• Euro area growth is projected to be sluggish
• Sees downside risks to growth
• Waiting on December projections for a better picture of where we stand

So far, he's not saying anything to jolt market pricing. And that's the other main consideration for any of their communications before making policy decisions. As such, a 25 bps rate cut in December remains the likeliest option at this stage. EUR/USD remains down 0.2% on the day at 1.0626 currently.

• One year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 3.0% last month. That is the lowest in four years
• Three-year inflation expectations 2.5% versus 2.7% last month
• Five-year inflation expectations 2.8% versus 2.9% last month

other details :

• Consumers in October saw lower likelihood of missing a minimum debt payment for the first time in five months
• Consumers in October saw lowest likelihood of a rising US unemployment rate over the next year since February 2022
• Consumers saw lower chance of losing current job and improved prospects for finding a new job if current job were lost
• Unemployment expectations decline to 34.5%, lowest since February 2022
• Probability of finding a job increase the highest level since October 2023

This is good news is inflation expectations help to keep a lid on actual inflation. Nevertheless yields remain near highs for the day.

• 2 year 4.321%, +6.7 basis points
• 5-year 4.281%, +8.9 basis points
• 10 year 4.390%, 8.2 basis points

US stocks are lower:

• Dow -0.38%
• S&P -0.33%
• NASDAQ -0.14%

The New York Federal Reserve branch's Roberto Perli is manager of the Fed’s System Open Market Account (SOMA).

• Recent quarter-end money market volatility not historically large.
• Still strong evidence reserve levels remain abundant.
• No imminent signs of issues for Fed to implement monetary policy.
• Recent quarter-end pressure was contained.
• Slow rise in repo rates has been orderly.
• Standing repo facility stands ready to provide liquidity.
• Notes there’s been more friction in money markets lately.

---

The Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) is the central portfolio used by the Federal Reserve to conduct monetary policy. It holds the securities that the Fed buys and sells through open market operations, primarily U.S. Treasury securities, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities. SOMA is a key tool for influencing short-term interest rates and managing the money supply. By adjusting the size and composition of this portfolio, the Fed can influence liquidity, credit conditions, and the overall stance of monetary policy in the economy.

In addition to domestic assets, SOMA also holds foreign currency assets, allowing the Fed to participate in foreign exchange markets when necessary. The New York Federal Reserve Bank manages SOMA on behalf of the entire Federal Reserve System.

People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%.

How the process works:

• Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day's trading.
• The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.
• Intervention: If the yuan's value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency's value.

Earlier re China:

• Green shoots in China? Excavator sales grew 15% in October
• It's not a pretty picture in China

The USD is higher in trading today as the Trump trade continues. HIgher USD. Higher stocks. Bonds we don't know as the bond market is closed for Veterans Day today. Gold is lower but bitcoin in higher.

In this video, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective.

EURUSD: The EURUSD fell below the swing lows from June between 1.0665 to 1.06705. That is below the low from last week at 1.06819. Staying below that area keeps the sellers in control. Absent a move above those levels and the buyers are not winning. ON the downside, the next support comes in at 2024 lows between 1.0600 to 1.06097.

USDJPY: The USDJPY has bounced higher and pushed to the 153.88 level. That level has helped to slow the run higher today. Recall from last week, the price did move above that level and ran to a high of 154.70 on the dollar buying after the Election before the corrective move lower (the price bottomed at the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart). So the pair is at a key technical level between support at the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart, and the high from last week at 154.70.

GBPUSD:The GBPUSD has seen more up-and-down momentum over the last few weeks of trading. It is trading near the low of that up and down range with 1.2832 to 1.2872 the swing area to get to and through to increase the bearish bias. On the topside gettting back above the low from 3 weeks ago comes in at 1.29065. That would need to be broken to give the buyers more confidence.

In the kickstart video, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs:

EUR/USD Summary

The EUR/USD continued its downward trend due to concerns over slower economic growth and increased tariffs under President-elect Trump.

Key Points:

• Initially rose in the Asian session, but sellers took control near 1.0665-1.06703 swing area. That area was the lows from back in June.

• Staying below the lows from June kept the sellers in control

• Reached a low of 1.0606, testing April's swing lows and the year's lows (since October 2023). A move below the 1.0600 increases the bearish bias.

• Buyers may lean against the low as risk can be defined and limited against the level with stops on a break below.

-------------------------------------------

USD/JPY Summary

The USD/JPY exhibited volatility, with potential bullish signals.

Key Points:

1. Rose yesterday, then stalled between 153.59-153.88 (swing area).

2. Found support at 153.397 (61.8% of July's move down).

3. Broke above 153.88 (bullish signal).

4. Next targets: 154.54-155.09.

Outlook:

Bullish Scenario

Stay above 153.88, targeting 154.54-155.09.

Bearish Scenario

Move below 153.397 increases short-term bearish bias.

--------------------------------------------------

GBP/USD Summary

The GBP/USD fell, breaking below two-week lows and the 200-day MA.

Key Points:

1. Broke below last week's low (1.28329) and 200-day MA (1.28178).

2. Reached 1.27915, then bounced.

3. Traded above and below 200-day MA.

Outlook:

Bullish Scenario

Move above 1.28329, 1.2844, and 1.2866 (50% of April's move) indicates buyer strength.

