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Liberalism’s betrayal of itself—and the way back

Source

The Economist

Release date

14 February 2019

Expert

Hans Kundnani

In the news type

Op-ed

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Regional politics of Kazakhstan in Central Asia

Source

Central Asia Analytical Network

Release date

03 December 2019

Expert

Annette Bohr

In the news type

Op-ed

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It takes two (Las1 HEPN endoribonuclease domains) to cut RNA correctly [RNA]

The ribosome biogenesis factor Las1 is an essential endoribonuclease that is well-conserved across eukaryotes and a newly established member of the higher eukaryotes and prokaryotes nucleotide-binding (HEPN) domain-containing nuclease family. HEPN nucleases participate in diverse RNA cleavage pathways and share a short HEPN nuclease motif (RφXXXH) important for RNA cleavage. Most HEPN nucleases participate in stress-activated RNA cleavage pathways; Las1 plays a fundamental role in processing pre-rRNA. Underscoring the significance of Las1 function in the cell, mutations in the human LAS1L (LAS1-like) gene have been associated with neurological dysfunction. Two juxtaposed HEPN nuclease motifs create Las1's composite nuclease active site, but the roles of the individual HEPN motif residues are poorly defined. Here using a combination of in vivo experiments in Saccharomyces cerevisiae and in vitro assays, we show that both HEPN nuclease motifs are required for Las1 nuclease activity and fidelity. Through in-depth sequence analysis and systematic mutagenesis, we determined the consensus HEPN motif in the Las1 subfamily and uncovered its canonical and specialized elements. Using reconstituted Las1 HEPN-HEPN' chimeras, we defined the molecular requirements for RNA cleavage. Intriguingly, both copies of the Las1 HEPN motif were important for nuclease function, revealing that both HEPN motifs participate in coordinating the RNA within the Las1 active site. We also established that conformational flexibility of the two HEPN domains is important for proper nuclease function. The results of our work reveal critical information about how dual HEPN domains come together to drive Las1-mediated RNA cleavage.




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Chemical roadblocking of DNA transcription for nascent RNA display [RNA]

Site-specific arrest of RNA polymerases (RNAPs) is fundamental to several technologies that assess RNA structure and function. Current in vitro transcription “roadblocking” approaches inhibit transcription elongation by blocking RNAP with a protein bound to the DNA template. One limitation of protein-mediated transcription roadblocking is that it requires inclusion of a protein factor extrinsic to the minimal in vitro transcription reaction. In this work, we developed a chemical approach for halting transcription by Escherichia coli RNAP. We first established a sequence-independent method for site-specific incorporation of chemical lesions into dsDNA templates by sequential PCR and translesion synthesis. We then show that interrupting the transcribed DNA strand with an internal desthiobiotin-triethylene glycol modification or 1,N6-etheno-2'-deoxyadenosine base efficiently and stably halts Escherichia coli RNAP transcription. By encoding an intrinsic stall site within the template DNA, our chemical transcription roadblocking approach enables display of nascent RNA molecules from RNAP in a minimal in vitro transcription reaction.




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A kainate receptor-selective RNA aptamer [Neurobiology]

Kainate and α-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazolepropionic acid (AMPA) receptors are two major, closely related receptor subtypes in the glutamate ion channel family. Excessive activities of these receptors have been implicated in a number of central nervous system diseases. Designing potent and selective antagonists of these receptors, especially of kainate receptors, is useful for developing potential treatment strategies for these neurological diseases. Here, we report on two RNA aptamers designed to individually inhibit kainate and AMPA receptors. To improve the biostability of these aptamers, we also chemically modified these aptamers by substituting their 2'-OH group with 2'-fluorine. These 2'-fluoro aptamers, FB9s-b and FB9s-r, were markedly resistant to RNase-catalyzed degradation, with a half-life of ∼5 days in rat cerebrospinal fluid or serum-containing medium. Furthermore, FB9s-r blocked AMPA receptor activity. Aptamer FB9s-b selectively inhibited GluK1 and GluK2 kainate receptor subunits, and also GluK1/GluK5 and GluK2/GluK5 heteromeric kainate receptors with equal potency. This inhibitory profile makes FB9s-b a powerful template for developing tool molecules and drug candidates for treatment of neurological diseases involving excessive activities of the GluK1 and GluK2 subunits.




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Unified approach to critical-contrast homogenisation with explicit links to time-dispersive media

K. D. Cherednichenko, Yu. Yu. Ershova, A. V. Kiselev and S. N. Naboko
Trans. Moscow Math. Soc. 80 (2020), 251-294.
Abstract, references and article information




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Spectral analysis and representation of solutions of integro-differential equations with fractional exponential kernels

V. V. Vlasov and N. A. Rautian
Trans. Moscow Math. Soc. 80 (2020), 169-188.
Abstract, references and article information






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Finite-dimensional approximations to the Poincaré–Steklov operator for general elliptic boundary value problems in domains with cylindrical and periodic exits to infinity

S. A. Nazarov
Trans. Moscow Math. Soc. 80 (2020), 1-51.
Abstract, references and article information






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Air gap security beaten by turning PC capacitors into speakers

Researchers have poked another small hole in air gapped security by showing how the electronics inside computer power supply units (PSUs) can be turned into covert data transmission devices.




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Police nab InfinityBlack hackers

Five alleged members of hacking group InfinityBlack got some unexpected visitors last week when Polish law enforcement arrested them.





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S2 Ep38: Crashing iPhones, ransomware tales and human chatbots – Naked Security Podcast

Get the latest cybersecurity news, opinion and advice.




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Vote for Naked Security in the European Blogger Awards 2020!

If you enjoy what you read, hear and see from the Naked Security team, please vote for us - it means a lot!



  • award
  • European Security Blogger Awards
  • vote

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Julia Gillard on Breaking Barriers for Women in Politics

6 November 2019

Gitika Bhardwaj

Editor, Communications & Publishing, Chatham House

The Hon Julia Gillard AC

Prime Minister of Australia and Leader of the Australian Labor Party (2010-13)
In a series exploring women in international affairs, Julia Gillard speaks to Gitika Bhardwaj about serving in the highest political office in Australia and why she believes things are now changing for women around the world.

Gillard-4388.jpg

Julia Gillard discusses her career as a woman in politics and why things are now changing for women in Australia and around the world. Photo: Chatham House.

