Justin is away for today. This is my sad imitation of his awesome option expiry post ;-)

Justin will be back on Monday.

EUR/USD

• 1.0900 (EUR1.1bn), 1.0840 (EUR863m)

USD/CAD

• 1.3940 (US$693m), 1.3885 (US$650m), 1.3900 (US$457m)

GBP/USD

• 1.2900 (GBP638m), 1.2850 (GBP600.4m), 1.2800 (GBP490m)

AUD/USD

• 0.6700 (AUD451m)

NZD/USD

• 0.6100 (NZD720m)

USD/CNY

• 7.1500 ($854m)

EUR/GBP

• 0.8340 (EUR719m), 0.8400 (EUR328m), 0.8200 (EUR305m)

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 level. The figure level isn't one that holds any technical significance but the expiries could well help to box in price action in the session ahead. That without much fresh headlines involving the US election in the meantime. However, with the dollar under pressure, there is still a chance of European traders following through on the earlier price action. So, that's something to be wary about.

Then, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6600 level. The expiries are pretty huge and sits near the 200-hour moving average of 0.6599 currently. But the pair is largely driven by dollar dynamics to start the week, with the greenback opening with a gap down on US election sentiment. That is still the key driver to watch in the session(s) ahead but just note of the 200-day moving average at 0.6627 for the pair. That will be the bigger key level to watch on the charts for now.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

And they are for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 and 1.0900 levels. Considering the focus on the US election, this will keep price action more boxed in going into European trading and before we get to the election rush later in the day.

Besides that, market sentiment will be largely driven by election headlines over the next few sessions more so than anything else.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. But on a day like this, the influence of the expiries is far from the first thing in driving or impacting trading sentiment. It's all about the US election and the momentum flows riding from the results and emotions. As such, I wouldn't place much emphasis on the large one at 1.0725 currently for EUR/USD.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0725 and 1.0775 levels. To some degree, the expiries might just lock price action in between these levels but it's all about post-election sentiment now. And momentum flows will be the key driver of the moves, in particular the dollar. For now though, the greenback is seeing a slight pullback to yesterday's gains. So, the ones at 1.0775 could help to just keep a lid on things until we get to US trading at least.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

And again, they are all for EUR/USD layered in between 1.0750 through to 1.0800. Post-election sentiment is still the name of the game in driving FX flows now, so the expiries are just secondary drivers alongside everything else at the moment. That being said, they could play a role in keeping price action more boxed in until we get to US trading again later.

There aren't any key risk events on the calendar to really impact EUR/USD sentiment. So, it's all about how the post-election flows will settle as we look towards the end of the week.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 level. The daily lows last week were held by the figure level, so the expiries will add another layer to that as we get the new week underway at least. With the bond market absent to start the week, there might not be too much appetite for traders to chase any outsized moves.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.

And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 and 1.0625 levels. The pair is being pressured to the downside, touching its lowest levels since April now as the dollar continues to rampage forward. As such, that will put added emphasis on key support from the April low of 1.0601. The expiries above will just add a bit of a defensive layer as well, at least for the session ahead.

There will also be another notable one at 1.0600 for tomorrow, so just keep that in your back pocket in case. But for now, the post-election dollar sentiment continues to be the number one driver.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

Fundamental Overview

The puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might also be seeing some pre-positioning into a potentially hot US CPI report tomorrow.

At the latest Fed’s decision, Fed Chair Powell said that they expect bumps on inflation and that one or two bad data months on inflation won’t change the process. This keeps the 25 bps cut in December in place even if we get higher inflation readings.

The market though is forward-looking, and the rise in Treasury yields showed that the market sees risks to the inflation outlook. Moreover, the red sweep could increase those fears if the progress on inflation stalls, or worse, reverses.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY continues to consolidate above the key 152.00 support zone maintaining a bullish bias. If we were to get another pullback into the support, we can expect the buyers to step in once again to position for a rally into the 160.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 148.00 handle next.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. The price recently bounced near the trendline and we can expect the buyers to keep leaning on it, while the sellers will look for a break lower to gain more conviction for a bigger correction to the downside.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor support zone around the 153.40 level. This is where the buyers are stepping in with a defined risk below the zone to position for the continuation of the uptrend. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to target a pullback into the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

