Russia's war on everybody 6 December 2022 — 5:00PM TO 6:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 14 October 2022 Chatham House and Online

Experts discuss the methods Moscow has employed to exert influence around the world over recent decades.

Russia’s assault on Ukraine has reminded the world about the threat it faces from Moscow. But that’s not the only war that Russia has been fighting and Ukraine is not the only target.

Long before February 2022, Russia was already engaged in semi-covert campaigns across Europe and around the world, using any means possible to expand its power and influence and leaving a trail of destruction along the way.

In his new book Russia’s War on Everybody, Chatham House associate fellow Keir Giles examines what this longer war means for us all. Instead of talking only to diplomats, politicians and generals, Giles has looked instead at the effect of Russia’s ambition on ordinary people.

Interviewing 40 eyewitnesses from four continents, he has tried to tell the stories the world doesn’t hear about the impact of Russia’s hostility on individuals and societies that may not even realize they are a target.

At this event, Giles introduces the book at Chatham House. He is joined by experts to talk about the human impact of Russia’s campaigns waged through leveraging corruption and cyber offensives respectively.

As with all members events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

Read the transcript. 

The future of global trade: Beyond ‘peak globalization’? 23 November 2022 — 11:00AM TO 12:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 17 October 2022 Online

Is globalization in retreat?

The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine have highlighted how vulnerable international trade is. But, even before these recent shocks, rising protectionism in major economies around the world and concerns about the environment have weighed heavily on trade.

According to some key measures, the globalization trend appears to have slowed. But is ‘peak globalization’ a reality or a myth? What are the major phases of globaliszation and what might come next? The answer differs between trade in goods, services, capital, technology, data and people. And whether the future is a more integrated or fragmented world economy also depends on politics and the stability of the international order.

Key questions to be tackled at this event includes:

• How do recent shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine, change globalization? 

• What are the key indicators for the global integration of major economies?

• Will there be a split between a US and China-dominated ’trading sphere of influence’?

• Could trade in services offer ‘globalization’ a new phase of rapid growth?

• What impact will technology continue to have on global trade and the future of globalization?

As with all members events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

The discussion is part of the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum. The Global Trade Policy Forum is supported by founding partner AIG, associate partner Boston Consulting Group and supporting partners Clifford Chance LLP, Diageo PLC and UPS.

Read the transcript. 

The Commonwealth reimagined 8 November 2022 — 6:00PM TO 7:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 18 October 2022 Chatham House and Online

Ghana’s minister of foreign Affairs, the Hon. Shirley Ayorkor Botchwey, discusses her vision for a modern Commonwealth and how it can evolve and match demands from its members.

The death of HM Queen Elizabeth II has focused attention on the future of the Commonwealth. The Commonwealth is an expanding voluntary organization of 56 independent countries in Africa, Asia, the Americas, Europe, and the Pacific.

Its appeal is increasingly beyond the circle of former British colonies – ex-French colonies Togo and Gabon officially joined in October 2022 and the ex-Portuguese colony, Angola, has applied. The Commonwealth Secretariat, established in 1965, is its main intergovernmental agency, which coordinates and carries out much of the Commonwealth’s work, supported by a network of more than 80 organizations.

King Charles III now heads the Commonwealth, which is focused on shared goals of prosperity, democracy and peace. However, the future of the Commonwealth and its purpose are unclear, and the organization needs to develop a sharper agenda on what its international contribution can be across its 56 state members and their peoples.

The minister discusses key questions including:

• What should a modern Commonwealth look like and how can it best operate?

• How can the organization impact policies and actions at a country level?

• What role will young people play in the future of the Commonwealth?

• How can the organization harness collective resources and technology to tackle major global issues such as climate change?

• Can the issue of mobility and immigration among member states be managed?

Iran: Protests, politics and power 16 November 2022 — 6:00PM TO 7:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 18 October 2022 Online

Join Robert Macaire, UK ambassador to Iran (2018-21), and others to discuss what the protests mean for Iran’s domestic, regional and global power.

Protests in Iran, spurred after Masha Amini died in police custody, have drawn focus on how Iranians feel about state repression, a struggling economy and global isolation. Iran is facing the most adamant challenge to its power structure since the ‘green movement’ in 2009 with protests taking place in more than 50 cities and towns across the country. There is no sign that the government will back down but what will that decision mean for the power it can wield at home and abroad?

This conversation examines how the protests impact Iran’s domestic power, its regional relationships and its relations with the US.

• What do the protests demonstrate about Iran’s power domestically and regionally?

• How do the protests influence the JCPOA?

• What will the government gain if they hold a hard line on protesters?

• How do the protests impact Iran’s regional activities?

As with all members events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

Read the transcript. 

What’s next in UK monetary policy? 4 November 2022 — 4:00PM TO 5:30PM Anonymous (not verified) 19 October 2022 Chatham House and Online

A panel of leading experts discuss the future direction of UK monetary policy.

The UK’s so-called ‘mini-budget’ on 23 September led to a severe market reaction and a wave of criticism at home and abroad that ultimately forced the sacking of UK chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and contributed to the downfall of Liz Truss’s government.

The new chancellor Jeremy Hunt is due to deliver what will essentially be an entirely new budget in mid-November, with a full assessment from the Office of Budget Responsibility. This will follow the meeting of the Bank of England’s interest rate setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Thursday 3 November.

Given rising inflationary pressures worldwide, it seems highly likely that the MPC will increase interest rates once again, but by how much and how far there will have to be an additional premium linked to the government’s fiscal strategy is far from clear.

Chatham House’s Global Economy and Finance programme is pleased to partner with Fathom Consulting to host a special session of Fathom’s Monetary Policy Forum.

A presentation of Fathom’s latest economic outlook, fully updated to take account of the previous day’s MPC decision, will be followed by a discussion among four of the MPC’s original former external members. Key questions will include:

• How far has the government been able to restore its fiscal credibility?
• Did the MPC make the right decision on 3 November?
• What is the likely pace and extent of monetary tightening in the UK going forward?
• What will be the long-term consequences for the UK economy of the past month’s policy experiment?
• What are the international implications?

As with all members events, questions from the audience drive the conversation. 

This event is in partnership with Fathom Consulting.

The road to COP27: In conversation with US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry 27 October 2022 — 3:00PM TO 4:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 20 October 2022 Chatham House and Online

What will progress on climate change look like at COP27?

With global attention zeroing in on COP27, policymakers and world leaders will meet in Egypt to take the next step in the fight against the climate crisis. The planet is on course to warm well beyond 1.5°C and climate hazards are increasing our exposure to climate risk. Violent and unpredictable weather events increasingly leave devastation among communities, particularly in vulnerable countries.

At the same time, the ripple effects of the conflict in Ukraine will have wide-ranging economic, social and geopolitical consequences for years to come. Whilst some finance is being made available, more is needed to properly address the damage caused by climate change and fund the transition to net zero worldwide. These challenges have become more acute as the world grapples with a growing energy crisis, the war in Ukraine and a troubling economic outlook.

Joined by US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry, the following questions are considered:

• Is ‘1.5 degrees’ still on track?

• How can countries better collaborate to move to net zero faster?

• How can we achieve progress on adaptation, climate finance, and loss and damage?

As with all members events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

Read the transcript. 

Middle East and great power competition 28 November 2022 — 12:00PM TO 1:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 25 October 2022 Chatham House and Online

Experts discuss how the Middle East is changing in a fast-moving geopolitical environment.