Julia Gillard, you became the first female prime minister in Australian history in 2010, what have been the challenges and opportunities for you as a woman working in politics? Have the obstacles women face in positions of power changed over the years, and if so, how? 

I want to start positive and say I’m a huge advocate for people going into politics – particularly women. I believe there’s no better way of putting your values into action than going into politics but I’m not going to pretend that there’s no gender bit.

There still is a gender bit and I experienced that personally. A disproportionate focus on appearance, a disproportionate focus on family structures – for example the fact that I didn’t have kids – and the gendered insults becoming the go-to weapon when politics got turbulent, which inevitably happens, as governments make decisions that not everybody agrees with.

In terms of politics past and politics present, I think a lot has changed for the positive. There are more women in politics now which means more role models for other women. There’s been more of an attempt to have the system offer flexibilities for work and family life too. In Australian politics, famously, the non-members bar was replaced by a childcare centre, so that’s giving you a sense that there has been progress. We’ve also just hit the stage where our Senate is now 50 per cent men and 50 per cent women.

But I do think that there’s a new toxicity for women that’s been introduced through social media – through the fact that it’s anonymous and people can say anything and the kinds of revolting material many women politicians receive. I think that there’s a new coarseness in our traditional media too which means things will be said about people in politics today, especially women, which would not have been put in the pages of respectable newspapers 10 or 20 years ago.

So, it’s a mixed picture, where there has been major steps forward but there are still some huge issues to resolve.

Following this year’s elections, there are now a record number of female members of parliament in Australia, yet some argue that women are still underrepresented across the major political parties, and over the past 20 years, the country has fallen from 15th in the world to 50th for gender diversity in its parliament.

Given some of the recent experiences of women in Australian politics, do you think the major political parties are doing enough to address gender diversity in their ranks? 

I certainly think on the Labor side of politics important changes have happened in our political party and the benefit of those changes has showed. I’m of that generation of Labor women that fought for an affirmative action target and we had that adopted as a Labor party rule in the early 1990s. It started at 30 per cent, and it’s gone up over time, and the benefit of that now is that the Labor Party is almost at 50-50 per cent men and women, coming off a very low base in the early 1990s where we were at 14 per cent men and women. 

The Conservative side for politics hasn’t embraced a target or quota as of yet. They have done some things, through mentoring and networking and training, but that hasn’t seen as significant a shift in the gender diversity in their ranks. They’ve moved slowly from when they were 13 per cent women to now where they’re in the mid-20 per cent. 

Of course that doesn’t mean the work within Labor is done: we’ve got to keep delivering to the affirmative action target, having women come through for all of the ministries, the Cabinet and for all of the portfolios and to make sure that we’re embracing the full diversity of women too. Australia is a very multicultural society and there is more to do to make sure that women – and men – in the Australian parliament represents that diversity. 

During your premiership, you delivered a famous speech on misogyny and sexism and described there being 'gender wars' in Australian politics. How far has Australia addressed its problems regarding everything from unconscious bias to gender stereotypes? Do you think social attitudes in Australia to women in leadership are changing?

I don’t think these issues are particularly an Australian problem. When I left politics, people kept asking me about my experiences and it became convenient for them to say ‘That’s Australia and its macho culture and Crocodile Dundee and all of that.’ I was always quick to point out, actually, a number of the insults hurled at me were first hurled at Hillary Clinton when she originally put her name forward to be considered as a candidate for US president. So this is not an Australian problem – it’s a global problem. 

I can see progress in Australia though. When I was prime minister, the sort of fashionable analysis by the press was that nothing, in my experience, had anything to do with gender – I was just being treated like every prime minister had always been treated.

Today, there is a very lively debate about sexism in Australian politics and about how women can feel excluded from these structures with various conservative women making complaints about bullying within their political party. So the preparedness to report issues due to the understanding of gender is now much higher and I’m a big believer that you never solve a problem unless you start talking about it so I’m glad we’re talking about it now.

From the implementation of ‘womenomics’ in Japan, to gender-responsive budgeting in Indonesia, countries around the world are making progress towards addressing gender issues, yet, structural and cultural barriers that prevent women’s economic, political and social participation remain.

What are the biggest barriers that women face around the world and do you think enough is being done to address these barriers?

I think so much is context-specific that it’s hard to say, but I would say, in some parts of the world, unequal access to education is the fundamental barrier.

Now that’s not true in the UK or in Australia, where the statistics tell you that disproportionately graduates today are women and not men, but if we look at many of the poorer parts of the world, like in sub-Saharan Africa and other places, there are 260 million children out of school – and the face of a child most likely to miss out is a female face. So there still needs to be a lot more progress on things such as equal access to education around the world. 

In many parts of the developed world, there is actually an assault now on long-held rights around women’s reproduction so I think that is another foundation stone – and then really it comes to a set of issues and barriers around the world of work and full access to every level of work.

Much of this is what we research at the Global Institute for Women’s Leadership because we continue to see workplaces and organizations that have a very traditional view of what merit looks like. It’s a sort of male-defined view of the world and it is one that is not inclusive of women. We are still seeing the unequal sharing of domestic labour which has ramifications for women’s engagement in the world of work and their ability to achieve leadership within it too. 

With a broad brush, I would point to all of this, but the most pressing problems that women continue to face varies from place to place.

Julia Gillard speaking at the House of Representatives on 5 February 2013 in Canberra, Australia. Photo: Getty Images.

Globally, increasing numbers of women are being elected to political office, from the first female president of Slovakia to the first female mayor of Tunis. This comes at a time of record numbers of female ministers in Egypt and Jordan as well as gender-balanced cabinets in 10 countries worldwide – six of which were achieved in 2018 alone.

Do you think women’s rights and gender equality are benefitting from more female representation in politics and how are female voters responding, if at all, to this increase in the number of women holding political office?

I think, even if women didn’t bring new policy perspectives to the world of politics, I would still be an advocate of gender equality in politics because I believe merit is equally distributed between the sexes.

If you see women being represented at less than 50 per cent then that’s got to mean that there are women of merit who didn’t get there – who should’ve gotten there. I think it’s important to make that point otherwise we’re saying ‘Women should only be there if, when they are there, they do this, this and this’. We don’t tend to put that ‘if’ in sentences about men.

But I do think the evidence shows that more women, being involved in politics, does diversify the public policy agenda. That doesn’t mean that a male politician couldn’t focus his career and advocacy on childcare or domestic violence or combating sexual assault or furthering women’s reproductive rights. But I think the evidence shows that there is a lived experience that women bring to politics that enables them to mobilize around a set of issues that are of particular concern to women.