This week is a bit empty on the data front with the most important releases scheduled for the latter part of the week. Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

See the video below

• US indices close lower on the day. No new records today.
• Bitcoin trades above $90,000 for the first time. It broke the $80,000 level on Monday
• US CPI to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for 0.2% MoM
• It's not a pretty picture in China
• Fed's Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I'm optimistic that will continue
• BofA: Life don't come easy for CHF: What's the trade?
• US 10 year yield looks to close at the highest level since July 1
• Major European indices are closing sharply lower
• John Paulson drops out of the running for Treasury Secretary
• New York Fed: 1-year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 3.0% last month
• Fed's Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolves
• Fed's Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook
• And they are off. US stocks are marginally higher in the early trading
• LiteFinance Becomes the Official Trading Partner of Leicester City Football Club
• Kickstart the FX day. A look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective
• Canada Sept building permits +11.5% vs +1.7% expected
• Forexlive European FX news wrap: Not much action as we await the US CPI release tomorrow

Markets:

• Bitcoin trades to $90,000 for the first time, two days after passing $80,000. The high reached $90,243
• WTI crude trades down $0.07 at $67.97
• 2 year yield 4.338%, up 8.4 basis points. 10 year yield 4.421%, +11.4 basis points.
• Gold down -$20.78 or -0.79% at $2598.58. Lowest level since September 20
• S&P 500 -17.36 points or -0.29% at 5983.99.
• Nasdaq index down -17.36 points or -0.09% at 19,281.40. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P closed by the exact same point amount....
• Russell 2000 tumbled -43.13 points or -1.77% at 2391.84

In the US the NY Fed Survey showed inflation expectations moving lower with the one year inflation at 2.9% vs 3.0% estimate. That is the lowest in 4 years. The 3 and five years measures also declined with the 3 year down to 2.5% from 2.7%, and the 5 year down to 2.8% from 2.9%.

In Canada building permits soared by 11.5% after -6.3% decline last month. Overall permits were the second-highest level since the start of the new series in January 2017 but it's more of a one-off around government spending than anything related to the economy. Ontario's institutional component received big contributions from construction for long-term care facilities across the province and a hospital permit in Prince Edward County. Residential building is holding up on the multi-family side as the pipeline of condos continues to work its way through but single-family has flatlined.

The US bond market was open after Monday's Veteran's Day holiday and selling was the order of the day as traders price in the inflationary and growth implications of a GOP sweep (and perhaps increased deficits too). The 10-year yield rose close to 12 basis points. The 2 year is up close to 9 basis points.

The USD moved higher with the greenback moving the most vs the GBP (0.95%).. The GBPUSD moved to the lowest level since August 8 and traded below the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the April low. That level comes in at 1.27322. The current price is trading just above that level into the close for the day.

The EURUSD is rallying modestly into the close but still saw the dollar higher by 0.26% versus the EUR. The pair moved below the 1.0601 level which took to price to a new low for 2024. The low could only get to 1.0594 before bouncing higher into the close. The sellers in the EURUSD had their shot. They missed.

The USDJPY is closing higher by 0.61% and into a swing area between 154.54 and 155.21. The high price reached 154.92 extending above the high price from last week at 154.70. The price is trading at 154.62 into the close. Buyers are in control. Can they extend to the high target at 155.21.

The USDCAD traded to the highest level going back to October 2022 when the price extended to 1.3977. The high price today reached 1.3966 just 11 pips short of that high. The price is trading at 1.3949 going into the end of the trading day.

Gold continues its move to the downside after reaching record levels at the end of October at $2790.07. The price has since fallen -6.89% to $2597.88.

Bitcoin's sprint to the topside continued today with the price reaching above $90,000 for the first time ever and just 2-days after breaking above the $80,000 level. The high price reached $90,243. The price has come off that lofty level and trades at $88,092.

CPI data from the US due today, Wednesday, November 13, 2024.

Greg popped up a preview earlier:

• US CPI to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for 0.2% MoM

In a recent note, BMO previewed the data also. Analysts at the bank suggest that any significant influence from recent storms on inflation data is likely limited, meaning market reactions to any deviation in core inflation—either upward or downward—may be pronounced.

The consensus forecast calls for a steady +0.3% rise in core CPI for the month, with expectations leaning toward a possible upside surprise.

