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2 found dead in overturned car in Brownsburg creek

Two people have been confirmed dead after they were found in an overturned vehicle in a creek in Brownsburg on Tuesday.

       




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Dead can 'exhale' when moved. Here's how mortuary workers protect themselves.

"We've always disinfected oral, nasal cavities that would be exposed to that exhale procedure," said Eric Bell, a funeral director in Pittsboro, Ind.

       




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'I can't even give them a hug': A look inside a small-town Indiana funeral home

"I love from afar, do the best I can from afar but nothing equals a hug," said Eric Ball, funeral director, owner of David A. Hall Mortuary.

       




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Could Germany afford Irish, Greek and Portuguese default?

The Western world remains where it has been for some time, delicately poised between anaemic recovery and a shock that could tip us back into economic contraction.

Perhaps the most conspicuous manifestation of the instability is that investors can't make up their minds whether the greater risk comes from surging inflation that stems largely from China's irrepressible growth or the deflationary impact of the unsustainable burden of debt on peripheral and not-so-peripheral eurozone (and other) economies.

And whence do investors flee when it all looks scary and uncertain, especially when there's a heightened probability of specie debasement - to gold, of course.

Unsurprisingly, with the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schauble, implying that a writedown of Greece's sovereign obligations is an option, and with consumer inflation in China hitting 5.4% in March, there has been a flight to the putative safety of precious metal: the gold price hit a new record of $1,480.50 per ounce for June delivery yesterday and could well break through $1,500 within days (say the analysts). Silver is hitting 30-year highs.

In a way, if a sovereign borrower were to turn €100bn of debts (for example) into an obligation to repay 70bn euros, that would be a form of inflation - it has the same economic impact, a degradation of value, for the lender. But it is a localised inflation; only the specific creditors suffer directly (though there may be all sorts of spillover damage for others).

And only this morning there was another blow to the perceived value of a chunk of euro-denominated sovereign obligations. Moody's has downgraded Irish government debt to one level above junk - which is the equivalent of a bookmaker lengthening the odds the on that country's ability to avoid controlled or uncontrolled default.

Some would say that the Irish government has made a start in writing down debt, with the disclosure by the Irish finance minister Michael Noonan yesterday that he would want to impose up to 6bn euros of losses on holders of so-called subordinated loans to Irish banks.

But I suppose the big story in the eurozone, following the decision by the European Central Bank to raise interest rates, is that the region's excessive government and bank debts are more likely to be cut down to manageable size by a restructuring - writedowns of the amount owed - than by generalised inflation that erodes the real value of the principal.

The decision of the ECB to raise rates has to be seen as a policy decision that - in a worst case - a sovereign default by an Ireland, or Greece or Portugal would be less harmful than endemic inflation.

But is that right? How much damage would be wreaked if Greece or Ireland or Portugal attempted to reduce the nominal amount they owe to levels they felt they could afford?

Let's push to one side the reputational and economic costs to those countries - which are quite big things to ignore, by the way - and simply look at the damage to external creditors from a debt write down.

And I am also going to ignore the difference between a planned, consensual reduction in sums owed - a restructuring that takes place with the blessing of the rest of the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund - and a unilateral declaration of de facto bankruptcy by a Greece, Ireland or Portugal (although the shock value of the latter could have much graver consequences for the health of the financial system).

So the first question is how much of the impaired debt is held by institutions and investors that could not afford to take the losses.

Now I hope it isn't naive to assume that pension funds, insurance companies, hedge funds and central banks that hold Greek, or Irish or Portuguese debt can cope with losses generated by a debt restructuring.

The reason for mild optimism in that sense is that those who finance investments made by pension funds and insurers - that's you and me by the way - can't get their money out quickly or easily. We simply have to grin and bear the losses to the value of our savings, when the stewards of our savings make lousy investment decisions.

As for hedge funds, when they make bad bets, they can suffer devastating withdrawals of finance by their investors, as and when the returns generated swing from positive to negative. But so long as those hedge funds haven't borrowed too much, so long as they are not too leveraged - and most aren't these days - the impact on the financial system shouldn't be significant.

Finally, if the European Central Bank - for example - ends up incurring big losses on its substantial holdings of Greek, Portuguese and Irish debt, it can always be recapitalised by solvent eurozone nations, notably by Germany and France.