On the role model effect, I think the evidence shows that, if women and girls do see role models, they are more likely to think that that is a pathway open to them. One of the things that does slightly concern me is whether that evidence is now retrospective evidence and whether the prospective evidence is going to be – because of the toxicity of social media – more women thinking about the real-world threats that being in politics presents for them. And so the role modelling effect will work in reverse because it will show how women are treated in politics is more of a negative than a positive.

I certainly hope this doesn’t happen and young women are encouraged to go into politics. That’s where we still have to shine a light on the positive aspects of what working in politics has to offer.

Despite all of the progress we are seeing, women are still faced with gender-based discrimination and gender-based violence, virtually and physically, with 40 per cent of women and girls living in countries which fail to guarantee basic standards of gender equality. What do you think needs to happen to ultimately realize women’s rights and gender equality globally? Are you hopeful this will be achieved in the future?

Yes I’m an optimist overall. People like to quote the great Martin Luther King quote ‘The moral arc of the universe bends towards justice.’ I believe that but I think sometimes the imagery of the arc as if it’s always in a forward movement hides the nitty-gritty struggle that is there beneath. 

Inevitably, at some points, it feels like there’s more of a backlash against women than a forward movement. But, over time, I’m an optimist that the forward movement wins through. 

I do believe we can reach a stage where societies are generating societies where women can live their lives free from the threat of sexual violence or discriminatory treatment based on gender.




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Indonesia and the ASEAN outlook on the Indo-Pacific

8 January 2020 , Volume 96, Number 1

Dewi Fortuna Anwar

Indonesia has taken a leadership role within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in drafting a common outlook on the Indo-Pacific concept. The widening of Indonesia's geostrategic canvas from the Asia–Pacific to the Indo-Pacific is in line with President Joko Widodo's intent to make Indonesia a Global Maritime Fulcrum (GMF). In view of the rivalry between the US and China and the emergence of various Indo-Pacific initiatives from other countries, Indonesia believes that ASEAN must try to maintain its centrality. The draft of Indonesia's perspective for an ASEAN outlook on the Indo-Pacific: towards a peaceful, prosperous, and inclusive region was submitted for considerations by ASEAN, and after 18 months of intensive lobbying by Indonesia the concept was finally adopted at the ASEAN Summit in June 2019. The ASEAN outlook promotes the principles of openness, inclusiveness, transparency, respect for international law and ASEAN centrality in the Indo-Pacific region. It proposes a building-block approach, seeking commonalities between existing regional initiatives in which ASEAN-led mechanisms will act as a fulcrum for both norm-setting and concrete cooperation. Rather than creating a new regional architecture, the East Asia Summit (EAS) is proposed as the platform for advancing the Indo-Pacific discourse and cooperation. Indonesia's ASEAN outlook on the Indo-Pacific marks its renewed foreign policy activism as a middle power and underlines the continuing importance that Indonesia places on ASEAN as the cornerstone of its foreign policy, emphasising ASEAN's centrality as the primary vehicle for managing relations with the major powers in the Indo-Pacific region.




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The Indo-Pacific: Geostrategic Outlook to 2024 - Workshop 4

Invitation Only Research Event

26 November 2019 - 9:30am to 12:00pm

Gateway House, Stevens Street, Colaba

This closed-door roundtable explores possible strategic shifts in the Indo-Pacific between now and 2024.

Focusing on trade security, climate change disruptions and security cooperation, it aims to enhance the understanding of the regional goals of, and strategic relationships between, the key countries active in the region.

The workshop is part of a larger project funded by the Strategic Policy Division of the Australian Department of Defence.

The project includes workshops in the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Japan, India and the Pacific Islands (Tonga).

Anna Aberg

Research Analyst, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme
020 7314 3629




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Bridging an Impossible Gap? Japan-South Korea Cooperation in a Changing Asia

Research Event

10 February 2020 - 12:00pm to 1:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Jennifer Lind, Associate Fellow, US and the Americas Programme and Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House
Chair: Tania Branigan, Leader Writer, The Guardian  

China’s growing power and assertiveness in Asia has led the United States and other liberal partners to move toward an Indo-Pacific strategy. While Japan embraces this, South Korea remains noticeably reticent. Moreover, tensions between the two countries have escalated into crisis with the reinvigoration of historical disputes. This roundtable will explore the root causes of current animosity between Seoul and Tokyo, and the potential ways it can be overcome.

This event is co-hosted with Dartmouth College. 

THIS EVENT IS NOW FULL AND REGISTRATION HAS CLOSED.

Lucy Ridout

Programme Administrator, Asia-Pacific Programme
+44 (0) 207 314 2761




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Asian States Must Rethink Their Approach to Digital Governance

17 January 2020

Vasuki Shastry

Associate Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme
Too many governments in the region are focusing on control and surveillance instead of citizens’ rights.

2020-01-17-KashInt.jpg

Kashmiri students use the internet at a tourist reception centre in Srinagar, after internet facilities were suspended across the region in December 2019. Photo: Getty Images.

Asia’s political class learnt many lessons on digital governance in 2019, not all of them positive.

The prolonged protests in Hong Kong and India, led by disaffected young citizenry and enabled by social media tools, powerfully demonstrated how things could spiral out of control when the virtual and the real streets come together.

Not surprisingly, governments across the region are taking a step back. Instead of placing the citizen at the heart of digital public policy – with privacy, trust, security and inclusion as drivers of digital governance – Asian governments are focusing instead on surveillance and command and control, which contradicts the spirit of a decentralized Internet and undermines citizen’s rights.

Asia’s digital governance is fragmenting from the global norm and morphing into two platforms with remarkably similar characteristics.

One is a China-driven model aptly called the Great Firewall where surveillance of citizens is an explicit objective and any external material deemed to be subversive is kept out. A complementary model has also emerged more recently, which can best be described as China-light, which seeks to emulate the control aspects of the Great Firewall.

There are of course overlaps between emulators of the China model (this list includes Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos) and those pursuing China-light (Singapore, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia). A common thread running through these two approaches, which differ only in intensity and scope, is the belief that the state is best positioned to police social media and protect the rights of citizens.

