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Coronavirus: Public Health Emergency or Pandemic – Does Timing Matter?

1 May 2020

Dr Charles Clift

Senior Consulting Fellow, Global Health Programme
The World Health Organization (WHO) has been criticized for delaying its announcements of a public health emergency and a pandemic for COVID-19. But could earlier action have influenced the course of events?

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WHO director-general Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at the COVID-19 press briefing on March 11, 2020, the day the coronavirus outbreak was classed as a pandemic. Photo by FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images.

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the spread of COVID-19 to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on January 30 this year and then characterized it as a pandemic on March 11.

Declaring a PHEIC is the highest level of alert that WHO is obliged to declare, and is meant to send a powerful signal to countries of the need for urgent action to combat the spread of the disease, mobilize resources to help low- and middle-income countries in this effort and fund research and development on needed treatments, vaccines and diagnostics. It also obligates countries to share information with WHO.

Once the PHEIC was declared, the virus continued to spread globally, and WHO began to be asked why it had not yet declared the disease a pandemic. But there is no widely accepted definition of a pandemic, generally it is just considered an epidemic which affects many countries globally.

Potentially more deadly

The term has hitherto been applied almost exclusively to new forms of flu, such as H1N1 in 2009 or Spanish flu in 1918, where the lack of population immunity and absence of a vaccine or effective treatments makes the outbreak potentially much more deadly than seasonal flu (which, although global, is not considered a pandemic).

For COVID-19, WHO seemed reluctant to declare a pandemic despite the evidence of global spread. Partly this was because of its influenza origins — WHO’s emergency programme executive director said on March 9 that ‘if this was influenza, we would have called a pandemic ages ago’.

He also expressed concern that the word traditionally meant moving — once there was widespread transmission — from trying to contain the disease by testing, isolating the sick and tracing and quarantining their contacts, to a mitigation approach, implying ‘the disease will spread uncontrolled’.

WHO’s worry was that the world’s reaction to the word pandemic might be there was now nothing to be done to stop its spread, and so countries would effectively give up trying. WHO wanted to send the message that, unlike flu, it could still be pushed back and the spread slowed down.

In announcing the pandemic two days later, WHO’s director-general Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus reemphasised this point: ‘We cannot say this loudly enough, or clearly enough, or often enough: all countries can still change the course of this pandemic’ and that WHO was deeply concerned ‘by the alarming levels of inaction’.

The evidence suggests that the correct message did in fact get through. On March 13, US president Donald Trump declared a national emergency, referring in passing to WHO’s announcement. On March 12, the UK launched its own strategy to combat the disease. And in the week following WHO’s announcements, at least 16 other countries announced lockdowns of varying rigour including Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Serbia, Spain and Switzerland. Italy and Greece had both already instituted lockdowns prior to the WHO pandemic announcement.

It is not possible to say for sure that WHO’s announcement precipitated these measures because, by then, the evidence of the rapid spread was all around for governments to see. It may be that Italy’s dramatic nationwide lockdown on March 9 reverberated around European capitals and elsewhere.

But it is difficult to believe the announcement did not have an effect in stimulating government actions, as was intended by Dr Tedros. Considering the speed with which the virus was spreading from late February, might an earlier pandemic announcement by WHO have stimulated earlier aggressive actions by governments?

Declaring a global health emergency — when appropriate — is a key part of WHO’s role in administering the International Health Regulations (IHR). Significantly, negotiations on revisions to the IHR, which had been ongoing in a desultory fashion in WHO since 1995, were accelerated by the experience of the first serious coronavirus outbreak — SARS — in 2002-2003, leading to their final agreement in 2005.

Under the IHR, WHO’s director-general decides whether to declare an emergency based on a set of criteria and on the advice of an emergency committee. IHR defines an emergency as an ‘extraordinary event that constitutes a public health risk through the international spread of disease and potentially requires a coordinated international response’.

In the case of COVID-19, the committee first met on January 22-23 but were unable to reach consensus on a declaration. Following the director-general’s trip to meet President Xi Jinping in Beijing, the committee reconvened on January 30 and this time advised declaring a PHEIC.

But admittedly, public recognition of what a PHEIC means is extremely low. Only six have ever been declared, with the first being the H1N1 flu outbreak which fizzled out quickly, despite possibly causing 280,000 deaths globally. During the H1N1 outbreak, WHO declared a PHEIC in April 2009 and then a pandemic in June, only to rescind both in August as the outbreak was judged to have transitioned to behave like a seasonal flu.

WHO was criticized afterwards for prematurely declaring a PHEIC and overreacting. This then may have impacted the delay in declaring the Ebola outbreak in West Africa as a PHEIC in 2014, long after it became a major crisis. WHO’s former legal counsel has suggested the PHEIC — and other aspects of the IHR framework — may not be effective in stimulating appropriate actions by governments and needs to be reconsidered.

When the time is right to evaluate lessons about the response, it might be appropriate to consider the relative effectiveness of the PHEIC and pandemic announcements and their optimal timing in stimulating appropriate action by governments. The effectiveness of lockdowns in reducing the overall death toll also needs investigation.




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Coronavirus Vaccine: Available For All, or When it's Your Turn?

4 May 2020

Professor David Salisbury CB

Associate Fellow, Global Health Programme
Despite high-level commitments and pledges to cooperate to ensure equitable global access to a coronavirus vaccine, prospects for fair distribution are uncertain.

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Researcher in Brazil working on virus replication in order to develop a vaccine against the coronavirus. Photo by DOUGLAS MAGNO/AFP via Getty Images.

When the H1N1 influenza pandemic struck in 2009, some industrialized countries were well prepared. Many countries’ preparedness plans had focused on preparing for an influenza pandemic and based on earlier alerts over the H5N1 ‘bird flu’ virus, countries had made advanced purchase or ‘sleeping’ contracts for vaccine supplies that could be activated as soon as a pandemic was declared. Countries without contracts scrambled to get supplies after those that already had contracts received their vaccine.

Following the 2009 pandemic, the European Union (EU) developed plans for joint-purchase vaccine contracts that any member state could join, guaranteeing the same price per dose for everyone. In 2009, low-income countries were unable to get the vaccine until manufacturers agreed to let 10 per cent of their production go to the World Health Organization (WHO).

The situation for COVID-19 could be even worse. No country had a sleeping contract in place for a COVID-19 vaccine since nobody had anticipated that the next pandemic would be a coronavirus, not an influenza virus. With around 80 candidate vaccines reported to be in development, choosing the right one will be like playing roulette.

These candidates will be whittled down as some will fail at an early stage of development and others will not get to scale-up for manufacturing. All of the world’s major vaccine pharmaceutical companies have said that they will divert resources to manufacture COVID-19 vaccines and, as long as they choose the right candidate for production, they have the expertise and the capacity to produce in huge quantities.

From roulette to a horse race

Our game now changes from roulette to a horse race, as the probability of winning is a matter of odds not a random chance. Countries are now able to try to make contracts alone or in purchasing consortia with other states, and with one of the major companies or with multiple companies. This would be like betting on one of the favourites.

For example, it has been reported that Oxford University has made an agreement with pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca, with a possibility of 100 million doses being available by the end of 2020. If the vaccine works and those doses materialize, and are all available for the UK, then the UK population requirements will be met in full, and the challenge becomes vaccinating everyone as quickly as possible.

Even if half of the doses were reserved for the UK, all those in high-risk or occupational groups could be vaccinated rapidly. However, as each major manufacturer accepts more contracts, the quantity that each country will get diminishes and the time to vaccinate the at-risk population gets longer.

At this point, it is not known how manufacturers will respond to requests for vaccine and how they will apportion supplies between different markets. You could bet on an outsider. You study the field and select a biotech that has potential with a good production development programme and a tie-in with a smaller-scale production facility.

If other countries do not try to get contracts, you will get your vaccine as fast as manufacturing can be scaled up; but because it is a small manufacturer, your supplies may take a long time. And outsiders do not often win races. You can of course, depending on your resources, cover several runners and try to make multiple contracts. However, you take on the risk that some will fail, and you may have compromised your eventual supply.

On April 24, the WHO co-hosted a meeting with the president of France, the president of the European Commission and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. It brought together heads of state and industry leaders who committed to ‘work towards equitable global access based on an unprecedented level of partnership’. They agreed ‘to create a strong unified voice, to build on past experience and to be accountable to the world, to communities and to one another’ for vaccines, testing materials and treatments.

They did not, however, say how this will be achieved and the absence of the United States was notable. The EU and its partners are hosting an international pledging conference on May 4 that aims to raise €7.5 billion in initial funding to kick-start global cooperation on vaccines. Co-hosts will be France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Norway and Saudi Arabia and the priorities will be ‘Test, Treat and Prevent’, with the latter dedicated to vaccines.

Despite these expressions of altruism, every government will face the tension between wanting to protect their own populations as quickly as possible and knowing that this will disadvantage poorer countries, where health services are even less able to cope. It will not be a vote winner to offer a share in available vaccine to less-privileged countries.

The factories for the biggest vaccine manufacturers are in Europe, the US and India. Will European manufacturers be obliged by the EU to restrict sales first to European countries? Will the US invoke its Defense Production Act and block vaccine exports until there are stocks enough for every American? And will vaccine only be available in India for those who can afford it?

The lessons on vaccine availability from the 2009 influenza pandemic are clear: vaccine was not shared on anything like an equitable basis. It remains to be seen if we will do any better in 2020.




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COVID-19 Crisis – Business as Usual for Gaza?

6 May 2020

Mohammed Abdalfatah

Asfari Foundation Academy Fellow
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought unprecedented challenges, economic collapse and strict lockdowns in many parts of the world. For the people of Gaza, this reality is nothing new.

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Palestinians light fireworks above the rubble during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan amid concerns about the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Gaza City , 30 April 2020. Photo by Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images.

In August 2012, when the UN released its report Gaza in 2020: A liveable place?, they could not have imagined what the world would look like in 2020: cities under lockdown, restrictions on movement, border closures, widespread unemployment, economic collapse, fear and anxiety and, above all, uncertainty about what the future holds.

