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COVID-19's Painful Lesson About Strategy and Power

Joseph Nye writes that while trade wars have set back economic globalization,  the environmental globalization represented by pandemics and climate change is unstoppable. Borders are becoming more porous to everything from drugs to infectious diseases to cyber terrorism, and the United States must use its soft power of attraction to develop networks and institutions that address these new threats.




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Spies Are Fighting a Shadow War Against the Coronavirus

Calder Walton describes four ways how intelligence services are certain to contribute to defeating COVID-19 and why pandemic intelligence will become a central part of future U.S. national security.




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No, the Coronavirus Will Not Change the Global Order

Joseph Nye advises skepticism toward claims that the pandemic changes everything. China won't benefit, and the United States will remain preeminent.




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Getting Smart on Pandemics: Intelligence in the Wake of COVID-19

This episode of Horns of a Dilemma touches on whether the failure to properly anticipate and warn about the novel coronavirus constitutes an intelligence failure, what changes might be required in the intelligence community in the wake of the pandemic, and what type of investigation or inquiry might be appropriate in order to learn lessons and incorporate changes for both the intelligence community and the whole of government moving forward.




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There's No Such Thing as Good Liberal Hegemony

Stephen Walt argues that as democracies falter, it's worth considering whether the United States made the right call in attempting to create a liberal world order.




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How the Pentagon Is Struggling to Stay out of Politics

 Gen. Mark. A. Milley’s job is to provide sound military advice to the president. But at a deeper level, his responsibility is to safeguard the independence and integrity of the armed forces. The last thing the country needs is a military leadership that’s trying to curry favor with any commander in chief, particularly one who’s hungry for affirmation.




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Coronavirus Crisis Shows Cracks in the U.S. Governing System, Analysts Say

China’s autocratic system has performed better in some aspects than America’s democracy so far in responding to the coronavirus pandemic, but it is too early to write off the United States despite its many early missteps, analysts at a China Institute event said.




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Coronavirus Blame Game ‘a Childish Distraction’

Since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, China and the US have been engaged in a wide spectrum of competition that has enhanced their rivalry. We have seen debates and arguments about China's one-party system versus the US democratic system, the China-US blame game, and the ideology-centered media war. How will the pandemic reshape China-US relations? Is cooperation still possible to address the unexpected global challenge posed by the virus? Global Times (GT) reporter Wang Wenwen talked to Graham Allison (Allison), professor at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard and author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides' Trap?, on these issues.




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China After Coronavirus – Should We Ever Trust Beijing Again?

The coronavirus has exposed even deeper fault lines in the increasingly acrimonious U.S.-China relationship. The U.S. is now taking appropriate measures to mitigate the risk to our national security of relying on China for critical technology, precious metals and medical supplies.




on

No, the Coronavirus Will Not Change the Global Order

Joseph Nye advises skepticism toward claims that the pandemic changes everything. China won't benefit, and the United States will remain preeminent.




on

There's No Such Thing as Good Liberal Hegemony

Stephen Walt argues that as democracies falter, it's worth considering whether the United States made the right call in attempting to create a liberal world order.




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COVID’s Broader Impacts: Risks and Recommendations

While the world’s health and economy are the clearest victims of COVID-19, the pandemic has impacted nearly every aspect of society – from national security to international relationships. We asked several of our experts to share their thoughts on risks and/or recommendations that policymakers and the public should consider in the coming weeks and months.




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Next Moves on Climate Policy: A Conversation with Sue Biniaz

Sue Biniaz, former lead climate negotiator for the United States, shared her thoughts on the postponement of COP-26, and on the possible re-engagement of the U.S. in the international effort to address climate change in the newest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program,” a podcast produced by the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.




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Harvard Project on Climate Agreements Hosts COP25 Panel on Realizing the Potential of Article 6

A highly engaged and well-informed audience filled the Pavilion of the International Emissions Trading Association at the 25th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP25) on December 11 in Madrid to hear from an expert panel about the current state of negotiations on linkage, international cooperation, and the Paris Agreement. The discussion, “Realizing the Potential of Article 6,” was hosted by the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements (HPCA) and moderated by HPCA Director Professor Robert Stavins.