The war in Ukraine and great power competition define not only global politics but also regional ones. The Middle East is a microcosm for observing how the great power rivalry informs regional affairs.

OPEC+’s decision to reduce oil supply to international markets and many regional states’ balancing act between the West and Russia, for that matter China as well, are only a few recent policy choices that clearly illustrate how the global and regional levels interact with each other.

Plus this is now a region in which the US has downsized its security commitments, whereas Russia has increased its footprint in regional security and China in economy.

This event tries to unpack how the great power rivalry and the war in Ukraine affect regional politics and how the Middle East adjusts itself to this new phase in global politics.

Thinking out loud: Is disinformation here to stay? 10 November 2022 — 6:00PM TO 6:45PM Anonymous (not verified) 25 October 2022 Chatham House

This event is postponed.

Have you ever wondered how Chatham House researchers approach the big deals that become research? Do you enjoy meeting other Chatham House members and engaging with questions that open your mind? ‘Thinking Out Loud’ invites a small group of members to a live, unscripted discussion with a Chatham House researcher. This in-person event is a way for researchers and members to think out loud to help shape ideas for future research.

Kate Jones, Associate Fellow, International Law Programme at Chatham House will pose some key questions facing how speech is governed in an online world:

• How has big tech influenced the way we think about speech and its limitations?

• Can disinformation be eliminated or even greatly reduced?

• Where should the responsibilities fall between government and business when it comes to speech regulation?

• What might the information landscape look like in 10 years’ time? Should that affect how we tackle disinformation today?

As with all members events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

Weathering the storm: The UK’s role in the world today 29 November 2022 — 12:00PM TO 1:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 7 November 2022 Chatham House and Online

In conversation with David Miliband, examining the risks and opportunities for the UK in a critical year ahead. 

With a new government in the midst of a global order in flux, the UK’s position in the world needs re-examining.

Just 20 months since the UK’s Integrated Review on international policy and security, Britain’s global blueprint is being reviewed and updated in light of major global developments.

Today, Brexit and the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine require adjustments to the UK’s strategic thinking and positioning in the world.

As the economic and political turmoil of previous weeks begins to abate, this is an important moment to once again determine Britain’s role in Europe and beyond. 
 
Realigning British foreign policy in a rapidly shifting international order will be a major challenge for the new administration.  

International Rescue Committee’s CEO and President, and former UK Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, examines the risks and opportunities for a critical year ahead. 
 
Key questions include:

• What are the crucial decisions the UK needs to make in the coming 12 months?
• What should the UK’s priorities be for its role in the world? How should it project itself amidst geopolitical fracturing?
• How can Britain best respond to humanitarian crises around the world?
• Does the UK have the strategic and economic clout to keep up with its foreign policy and development commitments?

As with all Chatham House member events, questions from members drive the conversation.

Read the transcript. 

Members' Christmas drinks 6 December 2022 — 6:00PM TO 8:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 9 November 2022 Chatham House

Join us at 10 St James’s Square for a chance to raise a glass with fellow Chatham House members and staff.

This evening is a special opportunity to meet fellow Chatham House members and staff around the Christmas tree.

Please note this reception is open to members of Chatham House only. Regrettably, we are unable to register non-member guests.

The Director’s Annual Lecture 2023 10 January 2023 — 6:00PM TO 7:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 17 November 2022 Chatham House and Online

Bronwen Maddox looks ahead to the challenges of the year and sets out Chatham House’s recommendations for change.

Read a transcript of the event

A lecture and discussion on the year ahead in international relations with Bronwen Maddox, director and chief executive of Chatham House.

Although Russia’s war on Ukraine rightly dominated headlines in 2022, other challenges also grew, the climate became warmer, US/China competition intensified, deglobalization became a much-analysed theme, and the global economy suffered significant blows.

The UK has its third prime minister in less than one year as it grapples with its changing place in the world. And the world is still living in the shadow of COVID-19 and what the pandemic revealed about strengths and vulnerabilities, global inequity, and North/South divides.

This event examines how the forces that shaped 2022 may manifest in 2023, and what that means for progress in international relations:

• What will progress look like on the climate agenda?
• How will the new US Congress reposition America’s role in the world?
• What does the North/South divergence on Russia’s war in Ukraine tell us about shared values and prospects for working together?
• After a turbulent year, how will the UK recover its standing in Europe and beyond?

Built for net zero 12 December 2022 — 6:00PM TO 7:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 21 November 2022 Chatham House and Online

How can sustainable infrastructure deliver on low-carbon commitments?

Demand for sustainable infrastructure is increasing in scale and complexity as developed and developing countries seek to accelerate the transition to low-carbon economies while improving living standards for all.

Delivering on net zero will require significant public and private investment, with spending on physical assets alone requiring a yearly commitment of at least $7 trillion according to estimates by the International Federation of Consulting Engineers (FIDIC).

To ensure the successful build-out of modern green infrastructure across target sectors from transport and energy to water, innovative financing and collaborative project delivery models are needed to support climate commitments, energy-efficiency, and sustainable living options.

This discussion examines how construction design and infrastructure strategies should evolve to deliver on sustainability goals, remain competitive, and maximize societal outcomes.

The discussion, supported by EY, explores these key questions: 

• What are the main drivers and restraints for governments in delivering green infrastructure?
• What is the role of investors in promoting sustainable infrastructure?
• Where should investment be targeted for maximum impact?
• Who are the key stakeholders that should be involved in infrastructure delivery and what does successful collaboration look like?
• How can civil society and local governments play a greater role in urban design to deliver safe, resilient infrastructure with positive societal outcomes?

As with all members events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

Read the transcript.

Nigeria's 2023 elections: Security, economic and foreign policy imperatives 5 December 2022 — 1:00PM TO 2:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 23 November 2022 Chatham House and Online

Bola Ahmed Tinubu, presidential candidate for the All-Progressives Congress, discusses his vision and recently-unveiled manifesto for ‘renewing hope’ in Nigeria.

Nigeria is scheduled to hold presidential and national assembly elections on 25 February 2023 as well as governorship and other subnational elections on 11 March 2023.

The elections will end President Muhammadu Buhari’s two terms in office since his election in 2015 and will mark the first time that he is not engaging in a presidential poll since Nigeria’s transition to civilian rule in 1999 – an important marker in Nigeria’s trajectory of democratic consolidation.

Nigeria’s recently enacted Electoral Act has contributed to improved hope around the election process, reflected in the addition of 12.29 million new voters in Nigeria’s voter registration exercise across the federation’s 36 states and 1,491 constituencies.

Yet Nigeria stands at a critical juncture, having suffered from two recessions in the past six years, unprecedented levels of food insecurity, persistent fuel scarcity and high levels of crude oil theft.

Civic fatigue also remains an important challenge and President Muhammadu Buhari’s three main policy pillars of security, economy and corruption continue to be defining issues for citizens.

At this event, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, presidential candidate for the All-Progressives Congress, discusses his vision and recently unveiled manifesto for ‘renewing hope’ in Nigeria including his policy proposals for economic reform and revival and how to deliver secure and inclusive job opportunities for Nigerian citizens.

Download a transcript

This event is a members and Africa programme event and is part of a series of events and outputs examining Nigeria’s 2023 elections and political developments.

As with all Chatham House member events, questions from members drive the conversation.

