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The People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.

• USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.
• CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.
• A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected is typically considered a signal from the PBOC.

Previous close was 7.2150

The rate today at 7.1927 is weakest since September 12 of 2023.

PBOC injects 125bn yuan via 7-day RR, sets rate at 1.5%

• 18bn yuan mature today
• net injection is 107bn yuan

*-*-

/*/*

Heads up for a barrage of Fed speakers due Tuesday 12 November 2024:

10:00 AM ET / 1500 GMT

• Fed's Waller (Governor, Voter) speech (the topic is 'payments')

10:15 AM ET / 1515 GMT

• Fed's Barkin (Richmond Fed President, non-voter) speech

2:00 PM ET / 1900 GMT

• Fed's Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed President, non-voter)

5:00 PM ET / 2200 GMT

• Fed's Harker (Philadelphia Fed President, non-voter) speech

5:30 PM ET / 2230 GMT

• Fed's Barkin (Richmond Fed President, non-voter) speaks again

• One year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 3.0% last month. That is the lowest in four years
• Three-year inflation expectations 2.5% versus 2.7% last month
• Five-year inflation expectations 2.8% versus 2.9% last month

other details :

• Consumers in October saw lower likelihood of missing a minimum debt payment for the first time in five months
• Consumers in October saw lowest likelihood of a rising US unemployment rate over the next year since February 2022
• Consumers saw lower chance of losing current job and improved prospects for finding a new job if current job were lost
• Unemployment expectations decline to 34.5%, lowest since February 2022
• Probability of finding a job increase the highest level since October 2023

This is good news is inflation expectations help to keep a lid on actual inflation. Nevertheless yields remain near highs for the day.

• 2 year 4.321%, +6.7 basis points
• 5-year 4.281%, +8.9 basis points
• 10 year 4.390%, 8.2 basis points

US stocks are lower:

• Dow -0.38%
• S&P -0.33%
• NASDAQ -0.14%

People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%.

How the process works:

• Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day's trading.
• The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.
• Intervention: If the yuan's value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency's value.

Earlier re China:

• Green shoots in China? Excavator sales grew 15% in October
• It's not a pretty picture in China

The People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.

• USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.
• CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.
• A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected is typically considered a signal from the PBOC.

Previous reference rate was 7.2355.

The setting at 7.1991, about 300-odd points lower than the modelled estimate is indicative of the PBoC pushing back against yuan weakness. AUD/USD has popped a little on the setting of a stronger than expected yuan.

PBOC injects 233bn yuan via 7-day RR, sets rate at 1.5%

• 17bn yuan mature today
• net injection is 216bn yuan

/*/*

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0885 level. It isn't one that holds much technical significance, especially with the 100-hour moving average at 1.0866 pinning price action down for now. But it could play a role in limiting any upside extensions in the session ahead at least.

Then, there is one for USD/CAD at the 1.3800 level. That alongside the 100-hour moving average of 1.3788 could help to provide a floor for price action, at least for the session ahead for the pair.

All of this considering the lack of key catalysts to get major currencies moving to kick start the week of course.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. It coincides with the 100-hour moving average currently, which is where price action was held up in trading yesterday. As such, the expiries alongside the key near-term level there should limit any upside extensions in the session ahead at least. Not to mention that there is a large one at the same level there for tomorrow.

Then, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6675 level. It isn't one that holds much technical significance so I wouldn't the expiries to provide too much of a draw. However, it could still anchor down price action during the session especially with the 100 and 200-hour moving averages seen at 0.6688-00 currently.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. The size of the expiries is noteworthy but it might not feature too much into play as the dollar is keeping firmer this week. Besides that, there is the 100-hour moving average at 1.0834 keeping a ceiling on price action for now. As such, that could limit the influence and impact of the expiries. But if we do see it come into play, expect that to be a spot in anchoring any upside extensions.

There will be more expiries towards the downside under 1.0800 in the day ahead, so there's that to consider as well.

Besides that, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6670 level. It isn't one that ties to any technical significance again, but it could just keep price action a little stickier with little else to work with in the session ahead. Near-term upside for the pair is more limited by the 100-hour moving average at 0.6689 currently.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are quite a number on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold.

The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.0780 level through to 1.0800. That might keep price action locked in for a while until we get to the euro area PMI data later. If there is downside surprises to the data, we could even see the expiries at 1.0750 get looped into play. That might provide some base for price action if the data stirs up appetite for a 50 bps rate cut by the ECB for December.

Then, there is one for USD/JPY at the 152.00 level and that could provide a bit of a floor to any retracement in price action we're seeing on the day. That at least until the expiries roll off. But again, the bond market remains the more influential driver for the pair at this stage. So, keep that in mind.

There is also one for USD/CAD at the 1.3810 level, and that sits in between the key hourly moving averages at 1.3802-20 currently. As such, that might keep price action in check above the 1.3800 level after the BOC yesterday.

And lastly, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6640 level. I wouldn't attach too much technical significance to it though but it may yet just act as a bit of a magnet for price action before rolling off. That is if risk sentiment continues to stay more muted and pensive in general. The 200-day moving average at 0.6628 remains the more attractive level to watch for the pair currently, with upside potential more limited closer to the 100-hour moving average at 0.6676.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

The ones for EUR/USD are seen at the 1.0800 and 1.0820 levels. The ones at the former held price action yesterday before rolling off and the ones today should keep downside price action more limited in between the key levels. Looking at the near-term chart, we are seeing price hold in between the 100 and 200-hour moving averages of 1.0809 and 1.0838. So, that is also boxing things in going into the session ahead.

