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MMP activation-associated aminopeptidase N reveals a bivalent 14-3-3 binding motif [Protein Structure and Folding]

Aminopeptidase N (APN, CD13) is a transmembrane ectopeptidase involved in many crucial cellular functions. Besides its role as a peptidase, APN also mediates signal transduction and is involved in the activation of matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs). MMPs function in tissue remodeling within the extracellular space and are therefore involved in many human diseases, such as fibrosis, rheumatoid arthritis, tumor angiogenesis, and metastasis, as well as viral infections. However, the exact mechanism that leads to APN-driven MMP activation is unclear. It was previously shown that extracellular 14-3-3 adapter proteins bind to APN and thereby induce the transcription of MMPs. As a first step, we sought to identify potential 14-3-3–binding sites in the APN sequence. We constructed a set of phosphorylated peptides derived from APN to probe for interactions. We identified and characterized a canonical 14-3-3–binding site (site 1) within the flexible, structurally unresolved N-terminal APN region using direct binding fluorescence polarization assays and thermodynamic analysis. In addition, we identified a secondary, noncanonical binding site (site 2), which enhances the binding affinity in combination with site 1 by many orders of magnitude. Finally, we solved crystal structures of 14-3-3σ bound to mono- and bis-phosphorylated APN-derived peptides, which revealed atomic details of the binding mode of mono- and bivalent 14-3-3 interactions. Therefore, our findings shed some light on the first steps of APN-mediated MMP activation and open the field for further investigation of this important signaling pathway.




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Molecular characterization of the RNA-protein complex directing -2/-1 programmed ribosomal frameshifting during arterivirus replicase expression [Protein Structure and Folding]

Programmed ribosomal frameshifting (PRF) is a mechanism used by arteriviruses like porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) to generate multiple proteins from overlapping reading frames within its RNA genome. PRRSV employs −1 PRF directed by RNA secondary and tertiary structures within its viral genome (canonical PRF), as well as a noncanonical −1 and −2 PRF that are stimulated by the interactions of PRRSV nonstructural protein 1β (nsp1β) and host protein poly(C)-binding protein (PCBP) 1 or 2 with the viral genome. Together, nsp1β and one of the PCBPs act as transactivators that bind a C-rich motif near the shift site to stimulate −1 and −2 PRF, thereby enabling the ribosome to generate two frameshift products that are implicated in viral immune evasion. How nsp1β and PCBP associate with the viral RNA genome remains unclear. Here, we describe the purification of the nsp1β:PCBP2:viral RNA complex on a scale sufficient for structural analysis using small-angle X-ray scattering and stochiometric analysis by analytical ultracentrifugation. The proteins associate with the RNA C-rich motif as a 1:1:1 complex. The monomeric form of nsp1β within the complex differs from previously reported homodimer identified by X-ray crystallography. Functional analysis of the complex via mutational analysis combined with RNA-binding assays and cell-based frameshifting reporter assays reveal a number of key residues within nsp1β and PCBP2 that are involved in complex formation and function. Our results suggest that nsp1β and PCBP2 both interact directly with viral RNA during formation of the complex to coordinate this unusual PRF mechanism.




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Lipid-tuned Zinc Transport Activity of Human ZnT8 Protein Correlates with Risk for Type-2 Diabetes [Molecular Bases of Disease]

Zinc is a critical element for insulin storage in the secretory granules of pancreatic beta cells. The islet-specific zinc transporter ZnT8 mediates granular sequestration of zinc ions. A genetic variant of human ZnT8 arising from a single nonsynonymous nucleotide change contributes to increased susceptibility to type-2 diabetes (T2D), but it remains unclear how the high risk variant (Arg-325), which is also a higher frequency (>50%) allele, is correlated with zinc transport activity. Here, we compared the activity of Arg-325 with that of a low risk ZnT8 variant (Trp-325). The Arg-325 variant was found to be more active than the Trp-325 form following induced expression in HEK293 cells. We further examined the functional consequences of changing lipid conditions to mimic the impact of lipid remodeling on ZnT8 activity during insulin granule biogenesis. Purified ZnT8 variants in proteoliposomes exhibited more than 4-fold functional tunability by the anionic phospholipids, lysophosphatidylcholine and cholesterol. Over a broad range of permissive lipid compositions, the Arg-325 variant consistently exhibited accelerated zinc transport kinetics versus the Trp-form. In agreement with the human genetic finding that rare loss-of-function mutations in ZnT8 are associated with reduced T2D risk, our results suggested that the common high risk Arg-325 variant is hyperactive, and thus may be targeted for inhibition to reduce T2D risk in the general populations.




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Europe’s Clean Energy Future: Shared Challenges for Norway and the UK

3 July 2020

Antony Froggatt

Senior Research Fellow and Deputy Director, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme

Professor Paul Stevens

Distinguished Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme

Siân Bradley

Senior Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme
European oil and gas producers, such as Norway and the UK, face serious challenges in terms of the direction their energy sectors should take. There is an opportunity for both countries to place an accelerated energy transition at the heart of their post-pandemic economic recovery.

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Students gather to protest inaction on climate change in front of the parliament building in Oslo, Norway on 22 March 2019. Photo: Getty Images.

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, it was clear that the world is undergoing a transition away from fossil fuels and carbon-intensive sectors, towards renewable energy and clean growth. The collapse of oil demand and prices have simply compounded the challenges that oil and gas producers already faced.

What happens next will have significant implications for Norway, as one of the world’s largest exporters of both energy and capital, and for the UK, as it plans its recovery and looks ahead to its hosting of the next major climate change summit in 2021 - COP26.

While the speed and scale of the transition has always been uncertain and contested, an accelerated transition with deep implications for future oil and gas demand looks plausible.

There has long been a debate over when global demand will peak, but what happens after demand has peaked is perhaps the more critical question. Now there is the additional uncertainty of how this post-peak demand might be affected by an oncoming global recession and potentially by the greening of recovery measures implemented in response to it. Will there be an extended plateau, a gentle decline or a sudden collapse?

The post-peak trend will impact oil producers and exporters to varying degrees, in terms of their vulnerability to reduced volumes and lower prices, and their ability to compete in a shrinking market. There is also growing scepticism over whether natural gas can act as a bridge between coal-fired power and renewables, as increasingly, renewables directly replace coal.  There is also significant uncertainty over extent to which hydrogen, either produced from fossil fuels or renewable energy, will play a significant role in a decarbonizing energy sector.

Even before the pandemic, there was growing public and political pressure in most EU member states for more ambitious action on climate change. More challenging climate targets now look certain as a growing number of governments and companies commit to becoming carbon-neutral by ever-earlier dates.

