This event is part of the US and Americas Programme Inaugural Virtual Roundtable Series on the US and the State of the World and will take place virtually only.

This event will take place from 14:00 – 15:00 BST.

As countries grapple with how best to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic and the reverberations it is sending through their societies and economies, scientific understanding of how the virus is behaving, and what measures might best combat it, continues to advance. This briefing will focus on the progress towards and prospects for a coronavirus vaccine, exploring the scientific considerations, the production, distribution and allocation challenges as well as the access politics.

Join us for the eighth in a weekly series of interactive webinars on the coronavirus with Professor David Heymann and special guest, Professor David Salisbury, helping us to understand the facts and make sense of the latest developments in the global crisis. With 80 candidate vaccines reported to be in development, how will scientists and governments select the 'right' one? What should be the role of global leadership and international coordination in the development and distribution of a new vaccine? And can equitable access be ensured across the globe?

Professor Heymann is a world-leading authority on infectious disease outbreaks. He led the World Health Organization’s response to SARS and has been advising the organization on its response to the coronavirus.

Professor Salisbury was director of immunization at the UK Department of Health from 2007 to 2013. He was responsible for the national immunization programme and led the introduction of many new vaccines. He previously chaired the WHO’s Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization and served as co-chair of the Pandemic Influenza group of the G7 Global Health Security Initiative.

This event will be livestreamed.

In April 2020, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres called for a global ceasefire in order for communities and states to focus efforts on responding to the coronavirus outbreak. The consequences of armed conflict – including displacement, detention, lack of access to health services and disrupted social infrastructures – mean that those in conflict-ridden areas are amongst the most vulnerable to the virus. Observing international humanitarian law (IHL) could be one way of safeguarding against, at least, the provision of vital medical supplies and personnel for vulnerable groups. Against the backdrop of a growing health and economic emergency that is otherwise dominating government agendas, how do we emphasise the importance of humanitarian action and guarantee - or improve - compliance?

The panellists will discuss the remit and limitations of international humanitarian law and how the pandemic might complicate compliance. What is the framework for humanitarian action under international humanitarian law? What are the challenges to delivering relief? And how has COVID-19 impacted humanitarian action in conflict-ridden areas?

This event is for Chatham House members only. Not a member? Find out more.

Across the globe, leaders on the local, national and international levels are grappling with the impacts of COVID-19 on their communities and the economy. But the coronavirus pandemic is just one of several existential crises the world is currently facing. Climate change, political instability and growing tensions with China and Russia, along with a lack of strong global leadership, has made it more difficult for individual nations to respond and coalesce in times of crisis.

This discussion will explore how leaders at all levels can best negotiate both the practical issues and the larger questions associated with these ‘grand challenges’. How is current US foreign policy affecting our collective ability to respond to issues such as pandemics or climate change? Has the COVID-19 crisis cemented the US retreat from global leadership and if so, who might step into the breach? How do we maintain momentum on other issues in the midst of a public health disaster of this magnitude? And what is the role of the business community, higher education institutions and other sectors in responding to these crises and shaping future public policy?

This event is only open to Major Corporate Member and Partner organizations and selected giving circles of Chatham House. If you'd like to attend, please RSVP to lbedford@chathamhouse.org.

Kazakhstan has attracted international attention due to its energy resources, its relative openness to foreign investment and its proximity to Afghanistan, all of which influence its foreign policy. The withdrawal of ISAF forces from the region in 2014 and Kazakhstan's participation in a number of regional and international initiatives are also likely to play a role in shaping the country's foreign policy in the short to medium term.

Mr Idrissov will outline the main items on Astana's foreign policy agenda for approximately 15 minutes, followed by 45 minutes for questions and discussion.

Attendance is by invitation only. 

The violence in South Sudan this week suggests there could be worse times to come for the country. It will exacerbate the deep-rooted inter- and intra-tribal tensions that have defined the political landscape in South Sudan since it gained independence in 2011. It could also create a refugee dilemma for the country’s neighbours.

The dynamics of the leadership struggle between President Salva Kiir, a Dinka, and former vice president Riek Macher, a Nuer, colours politics throughout the country, illustrating the prevalence of political tribalism at the highest office. Following Kiir’s dismissal of Machar and the entire cabinet in July, neither this week’s attempted coup nor its heavy suppression will have come as a surprise to many in South Sudan.

