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The Twin Crises and the Prospects for Political Sectarianism in Lebanon

LCPS solicited the opinion of key experts to answer one question: “Will the financial crisis, exacerbated further by COVID-19, strengthen or loosen the power of Lebanon’s governing political parties?” 




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Measuring National Power: Is Vladimir Putin’s Russia in Decline?

As Vladimir Putin embarks on another six-year term as Russia’s president, Western pundits and policymakers are left wondering whether his reelection means that Moscow’s muscular policies toward America and other Western powers will continue or even escalate. But what is the reality of Russian power in the Putin era? Is Russia a rising, declining or stagnating power? How does its standing in the global order compare to other nations, including the United States, China and European powers?




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An Opportunity, Missed

The decision to leave the JCPOA is a blunder. The deal has significant flaws, notably a relatively brief duration and a failure to compel Iran to make a complete and correct declaration of all relevant nuclear activities—the bedrock of any effective verification system. Withdrawing from the agreement, however, only compounds those problems, shortening the duration and abandoning mechanisms to investigate and respond to compliance issues.




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The U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism Newsletter: March - May 2018

  • U.S. and Russian experts ponder denuclearization of Korean Peninsula.
  • Graham Allison on changing the odds of nuclear terrorism.
  • William Tobey on insights on UNSCR 1540.
  • Siegfried Hecker calls for revival of U.S.-Russian nuclear cooperation.




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Is Vladimir Putin’s Russia in Decline? We Figured Out How to Measure ‘National Power.’

Where does Russia stand as Vladimir Putin embarks on another six-year term as president? Analysts have been trying to figure out whether Russia has been rising, declining or stagnating since Putin ascended to power in 1999.




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The U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism Newsletter: June - November 2018

  • Graham Allison on likelihood of another 9/11 and need to deny terrorists nuclear weapons.
  • Bunn and Roth on regaining nuclear security momentum.
  • New books on lessons of U.S.-Russian non-proliferation cooperation and on preventing illicit nuclear trade.
  • Study: Congress needs to play a more active role in nuclear security.




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Jihadists from Ex-Soviet Central Asia: Where Are They? Why Did They Radicalize? What Next?

Thousands of radicals from formerly Soviet Central Asia have traveled to fight alongside IS in Syria and Iraq; hundreds more are in Afghanistan. Not counting the fighting in those three war-torn countries, nationals of Central Asia have been responsible for nearly 100 deaths in terrorist attacks outside their home region in the past five years. But many important aspects of the phenomenon need more in-depth study.

This research paper attempts to answer four basic sets of questions: (1) Is Central Asia becoming a new source of violent extremism that transcends borders, and possibly continents? (2) If so, why? What causes nationals of Central Asia to take up arms and participate in political violence? (3) As IS has been all but defeated in Iraq and Syria, what will Central Asian extremists who have thrown in their lot with the terrorist group do next? And (4) do jihadists from Central Asia aspire to acquire and use weapons of mass destruction? If so, how significant a threat do they pose and who would be its likeliest targets?




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    Lessons for Leaders: What Afghanistan Taught Russian and Soviet Strategists

    The following is a selection of military-political lessons gleaned mostly from the recollections of Soviet strategists who were involved in making and executing the fateful decision to send troops to Afghanistan, as well as from writings by some of post-Soviet Russia’s prominent military analysts. Where possible, the author made an effort to relay these strategists’ analysis of the failures and successes of the intervention because he felt that such assessments, based on first-hand experience, are not always given their due in English-language literature on the subject. 




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    Trump Takes Risky Gamble Meeting with Kim and Walking Into North Korea

    President Trump’s trip Sunday to the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea and his historic decision to cross briefly into North Korea was a made-for-TV diplomatic spectacular. But it was also a test of whether personal diplomacy can trump (so to speak) longstanding definitions of a country’s national interests by persuading North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to end his nuclear weapons program.




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    Expert Survey: Is Nuclear Arms Control Dead or Can New Principles Guide It?