This was not how it was supposed to be. A decade ago, Asian political leaders spoke about the virtues of an open internet. Such talk has faded, and a narrowing of Asia’s digital space is taking place against a backdrop of an intensifying trade war between America and China, where regional supply chains run the risk of a decoupling into distinct Sino and American spheres, upending Asia’s durable economic model of the past few decades.

Digital fragmentation in the world’s fastest growing region, with five G20 members, will complicate efforts to build global governance and standards.

Asia’s digital landscape

Asian governments, including democratic ones, have developed an unhealthy obsession with what their citizens are up to on a daily basis. Their solution is round-the-clock monitoring in cities and towns, powered by new surveillance technologies.

Name tagging and facial recognition to track movement of citizens has become pervasive across the region, with China emerging as the preferred source of technology, knowledge, and techniques. While India’s Supreme Court has ruled that privacy is a fundamental right, translating this into concrete citizen’s protections will be difficult with the Modi government eager to emulate China’s approach.

Asian governments are also following China in requiring that their citizen’s data be housed within national borders and are rebelling against the established practice of data offshoring.

In the post-Snowden era and amidst increasing cyber risks, there are rational national security reasons for why governments may want to ring-fence customer data within national boundaries. However, Asian governments are paying little or no attention to how companies are using customer data within national boundaries, with widespread abuses going unchecked.

Global standards are still evolving and there is a strong case here for a uniform regional approach, perhaps via ASEAN or APEC, on standards governing customer privacy, payments, data collection and handling. Big tech companies and platforms operate across much of Asia and a regional approach will curb their current instinct of conducting regulatory arbitrage.

There is a genuine problem in Asia, as elsewhere in the world, with the proliferation of fake news and extremism. But instead of addressing the source of this problem, governments are clamping down by generously expanding the definition of fake news (Singapore) or by shutting down the internet altogether (India, Sri Lanka, and China being serial offenders).

As disseminators of news of all stripes, including the fake variant, the big tech firms have a primary responsibility in policing their platforms. However, the regulatory capacity of many Asian governments to monitor this is weak and in crisis situations, governments prefer to shut the pipes altogether.

Digitalization of course is not all about surveillance and holds the promise of driving inclusion. There is considerable hype within Asia on the promise of fintech as an enabler of this inclusion.

Hong Kong and Singapore are licensing new digital banks, India’s UPI (unified payments interface) is reducing friction in domestic payments and China’s BAT companies (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) are disrupting traditional commerce and payments, and seeking to expand in the region.

However, there is an elite focus in many of these initiatives, with the target market being the region’s rising middle class rather than those at the bottom of the income ladder. Making fintech work for all will require micro-initiatives with the support of NGOs, local governments and small enterprises, with the objective of digitalizing microfinance.

Here developing Asia will again benefit from learning from each other and in building regional approaches. India’s Aadhar for example, with appropriate security safeguards, is a model for Asia in terms of building digital identity.

Given differing regional and national objectives, it is difficult to imagine a global accord for digital governance any time soon. However, by signing on to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Transpacific Partnership (CPTPP, the successor to the TPP), Asia has consistently demonstrated its leadership in trade and regional governance.

This is why the region needs to come together to ensure that the promise and potential of digitalization flows evenly and equitably to the region, with the region’s 3.8 billion citizens at the heart, rather than at the margins of sensible public policy.




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Network Power in the Asia-Pacific: Making Sense of the New Regionalism and Opportunities for Cooperation

Research Event

7 February 2020 - 9:45am to 5:30pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

The Asia-Pacific region continues to increase in geopolitical and geoeconomic importance. The rise of China and tensions with the US are affecting bilateral relationships and traditional alliances in the region. Whether seen from the perspective of the Quad – Australia, India, Japan and the US – or the Indo-Pacific concept embraced by a wide range of countries but with no shared consensus on scope and objectives or with ASEAN who insists on the importance of its own centrality, the region is redefining and reconceptualising itself.

With a diverse range of initiatives – including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) – there are a plethora of regional agreements and institutional groupings that add further complexity.

As the Bretton Woods architecture continues to be dominated by Western powers, China is also spearheading parallel governance initiatives such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the Belt and Road Initiative and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a means of enhancing its geopolitical and geoeconomic influence.

This one-day conference will focus on how such networks and alliances have been built, and sustained, in the Asia-Pacific region. In order to understand how new regional initiatives might open up opportunities for new forms of international cooperation, the conference will focus on the themes of cyber-technology and innovation, sustainable development and mitigating the impacts of climate change and new infrastructure initiatives. It will assess whether there is a zero-sum conflict between competing networks and agendas or whether a common approach can be developed.

Lucy Ridout

Programme Administrator, Asia-Pacific Programme
+44 (0) 207 314 2761




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Global Governance: Tackling Economic Nationalism – Japan-UK Partnership Perspectives

Invitation Only Research Event

20 February 2020 - 4:30pm to 21 February 2020 - 4:45pm

Tokyo, Japan

Event participants

Dr Robin Niblett CMG, Director, Chatham House  
Toshiro Mutoh, Honorary Chairman, Daiwa Institute of Research; CEO, Tokyo Organising Committee of the Olympic and Paralympic Game
José Manuel Barroso, Senior Adviser, Chatham House; President of the European Commission (2004-14); Prime Minister of Portugal (2002-04)
Akihiko Tanaka, President, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies

This conference will be the fifth in an annual conference series exploring global geopolitical and geoeconomic trends and their respective influences on Japan and the UK.

This conference will be held in partnership with the Daiwa Institute of Research.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only. 

Lucy Ridout

Programme Administrator, Asia-Pacific Programme
+44 (0) 207 314 2761




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Hiroki Sekine

Visiting Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme

Biography

Hiroki Sekine is visiting fellow with the Asia-Pacific Programme at Chatham House.

He was director of the policy and strategy office for financial operations at JBIC from July 2016 until June 2019 and, most recently, senior advisor to the corporate planning department at the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC).

During this time, Hiroki led an internal taskforce to facilitate a trilateral partnership between the US, Australia and Japan, aiming to enhance infrastructure development under the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy.

He has led project finance deals for power and petrochemical projects in Asia, the Middle East and South America. In 2018, Hiroki was appointed as adjunct professor at Kyoto University.

Hiroki Sekine is based at Chatham House until June 2021, hosted by the Asia-Pacific programme. During his fellowship, Hiroki is undertaking research on infrastructure development in the Asia-Pacific.

