Source: Clive Maund for Streetwise Reports   05/04/2020

Notwithstanding the Fed's seemingly limitless ability to create money to throw at the stock market, which has caused it to rally in recent weeks in the face of a dead economy and apocalyptic jobs data and earnings, etc., all the charts we are going to look at here point to another severe downleg soon.

My attention was drawn to a bearish Rising Wedge completing in the London FTSE index by a colleague in England. So I took a look at it, and sure enough it is. So, I thought I'd take a look at a couple of other European indices, the CAC 40 in France and the German DAX Composite, which showed a very similar picture. Their charts are shown below and as you will see, they are both very bearish, and point to a break lower soon leading to a severe decline.

You will recall that we were thrown somewhat a week or two ago, when the main U.S. indices, the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P500 index, broke down from their bearish Rising Wedges but then didn't follow through, and instead rose to new highs for the rally from the March lows, which caused us to dump our Puts and then bide our time to see what transpired. The sharp drop at the end of the month—this past Friday—jolted me into action and prompted me to hunt around in a quest for greater clarity regarding what is going on, and it has turned out to be a rewarding search.

While it's not exactly clear what is going on with the main U.S. indices, the picture becomes much clearer when we look at the broader but much less used Wilshire 5000 index. Take a look at this first of all—it's a 5-month chart for the Wilshire 5000 that reveals that it didn't break down from its Rising Wedge about 10 days ago, unlike the Dow Industrials and the S&P500 index, but it did last Friday, which happened to be the end of the month, by a significant margin. This is regarded as an ominous development that probably marks the start of the second major downleg of this bear market. We can also see that the countertrend rally got stopped by the important resistance level shown.

Now take a look at this. The following chart shows that the breakdown from the Wedge happened just two days after the Wilshire 5000 had arrived at an upper range Fibonacci target at a retracement level of 61.8% of the preceding first leg down of the bear market. This is normally as far as a retracement following the first leg down of a bear market gets, and the same happened following the Tech bubble peak in 2000 and the start of the 2007–2008 meltdown.

If we now compare the Wilshire charts above with the S&P500 index chart we realize that the breakdown by the latter about 10 days ago was a false breakdown, inasmuch as, as we have just seen, the Wilshire did not break down at that time.

If we see another heavy drop in the broad stock market shortly, it is of course reasonable to presume that it will coincide with a strong rally in the dollar, so how does that look now? On the following 5-month chart for the dollar index, which has the S&P500 index placed above and gold below for direct comparison, there are several very important points to observe. The first is that when the market tanked into mid-March, the dollar soared just as we would expect it to and as happened in 2008. Then it dropped back sharply later in March as the market rebounded, but it has since been tracking sideways in a trading range marking time as the stock market continued to ascend to complete its relief rally. Right now it is at the support at the bottom of this range where a doji candle formed on Friday suggesting that it is about to start higher again. If the market now proceeds to tank in a second major downwave then we can expect the dollar to soar again, bust out of the top of the current range and probably exceed its mid-March highs.

If the dollar soars then commodities are likely to take another broadside, just as in the first half of March, and just as in 2008, and gold and silver are unlikely to be spared—the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index is now at an extreme reading of 92% bullish. Copper in particular looks like it will get crushed by another downwave that should take it to new bear market lows by a wide margin.

Originally posted on CliveMaund.com at 4.35 pm EDT on 2nd May 2020.

Clive Maund has been president of www.clivemaund.com, a successful resource sector website, since its inception in 2003. He has 30 years' experience in technical analysis and has worked for banks, commodity brokers and stockbrokers in the City of London. He holds a Diploma in Technical Analysis from the UK Society of Technical Analysts.

Disclosure:
1) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of Clive Maund and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. Clive Maund is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not involved in any aspect of the article preparation. Clive Maund was not paid by Streetwise Reports LLC for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article.
2) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
3) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

Charts provided by the author.

CliveMaund.com Disclosure:
The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund's opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund's opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

Source: Knox Henderson for Streetwise Reports   05/05/2020

News Update: A quick update since FansUnite Entertainment Inc. went live on Tuesday, May 5, because big things are happening in the industry, thus showing there is an enormous appetite for this kind of technology especially now, as we (very slowly) emerge out of this COVID pandemic. . .FansUnite is at a small-cap entry point with tremendous upside. After a financing at $0.35, the now-trading company rests slightly above that as a relatively new and unknown entity—so far—which is why now is great opportunity participate in a smaller scale, yet leveraged, consolidation play. "We have a great opportunity to use our stock as currency, and then grow and scale companies through our team and resources," says CEO Darius Eghdami. Read the entire update here.

Lets face it: gamers love games. While currently there's a dearth of real sports activity, that doesn't mean people aren't starving something to speculate on. No sports? No problem. Consider that there is $50 billion dollars placed online every year, according to ESPN. That's a lot of hungry money looking for a place to play.