Then, there is one for USD/CAD at the 1.3855 level. It isn't one that holds any technical significance but may just anchor price action before we get to the Canadian retail sales data later in the day at least.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to really take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0800 level. Alongside the 100-hour moving average nearby at 1.0802 currently, it is likely to keep a lid on price action in the session ahead. That especially with higher yields continuing to underpin the dollar in general to start the new week. But the range for the day is relatively narrow, so we might see some extension plays but arguably limited by the expiries above. If anything, the 200-hour moving average at 1.0827 will act as a "safety net" of sorts in limiting any outsized price extensions with little catalysts for the time being.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

It's the same one for EUR/USD as seen yesterday, at the 1.0800 level. The expiries today are relatively large and could provide a draw/magnet for price action in the session ahead. That could very well keep the price range more limited, alongside key near-term levels.

The 200-hour moving average, seen at 1.0820 currently, is still providing a ceiling for any upside extensions. And price action is trading narrowly in between that and the 100-hour moving average, seen at 1.0803 currently. So, the expiries at 1.0800 adds to some pull in and around those levels.

That until they roll off later in the day or we get a key catalyst of sorts, which isn't likely given the lack of items on the economic calendar until US trading.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

Justin is away for today. This is my sad imitation of his awesome option expiry post ;-)

Justin will be back on Monday.

EUR/USD

• 1.0900 (EUR1.1bn), 1.0840 (EUR863m)

USD/CAD

• 1.3940 (US$693m), 1.3885 (US$650m), 1.3900 (US$457m)

GBP/USD

• 1.2900 (GBP638m), 1.2850 (GBP600.4m), 1.2800 (GBP490m)

AUD/USD

• 0.6700 (AUD451m)

NZD/USD

• 0.6100 (NZD720m)

USD/CNY

• 7.1500 ($854m)

EUR/GBP

• 0.8340 (EUR719m), 0.8400 (EUR328m), 0.8200 (EUR305m)

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 and 1.0625 levels. The pair is being pressured to the downside, touching its lowest levels since April now as the dollar continues to rampage forward. As such, that will put added emphasis on key support from the April low of 1.0601. The expiries above will just add a bit of a defensive layer as well, at least for the session ahead.

There will also be another notable one at 1.0600 for tomorrow, so just keep that in your back pocket in case. But for now, the post-election dollar sentiment continues to be the number one driver.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

The price of crude oil is trading down $-2.20 or -3.12% at $68.20. That's the lowest level since October 30.

The price reached a peak on Thursday at $72.84. That the price briefly above its 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high at $72.59. However on Friday, the price fell below its 100-hour moving average near $71.50 and in trading today, fell and stayed below its 200-hour moving average at $70.52. It would take a move back above the 200-hour moving average to hurt the bearish bias.

On the downside, the price is approaching a swing low going back to October 18 at $68.13. Move below that level and traders will start to look toward a rising trendline near $68.10. The low price from October 29 comes near $66.69.

Meanwhile, gasoline prices in the US are down -11.36% on the year at $3.19 (average price for all grades of gasoline). Prior to Covid, the price was around $2.78. The low at the depth of Covid reached $1.87. The current level is near the lows from the end of 2023 and start of 2024 near $3.17.

Retail Gasoline prices for all grades of gasoline

Last week, the preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 73.0. With gas prices continuing to move lower and the Trump victory, what will that do to sentiment? The high for the Biden administration reached 86.5 with the low at 50.2 in June 2022. That corresponded with the high in gasoline prices.

More records are reached today:

• Dow industrial average closes over 44,000 for the first time ever
• S&P index closes above the 6000 level the first time ever
• NASDAQ index closes at a new record level as well

For the Russell 2000 it lasts record close was back on November 8, 2021 at 2442.21. The index closed at 2434.97 after reaching an intraday high of 2441.72 just short of the record closing level.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average +304.14 points or 0.69% at 44293.13
• S&P index up 5.81 points or 0.10% at 6001.35
• NASDAQ index is up 11.99 points or 0.06% at 19298.76
• Russell 2000 up 35.33 points or 1.47% at 2434.97

For the Russell 2000, its high intraday level reached 2458.85 on November 10, 2021. For the year, the Russell 2000 is now up 20.12%. That has now surpassed a down industrial average gain of 17.52%.

The S&P index is now up 25.82% in 2024 while the NASDAQ index is up 28.56%.

As the North American session begins, the bond traders return after a day off in observance of Veterans Day. Yields are higher to start their trading week with the 2 year up 6.5 basis points at 4.319% and the 10 year up 6.3 basis points at 4.371%. The 2 year yield has moved to a new high going back to July 31 today (4.336%). For the 10 year, it traded as high as 4.773% last week, but fell into Friday with the low reaching 4.558% before bouncing modestly on Friday. That upside has reached 4.64% today - off the low but below the high from last week.

Bitcoin moved to a high of $89,983 today - a new record - but has come off and trades at $86,430 currently. The low reached $85208 today in volatile trading.

Oil is higher after falling over 3% lower yesterday. The price is up 43% or 0.64% at $68.52 currently. The high reached $68.76 and a low at $67.78.

Gold is down another $11 or -.045% at $2607.28. The low reached $2589.80 before bouncing.

In the US stock market, the major indices are marginally higher after record closes across the three major indices. The Russell 2000 which has not reached a high since July 2021 got within shouting distance of it record at 2437.08. The high yesterday reached 2441.72. The Dow futures are imploring a gain of 78 points. The S&P is up 1.65 points and the Nasdaq index is now up 7.91 points.