While market developments, such as the rate of change and the costs of technologies such as renewable energy and electric vehicles will heavily influence their deployment rates, policy interventions and large-scale investment in core infrastructure are still crucial to their scaling up. We are now seeing the EU refocus its Green Deal in support of post-COVID recovery, and scale its support for transition in coal-dependent and carbon-intensive regions with its €100bn Just Transition Mechanism.  

These developments have significant implications for fossil fuel producers and energy consumers both inside and outside the EU. It will particularly affect Norway, not only as a significant supplier of energy to the EU, but as a member of the European Economic Area, with likely pressure to adopt similarly binding domestic carbon reduction legislation. Similarly, as the UK forges new post-Brexit trading and regulatory relationships, it will need to align with European policies for efficiency.

As the host of the critical COP26 UN Climate Change Summit in Glasgow next year, the UK will also need to at least match the EU in terms of its ambition on national emissions reductions, and in placing decarbonization and sustainability at the heart of COVID-19 recovery measures. However, unfortunately, the early indications are that 'Project Speed' will focus on traditional infrastructure projects are less than promising.    

The UK and Norway face similar challenges, as oil and gas producers that recognize the importance of climate change, and will rightly face scrutiny where they reinvest in their oil and gas sectors. They are both outside, yet highly dependent on developments within the EU. However, they are also both, somewhat surprisingly, world leaders in different aspects of decarbonization, such as off-shore wind or electric vehicle deployment, in part due their offshore capabilities and advanced manufacturing capabilities. This presents an opportunity for both countries and their industries to place an accelerated energy transition at the heart of their economic recovery and their relationship with the EU.

There will of course be different opinions on how to do this. A new Chatham House paper – Expert Perspectives on Norway’s Energy Future – explores these issues in the Norwegian context, and draws upon the views of 15 international experts on energy transition and climate change, each interviewed in depth. While unsurprisingly there is little consensus, these views provide valuable background from which to consider the future of future of energy for Norway, and for its partners including the UK and the EU.




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Clearer Role for Business Regulators Needed in Monitoring Trade Agreements

6 July 2020

Dr Jennifer Ann Zerk

Associate Fellow, International Law Programme
As the economic recovery from coronavirus is worked through, careful steps are needed to ensure actions to enforce human rights commitments in trade agreements do not worsen human rights impacts.

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Garment workers hold stickers bearing US$177 during a demonstration to demand an increase of their minimum salary in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Photo by Omar Havana/Getty Images.

Trade policy is a blunt instrument for realizing human rights. Although many trade agreements now include commitments on human rights-related issues - particularly labour rights - not everyone agrees that linking trade to compliance with human rights norms is appropriate, let alone effective.

Sceptics point out that such provisions may become an excuse for interference or ‘disguised protectionism’ and admittedly anyone would be hard-pressed to identify many concrete improvements which can be directly attributed to social and human rights clauses in trade agreements.

This lack of discernible impact has a lot to do with weak monitoring and enforcement. A more fundamental problem is the tendency of trading partners to gloss over – both in the way that commitments are framed and in subsequent monitoring efforts – significant implementation gaps between the standards states sign up to, and the reality.

Working from ‘baseline’ international standards and treating each state’s human rights treaty ratification record as an indicator of compliance does offer objective verifiability. But it also means underlying economic, structural, cultural, social, and other problems, often go unidentified and unaddressed in the trading relationship.

Regulatory failings of trading partners

Those with sufficient leverage can use dispute resolution or enforcement proceedings to signal displeasure at the regulatory failings of their trading partners, as recently shown by the European Commission (EC) in relation to labour violations by trading partners – against South Korea under the 2011 EU-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and Cambodia under the EU’s Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP) scheme.

These actions do show a more proactive and rigorous EU approach to monitoring and enforcement and have been largely welcomed – especially by trade unions – as a necessary political response to persistent failings by the states to address violations of fundamental labour rights. However, claiming any major victories on behalf of the workers who produce the goods being traded seems premature.

The ‘implementation gaps’ - between human rights commitments made in a state-to-state context and the reality of the human rights situation on the ground - mean there may be cases where enforcement action under a trading arrangement, such as the removal of trade preferences, may actually make things worse. Some local unions have expressed concern that the EU action against Cambodia may be detrimental to vulnerable migrant women factory workers, especially in the context of a worsening economic situation due to the pandemic.

Making stakeholder voices heard

There are routes through which people with first-hand knowledge of human rights-related problems arising from trading relationships – such as labour rights abuses in global supply chains – can make their voices heard. Unions have used consultative bodies set up under trade agreements to highlight labour abuses in trading partner countries - this helped to shift the Commission’s strategy towards South Korea.

But the rather vague and open-ended mandates of these consultative bodies, and their reliance on cash-strapped civil society organisations to do much of the heavy lifting, means they are not a solid basis for systematic follow-up of human rights problems.

And yet, every country is likely to have a number of agencies with interests and expertise in these issues. Beyond labour inspectorates, this could include environmental regulators, licensing bodies, ombudsmen, national healthcare bodies, special-purpose commissions, ‘responsible business’ oversight and certification bodies, local government authorities and national human rights institutions.

At present these groups are barely mentioned in trade agreements with monitoring frameworks for human rights. And if they do feature, there tends to be little in the agreement terms to guarantee their participation.

To seriously address implementation gaps, there needs to be much greater and more systematic use of these domestic regulatory bodies in human rights monitoring and enforcement activities. These bodies are potentially vital sources of information and analysis about the many different social, economic, environmental and human rights consequences of trade, and can also contribute to designing and delivering ‘flanking measures’ needed to assist with the mitigation of human rights-related risks or adverse impacts which have been detected.

Looking further ahead, monitoring practitioners may find - as those involved in the EU GSP+ scheme have already noticed - that close and visible engagement with domestic regulatory bodies helps strengthen a regulator in getting clearer political support and better resources. It can also help with greater ‘buy-in’ to human rights reform agendas, creating conditions for a positive legacy in the form of more confident, committed, and capable domestic regulatory bodies.

Paying more attention to synergies that exist between the work of domestic regulatory bodies and the principles and objectives which cause states to seek human rights commitments from their trading partners is a vital contribution to the concept of ‘building back better’ from the present crisis.

The goal should be to move from the present system – which veers between largely ineffective consultative arrangements and adversarial, often high stakes, dispute resolution – to more cooperative and collaborative systems which draw more proactively from the knowledge and expertise of domestic regulatory bodies, not only in the identification and monitoring of risks, but also in the delivery of jointly agreed strategies to address them.