So, despite the absence of the NFL, NHL, NBA and MLB, new online platforms are offering fun times for taking your chances on everything from reality TV shows, award shows, online gaming and virtual sports along with real in-the-flesh nail-biters like horse racing, table tennis and snooker. Who cares? It's all about the thrill of playing and winning. According to The The Guardian, just last week, "as coronavirus and the subsequent shelter-in-place orders have shut businesses around the globe and forced people to stay inside, some jobs have proven more stable than others," it said referring to online players. "The four U.S. states with legal sites—New Jersey, Nevada, Delaware, and Pennsylvania—reported record revenues in March." Meanwhile despite our current "modified behaviors" and "slowing of the economy," investors are also very keen on speculation in the gaming industry itself.

"FansUnite is at a small-cap entry point with tremendous upside."

Take, for example, DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG), which launched as recently as April 23, in the thick of this stay-at-home pandemic. After completing a merger with Diamond Eagle, a special purpose acquisition company, and back-end technology provider SBTech, its stock soared. Not only did DraftKings' stock jump 14% in its first day of trading before closing up 10.38% at $19.35, but the company was also able to add another half a billion dollars on the balance sheet at a time when it's not easy to raise money. The company is currently nearing a $1 billion market capitalization.

In this game, consolidation is key. Another highly successful big gaming conglomerate over-the-pond is UK-based GVC Gaming Group, which has been consolidating gaming assets over the last 15 years and is now worth $7.5 billion.

This week on the Canadian Securities Exchange (CSE) an emerging player is launching its platform onto the public market. FansUnite Entertainment Inc. (FANS:CSE), a company active in the gaming industry since 2014, is led by industry veterans who are looking to unleash their own high-growth consolidation strategy. The company is focusing on technology related to regulated and lawful internet activity and other related products.

Its business is to consolidate business-to-business (B2B) partnerships worldwide, operate its FansUnite business-to-consumer (B2C) coined Sportsbook launching later this year, and operate its recently acquired (March 26) Scottish subsidiary, McBookie, an online white-label sportsbook licensed and regulated by the U.K. Commission. Even considering the "COVID" delays in traditional sports, the company expects to generate at least $1 million in 2020. Considering FansUnite's experience in the space and its established technologies in an industry that is truly trending, FansUnite has a long runway from its current $25 million market cap to the billions-dollar peers it's chasing, and that is why this looks be a great stock to hold right out of the gate.

When you consider "B2B" in this scenario, consider an entity that wants to create a sportsbook, to become "the house," if you will. That company would turn to FansUnite to set up a turnkey "white-label" (as in use FansUnite technology but with its own brand) online platform, complete with user onboarding, fan integration and access to fulfillment in fiat currency (hard dollars) or cryptocurrency. For this service FansUnite takes a percentage of the "house earnings" and also charges for its Software as a Service (SaaS) platform. In the B2C scenario, FansUnite itself is the "house," using its own sportsbook and technology platform, and executes the marketing efforts to on-board new users.

McBookie, the company's first acquisition, is a white-label sportsbook in the UK, focusing on the Scottish market. It offers 200,000 members active in sports, and virtual games and boasts over $100 million turnover cumulatively the last three years. "It's a great brand with an experienced team operating for over a decade," says FansUnite CEO Darius Eghdami. "We completed this acquisition late March, and our focus currently is going to continue building our presence in the Scottish market."

Moving forward, Eghdami says the team will be putting an emphasis on M&A activity. "We'll continue to look for strong assets with either great technology or a strong database of users where we can come in with our team and resources and really grow and scale the business," he says.

With strong financial backing, Eghdami is also looking at potential opportunities in the colossal U.S. market. "The big heavyweights are coming into the U.S.. We don't intend to be an operator in the U.S., so we're looking at other ways to get in the market and that includes social peer activity, fan engagement, as well as licensed affiliate opportunities."

Eghdami points to another big success story in Canada, Amaya (TSE:TSGI), which is now The Stars Group and has a market capitalization of $11.5 billion. "It's a tremendous story of how they built the company and started to acquire assets. It's a model that we would love to follow."

After a crushing dip into the pandemic, TSGI.T is big-board player that has catapulted to new highs once the reality set in that social isolation might not necessarily be a bad thing for online gaming providers. According to Bloomberg, "The Stars Group Inc. says it saw record revenue in its first quarter as COVID-19 led to an increase in online activity starting in March. And, it says, it has continued to see increased activity in its online playing into the second quarter. In an update to its expectations for the three-month period ended March 31, the company says it expects revenue of approximately US$735 million, up from US$580 million in the first quarter of 2019."

"The stay-at-home lifestyle we now face in 2020 could result in a massive shift in the habits of players," says Eghdami. "Players that are used to going to the physical house, or the horse track, may now shift their habits to online. The older generation now may be signing up on online platforms and realize they can do this a lot easier. We're getting new users on the platform every day, and players starting to turn to virtual sports as well."