There will be several Fed speakers today with Governor Waller, Minneapolis Fed Pres. Kashkari, Philadelphia Fed Pres. Parker, and Richmond Fed Pres. Barkin all scheduled to speak

ECB policymaker Olli Rehn emphasized that while the direction of the ECB’s monetary policy is clear, the pace of any changes will be data-dependent. The economic outlook, impacted by a struggling manufacturing sector, has deteriorated. Rehn suggested that if disinflation continues, it could support additional rate cuts, with the ECB potentially moving away from restrictive policy territory by spring 2025. He warned against protectionism, noting that tariffs would have a medium-to-long-term impact and are inherently inflationary. With growth in the euro area expected to remain sluggish and downside risks prevalent, Rehn awaits the December projections for a clearer assessment of the economic landscape.

EURUSD: The selling in the EURUSD continue as a less friendly US with Pres. Elect Trump, spell slower growth with increased tariffs the concern. Technically, the price initially moved higher in the Asian session but found willing sellers near the low of the swing area between 1.0663 and 1.06703. That was swing lows in June 2024. Staying below kept the sellers in control, and they pushed lower. The price has since moved down to a low of 1.0606 which tests the lows from April when a series of swing lows bottomed the pair. Those levels are also the lows for the year (going back to October 2023).

USDJPY: The USDJPY rose yesterday and then stalled in the US session between 153.59 to 153.88 (swing area). Recall, the 153.88 level was a swing high from July 31. The highs from October 28 and October 29 was at 153.88 too. Today, the price moved lower and below the swing area low, BUT found support at the 61.8% of the move down from the July high. That level comes in at 153.397. Going forward, that hold increases that technical levels importance as support. Move below would increase the bearish bias in the short term at least.

On the topside, the price has now moved back above the 153.88 level (bullish). If the price can stay above that level now, that would be the most bullish technical scenario as buyers show their strength on the break. On the topside, the 154.54 up to 155.09 would be the next target area to stretch towards. Get above that area over time, and it adds to the bullish bias. Buyers making a play. Can they keep the momentum going?

GBPUSD:The GBPUSD fell below the lows from the last 2 weeks (last week low was at 1.28329) and sellers jumped, pushing the price through the 200 day MA at 1.28178. The breaks are more bearish and the low price reached 1.27915 and has bounced. The price has traded above and below the 200-day MA at 1.28179, but has so far stayed below the low from last week at 1.28329. If the price moves back above that level and momentum back to the upside is able to get above 1.2844 and the 50% of the move up from the April low at 1.2866, the buyers are showing some strength and the sellers will start worrying about the failures more and more. Conversely, if the price can stay below the 1.2832 and 1.2844 that keeps the sellers confidence high, but gettng below the 200-day MA is still required again. The price is currently trading near the 200-day MA but remains below 1.28329.

USDCHF: The USDCHF extended above the 200 day MA at 0.88176 and also a swing area from 0.88187 to 0.8825. That was a bullish move and the price moved to a high of 0.88303 but failed. The price is back below the 200 day MA and swing area. The price is trading near 0.8800 (0.8802 is the low). ON the downside the 50% is at 0.87986. If that is broken, then the swing area, the 200 day MA and the 50% failed. That should give buyers cause for pause as the buyers had their shot, and they missed. But the price still needs to get below 50%.

The EURUSD is pushing against its 2024 low at 1.0601. A break below that level would open the door for further downside momentum. A move to new laws would take the price to the lowest level since November 2, 2023.

There is not a lot support technically until a swing area near 1.05158 and 1.05316.

The USDCHF has moved up to a high of 0.88357. That is just short of a high swing area on the daily chart above at 0.88379. Get above that level and stay above, opens the door for more upside momentum.

ON the downside, the closest risk is the 200 day MA, but more conservative risk would be the 50% of the move down from the May high at 0.87986. I would think that short term traders seeing a move above the 50% and the 200 day MA would want to see both those technical levels remain broken.

If not, there could be some disappointment on the failed break and more downside corrective probing.

The US CPI will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET. What is expected?

• October Headline CPI expected to rise by 0.2% MoM, which is the same as last month. The forecasted range is 0.1 to 0.3%.
• YoY Headline CPI expected to increase to 2.6%, up from 2.4%, with a forecast range of 2.3 to 2.6%. A change of 0.0% will fall out of the YoY calculation this month.
• Core CPI projected to rise 0.3% MoM and 3.3% YoY, matching the previous month. The forecast range is 0.2 to 0.3% MoM and 3.2 to 3.4% Y/Y. A year ago, a gain of 0.2% falls out of the calculation.

The US PPI will be released on Thursday with the expectations of 0.2% for the MoM headline and 0.3% for the core measure.

Fed's Barkin this morning on inflation kept it simple saying::

• Inflation might be coming under control or might risk getting stuck above Fed 2% target.

Kashkari had more to say about inflation today with different influences. He said.

• Uncertainty exists around the impact of new government policies on inflation.
• A one-time tariff increase is transitory but could become a sustained issue if it escalates, introducing inflation risks.
• Immigration policy changes could have a significant effect on inflation, but the outcome is uncertain.
• Inflation from new leases will take a couple of years to work through the system.
• Housing inflation is expected to return to normal levels, but it may take a year or two.
• If inflation surprises to the upside before December, it may affect policy decisions.
• Current long-term yield increases don’t seem to reflect heightened inflation expectations.
• Higher productivity could suggest a higher neutral rate, potentially influencing future rate cuts.

