The movie-inspired packaging includes Fudge Stripes and Kinder Joy eggs.

The redesign emphasizes the company's commitment to organic, gluten-free ingredients and introduces new convenient sizes for single and family snacking.

The X5 is the world’s first fully-automated erected box system and the most advanced, flexible, efficient and sustainable platform available for the e-commerce industry.

The system is designed to provide fast, accurate, and efficient case packing for a wide range of products.

Prior to purchasing the pair of SOMIC case packing systems, Once Upon a Farm’s co-packers used manual labor to handle the products.

ALPLA, which in early October became majority shareholder of Paboco, is investing in ramping up manufacturing capacity.

Marketing campaign depicts a cast of funny and typical beach characters with whom consumers have likely interacted, and asks, “And you, what beach type are you?”

The new campaign forms part of the wider #LEVELUPWITH7UP platform that has been rolled out across various regions worldwide – solidifying 7UP as a versatile plus-one to any gathering.

New rackable pallet supports heavy loads, provides load stability and features unique design qualities to streamline operations.

New cobot palletizers can build pallets as high as 108 inches and handle packaging as heavy as 60 pounds.

A new study by Future Market Insights predicts the market to reach a valuation of $58.37 billion in 2021.

We’ve seen many innovations related to the service, production, packaging and distribution of food over the years. These changes all aim to protect public health and create a more efficient and sustainable food industry. The following are ways that one innovation, artificial intelligence (AI), is helping the food industry to achieve its goals.

The Cruz Cool cooler is made of a home-compostable polymer rather than Styrofoam, which takes over 500 years to decompose.

Created by PKG Brand Design, the new brand logo connects directly to the Bumble Bee company heritage.

Rotibag's innovative features include an integrated handle, making it ideal for hot grab-and-go items like rotisserie chicken and other prepared foods, while its fog-resistant packaging ensures product visibility.

The strategic investment includes recruitment, new processing and production equipment, refits to its sites in New Zealand and the creation of a dedicated corrugated studio at the company’s UK headquarters.

The X350 is designed with large ink tanks, each holding 2L of CMYK ink, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing the need for frequent refills.

The interdisciplinary expert jury of the German Design Council awarded IQJET in the category "Excellence in Business to Business: Machines & Engineering" with the Gold German Innovation Award.

This investment sets Catapult apart as the only printer in the US with this specification of Nilpeter press.

The Versatex Printbar leverages the architecture of two print banks, each equipped with six Xaar Nitrox printheads, to achieve up to three different laydown effects in a single pass and with one varnish.

Samuel Chapman Armstrong was the founder of Hampton Normal and Agricultural Institute (later Hampton University). Armstrong's father served as the kingdom of Hawaii's minister of education and emphasized student labor as a key part of schooling. The younger Armstrong enlisted in the Union army during the American Civil War (1861–1865) and commanded regiments in the United States Colored Troops. After the war he worked with the Freedmen's Bureau and began planning a school to train black teachers. Hampton Normal and Agricultural Institute opened in 1868 and emphasized labor alongside academics. The institution produced African American educators across the South, most notably Booker T. Washington. In 1878 Hampton's mission expanded with the admission of Native American students. The growth intensified Armstrong dependence on benefactors and in turn left it further exposed to the rising racism among American whites. In his later years academics at Hampton were publicly de-emphasized in favor of its trade-school programs. Armstrong died of a stroke in 1893.
Fri, 30 Oct 2020 14:14:55 EST

The Emerging Leaders' Guide to Thriving at Industry Events jhammond@desti… Tue, 11/05/2024 - 21:09

Justin had the news from the People's Bank of China here:

• PBOC governor will maintain yuan exchange rate at a reasonable, balanced level

PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized the Bank will not let the yuan plummet without a fight:

• Will step up countercyclical adjustment
• Should resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot

With the surging USD after Trump's win the yuan is just one of many weaker currencies:

• The pace of the moves depends on the data
• We are data dependent but not data point dependent
• Growth outlook has deteriorated due to manufacturing sector
• If disinflation stays on track, it would make a case for further rate cuts
• We could be leaving restrictive territory in the spring of 2025
• The last thing we need now is yet another trade war
• Tariffs impact will be medium-to-long term
• Protectionism by definition is inflationary

The remarks are as you would expect from the ECB at this current stage. But they are already starting to recognise the potential impact of Trump tariffs and that's a warning signal to the outlook for next year I guess.