For Gaza’s population of 2 million people this reality is nothing new. The conditions that the rest of the world are currently experiencing as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic is similar to the tight blockade Gaza has been living under ever since Hamas took over in 2007. Israel has imposed severe restrictions on the movement of people and goods, youth unemployment has reached 60 per cent, and over 80 per cent of Gaza’s population are now dependent on international aid.

The people of Gaza are having to face the COVID-19 crisis already at a disadvantage, with poor infrastructure, limited resources and a shortage of the most basic services, such as water and power supply. It also has a fragile health system, with hospitals lacking essential medical supplies and equipment, as well as the capacity to deal with the outbreak as there are only 84 ICU beds and ventilators available.

 

Meanwhile, intra-Palestinian divisions have persisted and were evident in the initial reaction to the pandemic. When President Mahmoud Abbas announced a state of emergency, it took two days for the Hamas-led government in Gaza to follow suit and shut down schools and universities. They later made a separate emergency appeal to address the crisis and prepare for a COVID-19 response in Gaza. This lack of coordination is typical of the way the Palestinian Authority and Hamas approach crisis situations.

After the initial uncoordinated response, Hamas, as the de-facto ruler of Gaza, has asserted its ability to control Gaza’s borders by putting in place quarantine measures for everyone who enters the strip, whether through the Erez checkpoint with Israel or the Rafah border with Egypt. They have also assigned 21 hospitals, hotels, and schools as compulsory quarantine centres for all arrivals from abroad, who have to stay in quarantine for 21 days. In comparison, there are 20 quarantine centres in the West Bank.  These strict measures have prevented the spread of the virus in the community and confined it to the quarantine centres, with only 20 confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of 6 May. Gaza’s de-facto authorities have also been able to monitor markets and prices to ensure the availability of essential goods.

Faced with a major crisis, Al-Qassam Brigades – the armed wing of Hamas – have tried to play the role of a national army by participating in efforts to fight the pandemic. They have relatively good logistical capacity and have contributed to the construction of two quarantine facilities with a total capacity of 1,000 units to prepare for more arrivals into Gaza. At the local level, municipalities have been disinfecting public spaces and facilities in addition to disseminating information about the virus and related preventative and protective measures. Other precautionary measures put in place include closing the weekly open markets, and restricting social gatherings like weddings and funerals.

Despite COVID-19, it’s business as usual when it comes to international dealings with Gaza. The key parties in the conflict – Israel, Hamas and the Palestinian Authority – along with the main external actors – Egypt, the United Nations and Qatar – have continued to stick to their policies aimed at keeping the security situation under control and preventing further escalation. Although Israel has allowed entry of pharmaceutical supplies and medical equipment into Gaza during the pandemic, it has kept its restrictions on the movement of goods and people in place, while keeping a close eye on the development of the COVID-19 outbreak in Gaza – a major outbreak here would be a nightmare scenario for Israel.

Meanwhile, Qatar has continued to address the humanitarian and economic needs of Gaza in an attempt to ease the pressure and prevent further escalation. It has pledged $150 million over the next six months to help families in Gaza from poorer backgrounds. Gaza has also been discussed by the Middle East Quartet, as Nickolay Mladenov, the UN special coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, expressed his concern about the risk of a disease outbreak in Gaza during a call with the members of the Quartet.

Amid the pandemic, threats are still being exchanged between Israel and Hamas. The Israeli defence minister, Naftali Bennett, requested that in return for providing humanitarian aid to Gaza, Hamas agrees to return the remains of two Israeli soldiers killed in the 2014 war. While openly rejecting Bennett's statement, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, has offered to move forward with a prisoner swap deal if Israel agrees to release elderly prisoners and detainees in addition to detained women and children. Though dealing with its own COVID-19 outbreak, Egypt has started to mediate between the two parties in an attempt to stabilize the situation and reach a prisoner swap deal.

In the wake of this pandemic, lessons should be learned and policies should be examined, by all parties. Firstly, Israel should re-evaluate its security measures towards Gaza by easing restrictions on movement and trade which would have a positive impact on living conditions for Gaza’s population. The current measures have proven to be unsustainable and have contributed to the endless cycle of violence. Secondly, the intra-Palestinian division should end, to save Palestinians from contradictory policies and insufficient capacity on both sides. In fact, all previous attempts have failed to end this self-destructive division and this is due to the absence of political will on both sides. Elections seem to be the only viable path towards unity. Finally, efforts by the international community should go beyond stabilizing the security situation and ongoing crisis inside Gaza, where disruption of normal life is the norm.

While the world has reacted to this pandemic with a whole host of new policies and emergency measures, it has remained business as usual when dealing with Gaza. Should COVID-19 spread in Gaza, its people – who have already paid the price of a continuous blockade and intra-Palestinian division for 13 years – will pay a heavy price yet again. However, this time it is not a crisis that they alone will have to face.




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Algeria’s Perfect Storm: COVID-19 and Its Fallout

6 May 2020

Adel Hamaizia

Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme

Yahia H. Zoubir

Senior Professor of International Studies, KEDGE Business School; Visiting Fellow, Brookings Doha Center
Coronavirus is a godsend for Algeria’s government to introduce restrictive measures beyond those needed to contain COVID-19. But its new leaders are missing a chance to gain legitimacy, which will offset the socio-economic fallout of the drop in oil prices.

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Algerian volunteers prepare personal protection equipment (PPE) to help combat the coronavirus epidemic in the capital Algiers. Photo by RYAD KRAMDI/AFP via Getty Images.

Although protests successfully ended Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s 20-year sultanistic rule a little over one year ago, demands have been continuing to dismantle the system, get rid of the old personnel, and institute democracy.

The controversial election in December of Abdelmadjid Tebboune — who has inherited a disastrous situation — has not tempered the determination of the Hirak protest movement. As a former minister and prime minister under Bouteflika, the new president has won little legitimacy, and protests have continued.

Now COVID-19 is worsening already dire economic conditions, such as a sharp drop in oil prices. By the beginning of May, statistics showed 10% of confirmed cases have ended in fatality, the highest percentage in the region.

Maintaining an authoritarian style

Hirak had already called for the suspension of the marches — mobilising online instead — before the government’s measures, which include curfews and lockdowns, demonstrating a high sense of duty. But instead of appeasing Hirak’s demands, the government has maintained the authoritarian style of its predecessors.

Tebboune released more than 5,000 prisoners on March 31 but kept prisoners of conscience and leaders of the hirak imprisoned, then subsequently imprisoned journalists and activists. It even passed a controversial penal law, that also covers fake news, and may be used to justify actions against journalists.

The regime wishes to see an end to the Hirak, and rejects accusations of totalitarianism by insisting freedom and a democratic climate exist in Algeria.

Tebboune’s actions contradict his praise for the ‘blessed’ hirak and his promises of instituting the rule of law. In proclaiming the measures, the government has shown disappointing leadership, acting in an authoritarian fashion.

Tebboune also declared proudly that Algeria was fully prepared to fight the coronavirus epidemic, an optimistic claim given the country has only 400 intensive care unit (ICU) beds, or one per 100,000 people. Despite hundreds of billions of hydrocarbon dollars accumulating during the Bouteflika-era, Algeria’s health system ranks 173 out of 195 countries.

Algerians often refer to hospitals as ‘mouroirs’, meaning ‘places for the dying’. Not only has the state failed to build modern hospitals but basic hygienic conditions are lacking, and government officials prefer being treated overseas. A 2014 project to build five university hospitals was abandoned, leaving the health sector in deplorable shape.

Before Chinese assistance arrived, the glaring lack of equipment to protect caregivers and care for the sick was evident. Prime Minister Abdelaziz Djerad admitted the health system required a ‘total overhaul’. The president recently stated Algeria’s doctors are among the 'best in the world' but didn't address why almost 15,000 Algerian doctors practice in France.

Strict containment measures are in sync with most countries but implementation is challenging when most people live in overcrowded urban dwellings (the average household consists of 5.9 members).

Water shortages in many areas makes good hygiene and decontamination impossible, while schools and universities find online teaching difficult when many students do not possess laptops or internet connections. And only 20% of Algerians have debit cards in a cash-dominated economy because of low trust in the public-dominated banking sector, making online shopping capability low.

An already declining macroeconomic situation is worsening due to COVID-19. The IMF revised its 2020 estimates for Algeria, forecasting a catastrophic contraction of -5.2% in a country where hydrocarbons account for 93% of export revenues and 60% of its budget.

Foreign currency reserves are now an estimated $55 billion (expected to fall to $44billion by the end of 2020), down from $200 billion in 2014, and Algerian crude has recently traded close to production costs, with the fiscal breakeven oil price at $157.

In line with its historic aversion to external borrowing, Tebboune recently ruled out seeking financial support from the ‘IMF or other foreign banks’, as he argued such borrowing undermines sovereign foreign policy because - when indebted - ‘we cannot talk about either Palestine or Western Sahara’, two causes dear to Algeria. ‘Friendly countries’ - most likely a reference to China - are said to have offered to grant loans which have been declined for now.

The government is forecasted to face a 20% budget shortfall this year, but Algeria’s fiscal response to COVID-19 is actually the largest among the regional hydrocarbon exporters at an estimated 8% of GDP, compared to an average of 3.2%. However, the government revised downwards its 2020 public spending by 50% (a second cut in a month, from an initial 30% reduction), halting state projects and slashing its $41 billion import bill by 25% while expanding agricultural production. National oil company SONATRACH will also cut planned investment by half to $7 billion but plans have been revealed to develop other natural resources including gold, uranium and phosphates.

But recent growth rates are insufficient to create jobs for those entering the labour market. Despite government attempts to support a rather anaemic ‘formal’ private sector, estimates are 700,000 jobs could be lost due to potential bankruptcies from reduced activity and a loss of markets abroad.

Facing potential social unrest and the quasi-preservation of a tired social contract, the government has committed to upholding public sector wages - including for 50% of the civil servants told to stay home - protecting sacrosanct, unsustainable subsidies, and increasing health expenditure to strengthen the capacity to combat COVID-19.

A supplementary finance law will include various measures that support businesses and the economic fallout. However, while the government is to be commended for its efforts to aid businesses, supporting large swathes of the population is challenging as approximately 50% of the workforce operate in the informal economy.

Weak administrative capacity and insufficient data to implement cash transfers makes the planned ‘solidarity allowance’ of 10,000 dinars ($80) for Ramadan difficult to allocate to those who most need it (especially those in the informal sector). Families, communities, and religious organisations continue to be a social safety net.