Bearish Scenario

Stay below 1.28329 and 1.2844 maintains seller confidence; breaking below 200-day MA again confirms bearish trend.

The US CPI will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET. What is expected?

• October Headline CPI expected to rise by 0.2% MoM, which is the same as last month. The forecasted range is 0.1 to 0.3%.
• YoY Headline CPI expected to increase to 2.6%, up from 2.4%, with a forecast range of 2.3 to 2.6%. A change of 0.0% will fall out of the YoY calculation this month.
• Core CPI projected to rise 0.3% MoM and 3.3% YoY, matching the previous month. The forecast range is 0.2 to 0.3% MoM and 3.2 to 3.4% Y/Y. A year ago, a gain of 0.2% falls out of the calculation.

The US PPI will be released on Thursday with the expectations of 0.2% for the MoM headline and 0.3% for the core measure.

Fed's Barkin this morning on inflation kept it simple saying::

• Inflation might be coming under control or might risk getting stuck above Fed 2% target.

Kashkari had more to say about inflation today with different influences. He said.

• Uncertainty exists around the impact of new government policies on inflation.
• A one-time tariff increase is transitory but could become a sustained issue if it escalates, introducing inflation risks.
• Immigration policy changes could have a significant effect on inflation, but the outcome is uncertain.
• Inflation from new leases will take a couple of years to work through the system.
• Housing inflation is expected to return to normal levels, but it may take a year or two.
• If inflation surprises to the upside before December, it may affect policy decisions.
• Current long-term yield increases don’t seem to reflect heightened inflation expectations.
• Higher productivity could suggest a higher neutral rate, potentially influencing future rate cuts.

There were numerous Fed speakers on Tuesday, US time:

• Fed's Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I'm optimistic that will continue
• Fed's Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolves
• Fed's Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook

and we get one more today in Asia:

• 2200 GMT / 1700 US Eastern time - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speaks on "Fintech, AI and the Changing Financial Landscape".

Which doesn't sound too promising for remarks from him on the economy or monetary policy. But, perhaps we'll get a mortsel thrown to us in any Q&A.

***

As for the data agenda, it's a bit of a yawn, none of it likely to move around major FX upon release.

From Japan we'll get an update of wholesale inflation - the PPI for October. The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI)

• its a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output
• is calculated by the Bank of Japan

Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the price change that consumers see for a basket of goods and services, the CGPI focuses on the change in the prices of goods sold by companies.

The PPI reflects some of cost pressures faced by producers

• its based on a basket of goods that represents the range of products produced within the Japanese economy, including items such as:
  • raw materials like metals and chemicals
  • semi-finished goods
  • and finished products
  • different weights are assigned to each category within the index based on its contribution to the overall economy.
• it does not account for the quality improvements in goods and services over time, which might lead to overestimation of inflation
  • additionally, it reflects only the prices of domestically produced goods, leaving out the impact of imported goods

The PPI can be used as a guide to inflationary pressures in the economy:

• If producers are facing higher costs, they may pass these on to consumers, leading to higher consumer prices.

***

From Australia we'll get wages data for Q3. Wage growth is expected to keep slowing (y/y) in Q3 2024. With the labor market softening, upward pressure on wages has been easing over recent quarters.

In Commonwealth Bank of Australia's preview they cite their internal data as indicating a quarterly wage growth of around 0.9%, a notable decrease from the 1.3% growth seen in the same quarter last year, which had been boosted by a significant 5.75% increase in award and minimum wages. As a result, the annual wage growth rate is projected to fall to 3.6%, bringing it closer to a level compatible with sustainable, in-target inflation.

While the labour market softening, but from strong levels, the RBA is eyeing wage growth as a factor helping keep inflation sticky. A moderation in growth for wages will be welcomed by the bank if it translates into softening price pressure also.

• This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
• I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.

Japanese wholesale prices, the PPI or CGPI:

+0.2% m/m

• expected 0.0%, prior 0.0%

+3.4% y/y

• expected +3.0%, prior +2.8%

The higher results will be a bit of a tailwind for the yen, at the margin. Not too much though, there is the huge monetary policy divergence that is weighing on the hapless yen to contend with.

Of note is that renewed yen falls pushed up import costs for some goods

The Bank of Japan is wary of yen weakness pushing up prices, the Bank wants inflation but not like that. The Bank wants inflation coming from wage growth pushing up demand. The Bank has said it'll consider raising rates to help slow or stop the yen decline. But political pressure is on the Bank not to hike until wages are seen rising at the next round of wage negotiations in (Japan's) spring.

---

The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI)

• its a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output
• is calculated by the Bank of Japan

Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the price change that consumers see for a basket of goods and services, the CGPI focuses on the change in the prices of goods sold by companies.

The PPI reflects some of cost pressures faced by producers

• its based on a basket of goods that represents the range of products produced within the Japanese economy, including items such as:
  • raw materials like metals and chemicals
  • semi-finished goods
  • and finished products
  • different weights are assigned to each category within the index based on its contribution to the overall economy.
• it does not account for the quality improvements in goods and services over time, which might lead to overestimation of inflation
  • additionally, it reflects only the prices of domestically produced goods, leaving out the impact of imported goods

The PPI can be used as a guide to inflationary pressures in the economy:

• If producers are facing higher costs, they may pass these on to consumers, leading to higher consumer prices.

