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How, Once Upon a Time, a Dogmatic Political Party Changed its Tune

Pietro Nivola examines lessons from the War of 1812 and applies them to the political polarization of today.

      
 
 




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This Too Shall Pass: Reflections on the Repositioning of Political Parties

In This Too Shall Pass: Reflections on the Repositioning of Political Parties, Pietro Nivola argues that those who fret that the political parties will never evolve to meet half-way on policy or ideology need only to look to American history to see that this view is wrong-headed.  

      
 
 




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The reasons why right-wing terror is rising in America

       




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Boosting growth across more of America

On Wednesday, January 29, the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program (Brookings Metro) hosted “Boosting Growth Across More of America: Pushing Back Against the ‘Winner-take-most’ Economy,” an event delving into the research and proposals offered in Robert D. Atkinson, Mark Muro, and Jacob Whiton’s recent report “The case for growth centers: How to spread tech innovation across…

       




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No matter which way you look at it, tech jobs are still concentrating in just a few cities

In December, Brookings Metro and Robert Atkinson of the Information Technology & Innovation Foundation released a report noting that 90% of the nation's innovation sector employment growth in the last 15 years was generated in just five major coastal cities: Seattle, Boston, San Francisco, San Diego, and San Jose, Calif. This finding sparked appropriate consternation,…

       




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Stimulus steps the US should take to reduce regional economic damages from the COVID-19 recession

The coronavirus pandemic seems likely to trigger a severe worldwide recession of uncertain length. In addition to responding to the public health needs, policymakers are debating how they can respond with creative new economic policies, which are now urgently needed. One strategy they should consider is both traditional and yet oddly missing from the current…

       




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COVID-19 is hitting the nation’s largest metros the hardest, making a “restart” of the economy more difficult

The coronavirus pandemic has thrown America into a coast-to-coast lockdown, spurring ubiquitous economic impacts. Data on smartphone movement indicate that virtually all regions of the nation are practicing some degree of social distancing, resulting in less foot traffic and sales for businesses. Meanwhile, last week’s release of unemployment insurance claims confirms that every state is seeing a significant…

       




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Will COVID-19 rebalance America’s uneven economic geography? Don’t bet on it.

With the national economy virtually immobilized as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, it might seem like the crisis is going to mute the issue of regional economic divergence and its pattern of booming superstar cities and depressed, left-behind places. But don’t be so sure about that. In fact, the pandemic might intensify the unevenness…

       




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How COVID-19 will change the nation’s long-term economic trends, according to Brookings Metro scholars

Will the coronavirus change everything? While that sentiment feels true to the enormity of the crisis, it likely isn’t quite right, as scholars from the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program have been exploring since the pandemic began. Instead, the COVID-19 crisis seems poised to accelerate or intensify many economic and metropolitan trends that were already underway, with huge…

       




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The economic costs of reopening too soon

       




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The effect of COVID-19 and disease suppression policies on labor markets: A preliminary analysis of the data

World leaders are deliberating when and how to re-open business operations amidst considerable uncertainty as to the economic consequences of the coronavirus. One pressing question is whether or not countries that have remained relatively open have managed to escape at least some of the economic harm, and whether that harm is related to the spread…

       




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What COVID-19 means for America’s child welfare system

The COVID-19 crisis has allowed a revealing look into the shortcomings of the U.S.’s child welfare system. While no institution has proved strong enough to operate effectively and efficiently under the unprecedented circumstances brought on by COVID-19, the crisis has unveiled holes in the child welfare system that call for both immediate and long-term action.…

       




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Students have lost learning due to COVID-19. Here are the economic consequences.

Because of the COVID-19 crisis, the US economy has nearly ground to a halt. Tens of millions of workers are now seeing their jobs and livelihoods disappear—in some cases, permanently. Many businesses will never reopen, especially those that have or had large debts to manage. State and federal lawmakers have responded by pouring trillions of…

       




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Supporting students and promoting economic recovery in the time of COVID-19

COVID-19 has upended, along with everything else, the balance sheets of the nation’s elementary and secondary schools. As soon as school buildings closed, districts faced new costs associated with distance learning, ranging from physically distributing instructional packets and up to three meals a day, to supplying instructional programming for television and distributing Chromebooks and internet…

       




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Why cities are the new face of American leadership on global migration

Almost immediately after the Trump administration withdrew from the Global Compact on Migration earlier this month, American mayors responded by requesting their seat at the table. Leaders of 18 U.S. cities, from Pittsburgh to Milwaukee to San Jose, joined a petition signed by more than 130 mayors from around the world. They asked co-facilitators Mexico and…

