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• Euro area growth is projected to be sluggish
• Sees downside risks to growth
• Waiting on December projections for a better picture of where we stand

So far, he's not saying anything to jolt market pricing. And that's the other main consideration for any of their communications before making policy decisions. As such, a 25 bps rate cut in December remains the likeliest option at this stage. EUR/USD remains down 0.2% on the day at 1.0626 currently.

• One year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 3.0% last month. That is the lowest in four years
• Three-year inflation expectations 2.5% versus 2.7% last month
• Five-year inflation expectations 2.8% versus 2.9% last month

other details :

• Consumers in October saw lower likelihood of missing a minimum debt payment for the first time in five months
• Consumers in October saw lowest likelihood of a rising US unemployment rate over the next year since February 2022
• Consumers saw lower chance of losing current job and improved prospects for finding a new job if current job were lost
• Unemployment expectations decline to 34.5%, lowest since February 2022
• Probability of finding a job increase the highest level since October 2023

This is good news is inflation expectations help to keep a lid on actual inflation. Nevertheless yields remain near highs for the day.

• 2 year 4.321%, +6.7 basis points
• 5-year 4.281%, +8.9 basis points
• 10 year 4.390%, 8.2 basis points

US stocks are lower:

• Dow -0.38%
• S&P -0.33%
• NASDAQ -0.14%

Comments from the Minneapolis Fed President in conversation with Yahoo Finance.

• Contacts are optimistic
• We have to wait and see what the new government policies are, we will have to wait and see
• A one-time tariff increase in transitory but it can become tit-for-tat, right now we're all just guessing
• Immigration could have a big effect but we will have to see what will happen
• New lease inflation takes a couple years to work its way through
• We have good confidence that the housing piece of inflation will get to normal levels, though it may take a year or two
• The labor market has been surprisingly resilient, it's a good labor market
• The economy looks like it's in a strong position
• If we saw inflation surprise to the upside between now and December, that might give us pause
• Probably not enough time for jobs to surprise on the upside
• Productivity looks like it's been stronger, which could mean a higher neutral rate
• If so, we may not cut as much
• We all agree that we're above neutral now
• The rise in long-term yields doesn't look like it's about long-term inflation expectations
• I think we're modestly restrictive right now. I thought we were putting two feet on the brakes but in hindsight we were only putting one foot on the brake
• My judgement is that we still have a long ways to go in shrinking the balance sheet
• Ultimately the economy will guide us in terms of how far we need to cut rates

Kashkari is candid and is oftentimes dovish but he sounded less like someone who wants to keep on cutting. His comment about one foot on the brakes was helpful in illustrating how he sees the economy and rates. The interesting discussion is about neutral right now and how close the Fed wants to go. He also touched on a longer timeline to get inflation all the way back to 2% and that should keep the Fed in the high 3s assuming no sharp slowdown in the economy. Of course, the Fed curve is also pricing 3.80% as the terminal rate.

Deutsche Bank has revised its forecast for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) terminal rate, lowering its central-case projection from 2.25% to 1.50%. The bank now anticipates the ECB’s policy rate will dip slightly below the neutral rate by the end of 2025, rather than returning to neutral by mid-year as previously expected.

This shift in outlook is driven by several factors, including the potential for new tariffs from a Trump administration, which would likely impact trade, along with weaker macroeconomic performance in Europe and the increasing risk of inflation falling below target.

According to Deutsche Bank, the uncertainty surrounding these dynamics is considerable, especially given the unclear timing and effects of U.S. tariffs and potential European responses. Reflecting this uncertainty, the bank has outlined a broad target range of 1.00% to 1.75% for the ECB’s terminal rate.

Deutsche Bank notes that the terminal rate’s trajectory and ultimate level will depend on key influences such as:

1. European fiscal policy,
2. the economic health of Germany,
3. developments in China,
4. and fluctuations in oil prices.

The bank further suggests that the global economy may be entering a new phase, with Europe potentially experiencing increasingly divergent economic conditions compared to the U.S.

The election is going to dominate early November trading so making moves based on seasonals is unwise. That said, it's useful to keep them in mind as the dust settles.

