The TLMI Printing Excellence Awards celebrate outstanding printing and converting achievements in the North American Label and Packaging Industry.

Elizabeth Key was a principal in one of the important early court cases that shaped the evolving law of slavery in seventeenth-century Virginia. Born to a mother of African descent and her white owner, Thomas Key, she was transferred to another owner in 1636 for a designated period of nine years. She remained in service for well beyond that period, marrying a white man in the meantime and converting to Christianity. Upon the death of a third owner, Key sued for her freedom, citing the 1636 agreement. She won in Northumberland County but the General Court overturned the ruling. Key appealed to the General Assembly, which found that the status of the father determined the status of the child, that her faith supported her freedom, and that she deserved to be free. The county court subsequently freed her with compensation. In 1662, perhaps a result of the case, the General Assembly passed a law making the status of a child dependent on the mother and not the father. The next year, the assembly passed another law specifying that an enslaved person's conversion to Christianity did not confer freedom on that person.
Wed, 16 Dec 2020 09:16:43 EST

Members of the United States House of Representatives are listed here in alphabetical order. Each entry includes life dates if known, a member's area of residence when first elected, period of service, and party affiliation when known. Before 1795 and again from the 1810s into the 1830s there were no well-organized political parties or parties were in flux, and for those time periods no affiliation is listed. Between 1795 and the 1810s most members are identified as Federalists or as Democratic-Republicans. The eight men who were elected to the House of Representatives in 1865 but not seated are also included in this list. John Mercer Langston, elected in 1890, was the first African American elected to Congress from Virginia. Leslie Larkin Byrne, elected in 1992, was the first woman elected to Congress from Virginia.
Mon, 04 Jan 2021 09:26:01 EST

The Virginia State Corporation Commission was created by the Constitution of 1902. Its responsibilities include issuing charters of incorporation, policing financial industries such as banking and insurance, regulating rates that common carriers charge for freight and passengers, and enforcing the laws that govern rates charged by such public utilities as electric and telephone companies. Because the commission promulgates regulations, operates regulatory agencies, and hears appeals on some kinds of administrative matters, it exercises legislative, executive, and judicial functions and has sometimes been referred to as the fourth branch of state government. The commission consists of three members who serve six-year terms, one term expiring every second year. The governor appointed members from to 1903 to 1919; voters elected members from 1919 to 1928; and the General Assembly named members after 1928. If a vacancy occurs when the assembly is not in session, the governor appoints a new member. The first commissioners took office on March 1, 1903.
Wed, 13 Jan 2021 11:26:11 EST

What do you charge for your teaching? If you want to take a fresh look at your tuition model, join us on Wednesday for an online discussion about this most important subject.

Recently, we asked, "What's one thing you wish you knew before starting your own private music studio?" Here are some of the comments we received.

Heads up for a barrage of Fed speakers due Tuesday 12 November 2024:

10:00 AM ET / 1500 GMT

• Fed's Waller (Governor, Voter) speech (the topic is 'payments')

10:15 AM ET / 1515 GMT

• Fed's Barkin (Richmond Fed President, non-voter) speech

2:00 PM ET / 1900 GMT

• Fed's Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed President, non-voter)

5:00 PM ET / 2200 GMT

• Fed's Harker (Philadelphia Fed President, non-voter) speech

5:30 PM ET / 2230 GMT

• Fed's Barkin (Richmond Fed President, non-voter) speaks again

• It is just a question of how far and how fast
• Rate cut last week does not mean that the job is done
• Labour market data today show pay growth still at high levels
• There is still some work to be done on underlying domestic inflation pressures

All that being said, Pill argues that there has been "substantial" disinflation in the UK already. To summarise, it just means that they are not necessarily going to cut rates at every coming meeting. However, they are making it clear that they do have the option to do so if need be.

The New York Federal Reserve branch's Roberto Perli is manager of the Fed’s System Open Market Account (SOMA).

• Recent quarter-end money market volatility not historically large.
• Still strong evidence reserve levels remain abundant.
• No imminent signs of issues for Fed to implement monetary policy.
• Recent quarter-end pressure was contained.
• Slow rise in repo rates has been orderly.
• Standing repo facility stands ready to provide liquidity.
• Notes there’s been more friction in money markets lately.