However this is to ignore the node of fragility in the financial system, the faultline - which is the banking industry.

In the financial system's network of interconnecting assets and liabilities, it is the banks as a cluster that always have the potential to amplify the impact of debt writedowns, in a way that can wreak wider havoc.

That's built into their main function, as maturity transformers. Since banks' creditors can always demand their money back at whim, but banks can't retrieve their loans from their creditors (homeowners, businesses, governments), bank losses above the norm can be painful both for banks and for the rest of us.

Any event that undermines confidence in the safety of money lent to banks, will - in a best case - make it more difficult for a bank to borrow and lend, and will, in the worst case, tip the bank into insolvency.


Which, of course, is what we saw on a global systemic scale from the summer of 2007 to the end of 2008. That's when creditors to banks became increasingly anxious about potential losses faced by banks from a great range of loans and investments, starting with US sub-prime.

So what we need to know is whether the banking system could afford losses generated by Greek, Irish and Portuguese defaults.

And to assess this, we need to know how much overseas banks have lent to the governments of these countries and also - probably - to the banks of these countries, in that recent painful experience has told us that bank liabilities become sovereign liabilities, when the going gets tough.

According to the latest published analysis by the Bank for International Settlements (the central bankers'central bank), the total exposure of overseas banks to the governments and banks of Greece, Portugal and Ireland is "just" $362.2bn, or £224bn,

Now let's make the heroic guess that a rational writedown of this debt to a sustainable level would see a third of it written off - which would generate $121bn (£75bn) of losses for banks outside the countries concerned.

If those loans were spread relatively evenly between banks around the world, losses on that scale would be a headache, but nothing worse.

But this tainted cookie doesn't crumble quite like that. Just under a third of the relevant exposure to public sector and banks of the three debt-challenged states, some $118bn, sits on the balance sheets of German banks, according to the BIS.

For all the formidable strength of the German economy, the balance sheets of Germany's banks are by no means the strongest in the world. German banks would not be able to shrug off $39bn or £24bn of potential losses on Portuguese, Irish and Greek loans as a matter of little consequence.

This suggests that it is in the German national interest to help Portugal, Ireland and Greece avoid default.

If you are a Greek, Portuguese or Irish citizen this might bring on something of a wry smile - because you would probably be aware that the more punitive of the bailout terms imposed by the eurozone on these countries (or about to be imposed in Portugal's case) is the expression of a German desire to spank reckless borrowers.

But as I have mentioned here before, reckless lending can be the moral (or immoral) equivalent of reckless borrowing. And German banks were not models of Lutheran prudence in that regard.

If punitive bailout terms make it more likely that Ireland, Greece or Portugal will eventually default, you might wonder whether there has been an element of masochism in the German government's negotiating position.




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PPI and banks: Must pay, will pay?

You might have noticed that my mind (and body) have been away from the day job. But I am so gobsmacked by the comprehensive defeat of the banks in the PPI case that my fingers felt compelled to tap on smartphone keys.

What probably matters most is that the judge has ruled against the banks on all important issues.

And two really mattered: first that the Financial Services Authority's principles governing the behaviour of financial firms are a proper basis for compensation awards; and that FSA rules based on those principles are necessary but not sufficient for judging whether financial firms engaged in mis-selling.

Frankly if the banks had succeeded in proving otherwise, it would have been utterly disastrous for the whole system of consumer protection in the UK, both the existing system and the new one being erected by the government.

As it turns out, it is the implications of today's ruling for the banks that are serious.

Unless they appeal (and I will come back to that question) they face having to make compensation payments of around £4bn to around two and a half million people (around a quarter of all PPI policies were allegedly mis-sold).

The damage is greatest for the two banks in which we as taxpayers have big stakes, Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland (which is just dandy for all of us) - largely because they have the largest shares of the retail banking market.

Lloyds faces the biggest bill: both it and RBS look as though they will have to pay compensation in excess of £1bn each.

That Lloyds and RBS appear to have done the most mis-selling in this instance will be seen by some as further evidence that their particularly powerful positions in retail banking is bad for the welfare of consumers - it will be taken as strengthening the argument of the Independent Commission on Banking that reinforcing competition is a priority (see my recent posts Banking Commission wants firewall around retail banking and Banking Commission: Retail banking must be ring-fenced).