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The Madrid Climate Conference’s Real Failure was Not Getting a Broad Deal on Global Carbon Markets

Robert N. Stavins writes that the negotiations failed to reach one of their key stated goals: writing meaningful rules to help facilitate global carbon markets. As an economist, he sees this as a real disappointment — although not the fatal failure some portray it to be.




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Harvard Project Releases New Paper on Creating Subnational Climate Institutions in China

Michael Davidson explores Chinese provinces’ roles in formulating and implementing climate-change policy, in the context of a broader understanding of administrative and political relationships between provincial and central governments.




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Creating Subnational Climate Institutions in China

This discussion paper (available in English and Chinese) describes the evolution of decentralization over the reform period that began in China in 1978, different theories of institutional change in China, and how the empirical and theoretical literatures help scholars and policymakers understand the development of institutions for governing GHG-emitting activities.




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Economics Can Still Help Solve the Climate Crisis

Critics called last month's UN Climate Summit a disaster, but environmental economist and Harvard Kennedy School Professor Robert Stavins says global climate negotiators actually laid the groundwork for meaningful results in the future.




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Environmental Insights Interview with Jos Delbeke

Jos Delbeke, Professor at the European University Institute in Florence and at the KU Leuven in Belgium, recounted the history of carbon pricing and voiced his optimism for further international efforts to combat climate change in the newest episode of "Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program."




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Former European Commission Climate Negotiator Jos Delbeke Shares Firsthand Account of Carbon Pricing Evolution in New Episode of “Environmental Insights”

Jos Delbeke, Professor at the European University Institute in Florence and at the KU Leuven in Belgium, recounted the evolution of carbon pricing and voiced his optimism for further international efforts to combat climate change in the newest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.”




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Harvard Professor David Keith Discusses Potential Promises and Pitfalls of Solar Geoengineering in New Episode of "Environmental Insights"

David Keith, Gordon McKay Professor of Applied Physics at the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, and Professor of Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School, discussed his groundbreaking research and policy work in the field of solar geoengineering in the newest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.” Listen to the interview here.




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Subnational Climate Change Policy in China

This volume of briefs examines subnational climate-change policy in China — including how Chinese provinces and municipalities work with the central government to implement policy. The volume focuses to a considerable degree on how China’s subnational (pilot) emissions-trading systems can inform the emerging national carbon-pricing system.




on

Coronavirus Crisis Shows Cracks in the U.S. Governing System, Analysts Say

China’s autocratic system has performed better in some aspects than America’s democracy so far in responding to the coronavirus pandemic, but it is too early to write off the United States despite its many early missteps, analysts at a China Institute event said.




on

Coronavirus Blame Game ‘a Childish Distraction’

Since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, China and the US have been engaged in a wide spectrum of competition that has enhanced their rivalry. We have seen debates and arguments about China's one-party system versus the US democratic system, the China-US blame game, and the ideology-centered media war. How will the pandemic reshape China-US relations? Is cooperation still possible to address the unexpected global challenge posed by the virus? Global Times (GT) reporter Wang Wenwen talked to Graham Allison (Allison), professor at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard and author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides' Trap?, on these issues.




on

China After Coronavirus – Should We Ever Trust Beijing Again?

The coronavirus has exposed even deeper fault lines in the increasingly acrimonious U.S.-China relationship. The U.S. is now taking appropriate measures to mitigate the risk to our national security of relying on China for critical technology, precious metals and medical supplies.




on

No, the Coronavirus Will Not Change the Global Order

Joseph Nye advises skepticism toward claims that the pandemic changes everything. China won't benefit, and the United States will remain preeminent.




on

There's No Such Thing as Good Liberal Hegemony

Stephen Walt argues that as democracies falter, it's worth considering whether the United States made the right call in attempting to create a liberal world order.




on

COVID’s Broader Impacts: Risks and Recommendations

While the world’s health and economy are the clearest victims of COVID-19, the pandemic has impacted nearly every aspect of society – from national security to international relationships. We asked several of our experts to share their thoughts on risks and/or recommendations that policymakers and the public should consider in the coming weeks and months.




on

Next Moves on Climate Policy: A Conversation with Sue Biniaz

Sue Biniaz, former lead climate negotiator for the United States, shared her thoughts on the postponement of COP-26, and on the possible re-engagement of the U.S. in the international effort to address climate change in the newest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program,” a podcast produced by the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.




