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Covid-19: Number of Germans infected could be 10 times higher than official estimates

The number of people in Germany infected with covid-19, could be 10 times higher than official government estimates, according to a new study by University of Bonn researchers.1The Heinsberg study is...




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Covid-19: Health needs of sex workers are being sidelined, warn agencies

Agencies have criticised the lack of action to protect the health needs of sex workers during the pandemic, with the English Collective of Prostitutes (ECP) warning of a “ticking time bomb of health...




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Vitamin C in Human Health and Disease: Effects, Mechanisms of Action, and New Guidance on Intake




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Myocardial Blood Flow and Myocardial Flow Reserve After Cardiac Transplantation: Mistakes in Diagnostic Value and Prognosis




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Reply: Clarifying the Utility of Myocardial Blood Flow and Myocardial Flow Reserve After Cardiac Transplantation




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Human Radiation Dosimetry for Orally and Intravenously Administered 18F-FDG

Intravenous access is difficult in some patients referred for 18F-FDG PET imaging. Extravasation at the injection site and accumulation in central catheters can lead to limited tumor 18F-FDG uptake, erroneous quantitation, and significant image artifacts. In this study, we compared the human biodistribution and dosimetry for 18F-FDG after oral and intravenous administrations sequentially in the same subjects to ascertain the dosimetry and potential suitability of orally administered 18F-FDG as an alternative to intravenous administration. We also compared our detailed intravenous 18F-FDG dosimetry with older dosimetry data. Methods: Nine healthy volunteers (6 male and 3 female; aged 19–32 y) underwent PET/CT imaging after oral and intravenous administration of 18F-FDG. Identical preparation and imaging protocols (except administration route) were used for oral and intravenous studies. During each imaging session, 9 whole-body PET scans were obtained at 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 120, and 240 min after 18F-FDG administration (370 ± 16 MBq). Source organ contours drawn using CT were overlaid onto registered PET images to extract time–activity curves. Time-integrated activity coefficients derived from time–activity curves were given as input to OLINDA/EXM for dose calculations. Results: Blood uptake after orally administered 18F-FDG peaked at 45–50 min after ingestion. The oral-to-intravenous ratios of 18F-FDG uptake for major organs at 45 min were 1.07 ± 0.24 for blood, 0.94 ± 0.39 for heart wall, 0.47 ± 0.12 for brain, 1.25 ± 0.18 for liver, and 0.84 ± 0.24 for kidneys. The highest organ-absorbed doses (μGy/MBq) after oral 18F-FDG administration were observed for urinary bladder (75.9 ± 17.2), stomach (48.4 ± 14.3), and brain (29.4 ± 5.1), and the effective dose was significantly higher (20%) than after intravenous administration (P = 0.002). Conclusion: 18F-FDG has excellent bioavailability after oral administration, but peak organ activities occur later than after intravenous injection. These data suggest PET at 2 h after oral 18F-FDG administration should yield images that are comparable in biodistribution to conventional clinical images acquired 1 h after injection. Oral 18F-FDG is a palatable alternative to intravenous 18F-FDG when venous access is problematic.




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Predictive Value of 18F-Florbetapir and 18F-FDG PET for Conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer Dementia

The present study examined the predictive values of amyloid PET, 18F-FDG PET, and nonimaging predictors (alone and in combination) for development of Alzheimer dementia (AD) in a large population of patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Methods: The study included 319 patients with MCI from the Alzheimer Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database. In a derivation dataset (n = 159), the following Cox proportional-hazards models were constructed, each adjusted for age and sex: amyloid PET using 18F-florbetapir (pattern expression score of an amyloid-β AD conversion–related pattern, constructed by principle-components analysis); 18F-FDG PET (pattern expression score of a previously defined 18F-FDG–based AD conversion–related pattern, constructed by principle-components analysis); nonimaging (functional activities questionnaire, apolipoprotein E, and mini-mental state examination score); 18F-FDG PET + amyloid PET; amyloid PET + nonimaging; 18F-FDG PET + nonimaging; and amyloid PET + 18F-FDG PET + nonimaging. In a second step, the results of Cox regressions were applied to a validation dataset (n = 160) to stratify subjects according to the predicted conversion risk. Results: On the basis of the independent validation dataset, the 18F-FDG PET model yielded a significantly higher predictive value than the amyloid PET model. However, both were inferior to the nonimaging model and were significantly improved by the addition of nonimaging variables. The best prediction accuracy was reached by combining 18F-FDG PET, amyloid PET, and nonimaging variables. The combined model yielded 5-y free-of-conversion rates of 100%, 64%, and 24% for the low-, medium- and high-risk groups, respectively. Conclusion: 18F-FDG PET, amyloid PET, and nonimaging variables represent complementary predictors of conversion from MCI to AD. Especially in combination, they enable an accurate stratification of patients according to their conversion risks, which is of great interest for patient care and clinical trials.




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Multimodality Imaging of Inflammation and Ventricular Remodeling in Pressure-Overload Heart Failure