The tab for Barclays and HSBC will also be pretty steep - some hundreds of millions of pounds each.

Given that few lawyers in my acquaintance rated the banks' chances of winning the case terribly highly, it is slightly odd that they used the courts to minimise or delay making restitution - especially at a time when they are not exactly the most popular institutions in the UK.

It is even more curious that they have fought and fought to limit their liability in the light of the two main examples of mis-selling identified by the FSA.

First there were all those refusals to make payouts under the loan insurance plans to those who had a pre-existing medical condition - when it is clear that relevant customers had no idea that pre-existing medical conditions were grounds for non-payment.

Second, it is a logical absurdity that the policies should have been sold by the banks to the self-employed, given that is impossible for a self-employed person to be made redundant.

So what next? Well the banks could make those two and a half million victims of mis-selling wait another couple of years to be made whole by appealing to the Supreme Court.

Or they could take the view that the prospects of winning in any court are too slim to outweigh the potential for further damage to their respective public images from being seen to defy an unambiguous legal judgement that they let down millions of their customers.

Unless of course they regard their reputations as so impaired that there's nothing left to lose from prevarication.




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Lloyds: Back in the red?

It's the first results tomorrow for Lloyds new chief executive, Antonio Horta-Orsorio - and I wouldn't be at all surprised if, in the time-honoured fashion of new brooms, he announces substantial losses on ventures that had already gone a bit wrong for his predecessors.

In particular, I would expect him to announce further significant writedowns on £20bn odd of outstanding loans to the troubled Irish economy - after last year's impairment charge of £4.3bn on Irish lending.

Also, he may well make a provision of well over £1bn to cover potential payouts to thousands of purchasers of PPI loan insurance.

This would follow last month's comprehensive defeat in the courts of Britain's leading banks, which had challenged the decision of the regulator, the Financial Services Authority, that they should pay compensation for mis-selling of the credit insurance.

If Lloyds were to incur such a big loss on its past sales of PPI policies, that of course would be seen as a very good thing by those who believe that Lloyds mis-sold to them - because it would imply that Lloyds would be ceasing its legal battle (with the other banks) to avoid making comprehensive restitution.

Anyway, the Irish and PPI debits together could well run to many billions of pounds - which would be enough to put Lloyds into losses overall for the first three months of the year, and possibly for the first six months too.

That would be embarrassing for Lloyds, though not for Mr Horta-Orsorio, who can't be held responsible for decisions made before his time.

Remember that Lloyds made a big thing last year of being back in the black, following its humungous losses in 2008 and 2009 of £6.7bn and £6.3bn respectively.

Anyway, if I'm right, and if Lloyds takes a chunky hit from Ireland and PPI, it would represent a setback to the recovery of a bank 41% owned by taxpayers - but it wouldn't impair the health of the bank in a fundamental way.

That said, it would pose a very particular question for the non-executives of Lloyds - which is why they chose to award a £1.45m bonus to the bank's retiring chief executive, Eric Daniels, earlier this year.




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The big PPI lesson for banks

The big lesson for the banks from today's decision by the British Bankers Association not to appeal against the high court ruling on Payment Protection Insurance is - funnily enough - very similar to the big lesson from the Great Crash of 2007-8.

Which is that if a bank runs its business on the basis of what the regulators' detailed rules allow - rather than on the basis of what is commercially sustainable and sensible - public humiliation and enormous losses are likely to be the bitter harvest.

In the case of PPI, much of what the banks have now acknowledged to be mis-selling seemed consistent with rules laid down by the regulator, the Financial Services Authority, in its handbook and its source book on the selling of insurance.

But the FSA argued that following the letter of these rules was a necessary but not sufficient guarantee that the banks were behaving property. The FSA argued that the big banks should have been more mindful of its over-arching principles, notably the imperative of paying due regard to the interests of customers and treating them fairly.

The banks appear to have been so seduced by the apparently huge profits available from insuring personal loans, mortgages and credit card debt that they pushed the insurance to all manner of unsuitable customers (the self-employed who could never make a claim for being made redundant, or those with pre-existing health conditions, that would invalidate claims, to name just two common examples).

"It is very difficult to justify how we behaved" said one senior banker. "You can't imagine supermarkets treating their customers in the way we treated ours. I know my colleagues think that so long as we followed what was in the FSA's handbook, we shouldn't be blamed. But my view is that we forgot the cardinal rule, which is that we're there to serve customers, not to shove something down their throats which they don't need".