Brexit: Then, now and the future 2 February 2023 — 6:00PM TO 7:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 30 November 2022 Chatham House and Online

How has Britain’s negotiations with the EU set it on a post-EU path?

The Brexit negotiations went down to the wire between the UK and the EU in December 2020. By January 2021, the UK’s departure from the EU had taken place, but the new relationship was by no means stable. The UK and EU have since clashed on trade, migration and the Northern Ireland Protocol which are all left unresolved. 

This year, both sides have had to deal with domestic political instability, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a global energy crisis that has changed the dynamics of its relationship. In the years ahead, both sides will need to address shared challenges, from the rise of China and climate change to security on the European continent. 

This discussion includes those who were in the room during the Brexit negotiations, including Michel Barnier’s adviser, to get an inside look on how the UK and EU negotiated Brexit. Combining insight from the new book, Inside the Deal – How the EU Got Brexit Done, with expert analysis the panel assesses where the post-Brexit negotiations are today.

Key questions include:

• What issues in the deal still need to be fixed?

• How has the EU evolved since Brexit?

• How would a future Labour government approach the UK-EU relationship?

• What are the best and worst case scenarios for UK-EU relations in 2030?

As with all members events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

Read the transcript.

Ten conflicts to watch in 2023 11 January 2023 — 6:00PM TO 7:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 8 December 2022 Chatham House and Online

This event examines the most dangerous wars and crises through the lens of the International Crisis Group’s flagship annual report ‘10 Conflicts to watch in 2023’.

Each year, International Crisis Group compiles a list of the ten conflicts to watch that examines key conflicts across the globe. Please join us for this event at which Dr Comfort Ero, International Crisis Group president and CEO, discusses today’s and tomorrow’s most impactful wars and crises.

Key questions to consider include:

• What far-reaching repercussions and knock-on effects of Russia’s war on Ukraine will have for Europe and the rest of the world?

• Which crises beyond Ukraine warrant collective attention in the year ahead?

• How do rising tensions among major powers impact multilateral efforts to resolve these conflicts, impede progress on global challenges and impact institutions working on crisis prevention?

As with all members events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

Read the transcript. 

Crisis in the international order 23 January 2023 — 6:00PM TO 7:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 8 December 2022 Chatham House and Online

Why societies are challenging the international order?

Major global challenges, including the climate, refugee crises and the global pandemic, are increasingly revealing shortcomings in our international system and are bringing to the forefront calls for a more just world. But what is justice? 
 
Calls for justice come in many forms and from many directions - from the fair distribution of resources to the recognition of indigenous rights. While for some there is consensus on the importance of multilateral cooperation to tackle global issues, there is a sharp North/South divide at the centre of debates on issues such as the climate crisis, racial justice, and international law. Countries from the global South are demanding more equitable and redistributive solutions, for example in the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, while the Global North seek the status quo. 
 
North/South division slows progress on reform. Some political actors are starting to challenge the very foundations of our global order, a move that could dramatically change the global system as we know it. 

Key questions to consider include:

• Why are there tensions between the global North and South?
• How can these issues be addressed?
• Does the global North ‘owe’ the global South some form of justice? Which form of justice?
• If these issues are not addressed, what are the implications for the current international order?

This event is held in conjunction with International Affairs.

As with all members events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

Read the transcript.

The race to vaccinate 16 January 2023 — 5:00PM TO 6:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 9 December 2022 Chatham House and Online

What are the lessons from the UK’s COVID-19 vaccination campaign?

The first COVID-19 vaccination in the UK was administered on 8 December 2020, eight months after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on 11 March.

With multiple rounds of vaccines having now been administered widely, the UK is in a position to live effectively with the virus and the prospects of more lockdowns and COVID-19 restrictions have diminished.

The story behind the UK’s biggest vaccination campaign in British history is told during this discussion with Kate Bingham and Tim Hames, authors of The Long Shot: The Inside Story of the Race to Vaccinate Britain, which describes the management of complex political and operational challenges.

Juggling vaccine suppliers, Whitehall and the media, all had the potential to threaten the Vaccine Taskforce’s efforts.

This event explores the UK’s experience and lessons learned. The panel explore:

• How were the most challenging obstacles to the UK’s vaccine development, scale-up and delivery overcome?
• What does the success of the UK vaccine development and delivery mean in an international context?
• What has the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted about global cooperation on vaccine administration worldwide?
• As the pandemic moves into the rear-view mirror, how can industry and government work better together for future vaccination campaigns?

As with all members events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

Read the transcript. 

What is Labour’s foreign policy? 24 January 2023 — 12:00PM TO 1:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 3 January 2023 Chatham House and Online

In conversation with David Lammy, the UK shadow foreign secretary.

David Lammy MP, shadow secretary of state for foreign, commonwealth and development affairs, outlines Labour’s plan for UK foreign policy if elected to government.

He addresses the UK’s strengths and opportunities in a world that has become more divided, more dangerous, and more unpredictable. He also offers a critique of the current UK government’s approach to foreign policy, particularly at strained relationships with allies and Britain’s economic woes.

The shadow foreign secretary explores the following key questions:

• What would a future Labour government do to modernize Britain’s diplomacy and rebuild alliances to improve Britain’s global influence?

• In a new age of warfare in Europe, how would Labour pursue security cooperation with allies?

• How would Labour address high energy costs, energy security, and the climate crisis?

• As Britain’s economy falters, how can foreign policy drive prosperity at home?

• What is Labour’s plan for international development, following the UK government’s abandonment of the 0.7% commitment?

As with all members events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

Read a transcript

The state of the union? US foreign policy and a new US Congress 30 January 2023 — 5:30PM TO 6:30PM Anonymous (not verified) 11 January 2023 Chatham House and Online

As a new Congress takes shape, what is the impact for US foreign policy?  

The recent US 2022 midterm elections have led to a split with Republicans in command of the US House of Representatives and Democrats retaining a slim majority in the Senate.

Following a gruelling selection process for the new Speaker of the House, the new Congress took its seats in January 2023, but President Joe Biden no longer enjoys single-party control of Congress.

• What will be the implications of this for US leadership and US foreign policy?
• How will domestic politics constrain foreign policy objectives?
• Can policymakers across government set aside political differences to tackle global challenges?

This panel also unpacks insights into the following questions:

• What will this Congress view as foreign policy priorities?
• Will policies that are tough on China ramp up?
• Can the US continue its support for Ukraine with a split Congress?
• Will the next two years lead to any considerable foreign policy pivots with a general election on the horizon?

As with all members events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

Read the transcript.

A new nuclear order 7 February 2023 — 6:00PM TO 7:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 26 January 2023 Chatham House and Online

In conversation with Rafael Mariano Grossi.

For more than half a century, the global nuclear non-proliferation framework has supported international security and facilitated the expansion of the many peaceful applications of nuclear science and technology. 

What is happening today in Ukraine, Iran and North Korea, not only challenges the way we deal with the existential threat of nuclear weapons, but also the impact it could have on addressing another existential threat – climate change.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the biggest test to global resolve both in avoiding nuclear conflict and in ensuring the safety of one of the biggest nuclear power programmes in Europe.

Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency discusses key questions on global nuclear cooperation including:

• The impact of the war in Ukraine and issues with Iran and North Korea on countries’ risk assessment with regards to nuclear non-proliferation.

• What the IAEA’s on-the-ground presence and the director general’s missions to Ukraine, particularly the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, tells us about what is necessary – now and in the long term – to ensure the safety and security of nuclear material under all circumstances.