There were numerous Fed speakers on Tuesday, US time:

• Fed's Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I'm optimistic that will continue
• Fed's Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolves
• Fed's Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook

and we get one more today in Asia:

• 2200 GMT / 1700 US Eastern time - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speaks on "Fintech, AI and the Changing Financial Landscape".

Which doesn't sound too promising for remarks from him on the economy or monetary policy. But, perhaps we'll get a mortsel thrown to us in any Q&A.

***

As for the data agenda, it's a bit of a yawn, none of it likely to move around major FX upon release.

From Japan we'll get an update of wholesale inflation - the PPI for October. The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI)

• its a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output
• is calculated by the Bank of Japan

Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the price change that consumers see for a basket of goods and services, the CGPI focuses on the change in the prices of goods sold by companies.

The PPI reflects some of cost pressures faced by producers

• its based on a basket of goods that represents the range of products produced within the Japanese economy, including items such as:
  • raw materials like metals and chemicals
  • semi-finished goods
  • and finished products
  • different weights are assigned to each category within the index based on its contribution to the overall economy.
• it does not account for the quality improvements in goods and services over time, which might lead to overestimation of inflation
  • additionally, it reflects only the prices of domestically produced goods, leaving out the impact of imported goods

The PPI can be used as a guide to inflationary pressures in the economy:

• If producers are facing higher costs, they may pass these on to consumers, leading to higher consumer prices.

***

From Australia we'll get wages data for Q3. Wage growth is expected to keep slowing (y/y) in Q3 2024. With the labor market softening, upward pressure on wages has been easing over recent quarters.

In Commonwealth Bank of Australia's preview they cite their internal data as indicating a quarterly wage growth of around 0.9%, a notable decrease from the 1.3% growth seen in the same quarter last year, which had been boosted by a significant 5.75% increase in award and minimum wages. As a result, the annual wage growth rate is projected to fall to 3.6%, bringing it closer to a level compatible with sustainable, in-target inflation.

While the labour market softening, but from strong levels, the RBA is eyeing wage growth as a factor helping keep inflation sticky. A moderation in growth for wages will be welcomed by the bank if it translates into softening price pressure also.

• This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
• I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.

• US indices close lower on the day. No new records today.
• Bitcoin trades above $90,000 for the first time. It broke the $80,000 level on Monday
• US CPI to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for 0.2% MoM
• It's not a pretty picture in China
• Fed's Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I'm optimistic that will continue
• BofA: Life don't come easy for CHF: What's the trade?
• US 10 year yield looks to close at the highest level since July 1
• Major European indices are closing sharply lower
• John Paulson drops out of the running for Treasury Secretary
• New York Fed: 1-year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 3.0% last month
• Fed's Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolves
• Fed's Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook
• And they are off. US stocks are marginally higher in the early trading
• LiteFinance Becomes the Official Trading Partner of Leicester City Football Club
• Kickstart the FX day. A look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective
• Canada Sept building permits +11.5% vs +1.7% expected
• Forexlive European FX news wrap: Not much action as we await the US CPI release tomorrow

Markets:

• Bitcoin trades to $90,000 for the first time, two days after passing $80,000. The high reached $90,243
• WTI crude trades down $0.07 at $67.97
• 2 year yield 4.338%, up 8.4 basis points. 10 year yield 4.421%, +11.4 basis points.
• Gold down -$20.78 or -0.79% at $2598.58. Lowest level since September 20
• S&P 500 -17.36 points or -0.29% at 5983.99.
• Nasdaq index down -17.36 points or -0.09% at 19,281.40. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P closed by the exact same point amount....
• Russell 2000 tumbled -43.13 points or -1.77% at 2391.84

In the US the NY Fed Survey showed inflation expectations moving lower with the one year inflation at 2.9% vs 3.0% estimate. That is the lowest in 4 years. The 3 and five years measures also declined with the 3 year down to 2.5% from 2.7%, and the 5 year down to 2.8% from 2.9%.

In Canada building permits soared by 11.5% after -6.3% decline last month. Overall permits were the second-highest level since the start of the new series in January 2017 but it's more of a one-off around government spending than anything related to the economy. Ontario's institutional component received big contributions from construction for long-term care facilities across the province and a hospital permit in Prince Edward County. Residential building is holding up on the multi-family side as the pipeline of condos continues to work its way through but single-family has flatlined.

The US bond market was open after Monday's Veteran's Day holiday and selling was the order of the day as traders price in the inflationary and growth implications of a GOP sweep (and perhaps increased deficits too). The 10-year yield rose close to 12 basis points. The 2 year is up close to 9 basis points.

The USD moved higher with the greenback moving the most vs the GBP (0.95%).. The GBPUSD moved to the lowest level since August 8 and traded below the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the April low. That level comes in at 1.27322. The current price is trading just above that level into the close for the day.

The EURUSD is rallying modestly into the close but still saw the dollar higher by 0.26% versus the EUR. The pair moved below the 1.0601 level which took to price to a new low for 2024. The low could only get to 1.0594 before bouncing higher into the close. The sellers in the EURUSD had their shot. They missed.

The USDJPY is closing higher by 0.61% and into a swing area between 154.54 and 155.21. The high price reached 154.92 extending above the high price from last week at 154.70. The price is trading at 154.62 into the close. Buyers are in control. Can they extend to the high target at 155.21.

The USDCAD traded to the highest level going back to October 2022 when the price extended to 1.3977. The high price today reached 1.3966 just 11 pips short of that high. The price is trading at 1.3949 going into the end of the trading day.

Gold continues its move to the downside after reaching record levels at the end of October at $2790.07. The price has since fallen -6.89% to $2597.88.