       




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Assessing your innovation district: A how-to guide

“Assessing your innovation district: A how-to guide,” is a tool for public and private leaders to audit the assets that comprise their local innovation ecosystem. The guide is designed to reveal how to best target resources toward innovative and inclusive economic development tailored to an area’s unique strengths and challenges. Over the past two decades,…

       




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Assessing your innovation district: Five key questions to explore

Over the past two decades, a confluence of changing market demands and demographic preferences have led to a revaluation of urban places—and a corresponding shift in the geography of innovation. This trend has resulted in a clustering of firms, intermediaries, and workers—often near universities, medical centers, or other anchors—in dense innovation districts. Local economic development…

       




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Measuring growth democratically

Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo, two of this year’s recipients of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, are the latest among leading economists to remind us that gross domestic product is an imperfect measure of human welfare. The Human Development Index, published by the United Nations Development Programme, aggregates indicators of life expectancy, education,…

       




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How to make the global governance system work better for Africa

The provision of global public goods (GPG)—such as mitigating climate change, fighting tax avoidance, or preserving and extending fair rules-based international trade—is even more important for Africa than for other parts of the world. And yet, Africa could be sidelined from the decisionmaking process for the foreseeable future in a global governance system dominated by…

       




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President Hu Jintao’s Visit: The Economic Challenges and Opportunities

On the eve of President Hu Jintao's long-anticipated visit to Washington, critical economic policy issues loom large for both the U.S. and China. Over the past two decades, China has transformed into a major economic power and continues to play a growing role in the global community. Its ascension is likely to be one of…

       




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Debunking America’s China Syndrome

LONDON After his visit to Washington, President Hu Jintao of China might wish he had stayed home. In all likelihood, he will have encountered an onslaught of accusations of currency manipulation, unfair trade and intellectual property rights violationsThe alarm over China's economic ascension is akin to the China Syndrome, made famous by the 1979 film…

       




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Western Banks Must Take Their Own Medicine

For decades westerners have lectured central and eastern European policymakers on how to regulate and supervise, balance their budgets and stem credit expansion. Now they must deal with the consequences of a global crisis triggered because the west broke all the rules it preached. Worse, it is a crisis they cannot do much to resolve.…

       




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Examining charter schools in America

Charter schools, introduced to the U.S. in the 1980s, were conceived as laboratories of experimentation in instruction, integration, and school leadership. Over time, they have become an increasingly popular alternative to traditional public schools. As of this year, charters account for approximately six percent of all public school students, and President Obama’s proposed budget includes…

       




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Solutions to Chicago’s youth violence crisis

Arne Duncan, former U.S. secretary of education during the Obama administration and now a nonresident senior fellow with the Brown Center on Education Policy, discusses the crisis of youth violence in Chicago and solutions that strengthen schools and encourage more opportunities for those who are marginalized to make a living in the legal economy. http://directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/id/4485071…

       




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An open letter to America’s college presidents and education school deans:

Schools of education are providing one of the most important services in America today, training our future teachers who will prepare our children to succeed in work and in life. No other responsibility is more directly linked to our future. The world’s strongest economy relies on a skilled and creative workforce. The world’s oldest democracy…

       




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Federal education policy under the Trump administration

The federal government has been involved in public schools for decades. Yet, the relationship between the federal government and the states has evolved and recalibrated regularly over that period. Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election is widely viewed as a signal of change for the federal government’s role in American society generally, and…

       




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Disrupting the cycle of gun violence: A candid discussion with young Chicago residents

Watch a video of the event on CSPAN.org » The lives of young people are disrupted, traumatized, and cut short by gun violence every single day in the United States. Despite progress being made in some cities to reduce gun violence, communities in Chicago have recently endured record numbers of homicides and shootings. Over 71 percent…

       




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Empowering young people to end Chicago’s gun violence problem

Former U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan sits down with young men from Chicago CRED (Creating Real Economic Diversity) to discuss the steps they have taken to disrupt the cycle of gun violence in their community and transition into the legal economy. http://directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/id/6400344 Also in this episode, meet David M. Rubenstein Fellow Randall Akee in…

       




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DOE’s justification for rescinding Gainful Employment rules distorts research

The Department of Education has rescinded the Gainful Employment regulations developed by the Obama administration. These regulations were designed to cut off federal student aid to postsecondary programs that produce earnings too low to support the debt students incur while earning credentials that promise to lead to good jobs. This action is a significant step…