Inflammation contributes to ventricular remodeling after myocardial ischemia, but its role in nonischemic heart failure is poorly understood. Local tissue inflammation is difficult to assess serially during pathogenesis. Although 18F-FDG accumulates in inflammatory leukocytes and thus may identify inflammation in the myocardial microenvironment, it remains unclear whether this imaging technique can isolate diffuse leukocytes in pressure-overload heart failure. We aimed to evaluate whether inflammation with 18F-FDG can be serially imaged in the early stages of pressure-overload–induced heart failure and to compare the time course with functional impairment assessed by cardiac MRI. Methods: C57Bl6/N mice underwent transverse aortic constriction (TAC) (n = 22), sham surgery (n = 12), or coronary ligation as an inflammation-positive control (n = 5). MRI assessed ventricular geometry and contractile function at 2 and 8 d after TAC. Immunostaining identified the extent of inflammatory leukocyte infiltration early in pressure overload. 18F-FDG PET scans were acquired at 3 and 7 d after TAC, under ketamine-xylazine anesthesia to suppress cardiomyocyte glucose uptake. Results: Pressure overload evoked rapid left ventricular dilation compared with sham (end-systolic volume, day 2: 40.6 ± 10.2 μL vs. 23.8 ± 1.7 μL, P < 0.001). Contractile function was similarly impaired (ejection fraction, day 2: 40.9% ± 9.7% vs. 59.2% ± 4.4%, P < 0.001). The severity of contractile impairment was proportional to histology-defined myocardial macrophage density on day 8 (r = –0.669, P = 0.010). PET imaging identified significantly higher left ventricular 18F-FDG accumulation in TAC mice than in sham mice on day 3 (10.5 ± 4.1 percentage injected dose [%ID]/g vs. 3.8 ± 0.9 %ID/g, P < 0.001) and on day 7 (7.8 ± 3.7 %ID/g vs. 3.0 ± 0.8 %ID/g, P = 0.006), though the efficiency of cardiomyocyte suppression was variable among TAC mice. The 18F-FDG signal correlated with ejection fraction (r = –0.75, P = 0.01) and ventricular volume (r = 0.75, P < 0.01). Western immunoblotting demonstrated a 60% elevation of myocardial glucose transporter 4 expression in the left ventricle at 8 d after TAC, indicating altered glucose metabolism. Conclusion: TAC induces rapid changes in left ventricular geometry and contractile function, with a parallel modest infiltration of inflammatory macrophages. Metabolic remodeling overshadows inflammatory leukocyte signal using 18F-FDG PET imaging. More selective inflammatory tracers are requisite to identify the diffuse local inflammation in pressure overload.




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Preoperative Localization of Adenomas in Primary Hyperparathyroidism: The Value of 11C-Choline PET/CT in Patients with Negative or Discordant Findings on Ultrasonography and 99mTc-Sestamibi SPECT/CT

We aimed to assess the value of 11C-choline PET in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism and negative or discordant results on 99mTc-sestamibi imaging and neck ultrasound. Methods: Eighty-seven such patients were assessed and subsequently underwent parathyroidectomy. PET/CT image data were analyzed semiquantitatively using SUVmax and SUV ratios (target to contralateral thyroid gland and carotid artery). A positive PET/CT result was defined as focal uptake significantly higher than regular thyroid tissue. Ectopic foci were also considered positive. Inconclusive PET/CT cases were defined as a lesion with uptake equal to normal thyroid tissue. If no prominent or ectopic uptake was detectable, the PET/CT result was considered negative. Results: When dichotomizing the 11C-choline PET/CT imaging results by defining lesions with both positive and inconclusive uptake as positive, we found 84 of 92 lesions (91.3%) to have true-positive uptake whereas 8 lesions (8.7%) had false-positive uptake. One lesion showed false-negative uptake; the sensitivity was 98.8%. The corresponding positive predictive value for lesions was 91.3%. The mean SUVmax was 6.15 ± 4.92 in 72 lesions with positive uptake (70 patients) and 2.96 ± 2.32 in 20 lesions with inconclusive uptake (18 patients). Conclusion: These results in a large group of patients indicate that 11C-choline PET/CT is a promising tool for parathyroid adenoma localization when ultrasound and 99mTc-sestamibi imaging yield negative or discordant results.




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18F-Fluorocholine PET/CT in Primary Hyperparathyroidism: Superior Diagnostic Performance to Conventional Scintigraphic Imaging for Localization of Hyperfunctioning Parathyroid Glands

Primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) is a common endocrine disorder, definitive treatment usually requiring surgical removal of the offending parathyroid glands. To perform focused surgical approaches, it is necessary to localize all hyperfunctioning glands. The aim of the study was to compare the efficiency of established conventional scintigraphic imaging modalities with emerging 18F-fluorocholine PET/CT imaging in preoperative localization of hyperfunctioning parathyroid glands in a larger series of PHPT patients. Methods: In total, 103 patients with PHPT were imaged preoperatively with 18F-fluorocholine PET/CT and conventional scintigraphic imaging methods, consisting of 99mTc-sestamibi SPECT/CT, 99mTc-sestamibi/pertechnetate subtraction imaging, and 99mTc-sestamibi dual-phase imaging. The results of histologic analysis, as well as intact parathyroid hormone and serum calcium values obtained 1 d after surgery and on follow-up, served as the standard of truth for evaluation of imaging results. Results: Diagnostic performance of 18F-fluorocholine PET/CT surpassed conventional scintigraphic methods (separately or combined), with calculated sensitivity of 92% for PET/CT and 39%–56% for conventional imaging (65% for conventional methods combined) in the entire patient group. Subgroup analysis, differentiating single and multiple hyperfunctioning parathyroid glands, showed PET/CT to be most valuable in the group with multiple hyperfunctioning glands, with sensitivity of 88%, whereas conventional imaging was significantly inferior, with sensitivity of 22%–34% (44% combined). Conclusion: 18F-fluorocholine PET/CT is a diagnostic modality superior to conventional imaging methods in patients with PHPT, allowing for accurate preoperative localization.




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Appropriate Use Criteria for Imaging Evaluation of Biochemical Recurrence of Prostate Cancer After Definitive Primary Treatment




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Prospective Evaluation of 18F-DCFPyL PET/CT in Biochemically Recurrent Prostate Cancer in an Academic Center: A Focus on Disease Localization and Changes in Management