Bitcoin's sprint to the topside continued today with the price reaching above $90,000 for the first time ever and just 2-days after breaking above the $80,000 level. The high price reached $90,243. The price has come off that lofty level and trades at $88,092.

Japanese wholesale prices, the PPI or CGPI:

+0.2% m/m

• expected 0.0%, prior 0.0%

+3.4% y/y

• expected +3.0%, prior +2.8%

The higher results will be a bit of a tailwind for the yen, at the margin. Not too much though, there is the huge monetary policy divergence that is weighing on the hapless yen to contend with.

Of note is that renewed yen falls pushed up import costs for some goods

The Bank of Japan is wary of yen weakness pushing up prices, the Bank wants inflation but not like that. The Bank wants inflation coming from wage growth pushing up demand. The Bank has said it'll consider raising rates to help slow or stop the yen decline. But political pressure is on the Bank not to hike until wages are seen rising at the next round of wage negotiations in (Japan's) spring.

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The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI)

• its a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output
• is calculated by the Bank of Japan

Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the price change that consumers see for a basket of goods and services, the CGPI focuses on the change in the prices of goods sold by companies.

The PPI reflects some of cost pressures faced by producers

• its based on a basket of goods that represents the range of products produced within the Japanese economy, including items such as:
  • raw materials like metals and chemicals
  • semi-finished goods
  • and finished products
  • different weights are assigned to each category within the index based on its contribution to the overall economy.
• it does not account for the quality improvements in goods and services over time, which might lead to overestimation of inflation
  • additionally, it reflects only the prices of domestically produced goods, leaving out the impact of imported goods

The PPI can be used as a guide to inflationary pressures in the economy:

• If producers are facing higher costs, they may pass these on to consumers, leading to higher consumer prices.

Australia data - Wage Price Index for Q3 2024:

+0.8% q/q for the third consecutive quarter

• expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%
• Both the private sector and the public sector rose 0.8%, seasonally adjusted, for the quarter.

+3.5% y/y, lowest annual rise for the series since December quarter 2022 and followed four consecutive quarters of annual wage growth equal to or above 4%.

• expected +3.6%, prior +4.1%

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes the Wage Price Index (WPI) quarterly, measuring changes in the price of labor, unaffected by shifts in workforce composition, hours worked, or employee characteristics.

The ABS provides detailed WPI data, including breakdowns by industry and sector, offering insights into wage trends across Australia's economy.

CreationNetwork.ai, a groundbreaking digital platform, today announces its public launch, redefining digital engagement for businesses, content creators, and influencers. As an all-in-one solution for content creation, e-commerce, social media management, and digital marketing, CreationNetwork.ai combines 22+ proprietary AI-powered tools and 29+ platform integrations to deliver the most extensive digital ecosystem available.

Empowering Digital Transformation with 22+ AI-Powered Tools

CreationNetwork.ai’s suite of tools spans every facet of digital engagement, equipping users with powerful AI technologies to streamline operations, engage audiences, and optimize performance. Each tool is meticulously designed to enhance productivity and efficiency, making it easy to create, manage, and analyze content across multiple channels. Key tools include:

• AI Copywriter: Generates high-quality, unique content for blogs, social media, and business communications.
• AI Page Maker: Simplifies landing page creation with zero design or coding knowledge.
• AI Trend Briefs: Provides market insights and trends, positioning users at the forefront of innovation.
• AI Bot Maker: Creates intelligent chatbots for seamless user interaction and customer support.
• AI Video Maker: Produces captivating, brand-aligned promotional videos.
• AI Video Ambassador: Transforms text scripts into spokesperson videos with customizable avatars.
• AI Voiceovers Studio: Offers lifelike voiceovers in multiple languages and accents.
• AI SmartVoice Replicator: Clones voices to maintain brand consistency across content.
• AI Voice Modifier: Enhances voice recordings, elevating audio quality effortlessly.
• AI SmartTranscriber: Converts audio into text with accuracy, ideal for transcription and subtitles.
• AI Design Studio: Enables professional-quality graphic creation without design skills.
• AI BrandMagic: Instantly creates essential brand assets like logos and business cards.
• AI Banners: Tailors banners for digital platforms and campaigns.
• Art Academy - Image Genius: Allows text-to-image transformation, animations, and editing with AI.
• Social Metrics Analytics: Offers detailed insights on social media performance metrics.
• Social SmartEngagement: Increases engagement through targeted AI-driven insights.
• Social PublishMaster: Automates social publishing with optimized timing and platform synchronization.
• Social Listen Monitor: Tracks brand mentions and audience sentiment across social media.
• Social Automation Optimize: Automates repetitive tasks, improving workflow and engagement.
• Social CollaborationPro: Fosters team collaboration, managing content creation and approval processes.
• AI & Automation: Integrates AI-driven insights across content creation, engagement, and analytics.
• Team-Powered Branding: Amplifies brand messaging through employee advocacy.

Each of these tools is designed to optimize digital engagement, reduce manual workload, and enable users to focus on impactful, strategic actions. CreationNetwork.ai’s suite harnesses the transformative power of AI and blockchain, fostering both creativity and precision.

Comprehensive Integration Network: 29+ Platform Connections for Maximum Reach

One of the most distinguishing features of CreationNetwork.ai is its extensive integration network. With over 29 integrations, users can synchronize their digital activities across major social media, e-commerce, and content platforms, providing centralized management and engagement capabilities.

Social Media Integrations: Facebook, X (Twitter), Instagram, LinkedIn, Pinterest, TikTok, YouTube, WhatsApp, Telegram, Discord, and Snapchat.