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The Dire Consequences of Trump's Suleimani Decision

Americans would be wise to brace for war with Iran, writes Susan Rice.

"Full-scale conflict is not a certainty, but the probability is higher than at any point in decades. Despite President Trump’s oft-professed desire to avoid war with Iran and withdraw from military entanglements in the Middle East, his decision to order the killing of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, Iran’s second most important official, as well as Iraqi leaders of an Iranian-backed militia, now locks our two countries in a dangerous escalatory cycle that will likely lead to wider warfare."




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2020–2021 International Security Program Research Fellowships: Apply Now

The International Security Program (ISP) is still accepting applications for 2020–2021.  ISP is a multidisciplinary research group that develops and trains new talent in security studies by hosting pre- and postdoctoral research fellows. 




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The battle of 'resistance' vs 'revolution' in the Middle East

The events surrounding the US assassination of Iranian Quds Force leader Major General Qassem Soleimani brought to the surface the two main ideological forces that now battle each other across the Middle East - the anti-imperial "resistance" of Iran and its Arab allies, and the freedom "revolution" of domestic protesters in the same lands. 




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Rami Khouri's interview on Aljazeera TV discussing the appointment of the new Lebanese government.

Rami Khouri's interview on Aljazeera TV discussing the appointment of the new Lebanese government amidst continuing protests and clashes with police.




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Lebanon has formed a controversial new government in a polarised, charged atmosphere, and protesters are not going to be easily pacified by its promises, explains Rami Khoury.

The fourth consecutive month of Lebanon's unprecedented political and economic crisis kicked off this week with three dramatic developments that will interplay in the coming months to define the country's direction for years to come: Escalating protests on the streets, heightened security measures by an increasingly militarising state, and now, a new cabinet of controversial so-called "independent technocrats" led by Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab.

Seeking to increase pressure on the political elite to act responsibly amid inaction vis-a-vis the slow collapse of the economy, the protesters had launched the fourth month of their protest movement, which had begun on 17 October last year, with a 'Week of Anger', stepping up their tactics and targeting banks and government institutions.




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Rami Khouri on Euronews TV discussing the Trump-Netanyahu Middle East initiative.

Rami Khouri's on Euronews TV discussing the Trump-Netanyahu Middle East initiative.




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Hong Kong, a Democratic Voice in China

Hong Kong is unique. While the writer Han Suyin’s description—“a borrowed place, on borrowed time” —seemed redundant upon the return of the territory to China on July 1, 1997, the former British colony appears to be perpetually exposed to uncertainty over its future. Despite long months of sociopolitical crisis and violence, Hong Kong has once again shown that it has lost none of its personality. Amidst the climate of upheaval and faced with a Chinese regime determined to obstruct any hopes of democracy, the people of Hong Kong have managed to attract international and media attention, marking them out from any other Chinese territory—including those that enjoy special status: Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Macao, and even Xinjiang, where nearly a million people from the minority Uyghur ethnic group are confined to “re-education” camps. No other Chinese region has been able to attract such attention.




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H-Diplo Review Essay 192 on Lawson. Anatomies of Revolution

Emily Whalen reviews Anatomies of Revolution by George Lawson (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2019).




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The Future of the Transatlantic Defense Relationship: Views from Finland and the EU

February 7, 2020: With the advent of the digital age and the rise of Russia and China as global powers, the EU must do more to defend itself and its relationship with the United States, according to Janne Kuusela, Director General Janne Kuusela. In an event moderated by  Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, Executive Director of the Future of Diplomacy Project and the Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship he explained why Finland could be a potential paradigm for the EU’s defense strategy. 