---

The Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) is the central portfolio used by the Federal Reserve to conduct monetary policy. It holds the securities that the Fed buys and sells through open market operations, primarily U.S. Treasury securities, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities. SOMA is a key tool for influencing short-term interest rates and managing the money supply. By adjusting the size and composition of this portfolio, the Fed can influence liquidity, credit conditions, and the overall stance of monetary policy in the economy.

In addition to domestic assets, SOMA also holds foreign currency assets, allowing the Fed to participate in foreign exchange markets when necessary. The New York Federal Reserve Bank manages SOMA on behalf of the entire Federal Reserve System.

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

And they are for EUR/USD at the 1.0930 and 1.0950 levels. If anything else, the expiries should help to keep price action more locked in that range in the session ahead. All that before we get to US trading of course, where we could see volatility and market action pick up before the weekend.

There are also some modest ones for USD/CAD and AUD/USD. However, given prevailing spot levels, the expiries are unlikely to feature into play.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0950 level. That sits near the 100-hour moving average at 1.0949 currently with the bigger picture focus being on the pair's 100-day moving average at 1.0935. Keeping below both is underscoring a more downside bias, so the expiries here adds an extra layer to that for the session ahead at least.

Then, there is a relatively large one for USD/JPY at the 149.00 level. If anything else, that could put a floor on price action at least until the expiries roll off later in the day. That especially with it being a partial US holiday to start the new week, providing little incentive for markets to go running.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are some large ones on the board for today but may not feature into play given the current spot price levels.

The one for EUR/USD is seen at the 1.1000 mark but as the dollar holds firmer, it's not likely to factor into price action in the session ahead. There are also some large ones on the board for the pair in the days ahead, so we'll see if those will come into play.

Then, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6675 and 0.6775 levels. Recent price action for the pair is more of a consolidation around 0.6700 to 0.6750, so it might take a bit to break the mold in the session ahead. To the downside, there is additional support from the 100-day moving average at 0.6693 so that could limit any drop. And with the dollar keeping steadier, topside potential remains capped for now.

So, that's the state of play with regards to the larger expiries for the day.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment might be a bit more muted in the session ahead. The dollar is keeping steadier across the board, so that continues to be the running theme since two weeks ago. There's no significant extension of that this week but there's no reversal signs either as of yet.

In terms of expiries, there is a large one for EUR/USD at the 1.0950 level but given the price action we're seeing, it isn't likely to feature into play. But just in case it does, do take note of it as that could limit any upside pullback in the session ahead at least.

That being said, the 100 and 200-hour moving averages at 1.0918 and 1.0947 respectively as well as the 100-day moving average at 1.0936 are more pertinent levels to watch out for in case buyers do try and make a play.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

That being for AUD/USD at the 0.6700 level. When paired together with the technical predicament here, the expiries add another layer for buyers to have to chew through in the session ahead. As such, that might help to limit gains in European morning trade at least. That considering the dollar is also continuing to keep steadier throughout the week.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. It isn't one that ties too much with any key technical levels but the expiries could help to just keep a lid on price action for the session ahead. That considering there is little else to work with for the time being. But stronger resistance is seen closer to the 200-day moving average at 1.0871 and then the 100-hour moving average at 1.0880 currently.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0885 level. It isn't one that holds much technical significance, especially with the 100-hour moving average at 1.0866 pinning price action down for now. But it could play a role in limiting any upside extensions in the session ahead at least.

Then, there is one for USD/CAD at the 1.3800 level. That alongside the 100-hour moving average of 1.3788 could help to provide a floor for price action, at least for the session ahead for the pair.

All of this considering the lack of key catalysts to get major currencies moving to kick start the week of course.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. It coincides with the 100-hour moving average currently, which is where price action was held up in trading yesterday. As such, the expiries alongside the key near-term level there should limit any upside extensions in the session ahead at least. Not to mention that there is a large one at the same level there for tomorrow.

Then, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6675 level. It isn't one that holds much technical significance so I wouldn't the expiries to provide too much of a draw. However, it could still anchor down price action during the session especially with the 100 and 200-hour moving averages seen at 0.6688-00 currently.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. The size of the expiries is noteworthy but it might not feature too much into play as the dollar is keeping firmer this week. Besides that, there is the 100-hour moving average at 1.0834 keeping a ceiling on price action for now. As such, that could limit the influence and impact of the expiries. But if we do see it come into play, expect that to be a spot in anchoring any upside extensions.

There will be more expiries towards the downside under 1.0800 in the day ahead, so there's that to consider as well.