• Euro area growth is projected to be sluggish
• Sees downside risks to growth
• Waiting on December projections for a better picture of where we stand

So far, he's not saying anything to jolt market pricing. And that's the other main consideration for any of their communications before making policy decisions. As such, a 25 bps rate cut in December remains the likeliest option at this stage. EUR/USD remains down 0.2% on the day at 1.0626 currently.

• It is just a question of how far and how fast
• Rate cut last week does not mean that the job is done
• Labour market data today show pay growth still at high levels
• There is still some work to be done on underlying domestic inflation pressures

All that being said, Pill argues that there has been "substantial" disinflation in the UK already. To summarise, it just means that they are not necessarily going to cut rates at every coming meeting. However, they are making it clear that they do have the option to do so if need be.

Fed's Waller is speaking but makes no comment on monetary or economic policy in his prepared remarks.

He does say:

• private sector best suited to innovate on payment systems
• Fed ready to support private innovation, mindful of financial stability.
• Government should have clear objective when providing financial services.
• There are times when government can address market inefficiencies
• Still does not see case for Fed digital dollar

Perhaps he will comment on monetary policy/the economy in a Q&A later.

Looking ahead at

• 10:15 AM ET, Richmond and President Barkin is speaking (he speaks at 5:30 PM ET as well).
• 2 PM, Minneapolis Fed Pres. Kashkari speaking and at
• 5 PM Philadelphia Fed Pres. Harker is scheduled to speak

Richmond Fed Pres. parking is speaking and says:

• Fed is in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy involves.
• US economy looks pretty good
• Labor market is resilient.
• From here, labor market mighty be fine or may continue to weaken.
• Inflation might be coming under control or might risk getting stuck above Fed 2% target.
• Feds focus may turn to upside inflation risks or to downside employment risks, depending on how economy develops.

The market is pricing a 65% chance of a 25 basis point cut in December. That is down over the last week or so (it was in the high 70%s last week).

US yields are higher but off their highest levels:

• 2-year 4.314%, +6.1 basis points
• 5-year 4.269%, +7.6 basis points
• 10-year 4.370%, +6.3 basis points
• 30 year 4.516%, +3.7 basis points

• One year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 3.0% last month. That is the lowest in four years
• Three-year inflation expectations 2.5% versus 2.7% last month
• Five-year inflation expectations 2.8% versus 2.9% last month

other details :

• Consumers in October saw lower likelihood of missing a minimum debt payment for the first time in five months
• Consumers in October saw lowest likelihood of a rising US unemployment rate over the next year since February 2022
• Consumers saw lower chance of losing current job and improved prospects for finding a new job if current job were lost
• Unemployment expectations decline to 34.5%, lowest since February 2022
• Probability of finding a job increase the highest level since October 2023

This is good news is inflation expectations help to keep a lid on actual inflation. Nevertheless yields remain near highs for the day.

• 2 year 4.321%, +6.7 basis points
• 5-year 4.281%, +8.9 basis points
• 10 year 4.390%, 8.2 basis points

US stocks are lower:

• Dow -0.38%
• S&P -0.33%
• NASDAQ -0.14%

Comments from the Minneapolis Fed President in conversation with Yahoo Finance.

• Contacts are optimistic
• We have to wait and see what the new government policies are, we will have to wait and see
• A one-time tariff increase in transitory but it can become tit-for-tat, right now we're all just guessing
• Immigration could have a big effect but we will have to see what will happen
• New lease inflation takes a couple years to work its way through
• We have good confidence that the housing piece of inflation will get to normal levels, though it may take a year or two
• The labor market has been surprisingly resilient, it's a good labor market
• The economy looks like it's in a strong position
• If we saw inflation surprise to the upside between now and December, that might give us pause
• Probably not enough time for jobs to surprise on the upside
• Productivity looks like it's been stronger, which could mean a higher neutral rate
• If so, we may not cut as much
• We all agree that we're above neutral now
• The rise in long-term yields doesn't look like it's about long-term inflation expectations
• I think we're modestly restrictive right now. I thought we were putting two feet on the brakes but in hindsight we were only putting one foot on the brake
• My judgement is that we still have a long ways to go in shrinking the balance sheet
• Ultimately the economy will guide us in terms of how far we need to cut rates

Kashkari is candid and is oftentimes dovish but he sounded less like someone who wants to keep on cutting. His comment about one foot on the brakes was helpful in illustrating how he sees the economy and rates. The interesting discussion is about neutral right now and how close the Fed wants to go. He also touched on a longer timeline to get inflation all the way back to 2% and that should keep the Fed in the high 3s assuming no sharp slowdown in the economy. Of course, the Fed curve is also pricing 3.80% as the terminal rate.