• The role of ensuring nuclear energy can play its vital part in mitigating climate change now and in the future.

As with all member events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

Read the transcript.

The future of the Russia-China relationship 9 February 2023 — 6:00PM TO 7:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 26 January 2023 Chatham House and Online

What lies ahead for the ‘unlimited friendship’ between Moscow and Beijing?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has raised new questions about the nature of the relationship between Russia and China, with the war seen as having the potential to shift Russia from a close ally to a liability in the eyes of the Chinese government.

This event explores the latest developments in extent of the relationship and interactions between the two: new convergences and divergences, energy links and limitations, declared alliances and private disagreements.

Experts on the panel explore:

• How has the relationship changed since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine?
• What do the Russian and Chinese people make of the relationship?
• How could a war-weakened Russia be viewed by China?

As with all members events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

Read the transcript.

Members event 1 February 2023 — 7:00PM TO 7:30PM Anonymous (not verified) 1 February 2023 Chatham House

Members event (open ticket) 1 February 2023 — 9:00PM TO 10:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 1 February 2023 Chatham House and Online

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: How it changed the world 21 February 2023 — 6:00PM TO 7:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 1 February 2023 Chatham House and Online

Chatham House experts examine how the world has changed since 24 February 2022.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted serious soul-searching about European security, what it means to be European and the futures of the two principal protagonists. However, practical questions have developed throughout the war in surprising ways.

Chatham House is producing a multi-author feature reflecting on seven things Russia’s war has changed in the world. The article assesses the impact of the war one year on, the long-term changes this has catalyzed and unpacks why these changes are significant for the future of international affairs.

This event examines key themes with the research directors who authored the piece. Alliances, national resiliency for both Ukraine and Russia and sanctions are examined including the following questions:

• How did the war change Ukraine?

• What alliances have been forged over the past year? 

• How long can ‘fortress Russia’ weather the storm and what has it revealed about Russia’s integration into the international system? 

• What have countries done to mitigate the impact on supply chains and markets? Who, for example, has been most affected by the grain crisis?

• What have we learnt about Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky that we didn’t know before 24 February 2022?

As with all members events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

Linked article: ‘Seven ways Russia’s war on Ukraine has changed the world’, read the featured piece here.

Read the transcript. 

Disruptive technologies by nation states and malign cyber actors – the US response 16 February 2023 — 1:00PM TO 2:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 2 February 2023 Chatham House and Online

Lisa Monaco, the US deputy attorney general, discusses how autocratic governments and malign cyber actors use disruptive technologies to project power and engage in illicit activity.

Weaponizing data, ransomware attacks and other illicit cyber activity represent significant threats to national security. 

Governments and malicious cyber actors around the world exploit disruptive technology to engage in criminal activity, track citizens and coerce other countries thereby weakening the rules-based order and fundamental principles of democracy. 

Lisa Monaco discusses how the world is at an inflection point when it comes to meeting this challenge and describes how the US and partner nations are responding to protect their citizens and the broader international community.

Key questions to discuss include:

• What steps does the US government need to take to properly address this threat?
• How are countries coordinating policies to confront the problem?
• To what extent does this challenge go beyond US-China competition?

As with all member events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

Read the transcript.

Who gains from artificial intelligence? 27 February 2023 — 5:30PM TO 6:30PM Anonymous (not verified) 6 February 2023 Chatham House and Online

What implications will AI have on fundamental rights and how can societies benefit from this technology revolution?

In recent months, the latest developments in artificial intelligence (AI) have attracted much media attention. These technologies hold a wealth of potential for a wide range of applications, for example, the recent release of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, a text generation model, has shed light on the opportunities these applications hold including to advance scientific research and discovery, enhance search engines and improve key commercial applications.

Yet, instead of generating an evidence-based public debate, this increased interest has also led to discussions on AI technologies which are often alarmist in nature, and in a lot of cases, misleading. They carry the risk of shifting public and policymakers’ attention away from critical societal and legal risks as well as concrete solutions.

This discussion, held in partnership with Microsoft and Sidley Austin LLP, provides an expert-led overview of where the technology stands in 2023. Panellists also reflect on the implications of implementing AI on fundamental rights, the enforcement of current and upcoming legislation and multi-stakeholder pathways to address relevant issues in the AI space.

More specifically, the panel explores:

• What is the current state of the art in the AI field?
• What are the opportunities and challenges presented by generative AI and other innovations?
• What are some of the key, and potentially most disruptive, AI applications to monitor in the near- and mid-term? 
• Which applications would benefit from greater public policy/governance discussions?
• How can current and future policy frameworks ensure the protection of fundamental rights in this new era of AI?
• What is the role of multi-stakeholder collaboration?
• What are the pathways to achieving inclusive and responsible governance of AI?

• How can countries around the world work together to develop frameworks for responsible AI that upholds democratic values and advance AI collaboration across borders?

As with all member events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

Read the transcript.

The era of ‘reglobalization’ 15 June 2023 — 6:00PM TO 7:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 14 February 2023 Chatham House and Online

How to balance international trade with efforts to enhance domestic economic resilience?

The global trade outlook remains challenging in 2023. Geopolitical tensions and national security concerns are playing a greater role in trade policy with a focus on strengthening supply chain resilience and reducing economic dependencies. In addition, the turn towards industrial policies has raised concerns about unfair trade practices and protectionism.

The debate about the future of globalization has only therefore deepened. While ‘deglobalization’ dominates the current public discourse on trade, is ‘reglobalization’ a better term to describe patterns of economic integration and fracturing across different economies and sectors?

The panel of experts discuss:

• To what extent are efforts to meet climate goals and maintain technological leadership intertwined with industrial policy and national security objectives?

• What do recent measures by the US – including the Inflation Reduction Act and a push on semiconductors – mean for cooperation with like-minded partners such as the EU?

• Are any countries resisting the protectionist trend and continuing to champion open trade?

• What steps can be taken to strengthen strategic and sensitive supply chains, for example, for critical minerals, high-capacity batteries and semiconductors?

• Is it possible to develop and advance a positive trade agenda for a reglobalized world? If so, what would it look like?

As with all member events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

Chatham House Primer: Social media and democracy 21 March 2023 — 6:00PM TO 6:45PM Anonymous (not verified) 23 February 2023 Chatham House

From the Arab Spring to the 2016 Trump election win, how have democracies benefited and suffered from the impact of social media? 

With social media now a well-entrenched, yet still recent, component of societies, democracies are still grappling with the impact bought about by this new form of communication and promotion.

For all that social media has bought people closer together and brought government, business and civic leaders, it has also been said to have fuelled divisions and hate. Governments and businesses are now drawing battle lines on the legal responsibilities required of social media platforms as we slowly determine the role they play in our society.

This Primer will discuss key questions including:

• What are the current legal responsibilities of social media companies? What sort of laws and regulations must they abide by?
• How are governments looking to change to this?
• How have some countries manipulated social media to monitor and censor their populations?
• Can social media truly tackle harmful and dangerous content?
• Is it possible to combat disinformation and what role should social media platforms play?
• How can we make social media best fit our society in the future?
• How should we govern online space?

A drinks reception will follow this event.

As with all member events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

The security gap 7 March 2023 — 6:00PM TO 7:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 24 February 2023 Chatham House and Online

With the increasingly significant role that women play in national defence, will perceptions change or are current attitudes towards women in uniform here to stay? 

