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Samuel Chapman Armstrong was the founder of Hampton Normal and Agricultural Institute (later Hampton University). Armstrong's father served as the kingdom of Hawaii's minister of education and emphasized student labor as a key part of schooling. The younger Armstrong enlisted in the Union army during the American Civil War (1861–1865) and commanded regiments in the United States Colored Troops. After the war he worked with the Freedmen's Bureau and began planning a school to train black teachers. Hampton Normal and Agricultural Institute opened in 1868 and emphasized labor alongside academics. The institution produced African American educators across the South, most notably Booker T. Washington. In 1878 Hampton's mission expanded with the admission of Native American students. The growth intensified Armstrong dependence on benefactors and in turn left it further exposed to the rising racism among American whites. In his later years academics at Hampton were publicly de-emphasized in favor of its trade-school programs. Armstrong died of a stroke in 1893.
Fri, 30 Oct 2020 14:14:55 EST

The Emerging Leaders' Guide to Thriving at Industry Events jhammond@desti… Tue, 11/05/2024 - 21:09

Justin had the news from the People's Bank of China here:

• PBOC governor will maintain yuan exchange rate at a reasonable, balanced level

PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized the Bank will not let the yuan plummet without a fight:

• Will step up countercyclical adjustment
• Should resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot

With the surging USD after Trump's win the yuan is just one of many weaker currencies:

People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%.

How the process works:

• Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day's trading.
• The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.
• Intervention: If the yuan's value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency's value.

Earlier:

• ICYMI - PBOC Governor warned on yuan slide, will 'guard against risk of overshoot'

The People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.

• USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.
• CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.
• A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected is typically considered a signal from the PBOC.

Previous close was 7.2150

The rate today at 7.1927 is weakest since September 12 of 2023.

PBOC injects 125bn yuan via 7-day RR, sets rate at 1.5%

• 18bn yuan mature today
• net injection is 107bn yuan

*-*-

/*/*

• The pace of the moves depends on the data
• We are data dependent but not data point dependent
• Growth outlook has deteriorated due to manufacturing sector
• If disinflation stays on track, it would make a case for further rate cuts
• We could be leaving restrictive territory in the spring of 2025
• The last thing we need now is yet another trade war
• Tariffs impact will be medium-to-long term
• Protectionism by definition is inflationary

The remarks are as you would expect from the ECB at this current stage. But they are already starting to recognise the potential impact of Trump tariffs and that's a warning signal to the outlook for next year I guess.

• Euro area growth is projected to be sluggish
• Sees downside risks to growth
• Waiting on December projections for a better picture of where we stand

So far, he's not saying anything to jolt market pricing. And that's the other main consideration for any of their communications before making policy decisions. As such, a 25 bps rate cut in December remains the likeliest option at this stage. EUR/USD remains down 0.2% on the day at 1.0626 currently.

• It is just a question of how far and how fast
• Rate cut last week does not mean that the job is done
• Labour market data today show pay growth still at high levels
• There is still some work to be done on underlying domestic inflation pressures

All that being said, Pill argues that there has been "substantial" disinflation in the UK already. To summarise, it just means that they are not necessarily going to cut rates at every coming meeting. However, they are making it clear that they do have the option to do so if need be.

Fed's Waller is speaking but makes no comment on monetary or economic policy in his prepared remarks.

He does say:

• private sector best suited to innovate on payment systems
• Fed ready to support private innovation, mindful of financial stability.
• Government should have clear objective when providing financial services.
• There are times when government can address market inefficiencies
• Still does not see case for Fed digital dollar

Perhaps he will comment on monetary policy/the economy in a Q&A later.

Looking ahead at

• 10:15 AM ET, Richmond and President Barkin is speaking (he speaks at 5:30 PM ET as well).
• 2 PM, Minneapolis Fed Pres. Kashkari speaking and at
• 5 PM Philadelphia Fed Pres. Harker is scheduled to speak

Richmond Fed Pres. parking is speaking and says:

• Fed is in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy involves.
• US economy looks pretty good
• Labor market is resilient.
• From here, labor market mighty be fine or may continue to weaken.
• Inflation might be coming under control or might risk getting stuck above Fed 2% target.
• Feds focus may turn to upside inflation risks or to downside employment risks, depending on how economy develops.