This article is part of the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum, promoting research and policy recommendations on the future of global trade.




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Unrest Threatens Ethiopia’s Transition Under Abiy Ahmed

24 July 2020

Abel Abate Demissie

Associate Fellow, Africa Programme

Ahmed Soliman

Research Fellow, Horn of Africa, Africa Programme
Ethiopia is experiencing a turbulent transition. The uncompromising approach of political forces threatens to tear the country apart and reverse the hard-won gains made in recent years.

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Burned buildings which were set on fire during the violence after the assassination of Oromo's pop singer Hachalu Hundessa are seen in Shashamene, Ethiopia on 12 July 2020. Photo: Getty Images.

Violent unrest in Addis Ababa and the surrounding Oromia region has led to the loss of over 177 lives, with the detention of thousands and widespread destruction to property. The rise of identity-based conflict and related political tension is the most severe test of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s leadership since he came to power two years ago.

Protests erupted after the assassination on the 29th of June of Hachalu Hundessa, a prominent Oromo singer and activist. They spiralled into widespread rioting, looting and arson which devastated some towns. Targeted attacks and killings, particularly against ethnic minorities in Oromia, have damaged communities’ social fabric and heightened regional tensions.

The motives behind Hachalu’s murder are not fully understood. Suspects linked to a militant faction of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) have been arrested, while the government has blamed the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and certain prominent activist-politicians for inciting ethnic violence and attempting to derail Ethiopia’s fragile political liberalization. With investigations not yet concluded, any exploitation of this tragedy for political gain and without adequate due process is likely to further erode trust in the government and public institutions. 

Ethiopia’s progress halting under Abiy Ahmed

The prime minister came to power with a vision of national unity – encapsulated in his ideology of Medemer – and implemented a raft of reforms aimed at strengthening institutions and increasing political space, inclusivity and freedoms. Abiy was awarded the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for Ethiopia’s rapprochement with Eritrea, alongside domestic progress. He was lauded for mediating within the region, including in Sudan following the ouster of Omar al-Bashir.

However, Ethiopia’s simmering ethnic and political divisions have deep roots, with structural problems that have been insufficiently addressed under Abiy’s helm. These include conflicting narratives about Ethiopia’s history, an unfinished federal project and tensions over the division of power between the centre and the regions.

There is also the desire for better representation from various ethnic groups, linked to the pursuit of greater autonomy in many places, notably in the ethnically diverse southern region. Reforms have increased expectations among competing constituencies, heightening tensions further.

There are signs that Ethiopia is sliding dangerously backwards, particularly on security and democracy. The country has seen worsening levels of militant ethno-nationalism and inter-communal violence, a dangerous standoff between the federal government and Tigray region, and an increase in politically motivated deaths.

This has been compounded by the government turning to familiar, heavy-handed and securitized responses to law and order challenges, including intimidation and mass arrests of civilians, opposition politicians and journalists, and shutting off the internet. The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission called for security forces to refrain from punitive measures and pursue conciliatory approaches in implementing the state of emergency measures brought in to deal with COVID-19.

The country is also facing a triple economic shock caused by the pandemic, renewed instability and devastating desert locust swarms. The IMF recently reduced Ethiopia’s GDP growth projections for 2019/2020 to 3.2 percent down from 6.2 percent and the country has estimated that 1.4 million workers will be affected by the pandemic, particularly in the service and manufacturing sectors.

The impact on agriculture, which accounts for a third of GDP and on which most Ethiopian’s depend for their livelihoods, is expected to be severe. In addition to shaking investor confidence, the likely impact on livelihoods, food security and poverty levels makes it harder for the government to maintain public support and could add to instability.

Political turmoil caused by election delay

The situation has been exacerbated by the indefinite postponement of elections that were due in August 2020, as a result of COVID-19.

Efforts to avoid a crisis of legitimacy for the government caused by the end of parliament’s term in October 2020, led to a decision on the way forward being taken by the Council of Constitutional Inquiry (CCI). This group of legal experts led by the President of the Supreme Court, gave the ruling Prosperity Party (PP) an open-ended extension of their term, rubberstamped by the House of Federation, with no limits set on their powers during the interim period.

This decision sets a dangerous precedent and is a missed opportunity to achieve compromise and advance the democratic process. The lack of inclusion has angered opposition groups, with whom the government has had little genuine dialogue. Many in the opposition had advocated for a transitional or technocratic government during the interim, despite risks of further divisions and a vacuum of authority, and accuse the PP of manipulating institutions to stay in power.

Furthermore, the TPLF, the ruling party in the Tigray region and formerly the dominant national political force, is pushing forward with its intention to hold unilateral regional elections. It formed a new regional electoral commission, in spite of objections from the national electoral board and the government, which has implied it could use force to stop the elections. This rising enmity between the PP and the TPLF is extremely worrying and requires immediate de-escalation.

A pathway to genuine dialogue and reconciliation

Ethiopia’s problems can only be resolved through dialogue, compromise and reconciliation. Escalating tensions, particularly between the federal government, Tigray and Oromo opposition groups risk furthering instability and fragmentation. One way to establish confidence would be for a group of respected Ethiopian personalities (elders and religious leaders) to lead a political dialogue, with actors carefully chosen and vetted to ensure the buy-in of government, opposition parties and the public, and supported by Ethiopia’s regional and international partners.

Once established, an initial goal of such a platform would be to induce elites, populist leaders, activists and influential regional media to stop exploiting division and violence for narrow gain. Priority agenda issues include the election timetable and required institutional and legal reforms, the role of the opposition during the interim period, strengthening reconciliation efforts, and the need to carefully manage autonomous security forces within regional states.

The prime minister can still weather the storm and implement his vision of a unified multinational Ethiopia based on the values of democracy, rule of law and justice, but only if the government and other stakeholders do all they can to reduce tensions and preserve peace at this critical juncture. COVID-19 and the associated economic impacts have deepened the country’s multifaceted problems, which can only be resolved by political actors committing themselves towards inclusive dialogue and reconciliation, as they seek to forge a shared common future.




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Conflict-Related Sexual Violence in Ukraine: An Opportunity for Gender-Sensitive Policymaking?

18 August 2020

Kateryna Busol

Robert Bosch Stiftung Academy Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme
Meaningful change is needed in Ukraine’s response to the conflict-related sexual violence, which affects both women and men.

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Ukrainian feminists and human rights activists carry posters at an International Women's Day protest in Kyiv, Ukraine on 8 March 2019. Photo: Getty Images.

