Adaptive and maladaptive behavior scales, including the Scales of Independent Behavior - Revised (SIB-R), the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales, the AAMR Adaptive Behavior Scales (ABS) and the Inventory for Client and Agency Planning (ICAP).

Adaptive behavior tests approved for evaluating students for Exceptional Student Education services, Florida Department of Education.

No matter where you live around the world, you might have seen “dark” stores — retail giants that have moved from selling products in-store to creating a fulfillment center in the physical store space.

From projects to initiatives, the packaging industry is out to show that it’s serious about the planet.

Waldner North America expert stresses the importance of choosing flexible machines that allow for efficient operations when changing between products and formats.

Since the repositioning, consumer perceptions of quality, relevancy and occasion appropriateness have all grown double digits.

A biofriendly new material made from barley starch blended with fiber from sugar-beet waste sees the light of day at the University of Copenhagen – a strong material that turns into compost should it end up in nature.

It’s no secret that 2020 has been a year like no other. As the coronavirus pandemic swept across the globe, Americans had to adjust to a new reality: wearing masks, social distancing and staying home as much as possible. 

Dart has become a PulPac licensee and is installing the first Dry Molded Fiber production line of its kind in North America: the PulPac Scala.

New 34,000 square foot facility enables Atlantic Packaging to further support West Coast customers and the continued transition to sustainable packaging.

The ACP-722 RRP offers one of the smallest footprints currently available, being up to 50% smaller than equivalent casepacker models.

At present, the bottles are the only kind of plastic food packaging in Switzerland that can be recycled and reprocessed in a closed cycle.

Strapping systems can be a great solution for packaging temperature-sensitive products by providing load breathability, which is essential for maintaining cold temperatures in transit.

The petition aims to resolve unequal amounts of product in hot dog and hot dog bun packages.

Acquisition will provide Amcor with a fully integrated, production-ready fresh protein packaging solution.

The VELTEKO WASHDOWN-360 vertical packaging machine can be used in operations with more stringent hygiene requirements as well as anywhere that liquids need to be packaged.

The packaging solutions will be on display at Pack Expo Las Vegas Booth N-10942, September 11-13. 

The tortillas are made without preservatives but have a shelf life of six months thanks to their protective carbon dioxide and nitrogen atmospheres – provided that the thermoformed packaging is absolutely airtight.

Filling The Labour Gaps The Key To A Thriving Tourism Industry In Canada jhammond@desti… Wed, 10/30/2024 - 15:35

What do you charge for your teaching? If you want to take a fresh look at your tuition model, join us on Wednesday for an online discussion about this most important subject.

A note via Bank of America economists on expectations and wariness on US October CPI data due Wednesday at 8.30 am US Eastern time.

BoA expect core CPI to show an increase of 0.3% m/m month

• holding at 3.3% y/y
• would be the third consecutive month with a 3.3% core reading

BoA say that looking ahead, the rise is inflation tilted to the upside:

• "We see pro-growth fiscal policy, tariffs, and tighter immigration as potential sources of upside inflation risk over the coming years if they are implemented"

Higher inflation to come would slow/halt/reverse (you can pick more than one ;-)) Federal Reserve rate cuts.

0900 GMT / 0400 US Eastern time: Olli Rehn, Governor of the Bank of Finland, and Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speak on a panel at a conference organised by UBS in London

As Governor of the Bank of Finland Rehn is a member of the European Central Bank monetary policy board, the Governing Council.

Thus we'll get policy/economy comments relevant for the ECB and BoE for this one.

Comments from the Minneapolis Fed President in conversation with Yahoo Finance.

