the Prediction markets and the need for “dumb money” as well as “smart money” By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Fri, 25 Oct 2024 13:01:08 +0000 tl;dr. Prediction markets give good forecasts because they attract “smart money” that will fix any gaps between current odds and best available information. The “smart money” is in turn motivated by the profits they can take from “dumb money” coming … Continue reading → Full Article Decision Analysis Economics Political Science
the “Reduce likelihood of a tick bite by 73.6 times”? Forking paths on the Appalachian Trail. By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Sun, 27 Oct 2024 13:09:07 +0000 Shira writes: As an Appalachian Trail hiker, I always treat my clothes with permethrin. I’m a big fan of Sawyer products, but this claim caught my eye: Reduce likelihood of a tick bite by 73.6 times by treating shoes and … Continue reading → Full Article Miscellaneous Statistics Multilevel Modeling Public Health Zombies
the Freakonomics does it again (not in a good way). Jeez, these guys are credulous: By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Mon, 28 Oct 2024 13:43:21 +0000 From the team that brought you “good-looking parents are 36% more likely to have a baby daughter as their first child than a baby son” and “The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually … Continue reading → Full Article Miscellaneous Science Sociology Zombies
the A question for Nate Cohn at the New York Times regarding a claim about adjusting polls using recalled past vote By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Tue, 29 Oct 2024 01:38:12 +0000 A colleague writes: Have you seen this article by Nate Cohn at the New York Times? A few things in it seemed weird. For one, he writes: The tendency for recall vote to overstate the winner of the last election … Continue reading → Full Article Political Science
the Props to the liberal anticommunists of the 1930s-1950s By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Tue, 29 Oct 2024 13:29:35 +0000 In the 1930s and 1940s, there were many prominent communist sympathizers: leading scientists such as J. B. S. Haldane and J. Robert Oppenheimer, powerful labor leaders, influential intellectuals, and various popular-front politicians, including at one period the vice-president of the … Continue reading → Full Article Political Science
the Stan Playground: Run Stan on the web, play with your program and data at will, and no need to download anything on your computer By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Thu, 31 Oct 2024 13:03:45 +0000 Just in time for Halloween, we have a scarily effective implementation of Stan on the web, full of a veritable haunted house of delicious treats. Brian Ward, Jeff Soules, and Jeremy Magland write: Stan Playground is a new open-source, browser-based … Continue reading → Full Article Bayesian Statistics Stan Statistical Computing Teaching
the “Trivia question for you. I kept temperature records for 100 days one year in Boston, starting August 15th (day “0”). What would you guess is the correlation between day# and temp? r=???” By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Fri, 01 Nov 2024 13:18:03 +0000 Shane Frederick writes: Trivia question for you. I kept temperature records for 100 days one year in Boston, starting August 15th (day “0”). What would you guess is the correlation between day# and temp? r=??? Shane sends me this kind … Continue reading → Full Article Miscellaneous Statistics Teaching
the Violent science teacher makes ridiculously unsupported research claims, gets treated by legislatures/courts/media as expert on the effects of homeschooling By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Sun, 03 Nov 2024 14:56:37 +0000 Paul Alper shares this horrifying news story by Laura Meckler: Brian Ray has spent the last three decades as one of the nation’s top evangelists for home schooling. As a researcher, he has published studies purporting to show that these … Continue reading → Full Article Causal Inference Sociology Teaching Zombies
the Should pollsters preregister their design, data collection, and analyses? By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Sun, 03 Nov 2024 22:40:12 +0000 There are actually two questions here: 1. Should pollsters share all the information on their design, data collection, and analyses? 2. If yes on question 1 above, should this information be made public ahead of time, before the survey is … Continue reading → Full Article Miscellaneous Science Political Science Sociology
the Probabilistic numerics and the folk theorem of statistical computing By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Mon, 04 Nov 2024 14:15:08 +0000 U.S. election day is tomorrow. So let’s talk about something else: 1. Encoding prior information using non-generative modeling I was talking with Hong Ge about the uses of non-generative models in probabilistic programming. An example I gave is the use … Continue reading → Full Article Bayesian Statistics Stan Statistical Computing
the What if the polls are right? (some scatterplots, and some comparisons to vote swings in past decades) By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Tue, 05 Nov 2024 02:58:23 +0000 There’s a lot of talk about how the polls can go wrong. Fair enough—I wrote an article a few years ago on failure and success in political polling and election forecasting, and a few years before that, Julia Azari and … Continue reading → Full Article Political Science
the That day in 1977 when Jerzy Neyman committed the methodological attribution fallacy. By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Wed, 06 Nov 2024 14:15:44 +0000 (Before going on, please read the last sentence of the P.P.S. below to put this post in context.) Blake McShane points us to this 1977 article, “Frequentist Probability and Frequentist Statistics,” by Jerzy Neyman, the statistician who made fundamental contributions … Continue reading → Full Article Miscellaneous Statistics Zombies
the Reflections on the recent election By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Wed, 06 Nov 2024 20:29:12 +0000 These are my quick thoughts. I’m sure I’ve missed a lot, so feel free to add your perspectives in comments. 1. The outcome In 2016, Hillary Clinton narrowly won the popular vote and lost in the electoral college. In 2020 … Continue reading → Full Article Political Science
the Fake data on the honeybee waggle dance, followed by the inevitable “It is important to note that the conclusions of our studies remain firm and sound.” By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Thu, 07 Nov 2024 14:26:28 +0000 I hadn’t thought about bee dancing for a long time, when someone pointed me to this post by Laura Luebbert and Lior Pachter on a bit of data fraud in biology. Luebbert writes: Four years ago, during the first year … Continue reading → Full Article Miscellaneous Science Sociology Zombies
the The Red Sox are hiring By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Thu, 07 Nov 2024 17:00:01 +0000 Here’s another job opportunity for baseball enthusiasts and Stan users! The Boston Red Sox are building out their R&D group and are currently hiring for the position of Senior Analyst, Baseball Analytics. Although the listed qualifications don’t specifically mention Stan, … Continue reading → Full Article Sports Stan
the Bad science as genre fiction: I think there’s a lot to be said for this analogy! By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Fri, 08 Nov 2024 14:19:54 +0000 I came across this blog comment from a couple years ago saying that, whatever was going on in the head of Brian “Pizzagate” Wansink when he wrote up those papers with the fake data, in any case his papers papers … Continue reading → Full Article Literature Miscellaneous Science Zombies
the Two spans of the bridge of inference By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Fri, 08 Nov 2024 17:22:17 +0000 This is Jessica. Larry Hedges relayed a quote to me recently that I thought others here might appreciate. It appears in an old Annals of Mathematical Statistics paper by Tukey and Cornfield: In almost any practical situation where analytical statistics … Continue reading → Full Article Miscellaneous Science Miscellaneous Statistics Sociology
the If you wanted to be a top tennis player in the late 1930s, there was a huge benefit to being a member of ____. Or to being named ____. By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Fri, 08 Nov 2024 18:25:37 +0000 This post is by Phil. A couple of months ago, this blog had a discussion that was prompted by the fact that 2 of the top 5 female American tennis players are the children of billionaires. One, that could be … Continue reading → Full Article Sports sports tennis
the Polling by asking people about their neighbors: When does this work? Should people be doing more of it? And the connection to that French dude who bet on Trump By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Sat, 09 Nov 2024 14:11:07 +0000 Several people pointed me to this news report on a successful bettor in an election prediction market: Not only did he see Donald Trump winning the presidency, he wagered that Trump would win the popular vote—an outcome that many political … Continue reading → Full Article Miscellaneous Statistics Political Science Sociology
the Specification curve analysis and the multiverse By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Tue, 12 Nov 2024 14:31:52 +0000 I just learned about this paper from 2020, Specification curve analysis, by Uri Simonsohn, Joseph Simmons, and Leif Nelson: Empirical results hinge on analytical decisions that are defensible, arbitrary and motivated. These decisions probably introduce bias (towards the narrative put … Continue reading → Full Article Miscellaneous Statistics Multilevel Modeling Sociology Zombies
the [Surnetkids] Mother’s Day Cards By www.surfnetkids.com Published On :: Wed, 10 May 2023 01:09:59 +0000 Dear Reader, Wishing you and yours a very Happy Mother’s Day! See ya on the Net, Barbara J. Feldman “Surfing the Net with Kids” https://www.surfnetkids.com Mother’s Day Cards https://www.surfnetkids.com/resources/mothers-day-cards/ Mother’s Day Cards Printable(** for Premium Members only) https://www.surfnetkids.com/printables/files/printables-club/mothers_day_cards.pdf The history […] The post [Surnetkids] Mother’s Day Cards appeared first on Newsletters » Surfnetkids. Full Article Newsletters
the Year of the Ox By www.surfnetkids.com Published On :: Tue, 12 Jan 2021 10:21:21 +0000 The post Year of the Ox appeared first on Coloring Pages » Surfnetkids. Full Article Chinese New Year
the Year of the Cat By www.surfnetkids.com Published On :: Sat, 01 Jan 2022 10:20:42 +0000 The post Year of the Cat appeared first on Coloring Pages » Surfnetkids. Full Article Big Cats Chinese New Year
the Year of the Rabbit By www.surfnetkids.com Published On :: Thu, 22 Dec 2022 10:19:55 +0000 The post Year of the Rabbit appeared first on Coloring Pages » Surfnetkids. Full Article Bunny and Rabbit Chinese New Year
the Year of the Dragon By www.surfnetkids.com Published On :: Wed, 10 Jan 2024 10:19:17 +0000 The post Year of the Dragon appeared first on Coloring Pages » Surfnetkids. Full Article Chinese New Year Dragon
the Be the Change: Celebrating Down Syndrome Awareness Month By joniandfriends.org Published On :: Thu, 31 Oct 2024 07:00:00 +0000 I love October. Crisp mornings and hot cider help me welcome autumn. Change is in the air—you can feel it. One of my very favorite things about October... Full Article Advocacy Hope & Inspiration Inspiration Stories
the Joni Eareckson Tada honored by the Museum of the Bible By joniandfriends.org Published On :: Sat, 02 Nov 2024 22:00:00 +0000 Christian author, speaker, and disability advocate Joni Eareckson Tada was honored with the Pillar Award for History by the Museum of the Bible... Full Article Press Release
the Christ Jesus Came into the World to Save Sinners By joniandfriends.org Published On :: Tue, 12 Nov 2024 08:00:00 +0000 I was completely at a loss when, in 1980, I was asked to create a completely unique and original work of art for a Billy Graham... Full Article From Our Founder Joni's Artwork Joni's Posts
the Consolidation thesis – rawgraphs in the academy By densitydesign.org Published On :: Wed, 06 Apr 2022 10:20:12 +0000 RAWGraphs is used in many academic resources. In many of... more Full Article
the Suggested reading: Hallnäs, L., & Redström, J. (2002). From use to presence: On the expressions and aesthetics of everyday computational things. By densitydesign.org Published On :: Mon, 18 Jul 2022 13:38:47 +0000 When investigating how we frame technology in the design process,... more Full Article Uncategorized critical design suggested reading
the Recap of the “Gephi Week” at SciencePo: inquiring the community detection algorithm of Gephi By densitydesign.org Published On :: Wed, 07 Sep 2022 07:33:23 +0000 The CNRS, the Gephi Consortium and the University of Aalborg... more Full Article Design Reading
the New Starter Site for Estheticians (Quick Install) By www.elegantthemes.com Published On :: Tue, 12 Nov 2024 16:00:53 +0000 Divi empowers you to build the best websites possible, and now, Divi Quick Sites takes website creation to a whole new level. This revolutionary tool lets anyone, regardless of skill level, generate a complete website in under two minutes! Divi Quick Sites provides everything you need to launch your dream website instantly. You can choose […] The post New Starter Site for Estheticians (Quick Install) appeared first on Elegant Themes Blog. Full Article Divi Resources Divi freebie Divi Layout Pack Divi Starter Site divi theme builder pack
the The Most Important Unsolved Problem in Computer Science By www.scientificamerican.com Published On :: Fri, 22 Dec 2023 13:00:00 GMT Here’s a look at the $1-million math problem at the heart of computation Full Article Advances Math Computing
the Inside Mathematicians' Search for the Mysterious 'Einstein Tile' By www.scientificamerican.com Published On :: Fri, 22 Dec 2023 14:00:00 GMT The quest for the einstein tile—a shape never seen before in mathematics—turned up even more discoveries than mathematicians counted on Full Article Features Math Mathematics
the Podcasts of the Year: Cleo, the Mysterious Math Menace By www.scientificamerican.com Published On :: Fri, 29 Dec 2023 20:55:00 GMT In 2013 a new user named Cleo took an online math forum by storm with unproved answers. Today she’s an urban legend. But who was she? A 2023 editor's pick. Full Article Math Mathematics
the AI Matches the Abilities of the Best Math Olympians By www.scientificamerican.com Published On :: Wed, 17 Jan 2024 16:00:00 GMT Until now computers have failed to solve mathematical problems. But the AI program AlphaGeometry has succeeded in finding proofs for dozens of theorems from the International Mathematical Olympiad Full Article Math Technology Artificial Intelligence
the This Nomadic Eccentric Was the Most Prolific Mathematician in History By www.scientificamerican.com Published On :: Wed, 24 Jan 2024 11:45:00 GMT The bizarre life and legacy of Paul Erdős, the most prolific mathematician ever Full Article Math Mathematics Culture
the A Wild Claim about the Powers of Pi Creates a Transcendental Mystery By www.scientificamerican.com Published On :: Wed, 24 Jan 2024 15:00:00 GMT Mathematicians cannot determine whether multiplying pi by itself repeatedly might produce a whole number Full Article Math Mathematics
the These Numbers Look Random but Aren't, Mathematicians Prove By www.scientificamerican.com Published On :: Tue, 30 Jan 2024 12:00:00 GMT A new mathematical proof helps show whether a sequence of numbers is “pseudorandom” Full Article Math Mathematics Technology
the Tomorrow's Quantum Computers Threaten Today's Secrets. Here's How to Protect Them By www.scientificamerican.com Published On :: Tue, 30 Jan 2024 14:00:00 GMT Researchers are racing to create codes so complex that even quantum computers can’t break them Full Article Features Math Mathematics
the How String Theory Solved Math's Monstrous Moonshine Problem By www.scientificamerican.com Published On :: Mon, 05 Feb 2024 13:00:00 GMT A concept from theoretical physics helped confirm the strange connection between two completely different areas of mathematics Full Article Math Mathematics
the Surreal Numbers Are a Real Thing. Here's How to Make Them By www.scientificamerican.com Published On :: Wed, 14 Feb 2024 12:00:00 GMT In the 1970s mathematicians found a simple way to create all numbers, from the infinitely small to infinitely large Full Article Math Mathematics
the The Strangely Serious Implications of Math's 'Ham Sandwich Theorem' By www.scientificamerican.com Published On :: Sat, 17 Feb 2024 13:00:00 GMT A simple solution to gerrymandering crumbles when confronted with math’s ‘ham sandwich theorem’ Full Article Math Mathematics
the The Decimal Point Is 150 Years Older than Historians Thought By www.scientificamerican.com Published On :: Tue, 20 Feb 2024 19:00:00 GMT The origin of the decimal point, a powerful calculation tool, has been traced back to a mathematician who lived during the Italian Renaissance Full Article Math Mathematics Social Sciences History
the Finding the rare sandhills cellophane bee – with data By blog.wfsu.org Published On :: Tue, 07 May 2024 18:59:15 +0000 We use iNaturalist data to help find the sandhills cellophane bee. Researchers are looking for nesting sites for the rare bee. Full Article Longleaf Pine & Fire Ecology Pollinators and Gardening Wildlife in North Florida- Critters Big and Small Florida native bees iNaturalist sandhills habitat
the The unrecognizable ice age Wacissa: Revisiting Ryan-Harley By blog.wfsu.org Published On :: Mon, 28 Oct 2024 14:21:47 +0000 At the Ryan-Harley site, archeologists reconstruct the ice age landscape of the Wacissa River, where early Floridians left artifacts. Full Article Archaeology Paleontology History and Indigenous Cultures Archeology Aucilla/ Wacissa Watershed Bruce Means Harley Means Morgan Smith Ryan Means Ryan-Harley Site Suwannee culture Wacissa River Wacissa River. archeology
the Judge Must Determine Whether to Penalize Employer's Refusal to Pay for Pot By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Tue, 21 May 2024 00:00:00 -0700 A Pennsylvania appellate court on Monday ordered a workers’ compensation judge to determine whether an employer should be penalized for failing to reimburse an injured worker for medical cannabis. The Commonwealth… Full Article
the Employer Can't Join Other Parties to Share Potential Liability for Fatal Claim By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Tue, 18 Jun 2024 00:00:00 -0700 The Commonwealth Court of Pennsylvania upheld an administrative decision finding that an employer could not join another entity and its insurance carrier as liable parties for a worker’s fatal accident. Case:… Full Article
the Court Rejects Another Repetitive Challenge to Constitutionality of IRE Process By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Wed, 28 Aug 2024 00:00:00 -0700 The Commonwealth Court of Pennsylvania rejected another repetitive challenge to the constitutionality of the state's new impairment rating evaluation process. Case: Miles v. City of Philadelphia (WCAB), No. 1111 C.D. 2023,… Full Article
the Pharmacy and Therapeutics Committee Meets Oct. 16 By ww3.workcompcentral.com Published On :: Fri, 04 Oct 2024 00:00:00 -0700 The California Division of Workers’ Compensation Pharmacy and Therapeutics Committee is meeting virtually on Oct. 16. The 2015 bill that directed the DWC to create a prescription drug formulary also created… Full Article