The perception of Dinka domination pervading the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the Sudan People Liberation Army (SPLA) by other ethnic groups is not new. But it has become increasingly marked in a country with a fragile economy, limited opportunities for employment and deep-rooted patrimonialism throughout all tiers of government.

While there is a long-standing rivalry for power between the Dinka and Nuer, South Sudan’s two largest tribal groups, others, such as the Equatorians, perceive both groups as monopolizing power. Addressing this perceived inequity within the government will be integral to move beyond political tribalism towards an inclusive system of government that guarantees minority representation. Without this change, discontent and frustrations within the disenfranchised rural communities that make up the majority of the population are liable to rise to the surface, as this week’s events demonstrate.

While government policies since independence have been careful to use the language of inclusivity, the reality is very different. Jonglei, the largest of South Sudan’s ten states and home of the Nuer, has seen severe fighting between the Dinka, Nuer and Murle, for example. In December 2011 tribal attacks and counterattacks between Nuer and Murle caused at least 1,000 deaths. 

These tensions have been further aggravated by the failure of the central government to provide even basic levels of local governance, made worse by systemic corruption and patrimonialism. The extent of corruption, and the government’s lack of control over it, was demonstrated in 2012 when President Kiir issued a somewhat plaintive call to his government officials to return stolen cash.

Government reforms and legislation have stripped traditional authorities of their former functions and roles within local society, without reintegrating them into new roles within the government apparatus or providing viable alternatives. This has resulted in inconsistent and disparate systems of local governance throughout South Sudan, contributing to existing perceptions of inequity. This is often assumed to be based on tribal factors, regardless of whether this is in fact the case.

With tensions appearing to be unabated in the capital, Juba, and with the dry season approaching, which will facilitate a more mobile population, there is significant potential for security to deteriorate further. And it may not recover for a long time. Disgruntled and marginalized, the tribal populations that have felt excluded from the political process, or in the case of the Nuer, undermined in that process, may use the current political turbulence to bring matters to a head and challenge the authority of South Sudan’s leading figures.

A lasting conflict in South Sudan would likely lead to further displacement of people, which would place an increased strain on host communities in neighbouring countries. Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda already have a long history of accepting refugees from the Sudanese civil war. With the current flows of displaced populations from conflicts in Somalia, the Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo however, an additional influx of South Sudanese refugees would have the potential to overburden and destabilize the region further.

To comment on this article, please contact Chatham House Feedback

America is changing. So too is the rest of the world. But will America's internal changes carry broader implications for its role in the world, the influence and power it wields, and the foreign policy choices it makes?

While proving causality would be difficult, commonsense logic might suggest that a youthful America, one that has a more diverse ethnic and cultural makeup and that is more aware of its economic inequality, is also one that might hold more open, accepting (and perhaps liberal) views on a number of issues. However the record is mixed: while in some areas America is becoming more liberal, in others such as gun control and abortion, the trend seems to be towards the conservative.

But America is undergoing some fundamental transformations. America's demographics are changing. Unlike many in Asia and Europe, the US is remaining a relatively young country. It is also becoming more diverse. In 2011, there were more births in the US among minorities than Caucasians (minorities made up 50.4 per cent of the nation's population under one year old). Hispanics are the fastest growing segment of the population.

America, in common with many other countries, is also seeing a dramatic rise in the level of economic inequality. While the 2011 Occupy Wall Street movement spread to 900 cities around the world, the US is perhaps exceptional in the speed with which the social gap is widening and its size. These populations are also swiftly urbanizing.

The number of Americans who do not identify with any religion is growing rapidly. According to Pew Research polling, one-fifth of the US public are religiously unaffiliated today, the highest numbers recorded by them. Younger adults are more likely to have no religious affiliation than their elders, suggesting that this trend is likely to continue.

