Torus Group, known for its strong portfolio in measurement for metal and rigid packaging in the food and beverage industries, has recently expanded into plastic packaging and medical devices.

Investment includes the acquisition of an AV Flexologic Corrugated Flat Mounting Machine and the integration of Reproflex3's high-definition Vortex™ screening technology.

New Mid-Web flexo press without solvents for flexible packaging is suitable for indirect food contact, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, shrink sleeve and in-mold labels, and can also be configured for folding cartons and paperboard.

In this insightful article, Beth Zipko of Source Wurx makes the case that no element of private label products has improved more rapidly and dramatically than packaging, which has evolved from eyeroll-inducing to eye-catching. 

Thanks to the patented nozzle seal technology in LEIBINGER printers, clogs are now a thing of the past, ensuring smooth, uninterrupted production and maximum efficiency.

Company will highlight its complete portfolio of sustainable solutions for the packaging and narrow web, tag and label markets.

Owned and operated by seasoned industry experts, APC boasts one of the largest teams of knowledgeable employees and support technicians of any graphics equipment distributor in the Northeast, Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and Midwest.

From Campus to Career: The Critical Importance of Experiential Learning in Workforce Preparation jhammond@desti… Tue, 09/24/2024 - 16:52

In the summer months, scheduling music lessons flexibly is possible. How do you want to schedule your summer music lessons?

What do you charge for your teaching? If you want to take a fresh look at your tuition model, join us on Wednesday for an online discussion about this most important subject.

Recently, we asked, "What's one thing you wish you knew before starting your own private music studio?" Here are some of the comments we received.

We know from talking to hundreds of music teachers over the years that students' practicing habits are always a point of discussion. We've seen parents fall into a whole range of attitudes. Here are a few that we've seen.

Justin had the news from the People's Bank of China here:

• PBOC governor will maintain yuan exchange rate at a reasonable, balanced level

PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized the Bank will not let the yuan plummet without a fight:

• Will step up countercyclical adjustment
• Should resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot

With the surging USD after Trump's win the yuan is just one of many weaker currencies:

• The pace of the moves depends on the data
• We are data dependent but not data point dependent
• Growth outlook has deteriorated due to manufacturing sector
• If disinflation stays on track, it would make a case for further rate cuts
• We could be leaving restrictive territory in the spring of 2025
• The last thing we need now is yet another trade war
• Tariffs impact will be medium-to-long term
• Protectionism by definition is inflationary

The remarks are as you would expect from the ECB at this current stage. But they are already starting to recognise the potential impact of Trump tariffs and that's a warning signal to the outlook for next year I guess.

Fed's Waller is speaking but makes no comment on monetary or economic policy in his prepared remarks.

He does say:

• private sector best suited to innovate on payment systems
• Fed ready to support private innovation, mindful of financial stability.
• Government should have clear objective when providing financial services.
• There are times when government can address market inefficiencies
• Still does not see case for Fed digital dollar

Perhaps he will comment on monetary policy/the economy in a Q&A later.

Looking ahead at

• 10:15 AM ET, Richmond and President Barkin is speaking (he speaks at 5:30 PM ET as well).
• 2 PM, Minneapolis Fed Pres. Kashkari speaking and at
• 5 PM Philadelphia Fed Pres. Harker is scheduled to speak

Comments from the Minneapolis Fed President in conversation with Yahoo Finance.

• Contacts are optimistic
• We have to wait and see what the new government policies are, we will have to wait and see
• A one-time tariff increase in transitory but it can become tit-for-tat, right now we're all just guessing
• Immigration could have a big effect but we will have to see what will happen
• New lease inflation takes a couple years to work its way through
• We have good confidence that the housing piece of inflation will get to normal levels, though it may take a year or two
• The labor market has been surprisingly resilient, it's a good labor market
• The economy looks like it's in a strong position
• If we saw inflation surprise to the upside between now and December, that might give us pause
• Probably not enough time for jobs to surprise on the upside
• Productivity looks like it's been stronger, which could mean a higher neutral rate
• If so, we may not cut as much
• We all agree that we're above neutral now
• The rise in long-term yields doesn't look like it's about long-term inflation expectations
• I think we're modestly restrictive right now. I thought we were putting two feet on the brakes but in hindsight we were only putting one foot on the brake
• My judgement is that we still have a long ways to go in shrinking the balance sheet
• Ultimately the economy will guide us in terms of how far we need to cut rates

Kashkari is candid and is oftentimes dovish but he sounded less like someone who wants to keep on cutting. His comment about one foot on the brakes was helpful in illustrating how he sees the economy and rates. The interesting discussion is about neutral right now and how close the Fed wants to go. He also touched on a longer timeline to get inflation all the way back to 2% and that should keep the Fed in the high 3s assuming no sharp slowdown in the economy. Of course, the Fed curve is also pricing 3.80% as the terminal rate.

The New York Federal Reserve branch's Roberto Perli is manager of the Fed’s System Open Market Account (SOMA).

• Recent quarter-end money market volatility not historically large.
• Still strong evidence reserve levels remain abundant.
• No imminent signs of issues for Fed to implement monetary policy.
• Recent quarter-end pressure was contained.
• Slow rise in repo rates has been orderly.
• Standing repo facility stands ready to provide liquidity.
• Notes there’s been more friction in money markets lately.

---

The Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) is the central portfolio used by the Federal Reserve to conduct monetary policy. It holds the securities that the Fed buys and sells through open market operations, primarily U.S. Treasury securities, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities. SOMA is a key tool for influencing short-term interest rates and managing the money supply. By adjusting the size and composition of this portfolio, the Fed can influence liquidity, credit conditions, and the overall stance of monetary policy in the economy.

In addition to domestic assets, SOMA also holds foreign currency assets, allowing the Fed to participate in foreign exchange markets when necessary. The New York Federal Reserve Bank manages SOMA on behalf of the entire Federal Reserve System.

The election is going to dominate early November trading so making moves based on seasonals is unwise. That said, it's useful to keep them in mind as the dust settles.

• November is the best month for USD/JPY
• Best month for the Nasdaq
• Third-best month for the US dollar
• The November through February is strong for gold
• Second-best month for the S&P 500
• Second-best month for the MSCI world index
• Second-best month for the German DAX
• Best month for the Nikkei 225
• The final month of the seasonal slump for oil. Seasonals neutral in Dec-Jan then strongly positve from Feb-June

Going into last November, the S&P 500 had declined for three straight months but that month marked a turning point as it recouped nearly all the gains in what was the beginning of a five-month rally. This time, we're coming into the month with better momentum, though October was negative for stocks.

The USD is higher in trading today as the Trump trade continues. HIgher USD. Higher stocks. Bonds we don't know as the bond market is closed for Veterans Day today. Gold is lower but bitcoin in higher.

In this video, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective.