• Contacts are optimistic
• We have to wait and see what the new government policies are, we will have to wait and see
• A one-time tariff increase in transitory but it can become tit-for-tat, right now we're all just guessing
• Immigration could have a big effect but we will have to see what will happen
• New lease inflation takes a couple years to work its way through
• We have good confidence that the housing piece of inflation will get to normal levels, though it may take a year or two
• The labor market has been surprisingly resilient, it's a good labor market
• The economy looks like it's in a strong position
• If we saw inflation surprise to the upside between now and December, that might give us pause
• Probably not enough time for jobs to surprise on the upside
• Productivity looks like it's been stronger, which could mean a higher neutral rate
• If so, we may not cut as much
• We all agree that we're above neutral now
• The rise in long-term yields doesn't look like it's about long-term inflation expectations
• I think we're modestly restrictive right now. I thought we were putting two feet on the brakes but in hindsight we were only putting one foot on the brake
• My judgement is that we still have a long ways to go in shrinking the balance sheet
• Ultimately the economy will guide us in terms of how far we need to cut rates

Kashkari is candid and is oftentimes dovish but he sounded less like someone who wants to keep on cutting. His comment about one foot on the brakes was helpful in illustrating how he sees the economy and rates. The interesting discussion is about neutral right now and how close the Fed wants to go. He also touched on a longer timeline to get inflation all the way back to 2% and that should keep the Fed in the high 3s assuming no sharp slowdown in the economy. Of course, the Fed curve is also pricing 3.80% as the terminal rate.

The People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.

• USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.
• CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.
• A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected is typically considered a signal from the PBOC.

Previous reference rate was 7.2355.

The setting at 7.1991, about 300-odd points lower than the modelled estimate is indicative of the PBoC pushing back against yuan weakness. AUD/USD has popped a little on the setting of a stronger than expected yuan.

PBOC injects 233bn yuan via 7-day RR, sets rate at 1.5%

• 17bn yuan mature today
• net injection is 216bn yuan

/*/*

Justin had the news from the People's Bank of China here on Monday:

• PBOC governor will maintain yuan exchange rate at a reasonable, balanced level

The PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized that the Bank will not let the yuan plummet without a fight:

• Will step up countercyclical adjustment
• Should resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot

Today is an example of the Bank pushing back on yuan weakness, with the reference rate set 300+ points stronger for the CNY than was expected (in the Reuters model).

Offshore yuan has jumped (lower USD/CNH as shown in the chart below):

More records are reached today:

• Dow industrial average closes over 44,000 for the first time ever
• S&P index closes above the 6000 level the first time ever
• NASDAQ index closes at a new record level as well

For the Russell 2000 it lasts record close was back on November 8, 2021 at 2442.21. The index closed at 2434.97 after reaching an intraday high of 2441.72 just short of the record closing level.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average +304.14 points or 0.69% at 44293.13
• S&P index up 5.81 points or 0.10% at 6001.35
• NASDAQ index is up 11.99 points or 0.06% at 19298.76
• Russell 2000 up 35.33 points or 1.47% at 2434.97

For the Russell 2000, its high intraday level reached 2458.85 on November 10, 2021. For the year, the Russell 2000 is now up 20.12%. That has now surpassed a down industrial average gain of 17.52%.

The S&P index is now up 25.82% in 2024 while the NASDAQ index is up 28.56%.

As the North American session begins, the bond traders return after a day off in observance of Veterans Day. Yields are higher to start their trading week with the 2 year up 6.5 basis points at 4.319% and the 10 year up 6.3 basis points at 4.371%. The 2 year yield has moved to a new high going back to July 31 today (4.336%). For the 10 year, it traded as high as 4.773% last week, but fell into Friday with the low reaching 4.558% before bouncing modestly on Friday. That upside has reached 4.64% today - off the low but below the high from last week.

Bitcoin moved to a high of $89,983 today - a new record - but has come off and trades at $86,430 currently. The low reached $85208 today in volatile trading.

Oil is higher after falling over 3% lower yesterday. The price is up 43% or 0.64% at $68.52 currently. The high reached $68.76 and a low at $67.78.

Gold is down another $11 or -.045% at $2607.28. The low reached $2589.80 before bouncing.

In the US stock market, the major indices are marginally higher after record closes across the three major indices. The Russell 2000 which has not reached a high since July 2021 got within shouting distance of it record at 2437.08. The high yesterday reached 2441.72. The Dow futures are imploring a gain of 78 points. The S&P is up 1.65 points and the Nasdaq index is now up 7.91 points.