These changes could be contributing to the possible trend towards more liberal views in the US, led for the main part by cities and states. For example, while federal law continues to ban cannabis, in the summer of 2013, two states – Washington and Colorado – legalized it. Since Massachusetts in 2004 made gay marriage legal, 16 other states (and the District of Columbia) have followed suit, with nine of these decisions taking place in 2013. And, at a federal level, after 18 years of 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' (the law that prevented military personnel from disclosing that they were gay), the law was finally repealed in 2011 after years of debate.

One could also argue that the slow creep of some Republican platforms towards a more open social agenda is also an indication that, at least politically, some on the right recognize that to be reelected they need to move where they perceive the population to be (i.e. left of their position).

These demographic and political changes are taking place in a backdrop of some other important national trends. Over the past 10 years, the arrival of new technologies, most notably fracking, has led to an energy revolution in the United States. America's trend towards energy self-sufficiency is having a direct impact on the US economy and will have implications for its diplomacy. It is supporting 're-shoring' (the return of jobs to the US) which is rebuilding America's manufacturing and industrial base, and it is helping the US (along with the stimulus and other policies) climb out of recession faster than many of its European allies.

This is taking place in the context of the highest ever levels of political polarization (as measured by Congressional voting). For the first time last year, the most liberal Republican was to the right of the most conservative Democrat; the traditional overlap that facilitated the two political parties working together has now disappeared.

These trends are joined, and at times reinforced, by two other profound global factors: faster technological shifts and the dispersal of power.

As all these dynamics interact it will have implications for America's foreign policy and, as such, should be of interest to an international audience – with a caveat: Americans generally don't appear to care much about foreign policy and as such their impact on it is limited.

At a basic level, a youthful America is a productive one that is likely to retain relatively high growth rates. This is vital for its trading and investment partners, not least in Europe and Asia. While the US will soon have to deal with unaffordable entitlements (such as social security and health care) and needs to reenergize its early education, the fact that it still has a relatively low ratio of retirees to workers, means that it has a bit more time to manage this transition.

America's young and diverse population could also have an impact on America's soft power. The fact that increasing numbers of Americans affiliate as Asian-Americans or Hispanic-Americans (to name but two groups) could have profound effects on how the nation manages its relationships with these regions and is seen by their citizens. The proliferation of communications channels and the empowerment of the individual will only reinforce these tendencies.

The increase in people-to-people links likely to result is also a manifestation of the broader trend of the diffusion of power to other non-state actors. Over the long term, foreign policy is no longer going to be the exclusive right of the state, but other actors, from individuals to philanthropists and businesses, will play a role.

However at some level, while the young are taking advantage of new technologies to engage with their neighbours, and a more diverse population is linking with their families and friends overseas, the rising income inequality could be pushing the globalization agenda in the opposite direction. As those towards the bottom strata find technology taking away their jobs or corporates moving them overseas they are likely to push back. And their ability to be heard (individual empowerment once more) is only increasing.

Two regions in particular are likely to see specific foreign policy changes. In Latin America the inevitable shift on immigration (although it could still be some time in coming) will have potentially huge implications on migration of workers north. At the same time, America's 'war on drugs' has already begun to change under the Obama administration from a historically supply side driven policy to one that accepts (at least rhetorically) the need for addressing the demand side. This more nuanced policy could allow a more balanced policy agenda between the US and its southern neighbors.

And for Europeans, the young increasingly don't remember the Cold War and the importance of the Alliance in and after World War II (Obama is the first US president who didn't live through it). The ties that bind could in time weaken. This is only being reinforced by immigration trends; fewer citizens from Europe come to the US than from any other region of the world.

America is not, as some assert, becoming isolationist. 'Nation-building at home' may be Obama's focus, but this does not precipitate an abandonment of international engagement. These trends suggest instead that America might become more nuanced and collaborative in its relationships. America's diversity has always been a strength and as it increases, will continue to be one. America, more than any other nation, truly continues to be the global melting pot.

This article was originally published by the Huffington Post.

To comment on this article, please contact Chatham House Feedback

The landlocked southern African nation of Lesotho faces a number of domestic challenges in 2014. Reducing reliance on the agricultural sector, containing the prevalence of HIV and improving service delivery are all important issues that must be addressed to ensure sustainable growth. However, social achievements including literacy rates and levels of gender parity among the highest in Africa, the country’s potential for electricity exports, and the booming relationship between its textile industry and the United States, could mean Lesotho is well-placed for future growth and development. 