18F-DCFPyL (2-(3-{1-carboxy-5-[(6-18F-fluoropyridine-3-carbonyl)-amino]-pentyl}-ureido)-pentanedioic acid) is a promising PET radiopharmaceutical targeting prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA). We present our experience with this single-academic-center prospective study evaluating the positivity rate of 18F-DCFPyL PET/CT in patients with biochemical recurrence (BCR) of prostate cancer (PC). Methods: We prospectively enrolled 72 men (52–91 y old; mean ± SD, 71.5 ± 7.2) with BCR after primary definitive treatment with prostatectomy (n = 42) or radiotherapy (n = 30). The presence of lesions compatible with PC was evaluated by 2 independent readers. Fifty-nine patients had scans concurrent with at least one other conventional scan: bone scanning (24), CT (21), MR (20), 18F-fluciclovine PET/CT (18), or 18F-NaF PET (14). Findings from 18F-DCFPyL PET/CT were compared with those from other modalities. Impact on patient management based on 18F-DCFPyL PET/CT was recorded from clinical chart review. Results: 18F-DCFPyL PET/CT had an overall positivity rate of 85%, which increased with higher prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels (ng/mL): 50% (PSA < 0.5), 69% (0.5 ≤ PSA < 1), 100% (1 ≤ PSA < 2), 91% (2 ≤ PSA < 5), and 96% (PSA ≥ 5). 18F-DCFPyL PET detected more lesions than conventional imaging. For anatomic imaging, 20 of 41 (49%) CT or MRI scans had findings congruent with 18F-DCFPyL, whereas 18F-DCFPyL PET was positive in 17 of 41 (41%) cases with negative CT or MRI findings. For bone imaging, 26 of 38 (68%) bone or 18F-NaF PET scans were congruent with 18F-DCFPyL PET, whereas 18F-DCFPyL PET localized bone lesions in 8 of 38 (21%) patients with negative results on bone or 18F-NaF PET scans. In 8 of 18 (44%) patients, 18F-fluciclovine PET had located the same lesions as did 18F-DCFPyL PET, whereas 5 of 18 (28%) patients with negative 18F-fluciclovine findings had positive 18F-DCFPyL PET findings and 1 of 18 (6%) patients with negative 18F-DCFPyL findings had uptake in the prostate bed on 18F-fluciclovine PET. In the remaining 4 of 18 (22%) patients, 18F-DCFPyL and 18F-fluciclovine scans showed different lesions. Lastly, 43 of 72 (60%) patients had treatment changes after 18F-DCFPyL PET and, most noticeably, 17 of these patients (24% total) had lesion localization only on 18F-DCFPyL PET, despite negative results on conventional imaging. Conclusion: 18F-DCFPyL PET/CT is a promising diagnostic tool in the work-up of biochemically recurrent PC, given the high positivity rate as compared with Food and Drug Administration–approved currently available imaging modalities and its impact on clinical management in 60% of patients.




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Head-to-Head Comparison of 68Ga-PSMA-11 with 18F-PSMA-1007 PET/CT in Staging Prostate Cancer Using Histopathology and Immunohistochemical Analysis as a Reference Standard

18F-PSMA-1007 is a novel prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA)–based radiopharmaceutical for imaging prostate cancer (PCa). The aim of this study was to compare the diagnostic accuracy of 18F-PSMA-1007 with 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT in the same patients presenting with newly diagnosed intermediate- or high-risk PCa. Methods: Sixteen patients with intermediate- or high-risk PCa underwent 18F-PSMA-1007 and 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT within 15 d. PET findings were compared between the 2 radiotracers and with reference-standard pathologic specimens obtained from radical prostatectomy. The Cohen -coefficient was used to assess the concordance between 18F-PSMA-1007 and 68Ga-PSMA-11 for detection of intraprostatic lesions. The McNemar test was used to assess agreement between intraprostatic PET/CT findings and histopathologic findings. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were reported for each radiotracer. SUVmax was measured for all lesions, and tumor-to-background activity was calculated. Areas under receiver-operating-characteristic curves were calculated for discriminating diseased from nondiseased prostate segments, and optimal SUV cutoffs were calculated using the Youden index for each radiotracer. Results: PSMA-avid lesions in the prostate were identified in all 16 patients with an almost perfect concordance between the 2 tracers ( ranged from 0.871 to 1). Aside from the dominant intraprostatic lesion, similarly detected by both radiotracers, a second less intense positive focus was detected in 4 patients only with 18F-PSMA-1007. Three of these secondary foci were confirmed as Gleason grade 3 lesions, whereas the fourth was shown on pathologic examination to represent chronic prostatitis. Conclusion: This pilot study showed that both 18F-PSMA-1007 and 68Ga-PSMA-11 identify all dominant prostatic lesions in patients with intermediate- or high-risk PCa at staging. 18F-PSMA-1007, however, may detect additional low-grade lesions of limited clinical relevance.




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First-in-Humans Imaging with 89Zr-Df-IAB22M2C Anti-CD8 Minibody in Patients with Solid Malignancies: Preliminary Pharmacokinetics, Biodistribution, and Lesion Targeting

Immunotherapy is becoming the mainstay for treatment of a variety of malignancies, but only a subset of patients responds to treatment. Tumor-infiltrating CD8-positive (CD8+) T lymphocytes play a central role in antitumor immune responses. Noninvasive imaging of CD8+ T cells may provide new insights into the mechanisms of immunotherapy and potentially predict treatment response. We are studying the safety and utility of 89Zr-IAB22M2C, a radiolabeled minibody against CD8+ T cells, for targeted imaging of CD8+ T cells in patients with cancer. Methods: The initial dose escalation phase of this first-in-humans prospective study included 6 patients (melanoma, 1; lung, 4; hepatocellular carcinoma, 1). Patients received approximately 111 MBq (3 mCi) of 89Zr-IAB22M2C (at minibody mass doses of 0.2, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 5, or 10 mg) as a single dose, followed by PET/CT scans at approximately 1–2, 6–8, 24, 48, and 96–144 h after injection. Biodistribution in normal organs, lymph nodes, and lesions was evaluated. In addition, serum samples were obtained at approximately 5, 30, and 60 min and later at the times of imaging. Patients were monitored for safety during infusion and up to the last imaging time point. Results: 89Zr-IAB22M2C infusion was well tolerated, with no immediate or delayed side effects observed after injection. Serum clearance was typically biexponential and dependent on the mass of minibody administered. Areas under the serum time–activity curve, normalized to administered activity, ranged from 1.3 h/L for 0.2 mg to 8.9 h/L for 10 mg. Biodistribution was dependent on the minibody mass administered. The highest uptake was always in spleen, followed by bone marrow. Liver uptake was more pronounced with higher minibody masses. Kidney uptake was typically low. Prominent uptake was seen in multiple normal lymph nodes as early as 2 h after injection, peaking by 24–48 h after injection. Uptake in tumor lesions was seen on imaging as early as 2 h after injection, with most 89Zr-IAB22M2C–positive lesions detectable by 24 h. Lesions were visualized early in patients receiving treatment, with SUV ranging from 5.85 to 22.8 in 6 target lesions. Conclusion: 89Zr-IAB22M2C imaging is safe and has favorable kinetics for early imaging. Biodistribution suggests successful targeting of CD8+ T-cell–rich tissues. The observed targeting of tumor lesions suggests this may be informative for CD8+ T-cell accumulation within tumors. Further evaluation is under way.