       




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Comments on “How automation and other forms of IT affect the middle class: Assessing the estimates” by Jaimovich and Siu

Nir Jaimovich and Henry Siu have written a very helpful and useful paper that summarizes the empirical literature by labor economists on how automation affect the labor market and the middle class. Their main arguments can be summarized as follows: The labor markets in the US (and other industrialized countries) has become increasingly “polarized” in…

       




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Turkey and the Kurds: From Predicament to Opportunity


Introduction

Ninety years after the foundation of the Turkish Republic, Ankara appears to be on the verge of a paradigmatic change in its approach to the Kurdish question. It is too early to tell whether the current negotiations between Ankara and the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) will manage to accommodate Kurdish cultural and political demands. Yet, for perhaps the first time in its history, the Turkish Republic seems willing to incorporate Kurds into the political system rather than militarily confront them. For decades, Turkey sought to assimilate its sizable Kurdish minority, about 15 million people, or around 20 percent of its total population. From the mid-1920s until the end of the Cold War, Ankara denied the ethnic existence of Kurds and their cultural rights. It took a three-decade-long PKK-led insurgency – which started in 1984 and caused a death toll of 40,000 – for the republic to start accepting the “Kurdish reality” and introduce cultural reforms. This perhaps explains why the PKK’s jailed leader Abdullah Öcalan is a national hero in the eyes of significant segments of Kurdish society.

Of the approximately 30 million Kurds in the Middle East, about half live in Turkey. Kurds also constitute a significant minority in neighboring Iraq, Iran and Syria. The Palestinians are often referred to as the most famous case of a “nation without a state” in the Middle East. But the Kurds, who outnumber the Palestinians by a factor of five, are by far the largest ethnic community in the region seeking national self-determination. The future of Turkey - and the Middle East - is therefore intimately linked to the question of Kurdish nationalism.

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Image Source: © Stringer . / Reuters
     
 
 




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Kurds will be the agent of change in Turkish politics


Real political change in Turkey has been hard to come by in recent years. Establishment parties in Turkey have, time and again, proven unable to change the political system. Now a new hope for reform has emerged in Turkey from an unlikely source: the Kurds.

During most of the Cold War—and particularly during the 1980s and 1990s—Turkey had, for lack of a better word, a Kemalist consensus: The military played a major role behind the scenes, and those outside the consensus, especially the Islamists and the Kurds, were essentially excluded from politics. 

The first wave of democratization in the post-Cold War era in Turkey came from the Islamists—specifically, from the Justice and Development Party (AKP). In 2002, when the AKP came to power, it decided that accession to the European Union should be its main goal and that effort could serve as tool to undermine the political power of the Turkish military that still lurked behind the scenes. So, incredibly, an Islamist party, the AKP, decided to bring about a post-Kemalist system by pushing for membership in the EU’s essentially liberal, democratic project. This strategy explains why Turkish liberals supported the AKP and could hope that the Islamists would push the system in a liberal direction.

But then something tragic happened. The AKP became the establishment. After the military was essentially defeated as a political force, the AKP ceased to be an anti-establishment party. Rather, it became a party that started to use the privileges of power, and itself began its own networks of patronage clientelism, and became a victim of this entity called the state. The AKP became the state. 

Now we're in a situation where the second wave of democratization may also come from an anti-establishment party, this one mostly representing the Kurds. The most democratic, the most liberal, the most progressive narrative that you hear in Turkish politics today is coming from Selahattin Demirtaş of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP)—not the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), not the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), and not the AKP.

There is reason to think that, in Turkey, only anti-establishment parties can actually improve the system. The old AKP was an anti-establishment party. What gives me hope about the HDP is that, even when it enters the parliament—and even if a miracle happens and it enters a coalition government—it will never become the state. 

By definition, the HDP is a Kurdish political party. The Islamists could become the state, because Turkey is 99 percent Muslim, and people could establish basically a sense of supremacy based on Muslim identity. The Kurds will never be able to represent the majority. They will never be able to become the state. They have vested and permanent interest in the rule of law—indeed their very survival depends on it. Their survival depends on minority rights and on checks and balances. This stark fact gives me hope about the HDP and its agenda.

What’s wrong with the rest of the Turkish opposition?

The real puzzle is the failure of establishment political parties to challenge the system. It would have been wonderful for a center-right party or a center-left party to have taken Turkey to the post-Kemalist phase, to a post-military, pro-E.U., pro-progressive phase. But the mainstream political parties have failed. The establishment of Turkey has failed. The Kemalist order in Turkey has failed.