Besides that, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6670 level. It isn't one that ties to any technical significance again, but it could just keep price action a little stickier with little else to work with in the session ahead. Near-term upside for the pair is more limited by the 100-hour moving average at 0.6689 currently.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are quite a number on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold.

The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.0780 level through to 1.0800. That might keep price action locked in for a while until we get to the euro area PMI data later. If there is downside surprises to the data, we could even see the expiries at 1.0750 get looped into play. That might provide some base for price action if the data stirs up appetite for a 50 bps rate cut by the ECB for December.

Then, there is one for USD/JPY at the 152.00 level and that could provide a bit of a floor to any retracement in price action we're seeing on the day. That at least until the expiries roll off. But again, the bond market remains the more influential driver for the pair at this stage. So, keep that in mind.

There is also one for USD/CAD at the 1.3810 level, and that sits in between the key hourly moving averages at 1.3802-20 currently. As such, that might keep price action in check above the 1.3800 level after the BOC yesterday.

And lastly, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6640 level. I wouldn't attach too much technical significance to it though but it may yet just act as a bit of a magnet for price action before rolling off. That is if risk sentiment continues to stay more muted and pensive in general. The 200-day moving average at 0.6628 remains the more attractive level to watch for the pair currently, with upside potential more limited closer to the 100-hour moving average at 0.6676.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

The ones for EUR/USD are seen at the 1.0800 and 1.0820 levels. The ones at the former held price action yesterday before rolling off and the ones today should keep downside price action more limited in between the key levels. Looking at the near-term chart, we are seeing price hold in between the 100 and 200-hour moving averages of 1.0809 and 1.0838. So, that is also boxing things in going into the session ahead.

Then, there is one for USD/CAD at the 1.3855 level. It isn't one that holds any technical significance but may just anchor price action before we get to the Canadian retail sales data later in the day at least.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to really take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0800 level. Alongside the 100-hour moving average nearby at 1.0802 currently, it is likely to keep a lid on price action in the session ahead. That especially with higher yields continuing to underpin the dollar in general to start the new week. But the range for the day is relatively narrow, so we might see some extension plays but arguably limited by the expiries above. If anything, the 200-hour moving average at 1.0827 will act as a "safety net" of sorts in limiting any outsized price extensions with little catalysts for the time being.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

It's the same one for EUR/USD as seen yesterday, at the 1.0800 level. The expiries today are relatively large and could provide a draw/magnet for price action in the session ahead. That could very well keep the price range more limited, alongside key near-term levels.

The 200-hour moving average, seen at 1.0820 currently, is still providing a ceiling for any upside extensions. And price action is trading narrowly in between that and the 100-hour moving average, seen at 1.0803 currently. So, the expiries at 1.0800 adds to some pull in and around those levels.

That until they roll off later in the day or we get a key catalyst of sorts, which isn't likely given the lack of items on the economic calendar until US trading.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0775 and 1.0850 levels. The expiries are sandwiching the spot price at the moment with price action this week largely contained in between 1.0780 through to 1.0825. As such, the expiries will add to those defensive layers on either side.

That being said, the euro side of the equation will come into focus with plenty of CPI and GDP data in the day(s) ahead. So, just be wary of that.

In terms of technicals, the pair is consolidating somewhat after testing the August low of 1.0777. Buyers are holding on somewhat with the near-term chart also reflecting that, with price action now just above its 100 and 200-hour moving averages of 1.0809-15. But I would argue getting above the Friday high of 1.0839 will do more to convince of a potential turnaround for buyers. So, keep that in mind as well.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level and that is likely to limit price action until we get to the euro area inflation data later. The numbers there offers a risk to the single currency, but there is also still a ceiling from the 200-day moving average at 1.0868. That will be a key technical level to watch in the day ahead.

Then, there is one for USD/CHF at the 0.8650 level. With price action holding below the 100-day moving average of 0.8677 in the past few days, the expiries here could keep things more locked in until traders feel comfortable to chase the next key technical push in the pair. Just be wary that there is another large set of expiries at the same level for tomorrow too.

And lastly, there is one for EUR/GBP at the 0.8350 level. It isn't one that holds much technical significance but could offer a bit of a floor to price action after the rise yesterday, in which the pound was dragged down amid the UK budget while the euro perked up on CPI and GDP data.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

Justin is away for today. This is my sad imitation of his awesome option expiry post ;-)

Justin will be back on Monday.