HE Prime Minister Tom Thabane will discuss how his government seeks to address the Lesotho’s domestic issues and how the country seeks to exert its influence in the regional Southern African Development Community.

From intimidation to restrictive laws and curbs on information, media outlets and individual journalists face a variety of threats to maintaining their independence and integrity in print and online. The panel will outline key challenges to international media freedoms, and Yavuz Baydar will share his experiences as a journalist in Turkey, a country that has faced growing criticism from the international community following a crackdown on social media sites, an increased pressure on its press and high numbers of detained journalists. 

LIVE STREAM: This event will be live streamed for members only. The live stream will be made available here at 18:30 BST on Tuesday 20 May.

ASK A QUESTION: Send questions for the speakers by email to questions@chathamhouse.org or using #askCH on Twitter. A selection will be put to them during the event.

This event will be followed by a reception.

This is an Under 35s Forum event.

Three years on from the Arab uprisings, many of the goals of the protests remain unmet. However, the spirit of collaboration which was nurtured during this time lives on and has resulted in an expansion of grassroots organizations, tech startups and artists’ collectives. At this roundtable, Maryam Jamshidi, author of The Future of the Arab Spring: Civic Entrepreneurship in Politics, Art, and Technology Startups, will argue that the Middle East’s ‘civic entrepreneurs’ continue to apply their talents to rebuilding their countries’ political, economic and social fabrics.

THIS EVENT IS NOW FULL AND REGISTRATION IS CLOSED.

This expert-level meeting will bring together policy-makers, analysts and Chatham House experts to discuss the crisis in Syria from the perspective of Syrian Kurds. 

Salih Muslim is a prominent member of the Kurdish opposition in Syria and chairman of the Democratic Union Party (PYD), which controls Rojava, an autonomous administration area in northern Syria. He is also the deputy coordinator of the National Coordination Committee for Democratic Change. At this roundtable he will discuss the movement for a political settlement and prospects for a Kurdish democratic model in Syria.

To enable as open a debate as possible, the question and answer session will be held under the Chatham House Rule.

Jocelyn Ford will share her experiences and insights from documenting the struggles of a widowed Tibetan facing ethnic discrimination in Beijing and gender discrimination in her village. The panel will then have a wider discussion about national identity and the issues facing ethnic minorities in China.  

This discussion coincides with the UK screening of Nowhere to Call Home: A Tibetan in Beijing and will include clips from the film.

In March 2014, Russian forces seized Crimea from Ukraine in a move that was condemned internationally but welcomed by many in Crimea’s Russian majority community. A team from Channel 4’s Unreported World will show their upcoming film, Miss Crimea, which follows a young Crimean Tatar competing in the Miss Crimea beauty contest and examines how the Crimean Tatar community has been affected by the Russian takeover. Against this backdrop, the panel will explore how the issue of ethnicity has become more politically charged since the annexation and the impact that this has had on ordinary citizens from different ethnic groups.

This is an Under 35s Forum event. The event will be followed by a reception.

The event is held in association with Channel 4.

The international community’s response to the Syria crisis has been unsatisfactory on many fronts, and humanitarian aid and development is no exception. While there has been renewed emphasis by development organizations on the importance of engaging local actors − notably highlighted in the new Sustainable Development Goals − the reality is this has been woefully lacking in practice. And Syria is simply one example of many where the failure of UN agencies and other humanitarian actors to partner with local actors has hampered the response to humanitarian crises.

Double standards

The problem is that international agencies usually have high and unfair expectations from Syrian individuals and organizations, requiring them to speak the ‘language’ of development, meet international standards, and demonstrate a wide range of expertise. However, these demands are not reciprocated by international organizations and experts being expected to have the same depth of knowledge of the local context in which they are operating. In addition, while Syrian actors are expected to be neutral, impartial and politically unaffiliated, foreign aid appears to be driven − explicitly and unashamedly − by the political objectives of the donor countries.

There is a double standard at work. In many cases, international ‘experts’ on Syria have little local knowledge, but there are no channels to measure or question their level of expertise. At the same time, including local Syrians in decision-making is seen as a threat to predetermined objectives, rather than as an asset.