E-commerce Integrations: Google Business Profile, Shopify, WooCommerce, Etsy, BigCommerce, Ecwid, and Wix Commerce, supporting online retailers with seamless inventory and order management.

Content Creation Integrations: Canva, Grammarly, Airtable, Zapier, Make, Adobe Express, Unsplash, Giphy, Pexels, Pixabay, and Dropbox allow users to access resources for content creation and file management without leaving the CreationNetwork.ai platform.

This integration network empowers users to manage their brand presence across platforms from a single, unified dashboard, significantly enhancing efficiency and reach.

Community Incentives: CRNT Token Airdrop and ICO Whitelisting

In preparation for its Initial Coin Offering (ICO), CreationNetwork.ai is launching a $750,000 CRNT Token Airdrop to reward early supporters and incentivize participation in the CreationNetwork.ai ecosystem. Qualified participants can secure their position by following CreationNetwork.ai’s social media accounts and completing the whitelist form available on the official website. This initiative highlights CreationNetwork.ai’s commitment to building a strong, engaged community.

CreationNetwork.ai: The Future of Digital Content and Marketing

CreationNetwork.ai is also a comprehensive digital ecosystem for businesses, creators, and marketers. Combining the power of AI and blockchain, CreationNetwork.ai redefines how users manage their digital presence, from crafting content to engaging with audiences across diverse channels. Its suite of tools, extensive integrations, and commitment to community-building make CreationNetwork.ai a leading solution for digital transformation.

“CreationNetwork.ai is built to set a new benchmark in digital engagement,” said Ali Demir, CEO of CreationNetwork.ai. “We’re providing creators and businesses with an all-encompassing solution that combines innovative AI, deep platform integrations, and automation. Our platform is truly one of a kind, empowering users to harness the full potential of digital technology.”

About CreationNetwork.ai

CreationNetwork.ai (https://creationnetwork.ai/) is a leader in AI-driven content creation, social media management, and e-commerce solutions, leveraging blockchain technology to empower its users with advanced digital engagement tools. Through a broad spectrum of AI tools and extensive integrations, CreationNetwork.ai is dedicated to transforming the way brands, businesses, and creators connect with audiences in an ever-evolving digital world.

Deribit, the world’s premier Bitcoin and Ethereum options exchange, in partnership with SignalPlus, a leading options trading dashboard and analytics hub, is excited to unveil the second edition of the Winter Trading Competition 2024.

This year's competition offers participants a $200,000 USDC prize pool, along with various prizes such as iPhones, PlayStation 5s, and other rewards. Additionally, participants will benefit from valuable learning opportunities and insightful trading sessions designed to enhance their skills and strategies, making this the biggest and most rewarding crypto trading contest of the year.

The Winter Trading Competition 2024 is open to all retail participants who utilize their Deribit accounts to trade cryptocurrency options, futures and spot on the SignalPlus platform. Registrations are open and will remain open until December 9th 2024. The competition begins today November 4th to December 9th, 2024, spanning 35 days of intense trading action.

US Election Registration Bonus As an added incentive, traders who register by November 5 will receive a US Election Option, available as part of a limited-time bonus. Registrations remain open until December 9, 2024.

Luuk Strijers, Chief Executive Officer at Deribit, “We’re thrilled to launch the second edition of our trading competition in collaboration with SignalPlus. Following the remarkable success of last year’s iteration, we are excited to raise the bar even higher this time. The growth and enthusiasm we witnessed have inspired us to expand the competition, offering even more opportunities for participants to showcase and expand their skills.”

Competition Highlights:

• Prizes and Rewards: Compete in both individual and team categories, with special bonuses for team leaders and daily prize draws.
• Referral Program: Up to 10,000 USDC in rewards is available through a referral program for inviting others to register and trade on Deribit.
• Sign-Up Incentives : Bonuses are available for all registrations, first trades, and inviting friends, with participants eligible for prizes that range from cash rewards to tech products.
• Luxury and Variety: Participants have the chance to win various rewards, including iPhone 16s, iPads, Apple Watches, cash prizes in USDC, and travel to Thailand.
• Prestigious Recognition: Top individual winners will earn honorary certificates, while winning teams will take home trophies.
• Learning opportunities: Participants will also gain access to six master-level options AMAs (Ask Me Anything sessions) and Deribit’s product training hosted by industry experts, available absolutely free. These sessions are designed to elevate trading skills.

Chris Yu, Co-Founder of SignalPlus, added: “We’re excited to collaborate with Deribit on this landmark trading competition. At SignalPlus, our mission is to enhance the trading experience through innovation, and this event reflects that commitment. By combining our advanced technology with Deribit’s robust platform, we’re offering participants an unparalleled opportunity to engage with crypto options in fresh, dynamic ways, pushing the boundaries of strategy and skill.”

Competition Rules and Rewards:

• Individual Race: Individual participants will compete through semi-final and final stages, with prizes awarded to the top 35 traders. The highest-ranking trader will earn up to 5,000 USDC.
• Team Contest: The top five teams will win prizes ranging from 1,000 to 5,000 USDC. Additionally, each day for 35 days, one team member will win a luxurious trip to Thailand.
• Daily Draws: For 35 consecutive days, 111 lucky participants will win cash rewards daily.
• Daily Lucky Ranks: Every day, 9 special traders will receive prizes ranging from 10 to 300 USDC.
• Extra Incentives: Over 10,000 bonus prizes are available for registering, inviting friends, and making your first trade – the rewards keep flowing!

Key Details:

• Prize Pool: 200,000 USDC.
• Registration Period: October 23rd – December 9th, 2024.
• Competition Period: November 4th – December 9th, 2024.