EUR/USD

• 1.0900 (EUR1.1bn), 1.0840 (EUR863m)

USD/CAD

• 1.3940 (US$693m), 1.3885 (US$650m), 1.3900 (US$457m)

GBP/USD

• 1.2900 (GBP638m), 1.2850 (GBP600.4m), 1.2800 (GBP490m)

AUD/USD

• 0.6700 (AUD451m)

NZD/USD

• 0.6100 (NZD720m)

USD/CNY

• 7.1500 ($854m)

EUR/GBP

• 0.8340 (EUR719m), 0.8400 (EUR328m), 0.8200 (EUR305m)

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

The election is going to dominate early November trading so making moves based on seasonals is unwise. That said, it's useful to keep them in mind as the dust settles.

• November is the best month for USD/JPY
• Best month for the Nasdaq
• Third-best month for the US dollar
• The November through February is strong for gold
• Second-best month for the S&P 500
• Second-best month for the MSCI world index
• Second-best month for the German DAX
• Best month for the Nikkei 225
• The final month of the seasonal slump for oil. Seasonals neutral in Dec-Jan then strongly positve from Feb-June

Going into last November, the S&P 500 had declined for three straight months but that month marked a turning point as it recouped nearly all the gains in what was the beginning of a five-month rally. This time, we're coming into the month with better momentum, though October was negative for stocks.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 level. The figure level isn't one that holds any technical significance but the expiries could well help to box in price action in the session ahead. That without much fresh headlines involving the US election in the meantime. However, with the dollar under pressure, there is still a chance of European traders following through on the earlier price action. So, that's something to be wary about.

Then, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6600 level. The expiries are pretty huge and sits near the 200-hour moving average of 0.6599 currently. But the pair is largely driven by dollar dynamics to start the week, with the greenback opening with a gap down on US election sentiment. That is still the key driver to watch in the session(s) ahead but just note of the 200-day moving average at 0.6627 for the pair. That will be the bigger key level to watch on the charts for now.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

And they are for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 and 1.0900 levels. Considering the focus on the US election, this will keep price action more boxed in going into European trading and before we get to the election rush later in the day.

Besides that, market sentiment will be largely driven by election headlines over the next few sessions more so than anything else.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. But on a day like this, the influence of the expiries is far from the first thing in driving or impacting trading sentiment. It's all about the US election and the momentum flows riding from the results and emotions. As such, I wouldn't place much emphasis on the large one at 1.0725 currently for EUR/USD.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0725 and 1.0775 levels. To some degree, the expiries might just lock price action in between these levels but it's all about post-election sentiment now. And momentum flows will be the key driver of the moves, in particular the dollar. For now though, the greenback is seeing a slight pullback to yesterday's gains. So, the ones at 1.0775 could help to just keep a lid on things until we get to US trading at least.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

And again, they are all for EUR/USD layered in between 1.0750 through to 1.0800. Post-election sentiment is still the name of the game in driving FX flows now, so the expiries are just secondary drivers alongside everything else at the moment. That being said, they could play a role in keeping price action more boxed in until we get to US trading again later.

There aren't any key risk events on the calendar to really impact EUR/USD sentiment. So, it's all about how the post-election flows will settle as we look towards the end of the week.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 level. The daily lows last week were held by the figure level, so the expiries will add another layer to that as we get the new week underway at least. With the bond market absent to start the week, there might not be too much appetite for traders to chase any outsized moves.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 and 1.0625 levels. The pair is being pressured to the downside, touching its lowest levels since April now as the dollar continues to rampage forward. As such, that will put added emphasis on key support from the April low of 1.0601. The expiries above will just add a bit of a defensive layer as well, at least for the session ahead.

There will also be another notable one at 1.0600 for tomorrow, so just keep that in your back pocket in case. But for now, the post-election dollar sentiment continues to be the number one driver.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

The price of crude oil is trading down $-2.20 or -3.12% at $68.20. That's the lowest level since October 30.

The price reached a peak on Thursday at $72.84. That the price briefly above its 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high at $72.59. However on Friday, the price fell below its 100-hour moving average near $71.50 and in trading today, fell and stayed below its 200-hour moving average at $70.52. It would take a move back above the 200-hour moving average to hurt the bearish bias.

On the downside, the price is approaching a swing low going back to October 18 at $68.13. Move below that level and traders will start to look toward a rising trendline near $68.10. The low price from October 29 comes near $66.69.