Syrians could add an indispensable source of knowledge and context to international agencies, as well as add local credibility. But too often they are brought on board to be part of the humanitarian and development picture or to get their simple feedback for evaluation and needs assessment reports to satisfy donors’ requirements, rather than employed as an integral component of designing and implementing projects. Though some of this is down to a pretext of lack of capacity, it raises the question of whether there is an international political willingness and genuine organizational courage to involve Syrians at programming, decision and policy making-levels.

The importance of local

The Syrian example is not isolated. While there is now a debate to encourage engaging local actors, this does not happen in practice. The Local to Global Protection Initiative study reported that local and national humanitarian actors received only 0.2% of the overall direct global humanitarian response in 2013.

Moreover, the international humanitarian and development systems are designed, together with foreign aid policy, to be self-contained and to exclude local actors. This allows donor governments to use the systems as political tools for leveraging control. It is equally difficult for both outsiders as well as insiders to understand how the system really functions. The UN-led coordination structure is one example of the heavy international architecture that remains unable to reform itself, learn from its previous mistakes, or to engage with local actors.

And that engagement matters. The Independent Research Forum emphasized in its brief in February 2014 how engaging local researchers and implementing bottom-up participatory learning can make countries better prepared to achieve the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals. Those goals, as well as the upcoming World Humanitarian Summit, highlight the importance of including local actors in the humanitarian and development responses.

Moving forward

Fortunately, such initiatives are creating a momentum within the development community to make radical changes through bottom-up approaches that put sustainability into practice. But if the Sustainable Development Goals want to affect real change, there will have to be a significant drive to move from rhetoric and ‘intentions’ to reality and actions. Currently it seems that the international community prefers to simply maintain the current status quo. It only takes a brief reflection on how many Syrians are included in every project or programme and how many Syrians are in positions to contribute at the policy and decision-making levels to realise the scale of the impetus required to change this system. To make that change might provide an opportunity for Syrians to restore some of the ownership to the outcomes and decisions of their conflict.

To comment on this article, please contact Chatham House Feedback

This roundtable will explore the role of and the challenges faced by both the international community and local civil society in countering sectarian narratives in the Middle East and North Africa region. Speakers will draw on their experiences working with communities in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Egypt to discuss potential contributions that can be made at the local, national, and international level in tackling the root causes of religious division and facilitating positive community relations.

This inaugural Asfari Forum is sponsored by the Asfari Foundation.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only.

In 2011, many Syrians took to the streets of Damascus to demand the overthrow of the government of Bashar al-Assad. Today, much of Syria has become a warzone and many worry that the country is on the brink of collapse.

Drawing on first-hand testimonies from opposition fighters, exiles and human rights activists, the panel will explore the complicated reality of life in present-day Syria. Looking at the militarization of the uprising, the rise of the Islamists and sectarian warfare, and the role of Syria’s government in the conflict, the speakers will discuss the issues from the grassroots to the geopolitical, including the role of the international community in bringing to an end the bloodshed.

This event is now full and registration has closed. An audio recording will be made available shortly after the event has taken place.

This panel will discuss the phenomenon of settlement and the role of settlers in modern conflicts, drawing from recently published work on Israel and the West Bank, Turkish settlers in Cyprus and government run farmer settlement schemes in Sri Lanka.

The panelists, experts in the respective cases, will analyse the role of settlers in mobilization and violence, the conceptual framing of settlement during negotiations and the clash of legal principles versus pragmatism for the resolution of these conflicts. Looking beyond these specific cases, the panel will also raise larger questions about settlers and settlement in international politics.

Signs of growing anger at the restrained denunciation of Pennsylvania-based Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen - whose followers are thought to have played a key role in the attempted coup - are being vocalised more and more, but this criticism only shows part of the true picture.

It is true that prominent liberal Turkish intellectual Soli Ozel spoke for many when he criticised EU politicians and Western media for failing to recognise the “invaluable democratic resistance shown by all political parties in a parliament bombed by war planes”, as well as demonstrating “a lack of sensitivity, empathy and solidarity that cannot be easily digested” by not sending anyone from an EU institution to offer solidarity with the Turkish parliament.