There will be several Fed speakers today with Governor Waller, Minneapolis Fed Pres. Kashkari, Philadelphia Fed Pres. Parker, and Richmond Fed Pres. Barkin all scheduled to speak

ECB policymaker Olli Rehn emphasized that while the direction of the ECB’s monetary policy is clear, the pace of any changes will be data-dependent. The economic outlook, impacted by a struggling manufacturing sector, has deteriorated. Rehn suggested that if disinflation continues, it could support additional rate cuts, with the ECB potentially moving away from restrictive policy territory by spring 2025. He warned against protectionism, noting that tariffs would have a medium-to-long-term impact and are inherently inflationary. With growth in the euro area expected to remain sluggish and downside risks prevalent, Rehn awaits the December projections for a clearer assessment of the economic landscape.

EURUSD: The selling in the EURUSD continue as a less friendly US with Pres. Elect Trump, spell slower growth with increased tariffs the concern. Technically, the price initially moved higher in the Asian session but found willing sellers near the low of the swing area between 1.0663 and 1.06703. That was swing lows in June 2024. Staying below kept the sellers in control, and they pushed lower. The price has since moved down to a low of 1.0606 which tests the lows from April when a series of swing lows bottomed the pair. Those levels are also the lows for the year (going back to October 2023).

USDJPY: The USDJPY rose yesterday and then stalled in the US session between 153.59 to 153.88 (swing area). Recall, the 153.88 level was a swing high from July 31. The highs from October 28 and October 29 was at 153.88 too. Today, the price moved lower and below the swing area low, BUT found support at the 61.8% of the move down from the July high. That level comes in at 153.397. Going forward, that hold increases that technical levels importance as support. Move below would increase the bearish bias in the short term at least.

On the topside, the price has now moved back above the 153.88 level (bullish). If the price can stay above that level now, that would be the most bullish technical scenario as buyers show their strength on the break. On the topside, the 154.54 up to 155.09 would be the next target area to stretch towards. Get above that area over time, and it adds to the bullish bias. Buyers making a play. Can they keep the momentum going?

GBPUSD:The GBPUSD fell below the lows from the last 2 weeks (last week low was at 1.28329) and sellers jumped, pushing the price through the 200 day MA at 1.28178. The breaks are more bearish and the low price reached 1.27915 and has bounced. The price has traded above and below the 200-day MA at 1.28179, but has so far stayed below the low from last week at 1.28329. If the price moves back above that level and momentum back to the upside is able to get above 1.2844 and the 50% of the move up from the April low at 1.2866, the buyers are showing some strength and the sellers will start worrying about the failures more and more. Conversely, if the price can stay below the 1.2832 and 1.2844 that keeps the sellers confidence high, but gettng below the 200-day MA is still required again. The price is currently trading near the 200-day MA but remains below 1.28329.

USDCHF: The USDCHF extended above the 200 day MA at 0.88176 and also a swing area from 0.88187 to 0.8825. That was a bullish move and the price moved to a high of 0.88303 but failed. The price is back below the 200 day MA and swing area. The price is trading near 0.8800 (0.8802 is the low). ON the downside the 50% is at 0.87986. If that is broken, then the swing area, the 200 day MA and the 50% failed. That should give buyers cause for pause as the buyers had their shot, and they missed. But the price still needs to get below 50%.

In the kickstart video, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs:

EUR/USD Summary

The EUR/USD continued its downward trend due to concerns over slower economic growth and increased tariffs under President-elect Trump.

Key Points:

• Initially rose in the Asian session, but sellers took control near 1.0665-1.06703 swing area. That area was the lows from back in June.

• Staying below the lows from June kept the sellers in control

• Reached a low of 1.0606, testing April's swing lows and the year's lows (since October 2023). A move below the 1.0600 increases the bearish bias.

• Buyers may lean against the low as risk can be defined and limited against the level with stops on a break below.