EURUSD: The EURUSD fell below the swing lows from June between 1.0665 to 1.06705. That is below the low from last week at 1.06819. Staying below that area keeps the sellers in control. Absent a move above those levels and the buyers are not winning. ON the downside, the next support comes in at 2024 lows between 1.0600 to 1.06097.

USDJPY: The USDJPY has bounced higher and pushed to the 153.88 level. That level has helped to slow the run higher today. Recall from last week, the price did move above that level and ran to a high of 154.70 on the dollar buying after the Election before the corrective move lower (the price bottomed at the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart). So the pair is at a key technical level between support at the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart, and the high from last week at 154.70.

GBPUSD:The GBPUSD has seen more up-and-down momentum over the last few weeks of trading. It is trading near the low of that up and down range with 1.2832 to 1.2872 the swing area to get to and through to increase the bearish bias. On the topside gettting back above the low from 3 weeks ago comes in at 1.29065. That would need to be broken to give the buyers more confidence.

Fundamental Overview

The puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might also be seeing some pre-positioning into a potentially hot US CPI report tomorrow.

At the latest Fed’s decision, Fed Chair Powell said that they expect bumps on inflation and that one or two bad data months on inflation won’t change the process. This keeps the 25 bps cut in December in place even if we get higher inflation readings.

The market though is forward-looking, and the rise in Treasury yields showed that the market sees risks to the inflation outlook. Moreover, the red sweep could increase those fears if the progress on inflation stalls, or worse, reverses.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY continues to consolidate above the key 152.00 support zone maintaining a bullish bias. If we were to get another pullback into the support, we can expect the buyers to step in once again to position for a rally into the 160.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 148.00 handle next.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. The price recently bounced near the trendline and we can expect the buyers to keep leaning on it, while the sellers will look for a break lower to gain more conviction for a bigger correction to the downside.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor support zone around the 153.40 level. This is where the buyers are stepping in with a defined risk below the zone to position for the continuation of the uptrend. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to target a pullback into the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

This week is a bit empty on the data front with the most important releases scheduled for the latter part of the week. Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

See the video below

Fundamental Overview

Bitcoin is now up almost 30% since the election day as the bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency exploded following Trump’s victory. This shouldn’t be surprising given that Trump vowed to make the US the crypto capital of the planet.

Moreover, it looks like the US economy continues not only to do well but also re-accelerating amid the Fed’s easing and the expectations of expansionary fiscal policies like tax cuts and deregulation.

Bitcoin, alongside Dogecoin and stocks like Tesla and Coinbase, have been the top beneficiaries of Trump’s victory given their direct connection to Trump. For now, there’s no real top in sight as we would likely need a contractionary monetary policy or a notable slowdown in the economy.

The risk going forward is the Fed. If the central bank starts to mention the need of more tightening, then we could see some big corrections in all risk assets. That day though looks to be at least a couple of months away for now.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin is now trading near the 90K level. The 100K level is the natural target, something that has been talked about a lot. That doesn’t mean it cannot go any higher than that though. For now, it’s a momentum play and despite the obvious nervousness one can get seeing the euphoria in the air, there’s no negative catalyst in sight that could reverse the trend.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. That’s now far away from the current price and it’s unlikely that we will see a pullback into it in the near term unless we get a very hot US CPI report tomorrow.

If we do get there though, the buyers will likely lean on it to position for a rally into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the next major trendline around the 75K level.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have another minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to position for further upside, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the next trendline.

More aggressive buyers, might pile in already on the break of the recent high around the 90K level targeting the 100K level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

This week is a bit empty on the data front with the most important releases scheduled for the latter part of the week. Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

Fundamental Overview

TSLA is now up more than 40% since the election day as the bullish momentum in the stock exploded following Trump’s victory. This shouldn’t be surprising given that Elon Musk bet big on Trump and the market is now rewarding it.

It looks like the US economy continues not only to do well but also re-accelerating amid the Fed’s easing and the expectations of expansionary fiscal policies like tax cuts and deregulation. Moreover, the manufacturing cycle might be in the early innings of a growth phase, so those are all positive macro factors for the stock.

Tesla, like Coinbase, Bitcoin and Dogecoin, have been the top beneficiaries of Trump’s victory given their direct connection to Trump. For now, there’s no real top in sight as we would likely need a contractionary monetary policy or a notable slowdown in the economy.

The risk going forward is the Fed. If the central bank starts to mention the need of more tightening, then we could see some big corrections in all risk assets. That day though looks to be at least a couple of months away for now.

TSLA Stock Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that TSLA broke above the resistance zone around the 270.00 level and exploded higher as Trump’s victory became clear. The stock is now trading around the 359.00 level in pre-market. The target should be the all-time high around the 414.50 level but that doesn’t mean it cannot break through and reach new highs.

TSLA Stock Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. That’s now far away from the current price and it’s unlikely that we will see a pullback into it in the near term unless we get a very hot US CPI report tomorrow.

If we do get there though, the buyers will likely lean on it to position for a rally into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower and below the previous resistance now turned support to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

TSLA Stock Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have another minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely keep on bidding the stock up with a defined risk below the trendline, while the sellers will look for a break lower to start targeting a pullback into the next trendline.

Upcoming Catalysts

This week is a bit empty on the data front with the most important releases scheduled for the latter part of the week. Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

Fundamental Overview

The puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might also be seeing some pre-positioning into a potentially hot US CPI report tomorrow.

At the latest Fed’s decision, Fed Chair Powell said that they expect bumps on inflation and that one or two bad data months on inflation won’t change the process. This keeps the 25 bps cut in December in place even if we get higher inflation readings.

The market though is forward-looking, and the rise in Treasury yields showed that the market sees risks to the inflation outlook. Moreover, the red sweep could increase those fears if the progress on inflation stalls, or worse, reverses.

On the GBP side, this morning we got the UK labour market report and although the data was mostly mixed, it leant more on the dovish side. Overall though, it didn’t change anything for the market or the BoE.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD broke through the support zone around the 1.2840 level and extended the drop as more sellers piled in. The natural target should be the swing low at 1.2665 level. That’s where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally back into the 1.28 handle.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the break of the support which was defining the range between the 1.2840 support and the 1.3040 resistance. If the price retests the support now turned resistance, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop into the 1.2665 level next. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to position for a rally back into the 1.3040 resistance.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. The sellers will likely keep on leaning on it to position for new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

This week is a bit empty on the data front with the most important releases scheduled for the latter part of the week. Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

As the North American session begins, the bond traders return after a day off in observance of Veterans Day. Yields are higher to start their trading week with the 2 year up 6.5 basis points at 4.319% and the 10 year up 6.3 basis points at 4.371%. The 2 year yield has moved to a new high going back to July 31 today (4.336%). For the 10 year, it traded as high as 4.773% last week, but fell into Friday with the low reaching 4.558% before bouncing modestly on Friday. That upside has reached 4.64% today - off the low but below the high from last week.