The agent of change was first the Islamists, and now the agent of change has become the Kurds. 

What is it that creates this mental block of establishment political parties? Why did it take so many years for the CHP to understand that it can become an agent of change, too? In the absence of a left-wing movement in Turkey, there will never be balance. We need a progressive left. We need something that can challenge the strong coalition on the right. The HDP alone cannot be there.

One thing that is not being discussed in Turkey is the possibility of a CHP-HDP coalition, yet this is the most natural coalition. The CHP, if it's a progressive political party, it should be able to get rid of its Kemalist, neo-nationalist baggage and embrace the progress of liberal, democratic agenda of the HDP. 

One reason that the CHP voters and the CHP itself are unable to really embrace the HDP is because the CHP, deep down, is still the party of Atatürk, still the party of Kemalism, still the party of nationalism. And what the Kurds want in Turkey—make no mistake—what the Kurds want in Turkey is autonomy. They want nothing short of autonomy.

The days when you could basically solve the Kurdish question with some cosmetic cultural reforms are over. They want democratic decentralization. And to me, that translates into autonomy. And this is a very difficult step to digest for the CHP. Add to this the fact that the disgruntled CHP voters are voting for the HDP, the fact that people who usually could vote for a central-left progressive party are so disillusioned with the CHP that they're gravitating to the HDP. Therefore, there is also a tactical obstacle, in terms of cooperation between the HDP and the CHP right now. 

But down the line, I think the best reconciliation between Turkish nationalism and Kurdish nationalism would come from a CHP-HDP coalition. Turkish nationalism needs to reconcile itself to the fact that the Kurdish genie is out of the bottle. The good old days of assimilating the Kurds are over. The Kurds want autonomy. They will probably get it, hopefully in a bloodless way.

      
 
 




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Physician Social Networks and Geographic Variation in Medical Care

CSED Working Paper No. 33: Physician Social Networks and Geographic Variation in Medical Care

      
 
 




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Hutchins Roundup: Medical billing, young firms, and more

Studies in this week’s Hutchins Roundup find that collecting payments from insurers is highly costly for health care providers, superstar firms account for less of productivity growth than previously thought, and more. Want to receive the Hutchins Roundup as an email? Sign up here to get it in your inbox every Thursday. Costly billing hassles…

       




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The ABCs of the post-COVID economic recovery

The economic activity of the U.S. has plummeted in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic and unemployment has soared—largely the result of social distancing policies designed to slow the spread of the virus. The depth and speed of the decline will rival that of the Great Depression. But will the aftermath be as painful? Or…

       




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Making sense of the monthly jobs report during the COVID-19 pandemic

The monthly jobs report—the unemployment rate from one survey and the change in employer payrolls from another survey—is one of the most closely watched economic indicators, particularly at a time of an economic crisis like today. Here’s a look at how these data are collected and how to interpret them during the COVID-19 pandemic. What…

       




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Artificial intelligence and bias: Four key challenges

It is not news that, for all its promised benefits, artificial intelligence has a bias problem. Concerns regarding racial or gender bias in AI have arisen in applications as varied as hiring, policing, judicial sentencing, and financial services. If this extraordinary technology is going to reach its full potential, addressing bias will need to be…

       




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Artificial intelligence, deepfakes, and the uncertain future of truth

Deepfakes are videos that have been constructed to make a person appear to say or do something that they never said or did. With artificial intelligence-based methods for creating deepfakes becoming increasingly sophisticated and accessible, deepfakes are raising a set of challenging policy, technology, and legal issues. Deepfakes can be used in ways that are…

       




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Ways to mitigate artificial intelligence problems

The world is experiencing extraordinary advances in artificial intelligence, with applications being deployed in finance, health care, education, e-commerce, criminal justice, and national defense, among other areas. As AI technology advances across industries and into everyday use around the world, important questions must be addressed regarding transparency, fairness, privacy, ethics, and human safety. What are…

       




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Artificial intelligence, geopolitics, and information integrity

Much has been written, and rightly so, about the potential that artificial intelligence (AI) can be used to create and promote misinformation. But there is a less well-recognized but equally important application for AI in helping to detect misinformation and limit its spread. This dual role will be particularly important in geopolitics, which is closely…

       




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How well-intentioned privacy laws can contribute to wrongful convictions