The virus of violence

According to the UN (para. 7) and the International Criminal Court (ICC, para. 279), conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) is quite prevalent in hostilities-affected eastern Ukraine. Both sexes are subjected to sexualized torture, rape, forced nudity, prolonged detention in unsanitary conditions with members of the other sex and threats of sexual violence towards detainees or their relatives to force confessions. Men are castrated. Women additionally suffer from sexual slavery, enforced and survival prostitution, and other forms of sexual abuse. Women are more exposed to CRSV: in the hostilities-affected area, every third woman has experienced or witnessed CRSV as opposed to every fourth man.

COVID-19 has redirected funding priorities, affecting the availability of medical and psychological help for CRSV survivors worldwide. In Ukraine, the very reporting of such violence, stigmatized even before the pandemic, has been further undermined by the country-wide quarantine-induced restrictions on movement and the closure of checkpoints between the government-controlled and temporarily uncontrolled areas.

Addressing CRSV in Ukraine

The stigma of CRSV, the patchy domestic legislation, and the unpreparedness of the criminal justice system to deal with such cases prevent the authorities from properly helping those harmed in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine armed conflict.

CRSV is equally traumatizing yet different in nuance for men and women. Female victims often choose not to report the violence. Women avoid protracted proceedings likely to cause re-traumatization and the disclosure of their experience, which could be particularly excruciating in small communities where everybody knows everyone.

Men also struggle to provide their accounts of CRSV. Their suppressed pain and shame of genital mutilation and other CRSV result in sexual and other health disfunctions. Combined with the post-conflict mental health struggles, this has been shown to lead to increased domestic violence and even suicide.

The very investigation of CRSV in Ukraine is challenging. Certain tests and examinations need to be done straight after an assault, which in the context of detention and grey zones of hostilities is often impossible. Specialized medical and psychological support is lacking. Investigators and prosecutors are hardly trained to deal with CRSV to the point that they do not ask questions about it during the interviews. Burdened by trauma and stigma, survivors are inclined to report torture or inhuman treatment, but not the sexualized aspects thereof.

Seven years into the conflict, the state still has not criminalized the full spectrum of CRSV in its domestic law. Ukraine’s Criminal Code contains a brief list of the violations of the rules and customs of warfare in article 438. It prohibits the inhuman treatment of civilians and POWs but does not list any types of CRSV.

The article has an open-ended reference to Ukraine’s ratified international treaties, from which the responsibility for other armed conflict violations may be derived. For the more detailed norms on CRSV, Ukraine should refer at least to Geneva Convention IV protecting civilians and two additional protocols to the Geneva Conventions, to which it is a party.

However, the novelty of the war context for Ukrainian investigators, prosecutors and judges and their overcautiousness about the direct application of international conventions mean that in practice, observing the treaty or jurisprudential instruction on CRSV has been slow.

Use of the Criminal Code’s articles on sexual violence not related to an armed conflict is not viable. Such provisions fail to reflect the horrible variety and complexity of CRSV committed in hostilities. They also envisage lesser punishment than a war crime of sexual violence would entail. Cumulatively, this fails to account for the intention of a perpetrator, the gravity of the crime and the trauma of its victims.

The lack of public debate and state action on CRSV understates its magnitude. Ukraine should break its silence about CRSV in Donbas and make addressing this violence part of its actionable agenda - in law and in implementation.

Ukraine should incorporate all war crimes and crimes against humanity of CRSV in its domestic legislation; ensure a more gendered psychological and medical support for both sexes; establish rehabilitation and compensation programmes for CRSV survivors; create special victims and witness protection schemes; consider the different stigmatizing effects of CRSV on men and women in criminal proceedings and engage the professionals of the same sex as the victim; map CRSV in the bigger picture of other crimes in Donbas to better understand the motives of the perpetrators; submit more information about CRSV to the ICC and educate the public to destigmatize the CRSV survivors.

The drafters of Ukraine’s transitional justice roadmap should ensure that it highlights CRSV, adopts a gendered approach to it and endorses female participation as a crucial component of reconciliation and broader policymaking.

Embracive policymaking

Although ‘the discriminatory line almost inevitably hurts women,’ 'every gender discrimination is a two-edged sword’, Ruth Bader Ginsburg famously argued before the US Supreme Court. This could not be more relevant for Ukraine. The conflict - and lockdown-related violence has reverberated deeper within Ukrainian society, raising fundamental questions about the roles of both sexes and gender equality.

The failure to address CRSV and its different stigmas for both sexes mirrors the general lack of sustainable gender lenses in Ukraine's policymaking. It is no coincidence that a June 2020 proposal for gender parity in political parties coincided with another spike of sexist remarks by top officials. While women get access to more positions in the army, sexual harassment in the military is investigated slowly. Despite all the impressive female professionals, no woman made it to the first four-member consultative civic group in the Minsk process. Such lack of diversity sends an unfortunate message that women are not important for Ukraine’s peace process.

Ginsburg said, ‘women belong in all places where decisions are being made.’ CRSV against either sex won’t be addressed properly until both sexes contribute with their talents and their grievances to all pillars of Ukraine’s state governance and strategy. Ukraine should look to engage professional women - and there are plenty - to join its public service not just in numbers, but as the indispensable equal voices of a powerful choir.




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Has the Dollar Started Its Long Decline?

28 August 2020

Jim O'Neill

Chair, Chatham House
Ultimately, the dollar’s dominance cannot persistently outweigh the relative decline of the US economy in the world. At some point, it will start to be replaced by something else. But don’t confuse that with where the dollar’s price is heading against other currencies.

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A statue of George Washington is pictured in front of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on 16 March 2020, at Wall Street in New York City. Photo by JOHANNES EISELE/AFP via Getty Images.

One of the features of financial markets since early summer has been a decline in the value of the dollar against many currencies, and with it, an especially interesting acceleration in the price of gold. In addition to the usual professional market analysis about the dollar’s movement, this has led to speculation that it might be the beginning of the end of the dollar’s pre-eminence.

Having spent far too much of my professional life as a supposed currency expert, I reiterate something I learnt early on: the foreign exchange business sometimes grants an analyst their 15 minutes of fame, but no expert is a match for the millions who participate in this huge global market all day long. But I spent over 30 years in the financial markets, the vast majority in the hubbub of the forex market. And along the journey, I think I learnt a few tricks of the trade.

At the core of trying to answer questions about the dollar, I learnt a long time ago that there are two entirely separate questions, one of which has two subsections, about the dollar. Firstly, there is the question about the use of the dollar. Will it continue to dominate the world’s financial system as the most widely accepted medium of exchange?