FansUnite is the brainchild of three entrepreneurs who have each already carved out more than a decade of in-the-trenches experience in the industry. Two of them including founder Eghdami and his former associate at KMPG, Graeme Moore, are chartered accountants, while co-founder Duncan McIntyre is a practicing lawyer schooled in mergers, acquisitions and corporate development. The teams' first success was the development of the FansUnite B2C social platform, which they eventually sold to a public company in 2016. FansUnite Social uses a free virtual currency for members to simulate the real thing while following and learning from their online heroes. The endgame, of course, is toward transferring the activity to the real-dollar platforms.

FansUnite Technology—B2C Social Platform

After the sale of the social peer platform, Eghdami and company decided to maintain the "FansUnite" brand equity in their new venture, launched in 2017. "We had the idea of getting into real-money sports gaming, spun it out of the pubic company, raised money in 2018 and started down this path. For the last year and a half we've been building our own technology to launch our sportsbook from a B2C perspective as well as prepare it for a full turn-key B2B solution. An option on the B2B platform will be a "smart contract sports book" whereby the funds are held "in-trust" and not accessible to FansUnite or end users until the event is completed and funds are directly sent to the winning party. The FansUnite platform is expected to accept cryptocurrency and regular fiat currency on its sportsbooks.

As part of FansUnite's roll-up strategy of entering into other world markets, acquiring yet maintaining well-established brands is the key to building its global B2B customers and B2C end users. The company is well funded with access to capital. Much of its support comes from industry leaders on the board like Shafin Diamond, CEO of Victory Square since 2015, a venture builder that builds start-ups in web, mobile, gaming, AI and AR/VR. Diamond has launched 40 start-ups in 24 countries, employed more than 350 people, and has generated over $100 million in annual revenues. He has received numerous awards, including the BC Tech Person of the Year Award, BC Angel Investor of the Year in 2014, and Business in Vancouver's Top 40 under 40.

FansUnite recently completed a financing of $3.1 million at $0.35 (free trading upon listing) and used $500,000 cash for the McBookie transaction before launching its IPO on the CSE. Total consideration for the McBookie deal was for approximately CAD$2.2 million, composed of the $500,000 cash up front, and $500,000 cash to be paid within 12 months, the rest in stock, at $0.35 a share, vesting and unrestricting over a course of 36 months.

Currently, management and insiders hold about 20% of the 70 million shares outstanding, and there are 3.5 million options and 1.4 million warrants with a weighted average price of $0.48 and $0.17 respectively, so no scary skeletons in the closet. Eghdami says the company is now sitting on about a $2 million war chest and burning about $175,000 per month. Should investor speculation lift its share price (as predicted here), it should be able to execute is M&A activity with a much stronger currency.

With $1 trillion waged annually, according to UK-based Football Report, the global market for this kind of technology is insane. Apparently, due to "COVID self-containment," it's "trending" even more as digital consumers are quarantined in their homes with nothing better to do but play on their computers.

As we hopefully ease out of this economic situation, FansUnite will have to execute fast and furiously. Now launching on the CSE at C$0.35 with a current market capitalization of $25 million, it has a long way to go, and much to prove, toward reaching the billion-dollar heights of its gaming peers, but the pie is big and the appetite is certainly there.

This is one race worth watching.

Knox Henderson is a journalist and capital markets communications consultant. He has advised for a broad range of small cap companies in the resource, life sciences and technology sectors for more than 25 years.

Disclosure:
1) 1) Knox Henderson: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: None. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: FansUnite Entertainment Inc. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this article: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. As of the date of this article, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has a consulting relationship with FansUnite. Please click here for more information. An affiliate of Streetwise Reports is conducting a digital media marketing campaign for this article on behalf of FansUnite. Please click here for more information. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of FansUnite, a company mentioned in this article.

( Companies Mentioned: FANS:CSE, )

Source: Streetwise Reports   05/07/2020

Streetwise Reports: Let's start with gold, which has seen an impressive rise in the last few months as the broader markets have declined on the back of the coronavirus pandemic. What do you think is ahead for the metal?

Frank Holmes: There is a short-term view and a long-term view. What's really hard for so many investors and asset allocators to recognize is that gold bullion since 2000 has far outperformed the S&P 500. In fact, of the last 20 years, in 16 of those years gold has been positive. So if we look at the numbers, it's double what the S&P 500 has done for the past 20 years.

With gold, there's the fear trade and the love trade. The love trade is 60% of the demand and it is long-term demand. The fear trade is short-term demand, and it's about 40%. Right now, we're living with fear that's really dominating the markets. The two factors that go with that are negative real interest rates and the amount of debt being printed by the government. So whenever you have the combination of a rising Fed balance sheet with Quantitative Easing 1, 2 and 3, buying junk bonds, whatever they're doing in the stock markets to try and provide liquidity, as that flows dramatically so does the price of gold.