So COVID-19 has not created new problems, it has merely magnified and exacerbated the numerous inequalities and failures of the Bouteflika regime to sufficiently invest in human security (economic, food, health environmental, personal, community, and political). Typically, whenever oil prices and related earnings dwindle, the political system promises to reform and diversify the economy. Tebboune is repeating this same old tune.

There are positive elements, such as the government’s realization it must initiate genuine reforms. And local enterprises have been successfully producing artificial respirators, surgical masks, and other materials. Algerians, including the Hirak, are showing great social solidarity.

But the government must capitalize on these positive actions by introducing real change. Because, if not, Hirak will certainly be back in force once the crisis is over, and operating in an environment of worsening socioeconomic problems. The medicine of the past will not work.




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COVID-19 in South Africa: Leadership, Resilience and Inequality

7 May 2020

Christopher Vandome

Research Fellow, Africa Programme
In a world looking for leadership, South Africa’s president Cyril Ramaphosa has been remarkable. One year after he carried the time-worn ANC through a national election, South Africans are crying out for more.

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Cyril Ramaphosa at NASREC Expo Centre in Johannesburg where facilities are in place to treat coronavirus patients. Photo by JEROME DELAY/POOL/AFP via Getty Images.

In the COVID-19 crisis so far, Cyril Ramaphosa has been widely praised for displaying the decisive leadership so many hoped for when they cast their ballot for him in May 2019. Buttressed by others such as health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize, and on a simple objective to prevent transmission, South Africa has been a lesson to the world. Act fast. Act hard.

Former president Thabo Mbeki’s disastrous response to the HIV crisis cast a long shadow over his legacy, and Ramaphosa has taken note. South Africa has had one of the tightest lockdowns in the world. No exercise. No cigarettes. No alcohol.

The lockdown was imposed when the country had only around 1,000 recorded cases and just two deaths. As a result, transmission from returning travellers has not yet led to an exponential infection rate within the community. The government’s swift reaction has bought much needed time with the peak now seemingly delayed to September or October.

Continental and national leadership

Ramaphosa has also emerged as a key focal point for Africa-wide responses. As current chair of the African Union (AU) he leads the continental engagement with the World Health Organization (WHO), and the various international finance institutions, while South African officials are working with the AU and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) on a push for African debt restructuring.

He has also been active in trouble shooting to unlock external assistance to the continent, including from China and Russia. Appointing special envoys is typical of his boardroom-honed leadership style.

International and regional partnerships are vital for resilience and the arrival of 217 Cuban doctors to South Africa is strongly reminiscent of the liberationist solidarity of the Cold War era. And regional economies remain dependent on South Africa to protect their own vulnerable citizens. Following the 2008 financial crisis, it was South Africa’s regional trading relationships that remained robust, while trade with its main global partners in China and the US dropped.

Despite the plaudits, Ramaphosa remains vulnerable to challenge at home, notably around his failure to stimulate South Africa’s moribund economy. On the eve of lockdown, Moody’s joined its peers Standard and Poor’s and Fitch in giving South Africa a below investment grade credit rating. The move was a long time coming. Long mooted economic reforms were slow to materialise, and South Africa had fallen into recession.

Ramaphosa depends on a small core of close advisors and allies, initially united in apparent opposition to the kleptocratic rule of President Jacob Zuma and the deep patronage networks he created within both the party and the state. But this allegiance is being tested by economic reality. Support within the party was already drifting prior to the crisis.

Disagreements are not just technocratic – there are big ideological questions in play around the role of the state in the economy, the level of intervention, and its affordability, with key government figures sceptical of rapid market reforms. Energy minister and former union stalwart Gwede Mantashe is wary of job losses, and minister of public enterprises Pravin Gordhan protective of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Before coronavirus hit, Ramaphosa seemed content to allow these policy disputes to play themselves out with little decisive intervention.

Slow progress on reform, against worsening economic performance, left Ramaphosa and his allies exposed. In January the president missed the UK’s African Investment Summit in order to assert control over a party meeting at which it was expected his detractors would seek to remove Gordhan.

COVID-19 has sharpened thinking

As the independently assertive - and eminently quotable - pro-market reformist finance minister Tito Mboweni stated, ‘you can’t eat ideology’. Accelerated reform and restructuring is required if the government turns to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for assistance.

For the first time, Gordhan has been forced to deny a bailout to beleaguered state airline South African Airways (SAA), and the government’s lockdown bailout of R300 billion has been applauded by business. Much like the fiscal stimulus and recovery plan of 2018, it relies on smart spending, targeting sectors with high multiplier effects. It also includes significant reserve bank loans.

But it has been criticised for not doing enough to help the most vulnerable. There is considerable fear of what could happen when the virus takes hold in South Africa’s townships and informal settlements where social distancing is almost impossible, basic toilet facilities are shared, and HIV and TB rates high.

There are mounting concerns of the humanitarian cost of a prolonged lockdown, and the government has been faster than others in implementing a tiered lockdown system, trying to get people back to work and keep the economy afloat.

South Africa has been criticized by the UN for the use of lethal force by security forces in enforcing lockdown and, in a society plagued by corruption, there are fears legislation to stop the spread of false information could be used to restrict legitimate reporting on the virus response or other issues.

COVID-19 shines a spotlight on societies’ fault-lines worldwide. South Africa is often touted as having one of the highest levels of inequality in the world but, in a globalized economy, these divisions are international as much as they are local.

Resilience comes from within, but also depends on regional and global trading and financial systems. South Africans and international partners have long recognised Ramaphosa’s leadership qualities as an impressive voice for the global south.

But he must also be an advocate for South Africa’s poor. This crisis could accelerate implementation of his landmark pro-poor National Health Insurance and Universal Health Care programmes. Or the hit of COVID-19 on top of South Africa’s existing economic woes could see them derailed entirely. Ramaphosa must push through economic reforms at the same time as managing COVID-19 and rebuilding trust in his government.




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Metabolic profiling in colorectal cancer reveals signature metabolic shifts during tumorigenesis [13. Other]

Colorectal cancer (CRC) arises as the consequence of progressive changes from normal epithelial cells through polyp to tumor, and thus is an useful model for studying metabolic shift. In the present study, we studied the metabolomic profiles using high analyte specific gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) and liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS/MS) to attain a systems-level view of the shift in metabolism in cells progressing along the path to CRC. Colonic tissues including tumor, polyps and adjacent matched normal mucosa from 26 patients with sporadic CRC from freshly isolated resections were used for this study. The metabolic profiles were obtained using GC/MS and LC/MS/MS. Our data suggest there was a distinct profile change of a wide range of metabolites from mucosa to tumor tissues. Various amino acids and lipids in the polyps and tumors were elevated, suggesting higher energy needs for increased cellular proliferation. In contrast, significant depletion of glucose and inositol in polyps revealed that glycolysis may be critical in early tumorigenesis. In addition, the accumulation of hypoxanthine and xanthine, and the decrease of uric acid concentration, suggest that the purine biosynthesis pathway could have been substituted by the salvage pathway in CRC. Further, there was a step-wise reduction of deoxycholic acid concentration from mucosa to tumors. It appears that to gain a growth advantage, cancer cells may adopt alternate metabolic pathways in tumorigenesis and this flexibility allows them to adapt and thrive in harsh environment.




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Multiple hypothesis testing in proteomics: A strategy for experimental work [Invited]

In quantitative proteomics work, the differences in expression of many separate proteins are routinely examined to test for significant differences between treatments. This leads to the multiple hypothesis testing problem: when many separate tests are performed many will be significant by chance and be false positive results. Statistical methods such as the false discovery rate (FDR) method that deal with this problem have been disseminated for more than one decade. However a survey of proteomics journals shows that such tests are not widely implemented in one commonly used technique, quantitative proteomics using two-dimensional electrophoresis (2-DE). We outline a selection of multiple hypothesis testing methods, including some that are well known and some lesser known, and present a simple strategy for their use by the experimental scientist in quantitative proteomics work generally. The strategy focuses on the desirability of simultaneous use of several different methods, the choice and emphasis dependent on research priorities and the results in hand. This approach is demonstrated using case scenarios with experimental and simulated model data.




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Principles of electrospray ionization [Biophysical Methods]

Electrospray ionization is today the most widely used ionization technique in chemical and bio-chemical analysis. Interfaced with a mass spectrometer it allows to investigate the molecular composition of liquid samples. With electrospray a large variety of chemical substances can be ionized. There is no limitation in mass which enables even the investigation of large non-covalent protein complexes. Its high ionization efficiency profoundly changed bio-molecular sciences because proteins can be identified and quantified on trace amounts in a high throughput fashion. This review article focusses mainly on the exploration of the underlying ionization mechanism. Some ionization characteristics are discussed which are related to this mechanism. Typical spectra of peptides, proteins and non-covalent complexes are shown and the quantitative character of spectra is highlighted. Finally the possibilities and limitations in measuring the association constant of bivalent non-covalent complexes are described.




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Bayesian Proteoform Modeling Improves Protein Quantification of Global Proteomic Measurements [Technology]

As the capability of mass spectrometry-based proteomics has matured, tens of thousands of peptides can be measured simultaneously, which has the benefit of offering a systems view of protein expression. However, a major challenge is that with an increase in throughput, protein quantification estimation from the native measured peptides has become a computational task. A limitation to existing computationally-driven protein quantification methods is that most ignore protein variation, such as alternate splicing of the RNA transcript and post-translational modifications or other possible proteoforms, which will affect a significant fraction of the proteome. The consequence of this assumption is that statistical inference at the protein level, and consequently downstream analyses, such as network and pathway modeling, have only limited power for biomarker discovery. Here, we describe a Bayesian model (BP-Quant) that uses statistically derived peptides signatures to identify peptides that are outside the dominant pattern, or the existence of multiple over-expressed patterns to improve relative protein abundance estimates. It is a research-driven approach that utilizes the objectives of the experiment, defined in the context of a standard statistical hypothesis, to identify a set of peptides exhibiting similar statistical behavior relating to a protein. This approach infers that changes in relative protein abundance can be used as a surrogate for changes in function, without necessarily taking into account the effect of differential post-translational modifications, processing, or splicing in altering protein function. We verify the approach using a dilution study from mouse plasma samples and demonstrate that BP-Quant achieves similar accuracy as the current state-of-the-art methods at proteoform identification with significantly better specificity. BP-Quant is available as a MatLab ® and R packages at https://github.com/PNNL-Comp-Mass-Spec/BP-Quant.