Areas of expertise

  • Infrastructure development policy in the Asia-Pacific region
  • Finance (incl. green finance, project finance, and sovereign finance)
  • Public finance policy (incl. multilateral finance agencies, development finance agencies)

Past experience

2019 - present

Senior advisor, Corporate Planning Department, Japan Bank for International Cooperation

2016-19 

Director, Policy and Strategy Office for Financial Operations, Japan Bank for International Cooperation

2015-16 

Advisor, Credit Analysis Department, Japan Bank for International Cooperation

2013-15

Director, Division 2, Corporate Finance Department

2011-13

Director, Power and Water Finance Department, Japan Bank for International Cooperation

2010-11

Advisor, Asia and Oceania Finance Department, Japan Bank for International Cooperation

2008-10

Deputy Director, Division2, Asia and Oceania Finance Department, Japan Bank for International Cooperation

2005

MSc in Finance, London Business School, University of London

1995

B.A. in Economics, University of Tokyo

+44 (0)20 7314 3626




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The Indo-Pacific: Geostrategic Outlook From Now to 2024 - Workshop 5

Invitation Only Research Event

18 February 2020 - 12:00pm to 4:30pm

Langafonua Centre

This roundtable explores possible strategic shifts in the Indo-Pacific between now and 2024. Focusing on trade security, climate change disruptions and security cooperation, it aims to enhance the understanding of the regional goals of, and strategic relationships between, the key countries active in the region.

The workshop is part of a larger project funded by the Strategic Policy Division of the Australian Department of Defence. The project includes workshops in the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Japan, India and the Pacific Islands (Tonga).
 

Anna Aberg

Research Analyst, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme
020 7314 3629




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Chinese Investment and the BRI in Sri Lanka

24 March 2020

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is having profound impacts on recipient countries. This paper examines the benefits and costs of the BRI and its projects to Sri Lanka and the lessons that may improve future BRI projects in Sri Lanka and elsewhere.

Ganeshan Wignaraja

Executive Director, Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute of International Relations and Strategic Studies (LKI)

Dinusha Panditaratne

Non-Resident Fellow and former Executive Director, LKI

Pabasara Kannangara

Research Associate, LKI

Divya Hundlani

Independent Researcher

GettyImages-106945018.jpg

Workers unload cargo from the first vessel to enter the newly built Chinese-funded port in Hambantota, 18 November 2010. Photo: Ishara S. Kodikara/AFP/Getty Images

Summary

  • China’s expansive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has led to greater Chinese outbound investment in Asia, including in Sri Lanka. This investment has recently come under scrutiny, due to intensifying geopolitical rivalries in the Indian Ocean as well as Sri Lanka’s prime location and ports in the region.
  • There are claims that by accepting Chinese outbound investment, Sri Lanka risks being stuck in a ‘debt trap’ and the displacement of its local workers by both legal and illegal Chinese labour. There are also concerns that Chinese investment has led to environmental damage and increased security risks for Sri Lanka and the neighbourhood. Furthermore, there is criticism that institutional weaknesses in Sri Lanka, including a lack of policy planning and transparency, are resulting in nonperforming infrastructure projects funded by Chinese investment.
  • The pattern of Chinese investment in Sri Lanka reveals a nuanced picture of benefits and costs. Similarly, it shows that a matrix of Sri Lankan, Chinese and multilateral policies are required to maximize the benefits and minimize any risks of Chinese investment. Sri Lanka is not in a Chinese debt trap. Its debt to China amounts to about 6 per cent of its GDP. However, Sri Lanka’s generally high debt levels show the country needs to improve its debt management systems. This step would also reduce any risk of a Chinese debt trap in the future.
  • Specific projects have contributed positively to Sri Lanka’s economy. Some have brought greater benefits than others, such as the Colombo International Container Terminal (CICT), which has allowed the Colombo port to grow at a rapid pace. However, imports from China for projects in Sri Lanka have widened the trade deficit between the two countries. In addition, there have been only limited economic spillovers for Sri Lanka, including knowledge transfer in the local labour force.
  • The number of Chinese workers in Sri Lanka is rising but remains a very small percentage of the total labour force. While illegal migration is a concern, there are significantly fewer illegal residents from China than from neighbouring countries. Sri Lanka has relatively strong rules on outward migration but can better regulate inward migration based on labour market demands and economic priorities.
  • The environmental implications of Chinese investment projects in Sri Lanka are mixed. While earlier projects were more harmful, recent projects such as the CICT and Port City in Colombo have adapted to stricter environmental standards. To ensure consistently high environmental standards, Sri Lanka should strengthen its domestic regulations and seek more investments from green-friendly partners.
  • Concerns that China will use ports and other projects for military purposes are, in part, driven by geopolitical anxieties. In response, Sri Lanka has strengthened its naval presence at the Hambantota port. Continual oversight by technical experts is required to guard against security-related concerns and ensure public trust in the projects. Such trust will also grow by improving transparency and by pursuing a long-term, national infrastructure development plan.

Department/project




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Webinar: Director's Briefing – China's Economic Outlook

Corporate Members Event Webinar Partners and Major Corporates

8 April 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Online

Event participants

Dr Yu Jie, Senior Research Fellow on China, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House
James Kynge, Global China Editor, Financial Times; Editor, Tech Scroll Asia
Chair: Dr Robin Niblett, Director and Chief Executive, Chatham House

Only a few months into 2020, the coronavirus pandemic has presented a huge challenge for China’s ruling party against an already tumultuous 12 months of economic slowdown coupled with an increasingly hostile international environment. The crisis looks set to worsen a deteriorating relationship between the US and China as the two countries battle to avoid further economic ramifications. It has also undermined President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party’s domestic political legitimacy and economic growth.

The panellists will examine the wider geopolitical fallout of the coronavirus pandemic and discuss China’s future economic planning. How will the COVID-19 outbreak further strain the US-China relationship? What effect will this have on global trade and vulnerable supply chains at a time when cooperation is needed more than ever? And to what extent is the ruling party addressing growing concerns over job losses, wealth inequality and a lack of social mobility?

This event is only open to Major Corporate Member and Partner organizations and selected giving circles of Chatham House. If you'd like to attend, please RSVP to Linda Bedford.




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Justice for the Rohingya: Lessons from the Khmer Rouge Tribunal

8 April 2020

Sandra Smits

Programme Manager, Asia-Pacific Programme
The Cambodian case study illustrates the challenges of ensuring justice and accountability for the Rohingya in Myanmar.