The market is pricing a 65% chance of a 25 basis point cut in December. That is down over the last week or so (it was in the high 70%s last week).

US yields are higher but off their highest levels:

• 2-year 4.314%, +6.1 basis points
• 5-year 4.269%, +7.6 basis points
• 10-year 4.370%, +6.3 basis points
• 30 year 4.516%, +3.7 basis points

• One year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 3.0% last month. That is the lowest in four years
• Three-year inflation expectations 2.5% versus 2.7% last month
• Five-year inflation expectations 2.8% versus 2.9% last month

other details :

• Consumers in October saw lower likelihood of missing a minimum debt payment for the first time in five months
• Consumers in October saw lowest likelihood of a rising US unemployment rate over the next year since February 2022
• Consumers saw lower chance of losing current job and improved prospects for finding a new job if current job were lost
• Unemployment expectations decline to 34.5%, lowest since February 2022
• Probability of finding a job increase the highest level since October 2023

This is good news is inflation expectations help to keep a lid on actual inflation. Nevertheless yields remain near highs for the day.

• 2 year 4.321%, +6.7 basis points
• 5-year 4.281%, +8.9 basis points
• 10 year 4.390%, 8.2 basis points

US stocks are lower:

• Dow -0.38%
• S&P -0.33%
• NASDAQ -0.14%

Comments from the Minneapolis Fed President in conversation with Yahoo Finance.

• Contacts are optimistic
• We have to wait and see what the new government policies are, we will have to wait and see
• A one-time tariff increase in transitory but it can become tit-for-tat, right now we're all just guessing
• Immigration could have a big effect but we will have to see what will happen
• New lease inflation takes a couple years to work its way through
• We have good confidence that the housing piece of inflation will get to normal levels, though it may take a year or two
• The labor market has been surprisingly resilient, it's a good labor market
• The economy looks like it's in a strong position
• If we saw inflation surprise to the upside between now and December, that might give us pause
• Probably not enough time for jobs to surprise on the upside
• Productivity looks like it's been stronger, which could mean a higher neutral rate
• If so, we may not cut as much
• We all agree that we're above neutral now
• The rise in long-term yields doesn't look like it's about long-term inflation expectations
• I think we're modestly restrictive right now. I thought we were putting two feet on the brakes but in hindsight we were only putting one foot on the brake
• My judgement is that we still have a long ways to go in shrinking the balance sheet
• Ultimately the economy will guide us in terms of how far we need to cut rates

Kashkari is candid and is oftentimes dovish but he sounded less like someone who wants to keep on cutting. His comment about one foot on the brakes was helpful in illustrating how he sees the economy and rates. The interesting discussion is about neutral right now and how close the Fed wants to go. He also touched on a longer timeline to get inflation all the way back to 2% and that should keep the Fed in the high 3s assuming no sharp slowdown in the economy. Of course, the Fed curve is also pricing 3.80% as the terminal rate.

The New York Federal Reserve branch's Roberto Perli is manager of the Fed’s System Open Market Account (SOMA).

• Recent quarter-end money market volatility not historically large.
• Still strong evidence reserve levels remain abundant.
• No imminent signs of issues for Fed to implement monetary policy.
• Recent quarter-end pressure was contained.
• Slow rise in repo rates has been orderly.
• Standing repo facility stands ready to provide liquidity.
• Notes there’s been more friction in money markets lately.

---

The Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) is the central portfolio used by the Federal Reserve to conduct monetary policy. It holds the securities that the Fed buys and sells through open market operations, primarily U.S. Treasury securities, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities. SOMA is a key tool for influencing short-term interest rates and managing the money supply. By adjusting the size and composition of this portfolio, the Fed can influence liquidity, credit conditions, and the overall stance of monetary policy in the economy.

In addition to domestic assets, SOMA also holds foreign currency assets, allowing the Fed to participate in foreign exchange markets when necessary. The New York Federal Reserve Bank manages SOMA on behalf of the entire Federal Reserve System.