This is not at all the same issue as the dollar’s day-to-day performance against other currencies. This is the second question, which is almost definitely the most pertinent one to what has happened during the summer. How the dollar’s value moves against other currencies is driven by a structural, or a valuation component, and a cyclical component. Each can be analysed separately, and if you were daft enough to devote the years I did to the process, you can combine the two, to have a dynamically adjusted fair value, persuading yourself at least that such an approach combines all available information at any point in time.

In terms of valuation, the most common approach is so-called purchasing power parity, which holds that a currency, in equilibrium, will ultimately reflect the difference in prices between two countries. If inflation is persistently higher in the US than in the eurozone, then the equilibrium value of the dollar will decline over time. I developed my own version of equilibrium currency rates, as it seemed to me in the real world, that the real inflation adjusted value of a currency was not stable, and that it moved over time. This was a reflection of productivity differentials between two countries. I christened it GSDEER: 'the Goldman Sachs Dynamic Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate' when I joined the firm in 1995.

What I learned is that when a currency is more than two standard deviations away from its fair value, it makes a huge amount of sense to watch closely, and when the momentum changes, it is worth going with this trend reversal. The momentum can change based on a change in the forces that have driven the currency away from its fair value, although it can be often easier to detect simply by watching the change in price.

One of the things that has frustrated currency participants over the past decade, with the exception of the Swiss franc and the pound, is that other major currencies have not been that far away from their fair value against the dollar or each other. Even during the dollar’s rise in recent years, including the period up to the summer, while it had clearly become overvalued, with the possible exception of the pound, it hadn’t become more than two standard deviations above its own fair value. In this regard, I have believed that one might be on the lookout for a chance to buy the pound against the dollar, and perhaps against the yen.

The cyclical component of a currency’s movement around its conceptual equilibrium can perhaps best be captured in the nominal interest rate adjusted for inflation expectations. I persuaded myself that the actual spot exchange rate of the dollar on any one day should be close to the adjusted GSDEER, and if it was not, then it would be useful for traders.

The dollar had become more interesting pre-COVID, as it appeared to have risen notably against many currencies, including the euro. And in this regard, the dollar was highly susceptible, and has turned out to be actually vulnerable, to a change in the state of the US and euro area economies. Now that the Federal Reserve has returned to extremely expansive monetary policy, and with it, lower real interest rates, a dollar decline seemed pretty inevitable.

At current prices, on 26 August, the dollar still seems modestly expensive compared to dynamically adjusted fair value. The dollar decline could persist. In the late 1980s and mid 1990s, the dollar fell to very low levels and became very undervalued — this tended to coincide with widespread talk about the dollar’s preeminence, which turned out to be, at least for that era, wrong. And I do share the views of some people who believe, as a result of US policies, conditions are more conducive to a sustained period of dollar weakness. This requires strong ongoing evidence that Europe, China and much of the rest of Asia continue to manage COVID-19 better than the US, and that their cyclical recoveries from the pandemic continue to surprise relative to the US.

Now as for the first question, about the demise of the dollar’s dominance, let me repeat that this is largely a separate issue, but I encourage any reader to be careful about getting sucked into this belief in making an investment or hedging decision.

It is quite possible that the use of the dollar can decline, and start off a systematic decline even when its value is strong. Indeed, in the past couple of years when its value was largely rising, decisions made by US policymakers to use the dollar’s dominance as a way of penalising other countries has resulted in those countries reducing their share of dollar currency reserves. Russia is a particular example, and there is some modest evidence that China is doing likewise.

And the opposite can also be true.

Ultimately, the dollar’s dominance cannot persistently outweigh the relative decline of the US economy in the world, which has been occurring now for 20 years. At some point, it will start to be replaced by something else. Whether that is, the renminbi, the euro, Bitcoin, the return of gold — all are conceivable, and may happen. It might be starting now. But don’t confuse that with where the dollar’s price is heading against other currencies in coming days, weeks, or in 2021.

This article was originally published in The Article.




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First US Presidential Debate – Five Key Questions Answered

30 September 2020

Anar Bata

Coordinator, US and the Americas Programme

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Director, US and the Americas Programme; Dean, Queen Elizabeth II Academy for Leadership in International Affairs

Megan Greene

Dame DeAnne Julius Senior Academy Fellow in International Economics

Dr Christopher Sabatini

Senior Research Fellow for Latin America, US and the Americas Programme
On 29 September, US president Donald Trump went head-to-head with Joe Biden in the first presidential debate of the 2020 US election. Anar Bata spoke with experts across Chatham House to get their views on the key debate moments and the implications for the US election.

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People watch the first presidential debate between US President Donald Trump and Former US Vice President Joe Biden on 29 September 2020 in Hoboken, New Jersey. Photo: Getty Images.

What role do the presidential debates serve in encouraging voter turnout?

Leslie Vinjamuri: Going into the debates, 74% of Americans were set to tune in and watch according to a new Monmouth Poll. This is striking since more than 90% have already decided who their candidate will be, and many have already cast their ballots. 

During President Donald Trump’s time in office, Americans have been far more politically engaged than in previous periods. A record 49.3% of the voting eligible population turned out to vote in the 2018 midterm elections, according to the United States Election Project. This was the highest voter turnout since 1914, and it also reversed a downward trend. 

Debates don’t change voters’ minds and last night’s debate, the first between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is unlikely to be an exception. But debates can shape public sentiment and enthusiasm, not least for voting.

Polling confirms that Trump trails Biden by an average of around 7% nationally, but also that his base is highly enthusiastic. The same is not true for Biden: the older voters that support him are far more enthusiastic than younger voters that do the same.

How credible are Trump's claims that the US economy is experiencing a V-shaped recovery and Biden's claims that there is a K-shaped recovery? 

Megan Greene: Off the back of an unprecedented lockdown in the US and a resultant short and sharp contraction of the economy, the immediate recovery was swift and V-shaped. This is partly a reflection of significant support to Americans in the form of unemployment benefit enhancements and to businesses in the form of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans. But as the economy reopened, growth was always going to rebound and a short-term V-shaped recovery was always going to materialize.  

Don’t be fooled by Donald Trump’s assertion that a V-shaped recovery will persist though. Most of the support for workers and small businesses expired in late July or early August and people and firms have stayed afloat by dipping into their savings. In the absence of another fiscal stimulus package—very unlikely before the end of the year—this is completely unsustainable.  

The K-shaped recovery that Joe Biden has suggested is far more likely going forward. The lockdown revealed extraordinary inequality in the US economy. The death toll of the virus on black and Asian Americans was higher than on white Americans. Huge disparities were laid bare in the labour market as well.