• November is the best month for USD/JPY
• Best month for the Nasdaq
• Third-best month for the US dollar
• The November through February is strong for gold
• Second-best month for the S&P 500
• Second-best month for the MSCI world index
• Second-best month for the German DAX
• Best month for the Nikkei 225
• The final month of the seasonal slump for oil. Seasonals neutral in Dec-Jan then strongly positve from Feb-June

Going into last November, the S&P 500 had declined for three straight months but that month marked a turning point as it recouped nearly all the gains in what was the beginning of a five-month rally. This time, we're coming into the month with better momentum, though October was negative for stocks.

More records are reached today:

• Dow industrial average closes over 44,000 for the first time ever
• S&P index closes above the 6000 level the first time ever
• NASDAQ index closes at a new record level as well

For the Russell 2000 it lasts record close was back on November 8, 2021 at 2442.21. The index closed at 2434.97 after reaching an intraday high of 2441.72 just short of the record closing level.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average +304.14 points or 0.69% at 44293.13
• S&P index up 5.81 points or 0.10% at 6001.35
• NASDAQ index is up 11.99 points or 0.06% at 19298.76
• Russell 2000 up 35.33 points or 1.47% at 2434.97

For the Russell 2000, its high intraday level reached 2458.85 on November 10, 2021. For the year, the Russell 2000 is now up 20.12%. That has now surpassed a down industrial average gain of 17.52%.

The S&P index is now up 25.82% in 2024 while the NASDAQ index is up 28.56%.

The USDCAD moved higher in the Asian session and extended above the highs over the last few weeks between 1.3945 and 1.3958. The high price extended to 1.39664 but fell short of the 2022 high which came in at 1.3977.

The inability to move higher turn the buyers to sellers, and the price has rotated back down toward the close from yesterday's trade where buyers have stalled the fall.

On the downside, the next major target comes against the rising 100 and 200 hour moving averages between 1.3908 and 1.3911. It would take a move below that area to increase the bearish bias with the 100 bar moving average on a four hour chart the next downside target at 1.38868.

On the top side, getting back above 1.3945 and 1.3958 would have traders looking again toward the 2022 high at 1.3977. Get above that level opens the door for further upside potential.

----------------------------------------------

USDCAD Summary

The USDCAD rose in the Asian session, approaching 2022 highs.

Key Points:

1. Broke above recent highs (1.3945-1.3958).

2. Reached 1.39664, shy of 2022 high (1.3977).

3. Buyers turned sellers, and the price fell.

Outlook:

Bullish Scenario

Move above 1.3945, 1.3958, and 1.3977 confirms further upside.

Bearish Scenario

Break below 1.3908-1.3911 (100/200-hour MA) and 1.38868 (100-bar MA) increases bearish bias.

Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 1.3945, 1.3958, 1.3977

• Support: 1.3908, 1.3911, 1.38868

Hello, this is Itai Levitan at ForexLive.com. Today, I’m diving into Natural Gas Futures (NG), which are trading around 2.92 as of yesterday's close. This analysis will be relevant to those of you looking at CFDs, futures themselves, or stocks related to natural gas. Here’s a detailed view of my approach:

Natural Gas Futures Overview

Currently, we’re seeing Natural Gas Futures in a significant channel on the weekly time frame. There’s potential for a bullish breakout from a large bull flag formation, highlighted by the recent piercing through the upper edge of this channel. However, we’re still in uncertain territory—it’s possible the price may reverse back down, retesting the flag before making any decisive move.

Dip Buying Extreme Targeting

I’m looking closely at the potential for an extreme dip buying opportunity in natural gas. When I say “extreme dip buying,” I’m talking about setting up a longer-term, strategic plan that goes beyond typical levels. Instead of just waiting for an undefined "deep drop," I'm identifying specific price levels that could offer remarkable buying opportunities if the market hits them.