Deutsche Bank has revised its forecast for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) terminal rate, lowering its central-case projection from 2.25% to 1.50%. The bank now anticipates the ECB’s policy rate will dip slightly below the neutral rate by the end of 2025, rather than returning to neutral by mid-year as previously expected.

This shift in outlook is driven by several factors, including the potential for new tariffs from a Trump administration, which would likely impact trade, along with weaker macroeconomic performance in Europe and the increasing risk of inflation falling below target.

According to Deutsche Bank, the uncertainty surrounding these dynamics is considerable, especially given the unclear timing and effects of U.S. tariffs and potential European responses. Reflecting this uncertainty, the bank has outlined a broad target range of 1.00% to 1.75% for the ECB’s terminal rate.

Deutsche Bank notes that the terminal rate’s trajectory and ultimate level will depend on key influences such as:

1. European fiscal policy,
2. the economic health of Germany,
3. developments in China,
4. and fluctuations in oil prices.

The bank further suggests that the global economy may be entering a new phase, with Europe potentially experiencing increasingly divergent economic conditions compared to the U.S.

The People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.

• USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.
• CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.
• A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected is typically considered a signal from the PBOC.

Previous reference rate was 7.2355.

The setting at 7.1991, about 300-odd points lower than the modelled estimate is indicative of the PBoC pushing back against yuan weakness. AUD/USD has popped a little on the setting of a stronger than expected yuan.

PBOC injects 233bn yuan via 7-day RR, sets rate at 1.5%

• 17bn yuan mature today
• net injection is 216bn yuan

/*/*

Justin had the news from the People's Bank of China here on Monday:

• PBOC governor will maintain yuan exchange rate at a reasonable, balanced level

The PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized that the Bank will not let the yuan plummet without a fight:

• Will step up countercyclical adjustment
• Should resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot

Today is an example of the Bank pushing back on yuan weakness, with the reference rate set 300+ points stronger for the CNY than was expected (in the Reuters model).

Offshore yuan has jumped (lower USD/CNH as shown in the chart below):

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

It's the same one for EUR/USD as seen yesterday, at the 1.0800 level. The expiries today are relatively large and could provide a draw/magnet for price action in the session ahead. That could very well keep the price range more limited, alongside key near-term levels.

The 200-hour moving average, seen at 1.0820 currently, is still providing a ceiling for any upside extensions. And price action is trading narrowly in between that and the 100-hour moving average, seen at 1.0803 currently. So, the expiries at 1.0800 adds to some pull in and around those levels.

That until they roll off later in the day or we get a key catalyst of sorts, which isn't likely given the lack of items on the economic calendar until US trading.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

The election is going to dominate early November trading so making moves based on seasonals is unwise. That said, it's useful to keep them in mind as the dust settles.

• November is the best month for USD/JPY
• Best month for the Nasdaq
• Third-best month for the US dollar
• The November through February is strong for gold
• Second-best month for the S&P 500
• Second-best month for the MSCI world index
• Second-best month for the German DAX
• Best month for the Nikkei 225
• The final month of the seasonal slump for oil. Seasonals neutral in Dec-Jan then strongly positve from Feb-June

Going into last November, the S&P 500 had declined for three straight months but that month marked a turning point as it recouped nearly all the gains in what was the beginning of a five-month rally. This time, we're coming into the month with better momentum, though October was negative for stocks.

The USDCAD has backed backs off from ceiling area again. That area comes between 1.3945 and 1.3958.

The subsequent move to the downside has the pair heading toward 200 and 100-hour MA support targets at 1.39054 and 1.3898 respectively (green and blue lines on the chart below). A move below that level would target the rising 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.38784. Last week the price fell below that moving average line on two separate occasions only to fail and bounce back to the upside.

If the price were to get above the ceiling area, the 2022 high price comes in at 1.3977. Get above that and the price is trading at the highest level since 2020.

USDCAD Summary

The USDCAD is trending upward, approaching a key swing area between 1.3945-1.39581.