Bitcoin moved to a high of $89,983 today - a new record - but has come off and trades at $86,430 currently. The low reached $85208 today in volatile trading.

Oil is higher after falling over 3% lower yesterday. The price is up 43% or 0.64% at $68.52 currently. The high reached $68.76 and a low at $67.78.

Gold is down another $11 or -.045% at $2607.28. The low reached $2589.80 before bouncing.

In the US stock market, the major indices are marginally higher after record closes across the three major indices. The Russell 2000 which has not reached a high since July 2021 got within shouting distance of it record at 2437.08. The high yesterday reached 2441.72. The Dow futures are imploring a gain of 78 points. The S&P is up 1.65 points and the Nasdaq index is now up 7.91 points.

There will be several Fed speakers today with Governor Waller, Minneapolis Fed Pres. Kashkari, Philadelphia Fed Pres. Parker, and Richmond Fed Pres. Barkin all scheduled to speak

ECB policymaker Olli Rehn emphasized that while the direction of the ECB’s monetary policy is clear, the pace of any changes will be data-dependent. The economic outlook, impacted by a struggling manufacturing sector, has deteriorated. Rehn suggested that if disinflation continues, it could support additional rate cuts, with the ECB potentially moving away from restrictive policy territory by spring 2025. He warned against protectionism, noting that tariffs would have a medium-to-long-term impact and are inherently inflationary. With growth in the euro area expected to remain sluggish and downside risks prevalent, Rehn awaits the December projections for a clearer assessment of the economic landscape.

EURUSD: The selling in the EURUSD continue as a less friendly US with Pres. Elect Trump, spell slower growth with increased tariffs the concern. Technically, the price initially moved higher in the Asian session but found willing sellers near the low of the swing area between 1.0663 and 1.06703. That was swing lows in June 2024. Staying below kept the sellers in control, and they pushed lower. The price has since moved down to a low of 1.0606 which tests the lows from April when a series of swing lows bottomed the pair. Those levels are also the lows for the year (going back to October 2023).

USDJPY: The USDJPY rose yesterday and then stalled in the US session between 153.59 to 153.88 (swing area). Recall, the 153.88 level was a swing high from July 31. The highs from October 28 and October 29 was at 153.88 too. Today, the price moved lower and below the swing area low, BUT found support at the 61.8% of the move down from the July high. That level comes in at 153.397. Going forward, that hold increases that technical levels importance as support. Move below would increase the bearish bias in the short term at least.

On the topside, the price has now moved back above the 153.88 level (bullish). If the price can stay above that level now, that would be the most bullish technical scenario as buyers show their strength on the break. On the topside, the 154.54 up to 155.09 would be the next target area to stretch towards. Get above that area over time, and it adds to the bullish bias. Buyers making a play. Can they keep the momentum going?

GBPUSD:The GBPUSD fell below the lows from the last 2 weeks (last week low was at 1.28329) and sellers jumped, pushing the price through the 200 day MA at 1.28178. The breaks are more bearish and the low price reached 1.27915 and has bounced. The price has traded above and below the 200-day MA at 1.28179, but has so far stayed below the low from last week at 1.28329. If the price moves back above that level and momentum back to the upside is able to get above 1.2844 and the 50% of the move up from the April low at 1.2866, the buyers are showing some strength and the sellers will start worrying about the failures more and more. Conversely, if the price can stay below the 1.2832 and 1.2844 that keeps the sellers confidence high, but gettng below the 200-day MA is still required again. The price is currently trading near the 200-day MA but remains below 1.28329.

USDCHF: The USDCHF extended above the 200 day MA at 0.88176 and also a swing area from 0.88187 to 0.8825. That was a bullish move and the price moved to a high of 0.88303 but failed. The price is back below the 200 day MA and swing area. The price is trading near 0.8800 (0.8802 is the low). ON the downside the 50% is at 0.87986. If that is broken, then the swing area, the 200 day MA and the 50% failed. That should give buyers cause for pause as the buyers had their shot, and they missed. But the price still needs to get below 50%.

In the kickstart video, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs:

EUR/USD Summary

The EUR/USD continued its downward trend due to concerns over slower economic growth and increased tariffs under President-elect Trump.

Key Points:

• Initially rose in the Asian session, but sellers took control near 1.0665-1.06703 swing area. That area was the lows from back in June.

• Staying below the lows from June kept the sellers in control

• Reached a low of 1.0606, testing April's swing lows and the year's lows (since October 2023). A move below the 1.0600 increases the bearish bias.

• Buyers may lean against the low as risk can be defined and limited against the level with stops on a break below.

-------------------------------------------

USD/JPY Summary

The USD/JPY exhibited volatility, with potential bullish signals.

Key Points:

1. Rose yesterday, then stalled between 153.59-153.88 (swing area).

2. Found support at 153.397 (61.8% of July's move down).

3. Broke above 153.88 (bullish signal).

4. Next targets: 154.54-155.09.

Outlook:

Bullish Scenario

Stay above 153.88, targeting 154.54-155.09.

Bearish Scenario

Move below 153.397 increases short-term bearish bias.

--------------------------------------------------

GBP/USD Summary

The GBP/USD fell, breaking below two-week lows and the 200-day MA.

Key Points:

1. Broke below last week's low (1.28329) and 200-day MA (1.28178).

2. Reached 1.27915, then bounced.

3. Traded above and below 200-day MA.

Outlook:

Bullish Scenario

Move above 1.28329, 1.2844, and 1.2866 (50% of April's move) indicates buyer strength.

Bearish Scenario

Stay below 1.28329 and 1.2844 maintains seller confidence; breaking below 200-day MA again confirms bearish trend.

The Chinese market and related global-growth proxies got excited about potential fiscal stimulus in October. After a flurry of buying, there has been some consolidation as we waited for the details.

Those details came on Friday and just before that, the market tried to break higher in a front-run of potentially larger stimulus. Beijing didn't deliver and the market was slow to digest that at first.

Today though, it looks like disappointment is setting in as the MCHI ETF falls into the October gap. The threat of tariffs combined with lackluster domestic growth make for a bad combination. Given how late the market was to pile into this theme, there are going to be many people underwater very quickly.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

There were numerous Fed speakers on Tuesday, US time:

• Fed's Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I'm optimistic that will continue
• Fed's Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolves
• Fed's Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook

and we get one more today in Asia:

• 2200 GMT / 1700 US Eastern time - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speaks on "Fintech, AI and the Changing Financial Landscape".

Which doesn't sound too promising for remarks from him on the economy or monetary policy. But, perhaps we'll get a mortsel thrown to us in any Q&A.

***

As for the data agenda, it's a bit of a yawn, none of it likely to move around major FX upon release.