The criticism is reasonable - officials from Western governments and regional institutions such as the Council of Europe exhibited unconditional solidarity with Ukraine during its bitter feud with Russia, which leads some to believe that Muslim-majority Turkey does not apparently deserve the same treatment as its neighbours also experiencing an unlawful attempt to seize control of the state.

Moral authority at risk

It is also right that the West should have censured the coup plotters more forcefully and built upon Turkey’s fragile unity to encourage the country to pursue further democratic reform. To quote former Swedish Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt: “Europe risks losing its moral authority if it does not appear particularly engaged in dealing with the coup itself.”

In addition, the EU’s strong criticism of Turkey but not France, for imposing a state of emergency and for temporarily suspending the European Convention on Human Rights, undeniably, smacks of double-standards.

However, some of the criticism falls short. To begin with, the West’s tepidity can be explained (though not wholly justified) by Erdogan’s abrasive behaviour at home and towards Western and international media.

Just three days after the coup, Erdogan threatened in his characteristically defiant tone to revive the controversial construction plans that sparked the 2013 Gezi Park protests, saying: “If we want to preserve our history, we must rebuild this historic [Ottoman-era barracks] structure, [and] we will rebuild it.”

It is also fair for Turkey to be reproached for the widespread crackdown against tens of thousands of suspected Gulenists in the aftermath of the coup. Even if it is conceivable that all 1,577 university deans who were forced to resign were Gulenists, this action will also have a lasting negative impact on the reputations and career prospects of academics unconnected to Gulen.

Fervour against Gulenism

The vigilance by the West is understandable given the Turkish government’s fervour against Gulenism in the immediate post-coup period. It would make no sense for the West to attack the coup and yet, at the same time, equivocate on flagrant violations of due process and human rights. Both efforts are mutually inclusive and identifying such violations has the greatest potential to encourage policy reversals or corrective measures.

Similarly understandable is the attention on Erdogan himself. He is the most formidable and powerful figure in a hierarchical and top-down political system, able to make fateful decisions with few effective checks and balances. He single-handedly replaced Ahmet Davutoglu as prime minister with Binali Yildirim in a clear breach of the Turkish constitution.

Despite Erdogan’s tactical attempts at embracing all the opposition parties apart from the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), his refusal to renounce his ambition to transform Turkey into a powerful executive presidency indicates that this fragile political unity will not last.

Only the West has the wherewithal to moderate his policies by continuing to express its friendship with Turkey, whilst not shying away from closely monitoring, scrutinising and commenting on the post-coup developments.

Want to comment on this article?

Contact Chatham House Feedback

Join the conversation about this piece on Facebook

The void in governance created by the ongoing Syrian conflict has been capitalized upon by warlords, militias and extremist groups to expand and consolidate their power – but has also helped to generate activism, with new leaders born as a reaction to authoritarian governance and conflict limitations.

As public social services have been taken over as war tools, local coordination committees, local councils, humanitarian support groups, citizen journalist networks, women’s groups, and more, have mushroomed across all of Syria. But this new civil society continues to be threatened by many challenges.

It remains hindered by structural weakness and limited capacity - largely as a result of the legacy of Ba’athist policies, which did not allow civil society to exist in the so-called Damascus Spring, but only under the umbrella of the Government, First Lady Asma al-Assad and business NGOs (GoNGOs, FLNGOs and BoNGOs). Beyond this, civil society was limited to purely charitable and religious causes, known as “moujtamaa ahli”.

In addition, Syrian civil society is often a victim of counter-terrorism legislation, with laws and regulations across many countries and institutions prohibiting Syrians from registering an organization and opening bank accounts.  This makes it difficult to secure financial support in an environment where funding has already been dwindling due to a “Syria fatigue” among potential donors, and where any money available is mainly directed at large, often international, NGOs.

Trust, hope and legitimacy

To reach funds, many organizations have to submit to this “NGOization” process. But even this rarely allows for civil society to foster its own interests through core funding. Civil society in Syria is treated more as a “project” with strict indicators, deals and deadlines, when working under conflict necessitates building relationships of trust with a community over time and often has to cover the direct needs on the ground to gain local legitimacy and increase effectiveness. Trust, hope and legitimacy are not aspects you can report against or cover in a sophisticated proposal.