The New York Federal Reserve branch's Roberto Perli is manager of the Fed’s System Open Market Account (SOMA).

• Recent quarter-end money market volatility not historically large.
• Still strong evidence reserve levels remain abundant.
• No imminent signs of issues for Fed to implement monetary policy.
• Recent quarter-end pressure was contained.
• Slow rise in repo rates has been orderly.
• Standing repo facility stands ready to provide liquidity.
• Notes there’s been more friction in money markets lately.

---

The Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) is the central portfolio used by the Federal Reserve to conduct monetary policy. It holds the securities that the Fed buys and sells through open market operations, primarily U.S. Treasury securities, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities. SOMA is a key tool for influencing short-term interest rates and managing the money supply. By adjusting the size and composition of this portfolio, the Fed can influence liquidity, credit conditions, and the overall stance of monetary policy in the economy.

In addition to domestic assets, SOMA also holds foreign currency assets, allowing the Fed to participate in foreign exchange markets when necessary. The New York Federal Reserve Bank manages SOMA on behalf of the entire Federal Reserve System.

Deutsche Bank has revised its forecast for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) terminal rate, lowering its central-case projection from 2.25% to 1.50%. The bank now anticipates the ECB’s policy rate will dip slightly below the neutral rate by the end of 2025, rather than returning to neutral by mid-year as previously expected.

This shift in outlook is driven by several factors, including the potential for new tariffs from a Trump administration, which would likely impact trade, along with weaker macroeconomic performance in Europe and the increasing risk of inflation falling below target.

According to Deutsche Bank, the uncertainty surrounding these dynamics is considerable, especially given the unclear timing and effects of U.S. tariffs and potential European responses. Reflecting this uncertainty, the bank has outlined a broad target range of 1.00% to 1.75% for the ECB’s terminal rate.

Deutsche Bank notes that the terminal rate’s trajectory and ultimate level will depend on key influences such as:

1. European fiscal policy,
2. the economic health of Germany,
3. developments in China,
4. and fluctuations in oil prices.

The bank further suggests that the global economy may be entering a new phase, with Europe potentially experiencing increasingly divergent economic conditions compared to the U.S.

People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%.

How the process works:

• Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day's trading.
• The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.
• Intervention: If the yuan's value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency's value.

Earlier re China:

• Green shoots in China? Excavator sales grew 15% in October
• It's not a pretty picture in China

The People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.

• USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.
• CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.
• A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected is typically considered a signal from the PBOC.

Previous reference rate was 7.2355.

The setting at 7.1991, about 300-odd points lower than the modelled estimate is indicative of the PBoC pushing back against yuan weakness. AUD/USD has popped a little on the setting of a stronger than expected yuan.

PBOC injects 233bn yuan via 7-day RR, sets rate at 1.5%

• 17bn yuan mature today
• net injection is 216bn yuan

/*/*

Justin had the news from the People's Bank of China here on Monday:

• PBOC governor will maintain yuan exchange rate at a reasonable, balanced level

The PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized that the Bank will not let the yuan plummet without a fight:

• Will step up countercyclical adjustment
• Should resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot

Today is an example of the Bank pushing back on yuan weakness, with the reference rate set 300+ points stronger for the CNY than was expected (in the Reuters model).

Offshore yuan has jumped (lower USD/CNH as shown in the chart below):

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. The size of the expiries is noteworthy but it might not feature too much into play as the dollar is keeping firmer this week. Besides that, there is the 100-hour moving average at 1.0834 keeping a ceiling on price action for now. As such, that could limit the influence and impact of the expiries. But if we do see it come into play, expect that to be a spot in anchoring any upside extensions.

There will be more expiries towards the downside under 1.0800 in the day ahead, so there's that to consider as well.