2020-04-08-Rohingya.jpg

Coast guards escort Rohingya refugees following a boat capsizing accident in Teknaf on 11 February 2020. Photo: Getty Images.

International criminal justice provides a stark reminder that state sovereignty is not an absolute, and that the world’s most heinous crimes should be prosecuted at an international level, particularly where domestic systems lack the capacity or will to hold perpetrators to account. 

The post-Cold War period witnessed a dramatic rise in the number of international tribunals with jurisdiction over war crimes and serious human rights abuses in countries including Cambodia, East Timor, Rwanda, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Yugoslavia. With these processes approaching, or having reached the end of their dockets, many have called for the creation of new tribunals to address more recent conflicts, including the army crackdown in Myanmar in 2017 that resulted in evidence of crimes against humanity against the Rohingya

In January this year, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) imposed emergency provisional measures on Myanmar, instructing it to prevent genocidal violence against its Rohingya minority. But a final judgement is expected to take years and the ICJ has no way of enforcing these interim measures. Myanmar has already responded defiantly to international criticism

Model for justice

Myanmar is not the first country to face scrutiny for such crimes in Southeast Asia. The Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia (ECCC), more commonly known as the Khmer Rouge Tribunal was established in 1997 to prosecute Khmer Rouge leaders for alleged violations of international law and serious crimes perpetrated during the Cambodian genocide. This provides an opportunity to consider whether the Tribunal can act as a ‘hybrid’ model for justice in the region. 

The first lesson that can be taken from the Cambodian context is that the state must have the political will and commitment to pursue accountability. It was indeed the Cambodian government itself, who requested international assistance from the United Nations (UN), to organize a process for holding trials. The initial recommendation of the UN-commissioned Group of Experts was for the trial to be held under UN control, in light of misgivings about Cambodia’s judicial system. Prime Minister Hun Sen rejected this assessment and in prolonged negotiations, continued to spearhead the need for domestic involvement (arguably, in order to circumscribe the search for justice). This eventually resulted in the creation of a hybrid body consisting of parallel international and Cambodian judges and prosecutors with supermajority decision-making rules.   

It is worth noting that the Hun Sen government initially chose to do business with former Khmer Rouge leaders, until it became more advantageous to embrace a policy of putting them on trial. It is possible to infer from this that there will be no impetus for action in Myanmar until it is domestically advantageous to do so. At present, this appetite is clearly lacking, demonstrated by de-facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi shying away from accountability and instead defending the government’s actions before the ICJ.

One unique aspect of the Khmer Rouge Tribunal has been the vast participation by the Cambodian people in witnessing the trials as well as widespread support for the tribunal. This speaks to the pent-up demand in Cambodia for accountability and the importance of local participation. While international moral pressure is clear, external actors cannot simply impose justice for the Rohingya when there is no domestic incentive or support to pursue this. The reality is that the anti-Rohingya campaign has galvanized popular support from the country’s Buddhist majority. What is more, the Rohingya are not even seen as part of Myanmar so there is an additional level of disenfranchisement.

Secondly, the Cambodian Tribunal illustrates the need for safeguards against local political interference. The ECCC was designed as national court with international participation. There was an agreement to act in accordance with international standards of independence and impartiality, but no safeguards in place against serious deficiencies in the Cambodian judicial system. Close alliances between judges and the ruling Cambodian People’s Party, as well as high levels of corruption meant the tribunal effectively gave Hun Sen’s government veto power over the court at key junctures. Despite the guise of a hybrid structure, the Cambodian government ultimately retained the ability to block further prosecutions and prevent witnesses from being called. 

In Myanmar, political interference could be a concern, but given there is no popular support for justice and accountability for crimes committed against the Rohingya, the prospects of a domestic or hybrid process remain unlikely. However, there are still international options. The investigation by the International Criminal Court (ICC) into crimes that may have taken place on the Myanmar–Bangladesh border represents a potential route for justice and accountability. The UN Human Rights Council has also recently established the Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar (IIMM), mandated to collect and preserve evidence, as well as to prepare files for future cases before criminal courts.

Finally, the Cambodian case illustrates the culture of impunity in the region. The ECCC was conceived partly as a showcase for international standards of justice, which would have a ‘contagion effect’ upon the wider Cambodian and regional justice systems. 

Cambodia was notorious for incidents in which well-connected and powerful people flouted the law. This culture of impunity was rooted in the failure of the government to arrest, try and punish the Khmer Rouge leadership. The Tribunal, in holding perpetrators of the worst crimes to account, sought to send a clear signal that lesser violations would not be tolerated in the same way. Arguably, it did not achieve this in practice as Cambodia still has a highly politicized judicial system with high levels of corruption and clear limits to judicial independence

What this illustrates is that the first step towards accountability is strengthening domestic institutions. The United Nation’s Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar has urged domestic authorities to embrace democracy and human rights, highlighting the need to reform the judicial system in order to ensure judicial independence, remove systemic barriers to accountability and build judicial and investigatory capacity in accordance with international standards. Based on this assessment, it is clear that domestic institutions are currently insufficiently independent to pursue accountability.

The ECCC, despite its shortcomings, does stand as proof that crimes against humanity will not go completely unpunished. However, a process does not necessarily equal justice. The region is littered with justice processes that never went anywhere: Indonesia, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. International recourse is also challenging in a region with low ratification of the ICC, and the absence of regional mechanisms like the Inter-American Court of Human Rights, the European Court of Human Rights, and the African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights (although their remit is not mass atrocity prosecutions). 

The Cambodian case study illustrates the challenges of ensuring justice and accountability within the region. The end of impunity is critical to ensure peaceful societies, but a purely legalistic approach will fail unless it is supported by wider measures and safeguards. It is these challenges, that undermine the prospects for ensuring justice for the Rohingya within Myanmar.




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Webinar: Hong Kong: Dissent in the Age of Coronavirus

Research Event

17 April 2020 - 12:00pm to 1:00pm

Event participants

Antony Dapiran, Writer; Lawyer; Author of City on Fire: The Fight for Hong Kong
Chair: Jessie Lau, Journalist; Researcher; Artist; Board Member and Online Editor-in-Chief, NüVoices

Street protests demanding greater autonomy and democratization in Hong Kong upended the city for seven months last year. However, with the outbreak of the coronavirus in China in late January, the protests quickly died out. What does this mean for the city's protest movement?