-------------------------------------------

USD/JPY Summary

The USD/JPY exhibited volatility, with potential bullish signals.

Key Points:

1. Rose yesterday, then stalled between 153.59-153.88 (swing area).

2. Found support at 153.397 (61.8% of July's move down).

3. Broke above 153.88 (bullish signal).

4. Next targets: 154.54-155.09.

Outlook:

Bullish Scenario

Stay above 153.88, targeting 154.54-155.09.

Bearish Scenario

Move below 153.397 increases short-term bearish bias.

--------------------------------------------------

GBP/USD Summary

The GBP/USD fell, breaking below two-week lows and the 200-day MA.

Key Points:

1. Broke below last week's low (1.28329) and 200-day MA (1.28178).

2. Reached 1.27915, then bounced.

3. Traded above and below 200-day MA.

Outlook:

Bullish Scenario

Move above 1.28329, 1.2844, and 1.2866 (50% of April's move) indicates buyer strength.

Bearish Scenario

Stay below 1.28329 and 1.2844 maintains seller confidence; breaking below 200-day MA again confirms bearish trend.

The USDCHF has moved up to a high of 0.88357. That is just short of a high swing area on the daily chart above at 0.88379. Get above that level and stay above, opens the door for more upside momentum.

ON the downside, the closest risk is the 200 day MA, but more conservative risk would be the 50% of the move down from the May high at 0.87986. I would think that short term traders seeing a move above the 50% and the 200 day MA would want to see both those technical levels remain broken.

If not, there could be some disappointment on the failed break and more downside corrective probing.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

There were numerous Fed speakers on Tuesday, US time:

• Fed's Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I'm optimistic that will continue
• Fed's Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolves
• Fed's Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook

and we get one more today in Asia:

• 2200 GMT / 1700 US Eastern time - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speaks on "Fintech, AI and the Changing Financial Landscape".

Which doesn't sound too promising for remarks from him on the economy or monetary policy. But, perhaps we'll get a mortsel thrown to us in any Q&A.

***

As for the data agenda, it's a bit of a yawn, none of it likely to move around major FX upon release.

From Japan we'll get an update of wholesale inflation - the PPI for October. The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI)

• its a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output
• is calculated by the Bank of Japan

Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the price change that consumers see for a basket of goods and services, the CGPI focuses on the change in the prices of goods sold by companies.

The PPI reflects some of cost pressures faced by producers

• its based on a basket of goods that represents the range of products produced within the Japanese economy, including items such as:
  • raw materials like metals and chemicals
  • semi-finished goods
  • and finished products
  • different weights are assigned to each category within the index based on its contribution to the overall economy.
• it does not account for the quality improvements in goods and services over time, which might lead to overestimation of inflation
  • additionally, it reflects only the prices of domestically produced goods, leaving out the impact of imported goods

The PPI can be used as a guide to inflationary pressures in the economy:

• If producers are facing higher costs, they may pass these on to consumers, leading to higher consumer prices.

***

From Australia we'll get wages data for Q3. Wage growth is expected to keep slowing (y/y) in Q3 2024. With the labor market softening, upward pressure on wages has been easing over recent quarters.

In Commonwealth Bank of Australia's preview they cite their internal data as indicating a quarterly wage growth of around 0.9%, a notable decrease from the 1.3% growth seen in the same quarter last year, which had been boosted by a significant 5.75% increase in award and minimum wages. As a result, the annual wage growth rate is projected to fall to 3.6%, bringing it closer to a level compatible with sustainable, in-target inflation.

While the labour market softening, but from strong levels, the RBA is eyeing wage growth as a factor helping keep inflation sticky. A moderation in growth for wages will be welcomed by the bank if it translates into softening price pressure also.

• This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
• I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.

The major US stock indices are all closing lower. No new records today.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow Industrial average -382.15 points or -0.86% at 43910.98
• S&P -17.36 points or -0.29% and 5983.99.
• NASDAQ index -17.36 points or -0.09% at 19281.40.

The small-cap was 2000 with a decline of -43.13 points or -1.77% at 2391.84.