Besides that, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6670 level. It isn't one that ties to any technical significance again, but it could just keep price action a little stickier with little else to work with in the session ahead. Near-term upside for the pair is more limited by the 100-hour moving average at 0.6689 currently.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0775 and 1.0850 levels. The expiries are sandwiching the spot price at the moment with price action this week largely contained in between 1.0780 through to 1.0825. As such, the expiries will add to those defensive layers on either side.

That being said, the euro side of the equation will come into focus with plenty of CPI and GDP data in the day(s) ahead. So, just be wary of that.

In terms of technicals, the pair is consolidating somewhat after testing the August low of 1.0777. Buyers are holding on somewhat with the near-term chart also reflecting that, with price action now just above its 100 and 200-hour moving averages of 1.0809-15. But I would argue getting above the Friday high of 1.0839 will do more to convince of a potential turnaround for buyers. So, keep that in mind as well.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level and that is likely to limit price action until we get to the euro area inflation data later. The numbers there offers a risk to the single currency, but there is also still a ceiling from the 200-day moving average at 1.0868. That will be a key technical level to watch in the day ahead.

Then, there is one for USD/CHF at the 0.8650 level. With price action holding below the 100-day moving average of 0.8677 in the past few days, the expiries here could keep things more locked in until traders feel comfortable to chase the next key technical push in the pair. Just be wary that there is another large set of expiries at the same level for tomorrow too.

And lastly, there is one for EUR/GBP at the 0.8350 level. It isn't one that holds much technical significance but could offer a bit of a floor to price action after the rise yesterday, in which the pound was dragged down amid the UK budget while the euro perked up on CPI and GDP data.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

The election is going to dominate early November trading so making moves based on seasonals is unwise. That said, it's useful to keep them in mind as the dust settles.

• November is the best month for USD/JPY
• Best month for the Nasdaq
• Third-best month for the US dollar
• The November through February is strong for gold
• Second-best month for the S&P 500
• Second-best month for the MSCI world index
• Second-best month for the German DAX
• Best month for the Nikkei 225
• The final month of the seasonal slump for oil. Seasonals neutral in Dec-Jan then strongly positve from Feb-June

Going into last November, the S&P 500 had declined for three straight months but that month marked a turning point as it recouped nearly all the gains in what was the beginning of a five-month rally. This time, we're coming into the month with better momentum, though October was negative for stocks.

The price of crude oil is trading down $-2.20 or -3.12% at $68.20. That's the lowest level since October 30.

The price reached a peak on Thursday at $72.84. That the price briefly above its 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high at $72.59. However on Friday, the price fell below its 100-hour moving average near $71.50 and in trading today, fell and stayed below its 200-hour moving average at $70.52. It would take a move back above the 200-hour moving average to hurt the bearish bias.

On the downside, the price is approaching a swing low going back to October 18 at $68.13. Move below that level and traders will start to look toward a rising trendline near $68.10. The low price from October 29 comes near $66.69.

Meanwhile, gasoline prices in the US are down -11.36% on the year at $3.19 (average price for all grades of gasoline). Prior to Covid, the price was around $2.78. The low at the depth of Covid reached $1.87. The current level is near the lows from the end of 2023 and start of 2024 near $3.17.

Retail Gasoline prices for all grades of gasoline

Last week, the preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 73.0. With gas prices continuing to move lower and the Trump victory, what will that do to sentiment? The high for the Biden administration reached 86.5 with the low at 50.2 in June 2022. That corresponded with the high in gasoline prices.

The USDCAD has backed backs off from ceiling area again. That area comes between 1.3945 and 1.3958.

The subsequent move to the downside has the pair heading toward 200 and 100-hour MA support targets at 1.39054 and 1.3898 respectively (green and blue lines on the chart below). A move below that level would target the rising 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.38784. Last week the price fell below that moving average line on two separate occasions only to fail and bounce back to the upside.

If the price were to get above the ceiling area, the 2022 high price comes in at 1.3977. Get above that and the price is trading at the highest level since 2020.

USDCAD Summary

The USDCAD is trending upward, approaching a key swing area between 1.3945-1.39581.

Key Levels:

Resistance

• 1.3945 to 1.3958. Swing highs over the last 7 trading days (from swing highs from Oct 31, Nov 1, 6, and 7.

• 1.3977 (2022 high)

Support

• 1.3905 - 200-hour MA)

• 1.3898 Rising 100-hour MA

Outlook:

• Break above 1.3977 targets highest level since 2020.

• Move below 1.3905 and rising 100-hour MA favors sellers.