Australia data - Wage Price Index for Q3 2024:

+0.8% q/q for the third consecutive quarter

• expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%
• Both the private sector and the public sector rose 0.8%, seasonally adjusted, for the quarter.

+3.5% y/y, lowest annual rise for the series since December quarter 2022 and followed four consecutive quarters of annual wage growth equal to or above 4%.

• expected +3.6%, prior +4.1%

---

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes the Wage Price Index (WPI) quarterly, measuring changes in the price of labor, unaffected by shifts in workforce composition, hours worked, or employee characteristics.

The ABS provides detailed WPI data, including breakdowns by industry and sector, offering insights into wage trends across Australia's economy.

Deribit, the world’s premier Bitcoin and Ethereum options exchange, in partnership with SignalPlus, a leading options trading dashboard and analytics hub, is excited to unveil the second edition of the Winter Trading Competition 2024.

This year's competition offers participants a $200,000 USDC prize pool, along with various prizes such as iPhones, PlayStation 5s, and other rewards. Additionally, participants will benefit from valuable learning opportunities and insightful trading sessions designed to enhance their skills and strategies, making this the biggest and most rewarding crypto trading contest of the year.

The Winter Trading Competition 2024 is open to all retail participants who utilize their Deribit accounts to trade cryptocurrency options, futures and spot on the SignalPlus platform. Registrations are open and will remain open until December 9th 2024. The competition begins today November 4th to December 9th, 2024, spanning 35 days of intense trading action.

US Election Registration Bonus As an added incentive, traders who register by November 5 will receive a US Election Option, available as part of a limited-time bonus. Registrations remain open until December 9, 2024.

Luuk Strijers, Chief Executive Officer at Deribit, “We’re thrilled to launch the second edition of our trading competition in collaboration with SignalPlus. Following the remarkable success of last year’s iteration, we are excited to raise the bar even higher this time. The growth and enthusiasm we witnessed have inspired us to expand the competition, offering even more opportunities for participants to showcase and expand their skills.”

Competition Highlights:

• Prizes and Rewards: Compete in both individual and team categories, with special bonuses for team leaders and daily prize draws.
• Referral Program: Up to 10,000 USDC in rewards is available through a referral program for inviting others to register and trade on Deribit.
• Sign-Up Incentives : Bonuses are available for all registrations, first trades, and inviting friends, with participants eligible for prizes that range from cash rewards to tech products.
• Luxury and Variety: Participants have the chance to win various rewards, including iPhone 16s, iPads, Apple Watches, cash prizes in USDC, and travel to Thailand.
• Prestigious Recognition: Top individual winners will earn honorary certificates, while winning teams will take home trophies.
• Learning opportunities: Participants will also gain access to six master-level options AMAs (Ask Me Anything sessions) and Deribit’s product training hosted by industry experts, available absolutely free. These sessions are designed to elevate trading skills.

Chris Yu, Co-Founder of SignalPlus, added: “We’re excited to collaborate with Deribit on this landmark trading competition. At SignalPlus, our mission is to enhance the trading experience through innovation, and this event reflects that commitment. By combining our advanced technology with Deribit’s robust platform, we’re offering participants an unparalleled opportunity to engage with crypto options in fresh, dynamic ways, pushing the boundaries of strategy and skill.”

Competition Rules and Rewards:

• Individual Race: Individual participants will compete through semi-final and final stages, with prizes awarded to the top 35 traders. The highest-ranking trader will earn up to 5,000 USDC.
• Team Contest: The top five teams will win prizes ranging from 1,000 to 5,000 USDC. Additionally, each day for 35 days, one team member will win a luxurious trip to Thailand.
• Daily Draws: For 35 consecutive days, 111 lucky participants will win cash rewards daily.
• Daily Lucky Ranks: Every day, 9 special traders will receive prizes ranging from 10 to 300 USDC.
• Extra Incentives: Over 10,000 bonus prizes are available for registering, inviting friends, and making your first trade – the rewards keep flowing!

Key Details:

• Prize Pool: 200,000 USDC.
• Registration Period: October 23rd – December 9th, 2024.
• Competition Period: November 4th – December 9th, 2024.

Seize the opportunity to compete with top traders globally and start your journey toward exciting prizes today!

About Deribit

Deribit (https://www.deribit.com/) is a centralized, institutional-grade crypto derivatives exchange for options and futures trading. With state-of-the-art infrastructure, Deribit offers instantaneous price discovery, low-latency trading, advanced risk mitigation services, and deep liquidity through a network of top-tier market makers. Led by a team with decades of experience in options trading across all markets, Deribit facilitates a significant majority of all crypto options trading and adheres to robust proof of assets and liabilities procedures to ensure the highest standards.