The speaker will argue that, despite the lack of high-profile street rallies, protest in the city is continuing. It is building on and evolving from last year's protest movement albeit in different forms. At the same time, the Hong Kong authorities, emboldened by a hard line from Beijing, have begun cracking down on activists and protesters in the city as they seek to put a lid on dissent ahead of important Legislative Council elections scheduled for this September.

In this webinar, the speaker will look at the current state of dissent in Hong Kong and prospects for Hong Kong's future.

This event will be held on the record.

Lucy Ridout

Programme Administrator, Asia-Pacific Programme
+44 (0) 207 314 2761




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Webinar: Make or Break: China and the Geopolitical Impacts of COVID-19

Research Event

28 April 2020 - 12:00pm to 12:45pm

Event participants

Yu Jie, Senior Research Fellow on China, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House
Kerry Brown, Associate Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House; Professor of Chinese Studies and Director of Lau China Institute, King’s College London

The COVID-19 crisis has accelerated geopolitical tensions that, in part, have arisen from US-China tensions. At a time when the world needs strong and collective leadership to fight the coronavirus, both countries have been locked in a battle of words characterized by escalating hostility, polarizing narratives, blame and misinformation. Caught in the crossfire, many people of Chinese descent across differing countries have reported an increase in xenophobic attacks.

Middle powers such as the UK and Australia have swerved between recognition of the global collaboration needed to solve this pandemic and calls for China to be held ‘accountable’ for its initial response. Others such, as France and Japan, have been trying to foster international cooperation. 

Against this context, speakers will discuss China’s response to the crisis, including the initial delay and Beijing’s later containment strategies. How do we best assess the delay amidst all the heated rhetoric? What was the response of people within China to the measures? Does COVID-19 mark a point of no return for US-China relations? How might this impact on relations between US allies and China? And what kind of China will emerge from this current crisis?

Lucy Ridout

Programme Administrator, Asia-Pacific Programme
+44 (0) 207 314 2761




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Making Movies Come Alive

Many movie animation techniques are based on mathematics. Characters, background, and motion are all created using software that combines pixels into geometric shapes which are stored and manipulated using the mathematics of computer graphics. Software encodes features that are important to the eye, like position, motion, color, and texture, into each pixel. The software uses vectors, matrices, and polygonal approximations to curved surfaces to determine the shade of each pixel. Each frame in a computer-generated film has over two million pixels and can have over forty million polygons. The tremendous number of calculations involved makes computers necessary, but without mathematics the computers wouldn.t know what to calculate. Said one animator, ". . . it.s all controlled by math . . . all those little X,Y.s, and Z.s that you had in school - oh my gosh, suddenly they all apply." For More Information: Mathematics for Computer Graphics Applications, Michael E. Mortenson, 1999.




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Finding Fake Photos

Actually, they weren.t caught together at all their images were put together with software. The shadows cast by the stars. faces give it away: The sun is coming from two different directions on the same beach! More elaborate digital doctoring is detected with mathematics. Calculus, linear algebra, and statistics are especially useful in determining when a portion of one image has been copied to another or when part of an image has been replaced. Tampering with an image leaves statistical traces in the file. For example, if a person is removed from an image and replaced with part of the background, then two different parts of the resulting file will be identical. The difficulty with exposing this type of alteration is that both the location of the replacement and its size are unknown beforehand. One successful algorithm finds these repetitions by first sorting small regions according to their digital color similarity, and then moving to larger regions that contain similar small ones. The algorithm.s designer, a leading digital forensics expert, admits that image alterers generally stay a step ahead of detectors, but observes that forensic advances have made it much harder for them to escape notice. He adds that to catch fakers, At the end of the day you need math.(1) For More Information: Can Digital Photos be Trusted?, Steve Casimiro, Popular Science, October 2005. _______ 1 It May Look Authentic; Here.s How to Tell It Isn't, Nicholas Wade, The New York Times, January 24, 2006.




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Making Votes Count

The outcome of elections that offer more than two alternatives but with no preference by a majority, is determined more by the voting procedure used than by the votes themselves. Mathematicians have shown that in such elections, illogical results are more likely than not. For example, the majority of this group want to go to a warm place, but the South Pole is the group.s plurality winner. So if these people choose their group.s vacation destination in the same way most elections are conducted, they will all go to the South Pole and six people will be disappointed, if not frostbitten. Elections in which only the top preference of each voter is counted are equivalent to a school choosing its best student based only on the number of A.s earned. The inequity of such a situation has led to the development of other voting methods. In one method, points are assigned to choices, just as they are to grades. Using this procedure, these people will vacation in a warm place a more desirable conclusion for the group. Mathematicians study voting methods in hopes of finding equitable procedures, so that no one is unfairly left out in the cold. For more information: Chaotic Elections: A Mathematician Looks at Voting, Donald Saari




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Bending It Like Bernoulli

The colored "strings" you see represent air flow around the soccer ball, with the dark blue streams behind the ball signifying a low-pressure wake. Computational fluid dynamics and wind tunnel experiments have shown that there is a transition point between smooth and turbulent flow at around 30 mph, which can dramatically change the path of a kick approaching the net as its speed decreases through the transition point. Players taking free-kicks need not be mathematicians to score, but knowing the results obtained from mathematical facts can help players devise better strategies. The behavior of a ball depends on its surface design as well as on how it.s kicked. Topology, algebra, and geometry are all important to determine suitable shapes, and modeling helps determine desirable ones. The researchers studying soccer ball trajectories incorporate into their mathematical models not only the pattern of a new ball, but also details right down to the seams. Recently there was a radical change from the long-used pentagon-hexagon pattern to the adidas +TeamgeistTM. Yet the overall framework for the design process remains the same: to approximate a sphere, within less than two percent, using two-dimensional panels.




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Restoring Genius - Discovering lost works of Archimedes - Part 2

Archimedes was one of the most brilliant people ever, on a par with Einstein and Newton. Yet very little of what he wrote still exists because of the passage of time, and because many copies of his works were erased and the cleaned pages were used again. One of those written-over works (called a palimpsest) has resurfaced, and advanced digital imaging techniques using statistics and linear algebra have revealed his previously unknown discoveries in combinatorics and calculus. This leads to a question that would stump even Archimedes: How much further would mathematics and science have progressed had these discoveries not been erased? One of the most dramatic revelations of Archimedes. work was done using X-ray fluorescence. A painting, forged in the 1940s by one of the book.s former owners, obscured the original text, but X-rays penetrated the painting and highlighted the iron in the ancient ink, revealing a page of Archimedes. treatise The Method of Mechanical Theorems. The entire process of uncovering this and his other ideas is made possible by modern mathematics and physics, which are built on his discoveries and techniques. This completion of a circle of progress is entirely appropriate since one of Archimedes. accomplishments that wasn.t lost is his approximation of pi. For More Information: The Archimedes Codex, Reviel Netz and William Noel, 2007.