Typically and most significant, in every country in the world we have found that when you have negative real interest rates, gold goes up in that country's currency. Take the yield on 10-year government bonds and subtract the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) number; if it's a positive return, gold is not attractive as an asset class. But if it's a negative real rate of return, gold appreciates in that country's currency.

When gold went to $1,900 in September of 2011, the 10-year government bond had a negative real rate of return of -300 basis points. Then five years later, the price of gold went down to $1,100 and real interest rates were +2% over the CPI number. So you had a variant swing from -3 to +2, which is 500 basis, and that's why gold corrected. Since then, we've had these periods now, and particularly in the past year, of negative real interest rates in America. That's how gold started staging a rally, which started about this time last year, peaked in August, sold off and now it's coming back again.

The Federal Reserve said recently it's going to keep rates basically at 0. The CPI is still running more than 1%. In fact, we could get big food inflation, the way it looks, for beef, chicken, etc. Inflation could have a big impact on negative real interest rates, and gold is moving higher.

So short term, it's all about real negative interest rates. As long as they stay negative, then we're going to see gold go up in the U.S. dollar. It could go up against the euro, against any country's currency.

I mentioned earlier that 60% of gold demand is love, and it predominantly comes from China and India. China and India are 40% of the world's population, and if you throw in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, we're now talking about 50% of the world's population. They give gold for weddings and for birthdays, and there's a strong correlation of rising gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in those countries for the past 20 years, and rising gold consumption.

China and India comprise approximately 50% of the world's gold demand GDP per capita. Indian women wear six times the amount of gold on their bodies than what is in Fort Knox, and they predominantly wear 24 karat, minimum 22 karat, gold jewelry. It's protected them from bad governments and bad government policies.

SR: What do you see happening with silver?

FH: Silver has more industrial applications than gold, so silver is like a warrant on gold. If a stock takes off and there's an option or a warrant in the money, it explodes and goes up much more percentage-wise. It has greater volatility. Every 10% move in gold usually translates to a 15% move in silver, up or down. And with this fear that's been taking place with negative interest rates and the calamity of money printing around the world, what we see now is that silver didn't move at first. Silver has always lagged.

SR: Do you recommend that the individual investor hold gold bullion?

FH: Yes. I think the easiest way is the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). Or if you want to buy the physical gold insured, go to a reliable site like Kitco, and you can take physical delivery.

There is a company called Mene Inc. (MENE:TSX.V; MENEF:OTCMKTS) at mene.com. It sells 24-karat gold jewelry with only a 10% markup. And it will buy back your gold jewelry at a 10% discount to the price of gold if you ever want to sell it back. That's the business model. It will deliver throughout the U.S., I think using Brinks for delivery of simple gold jewelry.

SR: Let's talk about bitcoin for a moment and how that fits into a portfolio.

FH: I am the chairman of HIVE Blockchain, which became the first real cryptomining company. We are mining using green energy, surplus energy in Iceland, Sweden and now Quebec, which sells electricity to New York state. Quebec has a surplus of it. So we started mining these coins.

What I found is that the Bitcoin is very different than Ethereum. Bitcoin is going to become, to me, like Andy Warhol's art. If you look at the original paintings of Marilyn Monroe or Elvis Presley, when he came out with his prints in different colors, they came out at $1,000, went up to $10,000, fell, went up to $50,000, fell, went up to $100,000 and went to $125,000—because there are just more people, widened GDP, over time, and then they become art collectors. I think that if you have an original Bitcoin that's never been traded, it's going to be in that space.

The other part is that cryptocurrency is very new, and digital money is going to only grow. Blockchain technology is a superior piece of technology. What we saw was that Bitcoin bottomed a little over a year ago. Then it rallied, it went up to $14,000. All the central banks got worried. They knocked it down, and it's making a comeback.

Bitcoin, in mid-May, is going to halve production. There's a limited number of Bitcoins allowed to be ever created. The methodology when you mine them is you get new Bitcoins. They're called genesis or virgin coins. The number of coins you get every time you mine is going to halve. So the supply is going to shrink dramatically. A thought process with that is that Bitcoin will trade higher, probably above $10,000. Bitcoin is very speculative, just like buying Andy Warhol's art early.

I think that anyone who looks at Bitcoin or Ethereum must recognize that the daily volatility is four times the S&P 500 and gold. Thirty percent of the time gold or the S&P can go up or down 1%. For Bitcoin and Ethereum, it's 4–5%. Cryptocurrency is a huge secular trend, but it's going to be volatile.

SR: How do you feel about gold stocks? Are you looking at seniors or juniors or both? What should investors be looking at?

FH: For the first time in a long time, I'm becoming very bullish on gold stocks. I've been very negative on gold mining companies for over a decade now, for raising capital and actually destroying value per share. But over the decade, new boards of directors and new chief executive officers have come on, and there's become a greater discipline on cash flow returns rather than on cash flow, revenue per share growth, cash flow per share growth, rising dividends, all the normal things you buy a Starbucks or any great company for. It's the capacity to have revenue growth. Mining companies did a lot of silly mergers and acquisitions work, with which they destroyed capital, but that has changed.