• Otherwise, buyers maintain control, pushing for new highs.

The USDJPY is extending to a new session high after testing is 61.8% retracement earlier in the day at 153.397 and finding willing buyers.

The market to the upside has now taken the price to a high of 154.75. That has extended above the high price from last week at 154.704. The buyers are making a play.

The swing high going back to July 30 came in at 155.21, and that becomes the next key target on the topside for the pair.

BofA suggests staying short on CHF, particularly against USD and GBP, as post-election volatility subsides and G10 rate repricing supports a weaker CHF. While political risks may pose a minor obstacle, BofA sees CHF depreciation as likely due to policy divergence, with recent fiscal stimulus in the UK reinforcing the case for long GBP/CHF.

Key Points:

• CHF Weakness Expected: Following the US election, BofA expects normalization in volatility and G10 rate adjustments, which support a weaker CHF heading into year-end.

• Policy Divergence and SNB Cuts: CHF depreciation has been driven by Swiss policy moves, including an SNB rate cut, and ongoing yield compression. Increased Swiss inflation has also pressured CHF.

• Positioning in USD/CHF and GBP/CHF: BofA favors short CHF positions in USD/CHF and recently opened a long GBP/CHF position via a three-month ratio call spread, driven by UK fiscal stimulus enhancing policy divergence.

• Risk Management Considerations: While CHF shorts are promising, BofA advises a cautious approach due to potential political uncertainties that could affect CHF.

Conclusion:

BofA recommends holding short CHF positions in USD/CHF and GBP/CHF, as volatility recedes and policy divergence favors a weaker CHF. Though political noise may cause short-term volatility, BofA sees CHF depreciation persisting into year-end, with UK fiscal moves strengthening the case for GBP/CHF.

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here.

The Chinese market and related global-growth proxies got excited about potential fiscal stimulus in October. After a flurry of buying, there has been some consolidation as we waited for the details.

Those details came on Friday and just before that, the market tried to break higher in a front-run of potentially larger stimulus. Beijing didn't deliver and the market was slow to digest that at first.

Today though, it looks like disappointment is setting in as the MCHI ETF falls into the October gap. The threat of tariffs combined with lackluster domestic growth make for a bad combination. Given how late the market was to pile into this theme, there are going to be many people underwater very quickly.

The US CPI will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET. What is expected?

• October Headline CPI expected to rise by 0.2% MoM, which is the same as last month. The forecasted range is 0.1 to 0.3%.
• YoY Headline CPI expected to increase to 2.6%, up from 2.4%, with a forecast range of 2.3 to 2.6%. A change of 0.0% will fall out of the YoY calculation this month.
• Core CPI projected to rise 0.3% MoM and 3.3% YoY, matching the previous month. The forecast range is 0.2 to 0.3% MoM and 3.2 to 3.4% Y/Y. A year ago, a gain of 0.2% falls out of the calculation.

The US PPI will be released on Thursday with the expectations of 0.2% for the MoM headline and 0.3% for the core measure.

Fed's Barkin this morning on inflation kept it simple saying::

• Inflation might be coming under control or might risk getting stuck above Fed 2% target.

Kashkari had more to say about inflation today with different influences. He said.

• Uncertainty exists around the impact of new government policies on inflation.
• A one-time tariff increase is transitory but could become a sustained issue if it escalates, introducing inflation risks.
• Immigration policy changes could have a significant effect on inflation, but the outcome is uncertain.
• Inflation from new leases will take a couple of years to work through the system.
• Housing inflation is expected to return to normal levels, but it may take a year or two.
• If inflation surprises to the upside before December, it may affect policy decisions.
• Current long-term yield increases don’t seem to reflect heightened inflation expectations.
• Higher productivity could suggest a higher neutral rate, potentially influencing future rate cuts.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

There were numerous Fed speakers on Tuesday, US time:

• Fed's Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I'm optimistic that will continue
• Fed's Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolves
• Fed's Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook

and we get one more today in Asia:

• 2200 GMT / 1700 US Eastern time - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speaks on "Fintech, AI and the Changing Financial Landscape".

Which doesn't sound too promising for remarks from him on the economy or monetary policy. But, perhaps we'll get a mortsel thrown to us in any Q&A.

***

As for the data agenda, it's a bit of a yawn, none of it likely to move around major FX upon release.