CPI data from the US due today, Wednesday, November 13, 2024.

Greg popped up a preview earlier:

• US CPI to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for 0.2% MoM

In a recent note, BMO previewed the data also. Analysts at the bank suggest that any significant influence from recent storms on inflation data is likely limited, meaning market reactions to any deviation in core inflation—either upward or downward—may be pronounced.

The consensus forecast calls for a steady +0.3% rise in core CPI for the month, with expectations leaning toward a possible upside surprise.

A +0.4% reading or higher would make waves, particularly against the backdrop of the recent election results. The logic suggests that if inflation was already ticking up before the GOP’s victory, the added impact of tariffs and potential trade conflicts could fuel further inflationary momentum. However, BMO analysts also point out that while targeted tariffs may not universally drive up prices, this assumption currently shapes US rates market sentiment. With this market outlook in mind, BMO expects that an upside surprise in October’s inflation numbers could have a meaningful impact on yields, increasing their upward trajectory.

At present, actual inflation data is seen as the most direct factor that could push 10-year yields beyond the 4.50% threshold. A softer-than-expected core CPI reading could trigger a rally in the Treasury market, though there appears to be a limit to how much the market will temper expectations for inflation following Trump’s victory. Instead, BMO anticipates the market will continue to define a trading range in this post-election landscape, characterized by a mix of cautious optimism and prevailing skepticism.

Australia data - Wage Price Index for Q3 2024:

+0.8% q/q for the third consecutive quarter

• expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%
• Both the private sector and the public sector rose 0.8%, seasonally adjusted, for the quarter.

+3.5% y/y, lowest annual rise for the series since December quarter 2022 and followed four consecutive quarters of annual wage growth equal to or above 4%.

• expected +3.6%, prior +4.1%

---

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes the Wage Price Index (WPI) quarterly, measuring changes in the price of labor, unaffected by shifts in workforce composition, hours worked, or employee characteristics.

The ABS provides detailed WPI data, including breakdowns by industry and sector, offering insights into wage trends across Australia's economy.

With its recent launch, Xlence is quickly positioning itself as a promising option in the online trading world. This new platform emphasizes transparency, education, and accessibility, aiming to make trading a simpler and more empowering experience for users.

In a recent announcement, Xlence laid out its mission to provide traders with a supportive and versatile environment, underpinned by advanced technology and a diverse selection of trading instruments. This approach shows a clear focus on catering to both experienced traders and newcomers, offering tools, resources, and tailored support.

A Wide Array of Trading Options to Suit All Investors

One of the company’s standout features is its broad range of trading options, which includes Forex, metals, indices, commodities, futures, and shares. With this variety, Xlence caters to traders looking to diversify their portfolios and explore different strategies, allowing them to adapt their trades according to shifting market conditions.

To support this flexibility, Xlence offers four unique account types—Essential, Prime, Deluxe, and Ultimate—each designed to suit different trading styles and levels of expertise. Through this segmentation, Xlence ensures that all traders, from beginners to seasoned investors, can access features aligned with their goals, trading preferences, and risk tolerance.

The platform also highlights its low spreads, flexible leverage, and fast trade execution, all critical features that give traders an edge in fast-paced markets. Xlence appears focused on streamlining the user experience, particularly when it comes to managing funds.

With a seamless approach to deposits and withdrawals, Xlence aims to make financial transactions straightforward, reflecting the platform’s commitment to providing a hassle-free and user-centered trading experience.

Emphasizing Education and Support for a Global Clientele

The broker’s emphasis on education and support reflects a strong understanding of what traders need to succeed. The platform offers a comprehensive suite of educational resources, designed to benefit both new and experienced traders.

These resources range from beginner-friendly tutorials to advanced insights into market trends and trading techniques. By providing traders with access to these learning tools, Xlence shows it understands that successful trading requires a continuous process of learning and skill development.

Beyond education, Xlence also offers extensive support to its users, showing a notable commitment to accessibility for traders worldwide. With customer service available in over 15 languages, the platform is well-prepared to assist a diverse client base.