During this past decade I've been a big advocate of royalty companies, such as Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE), Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM:TSX; WPM:NYSE), Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD:NASDAQ; RGL:TSX). These three had the highest revenue per employee in the world.

Franco-Nevada has a royalty on Newmont Goldcorp Corp. (NEM:NYSE) and Barrick Gold Corp.'s (ABX:TSX; GOLD:NYSE) joint venture assets in Nevada. The revenue per employee at Franco-Nevada is over $20 million. For Barrick or Newmont, it's $500,000 of revenue per employee. Goldman Sachs has $1 million of revenue per employee. So these royalty firms are very efficient companies. If you look at the past decade, Franco-Nevada has far outperformed Berkshire Hathaway. It has far outperformed any gold stock. It's because it's showing revenue per share growth, cash flow per share growth, over the rolling one year over three years on a consistent basis.

What's now happening is we have new management for these other gold stocks. The big move in gold stocks occurs when the generalists start to buy the sector. They've not been owning the underweight gold stocks because of the bad discipline by management and boards or silly acquisitions. Now what we're seeing, for the past three years, through the end of March, we're going to see the one year revenue growth over two years strong. Now you get 36 months of a strong growth in revenue and cash flow from the industry, and all of a sudden, generalists show up. When you start seeing more and more of the stocks in that industry showing free cash flow, the generalists start to show up.

The coronavirus this past quarter hurt the S&P 1500 stocks because the majority of them had free cash flow yields of about 4%, and they got evaporated, obliterated, because of this global shutdown. But the gold stocks didn't. They actually have rising free cash flow. They're going to show this quarter the price of gold is up, some of them had shut-ins for very temporary periods of time but their revenue, their cash flow, as a whole is going to truly outshine the overall industry. And when the quants and the fundamentalists start looking at where their growth is, these stocks are going to show up.

I did an analysis of only looking at free cash flow and picked the 10 gold stocks every quarter that had the highest free cash flow yield. And I sold them and bought them every quarter. I far outperformed any gold index. So that discipline shows up as a key metric to attract the quant fund or the generalist. When I look at my data—the two-year number is so important—I'm becoming very bullish on gold stocks.

When we talk about the names, my bias is U.S. Global GO GOLD and Precious Metal Miners ETF (GOAU). I launched this several years ago as a smart quant approach to picking gold stocks. It has three royalty companies that we talked about, Franco-Nevada, Wheaton Precious and Royal Gold. They're 30% of that ETF. They rebalance every quarter.

Then all the other names, they go down to a $200 million market cap but they have to be able to show the highest cash flow returns on invested capital. Once they do something silly or stupid, they're thrown out. Back testing, that model has outperformed the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) just on a basket of 60 gold stocks. This only has 28 names. Since I launched it, it's far outperformed on a rolling 12-month basis. It's smart data, and it dynamically recalibrates every quarter.

If you want to buy the individual names, then I would focus on those three big royalty companies. Thereafter, I would focus on those companies that have this metric I talk about, free cash flow yields. Out of the 100 gold stocks in the world that we follow, there are only about 14 of them that really have attractive free cash flow yields. What's interesting is that Barrick and Newmont—and Newmont's part of the S&P 500—does have a free cash flow yield that is positive, so you're seeing it has really done exceptionally well this past quarter because it has an attractive free cash flow yield and has not been hurt by the coronavirus.

SR: Let's switch gears for a moment. U.S. Global Funds runs the Jets ETF, an airline ETF. Obviously, the airlines have been battered. Do you see them coming back? Do you see bankruptcies?

FH: I think that the government agencies and the politicians have learned a lot from two big corrections: the 9/11 correction and 2008–2009. When you look at this industry, the Federal Aviation Administration says that 1 in 15 people is associated with the airline industry. That's huge. When you look at the multiplying effect of the airline industry, it's massive, just as housing is. One dollar for housing is worth $16 approximately. So when it comes to airlines, we're talking a double digit number of multiplying effect.

What's happened is that the government has been very smart this time to say we must make sure that we don't unwind this industry as we've done in previous times. So I think there's going to be a faster turnaround from the bailout policies.

What's happened with the airlines is they have ancillary revenue that has been very significant in the past five years. Some $20 billion of revenue then went to $100 billion of revenue, which covers a lot of costs. It aggravates you and me when we fly: change fees, baggage fees, but all these fees have let the airlines not be victimized by the price of oil because every time the price of oil went up, airline stocks fell. Every time oil went down, airlines went up. It was this inverse relationship that took place. Oil has represented less and less of ancillary fees. Now what's happened on this correction is not only the ancillary fees and everything have fallen, but oil has crashed. So airlines' biggest cost is way, way down. That means when they turn, and they come out of this correction, they have huge upside. Not only do they have the support of the government, they have the ability to start adding on these fees.