A +0.4% reading or higher would make waves, particularly against the backdrop of the recent election results. The logic suggests that if inflation was already ticking up before the GOP’s victory, the added impact of tariffs and potential trade conflicts could fuel further inflationary momentum. However, BMO analysts also point out that while targeted tariffs may not universally drive up prices, this assumption currently shapes US rates market sentiment. With this market outlook in mind, BMO expects that an upside surprise in October’s inflation numbers could have a meaningful impact on yields, increasing their upward trajectory.

At present, actual inflation data is seen as the most direct factor that could push 10-year yields beyond the 4.50% threshold. A softer-than-expected core CPI reading could trigger a rally in the Treasury market, though there appears to be a limit to how much the market will temper expectations for inflation following Trump’s victory. Instead, BMO anticipates the market will continue to define a trading range in this post-election landscape, characterized by a mix of cautious optimism and prevailing skepticism.

Australia data - Wage Price Index for Q3 2024:

+0.8% q/q for the third consecutive quarter

• expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%
• Both the private sector and the public sector rose 0.8%, seasonally adjusted, for the quarter.

+3.5% y/y, lowest annual rise for the series since December quarter 2022 and followed four consecutive quarters of annual wage growth equal to or above 4%.

• expected +3.6%, prior +4.1%

---

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes the Wage Price Index (WPI) quarterly, measuring changes in the price of labor, unaffected by shifts in workforce composition, hours worked, or employee characteristics.

The ABS provides detailed WPI data, including breakdowns by industry and sector, offering insights into wage trends across Australia's economy.

Deribit, the world’s premier Bitcoin and Ethereum options exchange, in partnership with SignalPlus, a leading options trading dashboard and analytics hub, is excited to unveil the second edition of the Winter Trading Competition 2024.

This year's competition offers participants a $200,000 USDC prize pool, along with various prizes such as iPhones, PlayStation 5s, and other rewards. Additionally, participants will benefit from valuable learning opportunities and insightful trading sessions designed to enhance their skills and strategies, making this the biggest and most rewarding crypto trading contest of the year.

The Winter Trading Competition 2024 is open to all retail participants who utilize their Deribit accounts to trade cryptocurrency options, futures and spot on the SignalPlus platform. Registrations are open and will remain open until December 9th 2024. The competition begins today November 4th to December 9th, 2024, spanning 35 days of intense trading action.

US Election Registration Bonus As an added incentive, traders who register by November 5 will receive a US Election Option, available as part of a limited-time bonus. Registrations remain open until December 9, 2024.

Luuk Strijers, Chief Executive Officer at Deribit, “We’re thrilled to launch the second edition of our trading competition in collaboration with SignalPlus. Following the remarkable success of last year’s iteration, we are excited to raise the bar even higher this time. The growth and enthusiasm we witnessed have inspired us to expand the competition, offering even more opportunities for participants to showcase and expand their skills.”

Competition Highlights:

• Prizes and Rewards: Compete in both individual and team categories, with special bonuses for team leaders and daily prize draws.
• Referral Program: Up to 10,000 USDC in rewards is available through a referral program for inviting others to register and trade on Deribit.
• Sign-Up Incentives : Bonuses are available for all registrations, first trades, and inviting friends, with participants eligible for prizes that range from cash rewards to tech products.
• Luxury and Variety: Participants have the chance to win various rewards, including iPhone 16s, iPads, Apple Watches, cash prizes in USDC, and travel to Thailand.
• Prestigious Recognition: Top individual winners will earn honorary certificates, while winning teams will take home trophies.
• Learning opportunities: Participants will also gain access to six master-level options AMAs (Ask Me Anything sessions) and Deribit’s product training hosted by industry experts, available absolutely free. These sessions are designed to elevate trading skills.

Chris Yu, Co-Founder of SignalPlus, added: “We’re excited to collaborate with Deribit on this landmark trading competition. At SignalPlus, our mission is to enhance the trading experience through innovation, and this event reflects that commitment. By combining our advanced technology with Deribit’s robust platform, we’re offering participants an unparalleled opportunity to engage with crypto options in fresh, dynamic ways, pushing the boundaries of strategy and skill.”