Key Levels:

Resistance

• 1.3945 to 1.3958. Swing highs over the last 7 trading days (from swing highs from Oct 31, Nov 1, 6, and 7.

• 1.3977 (2022 high)

Support

• 1.3905 - 200-hour MA)

• 1.3898 Rising 100-hour MA

Outlook:

• Break above 1.3977 targets highest level since 2020.

• Move below 1.3905 and rising 100-hour MA favors sellers.

• Otherwise, buyers maintain control, pushing for new highs.

The USDJPY is extending to a new session high after testing is 61.8% retracement earlier in the day at 153.397 and finding willing buyers.

The market to the upside has now taken the price to a high of 154.75. That has extended above the high price from last week at 154.704. The buyers are making a play.

The swing high going back to July 30 came in at 155.21, and that becomes the next key target on the topside for the pair.

BofA suggests staying short on CHF, particularly against USD and GBP, as post-election volatility subsides and G10 rate repricing supports a weaker CHF. While political risks may pose a minor obstacle, BofA sees CHF depreciation as likely due to policy divergence, with recent fiscal stimulus in the UK reinforcing the case for long GBP/CHF.

Key Points:

• CHF Weakness Expected: Following the US election, BofA expects normalization in volatility and G10 rate adjustments, which support a weaker CHF heading into year-end.

• Policy Divergence and SNB Cuts: CHF depreciation has been driven by Swiss policy moves, including an SNB rate cut, and ongoing yield compression. Increased Swiss inflation has also pressured CHF.

• Positioning in USD/CHF and GBP/CHF: BofA favors short CHF positions in USD/CHF and recently opened a long GBP/CHF position via a three-month ratio call spread, driven by UK fiscal stimulus enhancing policy divergence.

• Risk Management Considerations: While CHF shorts are promising, BofA advises a cautious approach due to potential political uncertainties that could affect CHF.

Conclusion:

BofA recommends holding short CHF positions in USD/CHF and GBP/CHF, as volatility recedes and policy divergence favors a weaker CHF. Though political noise may cause short-term volatility, BofA sees CHF depreciation persisting into year-end, with UK fiscal moves strengthening the case for GBP/CHF.

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The Chinese market and related global-growth proxies got excited about potential fiscal stimulus in October. After a flurry of buying, there has been some consolidation as we waited for the details.

Those details came on Friday and just before that, the market tried to break higher in a front-run of potentially larger stimulus. Beijing didn't deliver and the market was slow to digest that at first.

Today though, it looks like disappointment is setting in as the MCHI ETF falls into the October gap. The threat of tariffs combined with lackluster domestic growth make for a bad combination. Given how late the market was to pile into this theme, there are going to be many people underwater very quickly.

• US indices close lower on the day. No new records today.
• Bitcoin trades above $90,000 for the first time. It broke the $80,000 level on Monday
• US CPI to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for 0.2% MoM
• It's not a pretty picture in China
• Fed's Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I'm optimistic that will continue
• BofA: Life don't come easy for CHF: What's the trade?
• US 10 year yield looks to close at the highest level since July 1
• Major European indices are closing sharply lower
• John Paulson drops out of the running for Treasury Secretary
• New York Fed: 1-year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 3.0% last month
• Fed's Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolves
• Fed's Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook
• And they are off. US stocks are marginally higher in the early trading
• LiteFinance Becomes the Official Trading Partner of Leicester City Football Club
• Kickstart the FX day. A look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective
• Canada Sept building permits +11.5% vs +1.7% expected
• Forexlive European FX news wrap: Not much action as we await the US CPI release tomorrow

Markets:

• Bitcoin trades to $90,000 for the first time, two days after passing $80,000. The high reached $90,243
• WTI crude trades down $0.07 at $67.97
• 2 year yield 4.338%, up 8.4 basis points. 10 year yield 4.421%, +11.4 basis points.
• Gold down -$20.78 or -0.79% at $2598.58. Lowest level since September 20
• S&P 500 -17.36 points or -0.29% at 5983.99.
• Nasdaq index down -17.36 points or -0.09% at 19,281.40. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P closed by the exact same point amount....
• Russell 2000 tumbled -43.13 points or -1.77% at 2391.84

In the US the NY Fed Survey showed inflation expectations moving lower with the one year inflation at 2.9% vs 3.0% estimate. That is the lowest in 4 years. The 3 and five years measures also declined with the 3 year down to 2.5% from 2.7%, and the 5 year down to 2.8% from 2.9%.

