000
WTCA41 TJSJ 192059
TCPSP1

BOLETIN
Ciclon post-tropical Nestor Advertencia Numero 10
SNM Centro Nacional de Huracanes Miami FL AL162019
Traduccion por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
500 PM CDT sabado 19 de octubre de 2019

...CICLON POST-TROPICAL NESTOR SOBRE TIERRA EN LA PENINSULA DE LA
FLORIDA...
...ESTA ES LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA...


RESUMEN DE LAS 500 PM CDT...2100 UTC... INFORMACION
-----------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...30.4 N 84.1 O
CERCA DE 70 MI...115 KM NE DE APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
CERCA DE 10 MI...20 KM E DE TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NE O 55 GRADOS A 23 MPH...37 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...999 MB...29.50 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:

El Aviso de Tormenta Tropical ha sido descontinuado para las
costas golfo, Florida.

RESUMEN DE AVISOS Y VIGILANCIAS EN EFECTO:

No existen avisos ni vigilancias tropicales.

DISCUSION Y PRONOSTICO
----------------------

A las 500 PM CDT (2100 UTC), imagenes satelitales, data del Radar
Doppler de la NOAA y observaciones de superficies indicaron que el
centro del ciclon post-tropical Nestor estaba localizado cerca de la
latitud 30.4 norte, longitud 84.6 oeste. El ciclon post-tropical se
esta moviendo hacia el noreste cerca de 23 mph (37 km/h), y este
movimiento se espera que continue esta domingo en la noche. En el
pronostico de trayectoria, el ciclon post-tropical Nestor se movera
sobre tierra sobre el Panhandle de la Florida esta tarde y el
domingo. se espera que el cilon se mueva fuera de la costa a
Carolina del Norte al oeste de aguas del Atlantico tarde el domingo.

Los vientos maximos sostenidosestan han disminuido a cerca de 40 mph
(65 km) con rafagas mas altas. Se anticipa un poco de cambio en la
intensidad posible el domingo en la noche y el lunes cuando el
ciclon post-tropical se mueva sobre el oeste del Atlantico.

La presion minima central estimada por observaciones en la
superficie es de 999 mb (29.50 pulgadas).


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------

LLUVIA: Se espera que el ciclon post-tropical Nestor produzca lluvia
adiconal de hasta 1 a 3 pulgadas este fin de semana a traves de
sectores del sureste de los Estados Unidos.

VIENTOS: Vientos de fuerza galerna se desarrollaran a traves de
sectores de las costas del Atlantico y sureste de los Estados unidos
mas tarde hoy y esta noche.

TORNADOS: Algunos tornados son posibles durante mitad del dia en la
Peninsula norte y central de Florida y tarde hoy y esta noche sobre
areas costeras de Georgia y las Carolinas.


MAREJADA CICLONICA: Los niveles de marejada ciclonica continuaran
disminuyendo durante esta noche a lo largo de la costa del Golfo de
la Florida.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
------------------- Esta es la ultima advertencia emitida por el
Centro nacional de Huracanes sobre Nestor. Informacion adicional
sobre este sistema puede ser encontrada en High Seas Forecasts
emitido por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia... bajo AWIPS
encabezado NFDHSFAT1 y WMO encabezado FZNT01 KWBC.
$$

Pronosticador Stewart
Traduccion Ingles

000
WTNT65 KNHC 231231
TCUAT5

Tropical Storm Sebastien Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019
830 AM AST Sat Nov 23 2019

...CENTER OF SEBASTIEN FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED...

Recent microwave and visible satellite imagery indicate that the
center of Sebastien is moving faster than forecast and is now
located northeast of previous estimates. This will be reflected in
the next advisory issued by 11 AM AST (1500 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 830 AM AST...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 48.5W
ABOUT 1365 MI...2195 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Acoustic Data has developed a remote downhole monitoring deployment model that overcomes travel restrictions tied to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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The FPSO sector has not been immune to the oil industry slowdown, but it might be best-positioned to bounce back when the upstream recovers.

The supertankers will hold more than half of its North Dakota crude production.

