debt. And as we've all learned to our cost from the financial crisis of 2007-8, it is a bad idea to carry on blithely pretending off-balance-sheet liabilities don't exist. So what is this blessed discount rate? Well in the private sector it can be seen as the number used to translate into today's money a commitment to pay £650 a week pension (for example) for 30 years or so to a retired employee (till he or she dies), so that we can see whether there's enough money in the pension fund to pay that employee (and all the other employees) during his or her long retirement. The point of the discount rate is to assess whether there's enough money in the pension fund - or whether it needs to be topped up. Which is all very well, except that for most of the public sector, there are no funds or pots of money to pay for future pensions. Most of the pension promises are unfunded, payable out of employees' current contributions and out of general taxation. That said, since public sector workers are increasingly expected to make a contribution to the costs of their own pensions, it would presumably be sensible for that contribution to be set at a level that is rationally related to the value of promised pensions. So what is the best way of measuring the cost today of new pension promises? Well the government has decided to "discount" those promises by the rate at which the economy is expected to grow. Now there is some logic to that: the growth rate of the economy should determine the growth rate of tax revenues; and the growth rate of tax revenues will have a direct bearing on whether future pension promises will bankrupt us all or not. But here's the thing. Any private sector chief executive might well be sent to prison if he or she decided to use the equivalent discount rate for a company, which would be the expected growth rate of that company's revenues or profits. The reason is that although it might be possible to remove subjectivity (or in a worst case, manipulation) from any long-term forecast of the growth of GDP or of a company's turnover, it is not possible to remove considerable uncertainty. To illustrate, the Treasury has chosen a GDP growth rate of 3% per annum as the discount rate for public sector pensions, which is considerably above the rate at which the UK economy has grown for years or indeed may grow for many years. If we were growing at 3%, we would in practice be less worried about the off-balance-sheet liabilities of public-sector pensions, because the on-balance-sheet debt of the government would not be growing at an unsustainably fast rate. To put it another way, in choosing its view of the long term growth rate of GDP as the discount rate, the Treasury is arguably understating the burden of future pensions to a considerable extent. So what discount rate do companies use? Well they are obliged to discount the liabilities at the yield or interest rate on AA rated corporate bonds. Which may not be ideal, but has some advantages: there is a market price for AA corporate bonds, so the yield or discount rate is difficult to manipulate by unscrupulous employers; and it tells the company how much money would need to be in the pension pot, on the basis that all the money were invested in relatively safe investments (AA corporate bonds). Now Ralfe and his chums believe that the discount rate for public sector promises should be the yield on long-term index linked gilts (gilts are bonds or debts of the British government) - partly because this too has a difficult-to-manipulate market price and because an index-linked government bond is a very similar liability to a public sector pension promise (both are protected against inflation, both are in effect debts of the government). They point out that gilt interest and principal payments are paid out of future tax revenues, just as future pensions are. So if the value today of future pensions should be discounted at the GDP rate, that's how index linked gilts should be value on the government's balance sheet - which would be bonkers. Anyway, if you've read this far (and many congratulations to you if you have), you may take the view that it would not be rational to impose a tougher discount rate on the government than on private-sector companies - which is what Ralfe et al seem to want, in that the yield on index linked gilts will always be lower than the yield on AA corporate bonds (because HMG, even with all its debts, is deemed to be more creditworthy than any British business). But for a government and for a chancellor who have made it a badge of honour to bring transparency and prudence to public-sector finances, prospective GDP growth does look a slightly rum discount rate for valuing those enormous pension liabilities. Full Article
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de IndyCar debate: Will Pagenaud or Power win series title? By rssfeeds.indystar.com Published On :: Fri, 16 Sep 2016 00:01:09 +0000 SONOMA, Calif. — Simon Pagenaud's excellence this Verizon IndyCar Series season can be summed with two words: One mistake. Full Article
de Cavin: Josef Newgarden to Penske the right move By rssfeeds.indystar.com Published On :: Wed, 05 Oct 2016 20:36:12 +0000 Don't blame Josef Newgarden for leaving Ed Carpenter's popular IndyCar Series team, and don't blame powerful Team Penske for signing Newgarden. It's the right thing to do for the employee and his new employer. Full Article
de Avon Schools close through March 20 after second student shows symptoms of the coronavirus By rssfeeds.indystar.com Published On :: Sat, 21 Mar 2020 04:01:15 +0000 All Avon schools will close through March 20 as one student has tested positive and a second student is showing symptoms of the novel coronavirus. Full Article