In Canada building permits soared by 11.5% after -6.3% decline last month. Overall permits were the second-highest level since the start of the new series in January 2017 but it's more of a one-off around government spending than anything related to the economy. Ontario's institutional component received big contributions from construction for long-term care facilities across the province and a hospital permit in Prince Edward County. Residential building is holding up on the multi-family side as the pipeline of condos continues to work its way through but single-family has flatlined.

The US bond market was open after Monday's Veteran's Day holiday and selling was the order of the day as traders price in the inflationary and growth implications of a GOP sweep (and perhaps increased deficits too). The 10-year yield rose close to 12 basis points. The 2 year is up close to 9 basis points.

The USD moved higher with the greenback moving the most vs the GBP (0.95%).. The GBPUSD moved to the lowest level since August 8 and traded below the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the April low. That level comes in at 1.27322. The current price is trading just above that level into the close for the day.

The EURUSD is rallying modestly into the close but still saw the dollar higher by 0.26% versus the EUR. The pair moved below the 1.0601 level which took to price to a new low for 2024. The low could only get to 1.0594 before bouncing higher into the close. The sellers in the EURUSD had their shot. They missed.

The USDJPY is closing higher by 0.61% and into a swing area between 154.54 and 155.21. The high price reached 154.92 extending above the high price from last week at 154.70. The price is trading at 154.62 into the close. Buyers are in control. Can they extend to the high target at 155.21.

The USDCAD traded to the highest level going back to October 2022 when the price extended to 1.3977. The high price today reached 1.3966 just 11 pips short of that high. The price is trading at 1.3949 going into the end of the trading day.

Gold continues its move to the downside after reaching record levels at the end of October at $2790.07. The price has since fallen -6.89% to $2597.88.

Bitcoin's sprint to the topside continued today with the price reaching above $90,000 for the first time ever and just 2-days after breaking above the $80,000 level. The high price reached $90,243. The price has come off that lofty level and trades at $88,092.

Barclays has issued a note suggesting that the re-election of Trump is unlikely to significantly impact oil market fundamentals in the near term.

The bank believes that current market dynamics are relatively stable and does not foresee major shifts tied to potential changes in U.S. leadership.

Barclays is recommending a long position on December 2025 Brent call spreads. The bank notes that volatility has recently decreased, and it perceives market sentiment as overly focused on downside risks, or the "left tail." In contrast, Barclays believes the risks are more balanced, especially in light of recent improvements in oil market fundamentals and the possibility of a more confrontational geopolitical landscape.

Australia data - Wage Price Index for Q3 2024:

+0.8% q/q for the third consecutive quarter

• expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%
• Both the private sector and the public sector rose 0.8%, seasonally adjusted, for the quarter.

+3.5% y/y, lowest annual rise for the series since December quarter 2022 and followed four consecutive quarters of annual wage growth equal to or above 4%.

• expected +3.6%, prior +4.1%

---

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes the Wage Price Index (WPI) quarterly, measuring changes in the price of labor, unaffected by shifts in workforce composition, hours worked, or employee characteristics.

The ABS provides detailed WPI data, including breakdowns by industry and sector, offering insights into wage trends across Australia's economy.

Japan's Seven & i Holdings is considering a management buyout to take itself private with funding from banks, Itochu Corp. and the founding Ito family in a transaction that could be worth US$58 billion

"People with knowledge of the matter" cited in the reports via Nikkei and Bloomberg.

The Japanese owner of 7-Eleven is considering going private by buying back its own shares in a bid to avoid a takeover attempt by Canadian rival Alimentation Couche-Tard, the news report says.