It was precisely those hourly service workers who saw few wage gains since the last recession who were first to lose their jobs in this crisis. The service workers who kept their jobs were real heroes—delivering our food, teaching our kids over Zoom, removing our trash—and yet have not been remunerated accordingly. Unemployment for high-income workers is nearly back to January 2020 levels, but is still down by over 15% for low-income workers.  

This trend will only get worse as small businesses go under and large, superstar companies step in to fill the void. This increase in market concentration reduces the number of potential employers from which workers can choose and reduces workers’ wage negotiating power.  

Rising inequality in the US is by no means a new trend, but as with many things it has been accelerated by the coronavirus crisis. Inequality will continue to drag on the economy if it is left unaddressed.

Did either candidate refer to America’s role in the world?

Leslie Vinjamuri: This debate could only have hurt America’s global image. This comes in the midst of a pandemic, when the gravest problems are at home, and when America’s global leadership depends on getting its house in order. Rather than restoring confidence, Donald Trump used the debates to undermine confidence in the elections and to stoke fear of violence in America’s cities.

By design, most of the debate was focused on domestic issues. But the candidates did discuss climate science, the one issue touched on that matters most beyond America’s borders. The difference between Trump's and Biden’s plans was stark and the debates made clear that America’s global leadership on climate change hinges on these elections.

Biden articulated a clear plan to reduce carbon emissions, create green jobs and invest in green infrastructure. When it comes to global leadership, this would bring the United States back into a debate that China has been leading. Last week, President Xi Jinping committed China to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060; Biden has committed the US to achieving this goal by 2050.

But Trump repeatedly deflected the moderator’s question about whether he accepted climate science. And when asked about the link between climate change and forest fires, he launched a series of attacks on forest managers.

In addition to Trump's comments on China and COVID-19, the only reference made to foreign policy was Biden's comments that he would be tougher on Russia. Did this debate reaffirm the notion that the majority of Americans prefer less engagement with the world? 

Chris Sabatini: According to the themes set by the moderator Chris Wallace and the debate committee, foreign policy was not scheduled to be among the topics covered in the 29 September debates. That will come up later. When it did appear in the first debates it was around largely domestic topics: COVID-19, allegations of corruption, concerns about trade and manufacturing and suspicions of Russian influence shaping the US elections and US foreign policy. 

That foreign policy surfaced in this debate and around those specific, partisan issues demonstrates not a lack of interest by US voters in the world but the ways in which extra-national influence is seen by some (and played by the candidates) as damaging US politics, society and the economy. The problem is that such fears don't make for coherent or constructive foreign policies, but rather reinforce a perception of the US as a victim. Let's hope the issue of foreign policy comes up and is discussed more thoughtfully and positively in future debates when it is on the docket.

How will this debate impact the rest of the race?

Leslie Vinjamuri: For voters at home, the most disturbing part of tonight’s debates should be Donald Trump’s repeated attacks on the integrity of the electoral process.  This comes on the heels of the president’s failure last week to confirm that he would respect the outcome of the elections.

Trump used the debates as a platform to launch a series of attacks on mail-in ballots, casting them as fraudulent and saying that people should just turn up and vote. The recent debates confirmed that when it comes to the pandemic, the economy, and especially the environment, the alternatives are stark and there is a lot at stake. Whether this drives voters to the polls, or to switch off the television remains to be seen.




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Inhibition of mitochondrial oxidative metabolism attenuates EMCV replication and protects {beta}-cells from virally mediated lysis [Immunology]

Viral infection is one environmental factor that may contribute to the initiation of pancreatic β-cell destruction during the development of autoimmune diabetes. Picornaviruses, such as encephalomyocarditis virus (EMCV), induce a pro-inflammatory response in islets leading to local production of cytokines, such as IL-1, by resident islet leukocytes. Furthermore, IL-1 is known to stimulate β-cell expression of iNOS and production of the free radical nitric oxide. The purpose of this study was to determine whether nitric oxide contributes to the β-cell response to viral infection. We show that nitric oxide protects β-cells against virally mediated lysis by limiting EMCV replication. This protection requires low micromolar, or iNOS-derived, levels of nitric oxide. At these concentrations nitric oxide inhibits the Krebs enzyme aconitase and complex IV of the electron transport chain. Like nitric oxide, pharmacological inhibition of mitochondrial oxidative metabolism attenuates EMCV-mediated β-cell lysis by inhibiting viral replication. These findings provide novel evidence that cytokine signaling in β-cells functions to limit viral replication and subsequent β-cell lysis by attenuating mitochondrial oxidative metabolism in a nitric oxide–dependent manner.




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The glucose-sensing transcription factor ChREBP is targeted by proline hydroxylation [Metabolism]

Cellular energy demands are met by uptake and metabolism of nutrients like glucose. The principal transcriptional regulator for adapting glycolytic flux and downstream pathways like de novo lipogenesis to glucose availability in many cell types is carbohydrate response element–binding protein (ChREBP). ChREBP is activated by glucose metabolites and post-translational modifications, inducing nuclear accumulation and regulation of target genes. Here we report that ChREBP is modified by proline hydroxylation at several residues. Proline hydroxylation targets both ectopically expressed ChREBP in cells and endogenous ChREBP in mouse liver. Functionally, we found that specific hydroxylated prolines were dispensable for protein stability but required for the adequate activation of ChREBP upon exposure to high glucose. Accordingly, ChREBP target gene expression was rescued by re-expressing WT but not ChREBP that lacks hydroxylated prolines in ChREBP-deleted hepatocytes. Thus, proline hydroxylation of ChREBP is a novel post-translational modification that may allow for therapeutic interference in metabolic diseases.