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The Proteomics of Networks and Pathways: A Movie is Worth a Thousand Pictures [Editorial]

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Quantitative profiling of protein tyrosine kinases in human cancer cell lines by multiplexed parallel reaction monitoring assays [Technology]

Protein tyrosine kinases (PTKs) play key roles in cellular signal transduction, cell cycle regulation, cell division, and cell differentiation. Dysregulation of PTK-activated pathways, often by receptor overexpression, gene amplification, or genetic mutation, is a causal factor underlying numerous cancers. In this study, we have developed a parallel reaction monitoring (PRM)-based assay for quantitative profiling of 83 PTKs. The assay detects 308 proteotypic peptides from 54 receptor tyrosine kinases and 29 nonreceptor tyrosine kinases in a single run. Quantitative comparisons were based on the labeled reference peptide method. We implemented the assay in four cell models: 1) a comparison of proliferating versus epidermal growth factor (EGF)-stimulated A431 cells, 2) a comparison of SW480Null (mutant APC) and SW480APC (APC restored) colon tumor cell lines, and 3) a comparison of 10 colorectal cancer cell lines with different genomic abnormalities, and 4) lung cancer cell lines with either susceptibility (11-18) or acquired resistance (11-18R) to the epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor erlotinib. We observed distinct PTK expression changes that were induced by stimuli, genomic features or drug resistance, which were consistent with previous reports. However, most of the measured expression differences were novel observations. For example, acquired resistance to erlotinib in the 11-18 cell model was associated not only with previously reported upregulation of MET, but also with upregulation of FLK2 and downregulation of LYN and PTK7. Immunoblot analyses and shotgun proteomics data were highly consistent with PRM data. Multiplexed PRM assays provide a targeted, systems-level profiling approach to evaluate cancer-related proteotypes and adaptations. Data are available through Proteome eXchange Accession PXD002706.




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WITHDRAWN: Quantitative mass spectrometry analysis of PD-L1 protein expression, N-glycosylation and expression stoichiometry with PD-1 and PD-L2 in human melanoma [Research]

This article has been withdrawn by the authors. We discovered an error after this manuscript was published as a Paper in Press. Specifically, we learned that the structures of glycans presented for the PD-L1 peptide were drawn and labeled incorrectly. We wish to withdraw this article and submit a corrected version for review.




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Translating Divergent Environmental Stresses into a Common Proteome Response through Hik33 in a Model Cyanobacterium [Research]

The histidine kinase Hik33 plays important roles in mediating cyanobacterial response to divergent types of abiotic stresses including cold, salt, high light (HL), and osmotic stresses. However, how these functions are regulated by Hik33 remains to be addressed. Using a hik33-deficient strain (hik33) of Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 (Synechocystis) and quantitative proteomics, we found that Hik33 depletion induces differential protein expression highly similar to that induced by divergent types of stresses. This typically includes downregulation of proteins in photosynthesis and carbon assimilation that are necessary for cell propagation, and upregulation of heat shock proteins, chaperons, and proteases that are important for cell survival. This observation indicates that depletion of Hik33 alone mimics divergent types of abiotic stresses, and that Hik33 could be important for preventing abnormal stress response in the normal condition. Moreover, we found the majority of proteins of plasmid origin were significantly upregulated in hik33, though their biological significance remains to be addressed. Together, the systematically characterized Hik33-regulated cyanobacterial proteome, which is largely involved in stress responses, builds the molecular basis for Hik33 as a general regulator of stress responses.




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WITHDRAWN: Heralds of parallel MS: Data-independent acquisition surpassing sequential identification of data dependent acquisition in proteomics [Research]

This article has been withdrawn by the authors. This article did not comply with the editorial guidelines of MCP. Specifically, single peptide based protein identifications of 9-19% were included in the analysis and discussed in the results and conclusions. We wish to withdraw this article and resubmit a clarified, corrected manuscript for review.




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MaxQuant software for ion mobility enhanced shotgun proteomics [Technological Innovation and Resources]

Ion mobility can add a dimension to LC-MS based shotgun proteomics which has the potential to boost proteome coverage, quantification accuracy and dynamic range.  Required for this is suitable software that extracts the information contained in the four-dimensional (4D) data space spanned by m/z, retention time, ion mobility and signal intensity. Here we describe the ion mobility enhanced MaxQuant software, which utilizes the added data dimension. It offers an end to end computational workflow for the identification and quantification of peptides and proteins in LC-IMS-MS/MS shotgun proteomics data. We apply it to trapped ion mobility spectrometry (TIMS) coupled to a quadrupole time-of-flight (QTOF) analyzer. A highly parallelizable 4D feature detection algorithm extracts peaks which are assembled to isotope patterns. Masses are recalibrated with a non-linear m/z, retention time, ion mobility and signal intensity dependent model, based on peptides from the sample. A new matching between runs (MBR) algorithm that utilizes collisional cross section (CCS) values of MS1 features in the matching process significantly gains specificity from the extra dimension. Prerequisite for using CCS values in MBR is a relative alignment of the ion mobility values between the runs. The missing value problem in protein quantification over many samples is greatly reduced by CCS aware MBR.MS1 level label-free quantification is also implemented which proves to be highly precise and accurate on a benchmark dataset with known ground truth. MaxQuant for LC-IMS-MS/MS is part of the basic MaxQuant release and can be downloaded from http://maxquant.org.




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DEqMS: a method for accurate variance estimation in differential protein expression analysis [Technological Innovation and Resources]

Quantitative proteomics by mass spectrometry is widely used in biomarker research and basic biology research for investigation of phenotype level cellular events. Despite the wide application, the methodology for statistical analysis of differentially expressed proteins has not been unified. Various methods such as t-test, linear model and mixed effect models are used to define changes in proteomics experiments. However, none of these methods consider the specific structure of MS-data. Choices between methods, often originally developed for other types of data, are based on compromises between features such as statistical power, general applicability and user friendliness. Furthermore, whether to include proteins identified with one peptide in statistical analysis of differential protein expression varies between studies. Here we present DEqMS, a robust statistical method developed specifically for differential protein expression analysis in mass spectrometry data. In all datasets investigated there is a clear dependence of variance on the number of PSMs or peptides used for protein quantification. DEqMS takes this feature into account when assessing differential protein expression. This allows for a more accurate data-dependent estimation of protein variance and inclusion of single peptide identifications without increasing false discoveries. The method was tested in several datasets including E.coli proteome spike-in data, using both label-free and TMT-labelled quantification. In comparison to previous statistical methods used in quantitative proteomics, DEqMS showed consistently better accuracy in detecting altered protein levels compared to other statistical methods in both label-free and labelled quantitative proteomics data. DEqMS is available as an R package in Bioconductor.




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Immediate adaptation analysis implicates BCL6 as an EGFR-TKI combination therapy target in NSCLC [Research]

Drug resistance is a major obstacle to curative cancer therapies, and increased understanding of the molecular events contributing to resistance would enable better prediction of therapy response, as well as contribute to new targets for combination therapy. Here we have analyzed the early molecular response to epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) inhibition using RNA sequencing data covering 13 486 genes and mass spectrometry data covering 10 138 proteins. This analysis revealed a massive response to EGFR inhibition already within the first 24 hours, including significant regulation of hundreds of genes known to control downstream signaling, such as transcription factors, kinases, phosphatases and ubiquitin E3-ligases. Importantly, this response included upregulation of key genes in multiple oncogenic signaling pathways that promote proliferation and survival, such as ERBB3, FGFR2, JAK3 and BCL6, indicating an early adaptive response to EGFR inhibition. Using a library of more than 500 approved and experimental compounds in a combination therapy screen, we could show that several kinase inhibitors with targets including JAK3 and FGFR2 increased the response to EGFR inhibitors. Further, we investigated the functional impact of BCL6 upregulation in response to EGFR inhibition using siRNA-based silencing of BCL6. Proteomics profiling revealed that BCL6 inhibited transcription of multiple target genes including p53, resulting in reduced apoptosis which implicates BCL6 upregulation as a new EGFR inhibitor treatment escape mechanism. Finally, we demonstrate that combined treatment targeting both EGFR and BCL6 act synergistically in killing lung cancer cells. In conclusion, or data indicates that multiple different adaptive mechanisms may act in concert to blunt the cellular impact of EGFR inhibition, and we suggest BCL6 as a potential target for EGFR inhibitor-based combination therapy.




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Proteome and phosphoproteome analysis of brown adipocytes reveals that RICTOR loss dampens global insulin/AKT signaling [Research]

Stimulating brown adipose tissue (BAT) activity represents a promising therapy for overcoming metabolic diseases. mTORC2 is important for regulating BAT metabolism, but its downstream targets have not been fully characterized. In this study, we apply proteomics and phosphoproteomics to investigate the downstream effectors of mTORC2 in brown adipocytes. We compare wild-type controls to isogenic cells with an induced knockout of the mTORC2 subunit RICTOR (Rictor-iKO) by stimulating each with insulin for a 30-minute time course. In Rictor-iKO cells, we identify decreases to the abundance of glycolytic and de novo lipogenesis enzymes, and increases to mitochondrial proteins as well as a set of proteins known to increase upon interferon stimulation. We also observe significant differences to basal phosphorylation due to chronic RICTOR loss including decreased phosphorylation of the lipid droplet protein perilipin-1 in Rictor-iKO cells, suggesting that RICTOR could be involved with regulating basal lipolysis or droplet dynamics. Finally, we observe mild dampening of acute insulin signaling response in Rictor-iKO cells, and a subset of AKT substrates exhibiting statistically significant dependence on RICTOR.