    With the historic INF Treaty more than likely to terminate, and the future of New START in doubt, what guiding principles for interstate nuclear arms control can we hope for? Of eight U.S., Russian, European and Chinese experts surveyed by Russia Matters, most agree that bilateral agreements between the world’s two nuclear superpowers still have a role to play in any new arms control regime, but they differed considerably on the nature of that role.




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    How High Is Risk of Nuclear War Between Russia and US?

    Former U.S. Energy Secretary Ernie Moniz and former U.S. Sen. Sam Nunn argue in a new Foreign Affairs article that the threat of nuclear war between Russia and the U.S. is higher now than at any point since the Cuban Missile Crisis.




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    Why Matter Matters: How Technology Characteristics Shape the Strategic Framing of Technologies

    The authors investigate how the executives of the two largest research institutes for photovoltaic technologies — the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in Golden, USA and the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (Fraunhofer ISE) in Freiburg, Germany — have made use of public framing to secure funding and shape the technological development of solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies. The article shows that the executives used four framing dimensions (potential, prospect, performance, and progress) and three framing tactics (conclusion, conditioning, and concession), and that the choice of dimensions and tactics is tightly coupled to the characteristics of the specific technologies pursued by the research institutes.




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    Why the U.S. Withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord is a Mistake

    The authors explain why the Trump administration's reiteration of its intent to finalize U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is a tragic mistake that will weaken us as a nation.




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    How Clean is the U.S. Steel Industry? An International Benchmarking of Energy and CO2 Intensities

    In this report, the authors conduct a benchmarking analysis for energy and CO2 emissions intensity of the steel industry among the largest steel-producing countries.




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    Study Group on Energy Innovation and the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy: Advising Fortune 500 Companies

    This study group will explore the role of the private sector in evolving energy systems, and how corporations might change in a climate constrained world. 




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    U.S. Intervention in Russia-Saudi Impasse Isn't Tenable (Radio)

    Meghan L. O’Sullivan, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s Kennedy School, former National Security Council advisor, and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, discusses the oil market plunge, and the Russia-Saudi relationship. Hosted by Lisa Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney.




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    Transatlantic Dialogue: The Missing Link in Europe’s Post-Covid-19 Green Deal?

    This policy brief emphasizes that the European Green Deal's effectiveness in a post Covid-19 world will require the involvement of strategic partners, especially the US. In the context of a potential US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the consequential vacuum, it will be even more important to engage the US in implementing the GD. In light of divergence between the US and the EU during past climate negotiations (e.g. Kyoto, Copenhagen, and Paris), we suggest a gradual approach to US engagement with GD initiatives and objectives.




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    New Committee to Advise Bacow on Sustainability Goals

    Harvard University has created a Presidential Committee on Sustainability (PCS) to advise President Larry Bacow and the University's leadership on sustainability vision, goals, strategy, and partnerships. The Harvard Gazette spoke with committee chairs Rebecca Henderson, the John and Natty McArthur University Professor; John Holdren, the Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy at Harvard Kennedy School; and Katie Lapp, executive vice president, about why it is so important to act now; the role of the PCS in developing collaborative and innovative projects; and how the campus community can get involved.




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    Oil's Collapse Is a Geopolitical Reset In Disguise

    The world is on the cusp of a geopolitical reset. The global pandemic could well undermine international institutions, reinforce nationalism and spur de-globalization. But far-sighted leadership could also rekindle cooperation, glimmers of which appeared in the G-20’s offer of debt relief for some of the world’s poorest countries, a joint plea from more than 200 former national leaders for a more coordinated pandemic response and an unprecedented multinational pact to arrest the crash in oil markets.  




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    The United States Is Getting Infected With Dictatorship

    The coronavirus pandemic has provided an opening for Donald Trump to attack transparency, voting rights, and accountability.




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    After Social Distancing, a Strange Purgatory Awaits

    Life right now feels very odd. And it will feel odd for months—and even years—to come.




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    The Global Pandemic Has Spawned New Forms of Activism — and They're Flourishing

    The authors have identified nearly 100 distinct methods of nonviolent action that include physical, virtual and hybrid actions.




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    This Virus Is Tough, but History Provides Perspective: The 1968 Pandemic and the Vietnam War

    Nathaniel L. Moir recounts the events of 1968: The war in Vietnam and extensive civil unrest in the United States — and yet another big problem that made life harder. In 1968, the H3N2 pandemic killed more individuals in the United States than the combined total number of American fatalities during both the Vietnam and Korean Wars.