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The role of uncoupling protein 2 in macrophages and its impact on obesity-induced adipose tissue inflammation and insulin resistance [Immunology]

The development of a chronic, low-grade inflammation originating from adipose tissue in obese subjects is widely recognized to induce insulin resistance, leading to the development of type 2 diabetes. The adipose tissue microenvironment drives specific metabolic reprogramming of adipose tissue macrophages, contributing to the induction of tissue inflammation. Uncoupling protein 2 (UCP2), a mitochondrial anion carrier, is thought to separately modulate inflammatory and metabolic processes in macrophages and is up-regulated in macrophages in the context of obesity and diabetes. Here, we investigate the role of UCP2 in macrophage activation in the context of obesity-induced adipose tissue inflammation and insulin resistance. Using a myeloid-specific knockout of UCP2 (Ucp2ΔLysM), we found that UCP2 deficiency significantly increases glycolysis and oxidative respiration, both unstimulated and after inflammatory conditions. Strikingly, fatty acid loading abolished the metabolic differences between Ucp2ΔLysM macrophages and their floxed controls. Furthermore, Ucp2ΔLysM macrophages show attenuated pro-inflammatory responses toward Toll-like receptor-2 and -4 stimulation. To test the relevance of macrophage-specific Ucp2 deletion in vivo, Ucp2ΔLysM and Ucp2fl/fl mice were rendered obese and insulin resistant through high-fat feeding. Although no differences in adipose tissue inflammation or insulin resistance was found between the two genotypes, adipose tissue macrophages isolated from diet-induced obese Ucp2ΔLysM mice showed decreased TNFα secretion after ex vivo lipopolysaccharide stimulation compared with their Ucp2fl/fl littermates. Together, these results demonstrate that although UCP2 regulates both metabolism and the inflammatory response of macrophages, its activity is not crucial in shaping macrophage activation in the adipose tissue during obesity-induced insulin resistance.




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Methylarginine metabolites are associated with attenuated muscle protein synthesis in cancer-associated muscle wasting [Protein Synthesis and Degradation]

Cancer cachexia is characterized by reductions in peripheral lean muscle mass. Prior studies have primarily focused on increased protein breakdown as the driver of cancer-associated muscle wasting. Therapeutic interventions targeting catabolic pathways have, however, largely failed to preserve muscle mass in cachexia, suggesting that other mechanisms might be involved. In pursuit of novel pathways, we used untargeted metabolomics to search for metabolite signatures that may be linked with muscle atrophy. We injected 7-week–old C57/BL6 mice with LLC1 tumor cells or vehicle. After 21 days, tumor-bearing mice exhibited reduced body and muscle mass and impaired grip strength compared with controls, which was accompanied by lower synthesis rates of mixed muscle protein and the myofibrillar and sarcoplasmic muscle fractions. Reductions in protein synthesis were accompanied by mitochondrial enlargement and reduced coupling efficiency in tumor-bearing mice. To generate mechanistic insights into impaired protein synthesis, we performed untargeted metabolomic analyses of plasma and muscle and found increased concentrations of two methylarginines, asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) and NG-monomethyl-l-arginine, in tumor-bearing mice compared with control mice. Compared with healthy controls, human cancer patients were also found to have higher levels of ADMA in the skeletal muscle. Treatment of C2C12 myotubes with ADMA impaired protein synthesis and reduced mitochondrial protein quality. These results suggest that increased levels of ADMA and mitochondrial changes may contribute to impaired muscle protein synthesis in cancer cachexia and could point to novel therapeutic targets by which to mitigate cancer cachexia.




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Methylated PP2A stabilizes Gcn4 to enable a methionine-induced anabolic program [Metabolism]

Methionine, through S-adenosylmethionine, activates a multifaceted growth program in which ribosome biogenesis, carbon metabolism, and amino acid and nucleotide biosynthesis are induced. This growth program requires the activity of the Gcn4 transcription factor (called ATF4 in mammals), which facilitates the supply of metabolic precursors that are essential for anabolism. However, how Gcn4 itself is regulated in the presence of methionine is unknown. Here, we discover that Gcn4 protein levels are increased by methionine, despite conditions of high cell growth and translation (in which the roles of Gcn4 are not well-studied). We demonstrate that this mechanism of Gcn4 induction is independent of transcription, as well as the conventional Gcn2/eIF2α-mediated increased translation of Gcn4. Instead, when methionine is abundant, Gcn4 phosphorylation is decreased, which reduces its ubiquitination and therefore degradation. Gcn4 is dephosphorylated by the protein phosphatase 2A (PP2A); our data show that when methionine is abundant, the conserved methyltransferase Ppm1 methylates and alters the activity of the catalytic subunit of PP2A, shifting the balance of Gcn4 toward a dephosphorylated, stable state. The absence of Ppm1 or the loss of the PP2A methylation destabilizes Gcn4 even when methionine is abundant, leading to collapse of the Gcn4-dependent anabolic program. These findings reveal a novel, methionine-dependent signaling and regulatory axis. Here methionine directs the conserved methyltransferase Ppm1 via its target phosphatase PP2A to selectively stabilize Gcn4. Through this, cells conditionally modify a major phosphatase to stabilize a metabolic master regulator and drive anabolism.




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Serum lipoprotein-derived fatty acids regulate hypoxia-inducible factor [Metabolism]

Oxygen regulates hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) transcription factors to control cell metabolism, erythrogenesis, and angiogenesis. Whereas much has been elucidated about how oxygen regulates HIF, whether lipids affect HIF activity is un-known. Here, using cultured cells and two animal models, we demonstrate that lipoprotein-derived fatty acids are an independent regulator of HIF. Decreasing extracellular lipid supply inhibited HIF prolyl hydroxylation, leading to accumulation of the HIFα subunit of these heterodimeric transcription factors comparable with hypoxia with activation of downstream target genes. The addition of fatty acids to culture medium suppressed this signal, which required an intact mitochondrial respiratory chain. Mechanistically, fatty acids and oxygen are distinct signals integrated to control HIF activity. Finally, we observed lipid signaling to HIF and changes in target gene expression in developing zebrafish and adult mice, and this pathway operates in cancer cells from a range of tissues. This study identifies fatty acids as a physiological modulator of HIF, defining a mechanism for lipoprotein regulation that functions in parallel to oxygen.




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Towards just transition in Africa: Green financing for nature-based solutions and rural resilience

Towards just transition in Africa: Green financing for nature-based solutions and rural resilience 21 July 2022 — 9:30AM TO 1:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 30 June 2022 Libreville and online

This hybrid event in Libreville explores just transition policy and green financing for nature-based solutions, with a particular focus on the integration of job creation priorities in conservation and rural resilience.

Global climate policies towards a ‘just transition’ under the Paris Agreement should align with and support African states’ national sustainable development priorities – in particular, the need for decent and fair job creation, as well as resilient and sustainable land, environment, and ecosystem management policies.

Achieving green growth requires innovative and more accessible financing models, especially as wealthy nations’ financial pledges have fallen short. Ahead of the ‘African COP27’ set to take place in Egypt in November 2022, there is a need for transformational strategic thinking and context-specific action from African governments, civil society, businesses and financiers, in their green financing demands and national implementation plans.