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Restoring Genius - Discovering lost works of Archimedes - Part 1

Archimedes was one of the most brilliant people ever, on a par with Einstein and Newton. Yet very little of what he wrote still exists because of the passage of time, and because many copies of his works were erased and the cleaned pages were used again. One of those written-over works (called a palimpsest) has resurfaced, and advanced digital imaging techniques using statistics and linear algebra have revealed his previously unknown discoveries in combinatorics and calculus. This leads to a question that would stump even Archimedes: How much further would mathematics and science have progressed had these discoveries not been erased? One of the most dramatic revelations of Archimedes. work was done using X-ray fluorescence. A painting, forged in the 1940s by one of the book.s former owners, obscured the original text, but X-rays penetrated the painting and highlighted the iron in the ancient ink, revealing a page of Archimedes. treatise The Method of Mechanical Theorems. The entire process of uncovering this and his other ideas is made possible by modern mathematics and physics, which are built on his discoveries and techniques. This completion of a circle of progress is entirely appropriate since one of Archimedes. accomplishments that wasn.t lost is his approximation of pi. For More Information: The Archimedes Codex, Reviel Netz and William Noel, 2007.




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Working It Out. Math solves a mystery about the opening of "A Hard Day's Night."

The music of most hit songs is pretty well known, but sometimes there are mysteries. One question that remained unanswered for over forty years is: What instrumentation and notes make up the opening chord of the Beatles. "A Hard Day.s Night"? Mathematician Jason Brown - a big Beatles fan - recently solved the puzzle using his musical knowledge and discrete Fourier transforms, mathematical transformations that help decompose signals into their basic parts. These transformations simplify applications ranging from signal processing to multiplying large numbers, so that a researcher doesn.t have to be "working like a dog" to get an answer. Brown is also using mathematics, specifically graph theory, to discover who wrote "In My Life," which both Lennon and McCartney claimed to have written. In his graphs, chords are represented by points that are connected when one chord immediately follows another. When all songs with known authorship are diagrammed, Brown will see which collection of graphs - McCartney.s or Lennon.s - is a better fit for "In My Life." Although it may seem a bit counterintuitive to use mathematics to learn more about a revolutionary band, these analytical methods identify and uncover compositional principles inherent in some of the best Beatles. music. Thus it.s completely natural and rewarding to apply mathematics to the Fab 4 For More Information: Professor Uses Mathematics to Decode Beatles Tunes, "The Wall Street Journal", January 30, 2009..




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Matching Vital Needs - Increasing the number of live-donor kidney transplants

A person needing a kidney transplant may have a friend or relative who volunteers to be a living donor, but whose kidney is incompatible, forcing the person to wait for a transplant from a deceased donor. In the U.S. alone, thousands of people die each year without ever finding a suitable kidney. A new technique applies graph theory to groups of incompatible patient-donor pairs to create the largest possible number of paired-donation exchanges. These exchanges, in which a donor paired with Patient A gives a kidney to Patient B while a donor paired with Patient B gives to Patient A, will dramatically increase transplants from living donors. Since transplantation is less expensive than dialysis, this mathematical algorithm, in addition to saving lives, will also save hundreds of millions of dollars annually. Naturally there can be more transplants if matches along longer patient-donor cycles are considered (e.g., A.s donor to B, B.s donor to C, and C.s donor to A). The problem is that the possible number of longer cycles grows so fast hundreds of millions of A >B>C>A matches in just 5000 donor-patient pairs that to search through all the possibilities is impossible. An ingenious use of random walks and integer programming now makes searching through all three-way matches feasible, even in a database large enough to include all incompatible patient-donor pairs. For More Information: Matchmaking for Kidneys, Dana Mackenzie, SIAM News, December 2008. Image of suboptimal two-way matching (in purple) and an optimal matching (in green), courtesy of Sommer Gentry.




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Knowing Rogues - Part 2

It doesn't take a perfect storm to generate a rogue wave-an open-ocean wave much steeper and more massive than its neighbors that appears with little or no warning. Sometimes winds and currents collide causing waves to combine nonlinearly and produce these towering walls of water. Mathematicians and other researchers are collecting data from rogue waves and modeling them with partial differential equations to understand how and why they form. A deeper understanding of both their origins and their frequency will result in safer shipping and offshore platform operations. Since rogue waves are rare and short lived (fortunately), studying them is not easy. So some researchers are experimenting with light to create rogue waves in a different medium. Results of these experiments are consistent with sailors' claims that rogues, like other unusual events, are more frequent than what is predicted by standard models. The standard models had assumed a bell-shaped distribution for wave heights, and anticipated a rogue wave about once every 10,000 years. This purported extreme unlikelihood led designers and builders to not account for their potential catastrophic effects. Today's recognition of rogues as rare, but realistic, possibilities could save the shipping industry billions of dollars and hundreds of lives. For More Information: "Dashing Rogues", Sid Perkins, Science News, November 18, 2006.




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Knowing Rogues - Part 1

It doesn't take a perfect storm to generate a rogue wave-an open-ocean wave much steeper and more massive than its neighbors that appears with little or no warning. Sometimes winds and currents collide causing waves to combine nonlinearly and produce these towering walls of water. Mathematicians and other researchers are collecting data from rogue waves and modeling them with partial differential equations to understand how and why they form. A deeper understanding of both their origins and their frequency will result in safer shipping and offshore platform operations. Since rogue waves are rare and short lived (fortunately), studying them is not easy. So some researchers are experimenting with light to create rogue waves in a different medium. Results of these experiments are consistent with sailors' claims that rogues, like other unusual events, are more frequent than what is predicted by standard models. The standard models had assumed a bell-shaped distribution for wave heights, and anticipated a rogue wave about once every 10,000 years. This purported extreme unlikelihood led designers and builders to not account for their potential catastrophic effects. Today's recognition of rogues as rare, but realistic, possibilities could save the shipping industry billions of dollars and hundreds of lives. For More Information: "Dashing Rogues", Sid Perkins, Science News, November 18, 2006.