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Diagnostic Accuracy of PET Tracers for the Differentiation of Tumor Progression from Treatment-Related Changes in High-Grade Glioma: A Systematic Review and Metaanalysis

Posttreatment high-grade gliomas are usually monitored with contrast-enhanced MRI, but its diagnostic accuracy is limited as it cannot adequately distinguish between true tumor progression and treatment-related changes. According to recent Response Assessment in Neuro-Oncology recommendations, PET overcomes this limitation. However, it is currently unknown which tracer yields the best results. Therefore, a systematic review and metaanalysis were performed to compare the diagnostic accuracy of the different PET tracers in differentiating tumor progression from treatment-related changes in high-grade glioma patients. Methods: PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase were searched systematically. Study selection, data extraction, and quality assessment were performed independently by 2 authors. Metaanalysis was performed using a bivariate random-effects model when at least 5 studies were included. Results: The systematic review included 39 studies (11 tracers). 18F-FDG (12 studies, 171 lesions) showed a pooled sensitivity and specificity of 84% (95% confidence interval, 72%–92%) and 84% (95% confidence interval, 69%–93%), respectively. O-(2-18F-fluoroethyl)-l-tyrosine (18F-FET) (7 studies, 172 lesions) demonstrated a sensitivity of 90% (95% confidence interval, 81%–95%) and specificity of 85% (95% confidence interval, 71%–93%). For S-11C-methyl)-l-methionine (11C-MET) (8 studies, 151 lesions), sensitivity was 93% (95% confidence interval, 80%–98%) and specificity was 82% (95% confidence interval, 68%–91%). The numbers of included studies for the other tracers were too low to combine, but sensitivity and specificity ranged between 93%–100% and 0%–100%, respectively, for 18F-FLT; 85%–100% and 72%–100%, respectively, for 3,4-dihydroxy-6-18F-fluoro-l-phenylalanine (18F-FDOPA); and 100% and 70%–88%, respectively, for 11C-choline. Conclusion: 18F-FET and 11C-MET, both amino-acid tracers, showed a comparably higher sensitivity than 18F-FDG in the differentiation between tumor progression and treatment-related changes in high-grade glioma patients. The evidence for other tracers is limited; thus, 18F-FET and 11C-MET are preferred when available. Our results support the incorporation of amino-acid PET tracers for the treatment evaluation of high-grade gliomas.




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Congressional Briefing: Diagnostic Imaging and Alzheimer Disease




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A Critical Insulin TCR Contact Residue Selects High-Affinity and Pathogenic Insulin-Specific T Cells

Type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune-mediated disease that culminates in the targeted destruction of insulin-producing β-cells. CD4 responses in NOD mice are dominated by insulin epitope B:9-23 (InsB9-23) specificity, and mutation of the key T-cell receptor (TCR) contact residue within the epitope prevents diabetes development. However, it is not clear how insulin self-antigen controls the selection of autoimmune and regulatory T cells (Tregs). Here we demonstrate that mutation of insulin epitope results in escape of highly pathogenic T cells. We observe an increase in antigen reactivity, clonality, and pathogenicity of insulin-specific T cells that develop in the absence of cognate antigen. Using a single TCR system, we demonstrate that Treg development is greatly diminished in mice with the Y16A mutant epitope. Collectively, these results suggest that the tyrosine residue at position 16 is necessary to constrain TCR reactivity for InsB9-23 by both limiting the development of pathogenic T cells and supporting the selection of Tregs.




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{beta}-Cell Stress Shapes CTL Immune Recognition of Preproinsulin Signal Peptide by Posttranscriptional Regulation of Endoplasmic Reticulum Aminopeptidase 1

The signal peptide of preproinsulin is a major source for HLA class I autoantigen epitopes implicated in CD8 T cell (CTL)–mediated β-cell destruction in type 1 diabetes (T1D). Among them, the 10-mer epitope located at the C-terminal end of the signal peptide was found to be the most prevalent in patients with recent-onset T1D. While the combined action of signal peptide peptidase and endoplasmic reticulum (ER) aminopeptidase 1 (ERAP1) is required for processing of the signal peptide, the mechanisms controlling signal peptide trimming and the contribution of the T1D inflammatory milieu on these mechanisms are unknown. Here, we show in human β-cells that ER stress regulates ERAP1 gene expression at posttranscriptional level via the IRE1α/miR-17-5p axis and demonstrate that inhibition of the IRE1α activity impairs processing of preproinsulin signal peptide antigen and its recognition by specific autoreactive CTLs during inflammation. These results underscore the impact of ER stress in the increased visibility of β-cells to the immune system and position the IRE1α/miR-17 pathway as a central component in β-cell destruction processes and as a potential target for the treatment of autoimmune T1D.




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Maternal Type 1 Diabetes Reduces Autoantigen-Responsive CD4+ T Cells in Offspring

Autoimmunity against pancreatic β-cell autoantigens is a characteristic of childhood type 1 diabetes (T1D). Autoimmunity usually appears in genetically susceptible children with the development of autoantibodies against (pro)insulin in early childhood. The offspring of mothers with T1D are protected from this process. The aim of this study was to determine whether the protection conferred by maternal T1D is associated with improved neonatal tolerance against (pro)insulin. Consistent with improved neonatal tolerance, the offspring of mothers with T1D had reduced cord blood CD4+ T-cell responses to proinsulin and insulin, a reduction in the inflammatory profile of their proinsulin-responsive CD4+ T cells, and improved regulation of CD4+ T cell responses to proinsulin at 9 months of age, as compared with offspring with a father or sibling with T1D. Maternal T1D was also associated with a modest reduction in CpG methylation of the INS gene in cord blood mononuclear cells from offspring with a susceptible INS genotype. Our findings support the concept that a maternal T1D environment improves neonatal immune tolerance against the autoantigen (pro)insulin.