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Investigation of inter- and intra-tumoral heterogeneity of glioblastoma using TOF-SIMS [Research]

Glioblastoma (GBM) is one of the most aggressive human cancers with a median survival of less than two years. A distinguishing pathological feature of GBM is a high degree of inter- and intratumoral heterogeneity. Intertumoral heterogeneity of GBM has been extensively investigated on genomic, methylomic, transcriptomic, proteomic and metabolomics levels, however only a few studies describe intratumoral heterogeneity due to the lack of methods allowing to analyze GBM samples with high spatial resolution. Here, we applied TOF-SIMS (Time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry) for the analysis of single cells and clinical samples such as paraffin and frozen tumor sections obtained from 57 patients. We developed a technique that allows us to simultaneously detect the distribution of proteins and metabolites in glioma tissue with 800 nm spatial resolution. Our results demonstrate that according to TOF-SIMS data glioma samples can be subdivided into clinically relevant groups and distinguished from the normal brain tissue. In addition, TOF-SIMS was able to elucidate differences between morphologically distinct regions of GBM within the same tumor. By staining GBM sections with gold-conjugated antibodies against Caveolin-1 we could visualize border between zones of necrotic and cellular tumor and subdivide glioma samples into groups characterized by different survival of the patients. Finally, we demonstrated that GBM contains cells that are characterized by high levels of Caveolin-1 protein and cholesterol. This population may partly represent a glioma stem cells. Collectively, our results show that the technique described here allows to analyze glioma tissues with a spatial resolution beyond reach of most of other omics approaches and the obtained data may be used to predict clinical behavior of the tumor.




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Characterization of signaling pathways associated with pancreatic {beta}-cell adaptive flexibility in compensation of obesity-linked diabetes in db/db mice [Research]

The onset of obesity-linked type 2 diabetes (T2D) is marked by an eventual failure in pancreatic β-cell function and mass that is no longer able to compensate for the inherent insulin resistance and increased metabolic load intrinsic to obesity. However, in a commonly used model of T2D, the db/db mouse, β-cells have an inbuilt adaptive flexibility enabling them to effectively adjust insulin production rates relative to the metabolic demand. Pancreatic β-cells from these animals have markedly reduced intracellular insulin stores, yet high rates of (pro)insulin secretion, together with a substantial increase in proinsulin biosynthesis highlighted by expanded rough endoplasmic reticulum and Golgi apparatus. However, when the metabolic overload and/or hyperglycemia is normalized, β-cells from db/db mice quickly restore their insulin stores and normalize secretory function. This demonstrates the β-cell’s adaptive flexibility and indicates that therapeutic approaches applied to encourage β-cell rest are capable of restoring endogenous β-cell function. However, mechanisms that regulate β-cell adaptive flexibility are essentially unknown. To gain deeper mechanistic insight into the molecular events underlying β-cell adaptive flexibility in db/db β-cells, we conducted a combined proteomic and post-translational modification specific proteomic (PTMomics) approach on islets from db/db mice and wild-type controls (WT) with or without prior exposure to normal glucose levels. We identified differential modifications of proteins involved in redox homeostasis, protein refolding, K48-linked deubiquitination, mRNA/protein export, focal adhesion, ERK1/2 signaling, and renin-angiotensin-aldosterone signaling, as well as sialyltransferase activity, associated with β-cell adaptive flexibility. These proteins are all related to proinsulin biosynthesis and processing, maturation of insulin secretory granules, and vesicular trafficking—core pathways involved in the adaptation of insulin production to meet metabolic demand. Collectively, this study outlines a novel and comprehensive global PTMome signaling map that highlights important molecular mechanisms related to the adaptive flexibility of β-cell function, providing improved insight into disease pathogenesis of T2D.




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Modulation of natural HLA-B*27:05 ligandome by ankylosing spondylitis-associated endoplasmic reticulum aminopeptidase 2 (ERAP2) [Research]

The human leucocyte antigen (HLA)-B*27:05 allele and the endoplasmic reticulum-resident aminopeptidases are strongly associated with ankylosing spondylitis (AS), a chronic inflammatory spondyloarthropathy. This study examined the effect of endoplasmic reticulum aminopeptidase 2 (ERAP2) in the generation of the natural HLA-B*27:05 ligandome in live cells. Complexes of HLA-B*27:05-bound peptide pools were isolated from human ERAP2-edited cell clones and the peptides were identified using high throughput mass spectrometry analyses. The relative abundance of thousand ligands was established by quantitative tandem mass spectrometry and bioinformatics analysis. The residue frequencies at different peptide position, identified in presence or absence of ERAP2, determined structural features of ligands and their interactions with specific pockets of antigen binding site of HLA-B*27:05 molecule. Sequence alignment of ligands identified with species of bacteria associated with HLA-B*27-dependent reactive arthritis was performed. In the absence of ERAP2, peptides with N-terminal basic residues, and minority canonical P2 residues are enriched in the natural ligandome. Further, alterations of residue frequencies and hydrophobicity profile at P3, P7, and P positions were detected. In addition, several ERAP2-dependent cellular peptides were highly similar to protein sequences of arthritogenic bacteria, including one human HLA-B*27:05 ligand fully conserved in a protein from Campylobacter jejuni. These findings highlight the pathogenic role of this aminopeptidase in the triggering of AS autoimmune disease.




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Characterization of Prenylated C-terminal Peptides Using a Thiopropyl-based Capture Technique and LC-MS/MS [Research]

Post-translational modifications play a critical and diverse role in regulating cellular activities. Despite their fundamentally important role in cellular function, there has been no report to date of an effective generalized approach to the targeting, extraction and characterization of the critical c-terminal regions of natively prenylated proteins. Various chemical modification and metabolic labelling strategies in cell culture have been reported. However, their applicability is limited to cell culture systems and does not allow for analysis of tissue samples. The chemical characteristics (hydrophobicity, low abundance, highly basic charge) of many of the c-terminal regions of prenylated proteins have impaired the use of standard proteomic workflows. In this context, we sought a direct approach to the problem in order to examine these proteins in tissue without the use of labelling.  Here we demonstrate that prenylated proteins can be captured on chromatographic resins functionalized with mixed disulfide functions. Protease treatment of resin-bound proteins using chymotryptic digestion revealed peptides from many known prenylated proteins. Exposure of the protease-treated resin to reducing agents and hydro organic mixtures released c-terminal peptides with intact prenyl groups along with other enzymatic modifications expected in this protein family. Database and search parameters were selected to allow for c-terminal modifications unique to these molecules such as CAAX box processing and c-terminal methylation. In summary, we present a direct approach to enrich and obtain information at a molecular level of detail about prenylation of proteins from tissue and cell extracts using high performance LCMS without the need for metabolic labeling and derivatization.




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Quantitative proteomics of human heart samples collected in vivo reveal the remodeled protein landscape of dilated left atrium without atrial fibrillation [Research]

Genetic and genomic research has greatly advanced our understanding of heart disease. Yet, comprehensive, in-depth, quantitative maps of protein expression in hearts of living humans are still lacking. Using samples obtained during valve replacement surgery in patients with mitral valve prolapse (MVP), we set out to define inter-chamber differences, the intersect of proteomic data with genetic or genomic datasets, and the impact of left atrial dilation on the proteome of patients with no history of atrial fibrillation (AF).  We collected biopsies from right atria (RA), left atria (LA) and left ventricle (LV) of seven male patients with mitral valve regurgitation with dilated LA but no history of AF. Biopsy samples were analyzed by high-resolution mass spectrometry (MS), where peptides were pre-fractionated by reverse phase high-pressure liquid chromatography prior to MS measurement on a Q-Exactive-HF Orbitrap instrument. We identified 7,314 proteins based on 130,728 peptides. Results were confirmed in an independent set of biopsies collected from three additional individuals. Comparative analysis against data from post-mortem samples showed enhanced quantitative power and confidence level in samples collected from living hearts. Our analysis, combined with data from genome wide association studies suggested candidate gene associations to MVP, identified higher abundance in ventricle for proteins associated with cardiomyopathies and revealed the dilated LA proteome, demonstrating differential representation of molecules previously associated with AF, in non-AF hearts. This is the largest dataset of cardiac protein expression from human samples collected in vivo. It provides a comprehensive resource that allows insight into molecular fingerprints of MVP and facilitates novel inferences between genomic data and disease mechanisms. We propose that over-representation of proteins in ventricle is consequent not to redundancy but to functional need, and conclude that changes in abundance of proteins known to associate with AF are not sufficient for arrhythmogenesis.




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Dysregulation of Exosome Cargo by Mutant Tau Expressed in Human-Induced Pluripotent Stem Cell (iPSC) Neurons Revealed by Proteomics Analyses [Research]

Accumulation and propagation of hyperphosphorylated tau (p-tau) is a common neuropathological hallmark associated with neurodegeneration of Alzheimer's disease (AD), frontotemporal dementia and parkinsonism linked to chromosome 17 (FTDP-17), and related tauopathies. Extracellular vesicles, specifically exosomes, have recently been demonstrated to participate in mediating tau propagation in brain. Exosomes produced by human induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)-derived neurons expressing mutant Tau (mTau), containing the P301L and V337M Tau mutations of FTDP-17, possess the ability to propagate p-tau pathology after injection into mouse brain.  To gain an understanding of the mTau exosome cargo involved in tau pathogenesis, these pathogenic exosomes were analyzed by proteomics and bioinformatics. The data showed that mTau expression dysregulates the exosome proteome to result in (1) proteins uniquely present only in mTau, and not control exosomes, (2) the absence of proteins in mTau exosomes, uniquely present in control exosomes, and (3) shared proteins which were significantly up-regulated or down-regulated in mTau compared to control exosomes. Notably, mTau exosomes (not control exosomes) contain ANP32A (also known as I1PP2A), an endogenous inhibitor of the PP2A phosphatase which regulates the phosphorylation state of p-tau.  Several of the mTau exosome-specific proteins have been shown to participate in AD mechanisms involving lysosomes, inflammation, secretases, and related processes.  Furthermore, the mTau exosomes lacked a substantial portion of proteins present in control exosomes involved in pathways of localization, vesicle transport, and protein binding functions. The shared proteins present in both mTau and control exosomes represented exosome functions of vesicle-mediated transport, exocytosis, and secretion processes. These data illustrate mTau as a dynamic regulator of the biogenesis of exosomes to result in acquisition, deletion, and up- or down-regulation of protein cargo to result in pathogenic mTau exosomes capable of in vivo propagation of p-tau neuropathology in mouse brain. 