This multilingual support underscores the broker’s global perspective, ensuring that traders from various backgrounds can find guidance in their preferred language, which can be especially valuable in navigating complex trading environments. The approach indicates Xlence’s awareness of the varied needs of its clients and highlights its focus on creating a trading environment where users feel valued and supported.

In a highly competitive online trading market, Xlence’s balanced approach to technology, user education, and support sets it apart. The platform’s attention to providing versatile trading options, combined with its dedication to education and global support, suggests that Xlence is well-positioned to become a trusted name in the industry.

0945 GMT / 0445 US Eastern time - Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann is a panellist on the Female Central Bankers panel organised by BNP Paribas’ Global Markets

*

The Bank of England cut last week

• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 7 Nov: FOMC/BOE cuts by 25 basis points

Expectations are for slower cuts ahead:

• More gradual Bank of England rate cuts = support for GBP

At 10 am Sydney time on Thursday, November 14, 2024,

• Panel Participation by RBA Governor Michele Bullock, at the ASIC Annual Forum, Sydney
• that's 2300 GMT, 1800 US Eastern time on Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Perhaps we'll hear something on wages data from earlier today:

• Australia data - Wage Price Index for Q3 2024: +0.8% q/q (expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%)

But, probably not:

• Australia - "Wage inflation is moderating as expected"

The RBA next meet on December 9 and 10 and no change to the cash rate is widely expected.

Later today, Wednesday, 13 November, we get the US consumer inflation data for October 2024

• due at 1330 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time

Previews posted already:

• US CPI to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for 0.2% MoM

• US CPI data due Wednesday - possible upside surprise.
• US inflation data this week expected to show core CPI moving sideways - risk ahead higher

OK, what to expect. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.

Taking a look at the range of expectations compared to the median consensus (the 'expected' in the screenshot above) for the key data points:

CPI Headline y/y, expected 2.6% with the range showing:

• 2.3% - 2.7%

CPI Headline m/m expected 0.2% with the range showing:

• 0.1 to 0.3%

CPI excluding food and energy (the core rate of inflation) y/y expected 3.3% with the range showing:

• 3.2 - 3.4%

CPI excluding food and energy (the core rate of inflation) m/m expected 0.3% with the range showing:

• 0.2 to 0.4%

***

Why is knowledge of such ranges important?

Data results that fall outside of market low and high expectations tend to move markets more significantly for several reasons:

• Surprise Factor: Markets often price in expectations based on forecasts and previous trends. When data significantly deviates from these expectations, it creates a surprise effect. This can lead to rapid revaluation of assets as investors and traders reassess their positions based on the new information.

• Psychological Impact: Investors and traders are influenced by psychological factors. Extreme data points can evoke strong emotional reactions, leading to overreactions in the market. This can amplify market movements, especially in the short term.

• Risk Reassessment: Unexpected data can lead to a reassessment of risk. If data significantly underperforms or outperforms expectations, it can change the perceived risk of certain investments. For instance, better-than-expected economic data may reduce the perceived risk of investing in equities, leading to a market rally.

• Triggering of Automated Trading: In today’s markets, a significant portion of trading is done by algorithms. These automated systems often have pre-set conditions or thresholds that, when triggered by unexpected data, can lead to large-scale buying or selling.

• Impact on Monetary and Fiscal Policies: Data that is significantly off from expectations can influence the policies of central banks and governments. For example, in the case of the inflation data due today, weaker than expected will fuel speculation of nearer and larger Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts. A stronger (i.e. higher) CPI report will diminish such expectations. the December meeting is in focus right now.

• Liquidity and Market Depth: In some cases, extreme data points can affect market liquidity. If the data is unexpected enough, it might lead to a temporary imbalance in buyers and sellers, causing larger market moves until a new equilibrium is found.

• Chain Reactions and Correlations: Financial markets are interconnected. A significant move in one market or asset class due to unexpected data can lead to correlated moves in other markets, amplifying the overall market impact.