Competition Rules and Rewards:

• Individual Race: Individual participants will compete through semi-final and final stages, with prizes awarded to the top 35 traders. The highest-ranking trader will earn up to 5,000 USDC.
• Team Contest: The top five teams will win prizes ranging from 1,000 to 5,000 USDC. Additionally, each day for 35 days, one team member will win a luxurious trip to Thailand.
• Daily Draws: For 35 consecutive days, 111 lucky participants will win cash rewards daily.
• Daily Lucky Ranks: Every day, 9 special traders will receive prizes ranging from 10 to 300 USDC.
• Extra Incentives: Over 10,000 bonus prizes are available for registering, inviting friends, and making your first trade – the rewards keep flowing!

Key Details:

• Prize Pool: 200,000 USDC.
• Registration Period: October 23rd – December 9th, 2024.
• Competition Period: November 4th – December 9th, 2024.

Seize the opportunity to compete with top traders globally and start your journey toward exciting prizes today!

About Deribit

Deribit (https://www.deribit.com/) is a centralized, institutional-grade crypto derivatives exchange for options and futures trading. With state-of-the-art infrastructure, Deribit offers instantaneous price discovery, low-latency trading, advanced risk mitigation services, and deep liquidity through a network of top-tier market makers. Led by a team with decades of experience in options trading across all markets, Deribit facilitates a significant majority of all crypto options trading and adheres to robust proof of assets and liabilities procedures to ensure the highest standards.

About SignalPlus

SignalPlus provides a world-class options trading dashboard that covers risk tracking, profit/loss attribution, strike and theta analysis. Users can execute multi-legged orders with embedded algorithms to minimize slippage and conduct in-depth profit/loss and exposure assessments using simulation tools and scenario analysis. SignalPlus also automates delta hedging across varying market conditions and offers real-time trade notifications through Telegram, empowering traders with the insights and tools needed for successful trading.

Legend of Arcadia (LoA), a new card-based RPG set in an expansive universe inspired by Kingdom Hearts, is bringing a community-driven operational model to Web3 gaming. With a focus on sustainable growth, LoA aims to establish itself as a leading platform by integrating blockchain technology, unique NFT mechanics, and community-centric features that foster long-term player engagement.

As the Web3 gaming industry is forecasted to grow to $305 billion by 2030, LoA stands out by addressing key sustainability issues that have previously limited the success of Web3 gaming ventures. Many blockchain-based games have struggled with player retention and engagement, often due to unsustainable reward systems. LoA’s approach, built on years of gaming experience from its team’s work with industry leaders like Tencent, Hero Entertainment, and Seasun Studios, centers on creating an inclusive, feedback-driven community.

Community-driven growth and operations

Legend of Arcadia (LoA), a card-based RPG game built on a vast story universe inspired by Kingdom Hearts, has a strong vision for reimagining live operations in Web3, called community-driven operations. The formula combines building a sticky and vocal community driven by a strong feedback loop and nimble implementation of the ideas. This has helped LoA stand out from others.

The team has spent the past two years perfecting the formula based on their decade-long experience in driving high DAU and retention at leading game companies such as Tencent, Hero Entertainment, and Seasun Studios. At the same time, building a 60k+ strong community with users that actively interact with the team and provide them with feedback.

The right feedback loop between the community and the developer has led to innovative tactics for driving community engagement.

For example, rather than hosting traditional alpha tests, the team mixed the idea of esports and competition and invited people to form their own teams to compete during the test. This led to a brand-new Guild called Alter Ego Guild being formed in the community, and they remain some of the game’s biggest supporters, helping new players onboard and get deep into LoA.

During its three-month campaign, LoA had 100,000+ registered users with minimal marketing spend. It also has very high next-day and 7-day retention of 75% and 56%, respectively, higher than many traditional games' 50% and 20%. As it moves towards its TGE and official game launch, the community continues to provide feedback and support the team.

With backing from 10+ investors, including Animoca Brands and OKX Ventures, LoA can further develop the game's vastness, ensuring the community is constantly engaged with new content and utilities of its native token, $ARCA. This ranges from the endless possibilities of different NFT heroes to the countless actions and ways to earn $ARCA tokens.

Innovative NFT Mechanics and Extensive Gameplay

In LoA, each NFT hero is unique, with randomized genetic traits such as appearance and abilities drawn from a large gene pool of over five trillion combinations, including over 48 types of basic attributes, 40,000+ skill combinations, and more than 28 million gene combinations. This ensures that no two NFT heroes are the same.

