Cameroon, until now a point of stability in the region, faces potential instability in the run-up to the presidential elections scheduled for late 2011.

Election fever has spread across Central Africa. For the second time since the end of the disastrous civil wars in the region, electoral processes have been launched in Burundi, Rwanda, Central African Republic and the Congo.

In numerous countries, the exploitation of oil has generated debate about its economic, social and geopolitical consequences.

The UN's release of a long awaited report on crimes committed in the Democratic Republic of Congo between 1993-2003 is not only an opportunity to re-examine the historical record of mass violence in DRC -- the scale and nature of which was often overlooked in the wake of the genocide in neighboring Rwanda -- but is also a chance to correct the terms of the deceptive and fragile peace some leaders wish to proclaim in the resource-rich Great Lakes region of Africa.

Despite three agreements between the rebels and the government, peace is still elusive in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. The Kivus need regional dialogue and a clear, fair repatriation plan, argues Thierry Vircoulon at the International Crisis Group.

Extreme poverty and armed conflict in the diamond-rich areas of the Central African Republic (CAR) put thousands of lives in danger and demand urgent reform of the mining sector.

Chad’s North West may become the next stage for insurgency, drug-running and religious extremism in the Sahel if the government continues to actively neglect the poorest of the violence-plagued country’s poor regions.

The international watchdog which seeks to prevent diamonds from fuelling conflict, the Kimberley Process, should take a very close look at the situation in the Central African Republic

As legislation requiring large U.S. companies to disclose the origins of the minerals they use is meant to come into force this year, Crisis Group sent a mission to North Kivu to assess the different strategies used to fight conflict minerals and their impact in the field.

Faced with the dilemma of respecting the constitutional deadline and organising botched elections, or ignoring that deadline and sliding into a situation of unconstitutional power, the Congolese authorities have chosen the first option.

Of the three political upheavals that have hit the Maghreb since the beginning of 2011, the Libyan crisis seems to be the most dangerous. First of all for Libya, because the popular uprising has taken the form of an armed rebellion that has cut the country in two; second, for the West, now that NATO, under the cover of United Nations Resolution 1973 (2011) and in order to protect the civilian population, has entered the conflict on the side of the rebels, rashly gambling on a speedy war; and finally, for the region as a whole, because the conflict recently "overflowed" into Tunisia, and neighbouring countries are beginning to feel its humanitarian consequences.

The technical preparations for the presidential and legislative elections scheduled on 28 November and the beginning of the electoral campaign in the East of Congo have generated suspicion that risks developing into a crisis of confidence in the whole electoral process.

The fall of Qaddafi’s regime, followed by his death on 20 October, could pave the way to promises of democracy in Libya but left neighbouring countries facing new potential problems that could threaten stability in the region.

Insufficient political will has thwarted regional efforts to stop the murderous Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) but vigorous diplomacy led by the African Union (AU), an immediate military push and complementary civilian initiatives could end the misery of thousands.

Renewed oil interest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) could nurture communal resentments, exacerbate deep-rooted conflict dynamics and weaken national cohesion.

Rising piracy in the Gulf of Guinea, which supplies around 40 per cent of Europe’s oil and 29 per cent of the U.S.’s, demands effective regional security cooperation and better economic governance to prevent the region becoming another Gulf of Aden.

The fight against entrenched armed groups in eastern Congo such as the ADF-Nalu needs to switch from a military to an intelligence-based approach.

The collapse of the state and the disappearance of security forces from a large part of the territory may turn the Central African Republic (CAR) into a source of instability in the heart of Africa.
Please note the full report is only available in French.

South Africa’s efforts to foster peace and security have placed it centre stage in some of the continent’s most intractable conflicts. This is an inevitable result of the quest to promote “African solutions for African problems”.

The Framework Agreement signed by the UN, African organisations and eleven countries and the deployment of an intervention brigade in North Kivu are positive steps, but conflicts in the Kivu region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo also require a bottom-up approach aimed at improving intercommunal relations and restoring peace at the local level.

All this foreign involvement has failed to prevent the recent coup or stabilize its aftermath. BINUCA has not been able to implement a disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration program, and it failed to convince Bozizé’s regime to reform the security sector or consolidate the peace. ECCAS has been unable to restore order in one of the smallest capitals of Africa, and troop-contributing countries have proved unable to deliver the 600 extra soldiers they committed to provide in April. Paradoxically, France, while securing Bangui’s airport, is also hosting ousted president Bozizé, who declared from exile in Paris his wish to retake power by force with the “support” of private actors.

By failing to engage when Crisis Group and others warned that the Central African Republic had become a phantom state, the international community has now had to become much more heavily involved, at much greater expense, after horrifying loss of life and massive displacement, with much greater odds of failure.

Sensible, inclusive regulation of pastoralism that has mitigated tension in parts of the Sahel should be extended to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the Central African Republic (CAR), where conflicts have worsened with the southward expansion of pastoralism.

The United Nations Security Council decided on 10 April to deploy a peacekeeping mission in the Central African Republic (CAR) which will take over the mission of the African Union (MISCA), which itself succeeded the mission of the Economic Community of Central African States (MICOPAX).

The crisis that has been occurring in CAR is certainly the most dramatic in its history: more than 600 000 Central Africans are internally displaced or sought refuge in neighbouring countries; according to the United Nations, 1.7 million live in a constant situation of food insecurity and 878 000 need immediate medical assistance; Muslim communities are fleeing Bangui and the western region, subsistence economy no longer exists and the de facto partition of the country, caused by the sectarian violence, is gradually becoming a reality.