About SignalPlus

SignalPlus provides a world-class options trading dashboard that covers risk tracking, profit/loss attribution, strike and theta analysis. Users can execute multi-legged orders with embedded algorithms to minimize slippage and conduct in-depth profit/loss and exposure assessments using simulation tools and scenario analysis. SignalPlus also automates delta hedging across varying market conditions and offers real-time trade notifications through Telegram, empowering traders with the insights and tools needed for successful trading.

Legend of Arcadia (LoA), a new card-based RPG set in an expansive universe inspired by Kingdom Hearts, is bringing a community-driven operational model to Web3 gaming. With a focus on sustainable growth, LoA aims to establish itself as a leading platform by integrating blockchain technology, unique NFT mechanics, and community-centric features that foster long-term player engagement.

As the Web3 gaming industry is forecasted to grow to $305 billion by 2030, LoA stands out by addressing key sustainability issues that have previously limited the success of Web3 gaming ventures. Many blockchain-based games have struggled with player retention and engagement, often due to unsustainable reward systems. LoA’s approach, built on years of gaming experience from its team’s work with industry leaders like Tencent, Hero Entertainment, and Seasun Studios, centers on creating an inclusive, feedback-driven community.

Community-driven growth and operations

Legend of Arcadia (LoA), a card-based RPG game built on a vast story universe inspired by Kingdom Hearts, has a strong vision for reimagining live operations in Web3, called community-driven operations. The formula combines building a sticky and vocal community driven by a strong feedback loop and nimble implementation of the ideas. This has helped LoA stand out from others.

The team has spent the past two years perfecting the formula based on their decade-long experience in driving high DAU and retention at leading game companies such as Tencent, Hero Entertainment, and Seasun Studios. At the same time, building a 60k+ strong community with users that actively interact with the team and provide them with feedback.

The right feedback loop between the community and the developer has led to innovative tactics for driving community engagement.

For example, rather than hosting traditional alpha tests, the team mixed the idea of esports and competition and invited people to form their own teams to compete during the test. This led to a brand-new Guild called Alter Ego Guild being formed in the community, and they remain some of the game’s biggest supporters, helping new players onboard and get deep into LoA.

During its three-month campaign, LoA had 100,000+ registered users with minimal marketing spend. It also has very high next-day and 7-day retention of 75% and 56%, respectively, higher than many traditional games' 50% and 20%. As it moves towards its TGE and official game launch, the community continues to provide feedback and support the team.

With backing from 10+ investors, including Animoca Brands and OKX Ventures, LoA can further develop the game's vastness, ensuring the community is constantly engaged with new content and utilities of its native token, $ARCA. This ranges from the endless possibilities of different NFT heroes to the countless actions and ways to earn $ARCA tokens.

Innovative NFT Mechanics and Extensive Gameplay

In LoA, each NFT hero is unique, with randomized genetic traits such as appearance and abilities drawn from a large gene pool of over five trillion combinations, including over 48 types of basic attributes, 40,000+ skill combinations, and more than 28 million gene combinations. This ensures that no two NFT heroes are the same.

The game team, supported by AI, has also created countless words and storylines, shaping different toy characters and enriching the stories of LoA. It also enhances player retention by implementing seasonal demands created by the in-game mechanics, which will eventually boost the trading volume.

$ARCA Token Distribution and Roadmap

In LoA, players can earn tokens through a variety of activities and strategies involving their NFT heroes. Inspired by a system commonly used in web2 games, by combining White Ores from mining with Black Ores earned in battles, they can produce $ARCA tokens. Heroes can also be customized through special events and features, which not only alter their appearance but can also provide gameplay advantages, such as enhanced mining power when using event-specific skins.

Players can also participate in PvE content by clearing dungeons and defeating bosses for valuable loot or diving into PvP battles to compete against others for rewards and climb seasonal leaderboards for even greater gains. To further boost their earnings, players can stake $ARCA tokens, unlocking additional rewards like free NFTs or a share of profits from NFT sales, adding another layer of value to their in-game investments.

In addition to earning tokens through in-game monetization, LoA further enhances sustainability by distinguishing between in-game and external economic factors. This structure allows players to monetize external elements, such as staking $ARCA tokens for special privileges and rewards or sharing in proceeds from NFT assets. This approach aims to foster long-term value creation over short-term speculative gains.

LoA will have a total supply of 40,000,000 $ARCA tokens that are distributed among seven pools where each pool will be further subdivided into different rank tiers based on the amount of Gacha Points earned.

With countless opportunities and activities in the world of LoA, the game constantly rejuvenates the excitement of its community and players, which will ensure its sustainability in the long run. The game also has plans for extensive single-player content (PVE mode) and multiplayer modes where players can form teams and challenge others in real-time battles. Legend of Arcadia is currently set to launch in November 2024.

About Legend of Arcadia

Legend of Arcadia (LOA) (https://legendofarcadia.io/) is a card-based RPG game built on a vast story universe inspired by Kingdom Hearts. LOA is built with the latest technology for the modern gamer, powered by blockchain. Players can enjoy the game for free, on the go, on a mobile device, and socialize in real-time with gamers from across the globe through immersive PvP game modes and by trading highly composable NFTs.