This departure from the very basics of retailing is costing the banks very dearly indeed. Last week Lloyds - the market leader in PPI and the first of the big banks to say it would provide comprehensive restitution - said that the settlement would lead to a £3.2bn expense.

Today, Barclays has quantified the compensation and related costs at £1bn. There will be a similar charge for Royal Bank of Scotland. And HSBC has just said it is setting aside £274m to meet these costs.

In total for all the big banks, the costs are heading towards £6bn or so - and that's to ignore the compensation bill for hundreds of smaller firms which joined in the PPI mis-selling frenzy.

Now what's striking is that the PPI debacle shares strong cultural characteristics with the behaviour that took many of the world's banks to the brink of bankruptcy less than three years ago. During the boom years before the crisis of 2007-8, you won't need telling that banks lent and invested recklessly - to subprime borrowers, to commercial property, to each other, through off-balance sheet vehicles, in the form of "structured" products which delivered the illusion of quality (inter alia).

And much of this reckless lending and investing took advantage of the global Basel rules that give the official regulators' view of how much risk the banks were taking - and, as we now know, were catastrophically wrong.

But - many bankers belatedly concede - banks should have known better than to make their judgments on how to lend on the basis of the regulators' rules. They should have done what other commercial businesses do, which was to lend and invest on the basis of what would be sustainable and prudent for the long term.

Gaming or playing the Basel rules, and forgetting commercial common sense, led to disaster. It meant that Royal Bank of Scotland, in the autumn of 2008, looked like a sound bank as measured by the Basel rules, when to all intents and purposes it was bust.

Of course it is reasonable to blame the regulators for framing the rules badly. But many would say that the banks were more at fault for mindlessly running their businesses on the basis of what the rules allowed.

So what's the big lesson of both PPI and the 2007-8 crash? Well, it is probably that banks need to base everything they do on what is good for customers, shareholders and creditors in a fundamental sense - and not on what the rules allow them to do.

PS Apart from the banks, another group of firms - the claims management firms - look set to be burned by the banks' decision to chuck in the towel and pay compensation to 2.75m or so individuals who were mis-sold PPI insurance.

The banks will now set up operations to speedily process claims for compensation. So they would argue that there is no point in their customers using the services of claims management firms, because in doing so those customers would not gain any additional compensation but would have to pay commission to the claims handler.




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What price a Greek haircut?

One of Europe's most influential bankers said to me the other day that he thought it would be a disaster if any of the eurozone's debt-stretched nations imposed a reduction in the value of their respective sovereign borrowings, or - to use the jargon - took a haircut on their debts.

For him, the eurozone approach of muddling through - providing IMF and eurozone loans to those countries that cannot borrow on markets - is the right approach, even if it hasn't actually solved anything for the eurozone in a permanent sense.

It is curious he should take that view, given that the rescues of Greece and Ireland that took place last year are already having to be renegotiated. And the bailout of those countries didn't stop the rot: Portugal is well into the process of obtaining emergency finance from eurozone and IMF.

Wouldn't it be better to cut what Greece - or Portugal or Ireland - owes down to a manageable size, in tandem with the imposed shrinkage of its public sector, to put its public finances back on a basis that is sustainable for the long term?

The markets are saying that's the only way forward. Over the course of a year, the market price of Greek government debt has fallen by more than half, for example. The yield on 10-year Greek government bonds is well over 15%. Which is an unambiguous statement from investors that there is not the faintest chance that they will lend to Greece again, unless and until its debt burden is reduced to a manageable size.

Or to put it another way, markets are presenting a simple choice to eurozone government heads and the IMF: they can continue to lend to Greece for an indefinite period, in the hope that Greece's economic growth will eventually pick up and generate incremental tax revenues, which would allow the Greek government to perhaps start paying down its debts; or they can bite the bullet and put Greece into the equivalent of what the Americans call Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, to restructure and reduce what Greece owes so that it is consistent with the market price of all that debt.

Now as of this instant, option one looks a bit naive, in that what's happened subsequent to the first bailout of Greece a year ago is that its ratio of debt to GDP has been growing in leaps and bounds to more than 150% of GDP (and for more on the heroic challenges faced by Greece, see reports in the next day or two from Stephanie Flanders, who is in Athens).