Women have been part of armed conflicts for all of human history, serving alongside men, as well as in their own distinctive units.

More recently, scores of women are involving themselves in Kurdish resistance fighting, being deployed in Syria as fighter pilots for Israel’s Armed Forces and serving on Ukrainian frontlines.

Women have been integrated into militaries around the world including in the Canadian, Swedish and Norwegian armies to name a few.

This discussion aims to tackle some of the following questions:

• What are some of the challenges that more inclusive militaries bring and can these challenges be overcome?
• Can more inclusive militaries help solve the human resources problems that many modern militaries face?
• Are attitudes changing as more women serve in combat? 
• What are the opportunities for women in militaries and in wider defence efforts?

As with all member events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

In conversation with Rahul Gandhi 6 March 2023 — 6:00PM TO 7:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 27 February 2023 Chatham House and Online

The former president of the Indian National Congress discusses how today’s world will set the path for the world’s biggest democracy.

Soon to be the world’s largest population, and with a rapidly growing economy and an increasing presence in global affairs, India’s place in the world is changing.

Hosting the G20 this year, the New Delhi summit in September 2023 is a symbol of India’s growing might, moving from emerging to prominent player on the world stage.

However, challenges faced by the country are substantial. Frosty relations with China, ongoing tension with Pakistan, climate catastrophe, and food insecurity all represent significant global concerns to India.

Internally, the hurdles are imposing. Millions still live below the poverty line and demographic instability poses risks to the country. The state of democracy across the country is consistently questioned.

At this event, Rahul Gandhi explores key questions including:

• How does India see the impact of the war in Ukraine?
• Will New Delhi be able to balance relations between the West and Russia?
• Can India offer an alternative vision for Asia that challenges China?
• Internally, to what extent is democracy in India under strain?
• Can India’s economy evolve to create a wide-reaching, prosperous nation in the coming years?

As with all member events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

Is China's economy on the rebound? 5 April 2023 — 6:00PM TO 7:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 28 February 2023 Chatham House and Online

Exploring the domestic and international signals from the first annual session of the 14th National People’s Congress.

2022 proved to be a difficult year for China. War, COVID-19 and economic turbulence presented a cocktail of significant challenges for the ruling CCP in China. Having dispensed of the infamous zero-COVID-19 policy, China is apparently back open for business.

On the international front, continued tensions with the West, war in Europe and climate change are just some of the obstacles standing in the way of Chinese economic recovery. 

Domestically, China must find ways to reinvigorate demand and move on from a low of 3 per cent GDP growth in 2022. With a frustrated population, people are also keen to be freed from the shackles of a stream of lockdowns and quarantining.

The in-tray for the 14th National People’s Congress, as it begins its first session, is substantial. The implications, at home and abroad, from its recent summit in Beijing reverberate around the world.

The experts on the panel discuss:

• What has been the true extent of COVID-related damage to China’s economy and wider society?
• What economic scars are visible post-recovery?
• Will there be longer-term implications for China’s economic and diplomatic footprint globally post-COVID? 

As with all member events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

From Iraq to Ukraine: What did governments learn? 20 March 2023 — 12:00PM TO 1:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 6 March 2023 Chatham House and Online

What were the main lessons for today’s conflicts from the way in which the war in Iraq played out?

This March marks the 20th anniversary of the US and UK-led invasion of Iraq to oust Saddam Hussein. Based primarily on unfounded fears Iraq’s WMD (weapons of mass destruction) capability was buidling up in the absence of UN inspection and constraints on the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) safeguards, the decision to go to war has reverberated throughout the Middle East, the intelligence communities, and Western political decision-making ever since.

In the 2002–03 period when UN inspectors were allowed back into Iraq, Hans Blix, chairman of UNMOVIC (UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission) and Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the IAEA, were at the centre of a storm in which they were put under huge pressure to agree with the US/UK narrative on the ‘missing’ WMD.

Their problem was that the evidence they were uncovering did not support the claims, but the war went ahead – and Saddam was overthrown – despite these UN findings.

Much has changed since 2003. As the geopolitical landscape has shifted, so have geopolitics and capabilities. Today’s Russia’s war against Ukraine which includes WMD threats, cyberattacks, and an assertive disinformation campaign has opened up new ways of thinking about communicating information from open source and government intelligence analysis.

This panel explores the experiences of people involved with decision-making at the UN and in the UK in 2003 and how things have changed today.

• What were the lessons from the way in which the war in Iraq played out?
• How has that influenced the way in which NATO has responded to Russia’s wars against Ukraine?
• How should information be communicated within governments and to the public?
• How to deal with disinformation campaigns in the days of open source information and social media?

As with all member events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

Can diplomacy advance human rights? 25 April 2023 — 4:00PM TO 5:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 7 March 2023 Chatham House and Online

How is diplomacy contributing to advancing human rights through the multilateral system?

The international human rights system has come under significant pressure in recent years. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US-China rivalry have created difficult political pressures, while major global challenges including climate change and global inequality demand answers. Effective diplomacy on human rights has become increasingly difficult, with incentives stacked against bold action.

The relationship between diplomacy and human rights is an uneasy one. Diplomacy is an art of negotiation, persuasion and compromise. Human rights are tightly defined and universal. The relationship between the two may seem paradoxical, but in the context of an unstable world order, it has never been more important.

In the 75th anniversary year of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, this discussion will explore the critical role of diplomacy in advancing human rights in the future.

• What are the critical human rights challenges today? What is the role of diplomacy in addressing them?

• What is the impact of intensifying competition between the US and China on the human rights system?

• Is there an opening for more leadership emerging from the Global South?

• What is the future of the human rights system in the context of this polarized world?

As with all member events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

In conversation with Ehud Barak 27 March 2023 — 12:00PM TO 1:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 21 March 2023 Chatham House and Online

The former prime minister of Israel discusses his country’s political outlook and foreign policy priorities.

On the eve of its 75th independence anniversary, Israel is at a critical crossroads. Weeks of long, intense protests surrounding judicial reforms pursued by the current government have widened the debate over the role played by the, so far independent, judiciary, notably the Supreme Court.

Supporters on both sides of the argument are fighting over different visions of Israel – a true liberal-democracy, or a much-reduced version of a democratic system. Whichever side of the argument people fall, the debate symbolizes tension in Israel’s society and decline in trust of its political and constitutional institutions.

Abroad, the situation remains intricate. Israel-Iran relations remain on a knife edge while the Abraham Accords normalized relations with parts of the Gulf. Then there are the continual issues surrounding relations with the Palestinians and their right to self-determination and statehood.

Old international challenges are now rubbing up against the new. Israel is part of a changing power dynamic in the Middle East, the result of a much-reduced US footprint. Furthermore, it must now contend with the other global superpower in China and continue to work on its response to the war in Ukraine.

Amid its domestic struggle to maintain its democratic character, fast-moving regional and international developments are in need of addressing. Friends and allies are deeply concerned with the country’s constitutional crisis, potentially re-evaluating their relations with the Jewish state.

Former prime minister of Israel Ehud Barak lays out his views on the complexities of domestic and international challenges facing Israel today.

Questions covered include:

• What are the main root causes of the current constitutional crisis, and how could it be best resolved?
• Could the current situation lead to a breakdown of the political system, even widespread violence?
• How could the current circumstances in Israel and Palestine affect relations between the two and any prospect for peace negotiations?
• How will US-Israel relations stand up against China’s influence in the region?
• What is Israel’s interpretation of the war in Ukraine and how is the country affected?