Long-Term Support Levels to Watch

Here’s what I'm focusing on for a deeper dip buy:

1. 1.612 (Low of 2016) – This level may present an attractive medium-term long position, suitable for swing trades.
2. 1.44 (Low of 2020) – Similar to 1.612, this level could offer a profitable swing opportunity, though not necessarily for a prolonged hold.

While these are appealing points for shorter-term trades, I recommend partial profit-taking here to mitigate risk if the price reverses sharply.

Generational Low Opportunity at 1.25

For the patient, long-term investors, my primary area of interest lies around 1.25—the historic low from 1995, nearly 30 years ago. This level represents a “generational low,” providing a triple layer of support:

• The lower bound of the channel.
• The major, longer-term channel trendline.
• The historic 1.25 support level from 1995.

If natural gas reaches this area, it could be a highly attractive long-term buy. I suggest setting several buy orders around 1.25 to capture a position here and holding for substantial potential upside. Patience will be key—having some trading capital reserved for this area could be a game-changing strategy.

The Ultimate Extreme at 1.04

If something drastic occurs and the price reaches 1.04, the all-time low from the 1990s, it would represent a multi-generational low. This level would likely attract significant buying interest from funds, institutions, and individual investors. Similar to the parity level we saw with EUR/USD, this psychological round number could spur major accumulation and serve as an unparalleled buying opportunity.

Summary and Final Thoughts on Natural Gas and Exteme Dip Buying

In summary:

• Stay Patient: This strategy involves waiting for rare, extreme dip-buying levels.
• Allocate Capital Strategically: Save some ammunition for these lower levels, where the upside potential is considerable.
• Monitor Support Levels Closely: Levels like 1.25 and 1.04 represent deeply discounted entry points that could yield long-term gains.

Follow ForexLive.com for additional insights for investors and traders, and let’s keep an eye on these setups. Extreme opportunities don’t come often, so be prepared and thank me later!

The AUDUSD has moved lower to a swing area low at 0.65357. The high of the swing area comes in at 0.65537. It would take a move above that level and then the 61.8% at 0.6575, to give the buyers more confidence and cause the sellers to have some cause for pause.

ON the downside, a break of 0.6535 would target the low from last weekend 0.6511. That is near the last two session lows going back to early August. oh below that level and traders look toward 0.6463 to 0.6486.

The price action last week in the AUDUSD was up and down with big moves in either direction.Through the first two days of this week, volatility is less, but the bias is more to the downside. That bias would be even more bearish if the 0.6535 level can be broken along with the low price from last week at 0.6511.

------------------------------------

AUD/USD Summary

The AUD/USD fell to a swing area low at 0.65357.

Key Points:

1. Swing area: 0.65357 (low) - 0.65537 (high).

2. Buyers need a break above 0.65537 and 0.6575 (61.8% level).

3. Sellers target last weekend's low: 0.6511.

Outlook:

Bullish Scenario

Move above 0.65537 and 0.6575 boosts buyer confidence.

Bearish Scenario

Break below 0.6535 and 0.6511 confirms bearish bias, targeting 0.6463-0.6486.

Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 0.65537, 0.6575

• Support: 0.65357, 0.6511, 0.6463-0.6486

The USDJPY is extending to a new session high after testing is 61.8% retracement earlier in the day at 153.397 and finding willing buyers.

The market to the upside has now taken the price to a high of 154.75. That has extended above the high price from last week at 154.704. The buyers are making a play.

The swing high going back to July 30 came in at 155.21, and that becomes the next key target on the topside for the pair.

BofA suggests staying short on CHF, particularly against USD and GBP, as post-election volatility subsides and G10 rate repricing supports a weaker CHF. While political risks may pose a minor obstacle, BofA sees CHF depreciation as likely due to policy divergence, with recent fiscal stimulus in the UK reinforcing the case for long GBP/CHF.

Key Points:

• CHF Weakness Expected: Following the US election, BofA expects normalization in volatility and G10 rate adjustments, which support a weaker CHF heading into year-end.

• Policy Divergence and SNB Cuts: CHF depreciation has been driven by Swiss policy moves, including an SNB rate cut, and ongoing yield compression. Increased Swiss inflation has also pressured CHF.