Because of the bailouts, airlines are not going to be able to buy back their stocks and they're not going to be increasing their dividends in this process. But that doesn't matter. Their revenue capacity per share is explosive. So I think that that's a very big difference.

SR: Anything else that you would like to talk to our readers about in this period of extreme volatility and uncertainty?

FH: Yes, bad news is good news. There's the optimism of trying to find who's going to be the solution to the problem. Had the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention used Google and Amazon technology, they probably could've adapted faster to this coronavirus. Amazon hired 100,000 people. It's amazing that in all that negative news, it adapted the fastest. It's trying to understand how capital markets morph. There are certain industry leaders. I love Clorox. I don't think that stock is going to be given away. I think it's one of those just steady dividend payer and growing dividend stocks. So it's in the negative news where you can find opportunities besides airlines, besides gold. You can turn around and find these other pockets.

SR: Thank you, Frank. I appreciate your time today.

Frank Holmes is CEO and chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors, which manages a diversified family of funds specializing in natural resources, emerging markets and gold and precious metals. In 2016, Holmes and portfolio manager Ralph Aldis received the award for Best Americas Based Fund Manager from the Mining Journal. In 2011 Holmes was named a U.S. Metals and Mining "TopGun" by Brendan Wood International, and in 2006, he was selected mining fund manager of the year by the Mining Journal. He is also the co-author of The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing. More than 30,000 subscribers follow his weekly commentary in the award-winning Investor Alert newsletter, which is read in over 180 countries. Holmes is a much sought-after keynote speaker at national and international investment conferences. He is also a regular commentator on the financial television networks CNBC, Bloomberg, BNN and Fox Business, and has been profiled by Fortune, Barron's, The Financial Times and other publications.

Disclosure:
1) Patrice Fusillo conducted this interview for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee. She owns, or members of her immediate household or family own, shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: None. She is, or members of her immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in this interview are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
3) Frank Holmes: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: N/A. I, or members of my immediate household or family, are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: HIVE Blockchain Technologies. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this interview: N/A. Funds controlled by U.S. Global Investors hold securities of the following companies mentioned in this article: Mene Inc., Franco-Nevada Corp., Royal Gold Inc., Wheaton Precious Metals, Newmont Mining, Barrick Gold Corp. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector. I had the opportunity to review the interview for accuracy as of the date of the interview and am responsible for the content of the interview.
4) The interview does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases. As of the date of this interview, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Franco-Nevada and Newmont Goldcorp, companies mentioned in this article.

( Companies Mentioned: FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE, MENE:TSX.V; MENEF:OTCMKTS, RGLD:NASDAQ; RGL:TSX, WPM:TSX; WPM:NYSE, )

Source: Peter Epstein for Streetwise Reports   05/07/2020

In late April, Metalla Royalty & Streaming acquired two royalties, one of which was a Gross Overriding Royalty (GOR) on NuLegacy Gold Corporation (NUG:TSX.V; NULGF:OTCQX) flagship Red Hill project, a Carlin-style deposit in Nevada's world-famous Cortez trend.

To be clear, this was a transaction between Metalla and a private company; no cash or other remuneration flowed to NuLegacy. However, this news is still exciting and thought provoking as it pertains to a potential (implied) valuation of Red Hill. So much so, that—CEO/director of Finance and Marketing—Albert Matter put out this press release highlighting it. {corporate presentation}

Metalla's news is applicable to NuLegacy for a number of reasons. Let me start by saying I know the Metalla team, I've written about the company several times (although not recently).

This is a smart, hard-working, market-savvy group, with global experience, integrity and expertise. When dealing in streams and royalties, it's all about industry connections, market knowledge and deal flow. Metalla has that and is up to its eyeballs in deal flow (deals it can make or pass on).

Takeaways on implied valuation of NuLegacy's Red Hill project?

That's why this news is so interesting. It represents a reliable, unbiased vote of confidence in NuLegacy's Red Hill project. I was able to track down the president, CEO and a director of Metalla, Mr. Brett Heath, to ask him about his team's view of NuLegacy, their management and technical teams, and the Red Hill project,

"The Red Hill project is very interesting due to its location & position within the Cortez trend of Nevada that hosts globally significant mines & projects, specifically Cortez Hills, Pipeline & Goldrush. Although many near-surface deposits have been discovered, several blind deposits similar to Goldrush have yet to be found.

"NuLegacy's Rift Anticline is a promising new drill target, a chance to discover a large, high-grade deposit. The close proximity of Red Hill to Goldrush heavily influenced our understanding of the geology at Red Hill. Specifically, it allowed us to better understand that the Rift Anticline has similar stratigraphy to Goldrush, and similar mineralization events nearby."

Investors, shareholders and analysts are trying to figure out what (if any) read-throughs there are in terms of the valuation of the Red Hill project.