As with all member events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

Russia’s aggression and a crisis for multilateralism 30 March 2023 — 1:00PM TO 2:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 23 March 2023 Chatham House and Online

In conversation with Dmytro Kuleba, minister of foreign affairs of Ukraine, about how multilateral organizations struggle to respond adequately to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, Russia pursues this war in defiance of the umbrella organization’s multiple resolutions condemning the invasion, along with its war crimes, annexation of territory, deliberate targeting of civilian nuclear infrastructure, cultural extermination, and global disinformation campaign. 

This event explores the following questions: 

• How should the response of the UN to Russian aggression be assessed? 
• What can be done to uphold the guiding principles of the UN Charter? 
• Is there a ‘UN problem’ or a ‘Russia problem’? 
• How can trust and the legitimacy of multilateral cooperation be restored in times of strategic rivalry and rising global tensions?
• Who can drive such an effort? 
• Is post-Soviet transfer of the UN Security Council seat to Russia a cause of current impunity? 

This event features a live in-person audience in Kyiv as well as in London and online.

Chatham House exhibition - In conversation with the future 19 April 2023 — 6:00PM TO 8:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 31 March 2023 Chatham House

Hear from the innovative leaders and companies driving change towards a more sustainable future.

This event is an opportunity to hear from the innovative leaders and companies driving change towards a more sustainable future.

The evening begins with a panel discussion then, over sustainably sourced drinks and canapés, you are invited to walk through Chatham House and explore the innovative and experimental ideas enabling radical shifts to allow us to prosper without exhausting our planet’s resources.

Our exhibiting partners include Earthshot Prize winner NotPla, Hawkins Brown, Polymateria, and BEEN London. 

Bronwen Maddox, director of Chatham House, opens the evening at 6pm and introduces our panel of experts, chaired by Ana Yang, head of Chatham House’s Sustainability Accelerator. 

Please note that this event is operating a ballot for in-person attendance. Your place will be confirmed by Wednesday 12 April if you are successful.

Turkey at a crossroads 4 May 2023 — 6:00PM TO 7:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 4 April 2023 Chatham House and Online

What is at stake in the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections?

Turkey is heading towards a fateful presidential and parliamentary elections in May 2023. These elections are taking place against the background of a deepening economic downturn and a devastating earthquake. The elections will bear a major impact on the future of Turkish democracy, economy and foreign policy. At stake is the nature of Turkey’s political system, its geopolitical identity and the health of its democracy.

To unpack the significance and implications of this election, this event aims to address the following questions:

• What kind of political visions do the main presidential candidates offer for the country?
• How do they differ on the main domestic and foreign policy issues?
• How do the presidential candidates feature in public surveys?
• What does this election mean for Turkey’s foreign policy?
• What is the likely impact of the election on Turkey’s place in the transatlantic alliance and its relations with Europe?

As with all members events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

Can rhetoric match reality? Britain’s international development future 27 April 2023 — 9:00AM TO 10:00AM Anonymous (not verified) 12 April 2023 Chatham House and Online

In conversation with Andrew Mitchell, minister of state, UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. 

Last month’s updated Integrated Review positioned international development as a key pillar of British foreign policy which sets out the importance of the UK’s efforts to shape the ‘global strategic environment’.

Focusing heavily on Africa and the Indo-Pacific, international development will be central to the ambition of a ‘Global Britain’.

The Integrated Review outlines seven priority areas to revitalize the drive to meet the Global Goals, with a climate security strategy at its heart, while seeking to go beyond official development assistance (ODA).

However, there are major challenges ahead. Since 2021, the UK’s ODA has been cut from 0.7 per cent to 0.5 per cent gross national income (GNI). Some are concerned that since being subsumed by the UK Foreign Office, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office has diluted the effectiveness of UK international development. Then there is the question of the strength of British public support for development assistance at a time of domestic economic hardship.

Can rhetoric match reality?

This event tackles questions including:

• What does the UK’s vision for international development mean in practice?
• Will aid and development help push Britain’s influence around the world?
• Can policymakers and politicians garner domestic support for international aid in times of economic uncertainty, and if so, how?
• Can the UK rebuild its reputation in the world while it doesn’t meet its 0.7 per cent GNI target?

This event will be balloted for in-person attendance. Register your interest to join and a confirmation email will be sent to you on Tuesday 25 May at 12:00 BST to confirm your place at the event.

As with all member events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

A coffee reception will immediately follow this event.

The role of think tanks amid political uncertainty 9 May 2023 — 6:00PM TO 7:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 13 April 2023 Chatham House and Online

Think tank leaders discuss how persistent and new forms of political uncertainty impact on their work and what can they do to counter it.  

Think tanks play a crucial role in supporting better public policy to address the most pressing global and local challenges. However, the recent rise in political turbulence poses a significant challenge to this work. Not only must the work of think tanks help counter political uncertainty but that uncertainty often threatens their ability to work effectively, and in some cases, their survival.

Polarized elections, regional instability, the rise of populism, shrinking civic space, eroding democracies, weakened institutions and public distrust are just some of the tricky contexts and issues raised by think tank leaders in the latest think tank state of the sector report. 

This event is being held in collaboration with On Think Tanks ahead of the On Think Tanks Conference.

Join us for a thought-provoking discussion at Chatham House on the major sources and consequences of political uncertainty in the world today and the critical role of think tanks in responding to and countering it. 

Key questions to be addressed during this discussion include:

• How does political uncertainty look like today?
• What can think tanks do to operate within uncertain contexts? 
• What are their roles: should they build the middle ground, support political parties, rally behind social demands?  
• Will think tanks be able to maintain their reliability and credibility in an increasingly polarized political environment?
• What can think tanks do to contribute to greater political stability?

As with all member events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

A drinks reception will immediately follow this event.

General practice leaders in Wales have voted unanimously to reject the Welsh government’s GP contract offer for 2024-25.The BMA’s ​General Practitioners Committee Wales said the government’s general medical services contract offer for the current financial year “fails to provide a credible and sustainable future” for general practice.GPs in Wales will now vote on whether to accept or reject the contract in a referendum that will open later this month.Gareth Oelmann, chair of the committee, said, “The decision to disregard the serious concerns and valuable contribution of general practice in Wales is beyond insulting, it is dangerous, leaving more surgeries and their patients in peril. We are concerned that this offer will leave more practices with no option but to close. GPs are being denied the resources they need to deliver vital services to the population.”The BMA said it was not yet able to disclose any details on the offer, and...

An employment judge has cleared the way for Farah Jameel, a former chair of the BMA’s General Practitioners Committee for England (GPCE), to go ahead with claims of discrimination and unfair dismissal against the association over her removal from the post during maternity leave.Jameel, who was elected the first female chair in November 2021, was put on temporary suspension in 2022 after complaints by BMA staff. The BMA told her in August 2023 that her contract was being terminated.The contract described her as a contractor providing consultancy services rather than an employee. But in a preliminary ruling the employment judge Natasha Joffe has held that Jameel was in reality an office holder and an employee, opening the way for her claims to proceed to a full hearing by an employment tribunal.The GPCE passed a vote of no confidence in Jameel in July 2023, as a means of electing a new...