• Positioning in USD/CHF and GBP/CHF: BofA favors short CHF positions in USD/CHF and recently opened a long GBP/CHF position via a three-month ratio call spread, driven by UK fiscal stimulus enhancing policy divergence.

• Risk Management Considerations: While CHF shorts are promising, BofA advises a cautious approach due to potential political uncertainties that could affect CHF.

Conclusion:

BofA recommends holding short CHF positions in USD/CHF and GBP/CHF, as volatility recedes and policy divergence favors a weaker CHF. Though political noise may cause short-term volatility, BofA sees CHF depreciation persisting into year-end, with UK fiscal moves strengthening the case for GBP/CHF.

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The US CPI will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET. What is expected?

• October Headline CPI expected to rise by 0.2% MoM, which is the same as last month. The forecasted range is 0.1 to 0.3%.
• YoY Headline CPI expected to increase to 2.6%, up from 2.4%, with a forecast range of 2.3 to 2.6%. A change of 0.0% will fall out of the YoY calculation this month.
• Core CPI projected to rise 0.3% MoM and 3.3% YoY, matching the previous month. The forecast range is 0.2 to 0.3% MoM and 3.2 to 3.4% Y/Y. A year ago, a gain of 0.2% falls out of the calculation.

The US PPI will be released on Thursday with the expectations of 0.2% for the MoM headline and 0.3% for the core measure.

Fed's Barkin this morning on inflation kept it simple saying::

• Inflation might be coming under control or might risk getting stuck above Fed 2% target.

Kashkari had more to say about inflation today with different influences. He said.

• Uncertainty exists around the impact of new government policies on inflation.
• A one-time tariff increase is transitory but could become a sustained issue if it escalates, introducing inflation risks.
• Immigration policy changes could have a significant effect on inflation, but the outcome is uncertain.
• Inflation from new leases will take a couple of years to work through the system.
• Housing inflation is expected to return to normal levels, but it may take a year or two.
• If inflation surprises to the upside before December, it may affect policy decisions.
• Current long-term yield increases don’t seem to reflect heightened inflation expectations.
• Higher productivity could suggest a higher neutral rate, potentially influencing future rate cuts.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

There were numerous Fed speakers on Tuesday, US time:

• Fed's Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I'm optimistic that will continue
• Fed's Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolves
• Fed's Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook

and we get one more today in Asia:

• 2200 GMT / 1700 US Eastern time - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speaks on "Fintech, AI and the Changing Financial Landscape".

Which doesn't sound too promising for remarks from him on the economy or monetary policy. But, perhaps we'll get a mortsel thrown to us in any Q&A.

***

As for the data agenda, it's a bit of a yawn, none of it likely to move around major FX upon release.

From Japan we'll get an update of wholesale inflation - the PPI for October. The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI)

• its a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output
• is calculated by the Bank of Japan

Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the price change that consumers see for a basket of goods and services, the CGPI focuses on the change in the prices of goods sold by companies.

The PPI reflects some of cost pressures faced by producers

• its based on a basket of goods that represents the range of products produced within the Japanese economy, including items such as:
  • raw materials like metals and chemicals
  • semi-finished goods
  • and finished products
  • different weights are assigned to each category within the index based on its contribution to the overall economy.
• it does not account for the quality improvements in goods and services over time, which might lead to overestimation of inflation
  • additionally, it reflects only the prices of domestically produced goods, leaving out the impact of imported goods

The PPI can be used as a guide to inflationary pressures in the economy:

• If producers are facing higher costs, they may pass these on to consumers, leading to higher consumer prices.

***

From Australia we'll get wages data for Q3. Wage growth is expected to keep slowing (y/y) in Q3 2024. With the labor market softening, upward pressure on wages has been easing over recent quarters.

In Commonwealth Bank of Australia's preview they cite their internal data as indicating a quarterly wage growth of around 0.9%, a notable decrease from the 1.3% growth seen in the same quarter last year, which had been boosted by a significant 5.75% increase in award and minimum wages. As a result, the annual wage growth rate is projected to fall to 3.6%, bringing it closer to a level compatible with sustainable, in-target inflation.