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Artificial intelligence versus clinicians: systematic review of design, reporting standards, and claims of deep learning studies




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Manual acupuncture versus sham acupuncture and usual care for prophylaxis of episodic migraine without aura: multicentre, randomised clinical trial




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Clinical characteristics of 113 deceased patients with coronavirus disease 2019: retrospective study




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Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain in the general population, 1990-2017: systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017




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Opioid agonist treatment and risk of mortality during opioid overdose public health emergency: population based retrospective cohort study




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Comparison of dietary macronutrient patterns of 14 popular named dietary programmes for weight and cardiovascular risk factor reduction in adults: systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised trials




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Infectious diseases in children and adolescents in China: analysis of national surveillance data from 2008 to 2017




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Prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of covid-19 infection: systematic review and critical appraisal




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Use of electronic medical records in development and validation of risk prediction models of hospital readmission: systematic review




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Association between maternal and paternal mental illness and risk of injuries in children and adolescents: nationwide register based cohort study in Sweden




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Prospective registration and reporting of trial number in randomised clinical trials: global cross sectional study of the adoption of ICMJE and Declaration of Helsinki recommendations




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Viral load dynamics and disease severity in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Zhejiang province, China, January-March 2020: retrospective cohort study




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Estimated population wide benefits and risks in China of lowering sodium through potassium enriched salt substitution: modelling study




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Prevalence of diabetes recorded in mainland China using 2018 diagnostic criteria from the American Diabetes Association: national cross sectional study




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Use of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors and risk of serious renal events: Scandinavian cohort study




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Occurrence, prevention, and management of the psychological effects of emerging virus outbreaks on healthcare workers: rapid review and meta-analysis




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Association between tax on sugar sweetened beverages and soft drink consumption in adults in Mexico: open cohort longitudinal analysis of Health Workers Cohort Study




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Prognosis of unrecognised myocardial infarction determined by electrocardiography or cardiac magnetic resonance imaging: systematic review and meta-analysis




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Stocks Round Up | JSE Combined Index advances marginally

The Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) Combined Index regained lost ground on Tuesday with an advance/decline ratio of 28/38 The JSE index advanced marginally 1,154.11 points or 0.32 per cent to close at 360,497.91. The JSE Main Market Index was up...




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Playa to cut Jamaican room count 40% with sale of two Jewels

The sale of two Jewel properties will inject US$60 million into loss-making Playa Resorts while reducing the hotel rooms it operates in Jamaica by more 40 per cent. Playa announced the sale of Jewel Runaway Bay Beach Resort...




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BCIC offers partial refund on April premiums

 British Caribbean Insurance Company Limited, BCIC, will refund a portion of April’s premium to holders of its public passenger vehicle, PPV, and Diamond Max private motor insurance next week. The move, which is expected to cost BCIC...




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Sagicor raises doubt about Scotia Life T&amp;T deal

Sagicor Finance Company has raised doubt about whether the deal to acquire the assets of Scotia Life Trinidad...




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FTC puts Total gas market share at 30% - Sees no threat to competition from Epping deal

THE ACQUISITION of Epping resulted in Total Jamaica controlling nearly a third of the retail gasolene market, but that’s not enough to lessen competition, the Fair Trading Commission, FTC, has found. “The acquisition is unlikely to have either the...




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Digital Jamaica throws sales lifeline to furniture companies

DESPITE TUMBLING sales and challenges with hire-purchase accounts, two of the largest retailers of home furniture and appliances, Courts Jamaica and Singer Jamaica, have found glimmers of hope during the COVID-19 pandemic. That’s because work-from...




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Facing forex shortage, productive sector appeals to BOJ for help

WITH THE productive sector experiencing a shortage of foreign exchange for the past two months, the Jamaican Manufacturers and Exporters Association, JMEA, says it has appealed to the Bank of Jamaica, BOJ, for direct access to US currency for three...




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Why We Build Walls: 30 Years After the Fall of the Berlin Wall

8 November 2019

Robin Niblett

Director and Chief Executive, Chatham House

Gitika Bhardwaj

Editor, Communications & Publishing, Chatham House
Robin Niblett talks to Gitika Bhardwaj about the physical and psychological significance of border walls and their role in politics today.

GettyImages-1184642325.jpg

Part of the Berlin Wall still standing today. 9 November marks the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall that soon led to the collapse of the communist East German government. Photo: Getty Images.

This year marks the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. The wall, which stood between 1961 to 1989, came to symbolize the ‘Iron Curtain’ – the ideological split between East and West – that existed across Europe and between the two superpowers, the US and the Soviet Union, and their allies, during the Cold War. How significant was the Berlin Wall during the Cold War – was it more important physically or psychologically?

The Berlin Wall was important physically, as well as psychologically, because Berlin was the only city that was divided physically by the Cold War between the Soviet Union and its allies in the Eastern Bloc and the West.

Given the disparity that quickly emerged between the two sides in economic wealth, freedom of expression and so on, the fear was that, without that wall, there would've been a unification of Berlin in a way that the Soviet side would have lost.

But it was also very important psychologically because it became the symbol of the division between two ideologies that saw each other as inimical to each other.

That meant that if you wanted to visualize the Cold War, and the separation between the capitalist, democratic system of the West and the communist, command-and-control system of the East, Berlin offered a place where you could physically walk from one world, through a checkpoint, into the other. The whole Cold War could be reduced to this one nexus point.

Because of its psychological as well as its physical significance, the fall of the Berlin Wall quickly became the symbol of the collapse of the communist ideology it had shielded.

Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, European countries have reportedly built over 1,000 kilometres of walls – the equivalent of more than six times the total length of the Berlin Wall – along their borders.

Why has Europe been building more walls and how effective have they been? Have they been used more as symbols to appeal to political bases, and if so, has it worked with voters?

The walls that have been built in Europe recently have been for a very specific reason. This was the huge influx of migrants and refugees to Europe in 2015, through what was called the ‘eastern Mediterranean’ or ‘western Balkan route’, from Turkey to Greece and on through the Balkans, Serbia and Hungary to northern Europe – in what was Europe's biggest migrant and refugee crisis since the Second World War.

What’s interesting is that for Viktor Orbán and the Hungarian government, which was on the frontline of the flow of migrants and refugees, building a wall was a way of reasserting its sovereignty. 

Like many other countries along the ‘migrant route’, they resented that the rules under which people could migrate into Europe were flouted by northern European governments which were willing to accept large numbers of migrants and refugees.

By accepting them, they kept attracting more, and so Orbán was worried that, at some point, Germany might say ‘We can’t take anymore’ and they’d be left in Hungary.

It’s important to remember that the communist states of central and eastern Europe were kept in aspic by the Soviet Union – they existed in a hermetically sealed environment without immigration. As a result, they didn’t experience the rise of multicultural societies of the sort that emerged in Britain, Belgium, France and Germany, where immigration persisted throughout the Cold War period.

The countries of central and eastern Europe were delighted that the Berlin Wall collapsed because it allowed them to unify with western Europe. They had been vassal states of the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and by joining the EU, they re-discovered personal freedom and re-gained national sovereignty. They thought they had become masters of their own future again.

But they suddenly found they were on the frontline of a new movement of people that wanted to get into the same world that they’d entered some 15 years earlier. And, as hundreds of thousands of migrants and refugees began arriving, they suddenly realised they were in a union that did not respect their sovereignty.

So, for them, putting up walls was a sovereign act against a European Union that didn’t seem to take their sovereignty seriously.

Has it worked? Definitely. The flow of migrants has been reduced drastically. This is partly because the EU paid Turkey to hold back the over three million migrants based there. But the walls also acted as a physical and psychological deterrent. 

It also worked politically. It allowed Viktor Orbán and other European parties that took the sovereigntist line to strengthen their appeal to voters – voters like to know that governments can do certain things like protecting them and their borders.

What is hypocritical, however, is that many of the governments in western Europe which criticized the Hungarian government for building its wall have actually been rather grateful that they did so as it slowed down the flow of migrants to their countries.

Then there’s the additional hypocrisy of the EU criticizing Donald Trump for building his wall with Mexico when Europeans are benefitting from theirs in Hungary.

Two years before the fall of the Berlin Wall, former US president Ronald Reagan challenged Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev to ‘tear down this wall’ declaring ‘across Europe this wall will fall. For it cannot withstand [freedom].’

32 years later, building a wall along the US–Mexico border has become a cornerstone of the current US administration under Donald Trump who has pledged to build a ‘big beautiful wall’. How does this reflect the political evolution of the US and what effect does that have across the rest of the world?

President Reagan talked about tearing down the Berlin Wall as a symbol of the Cold War. He knew that the fall of the wall would undermine the Soviet Union. 

President Trump is way beyond the Cold War. Building a new wall is his response to the growing sense of economic dislocation that segments of America, like Britain and other parts of Europe and the developed world, have experienced on the back of the rise of globalization, which was partly the result of the end of the Cold War but also the rise of China.

The spread of globalization, the declining earning power of many workers in the West, advances in technology which have taken away many high-earning jobs, the eight years of austerity after the global financial crisis – these are all factors driving Trump’s thinking. 

Have inflows of Mexican immigrants or immigrants through the Mexico border been the principal driver of economic insecurity?  No.  What you’ve got is Trump promising to build a wall as a symbol of his administration’s determination to protect Americans.

So I’d say the US–Mexico wall is another symbolic – or psychological – wall. Trump’s wall is supposedly about stopping illegal immigration but there are still plenty of ways to come through the border posts. It’s principally an exercise in political theatre.

Construction site for a secondary border fence, following the length of the current primary border fence, separating the US and Mexico in San Diego. Photo: Getty Images.

From the Great Wall of China to Hadrian’s Wall, walls and fences of all sorts have been used throughout history for defence and security, but not all of them have been physical.

So-called ‘maritime walls’, as well as ‘virtual walls’, are also increasingly being enforced which, today, includes border forces patrolling seas and oceans, such as in the Mediterranean Sea or off the coasts of Australia, and border control systems controlling the movement of people. Politically how do these types of barriers compare to physical ones?

You could argue that the Mediterranean Sea, and the European border forces operating within it, still act as a physical wall because they constitute a physical obstacle to migrants being able to move from the South across the Mediterranean Sea into Europe. 

So I don’t see this maritime wall being much different to the physical walls that have been built to try to stop migrants – just like any other border patrol, the Italian navy is preventing NGO vessels carrying migrants, who have been stranded at sea from docking at Italian ports. 

In this sense, you could argue that the Mediterranean Sea is a larger version of the Rio Grande between the US and Mexico which also incorporates physical barriers along its shores.

I think the more interesting walls that are being built today are virtual walls such as regulatory walls to trade, or with the internet, new barriers are being built to digital communication which affect your capacity to access information. 

In the end, all these walls are manifestations of national sovereignty through which a government demonstrates it can ‘protect’ its citizens – whether they are successful in this objective or not.

The border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, and the presence of enforcement mechanisms along the border, has become a key issue in the Brexit negotiations. How much of the debate over this is about the symbolism of the border against its economic implications?

The Irish border carries great symbolic importance because it reflects the reality of the separation of two sovereign states.

On the island of Ireland, the British and Irish governments have wanted to minimize this reality to the greatest extent possible. They even went as far as removing all types of barriers as part of the Good Friday Agreement.

This is the same sort of fiction the European Union created when it removed any physical manifestations of the existence of borders between those member states in its Schengen agreement on borderless travel.