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Proteaphagy in mammalian cells can function independent of ATG5/ATG7 [Research]

The degradation of intra- and extracellular proteins is essential in all cell types and mediated by two systems, the ubiquitin-proteasome system (UPS) and the autophagy-lysosome pathway. This study investigates the changes in autophagosomal and lysosomal proteomes upon inhibition of proteasomes by bortezomib (BTZ) or MG132. We find an increased abundance of more than 50 proteins in lysosomes of cells in which the proteasome is inhibited. Among those are dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR), ß-Catenin and 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzym-A (HMGCoA)-reductase. Since these proteins are known to be degraded by the proteasome they seem to be compensatorily delivered to the autophagosomal pathway when the proteasome is inactivated. Surprisingly, most of the proteins which show increased amounts in the lysosomes of BTZ or MG132 treated cells are proteasomal subunits. Thus an inactivated, non-functional proteasome is delivered to the autophagic pathway. Native gel electrophoresis shows that the proteasome reaches the lysosome intact and not disassembled. Adaptor proteins, which target proteasomes to autophagy, have been described in Arabidopsis, Saccharomyces and upon starvation in mammalians. However, in cell lines deficient of these proteins or their mammalian orthologues, respectively, the transfer of proteasomes to the lysosome is not impaired. Obviously, these proteins do not play a role as autophagy adaptor proteins in mammalian cells. We can also show that chaperone-mediated autophagy (CMA) does not participate in the proteasome delivery to the lysosomes. In autophagy-related (ATG)-5 and ATG7 deficient cells the delivery of inactivated proteasomes to the autophagic pathway was only partially blocked, indicating the existence of at least two different pathways by which inactivated proteasomes can be delivered to the lysosome in mammalian cells.




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Developments and Applications of Functional Protein Microarrays [Review]

Protein microarrays are crucial tools in the study of proteins in an unbiased, high-throughput manner, as they allow for characterization of up to thousands of individually purified proteins in parallel. The adaptability of this technology has enabled its use in a wide variety of applications, including the study of proteome-wide molecular interactions, analysis of post-translational modifications, identification of novel drug targets, and examination of pathogen-host interactions. In addition, the technology has also been shown to be useful in profiling antibody specificity, as well as in the discovery of novel biomarkers, especially for autoimmune diseases and cancers. In this review, we will summarize the developments that have been made in protein microarray technology in both in basic and translational research over the past decade. We will also introduce a novel membrane protein array, the GPCR-VirD array, and discuss the future directions of functional protein microarrays.




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Acquiring and Analyzing Data Independent Acquisition Proteomics Experiments without Spectrum Libraries [Perspective]

Data independent acquisition (DIA) is an attractive alternative to standard shotgun proteomics methods for quantitative experiments. However, most DIA methods require collecting exhaustive, sample-specific spectrum libraries with data dependent acquisition (DDA) to detect and quantify peptides. In addition to working with non-human samples, studies of splice junctions, sequence variants, or simply working with small sample yields can make developing DDA-based spectrum libraries impractical. Here we illustrate how to acquire, queue, and validate DIA data without spectrum libraries, and provide a workflow to efficiently generate DIA-only chromatogram libraries using gas-phase fractionation (GPF). We present best-practice methods for collecting DIA data using Orbitrap-based instruments, and develop an understanding for why DIA using an Orbitrap mass spectrometer should be approached differently than when using time-of-flight instruments. Finally, we discuss several methods for analyzing DIA data without libraries.




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Seminal Plasma Proteome as an Indicator of Sperm Dysfunction and Low Sperm Motility [Research]

Molecular mechanisms underlying sperm motility have not been fully explained, particularly in chickens. The objective was to identify seminal plasma proteins associated with chicken sperm motility by comparing the seminal plasma proteomic profile of roosters with low sperm motility (LSM, n = 4) and high sperm motility (HSM, n = 4). Using a label-free MS-based method, a total of 522 seminal plasma proteins were identified, including 386 (~74%) previously reported and 136 novel ones. A total of 70 differentially abundant proteins were defined, including 48 more-abundant, 15 less-abundant, and seven proteins unique to the LSM group (specific proteins). Key secretory proteins like less-abundant ADGRG2 and more-abundant SPINK2 in the LSM suggested that the corresponding secretory tissues played a crucial role in maintaining sperm motility. Majority (80%) of the more-abundant and five specific proteins were annotated to the cytoplasmic domain which might be a result of higher plasma membrane damage and acrosome dysfunction in LSM. Additionally, more-abundant mitochondrial proteins were detected in LSM seminal plasma associated with lower spermatozoa mitochondrial membrane potential (m) and ATP concentrations. Further studies showed that the spermatozoa might be suffering from oxidative stress, as the amount of spermatozoa reactive oxygen species (ROS) were largely enhanced, seminal malondialdehyde (MDA) concentrations were increased, and the seminal plasma total antioxidant capacity (T-AOC) were decreased. Our study provides an additional catalog of chicken seminal plasma proteome and supports the idea that seminal plasma could be as an indicator of spermatozoa physiology. More-abundant of acrosome, mitochondria and sperm cytoskeleton proteins in the seminal plasma could be a marker of sperm dysfunction and loss of motility. The degeneration of spermatozoa caused the reduced seminal T-AOC and enhanced oxidative stress might be potential determinants of low sperm motility. These results could extend our understanding of sperm motility and sperm physiology regulation.




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HIGD2A is required for assembly of the COX3 module of human mitochondrial complex IV [Research]

Assembly factors play a critical role in the biogenesis of mitochondrial respiratory chain complexes I-IV where they assist in the membrane insertion of subunits, attachment of co-factors, and stabilization of assembly intermediates. The major fraction of complexes I, III and IV are present together in large molecular structures known as respiratory chain supercomplexes. A number of assembly factors have been proposed as required for supercomplex assembly, including the hypoxia inducible gene 1 domain family member HIGD2A. Using gene-edited human cell lines and extensive steady state, translation and affinity enrichment proteomics techniques we show that loss of HIGD2A leads to defects in the de novo biogenesis of mtDNA-encoded COX3, subsequent accumulation of complex IV intermediates and turnover of COX3 partner proteins. Deletion of HIGD2A also leads to defective complex IV activity. The impact of HIGD2A loss on complex IV was not altered by growth under hypoxic conditions, consistent with its role being in basal complex IV assembly. While in the absence of HIGD2A we show that mitochondria do contain an altered supercomplex assembly, we demonstrate it to harbor a crippled complex IV lacking COX3. Our results redefine HIGD2A as a classical assembly factor required for building the COX3 module of complex IV.




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Flow-induced reorganization of laminin-integrin networks within the endothelial basement membrane uncovered by proteomics [Research]

The vessel wall is continuously exposed to hemodynamic forces generated by blood flow. Endothelial mechanosensors perceive and translate mechanical signals via cellular signaling pathways into biological processes that control endothelial development, phenotype and function. To assess the hemodynamic effects on the endothelium on a system-wide level, we applied a quantitative mass spectrometry approach combined with cell surface chemical footprinting. SILAC-labeled endothelial cells were subjected to flow-induced shear stress for 0, 24 or 48 hours, followed by chemical labeling of surface proteins using a non-membrane permeable biotin label, and analysis of the whole proteome and the cell surface proteome by LC-MS/MS analysis. These studies revealed that of the >5000 quantified proteins 104 were altered, which were highly enriched for extracellular matrix proteins and proteins involved in cell-matrix adhesion. Cell surface proteomics indicated that LAMA4 was proteolytically processed upon flow-exposure, which corresponded to the decreased LAMA4 mass observed on immunoblot. Immunofluorescence microscopy studies highlighted that the endothelial basement membrane was drastically remodeled upon flow exposure. We observed a network-like pattern of LAMA4 and LAMA5, which corresponded to the localization of laminin-adhesion molecules ITGA6 and ITGB4. Furthermore, the adaptation to flow-exposure did not affect the inflammatory response to tumor necrosis factor α, indicating that inflammation and flow trigger fundamentally distinct endothelial signaling pathways with limited reciprocity and synergy. Taken together, this study uncovers the blood flow-induced remodeling of the basement membrane and stresses the importance of the subendothelial basement membrane in vascular homeostasis.




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Organellar maps through proteomic profiling - a conceptual guide [Review]

Protein subcellular localization is an essential and highly regulated determinant of protein function. Major advances in mass spectrometry and imaging have allowed the development of powerful spatial proteomics approaches for determining protein localization at the whole cell scale. Here, a brief overview of current methods is presented, followed by a detailed discussion of organellar mapping through proteomic profiling. This relatively simple yet flexible approach is rapidly gaining popularity, due to its ability to capture the localizations of thousands of proteins in a single experiment. It can be used to generate high-resolution cell maps, and as a tool for monitoring protein localization dynamics. This review highlights the strengths and limitations of the approach, and provides guidance to designing and interpreting profiling experiments. 




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The DNA sensor cGAS is decorated by acetylation and phosphorylation modifications in the context of immune signaling [Research]

The cyclic GMP-AMP synthase (cGAS) protein is a pattern-recognition receptor of the mammalian innate immune system that is recognized as a main cytosolic sensor of pathogenic or damaged DNA. cGAS DNA binding initiates catalytic production of the second messenger, cyclic GMP-AMP, which activates the STING-TBK1-IRF3 signaling axis to induce cytokine expression. Post-translational modification (PTM) has started to be recognized as a critical component of cGAS regulation, yet the extent of these modifications remains unclear. Here, we report the identification and functional analysis of cGAS phosphorylations and acetylations in several cell types under basal and immune-stimulated conditions. cGAS was enriched by immunoaffinity purification from human primary fibroblasts prior to and after infection with herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1), as well as from immune-stimulated STING-HEK293T cells. Six phosphorylations and eight acetylations were detected, of which eight PTMs were not previously documented. PTMs were validated by parallel reaction monitoring (PRM) mass spectrometry in fibroblasts, HEK293T cells, and THP-1 macrophage-like cells. Primary sequence and structural analysis of cGAS highlighted a subset of PTM sites with elevated surface accessibility and high evolutionary sequence conservation. To assess the functional relevance of each PTM, we generated a series of single-point cGAS mutations. Stable cell lines were constructed to express cGAS with amino acid substitutions that prevented phosphorylation (Ser-to-Ala) and acetylation (Lys-to-Arg) or that mimicked the modification state (Ser-to-Asp and Lys-to-Gln). cGAS-dependent apoptotic and immune signaling activities were then assessed for each mutation. Our results show that acetyl-mimic mutations at Lys384 and Lys414 inhibit the ability of cGAS to induce apoptosis. In contrast, the Lys198 acetyl-mimic mutation increased cGAS-dependent interferon signaling when compared to the unmodified charge-mimic. Moreover, targeted PRM quantification showed that Lys198 acetylation is decreased upon infections with two herpesviruses—HSV-1 and human cytomegalovirus (HCMV), highlighting this residue as a regulatory point during virus infection.