In 2019, an innocent man was jailed in New York City after the complaining witness showed police screenshots of harassing text messages and recordings of threatening voicemails that the man allegedly sent in violation of a protective order. The man’s Legal Aid Society defense attorney subpoenaed records from SpoofCard, a company that lets people send…

       




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Coupled Contagion Dynamics of Fear and Disease: Mathematical and Computational Explorations

Published version of the CSED October 2007 Working Paper

ABSTRACT

Background

In classical mathematical epidemiology, individuals do not adapt their contact behavior during epidemics. They do not endogenously engage, for example, in social distancing based on fear. Yet, adaptive behavior is well-documented in true epidemics. We explore the effect of including such behavior in models of epidemic dynamics.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using both nonlinear dynamical systems and agent-based computation, we model two interacting contagion processes: one of disease and one of fear of the disease. Individuals can “contract” fear through contact with individuals who are infected with the disease (the sick), infected with fear only (the scared), and infected with both fear and disease (the sick and scared). Scared individuals–whether sick or not–may remove themselves from circulation with some probability, which affects the contact dynamic, and thus the disease epidemic proper. If we allow individuals to recover from fear and return to circulation, the coupled dynamics become quite rich, and can include multiple waves of infection. We also study flight as a behavioral response.

Conclusions/Significance

In a spatially extended setting, even relatively small levels of fear-inspired flight can have a dramatic impact on spatio-temporal epidemic dynamics. Self-isolation and spatial flight are only two of many possible actions that fear-infected individuals may take. Our main point is that behavioral adaptation of some sort must be considered.”

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Publication: PLoS One Journal
      
 
 




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Made in Africa: manufacturing and economic growth on the continent

In this week’s episode, John Page, a senior fellow in the Global Economy and Development Program, assesses the potential role of several economic strategies in transforming Africa’s industrial development for the global economy. “Between now and about 2030, the estimates are that as many as 85 million jobs at [the] bottom end of manufacturing will…

      
 
 




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Made in Africa

Why is there so little industry in Africa? Over the past forty years, industry and business interests have moved increasingly from the developed to the developing world, yet Africa’s share of global manufacturing has fallen from about 3 percent in 1970 to less than 2 percent in 2014. Industry is important to low-income countries. It…

      
 
 




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Commodities, industry, and the African Growth Miracle

The 2016 Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank occur during uncertain times for the “African Growth Miracle.” After more than two decades of sustained economic expansion, growth in sub-Saharan Africa slowed to 3.4 percent in 2015, the weakest performance since 2009. The growth slow-down reflects lower commodity prices, declining growth…

      
 
 




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Made in Africa: Toward an industrialization strategy for the continent

Since 1995, Africa’s explosive economic growth has taken place without the changes in economic structure that normally occur as incomes per person rise. In particular, Africa’s experience with industrialization has been disappointing, especially as, historically, industry has been a driving force behind structural change. The East Asian “Miracle” is a manufacturing success story, but sub-Saharan…

      
 
 




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Getting a High Five: Advancing Africa’s transformative agenda

At his swearing in, the new African Development Bank President Akinwumi Adesina set out an agenda for the economic transformation of the continent. Among the five pillars of that agenda—popularly known as the “high fives”—is one that may have surprised many, especially in the donor community: Industrialize Africa. Why the surprise? Beyond supporting improvements in…

      
 
 




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The US-Africa Business Forum: Africa’s “middle class” and the “in-between” sector—A new opening for manufacturing?

Editor’s Note: On September 21, the Department of Commerce and Bloomberg Philanthropies are hosting the second U.S.-Africa Business Forum. Building on the forum in 2014, this year’s meeting again hosts heads of state, U.S. CEOs, and African business leaders, but aims to go beyond past commitments and towards effective implementation. This year’s forum will focus on six sectors important…

      
 
 




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Africa’s industrialization in the era of the 2030 Agenda: From political declarations to action on the ground

Although African countries enjoyed fast economic growth based on high commodity prices over the past decade, this growth has not translated into the economic transformation the continent needs to eradicate extreme poverty and enjoy economic prosperity. Now, more than ever, the necessity for Africa to industrialize is being stressed at various international forums, ranging from…

      
 
 




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Overcoming barriers: Sustainable development, productive cities, and structural transformation in Africa

Against a background of protracted decline in global commodity prices and renewed focus on the Africa rising narrative, Africa is proving resilient, underpinned by strong economic performance in non-commodity exporting countries. The rise of African cities contains the potential for new engines for the continent’s structural transformation, if harnessed properly. However, the susceptibility of Africa’s…