The U.S. presidential election draws near, and investors are on high alert as the outcomes of Kamala Harris's and Donald Trump's contrasting economic policies could have significant ramifications for the financial markets. With key decisions looming around tax rates, regulation, energy policy, and trade, the potential for market volatility increases depending on who gets into the White House and what the new balance of power in the U.S. Congress will be. In this article, Octa Broker's financial analyst, Kar Yong Ang, breaks down the candidates' divergent economic visions and outlines possible scenarios for market reactions post-election, offering critical insights for traders to navigate the uncertain financial landscape ahead.

With less than a day to go until the U.S. presidential election, investors and traders are bracing for the potential impact on the financial markets. Although both candidates (Kamala Harris and Donald Trump) proclaim to pursue similar goals–––notably, creating jobs and boosting the U.S. manufacturing base–––they offer very different approaches to economic policy. Therefore, financial markets will almost certainly respond differently depending on who ultimately gets into the White House. Furthermore, it is important to factor in the possible changes in the arrangement of power on Capitol Hill, as 33 out of 100 senators and all 435 delegates in the House of Representatives will also seek re-election this November.

At Octa Broker, we decided to offer our view about what to expect from the upcoming elections and what could be the possible impact on the financial markets in general and on gold and the U.S. dollar in particular. Before we lay out the possible scenarios, let’s first briefly recap the economic policy visions of Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party candidate, and of former President Donald Trump, the Republican Party nominee, and underline their key differences. Please note that this article will focus specifically on the candidates' economic policies that are expected to have the most impact on the financial markets and affect an average trader. Thus, the general focus is on tax policy, regulation, energy policy, foreign policy, and tariffs. The article will not delve into the details of other policies, such as abortion rights, immigration, housing, and healthcare policy.

Table 1: Comparing the Candidates

‘When you wake up on 6 November to check the results of the U.S. presidential elections, there are two things to keep in mind’, argues Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker. ‘Firstly, it is vital to realise just how decisive the victory of either of the candidates is. Secondly, it is very important to ascertain the new composition of the Legislative Branch'. Indeed, if either Harris or Trump wins the national popular vote with only a slim majority or the Electoral College produces mixed and uncertain results, the investors may get nervous, and market volatility will rise. ‘Contesting results are not good for the markets, as they may trigger disputes among the parties and delay important economic decisions in the best-case scenario and lead to social unrest and violence in the worst case’, Karr says.

The composition of the House and the Senate is equally important as they will largely determine the ultimate balance of power and the direction of the legislation. According to ABC News simulation, Republicans win control of the Senate 88 times out of 100[1], meaning that it is highly unlikely that the Democratic Party can manage to take out the upper chamber of the U.S. Congress. When it comes to the House of Representatives, however, the chances are 50/50. Thus, it seems reasonable to infer that only four potential scenarios exist in this election (see the table below).

Table 2: Possible Scenarios and the Dollar Impact

Scenarios 1 and 2

Scenarios 1 and 2 assume that Kamala Harris becomes the next President of the United States, but her executive power is severely or partly limited. In case Republicans capture both the House and the Senate, Harris's policy initiatives will be blocked or substantially amended. On balance, a Harris presidency facing a hostile Congress would bring about a politically unstable and unpredictable environment, which investors despise. As a result, the economy will underperform, stocks will decline, and the dollar will weaken.

‘A government paralysed by dysfunction and gridlock is the worst-case scenario for the U.S. economy in general and for the U.S. dollar in particular’, says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker. ‘The probability of a protracted government shutdown is very high under this scenario. U.S. stock market indices will certainly take a hit’.

Indeed, Harris's progressive initiatives on climate and the environment will be blocked, while fiscal and economic policy will become a key point of contention, leading to a major standoff over the budget. At the same time, Harris's presidency might result in less government spending, which will have a disinflationary impact, enabling the Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue reducing interest rates. That, too, however, will have a long-term bearish impact on the U.S. dollar.

In turn, the greenback's weakness may have a bullish impact on commodities, especially gold, as it will become more affordable for holders of other currencies. Another bullish factor for commodities in general and for gold, in particular, is that the conflict in Eastern Europe will likely drag on under Harris, given that she has been more in favour of supplying the weapons rather than pushing for a peace deal.

‘All in all, I think Harris's presidency will be met with a bearish reaction in U.S. equity markets–––especially in the energy sector. Companies focusing on renewables may perform better but still suffer in the long term as Harris will struggle to push her environmental agenda. The U.S. dollar will almost certainly sell off, while the euro and Chinese yuan will strengthen’, concludes Kar Yong Ang.

Scenarios 3 and 4

Scenarios 3 and 4 assume that Donald Trump becomes the next President of the United States, but his executive power will either be partly limited by the Democratic House or, alternatively, he manages to achieve a sweeping victory with the Republican Party taking full control over both chambers of Congress. In this case, investors will likely cheer (at least in the short term), as Trump promises to cut red tape and reduce taxes. Stock indices will rally, and the dollar may strengthen. Still, there will be long-term risks associated with Trump’s trade policy.