The game team, supported by AI, has also created countless words and storylines, shaping different toy characters and enriching the stories of LoA. It also enhances player retention by implementing seasonal demands created by the in-game mechanics, which will eventually boost the trading volume.

$ARCA Token Distribution and Roadmap

In LoA, players can earn tokens through a variety of activities and strategies involving their NFT heroes. Inspired by a system commonly used in web2 games, by combining White Ores from mining with Black Ores earned in battles, they can produce $ARCA tokens. Heroes can also be customized through special events and features, which not only alter their appearance but can also provide gameplay advantages, such as enhanced mining power when using event-specific skins.

Players can also participate in PvE content by clearing dungeons and defeating bosses for valuable loot or diving into PvP battles to compete against others for rewards and climb seasonal leaderboards for even greater gains. To further boost their earnings, players can stake $ARCA tokens, unlocking additional rewards like free NFTs or a share of profits from NFT sales, adding another layer of value to their in-game investments.

In addition to earning tokens through in-game monetization, LoA further enhances sustainability by distinguishing between in-game and external economic factors. This structure allows players to monetize external elements, such as staking $ARCA tokens for special privileges and rewards or sharing in proceeds from NFT assets. This approach aims to foster long-term value creation over short-term speculative gains.

LoA will have a total supply of 40,000,000 $ARCA tokens that are distributed among seven pools where each pool will be further subdivided into different rank tiers based on the amount of Gacha Points earned.

With countless opportunities and activities in the world of LoA, the game constantly rejuvenates the excitement of its community and players, which will ensure its sustainability in the long run. The game also has plans for extensive single-player content (PVE mode) and multiplayer modes where players can form teams and challenge others in real-time battles. Legend of Arcadia is currently set to launch in November 2024.

About Legend of Arcadia

Legend of Arcadia (LOA) (https://legendofarcadia.io/) is a card-based RPG game built on a vast story universe inspired by Kingdom Hearts. LOA is built with the latest technology for the modern gamer, powered by blockchain. Players can enjoy the game for free, on the go, on a mobile device, and socialize in real-time with gamers from across the globe through immersive PvP game modes and by trading highly composable NFTs.

Last week, the tech giants — Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta — released their quarterly reports, which showed steady revenue and profit growth across the board, pretty much in line with previous ones.

However, except for the results of Jeff Bezos’ company and Amazon stock, the investors were not “fully satisfied.” Mixed forecasts for the next quarter and expected spending were of concern, especially in AI.

Although companies are confident in AI's enormous potential, developing and building the infrastructure to support it is proving costly, and results continue to fall short of expectations.

Right now, the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom are similar to those in the gold rush — the ones supplying the tools. In today’s terms, that means essential hardware and cloud service providers.

For example, Microsoft Cloud quarterly revenue grew 22% year-over-year to $38.9 billion, with Azure and other cloud services experiencing a 33% increase, about 12% of which was driven by AI services.

Amazon's AWS, in turn, generated $27.4 billion in Q3. Although slightly below expectations, growth in this segment remains strong at 19% (up from 12% last year), underscoring the growing demand for it.

Chipmakers, which drive these AI advances, are also experiencing huge gains. Leading the way is Nvidia, which recently surpassed Apple in market capitalization to become the world's most valuable company.

Taiwan's TSMC, a major chip supplier to giants such as Nvidia, Apple, and AMD, is also thriving. TSMC's technology powers leading-edge products in smartphones and advanced computing systems.

TSMC's third-quarter revenue rose 36% to $23.5 billion, while net profit soared 54.2% to $10.1 billion. Revenue from high-performance computing chips now accounts for 16% of the company's profit.

Who else benefits from the AI boom?

The list is not short: data centers, telcos, and networking companies are all reaping benefits, as are mining companies, driven by increased demand for metals and materials for chips and electronics.

Another big beneficiary could be the energy sector. Following the rise of AI tools such as ChatGPT, the UAE's Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology noted that global energy demand is expected to double.

Apparently, a single ChatGPT query requires ten times more energy than a Google search. As AI usage increases, so will the need for more data centers that do not run on air.

The minister expects a seven-fold increase in the use of solar and wind power, at least a 65% increase in demand for LNG, and a continued reliance on oil for fuel and other products.