de As one Indiana school district closes amid COVID-19 concerns, others consider eLearning By rssfeeds.indystar.com Published On :: Sat, 21 Mar 2020 03:42:54 +0000 As districts prepare for the possibility of an outbreak of the novel coronavirus in their schools, most consider a move to online learning. Full Article
de MSD Lawrence Township is providing 5 days of breakfasts and lunches for students By rssfeeds.indystar.com Published On :: Mon, 16 Mar 2020 21:13:54 +0000 The school district provided free grab-and-go breakfasts and lunches for students Monday. It will do it again next Monday (March 23). Full Article
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de Waving and honking hello: Noblesville teachers have car parade to see students By rssfeeds.indystar.com Published On :: Mon, 23 Mar 2020 01:02:46 +0000 In less than 24 hours, teachers organized a parade of nearly 40 cars to say hello to students from afar. Full Article
de How Indianapolis helps first responders get child care By rssfeeds.indystar.com Published On :: Wed, 25 Mar 2020 21:25:47 +0000 The city of Indianapolis is offering discounted child care services to families of first responders. Here's why healthy practices are so important to combat the coronavirus. Full Article
de Indianapolis police investigating homicide on city's northwest side By rssfeeds.indystar.com Published On :: Fri, 27 Mar 2020 11:28:36 +0000 Indianapolis Metropolitan police are investigating after a man was found shot on the city's northwest side Thursday night. Full Article
de An untrue April Fools' Day prank scared students and angered officials By rssfeeds.indystar.com Published On :: Thu, 02 Apr 2020 19:10:02 +0000 The April Fools' prank is being shared in Indiana and other states across the nation. Full Article
de Indiana schools closed through the end of the academic year By rssfeeds.indystar.com Published On :: Thu, 02 Apr 2020 21:19:03 +0000 Indiana's K-12 schools will stayed closed through the end of the academic year as the state continues to fight the spread of the coronavirus. Full Article
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de Some families, students blocked from 'free internet' offers because of old debt By rssfeeds.indystar.com Published On :: Fri, 17 Apr 2020 20:32:49 +0000 Some families have said that they were denied free internet access, offered in response to the coronavirus, because of old debts. Full Article
de How fifth, eighth graders are preparing to leave elementary, middle school away from peers By rssfeeds.indystar.com Published On :: Tue, 21 Apr 2020 09:00:10 +0000 With schools closed, fifth and eighth grade students navigate the transition from elementary to middle school or middle to high school on their own. Full Article
de Colleges are getting millions to help students in need, but don't know how to spend it. By rssfeeds.indystar.com Published On :: Thu, 23 Apr 2020 13:10:43 +0000 Indiana colleges and universities are getting millions in federal CARES Act dollars but say they need more guidance on how to spend it. Full Article
de IU President McRobbie gives 5 scenarios for fall 2020 semester By rssfeeds.indystar.com Published On :: Thu, 30 Apr 2020 20:46:20 +0000 While a return to full, in-person classes is unlikely, IU President Michael McRobbie outlined five possibilities for the fall semester. Full Article
de As Indiana reopens, parents returning to work need to make decisions about child care By rssfeeds.indystar.com Published On :: Fri, 01 May 2020 21:29:12 +0000 As Indiana prepares to reopen its economy during coronavirus, parents who are returning to work are facing a new challenge about childcare. Full Article
de Rap videos, virtual running club, bookmobile: Teachers go above and beyond amid pandemic By rssfeeds.indystar.com Published On :: Mon, 04 May 2020 11:19:56 +0000 Join IndyStar and #ThankATeacher during Teacher Appreciation Week. These are some educators that are making the best of a bad situation. Full Article
de Teacher Appreciation Week: Students, parents, family and coworkers show their appreciation By rssfeeds.indystar.com Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 15:45:59 +0000 This Teacher Appreciation Week, IndyStar asked readers to help recognize some of the amazing teachers going above and beyond during these times. Full Article
de IU student files lawsuit, seeks reimbursement after class moved online due to coronavirus By rssfeeds.indystar.com Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 18:44:12 +0000 An Indiana University student is suing the school, looking for a partial reimbursement on tuition and fees paid for the spring semester. Full Article
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de Pandemia de coronavírus evidencia 'velhofobia' no Brasil, diz antropóloga By www.bbc.com Published On :: Sat, 02 May 2020 18:46:30 GMT Para Mirian Goldenberg, que pesquisa envelhecimento há 20 anos, "estamos assistindo horrorizados a discursos sórdidos, recheados de estigmas, preconceitos e violências contra os mais velhos". Full Article
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de 'Se encontrá-las, corra e nos chame!': cientistas nos EUA alertam para chegada de 'vespas assassinas' By www.bbc.com Published On :: Tue, 05 May 2020 09:00:26 GMT Segundo estudos, insetos liberam toxina tão potente que pode causar a morte de uma pessoa que tiver levado várias picadas. Full Article
de A descoberta nas fontes termais de Yellowstone, nos EUA, que se tornou chave para os testes da covid-19 By www.bbc.com Published On :: Tue, 05 May 2020 14:11:06 GMT Há meio século, Thomas Brock descobriu uma bactéria capaz de sobreviver a altas temperaturas; saiba como essa descoberta cruza com o combate à pandemia do novo coronavírus. Full Article
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