From Japan we'll get an update of wholesale inflation - the PPI for October. The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI)

• its a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output
• is calculated by the Bank of Japan

Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the price change that consumers see for a basket of goods and services, the CGPI focuses on the change in the prices of goods sold by companies.

The PPI reflects some of cost pressures faced by producers

• its based on a basket of goods that represents the range of products produced within the Japanese economy, including items such as:
  • raw materials like metals and chemicals
  • semi-finished goods
  • and finished products
  • different weights are assigned to each category within the index based on its contribution to the overall economy.
• it does not account for the quality improvements in goods and services over time, which might lead to overestimation of inflation
  • additionally, it reflects only the prices of domestically produced goods, leaving out the impact of imported goods

The PPI can be used as a guide to inflationary pressures in the economy:

• If producers are facing higher costs, they may pass these on to consumers, leading to higher consumer prices.

***

From Australia we'll get wages data for Q3. Wage growth is expected to keep slowing (y/y) in Q3 2024. With the labor market softening, upward pressure on wages has been easing over recent quarters.

In Commonwealth Bank of Australia's preview they cite their internal data as indicating a quarterly wage growth of around 0.9%, a notable decrease from the 1.3% growth seen in the same quarter last year, which had been boosted by a significant 5.75% increase in award and minimum wages. As a result, the annual wage growth rate is projected to fall to 3.6%, bringing it closer to a level compatible with sustainable, in-target inflation.

While the labour market softening, but from strong levels, the RBA is eyeing wage growth as a factor helping keep inflation sticky. A moderation in growth for wages will be welcomed by the bank if it translates into softening price pressure also.

• This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
• I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.

The major US stock indices are all closing lower. No new records today.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow Industrial average -382.15 points or -0.86% at 43910.98
• S&P -17.36 points or -0.29% and 5983.99.
• NASDAQ index -17.36 points or -0.09% at 19281.40.

The small-cap was 2000 with a decline of -43.13 points or -1.77% at 2391.84.

• US indices close lower on the day. No new records today.
• Bitcoin trades above $90,000 for the first time. It broke the $80,000 level on Monday
• US CPI to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for 0.2% MoM
• It's not a pretty picture in China
• Fed's Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I'm optimistic that will continue
• BofA: Life don't come easy for CHF: What's the trade?
• US 10 year yield looks to close at the highest level since July 1
• Major European indices are closing sharply lower
• John Paulson drops out of the running for Treasury Secretary
• New York Fed: 1-year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 3.0% last month
• Fed's Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolves
• Fed's Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook
• And they are off. US stocks are marginally higher in the early trading
• LiteFinance Becomes the Official Trading Partner of Leicester City Football Club
• Kickstart the FX day. A look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective
• Canada Sept building permits +11.5% vs +1.7% expected
• Forexlive European FX news wrap: Not much action as we await the US CPI release tomorrow

Markets:

• Bitcoin trades to $90,000 for the first time, two days after passing $80,000. The high reached $90,243
• WTI crude trades down $0.07 at $67.97
• 2 year yield 4.338%, up 8.4 basis points. 10 year yield 4.421%, +11.4 basis points.
• Gold down -$20.78 or -0.79% at $2598.58. Lowest level since September 20
• S&P 500 -17.36 points or -0.29% at 5983.99.
• Nasdaq index down -17.36 points or -0.09% at 19,281.40. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P closed by the exact same point amount....
• Russell 2000 tumbled -43.13 points or -1.77% at 2391.84

In the US the NY Fed Survey showed inflation expectations moving lower with the one year inflation at 2.9% vs 3.0% estimate. That is the lowest in 4 years. The 3 and five years measures also declined with the 3 year down to 2.5% from 2.7%, and the 5 year down to 2.8% from 2.9%.

In Canada building permits soared by 11.5% after -6.3% decline last month. Overall permits were the second-highest level since the start of the new series in January 2017 but it's more of a one-off around government spending than anything related to the economy. Ontario's institutional component received big contributions from construction for long-term care facilities across the province and a hospital permit in Prince Edward County. Residential building is holding up on the multi-family side as the pipeline of condos continues to work its way through but single-family has flatlined.

The US bond market was open after Monday's Veteran's Day holiday and selling was the order of the day as traders price in the inflationary and growth implications of a GOP sweep (and perhaps increased deficits too). The 10-year yield rose close to 12 basis points. The 2 year is up close to 9 basis points.

The USD moved higher with the greenback moving the most vs the GBP (0.95%).. The GBPUSD moved to the lowest level since August 8 and traded below the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the April low. That level comes in at 1.27322. The current price is trading just above that level into the close for the day.

The EURUSD is rallying modestly into the close but still saw the dollar higher by 0.26% versus the EUR. The pair moved below the 1.0601 level which took to price to a new low for 2024. The low could only get to 1.0594 before bouncing higher into the close. The sellers in the EURUSD had their shot. They missed.

The USDJPY is closing higher by 0.61% and into a swing area between 154.54 and 155.21. The high price reached 154.92 extending above the high price from last week at 154.70. The price is trading at 154.62 into the close. Buyers are in control. Can they extend to the high target at 155.21.

The USDCAD traded to the highest level going back to October 2022 when the price extended to 1.3977. The high price today reached 1.3966 just 11 pips short of that high. The price is trading at 1.3949 going into the end of the trading day.

Gold continues its move to the downside after reaching record levels at the end of October at $2790.07. The price has since fallen -6.89% to $2597.88.

Bitcoin's sprint to the topside continued today with the price reaching above $90,000 for the first time ever and just 2-days after breaking above the $80,000 level. The high price reached $90,243. The price has come off that lofty level and trades at $88,092.

Barclays has issued a note suggesting that the re-election of Trump is unlikely to significantly impact oil market fundamentals in the near term.

The bank believes that current market dynamics are relatively stable and does not foresee major shifts tied to potential changes in U.S. leadership.

Barclays is recommending a long position on December 2025 Brent call spreads. The bank notes that volatility has recently decreased, and it perceives market sentiment as overly focused on downside risks, or the "left tail." In contrast, Barclays believes the risks are more balanced, especially in light of recent improvements in oil market fundamentals and the possibility of a more confrontational geopolitical landscape.

Australia data - Wage Price Index for Q3 2024:

+0.8% q/q for the third consecutive quarter

• expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%
• Both the private sector and the public sector rose 0.8%, seasonally adjusted, for the quarter.

+3.5% y/y, lowest annual rise for the series since December quarter 2022 and followed four consecutive quarters of annual wage growth equal to or above 4%.

• expected +3.6%, prior +4.1%

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes the Wage Price Index (WPI) quarterly, measuring changes in the price of labor, unaffected by shifts in workforce composition, hours worked, or employee characteristics.