While the labour market softening, but from strong levels, the RBA is eyeing wage growth as a factor helping keep inflation sticky. A moderation in growth for wages will be welcomed by the bank if it translates into softening price pressure also.

• This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
• I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.

• US indices close lower on the day. No new records today.
• Bitcoin trades above $90,000 for the first time. It broke the $80,000 level on Monday
• US CPI to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for 0.2% MoM
• It's not a pretty picture in China
• Fed's Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I'm optimistic that will continue
• BofA: Life don't come easy for CHF: What's the trade?
• US 10 year yield looks to close at the highest level since July 1
• Major European indices are closing sharply lower
• John Paulson drops out of the running for Treasury Secretary
• New York Fed: 1-year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 3.0% last month
• Fed's Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolves
• Fed's Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook
• And they are off. US stocks are marginally higher in the early trading
• LiteFinance Becomes the Official Trading Partner of Leicester City Football Club
• Kickstart the FX day. A look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective
• Canada Sept building permits +11.5% vs +1.7% expected
• Forexlive European FX news wrap: Not much action as we await the US CPI release tomorrow

Markets:

• Bitcoin trades to $90,000 for the first time, two days after passing $80,000. The high reached $90,243
• WTI crude trades down $0.07 at $67.97
• 2 year yield 4.338%, up 8.4 basis points. 10 year yield 4.421%, +11.4 basis points.
• Gold down -$20.78 or -0.79% at $2598.58. Lowest level since September 20
• S&P 500 -17.36 points or -0.29% at 5983.99.
• Nasdaq index down -17.36 points or -0.09% at 19,281.40. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P closed by the exact same point amount....
• Russell 2000 tumbled -43.13 points or -1.77% at 2391.84

In the US the NY Fed Survey showed inflation expectations moving lower with the one year inflation at 2.9% vs 3.0% estimate. That is the lowest in 4 years. The 3 and five years measures also declined with the 3 year down to 2.5% from 2.7%, and the 5 year down to 2.8% from 2.9%.

In Canada building permits soared by 11.5% after -6.3% decline last month. Overall permits were the second-highest level since the start of the new series in January 2017 but it's more of a one-off around government spending than anything related to the economy. Ontario's institutional component received big contributions from construction for long-term care facilities across the province and a hospital permit in Prince Edward County. Residential building is holding up on the multi-family side as the pipeline of condos continues to work its way through but single-family has flatlined.

The US bond market was open after Monday's Veteran's Day holiday and selling was the order of the day as traders price in the inflationary and growth implications of a GOP sweep (and perhaps increased deficits too). The 10-year yield rose close to 12 basis points. The 2 year is up close to 9 basis points.

The USD moved higher with the greenback moving the most vs the GBP (0.95%).. The GBPUSD moved to the lowest level since August 8 and traded below the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the April low. That level comes in at 1.27322. The current price is trading just above that level into the close for the day.

The EURUSD is rallying modestly into the close but still saw the dollar higher by 0.26% versus the EUR. The pair moved below the 1.0601 level which took to price to a new low for 2024. The low could only get to 1.0594 before bouncing higher into the close. The sellers in the EURUSD had their shot. They missed.

The USDJPY is closing higher by 0.61% and into a swing area between 154.54 and 155.21. The high price reached 154.92 extending above the high price from last week at 154.70. The price is trading at 154.62 into the close. Buyers are in control. Can they extend to the high target at 155.21.

The USDCAD traded to the highest level going back to October 2022 when the price extended to 1.3977. The high price today reached 1.3966 just 11 pips short of that high. The price is trading at 1.3949 going into the end of the trading day.

Gold continues its move to the downside after reaching record levels at the end of October at $2790.07. The price has since fallen -6.89% to $2597.88.

Bitcoin's sprint to the topside continued today with the price reaching above $90,000 for the first time ever and just 2-days after breaking above the $80,000 level. The high price reached $90,243. The price has come off that lofty level and trades at $88,092.