Meanwhile, gasoline prices in the US are down -11.36% on the year at $3.19 (average price for all grades of gasoline). Prior to Covid, the price was around $2.78. The low at the depth of Covid reached $1.87. The current level is near the lows from the end of 2023 and start of 2024 near $3.17.

Retail Gasoline prices for all grades of gasoline

Last week, the preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 73.0. With gas prices continuing to move lower and the Trump victory, what will that do to sentiment? The high for the Biden administration reached 86.5 with the low at 50.2 in June 2022. That corresponded with the high in gasoline prices.

The USDCHF has moved higher in trading today and in the process moved above the swing highs from last week and swing area between 0.8772 to 0.8776. That area is now a close risk and bias-defining level. Staying above is more bullish.

The move above that area today has led to an increase in momentum with the price moving to and through the 50% midpoint of the move down from the Mqy 1 high. That level comes in at 0.87986 (near natural resistance at 0.8800).

The price is in trading above and below that level the last four or so hours of trading with a high price of 0.8804. Also in play on the topside is its 200-day moving average at 0.8817 and a swing area from 0.88187 to 0.88251. Get above those levels would open the door for more upside momentum.

So buyers and sellers are battling it out near the 50% midpoint and below the 200-day moving average. That is natural estranged can defined and limited risk against the technical levels. However, the price were to move above the 200-day moving average, the seller leaning now, should look to cover and push the price higher.

---------------------------------

USDCHF Summary

The USDCHF continues its upward trend, testing the 50% target level at 0.87986.

Key Levels:

Resistance

• 0.8817 (200-day MA)

• 0.88187-0.8825 (swing area)

Support

• 0.8772-0.87763 (last week's highs)

Outlook:

• Breaking above 0.88187-0.8825 opens door for more upside momentum.

• Moving below 0.8772-0.87763 gives sellers short-term advantage.

• Absent a breakdown, buyers remain in control, targeting new highs since July 31.

The USDCAD has backed backs off from ceiling area again. That area comes between 1.3945 and 1.3958.

The subsequent move to the downside has the pair heading toward 200 and 100-hour MA support targets at 1.39054 and 1.3898 respectively (green and blue lines on the chart below). A move below that level would target the rising 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.38784. Last week the price fell below that moving average line on two separate occasions only to fail and bounce back to the upside.

If the price were to get above the ceiling area, the 2022 high price comes in at 1.3977. Get above that and the price is trading at the highest level since 2020.

USDCAD Summary

The USDCAD is trending upward, approaching a key swing area between 1.3945-1.39581.

Key Levels:

Resistance

• 1.3945 to 1.3958. Swing highs over the last 7 trading days (from swing highs from Oct 31, Nov 1, 6, and 7.

• 1.3977 (2022 high)

Support

• 1.3905 - 200-hour MA)

• 1.3898 Rising 100-hour MA

Outlook:

• Break above 1.3977 targets highest level since 2020.

• Move below 1.3905 and rising 100-hour MA favors sellers.

• Otherwise, buyers maintain control, pushing for new highs.

As the North American session begins, the bond traders return after a day off in observance of Veterans Day. Yields are higher to start their trading week with the 2 year up 6.5 basis points at 4.319% and the 10 year up 6.3 basis points at 4.371%. The 2 year yield has moved to a new high going back to July 31 today (4.336%). For the 10 year, it traded as high as 4.773% last week, but fell into Friday with the low reaching 4.558% before bouncing modestly on Friday. That upside has reached 4.64% today - off the low but below the high from last week.

Bitcoin moved to a high of $89,983 today - a new record - but has come off and trades at $86,430 currently. The low reached $85208 today in volatile trading.

Oil is higher after falling over 3% lower yesterday. The price is up 43% or 0.64% at $68.52 currently. The high reached $68.76 and a low at $67.78.

Gold is down another $11 or -.045% at $2607.28. The low reached $2589.80 before bouncing.

In the US stock market, the major indices are marginally higher after record closes across the three major indices. The Russell 2000 which has not reached a high since July 2021 got within shouting distance of it record at 2437.08. The high yesterday reached 2441.72. The Dow futures are imploring a gain of 78 points. The S&P is up 1.65 points and the Nasdaq index is now up 7.91 points.