We had Fed speakers on Tuesday US time, Kashkari watered down the prospect of a December rate cut ... didn;t rule it out but he sounds shaky:

• Fed's Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I'm optimistic that will continue
• Fed's Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolves
• Fed's Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook

The agenda ahead includes another three. The times below are GMT/US Eastern time format:

• 1435/0935 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks before hybrid "Energy and the Economy: Meeting Rising Energy Demand" Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City
• 1800/1300 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks before an Economic Club of Memphis luncheon
• 1830/1330 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid gives luncheon keynote before hybrid "Energy and the Economy: Meeting Rising Energy Demand" Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City

• Fed speakers on energy, the economy, and maybe policy due on Wednesday
• US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they're crucial to know)
• AUD traders heads up - Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock speaks Thursday
• The argument for a near-term Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut remains very thin
• Japan's Seven & i Holdings is considering a management buyout
• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann speaking Wednesday
• Australia - "Wage inflation is moderating as expected"
• PBoC promised stronger damping to support CNY, and that's what are seeing
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1991 (vs. estimate at 7.2305)
• Dogecoin catches a bid on Trump's new DOGE department headed by Musk
• Trump names Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy to lead Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)
• Australia data - Wage Price Index for Q3 2024: +0.8% q/q (expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%)
• Japan PPI (October) +0.2% m/m (expected 0%) and +3.4% y/y (expected +3.0%)
• Barclays on oil - current market dynamics relatively stable, doesn't foresee major shifts
• ECB Interest Rate Forecast: Deutsche Bank's 7 reasons for projecting a lower terminal rate
• BoA expect a 4% EPS benefit for S&P 500 equites from Trump corporate tax cuts
• US CPI data due Wednesday - possible upside surprise.
• Green shoots in China? Excavator sales grew 15% in October
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 12 Nov: Bitcoin hits $90K. Stocks fall. USD moves higher.
• NY Fed Perli says there's been more friction in money mkts lately, repo rate rise orderly
• Amazon’s Bezos sells US$1.25bn of shares
• US indices close lower on the day. No new records today.
• Bitcoin trades above $90,000 for the first time. It broke the $80,000 level on Monday
• Trade ideas thread - Wednesday, 13 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Small ranges prevailed during Asia time with many traders content to wait until the US inflation data later.

• US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they're crucial to know)

Data events during the session here were lower-tier. We had PPI data from Japan coming in higher than expected. Renewed yen weakness pushed up import costs for some goods. At the margin, an argument can be made that the data was supportive of a nearer-term Bank of Japan rate hike. Against this is, of course, is the new political pressure on the Bank to not hike until wages are seen rising at the next round of wage negotiations in (Japan's) spring. Many months away. The Bank of Japan next meet on December 18 - 19.

USD/JPY moved a little higher, but didn’t get to 155.00. As I post its around the middle of its session range circa 154.80.

Data from Australia showed wage growth moderating a little. This is not sufficient for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its cash rate any time soon. The next meeting is December 9 – 10, and then in February (17 – 18).

Earlier this week People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized that the Bank will not let the yuan plummet without a fight:

• Will step up countercyclical adjustment
• Should resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot

Today the Bank set the USD/CNY reference rate more than 300 points lower than model estimates (ie a stronger yuan). The Bank delivered on its word to support the yuan. Offshore yuan has jumped (lower USD/CNH).

Bitcoin sat near US$88K.

Broader markets are still largely clinging on to the post-election sentiment this week. However, today will add something different to the mix as we will have the US CPI report in focus. While inflation numbers haven't been too important in recent months, it is one that could still impact trading sentiment. That especially if the disinflation process meets a couple of bumps along the way.

And looking at the expectations for today's report, that might shape up to be the case at least for the October estimates.

Core monthly inflation is expected to nudge up by ~0.30% while headline monthly inflation is expected to nudge up by ~0.21%. Meanwhile, core annual inflation is expected to hold at 3.3% - similar to September. As for headline annual inflation, it is expected to come in a little higher this time at 2.6%.