The ABS provides detailed WPI data, including breakdowns by industry and sector, offering insights into wage trends across Australia's economy.

What we know so far

As of 7:00 a.m. UTC, most data providers, including ABC, CBS, NBC, and CNN, projected that Donald Trump would become the next president of the United States. However, even as Trump’s victory looks almost guaranteed at this point, it is the balance of power in the U.S. Congress that will determine how successfully and effectively the next president will be able to govern.

So far, Republicans have won an extra seat in the Senate, but neither of the parties has a clear advantage in the battle for the House of Representatives. Overall, the counting of votes is still at a relatively early stage, and it could be hours or even days before a final outcome is known. The contest will come down to seven swing states, only three of which (North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania) have been most likely won by Trump so far. Still, judging by the latest market reaction, it appears reasonable to infer that global investors are pricing in a decisive victory by Donald Trump.

What has been the impact so far

As of 7:00 a.m. UTC, the global markets were positioned for Donald Trump’s victory. U.S. Treasury yields and U.S. stock benchmark indices rallied sharply, pushing the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) higher. Given that, it is no wonder other major fiat currencies plunged, with EURUSD and GBPUSD down 1.82% and 1.32%, respectively, while bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $75,410, as per Coinbase.

'Such a dramatic shift in market sentiment is explained by Trump’s official policies, or more precisely by the possible effect these policies are likely to have,' says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker. 'Generally, it all boils down to Trump's tax, immigration, and trade policies, which differ greatly from what Harris proposed. The market perceives them as inflationary, which is why we are seeing a bullish impact in the U.S. dollar.'

The United States controls the world's primary reserve currency, the U.S. dollar, so only a few countries will not feel the effect of the latest U.S. presidential and congressional elections. Major currencies are already experiencing the initial impact. 'Major currencies are falling predominantly because the U.S. dollar is rising, but there is also a fear that Trump's policy on tariffs may hit their domestic economies,' Kar said.

Indeed, the primary reason for such a dramatic decline in EURUSD, for example, is that investors fear that Trump's policies on immigration and taxes will spur inflation and force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to tighten its monetary policy. This may expand the interest rate differential between the two economies, favouring the greenback. In addition, Trump has repeatedly threatened to impose tariffs on certain European goods like autos and chemicals. According to some analysts, Trump's proposed 10% universal tariff on all U.S. imports may erode Europe's GDP by up to 1.5% or about €260bn.

A similar kind of impact may await the United Kingdom, where Trump's blanket tariffs would hit billions of pounds of U.K. automotive, pharmaceutical, and liquor exports. It stands to logic that GBPUSD was down more than 1.3% today.

For similar reasons, CNYUSD (Chinese renminbi / U.S. dollar spot rate) hit a 3-month high. 'For the Chinese economy, the risks are even greater, as Trump promised to impose higher tariffs on Chinese goods. On top of that, under his administration, tensions are likely to grow over the CNYUSD exchange rate,' comments Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker. Although the currency policy of the future Trump Administration is unclear, in his interview with Bloomberg, he had this to say: ‘We have a big currency problem because the depth of the currency now in terms of strong dollar / weak yen, weak yuan, is massive.

Interestingly, the impact on the gold market has been relatively muted so far. As of 7:00 a.m. UTC, XAUUSD was down 1.2%, but historically, it is not a significant swing, especially given how much the U.S. dollar has strengthened. 'Because Trump's victory appears to be decisive, it lowers the probability of social tensions in the U.S., which is not a minor factor considering how fractious U.S. politics has become lately. Thus, XAUUSD is selling off, but I think there are bullish risks ahead as relations between China and the U.S. turn bitter,' comments Kar Yong Ang.

Indeed, Donald Trump will likely heighten the Sino-U.S. trade tensions, which is a positive factor for gold in general. In addition, Trump's massive tax cuts will likely expand the U.S. fiscal deficit and may turn some strategic investors away from the U.S. dollar and into gold and bitcoin. In fact, BTCUSD hit a new all-time high on the news of Trump's potential victory. He is seen as more actively supportive of cryptocurrencies than Harris.

In the short term, all the bullish dollar trades may temporarily reverse as traders buy the dips in EURUSD and GBPUSD in hope of a technical rebound. In the long term, however, the bearish pressure on these pairs will likely persist.

About Octa

Octa is an international broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and a variety of services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools.

The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including the improvement of educational infrastructure and short-notice relief projects supporting local communities.

Since its foundation, Octa has won more than 70 awards, including the ‘Best Forex Broker 2023’ award from AllForexRating and the ‘Best Mobile Trading Platform 2024’ award from Global Brand Magazine.

Following his win in Pennsylvania and earlier victories in other key battleground states in Georgia and North Carolina, Republican candidate Donald Trump took to the stage shortly after in Palm Beach, Florida.

Trump is set to become the 47th President of the United States (US) as he took an early victory lap on stage and expressed gratitude to his family, friends and team. Interestingly, alongside Grover Cleveland – the first Democrat elected following the Civil War – Trump is the second president to serve for a second non-consecutive term for four years.

In a surprising turn, Trump’s victory speech was relatively subdued; no threats of tariffs were mentioned, and he did not refer to his opponent, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who postponed her scheduled speech at Howard University. ‘Winning the popular vote was very nice’, Trump said in his speech, adding: ‘America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate; we have taken back control of the Senate’.

Several members of Trump’s team and friends were invited to speak on stage. His running mate, JD Vance of Ohio, thanked Trump for allowing him to ‘join you on this incredible journey’. Vance added, ‘I think we just witnessed the greatest political comeback in the history of the United States of America’.

Dana White, the CEO of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), also addressed the nation, stating, ‘Nobody deserves this more than him [Trump]’. He remarked that Trump ‘is the most resilient man I have ever met’.

Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX and Tesla, also received significant praise from Trump, voicing his appreciation and calling Musk a ‘super genius’, emphasising that ‘we have to protect our geniuses’. Musk has been vocal in his support for Trump and reportedly invested over US$130 million in his campaign.

Foreign leaders applauded Trump for his victory. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer congratulated Trump and said he looks forward to collaborating with Trump in the years ahead. India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi took to the platform X to convey his wishes as well, emphasising his desire to strengthen the partnership between the two countries. Additionally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described Trump's win as ‘history's greatest comeback’ in his post on X.

What Does Donald Trump’s Victory Mean for the US?

Donald Trump will be inaugurated on 20 January 2025 at the US Capitol building in Washington, DC. Americans can expect tax cuts, immigration controls and tariffs.

A Trump presidency will also likely mean lower taxes, a move with plans for widespread changes to taxation, which should increase spending and spur sentiment, at least in the near term.

In his own words, Donald Trump’s second term is expected to be ‘nasty a little bit at times, and maybe at the beginning in particular’. Trump has promised an aggressive approach towards illegal immigration in the US, which could include plans of mass deportation of undocumented migrants, noting that he ‘will launch the largest deportation program in American history to get the criminals out’.