0945 GMT / 0445 US Eastern time - Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann is a panellist on the Female Central Bankers panel organised by BNP Paribas’ Global Markets

*

The Bank of England cut last week

• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 7 Nov: FOMC/BOE cuts by 25 basis points

Expectations are for slower cuts ahead:

• More gradual Bank of England rate cuts = support for GBP

Japan's Seven & i Holdings is considering a management buyout to take itself private with funding from banks, Itochu Corp. and the founding Ito family in a transaction that could be worth US$58 billion

"People with knowledge of the matter" cited in the reports via Nikkei and Bloomberg.

The Japanese owner of 7-Eleven is considering going private by buying back its own shares in a bid to avoid a takeover attempt by Canadian rival Alimentation Couche-Tard, the news report says.

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.

They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 and 1.0650 levels. The former in particular will continue to be a notable one, adding another layer to key support at the figure level for the time being. As such, the expiries are likely to once again keep price action locked in until we get to US trading later at least.

As an aside, just be wary of the larger option expiries at the same level of 1.0600 through the week. And on Friday, EUR/USD also has a very large one pinned at 1.0700. So, just be wary of that in case.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

Why it's important?

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.

In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.

Distribution of forecasts for CPI

CPI Y/Y

• 2.7% (2%)
• 2.6% (56%) - consensus
• 2.5% (28%)
• 2.4% (12%)
• 2.3% (2%)

CPI M/M

• 0.3% (17%)
• 0.2% (73%) - consensus
• 0.1% (10%)

Core CPI Y/Y

• 3.4% (8%)
• 3.3% (81%) - consensus
• 3.2% (11%)

Core CPI M/M

• 0.4% (4%)
• 0.3% (82%) - consensus
• 0.2% (14%)

Analysis

We can ignore the headline CPI as the market will focus on the Core figures. We can notice that we have a pretty strong consensus and not much skew on either side.

Nonetheless, there's been a consistent bid in the US Dollar going into this report with Treasury yields higher and stocks kinda rangebound. The market might have already assigned some premium to a higher than expected print, so there's some risk of a short-term "sell the fact" reaction on a higher than expected number.

It goes without saying that a bigger than expected upside surprise should see the momentum increasing immediately with the US Dollar likely rallying across the board and Treasury yields shooting higher.

On the other hand, a soft print will likely see the US Dollar and Treasury yields falling, although one can argue that it's just going to provide a pullback to go long the US Dollar and short bonds again at even better levels as future conditions will likely see inflation getting stuck above the target or even moving back higher.

Fundamental Overview

The puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might have also seen some pre-positioning in the past couple of days into a potentially hot US CPI report today.

At the latest Fed’s decision, Fed Chair Powell said that they expect bumps on inflation and that one or two bad data months on inflation won’t change the process. This keeps the 25 bps cut in December in place even if we get higher inflation readings.

The market though is forward-looking, and the rise in Treasury yields showed that the market sees risks to the inflation outlook. Moreover, the red sweep could increase those fears if the progress on inflation stalls, or worse, reverses.

The market might have already assigned some premium to a higher than expected print, so there's some risk of a short-term "sell the fact" reaction on a higher than expected number.

It goes without saying that a bigger than expected upside surprise should see the momentum increasing immediately with the US Dollar likely rallying across the board and Treasury yields shooting higher.

On the other hand, a soft print will likely see the US Dollar and Treasury yields falling, although one can argue that it's just going to provide a pullback to go long the US Dollar and short bonds again at even better levels as future conditions will likely see inflation getting stuck above the target or even moving back higher.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD broke through the key support zone around the 1.0777 following the Trump’s victor, retested it and eventually continued lower. We are now testing another key level at 1.06 handle, and this is where the buyers are stepping in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally back into the 1.0777 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.05 handle next.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. We can expect the sellers to lean on it to position for the break below the 1.06 handle, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.0777 level.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 1.0630 level where we have the trendline for confluence. This is where the sellers are likely to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for the break below the 1.06 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.0777 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today, we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

For some context, these subsidies did come to an end in May but were reinstated in August through to October to cope with the warmer weather. Subsequently, they were continued until this year-end but the funds had to be drawn from reserves in the budget for the fiscal year that started in April.