Since its founding in 2004, Dukascopy has grown into a trusted, innovative leader in the fintech and online trading space, providing clients with advanced tools and a stable platform for smart financial decisions.

Over the past 20 years, Dukascopy has reached major milestones that reflect its core values of stability, innovation, and putting clients first. From its proprietary JForex platform to the popular MT4 and MT5, Dukascopy offers a variety of trading platforms along with modern neo-banking services for both individuals, businesses, and institutions. The bank has also led the way in technology upgrades with White Label and banking-as-a-platform solutions.

As Dr.Andre Duka, Dukascopy’s founder, says, "Innovation has always been at the heart of what we do. We aim to continue delivering these high standards into the future. Thank you, our clients, for choosing us for these 20 years."

Currently, Dukascopy (https://dukascopy.click/agw) proudly serves over 400,000 clients across both trading and banking services. This commitment to delivering cutting-edge solutions, backed by Swiss-grade stability, has allowed the company to maintain long-term relationships with clients, many of whom have been trading and banking with Dukascopy for decades.

As the company looks toward the future, Dukascopy remains focused on empowering traders and banking clients, expecting significant growth of its client base across all segments, from trading to neo-banking, corporate to white-label services.

The MSTR chart is a perfect example of the importance of market timing. The MSTR stock did nothing for almost two decades! Imagine investing in it early and waiting 20 years to get a return.

If you want to have conviction in your ideas, you need to know what moves your stocks and position for that change. In the book “The New Market Wizards”, Stanley Druckenmiller said this in response to the question of how he evaluates stocks:

“When I first started out, I did very thorough papers covering every aspect of a stock or industry. Before I could make the presentation to the stock selection committee, I first had to submit the paper to the research director."

"I particularly remember the time I gave him my paper on the banking industry. I felt very proud of my work. However, he read through it and said, This is useless. What makes the stock go up and down? That comment acted as a spur."

"Thereafter, I focused my analysis on seeking to identify the factors that were strongly correlated to a stock's price movement as opposed to looking at all the fundamentals. Frankly, even today, many analysts still don't know what makes their particular stocks go up and down.”

His number one advice? Do not invest in the present. The present does not move stock prices. Change moves them.

MicroStrategy is basically a Bitcoin play, so you just need to know where Bitcoin is going to trade MSTR stock. No valuation analysis needed.

The catalyst for the latest rally? Trump's victory.

This is why waiting for the right catalysts is paramount. Not only does it tell you WHEN to trade, but it also gives you an IMMEDIATE feedback on whether you are right or wrong. That helps with knowing when to bet more and when to get out to keep your drawdown low.

In brief from WPAC's note:

• September quarter Wage Price Index below the RBA’s expectation which pointed to a 0.9%qtr rise in both the September and December quarters of 2024
• Wage inflation peaked at 4.3%yr in December 2023 and has been drifting lower through 2024
• Wage Price Index (WPI) rose 0.8% (3.5%yr) ... The RBA is currently forecasting annual wages growth to print 3.4%yr for end 2024 and hold at that rate through to June 2025.

***

The WPI should easily come in under that RBA forecast by end 2024. While some will point to slowing wages as a reason to cut rates the RBA is in no hurry, still war of elevated demand and inflation likely to pop back above the top of the 2 - 3% target band once government cost of living subsidies roll off.