According to Goldman Sachs, we should be seeing less disinflationary pressures from previously softer components such as airfares and used cars prices. Their estimates show the former increasing by 1.0% this month with the latter up 2.5%. So, that's one part of the argument.

At the balance, the report today should not provide a major reaction if within estimates. I reckon the balance of risks at this point is favouring an outsized reaction on an upside surprise, as compared to a downside miss.

Fed funds futures are showing ~63% odds of a 25 bps rate cut for December and that has been toned down since last week. If there is any upside surprise, the scope for a materially bigger shift in odds there is much wider as compared to a downside miss. So, that's the key consideration now.

Here's Goldman Sachs' playbook in terms of the S&P 500 reaction:

European trading will be a bit of a snoozer as such with a lack of headlines. But perhaps we might get some interesting market moves to talk about in the run up to the US CPI report. USD/JPY is now inching just above 155.00 for the first time since end July while EUR/USD is looking heavy near the April low of 1.0601. Those will be two of the more interesting charts in play currently.

Elsewhere, US futures are pointing lower with gold back up slightly just above $2,600 and Bitcoin is down to below $87,000 after briefly brushing up against the $90,000 mark overnight. So, there are some mixed moves in there for the time being.

In terms of data releases, there's just the US MBA mortgage applications at 1200 GMT. With rates having shot higher post-election, that is likely to keep sentiment in a more dour spot after last week's report here.

As for euro area releases, there's nothing on the agenda for today.

Welcome to the US CPI Day! Inflation is back at the top of market's focus after the Fed's 50 bps cut in September, the acceleration in the US data and Trump's victory.

If we look at the markets, there's been already some pre-positioning/hedging into a potentially higher than expected CPI print, so there's some risk of a "sell the fact" reaction. Of course, a bigger than expected upside surprise would be much more straightforward.

The market is currently pricing a 63% chance of a 25 bps cut in December and basically two more 25 bps rate cuts in 2025 which is already much less than the four projected by the Fed in September.

13:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US October CPI

The US CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.6% vs. 2.4% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.2% prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.3% vs. 3.3% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.3% prior.

At the latest Fed’s decision, Fed Chair Powell said that they expect bumps on inflation and that one or two bad data months on inflation won’t change the process. This keeps the 25 bps cut in December in place even if we get higher inflation readings.

The market though is forward-looking, and the rise in Treasury yields showed that the market sees risks to the inflation outlook. Moreover, the red sweep could increase those fears if the progress on inflation stalls, or worse, reverses.

Therefore, higher inflation readings might not change the near-term monetary policy outlook, but I personally see it changing the market’s outlook and eventually the Fed’s one.

Central bank speakers:

• 09:45 GMT - BoE's Mann (hawk - voter)
• 14:35 GMT/09:35 ET - Fed's Logan (neutral - non voter)
• 18:00 GMT/13:00 ET - Fed's Musalem (neutral - non voter)
• 18:30 GMT/13:30 ET - Fed's Schmid (hawk - non voter)

• Eurostoxx -0.3%
• Germany DAX -0.2%
• France CAC 40 -0.1%
• UK FTSE +0.1%
• Spain IBEX flat
• Italy FTSE MIB -0.2%

There's some push and pull in the opening stages but the changes here don't take away from the heavy selling yesterday. As mentioned since last week, the outlook for European indices remain challenging considering the more dour economic outlook in the region. So far today, US futures are also a little more subdued with S&P 500 futures down 0.3%.

Washington, D.C. – The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB), the Donald W. Reynolds Journalism Institute (RJI) and the National Association of Chain Drug Stores (NACDS) today announced the launch of an online toolkit to help local journalists craft COVID-19 vaccine education messages that best resonate with their audiences. The toolkit is designed to provide journalists with information and resources to create news reports, public service announcements and other messages related to vaccine safety, effectiveness and distribution.

WASHINGTON, DC -- The National Association of Broadcasters Leadership Foundation announced today the finalists for the 2021 Celebration of Service to America Awards, recognizing outstanding community service by local broadcasters. One winner from each category will be announced during the Celebration of Service to America Awards program.