From the press release:

"Valuing Gross Overriding Royalties ("GORs") is a complicated business made easier in this instance by the straightforward nature of the [transaction] …. prorating the US$4 million purchase price for the total of 2% GOR that was acquired…. values a 1% GOR in the Red Hill project at ~US$2 million."

What this valuation exercise boils down to is how does the value of a 1% GOR compare to a conventional working interest in the same project? GORs are highly case specific, so I will give a range of possibilities. Many factors make GORs unique, but a rule of thumb is that a 1% GOR equates to a 5% working interest.

However, due to the unknown terms of this particular GOR, let's assume that the 1% GOR is equal to between a 5% and 10% working interest. By extending the range higher than 5%, more conservative valuations for Red Hull are obtained. In the chart below one can see that the implied ~US$2 million paid for a 1% GOR equals C$2.8 million at the current exchange rate.

Therefore, Red Hill's indicative valuation could be viewed as C$28 million to C$56 million, or C$0.08 to C$0.15 per share. Currently, the stock's trading at C$0.07. The company has a cash balance of C$4.5 million. {see corporate presentation}. I believe the C$0.08 to C$0.15/share range is conservative because Metalla's purchase of the GOR had a built-in profit expectation. The true ascribed value of a 1% GOR on the Red Hill project might be higher than C$2.8 million.

A true vote of confidence in NuLegacy Gold

Perhaps more important than an implied (subjective) valuation of Red Hill are the following takeaways. First, Metalla not only likes Red Hill, it must also feel good about the long-term prospects for Nevada and the U.S. Metalla looks at hundreds of deals a year from all over the world. Management can, and does, invest in dozens of jurisdictions.

Yet, in April 2020, it chose the U.S., …. Nevada …. the Cortez Trend…. Second, it chose a project that's pre-maiden resource. Remember, Metalla has paid out ~C$2.8 million, but doesn't make a penny of that back unless it re-sells some or all of the GOR it acquired, or Red Hill reaches commercial production. Therefore, I argue that investing at this relatively early stage is a stamp of approval in the extensive work done to date at Red Hill.

That Metalla chose to deploy capital in a gold asset rather than a silver asset, despite the gold-silver ratio being near an all-time high (over 110 to 1) seems promising. Finally, it chose the U.S. at a time when the currencies of Mexico, Australia, Canada and others have weakened considerably vs. the U.S. dollar, making exploration cheaper in those countries. One must have conviction to choose Red Hill over dozens of public and private, pre-maiden resource, projects around the globe.

In the end, a good project in a great jurisdiction is only as prospective as its technical/management teams. NuLegacy has prudently advanced Red Hill in good times and bad. For most of NuLegacy's existence, the gold price traded between about $1,050 and $1,400/oz.

Gold price at $1,730/oz. is a game-changer….

Now gold is hovering around $1,730/oz after almost touching $1,800/oz in March. This is a game-changer for juniors like NuLegacy that have tremendous blue-sky potential, (look at neighboring mines and development projects, some of the best on the planet) but like most juniors, have limited funding to conduct aggressive drill programs in a strong gold price environment.

A savvy company betting on the Red Hill project is yet another indication that the time has come for precious metal players to become more active in M&A.

The day that Barrick commits its deep experience (and deep pockets!) to NuLegacy's Red Hill, all royalties held on that project would soar in value. Why? The timeline to potential production would be shortened, perhaps by years, (more drilling, less investor hand holding, perhaps skipping a PEA or a PFS). The scope of the project would become larger—more drilling across a wider footprint (a 108 sq. km land package).

The value of the royalties could double, triple, quadruple…. who knows? The share price at which NuLegacy gets taken out could also be meaningfully stronger. After all the company has been through, I don't think the Board would sell the company below C$0.30/share. At least not with the gold price at $1,730/oz (or higher). Readers are reminded that C$1.5 billon OceanaGold Corp. & giant natural resources fund Tocqueville own a combined 21.5% of the company.

Might there be a bidding war for NuLegacy?

In a best case example then, there could be multiple bidders for NuLegacy. This is not nearly as crazy as it sounds, especially if the gold price keeps going up, or if the next (fully funded) drill program hits the mark. If Barrick were to make a move, OceanaGold, Newmont, or even Tocqueville (they could hold out for higher price) might have something to say about it.

Those entities, and/or other mid-tiers/majors in Nevada or around the world would keep Barrick honest. Over the years NuLegacy has been in touch with several well-known names, but I never know who they're talking with at any given time. Make no mistake, Barrick is best positioned by virtue of having the most synergies with Red Hill, so it can afford to pay several more pennies per share if need be. That's how a share price of C$0.30+ becomes possible.

Bottom line, NuLegacy Gold (TSX-V: NUG) / (OTCQX: NULGF) is a high-risk exploration play, but I believe a good speculation. There's no better time to be buying high-risk exploration than when the prices of the metals being explored for are moving up.