So you would have expected my influential banker - who knows a thing or two about the markets - to be in favour of what the markets are saying is inevitable. Surely he should be calling for that most humiliating event for any creditor, a formal admission by Greece that it can't pay what it owes, which goes by the moniker of a haircut, or restructuring, or default?

But Mr Big Banker doesn't think that's the right way forward. His reasoning is that he fears a debt restructuring would weaken many of Europe's banks, such that they would be forced to raise new capital - perhaps from their respective governments. And, for reasons that slightly elude me, he sees that as a worse outcome than leaving Greece trapped in an unbreakably vicious cycle of economic decline.

The odd thing, however, is that the official statistics really don't seem to indicate that a haircut on Greek debt would be Armageddon for Europe's banks.

It would be a disaster for Greece's banks, that's certainly true, given that (according to Bank of England figures) a 50% writedown of Greek sovereign debt would wipe out more than 70% of their equity capital. Or to put it another way, they would be bust and would have to be recapitalised.

But, sooner or later, Greece's banks are going to need strengthening in any case. Fixing Greece's public finances won't fix Greece unless its banks are mended too. So any estimate of the costs of rehabilitating that country will include the price of providing new capital to the banks.

The more relevant question, perhaps, is what a Greek haircut would mean for banks outside Greece.

The latest figures from the Bank for International Settlements, published a few days ago, show that at the end of last year banks outside Greece had lent $146bn to Greek banks, companies and the public sector - down from $171bn three months earlier. And, of this, loans to the public sector (largely holdings of Greek government bonds) were $54bn.

To be clear, this doesn't take account of exposure through derivatives, credit commitments or guarantees. So the world's banks probably have a further $100bn exposure to Greece.

The sums at risk therefore look serious though not - on their own - potentially disastrous for the health of the financial system.

Now as luck would have it, the banks most at risk happen to be those of the eurozone's two largest and strongest economies, Germany and France. The exposure of German banks to Greece is $34bn, including perhaps $20bn of loans to the Greek government, while the exposure of French banks is $57bn, of which again around $20bn is probably sovereign lending

Now because of what some would say is the madness of how the global Basel rules - that measure the strength of banks - are applied, there would be a double whammy for eurozone banks if there were a write-off of Greek sovereign debt.

The banks with Greek sovereign exposure would have to reduce their respective stocks of capital by the amount of the loan loss. And they would have to inflate the size of their balance sheets, because the residual exposure to the Greek government would lose its official (and some would say insane) zero risk weighting. So the fall in the capital ratios of banks with exposure to Greece would be magnified in a painful way.

Of the larger listed banks, only one, the Franco-Belgian group Dexia, looks as though it would be seriously hurt by a Greek debt writedown. According to Morgan Stanley, Dexia has 4.9bn euros of exposure to Greek sovereign debt, equivalent to more than half the value of its equity capital. Dexia would be significantly weakened by a 50% Greek haircut.

Next at risk, according to Morgan Stanley, would be Commerzbank of Germany, with €3bn of Greek sovereign debt, equivalent to 15% of its capital. Meanwhile BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole of France, Erste of Austria, KBC of Belgium and Deutsche Bank of Germany all have meaningful though not devastating exposures.

Less visible is the Greek exposure of Germany's state backed landesbanks - which regulators tell me is considerable. But if they were to incur large losses on it, Germany could afford to recapitalise them.

So what is going on? Why are eurozone governments so wary of a restructuring or haircut of Greek sovereign debt, given that banks in the round won't be killed by the consequential hit?

There seem to be three reasons.

First, in Germany, it is apparently politically more acceptable to provide rescue finance to Greece directly than to rescue German banks that foolishly and greedily bought Greek debt for its relatively high yield.

Second, a Greek debt restructuring would be a severe blow to eurozone pride in the strength of the currency union.

Third, a Greek haircut might be the thin end of a large wedge. If it created a precedent for haircuts in Portugal and Ireland, the losses for the eurozone's banks would begin to look serious. But again, if there were just a trio of national debt haircuts, if the rot were to stop with Ireland and Portugal, eurozone governments could afford to shore up and recapitalise their banks.

That said, what the eurozone could not afford - or so regulators fear - would be haircut contagion to the likes of Spain and Italy.