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    How COVID-19 is Testing American Leadership

    Joseph Nye suggests that a new U.S. administration might take a leaf from the success of the post-1945 American presidents that are described in Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump. The United States could launch a massive COVID-19 aid program like the Marshall Plan.




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    The U.S. Is Now Resorting to Plan C

    Americans are not going to wait for sufficient testing. So what happens then? Juliette Kayyem describes "opening up" as a high-stakes version of a coloring book. States can use more and more crayons, but the goal is to avoid going over the edges.




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    What I Wish I Had Said on CNN About Trump's 'Lysol and Sunshine' Speech

    Joel Clement appeared on CNN's Erin Burnett OutFront on April 23, 2020.  In this blog post for the Union of Concerned Scientists, he elaborates on what he wishes he had said during that interview.




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    The Arctic is Transforming… Can We?

    Joel Clement describes how the Arctic is transforming into a warmer, wetter, and less predictable climate state, what the consequences are for the Arctic's indigenous inhabitants, and what measures can be taken to build resilience.




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    Breaking Down the Huawei v. Pentagon Dispute

    If nothing else, the long-running Huawei situation shows the importance of considering the supply chain when it comes to cybersecurity. Huawei being the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker basically banned by the federal government. Bruce Schneier joins Host Tom Temin on Federal Drive.




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    Inside China's controversial mission to reinvent the internet

    On a cool day late last September, half a dozen Chinese engineers walked into a conference room in the heart of Geneva's UN district with a radical idea. They had one hour to persuade delegates from more than 40 countries of their vision: an alternative form of the internet, to replace the technological architecture that has underpinned the web for half a century. 

    Whereas today's internet is owned by everyone and no one, they were in the process of building something very different - a new infrastructure that could put power back in the hands of nation states, instead of individuals.




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    An Interview with Bruce Schneier, Renowned Security Technologist

    Bruce Schneier discusses current security technology concerns with The Politic's Eric Wallach.




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    New Committee to Advise Bacow on Sustainability Goals

    Harvard University has created a Presidential Committee on Sustainability (PCS) to advise President Larry Bacow and the University's leadership on sustainability vision, goals, strategy, and partnerships. The Harvard Gazette spoke with committee chairs Rebecca Henderson, the John and Natty McArthur University Professor; John Holdren, the Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy at Harvard Kennedy School; and Katie Lapp, executive vice president, about why it is so important to act now; the role of the PCS in developing collaborative and innovative projects; and how the campus community can get involved.




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    How COVID-19 is Testing American Leadership

    Joseph Nye suggests that a new U.S. administration might take a leaf from the success of the post-1945 American presidents that are described in Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump. The United States could launch a massive COVID-19 aid program like the Marshall Plan.




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    What I Wish I Had Said on CNN About Trump's 'Lysol and Sunshine' Speech

    Joel Clement appeared on CNN's Erin Burnett OutFront on April 23, 2020.  In this blog post for the Union of Concerned Scientists, he elaborates on what he wishes he had said during that interview.




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    The United States Is Getting Infected With Dictatorship

    The coronavirus pandemic has provided an opening for Donald Trump to attack transparency, voting rights, and accountability.




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    Paradoxes of Professionalism: Rethinking Civil-Military Relations in the United States

    The U.S. military’s prevailing norms of military professionalism are poorly suited to meet today’s civil-military challenges. They undermine the military’s nonpartisan and apolitical ethos, weaken civilian leaders' control of military activity, and undercut the country’s strategic effectiveness in armed conflict.




    is

    After Social Distancing, a Strange Purgatory Awaits

    Life right now feels very odd. And it will feel odd for months—and even years—to come.




    is

    The Global Pandemic Has Spawned New Forms of Activism — and They're Flourishing

    The authors have identified nearly 100 distinct methods of nonviolent action that include physical, virtual and hybrid actions.




    is

    This Virus Is Tough, but History Provides Perspective: The 1968 Pandemic and the Vietnam War

    Nathaniel L. Moir recounts the events of 1968: The war in Vietnam and extensive civil unrest in the United States — and yet another big problem that made life harder. In 1968, the H3N2 pandemic killed more individuals in the United States than the combined total number of American fatalities during both the Vietnam and Korean Wars.




    is

    How COVID-19 is Testing American Leadership

    Joseph Nye suggests that a new U.S. administration might take a leaf from the success of the post-1945 American presidents that are described in Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump. The United States could launch a massive COVID-19 aid program like the Marshall Plan.