There will be several Fed speakers today with Governor Waller, Minneapolis Fed Pres. Kashkari, Philadelphia Fed Pres. Parker, and Richmond Fed Pres. Barkin all scheduled to speak

ECB policymaker Olli Rehn emphasized that while the direction of the ECB’s monetary policy is clear, the pace of any changes will be data-dependent. The economic outlook, impacted by a struggling manufacturing sector, has deteriorated. Rehn suggested that if disinflation continues, it could support additional rate cuts, with the ECB potentially moving away from restrictive policy territory by spring 2025. He warned against protectionism, noting that tariffs would have a medium-to-long-term impact and are inherently inflationary. With growth in the euro area expected to remain sluggish and downside risks prevalent, Rehn awaits the December projections for a clearer assessment of the economic landscape.

EURUSD: The selling in the EURUSD continue as a less friendly US with Pres. Elect Trump, spell slower growth with increased tariffs the concern. Technically, the price initially moved higher in the Asian session but found willing sellers near the low of the swing area between 1.0663 and 1.06703. That was swing lows in June 2024. Staying below kept the sellers in control, and they pushed lower. The price has since moved down to a low of 1.0606 which tests the lows from April when a series of swing lows bottomed the pair. Those levels are also the lows for the year (going back to October 2023).

USDJPY: The USDJPY rose yesterday and then stalled in the US session between 153.59 to 153.88 (swing area). Recall, the 153.88 level was a swing high from July 31. The highs from October 28 and October 29 was at 153.88 too. Today, the price moved lower and below the swing area low, BUT found support at the 61.8% of the move down from the July high. That level comes in at 153.397. Going forward, that hold increases that technical levels importance as support. Move below would increase the bearish bias in the short term at least.

On the topside, the price has now moved back above the 153.88 level (bullish). If the price can stay above that level now, that would be the most bullish technical scenario as buyers show their strength on the break. On the topside, the 154.54 up to 155.09 would be the next target area to stretch towards. Get above that area over time, and it adds to the bullish bias. Buyers making a play. Can they keep the momentum going?

GBPUSD:The GBPUSD fell below the lows from the last 2 weeks (last week low was at 1.28329) and sellers jumped, pushing the price through the 200 day MA at 1.28178. The breaks are more bearish and the low price reached 1.27915 and has bounced. The price has traded above and below the 200-day MA at 1.28179, but has so far stayed below the low from last week at 1.28329. If the price moves back above that level and momentum back to the upside is able to get above 1.2844 and the 50% of the move up from the April low at 1.2866, the buyers are showing some strength and the sellers will start worrying about the failures more and more. Conversely, if the price can stay below the 1.2832 and 1.2844 that keeps the sellers confidence high, but gettng below the 200-day MA is still required again. The price is currently trading near the 200-day MA but remains below 1.28329.

USDCHF: The USDCHF extended above the 200 day MA at 0.88176 and also a swing area from 0.88187 to 0.8825. That was a bullish move and the price moved to a high of 0.88303 but failed. The price is back below the 200 day MA and swing area. The price is trading near 0.8800 (0.8802 is the low). ON the downside the 50% is at 0.87986. If that is broken, then the swing area, the 200 day MA and the 50% failed. That should give buyers cause for pause as the buyers had their shot, and they missed. But the price still needs to get below 50%.

The US CPI will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET. What is expected?

• October Headline CPI expected to rise by 0.2% MoM, which is the same as last month. The forecasted range is 0.1 to 0.3%.
• YoY Headline CPI expected to increase to 2.6%, up from 2.4%, with a forecast range of 2.3 to 2.6%. A change of 0.0% will fall out of the YoY calculation this month.
• Core CPI projected to rise 0.3% MoM and 3.3% YoY, matching the previous month. The forecast range is 0.2 to 0.3% MoM and 3.2 to 3.4% Y/Y. A year ago, a gain of 0.2% falls out of the calculation.

The US PPI will be released on Thursday with the expectations of 0.2% for the MoM headline and 0.3% for the core measure.

Fed's Barkin this morning on inflation kept it simple saying::

• Inflation might be coming under control or might risk getting stuck above Fed 2% target.

Kashkari had more to say about inflation today with different influences. He said.

• Uncertainty exists around the impact of new government policies on inflation.
• A one-time tariff increase is transitory but could become a sustained issue if it escalates, introducing inflation risks.
• Immigration policy changes could have a significant effect on inflation, but the outcome is uncertain.
• Inflation from new leases will take a couple of years to work through the system.
• Housing inflation is expected to return to normal levels, but it may take a year or two.
• If inflation surprises to the upside before December, it may affect policy decisions.
• Current long-term yield increases don’t seem to reflect heightened inflation expectations.
• Higher productivity could suggest a higher neutral rate, potentially influencing future rate cuts.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

There were numerous Fed speakers on Tuesday, US time:

• Fed's Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I'm optimistic that will continue
• Fed's Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolves
• Fed's Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook

and we get one more today in Asia:

• 2200 GMT / 1700 US Eastern time - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speaks on "Fintech, AI and the Changing Financial Landscape".