 




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Beyond Trade: The Confrontation Between the U.S. and China

Could China and the US be stumbling down the path Germany and the United Kingdom took at the beginning of the last century? The possibility will strike many readers as inconceivable. But we should remember that when we say something is “inconceivable,” this is a claim not about what is possible in the world, but rather about what our limited minds can imagine.

My answer to the question of whether we are sleepwalking toward war is “yes.” 




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What Allies Want: Reconsidering Loyalty, Reliability, and Alliance Interdependence

Is indiscriminate loyalty what allies want? The First Taiwan Strait Crisis (1954–55) case suggests that allies do not desire U.S. loyalty in all situations. Instead, they want the United States to be a reliable ally, posing no risk of abandonment or entrapment.




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There's No Such Thing as Good Liberal Hegemony

Stephen Walt argues that as democracies falter, it's worth considering whether the United States made the right call in attempting to create a liberal world order.




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Shining a Light on Cybersecurity Policy in the Middle East

Despite the growing profile of cyber hacks, leaks, and resulting diplomatic crises in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, conversations about policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) rarely address cybersecurity concerns. During the 2018-2019 academic year, a research collaboration between MEI and the Cyber Project at the Belfer Center looked to shift the dialogue.




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Bridging the Euphrates? How we Respond to the Idlib Crisis Could Ease or Aggravate Tensions Between Turkey and the SDF

Given that the Turkish-backed SNA has clearly stated their intention to launch another operation against the SDF, how will the US ensure that the ammunition provided to Turkey is not used against the SDF?




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Green Ambitions, Brown Realities: Making Sense of Renewable Investment Strategies in the Gulf

Gulf countries have hailed their investments in renewable energy, but some basic questions remain about the extent to which it makes sense for GCC states to invest aggressively in renewables. The sheer magnitude of such investments will require these countries to mobilize significant public resources.  Therefore, such an assessment requires these countries to focus on national interests, not just a desire to be perceived as constructive participants in the global transition away from carbon energy. 

This report starts by identifying four common strategic justifications for investing in renewable energy in GCC countries. Each of these rationales highlights a different aspect of renewable energy investments. In addition, each rationale is based on different assumptions about the underlying drivers of such investments, and each rationale is based on different assumptions about the future of energy. 
 




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The Coronavirus Is Iran’s Perfect Storm

The COVID-19 crisis has no silver lining, and the virus is unresponsive to the instruments of power that the Islamic Republic has amassed.




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Building Sustainable Relationships, Energy, and Security in the Middle East

While the Middle East Initiative is focused entirely on the MENA region, several other Center programs are also working on issues related to the Middle East, including Future of Diplomacy, Geopolitics of Energy, and the Managing the Atom.




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Building Solidarity: Challenges, Options, and Implications for COVID-19 Responses

In this white paper, authors Melani Cammett and Evan Lieberman try to shed light on what social solidarity is, how it might affect attitudinal and behavioral change; and given its desirable properties, what strategies impede and which facilitate the building of solidarity, particularly given the unique circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic.




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The Twin Crises and the Prospects for Political Sectarianism in Lebanon

LCPS solicited the opinion of key experts to answer one question: “Will the financial crisis, exacerbated further by COVID-19, strengthen or loosen the power of Lebanon’s governing political parties?” 




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Measuring National Power: Is Vladimir Putin’s Russia in Decline?

As Vladimir Putin embarks on another six-year term as Russia’s president, Western pundits and policymakers are left wondering whether his reelection means that Moscow’s muscular policies toward America and other Western powers will continue or even escalate. But what is the reality of Russian power in the Putin era? Is Russia a rising, declining or stagnating power? How does its standing in the global order compare to other nations, including the United States, China and European powers?




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Is Vladimir Putin’s Russia in Decline? We Figured Out How to Measure ‘National Power.’

Where does Russia stand as Vladimir Putin embarks on another six-year term as president? Analysts have been trying to figure out whether Russia has been rising, declining or stagnating since Putin ascended to power in 1999.