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    The U.S. Is Now Resorting to Plan C

    Americans are not going to wait for sufficient testing. So what happens then? Juliette Kayyem describes "opening up" as a high-stakes version of a coloring book. States can use more and more crayons, but the goal is to avoid going over the edges.




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    Romney's Reckless China Rhetoric Risks New Cold War

    Rachel Esplin Odell argues for a wiser and more conservative strategy that resists the temptation to exaggerate the challenge posed by China.




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    Coronavirus Crisis Shows Cracks in the U.S. Governing System, Analysts Say

    China’s autocratic system has performed better in some aspects than America’s democracy so far in responding to the coronavirus pandemic, but it is too early to write off the United States despite its many early missteps, analysts at a China Institute event said.




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    Coronavirus Blame Game ‘a Childish Distraction’

    Since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, China and the US have been engaged in a wide spectrum of competition that has enhanced their rivalry. We have seen debates and arguments about China's one-party system versus the US democratic system, the China-US blame game, and the ideology-centered media war. How will the pandemic reshape China-US relations? Is cooperation still possible to address the unexpected global challenge posed by the virus? Global Times (GT) reporter Wang Wenwen talked to Graham Allison (Allison), professor at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard and author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides' Trap?, on these issues.




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    This Virus Is Tough, but History Provides Perspective: The 1968 Pandemic and the Vietnam War

    Nathaniel L. Moir recounts the events of 1968: The war in Vietnam and extensive civil unrest in the United States — and yet another big problem that made life harder. In 1968, the H3N2 pandemic killed more individuals in the United States than the combined total number of American fatalities during both the Vietnam and Korean Wars.




    is

    How COVID-19 is Testing American Leadership

    Joseph Nye suggests that a new U.S. administration might take a leaf from the success of the post-1945 American presidents that are described in Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump. The United States could launch a massive COVID-19 aid program like the Marshall Plan.




    is

    Oil's Collapse Is a Geopolitical Reset In Disguise

    The world is on the cusp of a geopolitical reset. The global pandemic could well undermine international institutions, reinforce nationalism and spur de-globalization. But far-sighted leadership could also rekindle cooperation, glimmers of which appeared in the G-20’s offer of debt relief for some of the world’s poorest countries, a joint plea from more than 200 former national leaders for a more coordinated pandemic response and an unprecedented multinational pact to arrest the crash in oil markets.  




    is

    Romney's Reckless China Rhetoric Risks New Cold War

    Rachel Esplin Odell argues for a wiser and more conservative strategy that resists the temptation to exaggerate the challenge posed by China.




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    COVID’s Broader Impacts: Risks and Recommendations

    While the world’s health and economy are the clearest victims of COVID-19, the pandemic has impacted nearly every aspect of society – from national security to international relationships. We asked several of our experts to share their thoughts on risks and/or recommendations that policymakers and the public should consider in the coming weeks and months.




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    Breaking Down the Huawei v. Pentagon Dispute

    If nothing else, the long-running Huawei situation shows the importance of considering the supply chain when it comes to cybersecurity. Huawei being the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker basically banned by the federal government. Bruce Schneier joins Host Tom Temin on Federal Drive.




    is

    Inside China's controversial mission to reinvent the internet

    On a cool day late last September, half a dozen Chinese engineers walked into a conference room in the heart of Geneva's UN district with a radical idea. They had one hour to persuade delegates from more than 40 countries of their vision: an alternative form of the internet, to replace the technological architecture that has underpinned the web for half a century. 

    Whereas today's internet is owned by everyone and no one, they were in the process of building something very different - a new infrastructure that could put power back in the hands of nation states, instead of individuals.