• Fed speakers on energy, the economy, and maybe policy due on Wednesday
• US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they're crucial to know)
• AUD traders heads up - Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock speaks Thursday
• The argument for a near-term Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut remains very thin
• Japan's Seven & i Holdings is considering a management buyout
• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann speaking Wednesday
• Australia - "Wage inflation is moderating as expected"
• PBoC promised stronger damping to support CNY, and that's what are seeing
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1991 (vs. estimate at 7.2305)
• Dogecoin catches a bid on Trump's new DOGE department headed by Musk
• Trump names Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy to lead Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)
• Australia data - Wage Price Index for Q3 2024: +0.8% q/q (expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%)
• Japan PPI (October) +0.2% m/m (expected 0%) and +3.4% y/y (expected +3.0%)
• Barclays on oil - current market dynamics relatively stable, doesn't foresee major shifts
• ECB Interest Rate Forecast: Deutsche Bank's 7 reasons for projecting a lower terminal rate
• BoA expect a 4% EPS benefit for S&P 500 equites from Trump corporate tax cuts
• US CPI data due Wednesday - possible upside surprise.
• Green shoots in China? Excavator sales grew 15% in October
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 12 Nov: Bitcoin hits $90K. Stocks fall. USD moves higher.
• NY Fed Perli says there's been more friction in money mkts lately, repo rate rise orderly
• Amazon’s Bezos sells US$1.25bn of shares
• US indices close lower on the day. No new records today.
• Bitcoin trades above $90,000 for the first time. It broke the $80,000 level on Monday
• Trade ideas thread - Wednesday, 13 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Small ranges prevailed during Asia time with many traders content to wait until the US inflation data later.

• US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they're crucial to know)

Data events during the session here were lower-tier. We had PPI data from Japan coming in higher than expected. Renewed yen weakness pushed up import costs for some goods. At the margin, an argument can be made that the data was supportive of a nearer-term Bank of Japan rate hike. Against this is, of course, is the new political pressure on the Bank to not hike until wages are seen rising at the next round of wage negotiations in (Japan's) spring. Many months away. The Bank of Japan next meet on December 18 - 19.

USD/JPY moved a little higher, but didn’t get to 155.00. As I post its around the middle of its session range circa 154.80.

Data from Australia showed wage growth moderating a little. This is not sufficient for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its cash rate any time soon. The next meeting is December 9 – 10, and then in February (17 – 18).

Earlier this week People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized that the Bank will not let the yuan plummet without a fight:

• Will step up countercyclical adjustment
• Should resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot

Today the Bank set the USD/CNY reference rate more than 300 points lower than model estimates (ie a stronger yuan). The Bank delivered on its word to support the yuan. Offshore yuan has jumped (lower USD/CNH).

Bitcoin sat near US$88K.

Why it's important?

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.

In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.

Distribution of forecasts for CPI

CPI Y/Y

• 2.7% (2%)
• 2.6% (56%) - consensus
• 2.5% (28%)
• 2.4% (12%)
• 2.3% (2%)

CPI M/M

• 0.3% (17%)
• 0.2% (73%) - consensus
• 0.1% (10%)

Core CPI Y/Y

• 3.4% (8%)
• 3.3% (81%) - consensus
• 3.2% (11%)

Core CPI M/M

• 0.4% (4%)
• 0.3% (82%) - consensus
• 0.2% (14%)

Analysis

We can ignore the headline CPI as the market will focus on the Core figures. We can notice that we have a pretty strong consensus and not much skew on either side.

Nonetheless, there's been a consistent bid in the US Dollar going into this report with Treasury yields higher and stocks kinda rangebound. The market might have already assigned some premium to a higher than expected print, so there's some risk of a short-term "sell the fact" reaction on a higher than expected number.

It goes without saying that a bigger than expected upside surprise should see the momentum increasing immediately with the US Dollar likely rallying across the board and Treasury yields shooting higher.

On the other hand, a soft print will likely see the US Dollar and Treasury yields falling, although one can argue that it's just going to provide a pullback to go long the US Dollar and short bonds again at even better levels as future conditions will likely see inflation getting stuck above the target or even moving back higher.

• Headline CPI reading not telling us that underlying inflation dynamics have been vanquished
• Services inflation is pretty sticky
• Energy prices are more likely to go up than down
• Sees more volatility and upward bias to some inflation drivers

Do keep in mind that Mann is arguably the most hawkish member among the BOE policy committee. So, her comments here are not as striking as they might seem to be.

For some context, these subsidies did come to an end in May but were reinstated in August through to October to cope with the warmer weather. Subsequently, they were continued until this year-end but the funds had to be drawn from reserves in the budget for the fiscal year that started in April.

NHK is now reporting that the government is considering keeping these subsidies from January through to March next year. Amid a higher cost of living in key populated areas such as Tokyo, the measure above is mainly to try and combat rising consumer prices.

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