Trade tariffs are another one of Trump’s policies that the US economy can expect, as he is expected to increase the protectionist policies he introduced in his first term. However, as noted, he failed to address this in his victory speech today.

Another important issue that Trump and the team must address is the debt ceiling (or debt limit), which is the maximum amount of money the US Treasury can borrow to pay its debt obligations. You may recall that the ‘statutory debt ceiling’ was suspended in early January and is due to be reinstated on 1 January 2025. This may involve the Treasury drawing on its existing cash to fulfil its short-term obligations until another suspension of the debt limit is imposed or the debt ceiling is further increased.

Trump Trade is Alive and Kicking

Markets responded as expected, reigniting the Trump Trade, with the US dollar (USD), US Treasury yields, US equities and digital currencies all catching a strong bid.

Despite moderately fading session highs, the US Dollar Index is up 1.5%, which could eventually see the Index aim for June peaks at around 106.13, closely followed by 106.52, the high for the year. US Treasury yields remain underpinned, with the benchmark 10-year yield holding near session highs around 4.42% (up 3.5%).

While commodities experienced a selloff, we have seen a modest recovery unfold, drawing spot gold (XAU/USD) and WTI oil off session lows. In the crypto space, versus the USD, Bitcoin clocked a fresh record high of US$75,415 (up 6.4%), and Ethereum is up nearly 9.0% and testing the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle, pencilled in from US$2,062 and US$2,790.

Warped Games, an indie game studio consisting of web3 and veteran game developers who have a legacy in creating player-focused games like LEGO Universe, Jumpgate, and Dragons and Titans, is on a mission to onboard millions of players to expand the Warped Universe, an immersive blockchain-powered game where players’ actions and decisions shape the environment and influence each season’s direction. After extensive exploration, Warped Games selected Sui as the blockchain to support this ambitious vision, thanks to its player-friendly approach and innovations in the Move language.

The announcement of Warped Games becoming an official partner with Mysten Labs arrives at a pivotal moment for blockchain gaming. With games like "Off The Grid" making strides toward mainstream adoption, this new collaboration marks another significant step in expanding blockchain gaming’s reach to a wider audience.

James Wing, Head of AAA Gaming Partnerships for Mysten Labs, commented on the official partnership: "Warped Games embodies what is exciting about this industry - founders and products that are built with passion to boldly address the wants of modern gamers. We are tremendously excited to partner with our friends at Warped and aid them in their journey to pioneer a new age of games on Sui."

Warped Universe: Empowering Players

Player empowerment is at the core of Warped Universe’s design. Here, players will be able to engage in PvE action in single-player or co-op mode, with an innovative multi-genre design giving players the flexibility to choose between turn-based or real-time genres across both ground and space gameplay. Players will also get to choose missions that influence the broader “meta-game,” affecting the balance of light and gravity for all, leading to wild and chaotic scenarios as each season aims to build a unique solar system in the Universe. This level of control redefines what it means to participate in a player-driven virtual world.

Breaking Barriers to Blockchain Accessibility

One of the largest obstacles facing blockchain adoption today is its intimidating complexity for newcomers. Traditional blockchain experiences involve managing seed phrases, navigating wallets, high fees, slow speed, and unfriendly, often intimidating transactions—barriers that can alienate potential users. Sui’s design eliminates these hurdles by offering a seamless, user-friendly blockchain experience required by games like Warped Universe, aiming to appeal to a mainstream gaming audience.

With Sui’s zkLogin feature, players can access the blockchain and create wallets using familiar credentials, like passkeys or existing logins, removing the need for seed phrases and technical know-how. For those who prefer greater control, Warped Universe will also allow players to connect their own self-custodied wallets, giving them the option to manage their assets independently. This accessibility empowers users to focus on what matters most—the game experience itself.

Enhanced NFT Utility with Move

Sui’s Move language and object model empower Warped Universe to create NFTs that go beyond static assets, offering dynamic, context-rich tokens that evolve with each player’s journey. Sui treats each asset as an individual, on-chain object with unique IDs and customizable fields, allowing NFTs to reflect player progression and deepen in-game immersion.

Innovations extend to the use of closed-loop tokens for in-game purchases and season pass NFTs, which act as "time capsules", allowing players to revisit exclusive content from past seasons. With each season in Warped Universe serving as a self-contained story arc, these season passes aren’t just NFTs—they’re gateways to the game’s evolving history, creating lasting value and enhancing player ownership.

Kiosk: Marketplace Re-Imagined

Kiosk is a decentralized system designed for commerce applications on the Sui network, similar to traditional markets where vendors sell goods or services from small, standalone booths. Just like in those markets, where individual sellers operate their own kiosks, owning the products on display and managing their own sales, with Kiosk, shared objects are owned by individual parties who store assets and may list them for sale as well as utilizing custom trading functionality, such as royalties and the ability to rent assets.

Walrus: Re-Defining Digital Ownership in Warped Universe

As Warped Universe expands, decentralized storage will play a crucial role in ensuring the authenticity and accessibility of in-game assets. Mysten Labs’ Walrus protocol is set to support this need, providing a secure and efficient way to store raw data and media files—such as images, audio, video, and other game assets—at low cost without compromising performance. Unlike traditional NFTs, which often store metadata off-chain on platforms like IPFS or AWS, Walrus enables both the NFT and its metadata to be stored in a decentralized manner. This integration introduces new ways for players in Warped Universe to experience genuine ownership of their digital assets, giving them the ability to store in-game captures or statistics, and creating a more immersive and reliable player-driven experience.

High Performance, Scalability, and Environmental Responsibility

In Warped Universe, players aren’t just playing a game; they’re building and defending entire solar systems each season, with their achievements and digital assets minted and transacted on-chain in the background. This model requires a blockchain capable of handling high transaction volumes both efficiently and affordably. Sui’s high throughput and low transaction costs make this possible, providing fast, cost-effective, and seamless on-chain transactions that support a robust gaming economy.

Sui also prioritizes environmental sustainability by using a delegated proof-of-stake (DPoS) consensus model rather than energy-intensive proof-of-work. With its efficient Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) architecture, Sui can process large transaction volumes with minimal environmental impact—aligning perfectly with Warped Games’ vision of a sustainable, responsible gaming ecosystem.

“With Sui, we can create an immersive, evolving on-chain gaming ecosystem where players can own, modify, and evolve assets without compromising the gaming experience,” said Adam Straney, Managing Director at Warped Games. “This approach lets us build an interconnected universe on a blockchain that’s fast, scalable, and environmentally responsible, supporting our vision of an accessible, seamless player-owned economy. Gamers can focus on having fun, with blockchain as a supportive tool rather than the centerpiece."