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Immunopeptidomic analysis reveals that deamidated HLA-bound peptides arise predominantly from deglycosylated precursors [Technological Innovation and Resources]

The presentation of post-translationally modified (PTM) peptides by cell surface HLA molecules has the potential to increase the diversity of targets for surveilling T cells. Whilst immunopeptidomics studies routinely identify thousands of HLA-bound peptides from cell lines and tissue samples, in-depth analyses of the proportion and nature of peptides bearing one or more PTMs remains challenging. Here we have analyzed HLA-bound peptides from a variety of allotypes and assessed the distribution of mass spectrometry-detected PTMs, finding deamidation of asparagine or glutamine to be highly prevalent. Given that asparagine deamidation may arise either spontaneously or through enzymatic reaction, we assessed allele-specific and global motifs flanking the modified residues. Notably, we found that the N-linked glycosylation motif NX(S/T) was highly abundant across asparagine-deamidated HLA-bound peptides. This finding, demonstrated previously for a handful of deamidated T cell epitopes, implicates a more global role for the retrograde transport of nascently N-glycosylated polypeptides from the ER and their subsequent degradation within the cytosol to form HLA-ligand precursors. Chemical inhibition of Peptide:N-Glycanase (PNGase), the endoglycosidase responsible for the removal of glycans from misfolded and retrotranslocated glycoproteins, greatly reduced presentation of this subset of deamidated HLA-bound peptides. Importantly, there was no impact of PNGase inhibition on peptides not containing a consensus NX(S/T) motif. This indicates that a large proportion of HLA-I bound asparagine deamidated peptides are generated from formerly glycosylated proteins that have undergone deglycosylation via the ER-associated protein degradation (ERAD) pathway. The information herein will help train deamidation prediction models for HLA-peptide repertoires and aid in the design of novel T cell therapeutic targets derived from glycoprotein antigens.




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Proteomics of Campylobacter jejuni growth in deoxycholate reveals Cj0025c as a cystine transport protein required for wild-type human infection phenotypes [Research]

Campylobacter jejuni is a major cause of food-borne gastroenteritis. Proteomics by label-based two-dimensional liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) identified proteins associated with growth in 0.1% sodium deoxycholate (DOC, a component of gut bile salts), and system-wide validation was performed by data-independent acquisition (DIA-SWATH-MS). LC-MS/MS quantified 1326 proteins (~82% of the predicted C. jejuni proteome), of which 1104 were validated in additional biological replicates by DIA-SWATH-MS. DOC resulted in a profound proteome shift with 512 proteins showing significantly altered abundance. Induced proteins were associated with flagellar motility and antibiotic resistance; and these correlated with increased DOC motility and resistance to polymyxin B and ciprofloxacin. DOC also increased human Caco-2 cell adherence and invasion. Abundances of proteins involved in nutrient transport were altered by DOC and aligned with intracellular changes to their respective carbon sources. DOC increased intracellular levels of sulfur-containing amino acids (cysteine and methionine) and the dipeptide cystine (Cys-Cys), which also correlated with reduced resistance to oxidative stress. A DOC induced transport protein was Cj0025c, which has sequence similarity to bacterial Cys-Cys transporters. Deletion of cj0025c (cj0025c) resulted in proteome changes consistent with sulfur starvation, as well as attenuated invasion, reduced motility, atypical morphology, increased antimicrobial susceptibility and poor biofilm formation. Targeted metabolomics showed cj0025c was capable of utilizing known C. jejuni amino and organic acid substrates commensurate with wild-type. Medium Cys-Cys levels however, were maintained in cj0025c relative to wild-type. A toxic Cys-Cys mimic (selenocystine) inhibited wild-type growth, but not cj0025c. Provision of an alternate sulfur source (2 mM thiosulfate) restored cj0025c motility. Our data confirm that Cj0025c is a Cys-Cys transporter that we have named TcyP consistent with the nomenclature of homologous proteins in other species.




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Perlecan knockdown significantly alters extracellular matrix composition and organization during cartilage development [Research]

Perlecan is a critical proteoglycan found in the extracellular matrix (ECM) of cartilage. In healthy cartilage, perlecan regulates cartilage biomechanics and we previously demonstrated perlecan deficiency leads to reduced cellular and ECM stiffness in vivo. This change in mechanics may lead to the early onset osteoarthritis seen in disorders resulting from perlecan knockdown such as Schwartz-Jampel syndrome (SJS). To identify how perlecan knockdown affects the material properties of developing cartilage, we used imaging and liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) to study the ECM in a murine model of SJS, Hspg2C1532Y-Neo. Perlecan knockdown led to defective pericellular matrix formation, whereas the abundance of bulk ECM proteins, including many collagens, increased. Post-translational modifications and ultrastructure of collagens were not significantly different; however, LC-MS/MS analysis showed more protein was secreted by Hspg2C1532Y-Neo cartilage in vitro, suggesting that the incorporation of newly synthesized ECM was impaired. In addition, glycosaminoglycan deposition was atypical, which may explain the previously observed decrease in mechanics. Overall, these findings provide insight into the influence of perlecan on functional cartilage assembly and the progression of osteoarthritis in SJS.




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Pakistan: Anyone for a Deal?

1 January 2008 , Number 2

Voters will be heading for the polls in Pakistan on January 8. But however the ballots are cast, the people will not necessarily decide who will form the next government. Power is at stake, and all the players are calculating how best to retain or acquire it.

Dr Gareth Price

Senior Research Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme




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Algeria: Tired of Waiting

1 January 2008 , Number 10

At the beginning of December, media reports put the violence which had plagued Algeria since the 1990s at an all time low. Only six people had been killed in November and four of those were armed Islamist militants. Then on December 11, two car bombs exploded in the capital Algiers, killing some 67 people, including at least eleven United Nations officials in the largely destroyed offices of the UN’s High Commission for Refugees. What lies beneath this return to high-level, targeted attacks?

Claire Spencer

Head, Middle East Programme, Chatham House

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Algerian policemen and bomb experts in front of the destroyed building of the Supreme Court, Algiers. One explosion targeted the offices of the UN refugee agency in Algiers, while the other bomb was triggered near the Algerian Supreme Court building.




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Iraq Tribunal: US Pulling Out

1 May 2008 , Number 3

Rowdy sessions of the Iraq High Tribunal attracted sensational daily news coverage while Saddam Hussein was being tried. However, following his grim execution in December 2006, coverage all but evaporated. The foreign press and most western monitors packed their bags and left, and television reporting in Iraq dwindled. Now even the United States Department of Justice, which initially provided key financial and political support, is quietly withdrawing its advisers. So what is happening at the Tribunal and why are the Americans pulling out?

Sonya Sceats

Associate Fellow, International Law Programme




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International Arms Trade Treaty: Gun Control

1 October 2008 , Number 11

Nuclear, biological or chemical weapons and acts of terror may make the headlines, but it is conventional arms that take the lives in large numbers; maybe around a thousand a day. This month, a United Nations committee will try to find a way to limit the arms trade with a new treaty. For those facing the barrel of a gun, it cannot come a moment too soon.

Paul Cornish

Head, International Security Programme, Chatham House




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Egypt and the Gulf: Allies and Rivals

20 April 2020

There is and will continue to be an edge of rivalry in Egypt’s relations with the dominant Gulf Arab powers. This paper will focus primarily on the Egypt–Gulf relationship during the Sisi era.

David Butter

Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme

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Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Mohammed bin Zayed is welcomed by Egypt’s President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi in Cairo on 19 June 2017. Photo: Getty Images.

Summary

  • Egypt and the Gulf Arab region have long been important poles of political, military economic and cultural power and influence in the Middle East. Under the presidency of Gamal Abdel-Nasser, Egypt was the dominant force in the region, but the balance of power shifted towards the Gulf in the 1970s, as Egypt’s economy faltered and the Gulf Arab states reaped the benefits of resurgent oil prices in the wake of the 1973 OPEC embargo. The popular uprising against President Hosni Mubarak’s regime in 2011 elicited divergent reactions in the Gulf. The leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were concerned about the risks of a movement for revolutionary change spreading to their own region, while Qatar saw an opportunity to strengthen its regional role through supporting the Muslim Brotherhood.
  • The forcible removal of Egypt’s elected president, Mohammed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood, in July 2013 by the army commander, Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi, ushered in a new era in Egypt–Gulf relations. The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait quickly mobilized financial support for the new administration. Abu Dhabi’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Zayed, known for his intense opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood, signalled his strong support for the new regime by visiting Cairo only weeks after hundreds of Morsi’s supporters were killed.
  • Between July 2013 and August 2016, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait provided about $30 billion in aid to the Sisi regime through placing deposits with the Central Bank of Egypt and supplying petroleum products as grants. The UAE sought to link its aid to a programme of economic reforms, but the Egyptian government finally decided in mid-2016 to negotiate a loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Since the signing of the $12 billion loan with the IMF in November 2016, Egypt has no longer been reliant on Gulf Arab financial support, although some of the deposits placed previously have been rolled over on reaching maturity.
  • During the Sisi era, Egypt has benefited from its economic links to the Gulf over a wide spectrum of activities. The UAE and Saudi Arabia in particular are increasingly important export markets for Egyptian companies, as well as major sources of foreign direct investment. The financial aid provided by Sisi’s Gulf allies in 2013–16 has also helped to underpin the surge in Egypt’s arms procurement. Another critical element in the economic relationship is the presence of millions of expatriate Egyptian workers in the Gulf, who are responsible for a large share of the annual inflow of about $25 billion in remittances.
  • Egypt’s most important political relationships in the Gulf have been with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Ties with Saudi Arabia were affected by the death of King Abdullah at the start of 2015 and by the subsequent emergence of Mohammed bin Salman as the most influential figure in the kingdom. During a visit by King Abdullah’s successor, King Salman, to Cairo in April 2016, Egypt announced a decision to cede sovereignty over two Red Sea islands, Tiran and Sanafir, to Saudi Arabia. Relations soured after this decision was challenged in the Egyptian courts, but the issue was resolved in favour of the deal. Egypt played no active role in the Saudi- and UAE-led intervention in Yemen, but joined its two principal Gulf allies and Bahrain in imposing sanctions on Qatar in mid-2017. 
  • Relations between Sisi and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed have remained close throughout the past seven years. The UAE and Egypt have been among the most important external supporters of the Libyan National Army, commanded by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, although they have not created an overt alliance in this arena. Egypt has adopted a more prominent diplomatic profile in relation to Libya, while the UAE has been more deeply engaged militarily, to judge from assessments by the panel of experts tasked to monitor adherence to the UN embargo on the supply of weapons to Libya. The relationship between the Egyptian and Emirati leaders is underpinned by a strong shared ideological antipathy to the Muslim Brotherhood.
  • Following the completion of the IMF programme in 2019, the Egyptian economy is in a much stronger position than it was in the early period of Sisi’s rule, even though this has exacted a harsh toll on the 60 per cent of the population classified by the World Bank as poor or vulnerable. There is no pressing need for direct financial support from the Gulf, but Egypt still depends on economic linkages through trade, investment, tourism and remittances. In this respect, the balance of power has tilted marginally back towards Egypt. However, Egypt is still beset by deep internal political contradictions, as reflected in the regime’s heavy reliance on coercion and repression, and the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks – of which the coronavirus pandemic is a prime example.