But Spain and Italy are looking in better shape. Spain, for example, is taking steps to strengthen its second tier banks and its banks in general have become less dependent on funding from the European central bank (which is a proxy for their perceived weakness).

So here, I think, will be what will determine whether Greece gets its haircut in the next two or three months: if eurozone governments come to believe that Spain is well past the moment of maximum risk of financial crisis, there will be a bold restructuring of Greek debt.

But, to use that awful footballing expression, if they do go for a Greek debt haircut or writedown, it will be squeaky bum time in government buildings all over Europe.




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HSBC banks on UK

For all HSBC's mutterings that it's fed up with having the UK as its home base - because of the incremental tax it pays here and what it perceives as an anti-bank climate - there is no evidence from today's strategy review that it is growing any cooler on having a big presence in the UK.

In fact, if anything, the opposite is implied by its assessment of where best to allocate its capital and expertise over the coming decade. The UK is categorised by HSBC as a "strategic market", which is HSBC's highest accolade, partly because it has a massive presence in retail banking here and partly because it wants to be "the UK's leading bank for international businesses".

Interestingly, and in spite of the superior growth rates of emerging economies, HSBC expects the UK to still be the sixth largest economy in the world in 2050, only a fraction smaller than Germany, but bigger than Brazil, Mexico and France.

The British economy is expected by HSBC to grow faster than the US, Japan, and France over the coming 40 years - and a bit slower than Germany (but, of course, massively slower than China, India, Brazil, Mexico and Turkey). Some of that British momentum, compared to the eurozone and Japan for example, is presumably due to an expected faster rate of population growth in the UK - which is not universally popular.

But even so, income per capita in the UK in 2050 is predicted to be $49,000, 6.5% below German income per head and almost 20% greater than French per capita income.

For HSBC, the important trends are expected annual growth of world trade of 8.9% in the coming 10 years and the persistence of huge financial imbalances between the saving and exporting nations (China, India, Germany, and so on) and the consuming and borrowing nations (the US and much of Europe).

Interestingly, HSBC expects the UK to be a rare example of a country moving from deficit into surplus, by 2020 (or rather it buys into the analysis of the consultants McKinsey and the World Economic Forum to that effect - although there is a bit of a mystery here, because HSBC attributes the forecast to McKinsey, but it's not in the relevant McKinsey document).

The point, for HSBC, of analysing the world in these terms is that it wants to be the leader in financing those swelling trade flows between emerging economies and developed ones, and also in the related businesses of shipping China's and India's and Taiwan's surplus capital to the US and Europe.

Which means that what it calls Global Banking and Markets (and others call investment banking) together with its Commercial Banking arm will be the focus of future expansion.

That looks rational for one of the world's genuinely global banks. But it is slightly disturbing for the rest of us, perhaps, because the bank is assuming that the leaders of the G20 most powerful economies will fail in their avowed aim of stabilising the global economy by reducing China's funding surplus and America's funding deficit, the imbalances that were a fundamental cause of the great crash of 2007-8.

HSBC's success in that sense seems in part to be predicated on the idea that the global financial economy won't become a much safer place.

Like all sensible businesses, HSBC say it will reallocate capital to where it sees superior growth or where it has substantial market shares. So it will only stay in retail banking in places, like the UK for example, where it is big enough to be a price leader, rather than a follower.

The new chief executive, Stuart Gulliver, recognises that current returns are too low, partly because the bank's running costs are too high. So it plans to reduce annual costs by between $2.5bn and $3.5bn over the next three years - though it hasn't said how.

There is one cost that particularly rankles with HSBC - the special banking levy imposed by the British government. What it finds particularly galling, I am told, is that it pays the levy on uninsured deposits outside the UK, which most would see as a stable form of funding that contributes to the perception of HSBC as being a relatively safe bank.

Given that Treasury said the levy was designed in part to encourage banks to finance themselves in a more prudent way, it is a bit odd that the levy is costing HSBC around £370m this year, almost exactly the same as Royal Bank of Scotland and Barclays, and £110m more than Lloyds, in spite of HSBC's funding arrangements being widely seen to be much more prudent and stable than those of the other UK banks.