Later today, Wednesday, 13 November, we get the US consumer inflation data for October 2024

• due at 1330 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time

Previews posted already:

• US CPI to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for 0.2% MoM

• US CPI data due Wednesday - possible upside surprise.
• US inflation data this week expected to show core CPI moving sideways - risk ahead higher

OK, what to expect. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.

Taking a look at the range of expectations compared to the median consensus (the 'expected' in the screenshot above) for the key data points:

CPI Headline y/y, expected 2.6% with the range showing:

• 2.3% - 2.7%

CPI Headline m/m expected 0.2% with the range showing:

• 0.1 to 0.3%

CPI excluding food and energy (the core rate of inflation) y/y expected 3.3% with the range showing:

• 3.2 - 3.4%

CPI excluding food and energy (the core rate of inflation) m/m expected 0.3% with the range showing:

• 0.2 to 0.4%

***

Why is knowledge of such ranges important?

Data results that fall outside of market low and high expectations tend to move markets more significantly for several reasons:

• Surprise Factor: Markets often price in expectations based on forecasts and previous trends. When data significantly deviates from these expectations, it creates a surprise effect. This can lead to rapid revaluation of assets as investors and traders reassess their positions based on the new information.

• Psychological Impact: Investors and traders are influenced by psychological factors. Extreme data points can evoke strong emotional reactions, leading to overreactions in the market. This can amplify market movements, especially in the short term.

• Risk Reassessment: Unexpected data can lead to a reassessment of risk. If data significantly underperforms or outperforms expectations, it can change the perceived risk of certain investments. For instance, better-than-expected economic data may reduce the perceived risk of investing in equities, leading to a market rally.

• Triggering of Automated Trading: In today’s markets, a significant portion of trading is done by algorithms. These automated systems often have pre-set conditions or thresholds that, when triggered by unexpected data, can lead to large-scale buying or selling.

• Impact on Monetary and Fiscal Policies: Data that is significantly off from expectations can influence the policies of central banks and governments. For example, in the case of the inflation data due today, weaker than expected will fuel speculation of nearer and larger Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts. A stronger (i.e. higher) CPI report will diminish such expectations. the December meeting is in focus right now.

• Liquidity and Market Depth: In some cases, extreme data points can affect market liquidity. If the data is unexpected enough, it might lead to a temporary imbalance in buyers and sellers, causing larger market moves until a new equilibrium is found.

• Chain Reactions and Correlations: Financial markets are interconnected. A significant move in one market or asset class due to unexpected data can lead to correlated moves in other markets, amplifying the overall market impact.

European trading will be a bit of a snoozer as such with a lack of headlines. But perhaps we might get some interesting market moves to talk about in the run up to the US CPI report. USD/JPY is now inching just above 155.00 for the first time since end July while EUR/USD is looking heavy near the April low of 1.0601. Those will be two of the more interesting charts in play currently.

Elsewhere, US futures are pointing lower with gold back up slightly just above $2,600 and Bitcoin is down to below $87,000 after briefly brushing up against the $90,000 mark overnight. So, there are some mixed moves in there for the time being.

In terms of data releases, there's just the US MBA mortgage applications at 1200 GMT. With rates having shot higher post-election, that is likely to keep sentiment in a more dour spot after last week's report here.

As for euro area releases, there's nothing on the agenda for today.

• Expects inflation to moderate in France
• Expects French unemployment rate to go up to around 8% before falling back

He is speaking somewhat in his capacity as Bank of France governor here. And the remarks aren't anything that stand out. As things stand, traders have fully priced in a rate cut for December. The odds of a 25 bps move are at ~68% with the remainder tied to a 50 bps rate cut.

• There are still noticeable price pressures, especially in services sector
• Trump's tariffs may cause German economy to contract
• If tariffs come into effect, it could cost Germany 1% in economic output

And therein lies the dilemma for the ECB heading into next year I guess. The good news is that the disinflation process is still progressing, albeit with a few bumps along the way. All else being equal, the argument for further rate cuts should hold heading into 2025.