‘The fears over U.S. debt sustainability will certainly rise under Trump’, says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker. ‘He will extend as well as enlarge the tax cuts, essentially bringing about a loose fiscal policy, which, in turn, will force the Fed to be hawkish’. Indeed, a Republican sweep victory is the most bullish scenario for the greenback in the midterm. Inflationary tax cuts will boost the economy and may potentially force the Fed to stop its rate-cutting campaign, which will support the U.S. dollar vs other currencies. However, the U.S.'s gigantic deficit will likely keep expanding. Reuters estimates that Donald Trump’s tax cut plans would add some $3.6 trillion to $6.6 trillion to federal deficits over a decade.

On the one hand, tax cuts may serve as a catalyst for U.S. economic growth, which should support oil prices, especially given that Trump is likely to enforce stricter sanctions against Iran. On the other hand, U.S. crude oil and natural gas output may rise as the Trump administration will likely support the companies engaged in fossil fuel production.

Trade policy is not expected to be Trump’s top priority, but he may still introduce new tariffs in 2025-2026. First and foremost, this will negatively affect China and its currency, the yuan. At the same time, Trump’s victory will be a major bullish factor for the crypto industry in general and for digital currencies in particular. He made no secret of his support for crypto and even advocated for the establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve.

‘All in all, I think Trump’s presidency will be met with a bullish reaction in U.S. equity markets–––especially in the energy sector, and especially in case of a sweeping victory. Companies with a focus on renewables will underperform, bitcoin will rally, while the euro and the Chinese yuan will fall. However, the market has already partly priced in Trump’s victory. Therefore, in a classic ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ scenario, the asset prices I just mentioned may actually drop immediately after the election, but will likely remain supported in 2025’, concludes Kar Yong Ang.

About Octa

Octa is an international broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and a variety of services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools.

The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including the improvement of educational infrastructure and short-notice relief projects supporting local communities.

Since its foundation, Octa has won more than 70 awards, including the ‘Best Forex Broker 2023’ award from AllForexRating and the ‘Best Mobile Trading Platform 2024’ award from Global Brand Magazine.

Warped Games, an indie game studio consisting of web3 and veteran game developers who have a legacy in creating player-focused games like LEGO Universe, Jumpgate, and Dragons and Titans, is on a mission to onboard millions of players to expand the Warped Universe, an immersive blockchain-powered game where players’ actions and decisions shape the environment and influence each season’s direction. After extensive exploration, Warped Games selected Sui as the blockchain to support this ambitious vision, thanks to its player-friendly approach and innovations in the Move language.

The announcement of Warped Games becoming an official partner with Mysten Labs arrives at a pivotal moment for blockchain gaming. With games like "Off The Grid" making strides toward mainstream adoption, this new collaboration marks another significant step in expanding blockchain gaming’s reach to a wider audience.

James Wing, Head of AAA Gaming Partnerships for Mysten Labs, commented on the official partnership: "Warped Games embodies what is exciting about this industry - founders and products that are built with passion to boldly address the wants of modern gamers. We are tremendously excited to partner with our friends at Warped and aid them in their journey to pioneer a new age of games on Sui."

Warped Universe: Empowering Players

Player empowerment is at the core of Warped Universe’s design. Here, players will be able to engage in PvE action in single-player or co-op mode, with an innovative multi-genre design giving players the flexibility to choose between turn-based or real-time genres across both ground and space gameplay. Players will also get to choose missions that influence the broader “meta-game,” affecting the balance of light and gravity for all, leading to wild and chaotic scenarios as each season aims to build a unique solar system in the Universe. This level of control redefines what it means to participate in a player-driven virtual world.

Breaking Barriers to Blockchain Accessibility

One of the largest obstacles facing blockchain adoption today is its intimidating complexity for newcomers. Traditional blockchain experiences involve managing seed phrases, navigating wallets, high fees, slow speed, and unfriendly, often intimidating transactions—barriers that can alienate potential users. Sui’s design eliminates these hurdles by offering a seamless, user-friendly blockchain experience required by games like Warped Universe, aiming to appeal to a mainstream gaming audience.

With Sui’s zkLogin feature, players can access the blockchain and create wallets using familiar credentials, like passkeys or existing logins, removing the need for seed phrases and technical know-how. For those who prefer greater control, Warped Universe will also allow players to connect their own self-custodied wallets, giving them the option to manage their assets independently. This accessibility empowers users to focus on what matters most—the game experience itself.

Enhanced NFT Utility with Move

Sui’s Move language and object model empower Warped Universe to create NFTs that go beyond static assets, offering dynamic, context-rich tokens that evolve with each player’s journey. Sui treats each asset as an individual, on-chain object with unique IDs and customizable fields, allowing NFTs to reflect player progression and deepen in-game immersion.

Innovations extend to the use of closed-loop tokens for in-game purchases and season pass NFTs, which act as "time capsules", allowing players to revisit exclusive content from past seasons. With each season in Warped Universe serving as a self-contained story arc, these season passes aren’t just NFTs—they’re gateways to the game’s evolving history, creating lasting value and enhancing player ownership.

Kiosk: Marketplace Re-Imagined

Kiosk is a decentralized system designed for commerce applications on the Sui network, similar to traditional markets where vendors sell goods or services from small, standalone booths. Just like in those markets, where individual sellers operate their own kiosks, owning the products on display and managing their own sales, with Kiosk, shared objects are owned by individual parties who store assets and may list them for sale as well as utilizing custom trading functionality, such as royalties and the ability to rent assets.