It is perhaps understandable therefore that HSBC hopes the Treasury will look again at the structure of the levy. Although - as I've said and elucidated before - HSBC's not-very-veiled threat to leave the UK if the levy isn't reformed doesn't look credible.




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Peston Picks is moving

My blog is dead. Long live the new blog. Or to put it another way, my page - and those of other BBC bloggers - is having a makeover. So if you don't want to read on, and you simply want to read my latest post, click here.

The reason for the change is to bring together more of my output in one place. So on the new page, you'll find many of my TV and radio pieces, and (soon) my tweets.

If I go mad and decide to do other social media, that'll be there too.

Fingers crossed that you like what you see. I can't hope that all of you will love all the changes. And in particular, I am sure some of you will be frustrated that (for cost reasons) there is now a 400 character limit on the comments you can leave.

Please don't let that put you off expressing yourselves. I can't tell you how much I value your opinions and the debate we have.

As for the posts I've written since Picks was launched in January 2007, the best place to find them is here. For future posts, the best URL for me is still bbc.co.uk/robertpeston




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Cavin: Word of Bourdais deal spurs silly season talk

Frenchman reportedly leaving KVSH, kicking off IndyCar's driver movement for 2017

      




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10 things to know about Dancing with the Stars

Before the show, audience members take the stage to dance

       




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Cavin: Josef Newgarden to Penske the right move

Don't blame Josef Newgarden for leaving Ed Carpenter's popular IndyCar Series team, and don't blame powerful Team Penske for signing Newgarden. It's the right thing to do for the employee and his new employer.

       




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Great way to spend holiday cash: '100 Years, 500 Miles' historic Indy 500 book

Coffee table picture book tells the 100-year history of the famous race

       




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Jerry Sneva, 1977 Indy 500 Rookie of the Year died

Jerry Sneva dies at age 69

       




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Avon Schools is closing due to coronavirus concerns. Here's what parents need to know.

After a coronavirus update that a second student was showing symptoms, Avon schools decided to close all buildings ahead of spring break.

      




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Indiana University will move to remote teaching after spring break over coronavirus concerns

Indiana University will move to remote teaching after its scheduled spring break over concerns about the spread of the coronavirus.

      




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MSD Lawrence Township is providing 5 days of breakfasts and lunches for students

The school district provided free grab-and-go breakfasts and lunches for students Monday. It will do it again next Monday (March 23).

      




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Schools are closed in Indiana until at least May 1. What parents need to know.

Gov. Eric Holcomb announced that all Indiana schools are closed until May 1, possibly beyond that.

      




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How Indiana schools make eLearning work

More Indiana schools are using eLearning in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here's some advice to make it a success for students, teachers and parents.

       




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Waving and honking hello: Noblesville teachers have car parade to see students

In less than 24 hours, teachers organized a parade of nearly 40 cars to say hello to students from afar.

      




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With schools closed, day cares step up: What to know about child care as COVID-19 spreads

Indianapolis is partnering with YMCA, At Your School and Early Learning Indiana to provide care for children of first responders at a discounted rate.

      




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An untrue April Fools' Day prank scared students and angered officials

The April Fools' prank is being shared in Indiana and other states across the nation.

      




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Indiana schools are closed for the rest of the semester. What parents need to know

Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick announced Thursday that schools will stay closed for the rest of the academic year.

      




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Stunned by coronavirus, a college town slowly awakens to a surreal new normal

At Indiana University, the invincibility of youth and the freedom of college life are shattered by a school year cut short.

       




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Schools, donors rush to fill 'digital divide' and keep students learning during closures

During coronavirus, Indiana schools turn to donors to fill gaps in access to devices and home internet as state and federal resources lag behind.

       




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Coronavirus took their final milestones. Now, high school seniors are planning next steps

With schools and campuses closed, high school seniors are planning for college just like they are finishing their high school careers: virtually.

       




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Where kids from Central Indiana school districts can get meals for the rest of the year

Governor Holcomb announced schools will be closed for the rest of the school year, but districts are committed to continue providing meals for kids.

       




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Some families, students blocked from 'free internet' offers because of old debt

Some families have said that they were denied free internet access, offered in response to the coronavirus, because of old debts.

       




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Colleges are getting millions to help students in need, but don't know how to spend it.

Indiana colleges and universities are getting millions in federal CARES Act dollars but say they need more guidance on how to spend it.