Seize the opportunity to compete with top traders globally and start your journey toward exciting prizes today!

About Deribit

Deribit (https://www.deribit.com/) is a centralized, institutional-grade crypto derivatives exchange for options and futures trading. With state-of-the-art infrastructure, Deribit offers instantaneous price discovery, low-latency trading, advanced risk mitigation services, and deep liquidity through a network of top-tier market makers. Led by a team with decades of experience in options trading across all markets, Deribit facilitates a significant majority of all crypto options trading and adheres to robust proof of assets and liabilities procedures to ensure the highest standards.

About SignalPlus

SignalPlus provides a world-class options trading dashboard that covers risk tracking, profit/loss attribution, strike and theta analysis. Users can execute multi-legged orders with embedded algorithms to minimize slippage and conduct in-depth profit/loss and exposure assessments using simulation tools and scenario analysis. SignalPlus also automates delta hedging across varying market conditions and offers real-time trade notifications through Telegram, empowering traders with the insights and tools needed for successful trading.

All eyes will be on the United States on Tuesday, 5 November 2024, as the world awaits the outcome of the contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. With the countdown clock to the 2024 US elections beginning to tick down towards polling day, markets are starting to brace themselves for what is yet to come.

Key Volatility Factors

The sharp differences between Harris' and Trump's policy platforms are creating an atmosphere of market volatility, as investors may be unsure which sectors stand to be affected by the outcome of this neck-and-neck race.

Beyond the presidency, control of Congress—both the House and Senate—plays a crucial role in determining policy outcomes and potential market reactions. Historically, markets have trended upward across presidential terms, yet analysts suggest that a divided government, where different parties control the presidency and Congress, may be optimal for market stability.

Understanding underlying market dynamics is crucial for those entering the online trading arena, and as the U.S. election on 5 November approaches, market volatility is reaching new heights, creating both risks and opportunities for traders. To help navigate this turbulent landscape, Plus500 offers a wealth of resources through its Trading Academy, including US election webinars, tutorials, eBooks, analysis, and up-to-date news articles.

These tools equip traders with the knowledge to better understand market dynamics and the potential impact of political developments on their trading strategies. In this uncertain environment, well-informed traders who grasp key concepts and trends might be better-placed to adapt to sudden price movements that could arise from unexpected election outcomes, although results are never guaranteed with trading.

The Economic Issues Driving the 2024 Election

The 2024 U.S. elections bring critical economic issues to the fore, with tax, trade, and energy policies as central themes. Donald Trump has proposed further corporate tax cuts to stimulate growth, particularly in manufacturing, energy, and technology, which may boost equity markets in the short term, but could increase federal deficits. Kamala Harris, on the other hand, supports targeted tax incentives for green sectors while proposing higher corporate taxes for social initiatives, potentially boosting clean energy stocks but affecting traditional sectors.

On trade, Trump has revived his stance on tariffs, particularly towards China, aiming to promote domestic industries. This could benefit U.S. manufacturing but may disrupt tech and consumer goods reliant on international supply chains. Harris's approach, while less aggressive, would aim for targeted tariffs, supporting U.S. interests without risking extensive trade conflicts, which could stabilise sectors sensitive to global markets.

Energy policy reflects another stark partisan contrast. Trump advocates for expanding fossil fuel production to reduce energy costs and inflation, which would likely favour traditional energy stocks. Harris's clean energy approach seeks to boost renewables like solar and wind, supporting sustainability-focused sectors, although it may come with initial cost implications for energy markets.

Potential Market Risks: Volatility, Fed Policy, and Foreign Relations

Market volatility could increase with trade and energy policy shifts, especially if Trump’s proposed tariffs amplify tensions with China. Retaliatory tariffs could hurt agriculture and technology exports, heightening risks in indices tied to these sectors. In contrast, Harris’s more moderate approach might result in steadier markets, benefiting industries with international exposure.

Monetary policy remains critical, with Trump favouring lower rates to spur growth, risking inflation if the Federal Reserve complies. Harris supports the Fed’s independence, suggesting more stable monetary policy with potential benefits for long-term economic stability.

Foreign relations also play a role, particularly concerning China and other trade partners. Trump’s tariff plans could heighten international tensions, whereas Harris’s approach is seen as less confrontational, benefiting multinational corporations and stabilising revenue streams from abroad, particularly in tech and healthcare.

Markets Affected by the US Election

In addition to concrete economic sectors that are seeing the impact of election season volatility, certain corners of the market are seeing ups and downs as well:

Forex & USD

The US dollar’s performance has fluctuated under different administrations, and the stakes are high this time around. A Republican victory could send the dollar soaring, fuelled by aggressive trade policies and rising interest rates, potentially strengthening it against the euro. On the flip side, if a Democrat takes the helm, analysts predict a softer dollar due to reduced fiscal expansion and declining real interest rates, which could benefit the euro in the EUR/USD pair. As election day approaches, volatility could be heightened, including on platforms like Plus500.

Commodities

The commodities market is already making waves. Rising geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, are already influencing oil prices, and any further escalations could tighten supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz, potentially driving oil prices up sharply. Precious metals, traditionally seen as safe havens, may attract risk-averse investors amid election uncertainty. If policies post-election signal heightened government spending or inflation concerns, metals like gold and silver could see increased demand, reinforcing their role as hedges in uncertain times.

Trading Election-Related Indices with Plus500

With all of the aforementioned shifts underway, there are unique opportunities to trade on the shifting political landscape through OTC products on specific indices available on Plus500. Notably, these indices reflect the anticipated impact of party control on various sectors, enabling diverse trading strategies.

● The US Democrats in Power Index (BUDIPI) tracks companies poised to thrive under Democratic governance. This index is weighted by Free-Float Market Capitalization, meaning larger companies have a greater influence. Investors can look to sectors such as clean energy, healthcare, and technology, which are expected to benefit from policies likely to be enacted by a Democratic administration.

● Conversely, the US Republicans in Power Index (BURIPI) focuses on firms that are projected to gain from Republican leadership. The BURIPI index encompasses companies in the energy, defence, and financial sectors, reflecting potential tax cuts, deregulation, and increased military spending that could arise from a Republican victory.

● Additionally, traders can explore the Trumpnomics Index (BTRUIN), which specifically tracks businesses that may flourish under former President Trump’s economic policies. This index captures the performance of companies in industries such as fossil fuels, manufacturing, and infrastructure, which Trump has historically supported.

Riding the Volatility Wave

In the build-up to polling day, the potential for market volatility presents exciting trading opportunities as well as accompanying risks. With access to a wide range of OTC instruments and learning resources, Plus500 equips traders to potentially better navigate the uncertainties and ride the waves of uncertain global markets.

About Plus500

Plus500 is a global multi-asset fintech group operating proprietary technology-based trading platforms. Plus500 offers customers a range of trading products, including OTC (“Over-the-Counter” products, namely Contracts for Difference (CFDs)), share dealing, as well as futures and options on futures.

The Group retains operating licences and is regulated in the United Kingdom, Australia, Cyprus, Israel, New Zealand, South Africa, Singapore, the Seychelles, the United States, Estonia, Japan, the UAE and the Bahamas and through its OTC product portfolio, offers more than 2,500 different underlying global financial instruments, comprising equities, indices, commodities, options, ETFs, foreign exchange and cryptocurrencies. Customers of the Group can trade its OTC products in more than 60 countries and in 30 languages.

Plus500’s trading platforms are accessible from multiple operating systems (iOS, Android and Windows) and web browsers. Customer care is, and has always been, integral to Plus500. As such, OTC customers cannot be subject to negative balances. A free demo account is available on an unlimited basis for OTC trading platform users and sophisticated risk management tools are provided free of charge to manage leveraged exposure, and stop losses to help customers protect profits, while limiting capital losses.

Plus500 shares have a premium listing on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange (symbol: PLUS) and are a constituent of the FTSE 250 index. https://www.plus500.com/.

SP Negócios, São Paulo’s investment and export promotion agency, has partnered with Polkadot to foster innovation among companies in São Paulo.

Driven by the growing market demand, Polkadot is increasingly positioning itself as an ally for businesses looking to grow in an innovative, secure, and transparent way. It has been sponsoring educational initiatives through Código Brazuca. Thanks to this, companies and citizens in São Paulo will have access to blockchain programming training through Código Brazuca's content starting in December. This will be possible through the partnership established with Polkadot / Sunset Labs and São Paulo’s investment and export promotion agency, SP Negócios.

“The partnership between Polkadot and SP Negócios will contribute to the training of Blockchain Programmers and is open to bringing technology to companies in São Paulo, whether they are startups, small and medium-sized enterprises, or large corporations seeking to invest in or adopt the technology,” says Gustavo J. Massena, Decentralized Business Developer at Polkadot.

The program is free and will be available online, open to companies in São Paulo. Registrations will soon be available through SP Negócios, and no prior qualifications are required.

The partnership with Polkadot is part of SP Negócios’s strategy to boost the business environment within the crypto economy sector, reinforcing São Paulo as a hub of technology and innovation. Blockchain plays a transformative role in various areas, including decentralized finance, asset tokenization, NFTs, and more. By promoting the training of qualified professionals, SP Negócios seeks to attract investments, foster new startups, and solidify the city as a reference in adopting and developing blockchain-based solutions.

About SP Negócios

SP Negócios (https://spnegocios.com/) is an autonomous social service aimed at boosting investments and business in São Paulo. It is linked to the Municipal Secretariat of Economic Development and Employment. The goal is to help São Paulo-based companies conduct more business through exports, innovation and technology, public sector engagement, and improvement of the business environment.

About Polkadot

Polkadot is an open-source, multichain sharing protocol that facilitates the transfer of any type of data or asset, not just tokens, between networks, making a wide range of blockchains interoperable.

Since its founding in 2004, Dukascopy has grown into a trusted, innovative leader in the fintech and online trading space, providing clients with advanced tools and a stable platform for smart financial decisions.

Over the past 20 years, Dukascopy has reached major milestones that reflect its core values of stability, innovation, and putting clients first. From its proprietary JForex platform to the popular MT4 and MT5, Dukascopy offers a variety of trading platforms along with modern neo-banking services for both individuals, businesses, and institutions. The bank has also led the way in technology upgrades with White Label and banking-as-a-platform solutions.

As Dr.Andre Duka, Dukascopy’s founder, says, "Innovation has always been at the heart of what we do. We aim to continue delivering these high standards into the future. Thank you, our clients, for choosing us for these 20 years."

Currently, Dukascopy (https://dukascopy.click/agw) proudly serves over 400,000 clients across both trading and banking services. This commitment to delivering cutting-edge solutions, backed by Swiss-grade stability, has allowed the company to maintain long-term relationships with clients, many of whom have been trading and banking with Dukascopy for decades.

As the company looks toward the future, Dukascopy remains focused on empowering traders and banking clients, expecting significant growth of its client base across all segments, from trading to neo-banking, corporate to white-label services.