From Japan we'll get an update of wholesale inflation - the PPI for October. The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI)

• its a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output
• is calculated by the Bank of Japan

Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the price change that consumers see for a basket of goods and services, the CGPI focuses on the change in the prices of goods sold by companies.

The PPI reflects some of cost pressures faced by producers

• its based on a basket of goods that represents the range of products produced within the Japanese economy, including items such as:
  • raw materials like metals and chemicals
  • semi-finished goods
  • and finished products
  • different weights are assigned to each category within the index based on its contribution to the overall economy.
• it does not account for the quality improvements in goods and services over time, which might lead to overestimation of inflation
  • additionally, it reflects only the prices of domestically produced goods, leaving out the impact of imported goods

The PPI can be used as a guide to inflationary pressures in the economy:

• If producers are facing higher costs, they may pass these on to consumers, leading to higher consumer prices.

***

From Australia we'll get wages data for Q3. Wage growth is expected to keep slowing (y/y) in Q3 2024. With the labor market softening, upward pressure on wages has been easing over recent quarters.

In Commonwealth Bank of Australia's preview they cite their internal data as indicating a quarterly wage growth of around 0.9%, a notable decrease from the 1.3% growth seen in the same quarter last year, which had been boosted by a significant 5.75% increase in award and minimum wages. As a result, the annual wage growth rate is projected to fall to 3.6%, bringing it closer to a level compatible with sustainable, in-target inflation.

While the labour market softening, but from strong levels, the RBA is eyeing wage growth as a factor helping keep inflation sticky. A moderation in growth for wages will be welcomed by the bank if it translates into softening price pressure also.

• This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
• I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.

Barclays has issued a note suggesting that the re-election of Trump is unlikely to significantly impact oil market fundamentals in the near term.

The bank believes that current market dynamics are relatively stable and does not foresee major shifts tied to potential changes in U.S. leadership.

Barclays is recommending a long position on December 2025 Brent call spreads. The bank notes that volatility has recently decreased, and it perceives market sentiment as overly focused on downside risks, or the "left tail." In contrast, Barclays believes the risks are more balanced, especially in light of recent improvements in oil market fundamentals and the possibility of a more confrontational geopolitical landscape.

Japanese wholesale prices, the PPI or CGPI:

+0.2% m/m

• expected 0.0%, prior 0.0%

+3.4% y/y

• expected +3.0%, prior +2.8%

The higher results will be a bit of a tailwind for the yen, at the margin. Not too much though, there is the huge monetary policy divergence that is weighing on the hapless yen to contend with.

Of note is that renewed yen falls pushed up import costs for some goods

The Bank of Japan is wary of yen weakness pushing up prices, the Bank wants inflation but not like that. The Bank wants inflation coming from wage growth pushing up demand. The Bank has said it'll consider raising rates to help slow or stop the yen decline. But political pressure is on the Bank not to hike until wages are seen rising at the next round of wage negotiations in (Japan's) spring.

---

The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI)

• its a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output
• is calculated by the Bank of Japan

Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the price change that consumers see for a basket of goods and services, the CGPI focuses on the change in the prices of goods sold by companies.

The PPI reflects some of cost pressures faced by producers

• its based on a basket of goods that represents the range of products produced within the Japanese economy, including items such as:
  • raw materials like metals and chemicals
  • semi-finished goods
  • and finished products
  • different weights are assigned to each category within the index based on its contribution to the overall economy.
• it does not account for the quality improvements in goods and services over time, which might lead to overestimation of inflation
  • additionally, it reflects only the prices of domestically produced goods, leaving out the impact of imported goods

The PPI can be used as a guide to inflationary pressures in the economy:

• If producers are facing higher costs, they may pass these on to consumers, leading to higher consumer prices.

Australia data - Wage Price Index for Q3 2024:

+0.8% q/q for the third consecutive quarter

• expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%
• Both the private sector and the public sector rose 0.8%, seasonally adjusted, for the quarter.

+3.5% y/y, lowest annual rise for the series since December quarter 2022 and followed four consecutive quarters of annual wage growth equal to or above 4%.

• expected +3.6%, prior +4.1%

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes the Wage Price Index (WPI) quarterly, measuring changes in the price of labor, unaffected by shifts in workforce composition, hours worked, or employee characteristics.

The ABS provides detailed WPI data, including breakdowns by industry and sector, offering insights into wage trends across Australia's economy.