Which doesn't sound too promising for remarks from him on the economy or monetary policy. But, perhaps we'll get a mortsel thrown to us in any Q&A.

***

As for the data agenda, it's a bit of a yawn, none of it likely to move around major FX upon release.

From Japan we'll get an update of wholesale inflation - the PPI for October. The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI)

• its a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output
• is calculated by the Bank of Japan

Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the price change that consumers see for a basket of goods and services, the CGPI focuses on the change in the prices of goods sold by companies.

The PPI reflects some of cost pressures faced by producers

• its based on a basket of goods that represents the range of products produced within the Japanese economy, including items such as:
  • raw materials like metals and chemicals
  • semi-finished goods
  • and finished products
  • different weights are assigned to each category within the index based on its contribution to the overall economy.
• it does not account for the quality improvements in goods and services over time, which might lead to overestimation of inflation
  • additionally, it reflects only the prices of domestically produced goods, leaving out the impact of imported goods

The PPI can be used as a guide to inflationary pressures in the economy:

• If producers are facing higher costs, they may pass these on to consumers, leading to higher consumer prices.

***

From Australia we'll get wages data for Q3. Wage growth is expected to keep slowing (y/y) in Q3 2024. With the labor market softening, upward pressure on wages has been easing over recent quarters.

In Commonwealth Bank of Australia's preview they cite their internal data as indicating a quarterly wage growth of around 0.9%, a notable decrease from the 1.3% growth seen in the same quarter last year, which had been boosted by a significant 5.75% increase in award and minimum wages. As a result, the annual wage growth rate is projected to fall to 3.6%, bringing it closer to a level compatible with sustainable, in-target inflation.

While the labour market softening, but from strong levels, the RBA is eyeing wage growth as a factor helping keep inflation sticky. A moderation in growth for wages will be welcomed by the bank if it translates into softening price pressure also.

• This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
• I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.

China-based Construction Machinery and Equipment (CME) with the data from earlier this week. In October China's excavator sales are estimated to have reached 16,791 units:

• that's +15.1% y/y

More notably, excavator sales in the Chinese domestic market are estimated at 8,266 units

• +21.6% y/y
• Excavator sales to the export market +9.46% y/y

For the January-October 2024 period this year, China's excavator sales are estimated to have increased by 0.47 percent year on year

• domestic market +9.8% y/y
• export market -7.41% y/y

Is this a sign of green shoots for the economy in China?

There has been plenty of stimulus announcements, that the market has been disappointed with. But, are thye having an impact?

Japanese wholesale prices, the PPI or CGPI:

+0.2% m/m

• expected 0.0%, prior 0.0%

+3.4% y/y

• expected +3.0%, prior +2.8%

The higher results will be a bit of a tailwind for the yen, at the margin. Not too much though, there is the huge monetary policy divergence that is weighing on the hapless yen to contend with.

Of note is that renewed yen falls pushed up import costs for some goods

The Bank of Japan is wary of yen weakness pushing up prices, the Bank wants inflation but not like that. The Bank wants inflation coming from wage growth pushing up demand. The Bank has said it'll consider raising rates to help slow or stop the yen decline. But political pressure is on the Bank not to hike until wages are seen rising at the next round of wage negotiations in (Japan's) spring.

---

The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI)

• its a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output
• is calculated by the Bank of Japan

Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the price change that consumers see for a basket of goods and services, the CGPI focuses on the change in the prices of goods sold by companies.

The PPI reflects some of cost pressures faced by producers

• its based on a basket of goods that represents the range of products produced within the Japanese economy, including items such as:
  • raw materials like metals and chemicals
  • semi-finished goods
  • and finished products
  • different weights are assigned to each category within the index based on its contribution to the overall economy.
• it does not account for the quality improvements in goods and services over time, which might lead to overestimation of inflation
  • additionally, it reflects only the prices of domestically produced goods, leaving out the impact of imported goods

The PPI can be used as a guide to inflationary pressures in the economy:

• If producers are facing higher costs, they may pass these on to consumers, leading to higher consumer prices.