By removing physical manifestations of the border, the UK was able to reduce some of the popular support for Irish unification as well as support for the IRA’s campaign of violence and terrorism to try to force the same outcome. 

Brexit has thrown a huge spanner into this arrangement. If Brexit is going to mean the entire UK not being in the EU’s customs union then some sort of border would need to be reinstated.

The British government proposed to do all the checks behind the border somewhere. The EU’s view was, ‘Well, that’s nice for you to say, but this border will become the EU’s only land border with the UK, and you cannot guarantee that people won’t be able to smuggle things through.’

On the other hand, recreating a border of some sort, whether physical or not, would reignite the differentiation between the two nations – running counter to the spirit of the Good Friday Agreement.

The only solution available to Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been to put the border down the Irish Sea.  While this means that Northern Ireland will no longer be an obstacle to the UK signing new, post-Brexit, free trade agreements with other countries, it has betrayed the Conservative Party’s unionist allies, for whom it’s essential that the UK’s borders include and not exclude them. 

By the end of the Cold War there were just 15 walls and fences along borders around the world, but today, there are at least 70. How effective, do you think, building barriers are as a political and military strategy to defence and security issues given their financial – and human – cost?

Physical barriers can be an effective form of protection – or imprisonment. 

The separation wall between Israel and the Palestinian territories has reduced the level of terrorist violence being perpetrated in Israel, but the cost has been the impoverishment of many Palestinians, and is another nail in the coffin of a two-state solution.

Yet many Israelis are saying that, maybe, being entirely separate is the best way to achieve peace between the two sides.

However, the walls around the Gaza Strip have not prevented, for various reasons, the Hamas government from developing rockets and firing them into Israel.   

You could argue that the border between China and North Korea, which is severely patrolled, has been a tool of continued political control protecting the Kim Jong-un regime from collapse – as has its virtual border preventing internet penetration.

Similarly, the virtual border the Chinese government has created around its own internet, the ‘great firewall’, has been very effective both economically – allowing Chinese internet platforms to develop without the threat of competition – and also as a form of political control that helps the Chinese Communist Party retain its monopoly on power. 

So walls in all of their shapes and forms can work. They are like sanctions – sanctions are easy to impose but difficult to remove. Walls are easy to build but they’re difficult to break down. 

But my view would be that they still only work temporarily. In the end, walls serve their particular purpose for a particular period, like the Berlin Wall, they end up outliving their purpose.

You have to be alive to the fact that, whether that purpose was a good or bad purpose, there will be a moment when walls end up protecting the interests of an ever-narrower number of people inside the wall, while they cease serving, if they ever did, the interests of the growing number on both sides. 

It’s ironic that the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989 was not the main marker of the end of the Cold War. It began earlier that year, with the intensification of people protesting in Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia.

Once Hungarian troops dismantled the fence separating them from Austria in May 1989, thousands of Hungarian citizens simply walked out of their country, because by then, the wall between the East and West only existed in their minds.

Then, once East Germans also realized that Mikhail Gorbachev and the Soviet regime had lost its willingness to defend the Berlin Wall, it collapsed. 

So it is interesting that we’re marking the end of the Cold War with this anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, which of course, did divide two halves of one country, making its fall all the more poignant and powerful. But the end of the Cold War really began with the fall of the invisible wall in people’s minds.




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Challenges and Opportunities in the Fight Against Corruption

Members Event

9 December 2019 - 6:30pm to 7:30pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Rory Stewart, Member of Parliament for Penrith and The Border (2010-19); Secretary of State for International Development (2019)

Chair: Daniel Bruce, Chief Executive, Transparency International UK

Drawing on his experience in government, Rory Stewart shares his observations into the impact corruption can have on society.

This event is organized in association with Transparency International UK as part of Transparency International UK’s Annual Lecture series.

Members Events Team




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Webinar: The UK's Unpredictable General Election?

Members Event Webinar

19 November 2019 - 11:30am to 12:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Professor Matthew Goodwin, Visiting Senior Fellow, Europe Programme, Chatham House
Professor David Cutts, Associate Fellow, Europe Programme, Chatham House

On 12 December 2019, the United Kingdom will go to the polls in a fifth nationwide vote in only four years. This is expected to be one of the most unpredictable general elections in the nation’s post-war history with the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats and Nigel Farage’s Eurosceptic Brexit Party both presenting a serious challenge to the UK’s established two-party system.

This webinar will discuss the UK general election and will unpack some of the reasons behind its supposed unpredictability. To what extent will this be a Brexit election and what are the other issues at the forefront of voters’ minds? And will the outcome of the election give us a clear indication of the UK’s domestic, European and wider international political trajectory?

Please note, this event is online only. Members can watch webinars from a computer or another internet-ready device and do not need to come to Chatham House to attend.




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UK General Election 2019: BBC-Chatham House Foreign Policy Debate

Members Event

28 November 2019 - 10:30am to 11:30am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Stephen Gethins, Candidate for Fife North East and Shadow Spokesperson for Foreign and Commonwealth Office (2018-19), Scottish National Party (remote)
Dominic Raab, Candidate for Esher & Walton, Foreign Secretary and First Secretary of State (2019), Conservative Party
Emily Thornberry, Candidate for Islington South & Finsbury and Shadow Foreign Secretary (2016-19), Labour Party
Chuka Umunna, Candidate for Cities of London & Westminster and Spokesperson for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs (2019), Liberal Democrat Party
Chair: Ritula Shah, The World Tonight, BBC Radio 4
 

As the United Kingdom prepares to go to the polls on 12 December 2019, this event, organized in conjunction with the BBC's show, The World Tonight, will give a Chatham House audience the opportunity to put their foreign policy questions to a panel of senior UK politicians.
 
Important Information About the Event
This event is hosted in collaboration with the BBC. It will be recorded and broadcast on BBC Radio 4The World Tonight. Given the BBC’s commitment to due impartiality during the election period, questions will be asked to be pre-submitted via email by audience members the day before the event. The BBC will then select a balanced and diverse range of questions from those submitted. The panellists will not receive the questions in advance of the event.
 