Walrus: Re-Defining Digital Ownership in Warped Universe

As Warped Universe expands, decentralized storage will play a crucial role in ensuring the authenticity and accessibility of in-game assets. Mysten Labs’ Walrus protocol is set to support this need, providing a secure and efficient way to store raw data and media files—such as images, audio, video, and other game assets—at low cost without compromising performance. Unlike traditional NFTs, which often store metadata off-chain on platforms like IPFS or AWS, Walrus enables both the NFT and its metadata to be stored in a decentralized manner. This integration introduces new ways for players in Warped Universe to experience genuine ownership of their digital assets, giving them the ability to store in-game captures or statistics, and creating a more immersive and reliable player-driven experience.

High Performance, Scalability, and Environmental Responsibility

In Warped Universe, players aren’t just playing a game; they’re building and defending entire solar systems each season, with their achievements and digital assets minted and transacted on-chain in the background. This model requires a blockchain capable of handling high transaction volumes both efficiently and affordably. Sui’s high throughput and low transaction costs make this possible, providing fast, cost-effective, and seamless on-chain transactions that support a robust gaming economy.

Sui also prioritizes environmental sustainability by using a delegated proof-of-stake (DPoS) consensus model rather than energy-intensive proof-of-work. With its efficient Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) architecture, Sui can process large transaction volumes with minimal environmental impact—aligning perfectly with Warped Games’ vision of a sustainable, responsible gaming ecosystem.

“With Sui, we can create an immersive, evolving on-chain gaming ecosystem where players can own, modify, and evolve assets without compromising the gaming experience,” said Adam Straney, Managing Director at Warped Games. “This approach lets us build an interconnected universe on a blockchain that’s fast, scalable, and environmentally responsible, supporting our vision of an accessible, seamless player-owned economy. Gamers can focus on having fun, with blockchain as a supportive tool rather than the centerpiece."

Looking Ahead with Warped Universe and Sui

Currently, the blockchain element in Warped Universe is the $WARPED token, an ERC-20 token designed to give holders a voice in game design, seasonal voting, discounts, potential rewards, and exclusives. While specific plans for the token’s future are yet to be announced, the Warped Universe team is committed to keeping current holders top of mind as they explore expanding to the Sui blockchain. Plans for the WARPED token, on-chain assets, skins, seasonal passes, and other elements will be shared in due time—stay tuned for updates.

As Warped Universe continues to develop, the teams at Warped Games and Mysten Labs are dedicated to working closely together to explore practical blockchain integration in games, enhancing player ownership, scalability, and immersive gameplay. Together, through Warped Universe and the Sui blockchain, they’re building a unique, player-driven experience that showcases the future of blockchain gaming.

About Warped Games

Warped Games (https://warped.games/) is an indie game studio dedicated to creating immersive, player-driven gaming experiences with a focus on blockchain integration. Known for pushing the boundaries of web3 technology, the team behind Warped Games combines industry veterans from both gaming and tech to bring innovative worlds like Warped Universe to life.

About Mysten Labs

Mysten Labs is a technology company focused on advancing blockchain infrastructure to support next-generation applications. Founded by experts in distributed systems, Mysten Labs developed the Sui blockchain, a high-performance, user-friendly platform designed to make blockchain technology accessible and scalable for mainstream audiences.

In brief from WPAC's note:

• September quarter Wage Price Index below the RBA’s expectation which pointed to a 0.9%qtr rise in both the September and December quarters of 2024
• Wage inflation peaked at 4.3%yr in December 2023 and has been drifting lower through 2024
• Wage Price Index (WPI) rose 0.8% (3.5%yr) ... The RBA is currently forecasting annual wages growth to print 3.4%yr for end 2024 and hold at that rate through to June 2025.

***

The WPI should easily come in under that RBA forecast by end 2024. While some will point to slowing wages as a reason to cut rates the RBA is in no hurry, still war of elevated demand and inflation likely to pop back above the top of the 2 - 3% target band once government cost of living subsidies roll off.

0945 GMT / 0445 US Eastern time - Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann is a panellist on the Female Central Bankers panel organised by BNP Paribas’ Global Markets

*

The Bank of England cut last week

• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 7 Nov: FOMC/BOE cuts by 25 basis points

Expectations are for slower cuts ahead:

• More gradual Bank of England rate cuts = support for GBP

At 10 am Sydney time on Thursday, November 14, 2024,

• Panel Participation by RBA Governor Michele Bullock, at the ASIC Annual Forum, Sydney
• that's 2300 GMT, 1800 US Eastern time on Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Perhaps we'll hear something on wages data from earlier today:

• Australia data - Wage Price Index for Q3 2024: +0.8% q/q (expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%)

But, probably not:

• Australia - "Wage inflation is moderating as expected"

The RBA next meet on December 9 and 10 and no change to the cash rate is widely expected.