But despite such obstacles, activists and civil society groups continue to volunteer for various causes, ensuring many have not had to seek refuge elsewhere. And their work has included challenging authoritarian and extremist governance.

In Aleppo in 2014, it was civil society with the support of a military faction of Jaish Al Mujahideen that helped expel ISIS. Local councils have since been providing services ranging from humanitarian aid and garbage collection to re-establishing order and resolving local conflicts, thus challenging the legitimacy of jihadist institutions.

NGOs such as the Civil Defense Forces (known as the White Helmets) continually risk their lives to save others by rescuing people from bombed out buildings. On September 19, when a UN sanctioned aid convoy was attacked in Aleppo – reportedly by Russian aircraft – it was the White Helmets that responded, before then coming under attack themselves.

Human rights activists, meanwhile, persist in documenting human rights abuses in the hope that the perpetrators will eventually be held accountable.

However, a Syrian civil society tragedy is unfolding as their work is struggling to survive. To give but one example, Kesh Malek, one of the biggest groups running home-based schooling for children in Aleppo, has already had to close some of its schools.

Lacking international protection, the fate of these children in relation to arms and radicalization is all the more alarming.  Several local councils have also been much weakened, especially vis-à-vis warlords, authoritarian and/or extremists actors.

At its best, the current bombing campaign serves to kill any potential alternatives to an authoritarian regime, and only boosts human suffering, radicalization and displacement.

If this situation is to be reversed, international actors need to ensure security at the local Syrian level, showing that Syrian security is as important as that of Europe.

This means financial security through a deeper and more sustainable capacity building and funding to civil society, and it means protecting civilians and civil society groups though the creation of a safe haven.

To comment on this article, please contact Chatham House Feedback

2019 has seen a record number of people migrating from Central America’s Northern Triangle – an area that covers El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. Estimates from June 2019 have placed the number of migrants at nearly double of what they were in 2018 with the increase in numbers stemming from a lack of economic opportunity combined with a rise in crime and insecurity in the region. The impacts of migration can already be felt within the affected states as the exodus has played a significant role in weakening labour markets and contributing to a ‘brain drain’ in the region. It has also played an increasingly active role in the upcoming US presidential election with some calling for more security on the border to curb immigration while others argue that a more effective strategy is needed to address the sources of migration. 

What are the core causes of Central American migration and how have the US, Central American and now also Mexican governments facilitated and deterred migration from the region? Can institutions be strengthened to alleviate the causes of migration? And what possible policy alternatives and solutions are there that could alleviate the pressures individuals and communities feel to migrate?   

Anita Isaacs, professor of Political Science at Haverford College and co-director of the Migration Encounters Project, and Juan Ricard Ortega, principal advisor for Central America at the Inter-American Development Bank, will join us for a discussion on the core drivers of migration within and across Central America.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only. 

The Chagos archipelago in the Indian Ocean has garnered media attention recently after the UK failed to abide by a UN deadline to return the islands to Mauritius. The US has landed in the middle of the dispute as a 1965 agreement with the UK has allowed the US to establish a military base on one of the islands, Diego Garcia, which has since become instrumental in US missions in the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. 

In February 2019, an Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) found that the Chagos archipelago was unlawfully dismembered from Mauritius, in violation of the right to self-determination and that the United Kingdom is under an obligation to end its administration of the Chagos archipelago ‘as rapidly as possible’. The UN General Assembly subsequently voted overwhelmingly in favour of the UK leaving the islands by the end of November 2019 and the right of the former residents who were removed by the UK to return. The UK does not accept the ICJ and UN rulings and argues that the islands are needed to protect Britain from security threats while Mauritius has made clear the base can remain.

Professor Philippe Sands QC, professor of law at University College London and lead counsel for Mauritius on the ICJ case on Legal Consequences of the Separation of the Chagos archipelago from Mauritius in 1965, will be joining Ambassador Richard Burt, US chief negotiator in the Strategic Arms Reduction Talks with the former Soviet Union for a discussion on the fate of the archipelago including the future of the military base and the right of return of former residents.  

Attendance at this event is by invitation only.