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) has recommended that all women with suspected endometriosis be offered an early transvaginal ultrasound scan, even if the pelvic or abdominal examination is normal.In its updated guideline1 on the diagnosis and management of endometriosis, NICE recommends specialist ultrasound as an alternative to magnetic resonance imaging for investigating suspected cases of the condition in secondary care.The updated guideline follows recent reports from both the National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death2 and Endometriosis UK which highlighted problems with delayed diagnoses, partly owing to a lack of awareness among healthcare professionals of the condition and how it presents. Such delays can result in prolonged suffering, ill health, and risks to fertility, the reports warned.Other new and updated recommendations include asking women with suspected endometriosis if any first degree relatives have a history of the condition, and considering neurodiversity when taking into account...

I’m often asked if I miss working in the House of Commons. Of course I do; it’s one of the most amazing places in the world and remains the cockpit of our nation.There are obviously days I miss it more than others, usually around the big national moments. Whatever your view of Kim Leadbeater’s private member’s bill—the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill—its second reading this month will be one of those big moments.Kim is a friend of mine, and we spoke before she decided to put her bill forward after it topped the private members’ ballot at the start of the new parliament. My advice was to proceed with great care, to remember that this will take over your career in many ways, and to read the report produced earlier this year by the Health and Social Care Committee, which I chaired, on the subject of assisted dying/assisted...

Concerns are mounting over whether the NHS can meet key performance targets this winter, NHS Providers has said, after a survey of trust leaders highlighted pressure on hospitals, ambulance services, and community and mental health teams.1Over nine in 10 of the leaders who responded (96%) said that they were extremely or moderately concerned about the effect of winter pressures on their trust and local area. The most common reasons for concerns related to financial constraints and staffing provision. The top three greatest risks to the provision of high quality patient care over winter were identified as delayed discharge (57%), social care capacity (49%), and acute care bed capacity (43%).NHS Providers surveyed 171 trust leaders from 118 trusts in September and October, accounting for 56% of the provider sector.Most trust leaders (79%) were worried or very worried about whether their trusts had capacity to meet demand for services over the next...

At a recent clinical meeting, I heard that GPs local to me are about to lose the ability to request magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans for patients presenting with musculoskeletal symptoms. We’re instead advised to refer our patients to a musculoskeletal clinical assessment and triage service (CATS)—staffed largely by musculoskeletal advanced practitioners, who will assess our patients and determine whether imaging is warranted.The hope is that fewer patients will have unnecessary imaging and that this will reduce the potential harms of overdiagnosis. Radiologists rarely report musculoskeletal MRI scans as entirely normal, and it can be hard to know what to do with abnormal findings on an MRI. More often than not, patients with abnormal scans are referred to orthopaedic teams, even though there may not necessarily be a surgical target.At a population level, this is problematic on two fronts. Firstly, MRI scans are expensive and need to be used judiciously....

The World in Brief: European Court of Justice The World Today Anonymous (not verified) 29 July 2021

EU brings members into line over fundamental rights

The European Union has had a challenging start to the summer trying to uphold the rule of law and avoid democratic regression in its member states.

On July 14, the Polish constitutional court ruled that the country did not have to comply with the measures imposed by the European Court of Justice against its controversial judicial reforms, citing that these measures were not in line with the Polish constitution.

The ruling Law and Justice Party, known as PiS, has introduced extensive changes to the judiciary since coming to power six years ago. In 2018, the government appointed new judges and set up a disciplinary chamber for the Supreme Court, which was given a temporary suspension by the European Court of Justice in an interim decision last year.

PiS reasoned that the changes were necessary to eliminate corruption stemming from the communist era, but critics say it merely allows the government to punish judges it regards as disloyal. Under the disciplinary system, Polish judges can have sanctions imposed on them for their judgments in the lower courts or if they refer cases to EU courts for preliminary rulings.

In the day following the Polish top court’s decision, the stand-off worsened when the European Court of Justice ruled that the disciplinary chamber undermines judicial independence and violates EU law. It ordered its immediate suspension and reiterated that the EU has primacy over national law – a vital condition countries agree to when joining the EU.

Didier Reynders, the European justice commissioner, sent a letter to Warsaw with an August 16 deadline for an answer on whether Poland would comply with the ruling. If the EU does not receive a satisfactory answer, it will impose financial sanctions on the state.

The former communist country, which joined the EU in 2004, is one of the bloc’s success stories. Its economy has boomed, and most people hold favourable views about the union – less than a handful of other member states have greater support for EU membership.

A recent survey by the Bertelsmann Stiftung showed that ‘although only 35 per cent of Poles are satisfied with the democracy in their own country, a full 70 per cent express positive views on the state of democracy in the EU’. These figures feed into a larger picture of many Europeans welcoming the EU as a supervisory agent that is capable of intervening when individual states falter.

Recently, however, the EU has had to step up its efforts as members express anger over the gradual dismantling of fundamental rights under populist governments, not only in Poland.

The persistent backsliding in Viktor Orbán’s Hungary has led to concerns in the EU parliament, which is putting pressure on the European Commission to do more to protect the EU’s values and legal order.

In a simultaneous battle in July, the commission launched legal action against Poland and Hungary, challenging anti-LGBTQ laws in those countries. It was triggered by a decision of more than 100 Polish regions to pass resolutions declaring themselves free of ‘LGBTQ ideology’, and a recently adopted law in Hungary banning any depiction of LGBTQ people on television or in books for under-18s.

An annual report on the rule of law in the union, released by the commission in July, singled out the two countries for their non-compliance. The report, the second of its kind, is a new tool to address concerns that the union was not scrutinizing democratic backsliding within its own bloc. Critics were quick to point out, however, that there is no mention of enforcement actions.

At the start of the year the EU vowed to be tougher in upholding democracy with a new regulation that lets it withhold money from member states that breach the rule of law. The EU has already delayed approving spending plans for Hungary and Poland as part of the €800 billion pandemic recovery fund.

As the European Parliament calls for the commission to reduce budget allocations to those that undermine democratic rights, Poland and Hungary could see the new mechanism put to the test this autumn.

The future of Europe post-Brexit 28 September 2021 — 5:00PM TO 6:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 17 August 2021 Online

In conversation with Michel Barnier, Chief Brexit Negotiator, European Union (2016-2019).

Drawing on the diary he kept during the 1600 days of complex and acrimonious Brexit negotiations, Michel Barnier explores the political and practical implications for Europe post-Brexit.

Britain’s departure from the European Union has been a long and difficult journey. Many questions remain about what future lies ahead for the UK and EU and the relations between them.

• To what extent were UK negotiating positions shaped by politics within the ruling Conservative government? How did domestic politics in EU member states shape EU positions? What were key turning points in the negotiations?
• What are the hopes and expectations for bilateral relations between the UK and EU states?
• What is the scope for UK – EU cooperation on transatlantic issues and relations with China

This event forms part of Chatham House’s ongoing work on Effective Multilateralism.

Read a transcript.

As with all Chatham House member events, questions from members drive the conversation. Attending this event and watching the full event video is for Chatham House members only. Not a member? Find out more.

Russia and 9/11: Roads not taken Expert comment NCapeling 9 September 2021

Many Russia watchers recall the fleeting moment 20 years ago when the country could have moved away from a path of confrontation with the US.

On 12 September 2001, Russian president Vladimir Putin was the first foreign leader to call George W. Bush to express his condolences – and to offer him support.