As more attention is drawn to NuLegacy, its team, the undisputed safety of Nevada, the prolific nature of the Cortez Trend, etc., I think there's compelling relative and absolute value here that readers should consider investigating further.

Corporate Presentation

Peter Epstein is the founder of Epstein Research. His background is in company and financial analysis. He holds an MBA degree in financial analysis from New York University's Stern School of Business.

Disclosures: The content of this article is for information only. Readers fully understand and agree that nothing contained herein, written by Peter Epstein of Epstein Research [ER], (together, [ER]) about NuLegacy Gold, including but not limited to, commentary, opinions, views, assumptions, reported facts, calculations, etc. is not to be considered implicit or explicit investment advice. Nothing contained herein is a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. [ER] is not responsible under any circumstances for investment actions taken by the reader. [ER] has never been, and is not currently, a registered or licensed financial advisor or broker/dealer, investment advisor, stockbroker, trader, money manager, compliance or legal officer, and does not perform market making activities. [ER] is not directly employed by any company, group, organization, party or person. The shares of NuLegacy Gold are highly speculative, not suitable for all investors. Readers understand and agree that investments in small cap stocks can result in a 100% loss of invested funds. It is assumed and agreed upon by readers that they will consult with their own licensed or registered financial advisors before making any investment decisions.

At the time this article was posted, NuLegacy Gold was an advertiser on [ER] and Peter Epstein owned shares in the Company.

Readers understand and agree that they must conduct their own due diligence above and beyond reading this article. While the author believes he's diligent in screening out companies that, for any reasons whatsoever, are unattractive investment opportunities, he cannot guarantee that his efforts will (or have been) successful. [ER] is not responsible for any perceived, or actual, errors including, but not limited to, commentary, opinions, views, assumptions, reported facts & financial calculations, or for the completeness of this article or future content. [ER] is not expected or required to subsequently follow or cover events & news, or write about any particular company or topic. [ER] is not an expert in any company, industry sector or investment topic.

Streetwise Reports Disclosure:
1) Peter Epstein's disclosures are listed above.
2) The following companies mentioned in the article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Metalla Royalty & Streaming and Newmont Goldcorp, companies mentioned in this article.

Graphics provided by the author.

( Companies Mentioned: NUG:TSX.V; NULGF:OTCQX, )

The 2020 State of Disbursements: APAC Outlook Report by Rapyd...

More targeted aircraft testing and simulation should be conducted to uncover design characteristics in new flight control systems that -- in rare circumstances -- may mislead pilots and result in unstable or dangerous flight conditions, says a new report by a National Research Council committee.

Immigration benefits the U.S. economy overall and has little negative effect on the income and job opportunities of most native-born Americans, says a new report by a panel of the National Research Council.

Smokers who are exposed to radon appear to be at even greater risk for lung cancer, because the effects of smoking and radon are more powerful when the two factors are combined, says a new report by a committee of the National Research Council.

Bacteria that resist antibiotics can be passed from food animals to humans, but not enough is known to determine the public health risks posed by such transmission, says a new report by a committee of the National Research Council.

Radon in household water supplies increases peoples overall exposure to the gas, but waterborne radon poses few risks to human health, says a new report by a committee of the National Research Council.

Incineration is widely used in the United States to reduce the volume of waste. Hundreds of incinerators -- including industrial kilns, boilers, and furnaces -- combust municipal and hazardous waste, while many more are used to burn medical waste.

Insufficient evidence exists to support claims that taking megadoses of dietary antioxidants, such as selenium and vitamins C and E, or carotenoids, including beta-carotene, can prevent chronic diseases, says the latest report on Dietary Reference Intakes (DRIs) from the Institute of Medicine of the National Academies.

Although the federal program that sets fuel economy standards for cars and light-duty trucks has helped reduce U.S. dependence on imported oil and lower emissions of greenhouse gases, changes to the program could further cut the nations petroleum dependence and provide more flexibility to carmakers.

Representatives from academies and research organizations around the world sent messages of condolence and support to members, officials and staff of the U.S. National Academies in the wake of terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. The following are excerpts from some of these messages.

Scientific evidence is insufficient to prove or disprove the theory that exposure to polio vaccine contaminated with a monkey virus between 1955 and 1963 has triggered cancer in humans, says a new report from the Institute of Medicine of the National Academies.

Based on a thorough review of clinical and epidemiological studies, neither the mercury-based vaccine preservative thimerosal nor the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine are associated with autism, says a new report from the Institute of Medicine of the National Academies.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agencys standard for the maximum amount of fluoride allowed in drinking water -- 4 milligrams of fluoride per liter of water -- does not protect against adverse health effects.

There is sufficient evidence from tree rings, boreholes, retreating glaciers, and other proxies of past surface temperatures to say with a high level of confidence that the last few decades of the 20th century were warmer than any comparable period in the last 400 years, according to a new report from the National Research Council.