000
WTNT25 KNHC 250231
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019
0300 UTC MON NOV 25 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEBASTIEN.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 28.9W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 35 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 170SE 190SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 240SE 420SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 28.9W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 30.8W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.6N 22.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 170SE 190SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 48.1N 14.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 190SE 190SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.0N 28.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON SEBASTIEN. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER
FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

 
 000
 FONT11 KNHC 192041
 PWSAT1
                                                                     
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10    
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019               
 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019                                            
                                                                     
 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR
 LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
 WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                     
 WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
     OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
 PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
 THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
 PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 WALLOPS CDA    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 NORFOLK NAS    34  X   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
  
 NORFOLK VA     34  X   9( 9)   5(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
  
 OCEANA NAS VA  34  X  11(11)   7(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
  
 ELIZABETH CTY  34  X  26(26)   5(31)   X(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
  
 RALEIGH NC     34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 ROCKY MT NC    34  X  15(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
  
 CAPE HATTERAS  34  X  44(44)  15(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
  
 FAYETTEVILLE   34  X  31(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
  
 CHERRY PT NC   34  X  61(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 CHERRY PT NC   50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 NEW RIVER NC   34  X  56(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 NEW RIVER NC   50  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
  
 MOREHEAD CITY  34  X  60(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
  
 SURF CITY NC   34  X  66(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 SURF CITY NC   50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 WILMINGTON NC  34  X  68(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
 WILMINGTON NC  50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 BALD HEAD ISL  34  X  64(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 FLORENCE SC    34 23  29(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
  
 COLUMBIA SC    34 27   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
  
 LITTLE RIVER   34  5  67(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
 LITTLE RIVER   50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 MYRTLE BEACH   34 15  59(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
 MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 GEORGETOWN SC  34 32  41(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
 GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 CHARLESTON SC  34 66  11(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
 CHARLESTON SC  50  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 BEAUFORT MCAS  34 83   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
 BEAUFORT MCAS  50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 AUGUSTA GA     34 27   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
  
 SAVANNAH GA    34 89   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
 SAVANNAH GA    50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 KINGS BAY GA   34  8   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
  
 WAYCROSS GA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
  
 TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
  
 ST MARKS FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
  
 BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
 

000
WTNT41 KNHC 192041
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor made landfall along on
St. Vincent Island, Florida, around 1730 UTC. Since then, that
center has moved inland over the Florida Panhandle between
Apalachicola and Tallahassee. However, during the past hour, a new
center appears to have formed farther west along a quasi-occluded
frontal boundary. The earlier 40-45 kt winds over water have moved
inland and weakened, and the initial intensity of 35 kt is based on
a recent wind report of a sustained wind of 33 kt at 5-meters
elevation from NOAA buoy 41008/Gray's Reef, Georgia.

The initial motion estimate is now northeastward or 055/20 kt.
Nestor is forecast to move northeastward over the next 36 hours or
so, followed by a turn toward the east once the cyclone reaches the
North Carolina Outer Banks. On days 2 an 3, upper-level support is
expected to weaken and lift out to the northeast, leaving a
weakening extratropical cyclone Nestor behind. The cyclone should
then dissipate or merge with another frontal system by 96 h offshore
of the U.S. east coast. The new official forecast track is similar
to the previous advisory, and lies close to the center of the
tightly packed model guidance envelope.

Some slight strengthening is expected on Sunday, mainly due to the
robust circulation moving out over the warm waters of the far
western Atlantic where less friction will affect the cyclone. The
official intensity foreast closely follows an average of the 1200
UTC GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF global model intensity forecasts.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Nestor. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

Key Messages:

1. Gale-force winds will gradually develop over the Atlantic waters
and along the coasts northeastern Florida and Georgia tonight, and
spread northward to the Carolinas on Sunday.

2. Isolated flash flooding is possible across the southeastern
United States into Sunday.

3. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 30.4N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 20/0600Z 32.3N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/1800Z 35.0N 76.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/0600Z 36.8N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1800Z 36.8N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1800Z 36.5N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 
 000
 FKNT21 KNHC 192041
 TCANT1
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019
 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019
 
 TC ADVISORY
 DTG:                      20191019/2100Z
 TCAC:                     KNHC
 TC:                       NESTOR
 NR:                       010
 PSN:                      N3024 W08406
 MOV:                      NE 20KT
 C:                        0999HPA
 MAX WIND:                 035KT
 FCST PSN +6 HR:           20/0300Z N3139 W08218
 FCST MAX WIND +6 HR:      040KT
 FCST PSN +12 HR:          20/0900Z N3258 W08013
 FCST MAX WIND +12 HR:     040KT
 FCST PSN +18 HR:          20/1500Z N3419 W07752
 FCST MAX WIND +18 HR:     040KT
 FCST PSN +24 HR:          20/2100Z N3527 W07531
 FCST MAX WIND +24 HR:     040KT
 RMK:                      THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
                           THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
                           OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
                           0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
 NXT MSG:                  NO MSG EXP
 
 ..
 
 

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