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Here's the latest map...

A Few Points
-As I mentioned tonight, MUN weather station is reporting 60+ mm as of 4:30 this afternoon. St. John's airport reporting 40 mm as of 2:30 pm. So totals could be close to 70 or 80 mm in some places by Saturday evening.
-St. John's and the Northern Avalon has been included in the Freezing Rain Warning for Northern sections and higher elevations overnight and early tomorrow.
-Gander is reporting 17 cm as of 4:30 pm... so 30-40 cm there is likely there.
-Grand Falls-Windsor and Bay of Exploits have been included in the Snowfall Warning.

Have a good weekend!

Ryan

Hey folks,

I posed this question last night on Here & Now... Do you think this past weekend storm was Sheila's Brush? I know, I know, it's only March 9th... but here are a few facts for you.

1) Sheila's Brush is of course the big Winter Storm that hits Eastern Newfoundland every year around St. Patrick's Day. The Storm is usually considered that last big one of the Winter.

2) St. Patrick's Day is next just around the corner... next Wednesday the 17th.

3) This has been a CRAZY winter with a lack of Snow and Warm temperatures.

PAST 5 YEARS

Here's a look at the Past 5 Years and when Sheila's Brush moved in.

2009- March 21st. 28 cm in St. John's and Gander had 24 cm.

2008- March 17-19th. St. John's had 58 cm of Snow! Gander had 57 cm of Snow. Gander also got hit just days before 64 cm of Snow on the 13th and 14th... so it was a double whammy.

2007- March 29th-30th. Gander gets 20 cm while St. John's only gets less than 5. However St. John's had 14 cm just a few days earlier. You have to go all the way back to Feb 23-24th to find a Big Snowfall for St. John's in the weird year of 07.

2006- March 27-29th. St. John's sees 32 cm of Snow. Gander lands 27 cm.

2005- March 30-31st. St. John's gets 18 cm of Snow and 60 mm of Rain. Gander gets 63 cm!!!

So there's no doubt the numbers show, this past weekend storm was WAY too early to be Sheila. But again you never know. This winter has been one of the warmest we've seen in decades... it will be really interesting to see how it all plays out. Especially considering we do appear to have something brewing for early next week.

NEXT WEEK SYSTEM

A quick update on our potential (Sheila) system for early next week.

-The Canadian model is still bringing the system in on late Sunday and into Monday. It's taking the centre of the system waaayyy to the West and wrapping nothing but warm air and rain into Newfoundland and even Southeastern Labrador.
-The American model continues to do the cha cha cha. It was showing a miss early yesterday, then it brought it back West... now it's somewhere in between. Still with the Tuesday idea.
-The European is thinking Tuesday as well and has an interesting track... just East of the Island.

Again, I'll keep you updated.

Ryan

Hey Folks,

Well our system moving in next week still has plenty of question marks around it. The main issue is the actual track the system will take... which the models really can't seem to get a handle on.

-Gone seems to be the idea that system will track up through Quebec and Western Labrador. That would have drawn a ton of warm air in from the South bumping up temperatures.... maybe to double digits... with some rain as well. However the models have completely backed off on that theory.

-Now the thinking seems to be either a) A track right through Newfoundland b) A Track just East of Newfoundland or c) A track completely to the Southeast of the Island... missing us completely.

A or B.

This scenario would be messy. Some light Snow mixed with Rain coming in on Tuesday along the Warm front of this system before it backs right in on top of us on Wednesday and into Thursday.
As I mentioned yesterday the more Easterly track would allow Cold air to wrap in behind this system and help produce Snow.
If the GFS run you're looking at above came true... we would be looking a huge shot of Snow for Central and parts of Western Newfoundland.

C.

This would be the most popular pick for many of you I'm sure. The idea here is that the area of High pressure to the Northwest and into Labrador is strong enough to push the system far enough to the Southeast, that is almost completely misses us. We would still see some mixing along the Warm front on Tuesday... but the meat and potatoes would be off shore.

SO WHICH ONE?

So how uncertain are the forecast models right now?

-The GFS American model had the full on Newfoundland Storm idea in it's overnight run. Just 6 hours later it came out with the complete miss scenario. 2 completely different ideas.
-The Canadian model has been bringing the Storm into Newfoundland with on it's last 3 runs.
-The European has been consistently taking the system far enough to the Southeast for a miss.

The good news is... if this system does come in... it's not until Wednesday. So I'll be watching the models closely over the weekend. If I start to see some condenses... I'll drop you a quick line on my facebook and twitter.

http://www.facebook.com/ryan.snoddon
twitter.com/ryansnoddon

Either way, we'll be talking about this on Monday on Here & Now.
Have a great weekend.

Ryan

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