       




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When we may know more about what school will be like in the fall

An advisory group from across the state is looking at the challenges and possibilities for bringing students back to campus.

       




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As Indiana reopens, parents returning to work need to make decisions about child care

As Indiana prepares to reopen its economy during coronavirus, parents who are returning to work are facing a new challenge about childcare.

       




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Rap videos, virtual running club, bookmobile: Teachers go above and beyond amid pandemic

Join IndyStar and #ThankATeacher during Teacher Appreciation Week. These are some educators that are making the best of a bad situation.

       




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Here's what the fall semester could look like for Indiana's colleges and universities

As colleges look to the fall semester, they're faced with the uncertainty of what it will look like. But plans are underway.

       




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When school resumes in the fall, what will it look like? Here are the possibilities.

The first day of the 2020-2021 school year is just a few months away. Will kids be back in classrooms or continue logging on?

       




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Teacher Appreciation Week: Students, parents, family and coworkers show their appreciation

This Teacher Appreciation Week, IndyStar asked readers to help recognize some of the amazing teachers going above and beyond during these times.

       




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IU student files lawsuit, seeks reimbursement after class moved online due to coronavirus

An Indiana University student is suing the school, looking for a partial reimbursement on tuition and fees paid for the spring semester.

       




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Coronavírus: os sete erros que põem Brasil na rota do 'lockdown', segundo especialistas

Gestores já consideram confinamento obrigatório em algumas regiões do país em que sistemas de saúde chegaram a estado de calamidade; segundo especialistas, Brasil ia bem, mas houve erros.




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Coronavírus: as posturas conflitantes de Elon Musk e Mark Zuckerberg diante da pandemia

Enquanto o fundador do Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg, apoia medidas de isolamento, Elon Musk, da Tesla, está cada vez mais cético.




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Dubrovnik, a cidade medieval planejada para a quarentena

Os ‘lazarettos’ de Dubrovnik são a memória da luta da cidade no combate a doenças infecciosas séculos atrás.




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Coronavírus: os sete tipos de pessoas que inventam e disseminam fake news

Investigamos centenas de histórias enganosas durante a pandemia. Isso nos deu uma ideia sobre quem está por trás da desinformação - e o que os motiva. Aqui estão sete tipos de pessoas que iniciam e espalham falsidades.




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Lockdown pode terminar em 'tiro e morte', diz prefeito de Manaus

Arthur Virgílio Neto chora ao citar agressões a coveiros e mortes, e recorre a Greta Thunberg: 'Terrível seria pirralho governando o país'. Mortes na capital do Amazonas passaram da média histórica de 20 a 30 por dia para o patamar de 120.




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Fila para UTI e falta de testes: os relatos do colapso na saúde que leva o Rio a planejar lockdown

Profissionais de enfermagem relatam falta de equipamentos de proteção, baixas nas equipes e lotação; em ofício, governador Witzel reconhece que esforços contra a covid-19 não foram suficientes e que estuda endurecer confinamento.




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Primeira capital do Brasil em lockdown tem ruas lotadas e trânsito intenso

Epidemiologista diz que um dos maiores obstáculos para a cidade ter índices de isolamento maiores é a vulnerabilidade social da população do Maranhão.




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IndyStar basketball recruiting rankings for Indiana's 2021 class

See which incoming sophomores Kyle Neddenriep thinks are the best in the state.

      




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Where locals land on new basketball prospect rankings for 2019 and 2020

A look at where locals land on new national lists

      




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Why 'aggressive' IU basketball target Anthony Harris says Hoosiers would be a good fit

Victor Oladipo made the move from Team Takeover to IU star. Hoosiers have their sights set on another guard from his AAU team.

      




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Where IU basketball stands in race for blue-blood darling Matthew Hurt

Right now, there's a 1 in 8 chance the Hoosiers land the consensus top-10 talent out of Minnesota. But they're competing with NCAA royalty.

      




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Secret to landing top-30 target Zeke Nnaji could lie in Indiana's music department

Zeke Nnaji, a four-star, top-30 power forward from just outside Minneapolis, is arguably as good a pianist as he is a basketball player.

       




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Insider: What IU basketball is getting in 2019 commit Armaan Franklin

Senior combo guard Armaan Franklin, a standout at Cathedral and a four-star prospect, becomes IU's first commitment in the 2019 class.