• Headline CPI reading not telling us that underlying inflation dynamics have been vanquished
• Services inflation is pretty sticky
• Energy prices are more likely to go up than down
• Sees more volatility and upward bias to some inflation drivers

Do keep in mind that Mann is arguably the most hawkish member among the BOE policy committee. So, her comments here are not as striking as they might seem to be.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Given broadcasters' integral role in educating the public on COVID-19 and vaccine deployment, the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) has joined the COVID Collaborative, a national assembly of experts and organizations working on unified action against the COVID-19 pandemic. NAB President and CEO Gordon Smith will serve on the Collaborative’s National Advisory Council.

Washington, D.C. – The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB), the Donald W. Reynolds Journalism Institute (RJI) and the National Association of Chain Drug Stores (NACDS) today announced the launch of an online toolkit to help local journalists craft COVID-19 vaccine education messages that best resonate with their audiences. The toolkit is designed to provide journalists with information and resources to create news reports, public service announcements and other messages related to vaccine safety, effectiveness and distribution.

Washington, D.C. -- Iconic game show “The Price Is Right”, which airs on CBS and is produced by Fremantle, is the 2022 television inductee into the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) Broadcasting Hall of Fame. Host Drew Carey and executive producer and showrunner Evelyn Warfel will accept the award at The Achievement in Broadcasting Awards on the NAB Show Main Stage on April 24 at 4:30 p.m. in Las Vegas, Nev.

Washington, D.C. -- NAB Show attendees will navigate a convention floor featuring some of the world’s leading brands and companies, as well as first-time exhibitors and innovation zones showcasing the most cutting-edge advancements changing the broadcast, media and entertainment industries. The 2022 NAB Show will run April 23–27 at the Las Vegas Convention Center (LVCC).

NEW YORK -- Total preliminary registered attendance reached 9,576 for the 2022 NAB Show New York, held October 19-20 at the Javits Center. The show floor featured 245 exhibitors showcasing the latest technology in media and entertainment. The 2023 NAB Show New York will be held October 25-26, 2023.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Today at the NAB State Leadership Conference, President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt expressed concern with the implications of the FCC’s decision to refer the Standard General-Tegna merger to the agency’s administrative law judge. The following statement can be attributed to him:

Washington, D.C. -- Long-running sports anthology series "ABC's Wide World of Sports" will be inducted into the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) Broadcasting Hall of Fame at the 2023 NAB Show as this year's television inductee. The show, which aired on ABC from 1961-1998, will be honored at NAB Show during the NAB Broadcasting Hall of Fame Ceremony on the Main Stage, held April 17 in Las Vegas, Nev.

Washington, D.C. -- The 2023 NAB Show will host an intimate conversation with the creative team behind the Academy Award-winning animated short film, "The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse," on Sunday, April 16 at 2:00 p.m. on the Main Stage, open to all attendees. "How to Win an Oscar With a Fully Remote Creative Team" will feature visual artists for the production, which first aired in December 2022, on the BBC, to more than seven million live viewers.

NAB Show will host a session presented by American Cinema Editors that highlights the incredible creative forces behind HBO's "The Last of Us." In "American Cinema Editors Present HBO's The Last of Us," from 11 a.m.-12 p.m. on Sunday, April 16, the series' executive producer Craig Mazin and members of the creative team will discuss the meticulous art of editing, cinematography, visual effects (VFX) and sound behind the hit series.

Washington, D.C. -- NAB Show today announced that two-time Emmy-award winning writer, actress and comedian Ashley Nicole Black will moderate a fireside chat with actor, writer, producer and all-around multihyphenate Brett Goldstein. In "A Conversation with Brett Goldstein," on the NAB Show Main Stage Monday, April 17, at 4 p.m., Goldstein will discuss his multifaceted creative career, how he balances his various roles, and his process for creating compelling content.

In response to Sen. Cantwell's remarks at today's hearing and letter urging the FCC to refresh the record on vMVPDs, the following statement can be attributed to NAB President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt:

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Hall of Fame CBS sportscaster James Brown is the recipient of the National Association of Broadcasters’ 2023 Distinguished Service Award (NAB DSA), the organization’s highest honor. The award presentation will take place during the NAB Marconi Awards Dinner, presented by Xperi, on October 25 at NAB Show New York.