Looking Ahead with Warped Universe and Sui

Currently, the blockchain element in Warped Universe is the $WARPED token, an ERC-20 token designed to give holders a voice in game design, seasonal voting, discounts, potential rewards, and exclusives. While specific plans for the token’s future are yet to be announced, the Warped Universe team is committed to keeping current holders top of mind as they explore expanding to the Sui blockchain. Plans for the WARPED token, on-chain assets, skins, seasonal passes, and other elements will be shared in due time—stay tuned for updates.

As Warped Universe continues to develop, the teams at Warped Games and Mysten Labs are dedicated to working closely together to explore practical blockchain integration in games, enhancing player ownership, scalability, and immersive gameplay. Together, through Warped Universe and the Sui blockchain, they’re building a unique, player-driven experience that showcases the future of blockchain gaming.

About Warped Games

Warped Games (https://warped.games/) is an indie game studio dedicated to creating immersive, player-driven gaming experiences with a focus on blockchain integration. Known for pushing the boundaries of web3 technology, the team behind Warped Games combines industry veterans from both gaming and tech to bring innovative worlds like Warped Universe to life.

About Mysten Labs

Mysten Labs is a technology company focused on advancing blockchain infrastructure to support next-generation applications. Founded by experts in distributed systems, Mysten Labs developed the Sui blockchain, a high-performance, user-friendly platform designed to make blockchain technology accessible and scalable for mainstream audiences.

LiteFinance has entered into a multi-year partnership with Premier League football club Leicester City as their Official Trading Partner.

We are excited to announce that LiteFinance has entered into a multi-year partnership with Premier League football club Leicester City as their Official Trading Partner. This collaboration marks a significant milestone for LiteFinance as we expand our presence into the world of sports, aligning our brand with one of England’s most admired football clubs. Leicester City Football Club is pleased to confirm LiteFinance as its new Official Trading Partner.

Established in 2005, LiteFinance has grown into a leading online broker, offering high-speed trading services in 29 international languages. Our platform is designed to empower clients with financial freedom, providing access to a comprehensive range of trading instruments in the currency, commodity, stock, and agricultural markets. Through this partnership, we aim to bring our innovative, accessible trading solutions to a broader audience, enhancing the experience for both our clients and Leicester City’s global fanbase. Shared Values and Vision Both LiteFinance and Leicester City share a commitment to excellence, innovation, and a global outlook. The Foxes have a significant following, particularly in Southeast Asia, where they enjoy one of the largest social media reach outside of the Premier League’s traditional top six clubs. This partnership will allow LiteFinance to engage with new audiences and create memorable experiences for football fans and our clients alike. Visibility and Engagement As part of this partnership, LiteFinance will benefit from extensive brand visibility, including pitch-facing LED advertising, logo placements on interview backdrops, and a selection of digital advertising. Additionally, our clients will have exclusive access to branded promotional materials, such as custom merchandise, and will be able to participate in special contests and promotions designed to bring excitement and memorable experiences to football fans. These initiatives are tailored to enhance engagement and connect with Leicester City supporters meaningfully. Statements from Leadership Kristina Leonova, CEO of LiteFinance, commented: “We are thrilled to embark on this exciting journey with Leicester City. This partnership reflects our mutual commitment to excellence and innovation. It will allow us to connect with new audiences and create impactful experiences while delivering on our promises and setting new standards of success.”LiteFinance is proud to partner with Leicester City Football Club and looks forward to a fruitful relationship that will bring value to both organizations and the communities we serve. We are confident that this collaboration will set the stage for innovative initiatives and successful outcomes in the future. Leicester City Commercial Director, Dan Barnett, added: “This collaboration marks an exciting chapter for us as we continue to expand our global reach with new partners. We look forward to working closely with LiteFinance to further elevate the Club's presence on the international stage in unique ways.”

0945 GMT / 0445 US Eastern time - Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann is a panellist on the Female Central Bankers panel organised by BNP Paribas’ Global Markets

*

The Bank of England cut last week

• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 7 Nov: FOMC/BOE cuts by 25 basis points

Expectations are for slower cuts ahead:

• More gradual Bank of England rate cuts = support for GBP

We had Fed speakers on Tuesday US time, Kashkari watered down the prospect of a December rate cut ... didn;t rule it out but he sounds shaky:

• Fed's Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I'm optimistic that will continue
• Fed's Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolves
• Fed's Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook

The agenda ahead includes another three. The times below are GMT/US Eastern time format:

• 1435/0935 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks before hybrid "Energy and the Economy: Meeting Rising Energy Demand" Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City
• 1800/1300 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks before an Economic Club of Memphis luncheon
• 1830/1330 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid gives luncheon keynote before hybrid "Energy and the Economy: Meeting Rising Energy Demand" Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City

• Fed speakers on energy, the economy, and maybe policy due on Wednesday
• US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they're crucial to know)
• AUD traders heads up - Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock speaks Thursday
• The argument for a near-term Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut remains very thin
• Japan's Seven & i Holdings is considering a management buyout
• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann speaking Wednesday
• Australia - "Wage inflation is moderating as expected"
• PBoC promised stronger damping to support CNY, and that's what are seeing
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1991 (vs. estimate at 7.2305)
• Dogecoin catches a bid on Trump's new DOGE department headed by Musk
• Trump names Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy to lead Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)
• Australia data - Wage Price Index for Q3 2024: +0.8% q/q (expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%)
• Japan PPI (October) +0.2% m/m (expected 0%) and +3.4% y/y (expected +3.0%)
• Barclays on oil - current market dynamics relatively stable, doesn't foresee major shifts
• ECB Interest Rate Forecast: Deutsche Bank's 7 reasons for projecting a lower terminal rate
• BoA expect a 4% EPS benefit for S&P 500 equites from Trump corporate tax cuts
• US CPI data due Wednesday - possible upside surprise.
• Green shoots in China? Excavator sales grew 15% in October
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 12 Nov: Bitcoin hits $90K. Stocks fall. USD moves higher.
• NY Fed Perli says there's been more friction in money mkts lately, repo rate rise orderly
• Amazon’s Bezos sells US$1.25bn of shares
• US indices close lower on the day. No new records today.
• Bitcoin trades above $90,000 for the first time. It broke the $80,000 level on Monday
• Trade ideas thread - Wednesday, 13 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Small ranges prevailed during Asia time with many traders content to wait until the US inflation data later.

• US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they're crucial to know)

Data events during the session here were lower-tier. We had PPI data from Japan coming in higher than expected. Renewed yen weakness pushed up import costs for some goods. At the margin, an argument can be made that the data was supportive of a nearer-term Bank of Japan rate hike. Against this is, of course, is the new political pressure on the Bank to not hike until wages are seen rising at the next round of wage negotiations in (Japan's) spring. Many months away. The Bank of Japan next meet on December 18 - 19.