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Economic Crisis and the Delayed Arrival of a New President: Transition Trauma

1 November 2008 , Number 1

The new American president will not be inaugurated until January 20. He will certainly face the most difficult economic conditions since Franklin Roosevelt entered the White House in March 1933. The politics of presidential transition – in this year, as seventy-six years ago – seem likely only to exacerbate the global crisis.

John Dumbrell

Professor of Government, Durham University




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Regional Diplomacy in the Middle East: Iran is on a Roll

1 January 2007 , Number 2

For all the cynicism it has evoked, the United States’ Iraq Study Group report might still lead to a regional diplomatic process, which could ease Iran and the US into negotiations. A grand bargain is very unlikely, but with Washington at the table, there might be enough advantage for both sides in a gradual process to halt the current slide towards a deeper confrontation.

Richard Dalton

was the British Ambssador to Iran until last March




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Calculations for an Air Attack on Iran: Bombs Away?

1 March 2007 , Number 1

The Iranian nuclear site at Natanz is already one of the most protected places on earth, and the apparently never-ending diplomatic minuet over Iran’s nuclear activities may be no more than Tehran stringing out negotiations until its nuclear protection programme is complete.

Andrew Brookes

Former Royal Air Force bomber pilot

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An Iranian man carries a placard in support of nuclear technology during a rally to mark the 28th anniversary of the Islamic revolution




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Nigerian Elections: Big Men and Ballot Boxes

1 March 2007 , Number 6

The minister paused, leaned forward and fiddled with his cufflinks, ‘It wasn’t about whether the election was rigged or not,’ he said. ‘The truth is, everybody rigged it. We just rigged it better than them.’ Does the next Nigerian presidential election in April promise anything different?

Sola Tayo

Journalist, HARDtalk, BBC News

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Supporters of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party wave banners and posters




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Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Terrorism: Tomorrow's Threat

1 March 2007 , Number 11

In early November, the retiring head of Britain’s Security Service MI5, Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, warned that the danger of a terror attack was ‘serious’ and ‘growing’, with as many as thirty plots underway. Traditional terrorism of the sort practised by the Irish Republican Army has given way to the possibility, if not the expectation, that groups such as Al Qaeda might make use of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons and materials in an attack in Britain. So what are the dangers?

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Syrian Special Forces in gas masks, Saudi Arabia 1990




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Breaking the Cycle of Violence: Transitional Justice for the Victims of ISIS in Syria

28 April 2020

This paper aims to assist the region’s local authorities, and their key foreign backers, in understanding how transitional justice can provide alternative avenues for holding local ISIS members to account while contributing to the healing of communities.

Haid Haid

Senior Consulting Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme

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A fighter with the Syrian Democratic Forces monitors prisoners accused of being affiliated with ISIS, at a prison in the northeastern Syrian city of Hassakeh on 25 October 2019. Photo: Getty Images.

Summary

  • Following the territorial defeat of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in northeastern Syria, the Kurdish-led autonomous administration in the region is now grappling with the task of quickly dealing with thousands of the group’s detained members while bringing justice to their victims. To that end, local authorities are focusing on the use of counterterrorism laws and courts to charge captured ISIS members and determine their guilt accordingly.
  • The piecemeal approach to justice is deeply flawed, and raises particular concerns about due process. No precise instruments exist to determine the personal responsibility of ISIS individuals for specific crimes, or for their role in war crimes committed by the group. In any event, the scale of the crimes and the number of victims – as well as severe shortages of resources and workers – make dispensation of justice extremely difficult through the traditional legal system.
  • Not all detained ISIS members receive prison sentences. Individuals who did not hold senior roles in the group’s apparatus and are not accused of ‘major’ crimes (in practice, largely defined as fighting for ISIS and murder) are being released under limited reconciliation deals with tribal leaders. But the involvement of local community leaders in those efforts is not enough to ensure positive results. Many victims are upset at seeing ISIS members walk free without even admitting their guilt publicly or apologizing for the pain they caused.
  • To overcome the limitations of the current, counterterrorism-focused framework, a ‘transitional justice’ approach could provide judicial and non-judicial instruments to establish accountability for ISIS crimes and reduce community resistance to the reintegration of group members. A combination of non-judicial mechanisms such as truth commissions, missing persons’ committees, and reparations and victim-healing programmes could play a vital role in providing ISIS victims with a sense of justice while contributing to peacebuilding and stability.
  • Ignoring the urgency of developing a long-term plan to serve justice and contribute to community healing will almost certainly allow ISIS to continue to prevent the recovery and development of northeastern Syria. This, in turn, risks undermining the stability of the country and the region at large.




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It's a man's world: carnal spectatorship and dissonant masculinities in Islamic State videos

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Manni Crone

Islamic State videos have often been associated with savage violence and beheadings. An in-depth scrutiny however reveals another striking feature: that female bodies are absent, blurred or mute. Examining a few Islamic State videos in depth, the article suggests that the invisibility of women in tandem with the ostentatious visibility of male bodies enable gendered and embodied spectators to indulge in homoerotic as well as heterosexual imaginaries. In contrast to studies on visual security and online radicalization which assert that images affect an audience, this article focuses on the interaction between video and audience and argues that spectators are not only rational and emotional but embodied and gendered as well. Islamic State videos do not only attract western foreign fighters through religious–ideological rhetoric or emotional impact but also through gendered forms of pleasure and desire that enable carnal imagination and identification. The article probes the analytical purchase of carnal aesthetics and spectatorship.




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Social media and the visibility of horrific violence

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Constance Duncombe

Images are central to social media communication. Billions of images are shared across different social media platforms every day: photos, cartoons, GIFs and short video clips are exchanged by users, facilitating or framing discourse on participatory sites such as Twitter, Facebook and Instagram. Many of these images depict events of extreme violence, which circulate uninhibited by the conventional constraints associated with traditional news media censorship. A question arises here as to how such images mobilize public and policy-making responses to atrocities. This article examines the political dynamics of violent social media images. I argue that the particular qualities of social media can play an important role in how the digital visibility of horrific violence influences policy-making as a response to such atrocities. There is an important connection between the properties of social media platforms that allow user images to reach a global audience in real time and the emotional responses that this level of circulation generates. In turn, the pressure created by events made globally visible through the circulation of violent images and the audience responses to those images puts governments in a position where they are forced to act, which has significant implications for policy-making.




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Horror, apocalypse and world politics (free)

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Tim Aistrope and Stefanie Fishel

World politics generates a long list of anxiety-inspiring scenarios that threaten to unravel everyday life with sudden and violent destruction. From total war and the concentration camps, through nuclear firestorms, global pandemics and climate disaster, the diabolical violence of the recent past and conceivable future is the stuff of nightmares. Yet International Relations scholars and practitioners are often criticized for being disconnected from the human realities of international calamity. The challenge for both is to engage world politics in a way that foregrounds the human consequences of extreme violence and depravation. In this article, we explore these difficult experiences through popular culture representations of the apocalypse, a subject of intense interest for researchers in a discipline where global destruction is a distinct possibility. However, we take a different route by engaging the apocalypse through the horror genre, the one place where human suffering is explicitly accentuated. We argue that the horror genre is at once an access point for ethical engagement with the human consequences of extreme violence and a complex terrain where dark imaginings can be politically loaded, culturally specific and ethically ambiguous.




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Soundscapes of war: the audio-visual performance of war by Shi'a militias in Iraq and Syria

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Helle Malmvig

This article sets out to bring sound and music to the field of visual studies in International Relations. It argues that IR largely has approached the visual field as if it was without sound; neglecting how audial landscapes frame and direct our interpretation of moving imagery. Sound and music contribute to making imagery intelligible to us, we ‘hear the pictures’ often without noticing. The audial can for instance articulate a visual absence, or blast visual signs, bring out certain emotional stages or subjects’ inner life. Audial frames steer us in distinct directions, they can mute the cries of the wounded in war, or amplify the sounds of joy of soldiers shooting in the air. To bring the audial and the visual analytically and empirically together, the article therefore proposes four key analytical themes: 1) the audial–visual frame, 2) point of view/point of audition, 3) modes of audio-visual synchronization and 4) aesthetics moods. These are applied to a study of ‘war music videos’ in Iraq and Syria made and circulated by Shi'a militias currently fighting there. Such war music videos, it is suggested, are not just artefacts of popular culture, but have become integral parts of how warfare is practiced today, and one that is shared by soldiers in the US and Europe. War music videos are performing war, just as they shape how war is known by spectators and participants alike.