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LiteFinance has entered into a multi-year partnership with Premier League football club Leicester City as their Official Trading Partner.

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Established in 2005, LiteFinance has grown into a leading online broker, offering high-speed trading services in 29 international languages. Our platform is designed to empower clients with financial freedom, providing access to a comprehensive range of trading instruments in the currency, commodity, stock, and agricultural markets. Through this partnership, we aim to bring our innovative, accessible trading solutions to a broader audience, enhancing the experience for both our clients and Leicester City’s global fanbase. Shared Values and Vision Both LiteFinance and Leicester City share a commitment to excellence, innovation, and a global outlook. The Foxes have a significant following, particularly in Southeast Asia, where they enjoy one of the largest social media reach outside of the Premier League’s traditional top six clubs. This partnership will allow LiteFinance to engage with new audiences and create memorable experiences for football fans and our clients alike. Visibility and Engagement As part of this partnership, LiteFinance will benefit from extensive brand visibility, including pitch-facing LED advertising, logo placements on interview backdrops, and a selection of digital advertising. Additionally, our clients will have exclusive access to branded promotional materials, such as custom merchandise, and will be able to participate in special contests and promotions designed to bring excitement and memorable experiences to football fans. These initiatives are tailored to enhance engagement and connect with Leicester City supporters meaningfully. Statements from Leadership Kristina Leonova, CEO of LiteFinance, commented: “We are thrilled to embark on this exciting journey with Leicester City. This partnership reflects our mutual commitment to excellence and innovation. It will allow us to connect with new audiences and create impactful experiences while delivering on our promises and setting new standards of success.”LiteFinance is proud to partner with Leicester City Football Club and looks forward to a fruitful relationship that will bring value to both organizations and the communities we serve. We are confident that this collaboration will set the stage for innovative initiatives and successful outcomes in the future. Leicester City Commercial Director, Dan Barnett, added: “This collaboration marks an exciting chapter for us as we continue to expand our global reach with new partners. We look forward to working closely with LiteFinance to further elevate the Club's presence on the international stage in unique ways.”

0945 GMT / 0445 US Eastern time - Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann is a panellist on the Female Central Bankers panel organised by BNP Paribas’ Global Markets

*

The Bank of England cut last week

• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 7 Nov: FOMC/BOE cuts by 25 basis points

Expectations are for slower cuts ahead:

• More gradual Bank of England rate cuts = support for GBP

We had Fed speakers on Tuesday US time, Kashkari watered down the prospect of a December rate cut ... didn;t rule it out but he sounds shaky:

• Fed's Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I'm optimistic that will continue
• Fed's Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolves
• Fed's Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook

The agenda ahead includes another three. The times below are GMT/US Eastern time format:

• 1435/0935 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks before hybrid "Energy and the Economy: Meeting Rising Energy Demand" Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City
• 1800/1300 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks before an Economic Club of Memphis luncheon
• 1830/1330 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid gives luncheon keynote before hybrid "Energy and the Economy: Meeting Rising Energy Demand" Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 and 1.0650 levels. The former in particular will continue to be a notable one, adding another layer to key support at the figure level for the time being. As such, the expiries are likely to once again keep price action locked in until we get to US trading later at least.

As an aside, just be wary of the larger option expiries at the same level of 1.0600 through the week. And on Friday, EUR/USD also has a very large one pinned at 1.0700. So, just be wary of that in case.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

• Headline CPI reading not telling us that underlying inflation dynamics have been vanquished
• Services inflation is pretty sticky
• Energy prices are more likely to go up than down
• Sees more volatility and upward bias to some inflation drivers

Do keep in mind that Mann is arguably the most hawkish member among the BOE policy committee. So, her comments here are not as striking as they might seem to be.

Washington, D.C. – The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB), the Donald W. Reynolds Journalism Institute (RJI) and the National Association of Chain Drug Stores (NACDS) today announced the launch of an online toolkit to help local journalists craft COVID-19 vaccine education messages that best resonate with their audiences. The toolkit is designed to provide journalists with information and resources to create news reports, public service announcements and other messages related to vaccine safety, effectiveness and distribution.

Washington, D.C. -- U.S. Rep. Karen Bass (CA-37) will be the inaugural guest in an exclusive new Spotlight Series from the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) featuring members of Congress discussing key initiatives to advance diversity, equity and inclusion and their perspectives on broadcast media.