About the Ballot
Due to the expected popularity of this event, this event will be balloted. Please register your interest for the event by 11:59pm on Monday 25 November. Successful registrants – selected at random – will be notified on Tuesday 26 November and then invited to submit their questions. The BBC will contact directly those audience members whose questions they select.
 
As priority will be given to members, we are unable to register members’ guests for this event.

Event attributes

E-ticket event

Members Events Team




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UK General Election 2019: Foreign Policy Implications

Members Event

11 December 2019 - 5:30pm to 6:30pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

John Casson, Associate Fellow, Europe Programme, Chatham House
Tom Raines, Head, Europe Programme, Chatham House
Dr Yu Jie, Senior Research Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House
Antony Froggatt, Senior Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resource Governance, Chatham House

On the eve of the UK general election, a group of senior Chatham House experts analyse a range of key foreign policy issues that will hinge on the election’s outcome.

Members Events Team




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Don’t Be Afraid of Political Fragmentation

16 December 2019

Pepijn Bergsen

Research Fellow, Europe Programme
If managed correctly, splintering and more volatile political systems – so-called ‘Dutchification’ – need not be a ticket to political and policy paralysis.

2019-12-16-Dutch-Election.jpg

Voters cast their vote as part of the Dutch general elections on March 15, 2017 at a polling station in a mill in Oisterwijk. Photo by ROB ENGELAAR/AFP via Getty Images.

In recent decades, political party systems across Europe have fragmented and electoral volatility has increased. The number of parties represented in parliaments across the continent has grown and the formerly dominant mainstream parties have seen their support base collapse, forcing parties into often uncomfortable and unstable coalitions.

From the United Kingdom to Germany, politicians and commentators talk of such scenarios in often apocalyptic terms and associate it with political instability and policy paralysis.

They shouldn’t. Instead they should focus their energy on making these increasingly competitive political markets work.

The Netherlands is frequently held up as a prime example of this process, which is therefore sometimes referred to as ‘Dutchification’. Its highly proportional political system has created the opportunity for new parties and specific interest groups to win parliamentary representation, ranging from an animal rights party and a party catering specifically to the interests of the elderly.

This has been accompanied by increased electoral volatility. In the 1970s, less than 15% of seats in the Dutch parliament would change party at any election, but in the last election in 2017, this was just over a quarter. The system also created space for the relatively early rise of populist far-right parties, though it was not the cause of their rise.

Nevertheless, despite the regularly difficult coalition politics, it remains one of the most well-governed countries in the world.

A short history of fragmentation

Looking at the effective number of parties represented in parliaments, the number of parties, corrected for their size, provides a good measure of the extent of fragmentation. In the Netherlands this steadily increased from around four in the 1980s to over eight following the election in 2017. Even the populist far-right vote has fragmented, with two parties partly competing for the same electorate. In other countries it has been a more recent phenomenon. Spain remained a de facto two-party system until the financial crisis. Dissatisfaction with both mainstream parties has seen challenger parties on both the left and the right attract significant support, making it harder to form stable coalitions. Political fragmentation decreased slightly in Italy in recent years, but that was from a high base as it shot up in the early 1990s when the post-war political settlement crumbled.

German politics, long a hallmark of stability, is struggling with the decrease in support for the parties that dominated its political scene in the post-war period. The Christian Democrats and Social Democrats only barely managed to win a majority together in the election in 2017, at 53.4% of the vote compared with the 81.3% achieved 30 years earlier. The latest polls suggest they would only get to 40% together if an election were held today.

A similar trend is visible within the European Parliament. Whereas the two largest groups in the European Parliament, the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats, together won 66% of the vote in the election in 1999, they did not even manage to win a majority together in 2019, taking just 39.5% of the vote.

No crisis of democracy

If electoral volatility and political fragmentation does indeed constitute some sort of crisis of democracy, we should expect to see voters become unhappy about how their national democracy functions. Largely, the opposite seems to be the case.

In the Netherlands, satisfaction with its democracy went up at the same time as Dutchification did its work. Similar trends are visible in other highly fragmented European political systems, often those with very proportional systems. Despite regular minority governments, satisfaction with democracy is above 90% in Denmark and at 80% in Sweden, according to the latest Eurobarometer data.

In comparison, it stood at 52% in the United Kingdom and 53% in France, where the electoral system has, at least on the surface, prevented the kind of fragmentation supposedly plaguing proportional systems.

Satisfaction with democracy seems to be affected by a number of factors. This includes the state of the economy, particularly in countries that were hit the hardest by the global financial and euro zone crises. Nevertheless, the data suggests that, even if we can’t say that Dutchification by definition leads to more satisfaction with democracy, it is clearly not associated with falling faith in the system.

A competitive political market

Dutchification should be seen as accompanying a more competitive political marketplace. A more emancipated, demanding and politically engaged electorate than in the post-war decades is willing to shop around instead of merely vote according to socioeconomic class or other dividing lines, such as religious ones. The fragmented parliaments that emerge as a result provide better representation of different groups within European societies.

This makes life harder for Europe’s political parties and politicians, as they juggle large coalitions, or changing coalitions under minority governments, but provides voters with more choice and democratic renewal. If handled correctly this would also allow more responsiveness to shifts in public opinion.

Such democratic creative destruction in competitive political markets is to be celebrated in a well-functioning democracy. Just as companies prefer to operate in an oligopoly, political parties prefer the stability of limited political competition. But wishing for this kind of stability comes perilously close to preferring stability over proper representation.

Worrying about Dutchification risks confusing a crisis of the traditional mainstream parties with a crisis of democracy. For some countries, particularly those like the Netherlands and Denmark which have longer histories of consensus-based politics and coalition building, this is an easier adjustment. But this should not be an excuse to not attempt to make politics work better as they were forced to go through, arguably still ongoing, adjustment processes too.

Instead of investing in futile attempts to get back to how things were in the old days, or hoping this will somehow magically happen, political leaders and parties across Europe need to reassess how they deal with the new reality of Dutchification.