USD/JPY moved a little higher, but didn’t get to 155.00. As I post its around the middle of its session range circa 154.80.

Data from Australia showed wage growth moderating a little. This is not sufficient for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its cash rate any time soon. The next meeting is December 9 – 10, and then in February (17 – 18).

Earlier this week People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized that the Bank will not let the yuan plummet without a fight:

• Will step up countercyclical adjustment
• Should resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot

Today the Bank set the USD/CNY reference rate more than 300 points lower than model estimates (ie a stronger yuan). The Bank delivered on its word to support the yuan. Offshore yuan has jumped (lower USD/CNH).

Bitcoin sat near US$88K.

European trading will be a bit of a snoozer as such with a lack of headlines. But perhaps we might get some interesting market moves to talk about in the run up to the US CPI report. USD/JPY is now inching just above 155.00 for the first time since end July while EUR/USD is looking heavy near the April low of 1.0601. Those will be two of the more interesting charts in play currently.

Elsewhere, US futures are pointing lower with gold back up slightly just above $2,600 and Bitcoin is down to below $87,000 after briefly brushing up against the $90,000 mark overnight. So, there are some mixed moves in there for the time being.

In terms of data releases, there's just the US MBA mortgage applications at 1200 GMT. With rates having shot higher post-election, that is likely to keep sentiment in a more dour spot after last week's report here.

As for euro area releases, there's nothing on the agenda for today.

Fundamental Overview

Gold is now down almost 6% from the US election day. That shouldn’t be surprising as the last time we got a red sweep gold dropped by more than 16%.

The reason is that a red sweep brings a more expansionary fiscal policy and should be not only positive for growth but also for inflation.

In fact, the market now sees just two 25 bps rate cuts in 2025 which is already much less than the four projected by the Fed in September.

In the bigger picture, gold remains in a bullish trend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the Fed’s easing cycle, but for now the short-term trend is to the downside due to the repricing in rate cuts expectations.

Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that gold is now trading near the key trendline around the 2600 level. This is where the buyers are stepping in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next trendline around the 2400 level.

Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the strong support zone we have around the 2600 level where there’s the confluence of the previous swing low level and the trendline. We can see that we also have a downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum.

If we get a pullback, the sellers will likely lean on it to position for the break below the major trendline, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high.

Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have another minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. More aggressive sellers might lean on this one to position for the break of the major trendline, while the buyers will look for a break higher to target the pullback into the next downward trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today, we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

See the video below

Fundamental Overview

The puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might have also seen some pre-positioning in the past couple of days into a potentially hot US CPI report today.

At the latest Fed’s decision, Fed Chair Powell said that they expect bumps on inflation and that one or two bad data months on inflation won’t change the process. This keeps the 25 bps cut in December in place even if we get higher inflation readings.

The market though is forward-looking, and the rise in Treasury yields showed that the market sees risks to the inflation outlook. Moreover, the red sweep could increase those fears if the progress on inflation stalls, or worse, reverses.

The market might have already assigned some premium to a higher than expected print, so there's some risk of a short-term "sell the fact" reaction on a higher than expected number.

It goes without saying that a bigger than expected upside surprise should see the momentum increasing immediately with the US Dollar likely rallying across the board and Treasury yields shooting higher.

On the other hand, a soft print will likely see the US Dollar and Treasury yields falling, although one can argue that it's just going to provide a pullback to go long the US Dollar and short bonds again at even better levels as future conditions will likely see inflation getting stuck above the target or even moving back higher.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD broke through the key support zone around the 1.0777 following the Trump’s victor, retested it and eventually continued lower. We are now testing another key level at 1.06 handle, and this is where the buyers are stepping in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally back into the 1.0777 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.05 handle next.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. We can expect the sellers to lean on it to position for the break below the 1.06 handle, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.0777 level.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 1.0630 level where we have the trendline for confluence. This is where the sellers are likely to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for the break below the 1.06 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.0777 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today, we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

Fundamental Overview

The puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might have also seen some pre-positioning in the past couple of days into a potentially hot US CPI report today.

At the latest Fed’s decision, Fed Chair Powell said that they expect bumps on inflation and that one or two bad data months on inflation won’t change the process. This keeps the 25 bps cut in December in place even if we get higher inflation readings.

The market though is forward-looking, and the rise in Treasury yields showed that the market sees risks to the inflation outlook. Moreover, the red sweep could increase those fears if the progress on inflation stalls, or worse, reverses.

The market might have already assigned some premium to a higher than expected print, so there's some risk of a short-term "sell the fact" reaction on a higher than expected number.

It goes without saying that a bigger than expected upside surprise should see the momentum increasing immediately with the US Dollar likely rallying across the board and Treasury yields shooting higher.

On the other hand, a soft print will likely see the US Dollar and Treasury yields falling, although one can argue that it's just going to provide a pullback to go long the US Dollar and short bonds again at even better levels as future conditions will likely see inflation getting stuck above the target or even moving back higher.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF broke through the key downward trendline following Trump’s victory and, after a brief pullback, continued higher as the trend in the US Dollar remains skewed to the upside.

We now have an upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. If we get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to lean on it to position for a rally into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the 0.85 handle.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have another minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to push into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to start targeting new lows.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much to add here as the buyers will look for a bounce around the trendline, while the sellers will look for a break. The US CPI report today is going to be a major catalyst, so it would be better to wait for the release before taking any position. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today, we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

For some context, these subsidies did come to an end in May but were reinstated in August through to October to cope with the warmer weather. Subsequently, they were continued until this year-end but the funds had to be drawn from reserves in the budget for the fiscal year that started in April.

NHK is now reporting that the government is considering keeping these subsidies from January through to March next year. Amid a higher cost of living in key populated areas such as Tokyo, the measure above is mainly to try and combat rising consumer prices.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – In response to the passing on Disney Senior Vice President of Government Relations Richard Bates, the following statement can be attributed to NAB President and CEO Gordon Smith:

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Given broadcasters' integral role in educating the public on COVID-19 and vaccine deployment, the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) has joined the COVID Collaborative, a national assembly of experts and organizations working on unified action against the COVID-19 pandemic. NAB President and CEO Gordon Smith will serve on the Collaborative’s National Advisory Council.

Washington, D.C. – The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB), the Donald W. Reynolds Journalism Institute (RJI) and the National Association of Chain Drug Stores (NACDS) today announced the launch of an online toolkit to help local journalists craft COVID-19 vaccine education messages that best resonate with their audiences. The toolkit is designed to provide journalists with information and resources to create news reports, public service announcements and other messages related to vaccine safety, effectiveness and distribution.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – In response to the Department of Justice's decision to take no action on the consent decrees governing the performance royalty organizations ASCAP and BMI, the following statement can be attributed to NAB President and CEO Gordon Smith: