Hey Folks,

Well our system moving in next week still has plenty of question marks around it. The main issue is the actual track the system will take... which the models really can't seem to get a handle on.

-Gone seems to be the idea that system will track up through Quebec and Western Labrador. That would have drawn a ton of warm air in from the South bumping up temperatures.... maybe to double digits... with some rain as well. However the models have completely backed off on that theory.

-Now the thinking seems to be either a) A track right through Newfoundland b) A Track just East of Newfoundland or c) A track completely to the Southeast of the Island... missing us completely.

A or B.

This scenario would be messy. Some light Snow mixed with Rain coming in on Tuesday along the Warm front of this system before it backs right in on top of us on Wednesday and into Thursday.
As I mentioned yesterday the more Easterly track would allow Cold air to wrap in behind this system and help produce Snow.
If the GFS run you're looking at above came true... we would be looking a huge shot of Snow for Central and parts of Western Newfoundland.

C.

This would be the most popular pick for many of you I'm sure. The idea here is that the area of High pressure to the Northwest and into Labrador is strong enough to push the system far enough to the Southeast, that is almost completely misses us. We would still see some mixing along the Warm front on Tuesday... but the meat and potatoes would be off shore.

SO WHICH ONE?

So how uncertain are the forecast models right now?

-The GFS American model had the full on Newfoundland Storm idea in it's overnight run. Just 6 hours later it came out with the complete miss scenario. 2 completely different ideas.
-The Canadian model has been bringing the Storm into Newfoundland with on it's last 3 runs.
-The European has been consistently taking the system far enough to the Southeast for a miss.

The good news is... if this system does come in... it's not until Wednesday. So I'll be watching the models closely over the weekend. If I start to see some condenses... I'll drop you a quick line on my facebook and twitter.

http://www.facebook.com/ryan.snoddon
twitter.com/ryansnoddon

Either way, we'll be talking about this on Monday on Here & Now.
Have a great weekend.

Ryan

Hey Folks,

Again, instead of typing away for hours... the best way to get the most information quickly is by posting a video.

A Few Other Points.

-St. John's the Northern Avalon could see that extended period of Freezing Rain from 4 or 5 pm to 7 or 8 pm. Just in time for the drive home... So Be Careful out there.
-Gander, Grand Falls-Windsor and Central Regions will likely see the Snow changing to Ice Pellets and Freezing Rain AFTER 9 pm tonight.
-Corner Brook could see some Freezing Rain late this afternoon and early this evening.

More details on Here & Now Tonight.

See you then.

Ryan

Hey Folks,

This week will be highlighted by a few different things... here are a few points.

-Temperatures will warm up this week... and stay warm(ish). At or above seasonal temperatures will be on the menu for everyone.
-A system marching in from the Southwest today will draw this warm air in... but will also spread Clouds and Showers into Newfoundland for Tuesday and has already spread Snow into Labrador today and into tonight.
-The West Coast of Newfoundland and even into Central could see some Freezing Rain early tomorrow before the Southerly flow warms temps to 5 or 6 degrees.

***4PM UPDATE- Environment Canada has issued a Freezing Warning for Corner Brook, Deer Lake-Humber Valley and Green Bay-White Bay. Model showing a solid period of F.R. starting overnight and continuing throughout the early morning hours. The drive to work could be very icy for you folks in those areas.
-Although Warnings haven't been issued... I think Gros Morne, Parson's Pond-Hawke's Bay could see some Freezing Rain overnight and early tomorrow as well. Bay of Exploits, GFW and Gander could see some Freezing Rain tomorrow morning as well.

-Looks like the Avalon will stay dry on Tuesday as the High pressure moving off to the East will be still be strong enough to keep the Rain away.

LONG RANGE
-Another System will move in on Wednesday and into Thursday. It looks like it too, will have a strong Southerly flow with it, keeping the Precip as mostly Rain for Newfoundland.
-Having said that, the potential will be there again for Freezing Rain and Ice Pellets in the morning and overnight time periods.
-Labrador looks like Snow to start on Wednesday... but the warm air could push in for you folks as well... with a change over to Rain or at least a mix of both for Thursday and into Friday.

EVEN LONGER RANGE
-The models... specifically the GFS... are flirting with a set-up for the weekend... which would bring a very strong push of warm air into the Province just in time for Easter. The set-up... which is still a question mark... would see an area of High pressure anchored to the Southeast with a Low over Northern Quebec and Labrador. If things work out that way... we could see double digit temps creeping into parts of Newfoundland this weekend.

-It would be nice setup for the holiday weekend... let's keep our fingers crossed for now and I'll keep you posted.

Ryan

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