Just the previous year, Putin had said Russia joining NATO was a possibility and it suited Russia to draw parallels between the terrorist attacks on the US and its own ‘anti-terrorist’ campaign in Chechnya at the time.

Even though much of the Russian commentary about 9/11 professed empathy rather than sympathy, in their eyes the US was both a victim – as Russia likes to see itself – and ‘had it coming’ while Russia was blameless.

At that time, many in the West were still tempted by the idea Putin’s Russia might develop in a liberal direction, and Putin himself wanted to be seen as constructive especially after Chechnya. He may also have also assumed that, if Russia joined the international alliance, it would be as a co-leader with the US.

An offer which was never stated

Whether he was sincere in his condolences or not, Putin was of course not offering something for nothing – but then few countries ever do. Although less than one-tenth into his time in control of Russia (so far), Putin was still feeling his way but was not a naive president having already been through the controversial sinking of the Kursk submarine.

His first move was to facilitate access to bases in Central Asia for the US campaign in Afghanistan – vital initially but less so later. Apparently, this offer was against the wishes of many of his senior military commanders – although the extent to which it was in his gift to grant such access is questionable.

The quid pro quo, unstated and only dawning on Washington much later, was for the US to keep out of what Russia saw – and still sees – as its backyard. Putin probably misjudged that the US would have neither the inclination nor the capacity to be in that region for anything other than supply chain purposes. And he hoped America now needed Russia after the humiliations of the 1990s.

Common interests could once have been the basis of a partnership with Russia; but to Moscow that meant a partnership of equals which recognized the Kremlin’s self-declared right to conduct out-of-area operations. But the US took a different view and, with nothing written down and no memorandum ever signed, the ensuing disappointment for Russia was gradual but inexorable.

A purely practical reason for declining the ‘offer’ was that, despite its own illusions, Russia had little to bring to the table which was useful and could be offered on acceptable terms. Subsequent initiatives – from specific joint terrorism initiatives to a ‘grand reset’ – could not narrow differences to the point where the character of the relationship changed.

The Northern Distribution Network for supplying US forces in Afghanistan – Russia’s most practical contribution to the notional common cause – took almost a decade to be established and was plagued by problems which often come with a dependence on Russian goodwill.

The Kremlin also had the pleasure of watching US hubris lead to failure in Iraq. And, although knowing the US intervention in Afghanistan would never end well, even Russia could not have foreseen the scale of the defeat and humiliation of chaotic withdrawal.

US achievements with Russia’s neighbours

When it comes to Russia’s post 9/11 ‘offer’ and subsequent expectations, many of the other newly independent countries might never have achieved what they have over the past 20 years if the US had agreed – tacitly or otherwise – to sit back and accept Moscow’s droit de regard over them.

From the Kremlin’s perspective, these states were Russia’s ‘kith and kin’ but it underestimated US willingness to support smaller states over a ‘great power’ – especially as George H.W. Bush pleaded to those states not to go too far too fast. Albeit uneven, most have benefitted from US support for their own independence as well as practical assistance to strengthen their institutions and diversify external relationships.

The three Baltic states consolidated their democracies while their economies, which severed many ties with Russia early, are flourishing and prosperous in contrast to those still in the Russian orbit. They are not only members of NATO and the European Union (EU) but have on occasion been moral leaders as in the case of Lithuania facing down both Belarus and China.

Ukraine has undergone two revolutions in attempting to follow the paths of the Baltic states that continues today. After many false starts Moldova has undergone a similar change recently but at the ballot box not on the streets, to give itself another shot at the prize of true democracy and international acceptance.

Georgia conducted the most radical governance reforms seen in the region after its own revolution although it has taken a few steps backwards of late. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have strengthened their independence since then and adjusted their modus vivendi with Russia to their advantage. Putin would hardly be able to give the same assurances about use of bases there today – and indeed reportedly brushed off a request by Biden to use them in the current withdrawal.

Only a minority of formerly Soviet republics have made no progress whatsoever at the governmental level – Belarus and Turkmenistan for sure, perhaps Azerbaijan and Tajikistan too depending on the criteria.

The roads not taken

America’s failure was not so much rejecting Russia’s offer of partnership but failing to pay sufficient attention to it because Russia was still regarded as weak despite being relatively strong in its immediate neighbourhood.

The question of whether it was worth alienating Russia is a moral one. Refusing to sign the Paris Charter – which recognizes the right of independent states to form their own alliances – would have been a further betrayal of people who have long been subjected to their future being decided by stronger powers around them. But Russia may have chosen a path of confrontation anyway as, for the Kremlin, suzerainty over its former republics is considered an entitlement which comes with being a great power.

Although impossible to conclusively prove, all previous frameworks of Russian assumptions and habits of Russian behaviour indicate Moscow would have pocketed the deal and simply moved on anyway. It certainly seems likely that Russia’s other outrages and offenses over the years – from the murders of Litvinenko and Skripal in the UK to the manipulation of information and elections – would still have occurred even if a shabby deal had been made over the heads of the new states on Russia’s borders.

The atrocity of 9/11 was really an opportunity for Russia, a genuine potential turning point and a chance to create a new relationship with the outside world – but its expectations were unrealistic. Russia blew it with demands at the time that could not be met – and rightly were not met. The US rarely receives credit for withstanding Russian blandishments at a moment when its own aura of strength had been so cruelly and effectively punctured by the most brazen of attacks.

Europe's strategic choices 2021 4 November 2021 TO 5 November 2021 — 8:00AM TO 5:30PM Anonymous (not verified) 21 September 2021 Ritz Carlton Berlin

The 2021 conference will consider how Europe can navigate its political, economic and security challenges, in the context of the lasting effects of the coronavirus pandemic and an increasingly competitive geopolitical environment.

Registration is a two step process and you will receive a link to register on the conference virtually in advance. Please email if you wish to attend in-person.

The Eighth Annual Europe’s Strategic Choices conference, jointly developed and hosted by Chatham House, the Institute for Security Policy at the University of Kiel and the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, aims to understand the complex set of challenges facing Europe in the areas of security, economic competitiveness, trade, technology, and global influence.

Set against the backdrop of a Europe emerging gradually from the COVID-19 pandemic, this annual forum brings together policymakers, and representatives from business, civil society and academia, to explore how European countries can best respond, individually and collectively to their common challenges in an increasingly competitive geopolitical environment.

The conference will be hosted in hybrid format to enable speakers and participants to join in person and allow others to engage virtually via the Conference Plus digital platform. This format ensures we can connect with a geographically diverse audience whilst incorporating important elements of in person engagement in accordance with German Federal government guidelines.

Memory politics: the challenge of commemoration in post-Soviet Eastern Europe and the Caucasus 5 October 2021 — 1:00PM TO 2:30PM Anonymous (not verified) 21 September 2021 Online

This event explores how to address memory and commemoration in the former Soviet states, considering their role in political processes and violent conflict. 

How the past is remembered and commemorated plays a large role – perhaps too large – in contemporary political debates and in how conflicts are negotiated.

Perceptions of history influence people’s actions and are used to judge or dismiss the actions of others. Nowhere is this more so than in the political, territorial and social debates and disputes across the former Soviet Union.
 
This event examines how to address the problems caused by entrenched memory debates – and proposes a framework for ‘ethical political commemoration’ for use across historical enquiry, political processes, and conflict transformation initiatives.

The speakers explore the topic through the context of Turkey and the Armenian genocide, as well as more broadly through their own experiences in conflict transformation and peace processes.