We had Fed speakers on Tuesday US time, Kashkari watered down the prospect of a December rate cut ... didn;t rule it out but he sounds shaky:

• Fed's Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I'm optimistic that will continue
• Fed's Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolves
• Fed's Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook

The agenda ahead includes another three. The times below are GMT/US Eastern time format:

• 1435/0935 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks before hybrid "Energy and the Economy: Meeting Rising Energy Demand" Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City
• 1800/1300 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks before an Economic Club of Memphis luncheon
• 1830/1330 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid gives luncheon keynote before hybrid "Energy and the Economy: Meeting Rising Energy Demand" Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City

The dollar continues to sit in a good spot this week, holding gains ahead of the main event later today. It's all about the US CPI report and markets are likely to remain more tentative up until then. As for the bigger picture, the post-election sentiment continues to play out for the most part and that remains the larger focus.

For now, USD/JPY is one to watch as it closes in on the 155.00 mark currently. That will mark the first time since the end of July that the pair is taking a run at the figure level. Is Tokyo going to step up with their verbal interventions? There's going to be little technical resistance in between this pocket here and 160.00 next.

Besides that, EUR/USD is also in focus as the pair closes in on the April low of 1.0601. Large option expiries are in play for now but it's hard to ignore the stronger dollar post-election. If that breaks, sellers will be eyeing the 1.0500 level next before the October lows from last year seen at 1.0448-51.

• German DAX futures -0.2%
• French CAC 40 futures -0.4%
• UK FTSE futures -0.1%

The CAC 40 index is now down to its lowest since mid-August while the DAX is eyeing its October lows of 18,911. This comes with US futures also marked down so far on the day. S&P 500 futures are lower by 0.3% as we look to the session ahead.

• Expects inflation to moderate in France
• Expects French unemployment rate to go up to around 8% before falling back

He is speaking somewhat in his capacity as Bank of France governor here. And the remarks aren't anything that stand out. As things stand, traders have fully priced in a rate cut for December. The odds of a 25 bps move are at ~68% with the remainder tied to a 50 bps rate cut.

• Eurostoxx -0.3%
• Germany DAX -0.2%
• France CAC 40 -0.1%
• UK FTSE +0.1%
• Spain IBEX flat
• Italy FTSE MIB -0.2%

There's some push and pull in the opening stages but the changes here don't take away from the heavy selling yesterday. As mentioned since last week, the outlook for European indices remain challenging considering the more dour economic outlook in the region. So far today, US futures are also a little more subdued with S&P 500 futures down 0.3%.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) today announced the launch of “Voices From the Field,” a new digital campaign highlighting stories of local broadcasters through first-person accounts. The campaign, part of NAB’s “We Are Broadcasters” initiative, will spotlight how broadcasters are using their expertise, experience and dedication to local broadcasting to serve their audiences and uplift their communities.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust, Commercial, and Administrative Law is holding a hearing titled "Reviving Competition, Part 2: Saving the Free and Diverse Pres."

Washington, D.C. – The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) is now accepting nominations for the 2021 NAB Marconi Radio Awards and will be accepting submissions until May 31. Established in 1989 and named for inventor and Nobel Prize winner Guglielmo Marconi, the prestigious awards recognize overall excellence and performance in radio.

WASHINGTON, DC -- A bipartisan coalition of 77 members of the House of Represenatives and eight Senators have joined together to introduce resolutions in Congress opposing "any new performance fee, tax, royalty, or other charge" on local broadcast radio stations. The Local Radio Freedom Act (LRFA) signals members of Congress's opposition to any potential legislation that would impose new performance royalties on broadcast radio stations for music airplay.

Washington, D.C. -- PILOT, NAB's technology innovation initiative, will be accepting submissions for the PILOT Innovation Challenge through 5 p.m. ET on July 9. The program will provide mentorship and promotion to winning proposals, along with an opportunity to demonstrate their products at NAB Show in Las Vegas, October 9-13, 2021. 

Washington, D.C. -- The regulatory framework governing ownership of broadcast radio and television stations harms broadcasters’ ability to compete in the marketplace, impedes localism and fails to promote diversity in ownership, the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) said in comments filed with the Federal Communications Commission (FCC).

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- In response to polling conducted by musicFIRST regarding a performance royalty on local broadcast radio stations for music airplay, the following statement can be attributed to NAB President and CEO Gordon Smith:

Washington, D.C. -- The 2022 NAB Show, April 23–27, will feature distinct destinations focused on three main pillars associated with the content lifecycle. Designated “Create,” “Connect” and “Capitalize,” and situated throughout the North Hall, Central Hall and new West Hall of the Las Vegas Convention Center, each area offers renewed opportunities for learning, discovery and engagement.

Washington, D.C. -- PILOT, NAB's technology innovation initiative, is now accepting submissions for the PILOT Innovation Challenge through 5 p.m. ET on January 31. The program will provide mentorship and promotion to winning proposals, along with an opportunity to demonstrate their products at NAB Show in Las Vegas, April 23-27, 2022.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) today announced the hire of Bradford Caldwell as vice president of Member Experience. Caldwell, who starts on February 1, will report to Executive Vice President of Industry Affairs April Carty-Sipp.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Hubbard Broadcasting Senior Vice President and General Manager Joel Oxley testified today before the Senate Judiciary Committee's Subcommittee on Competition Policy, Antitrust, and Consumer Rights at a hearing titled "Breaking the News – Journalism, Competition, and the Effects of Market Power on a Free Press."