Fundamental Overview

Gold is now down almost 6% from the US election day. That shouldn’t be surprising as the last time we got a red sweep gold dropped by more than 16%.

The reason is that a red sweep brings a more expansionary fiscal policy and should be not only positive for growth but also for inflation.

In fact, the market now sees just two 25 bps rate cuts in 2025 which is already much less than the four projected by the Fed in September.

In the bigger picture, gold remains in a bullish trend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the Fed’s easing cycle, but for now the short-term trend is to the downside due to the repricing in rate cuts expectations.

Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that gold is now trading near the key trendline around the 2600 level. This is where the buyers are stepping in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next trendline around the 2400 level.

Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the strong support zone we have around the 2600 level where there’s the confluence of the previous swing low level and the trendline. We can see that we also have a downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum.

If we get a pullback, the sellers will likely lean on it to position for the break below the major trendline, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high.

Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have another minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. More aggressive sellers might lean on this one to position for the break of the major trendline, while the buyers will look for a break higher to target the pullback into the next downward trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today, we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

See the video below

• There are still noticeable price pressures, especially in services sector
• Trump's tariffs may cause German economy to contract
• If tariffs come into effect, it could cost Germany 1% in economic output

And therein lies the dilemma for the ECB heading into next year I guess. The good news is that the disinflation process is still progressing, albeit with a few bumps along the way. All else being equal, the argument for further rate cuts should hold heading into 2025.

• Headline CPI reading not telling us that underlying inflation dynamics have been vanquished
• Services inflation is pretty sticky
• Energy prices are more likely to go up than down
• Sees more volatility and upward bias to some inflation drivers

Do keep in mind that Mann is arguably the most hawkish member among the BOE policy committee. So, her comments here are not as striking as they might seem to be.

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For some context, these subsidies did come to an end in May but were reinstated in August through to October to cope with the warmer weather. Subsequently, they were continued until this year-end but the funds had to be drawn from reserves in the budget for the fiscal year that started in April.

NHK is now reporting that the government is considering keeping these subsidies from January through to March next year. Amid a higher cost of living in key populated areas such as Tokyo, the measure above is mainly to try and combat rising consumer prices.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – In response to today's violence at the U.S. Capitol Building, the following statement can be attributed to NAB President and CEO Gordon Smith:

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WASHINGTON, DC -- Eight members of the House of Representatives have added their support to a resolution opposing "any new performance fee, tax, royalty, or other charge" on local broadcast radio stations. The Local Radio Freedom Act (LRFA), which signals members of Congress's opposition to any potential legislation that imposes new performance royalties on broadcast radio stations for music airplay, now has 87 cosponsors in the House and eight in the Senate.

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WASHINGTON, D.C. – National Association of Broadcasters President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt was the featured speaker at The Media Institute’s Communications Forum luncheon today.

Washington, D.C. – The 2022 NAB Show will feature NABiQ, a new networking series focused on innovation. Taking place April 23 – 27, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nev., each NABiQ challenge will relate to NAB Show’s content pillars: Create, Connect and Capitalize.

Washington, D.C. -- The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) announced today that Jeremy Sinon, vice president of Digital Strategy for Hubbard Radio, is the recipient of the 2022 Digital Leadership Award. Sinon will be recognized at the 2022 NAB Show, held April 23–27 in Las Vegas.

Washington, D.C. -- The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) will host a Diversity Symposium on Sunday, April 24 from 12:00 – 3:00 p.m. at the 2022 NAB Show in Las Vegas. The symposium, designed to help broadcast organizations develop corporate diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) strategies and embrace diversity in media and the workplace, is open to all NAB Show attendees.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – In response to the Senate Commerce Committee of the Low Power Protection Act, the following statement can be attributed to NAB President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt:

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Washington, D.C. -- Sophi.io, a suite of artificial intelligence (AI)-powered solutions that help content publishers identify and leverage the value of their content, has joined PILOT, an initiative of the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) bringing together a coalition of innovators, educators and advocates dedicated to advancing broadcast technologies and cultivating new media opportunities. 

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