NHK is now reporting that the government is considering keeping these subsidies from January through to March next year. Amid a higher cost of living in key populated areas such as Tokyo, the measure above is mainly to try and combat rising consumer prices.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – In response to the passing on Disney Senior Vice President of Government Relations Richard Bates, the following statement can be attributed to NAB President and CEO Gordon Smith:

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust, Commercial, and Administrative Law is holding a hearing titled "Reviving Competition, Part 2: Saving the Free and Diverse Pres."

NAB Statement on Increase in Violence Against Asian Americans and March 16 Shootings in Atlanta

Washington, D.C. -- U.S. Rep. Karen Bass (CA-37) will be the inaugural guest in an exclusive new Spotlight Series from the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) featuring members of Congress discussing key initiatives to advance diversity, equity and inclusion and their perspectives on broadcast media.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – NAB President and CEO Gordon Smith testified today before the Senate Commerce Committee's Subcommittee on Communications, Media, and Broadband at a hearing titled "Shot of Truth: Communicating Trusted Vaccine Information."

WASHINGTON, DC -- The National Association of Broadcasters Leadership Foundation announced today the finalists for the 2021 Celebration of Service to America Awards, recognizing outstanding community service by local broadcasters. One winner from each category will be announced during the Celebration of Service to America Awards program.

Washington, D.C. -- The regulatory framework governing ownership of broadcast radio and television stations harms broadcasters’ ability to compete in the marketplace, impedes localism and fails to promote diversity in ownership, the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) said in comments filed with the Federal Communications Commission (FCC).

Washington, D.C. -- David Griffin, president and CEO of Griffin Communications, has been named to the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) Television Board of Directors by Television Board Chair Perry Sook in accordance with NAB by-laws. The appointment is effective immediately.

Washington, D.C. -- The 2022 NAB Show, April 23–27, will feature distinct destinations focused on three main pillars associated with the content lifecycle. Designated “Create,” “Connect” and “Capitalize,” and situated throughout the North Hall, Central Hall and new West Hall of the Las Vegas Convention Center, each area offers renewed opportunities for learning, discovery and engagement.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- In response to the announcement by Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) that he will retire from Congress at the end of 2022, the following statement can be attributed to NAB President and CEO Gordon Smith:

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) today announced the hire of Bradford Caldwell as vice president of Member Experience. Caldwell, who starts on February 1, will report to Executive Vice President of Industry Affairs April Carty-Sipp.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Hubbard Broadcasting Senior Vice President and General Manager Joel Oxley testified today before the Senate Judiciary Committee's Subcommittee on Competition Policy, Antitrust, and Consumer Rights at a hearing titled "Breaking the News – Journalism, Competition, and the Effects of Market Power on a Free Press."

WASHINGTON, D.C. – NAB President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt testified today before the House Judiciary Committee at a hearing on imposing a performance royalty on local radio stations for music airplay.

Washington, D.C. -- The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) announced today that Xperi Corporation’s Ashruf El-Dinary and Capitol Broadcasting Company’s Peter Sockett are the recipients of the 2022 NAB Engineering Achievement Awards. They will be recognized at the 2022 NAB Show, held April 23–27 in Las Vegas.

Washington, D.C. -- Iconic game show “The Price Is Right”, which airs on CBS and is produced by Fremantle, is the 2022 television inductee into the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) Broadcasting Hall of Fame. Host Drew Carey and executive producer and showrunner Evelyn Warfel will accept the award at The Achievement in Broadcasting Awards on the NAB Show Main Stage on April 24 at 4:30 p.m. in Las Vegas, Nev.

Washington, D.C. -- Social media star and fitness instructor Cody Rigsby will discuss his focus on making exercise fun and Peloton’s impact on the multi-billion-dollar fitness industry during an NAB Show Main Stage session titled “You’re Doing Great, Boo: A Conversation With Cody Rigsby” on Tuesday, April 26 at 3:30 p.m. in Las Vegas, Nev.

Washington, D.C. -- Actor, director and educator LeVar Burton will receive the first-ever Insight Award from the Library of American Broadcasting Foundation (LABF) in recognition of his extraordinary contributions to broadcasting, history and American culture. Burton will be honored during the NAB Show Welcome on Monday, April 25 in Las Vegas, Nev.