Preservation of biodiversity and nature is not only critical in the global fight against climate change but is also vital for conservation-based economic development. Natural capital stocks, such as terrestrial and marine ecosystems and biodiversity, produce benefits that support societal and individual well-being and economic prosperity, such as clean air, fresh water, regulation of water flows and pollination of crops – while also acting as important carbon sinks. Financing environmental protection must go beyond compensation and contribute to creating fair social and economic conditions for incentivizing conservation.

At this hybrid event in Libreville, participants will discuss green financing for nature-based solutions, particularly the integration of plans for job creation in conservation and rural resilience within just transition planning.

This event is part of a series on Towards Just Transition: Connecting Green Financing and Sustainable Job Creation in Africa, supported by the Chatham House Sustainability Accelerator.

This event will be held in French and English with simultaneous interpretation.

This event will also be broadcast live on the Chatham House Africa Programme’s Facebook page.




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Why Africa needs to be in space

Why Africa needs to be in space The World Today mhiggins.drupal 1 August 2022

From agriculture and navigation to banking and tele-education, satellite technology can have a huge impact on rapidly developing societies, says Val Munsami.

Africa’s socio-economic and environmental development is widely acknowledged as being crucial to its growth and long-term sustainability – and the prosperity of its more than one billion residents. 

Increasingly, though, attention is also turning to the contribution that the space industry can make to progress on the continent. Space-based products and services have a critical role to play in meeting national and continental priorities, as underpinned by the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals and the African Union’s Agenda 2063 – the bloc’s strategic framework for development, democracy and peace. 

With this in the mind of policymakers, the African Union’s space policy and strategy is embedded in Agenda 2063 as one of its 15 key programmes. It guides the sector’s development and the nascent African Space Agency, to become operational later this year from its headquarters in Egypt.


The continental agency is expected to leverage the benefits of space science and technology for socio-economic and environmental development. It will lead on bridging the space divide, especially for those countries that do not have a focus on, or activities in, space science and technology – and simultaneously inject some momentum into improving capabilities of existing national space programmes.

The African Union’s commitment to space has accelerated the growth of the African space industry. More than 20 national space agencies or space-related institutions have been established on the continent over the past five or so years. 

Our modern lifestyles are intimately dependent on space products and services. Meteorological and communication satellites are placed in geostationary orbits at an altitude of 36,000km above the equator. At this point above the Earth, they complete one orbit every 24 hours in the direction of the planet’s rotation, appearing, essentially, motionless – and providing a constant gaze on the same geographic location.

They provide a wealth of information that fuels the everyday services we take for granted, but that are essential for our everyday lives, from health to education to the economy.

From their vantage point, geostationary orbit satellites provide our daily weather reports, monitor climate-related cycles and offer a platform for near-instantaneous communications across the globe to relay multimedia, live sporting events and up-to-the-minute global news. 

This lightning-fast communication is also indispensable for tele-education and tele-medicine, by which professionals in urban areas can deliver educational content and health services to rural schools and clinics, respectively. Banking transactions also rely on telecommunication satellites to communicate between an automated teller machine and the data servers located at the bank. 

How satellites can detect disease

Other satellites are placed in low Earth orbits. These complete on average one polar orbit around the Earth every 100 minutes. Because the planet rotates across the plane of the orbit, such a satellite eventually covers the whole Earth, which is immensely useful for remote sensing and navigation and positioning applications. 

Remote sensing applications provide a myriad of products and services, including monitoring the state of our natural resources, observing ship traffic in our coastal economic zones and providing information for precision farming that can help a farmer decide, for example, when to irrigate and how much fertilizer to use.

They can also detect changes that might indicate encroaching water-borne diseases, aid peacekeeping missions and help ensure public safety and security. Navigation applications are vital for aviation and marine navigation, whereas positioning applications are important for safety-of-life services. 

The rich source of information derived from satellites is vital for evidence-based decision and policymaking

Another way that positioning applications in developing countries are put to good use is the assignment of geolocation addresses to dwellings in informal settlements where postbox addresses do not exist. This then allows the overlaying of key vector data about populations on to geophysical base maps. This type of data is vital for town planning in terms of how many schools and clinics are needed to serve the population, and the extent of the road, water, sanitation and electrical infrastructure needed.

The rich source of information derived from satellites, overlaid with in-situ data, is vital for evidence-based decision and policymaking. Datasets accessed from historical archives can be used to observe the time evolution of environmental and statistical data. 

When policy decisions are taken, we can utilize the same satellite and in-situ platforms to monitor progress after their implementation. The utility of data to inform decision-making is being enhanced through the adoption of AI and big-data analytics, which is placing key information at our disposal in near real time. 

It is therefore not surprising to notice the increasing focus on space science and technology activities on the continent. However, to ensure the effective uptake and utilization of space products and services, certain building blocks are needed to establish robust national and regional space ecosystems. 

Africa’s route into space

These ecosystems must include four primary elements to function: the human capital required to establish and operate the space initiatives; a significant industry base to capitalize on the commercial aspects of the space sector; the requisite infrastructure needed to support the space value chain; and international cooperation to ensure knowledge transfer and diffusion – so that we don’t have to reinvent the wheel.

To take advantage of the space ecosystem, Africa needs strong governance and institutional architectures


The applications and problem-solving innovations provided by space products and services are endless. To take advantage of this, Africa needs strong governance and institutional architectures. 

The evolution of the space ecosystem on the continent must be premised on key instruments such as a space policy – which areas to focus on and why – and a space strategy that outlines which programmes and performance indicators to pursue. 

The conceptualization of a space ecosystem is by no means a simple endeavour and there is certainly a dearth of skills and experience on the African continent to establish effective and relevant space ecosystems. 

There are many institutions leading efforts to build space capacity and skills on the continent, such as the International Space University in France, which offers programmes that provide a holistic overview of the complex global space sector, and the African Space Leadership Institute, which has been recently created to develop capacity in space policy, law and strategy. 

With the right approach, commitment and investment, Africa can rapidly change the fate of its citizens by effectively using space science and technology to support and drive its developmental agenda.




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The online media changing African news

The online media changing African news The World Today mhiggins.drupal 2 August 2022

Africa’s news sites are gripping audiences with digital innovation and bold directions. Helen Fitzwilliam talks to editors at three platforms.

Lydia Namubiru
News editor of ‘The Continent’ (South Africa)

At the start of the pandemic, we realized a lot of fake news was being shared on WhatsApp. So, The Continent chose to launch on that platform to insert some real journalism in a way that could easily be shared. We now have about 100,000 readers across Africa and the rest of the world, but we had to dramatically change the way we write and edit stories: to compete with the likes of Twitter and Instagram, we try to keep stories tight at 300 words. 

There’s a real variety. We can run an investigation into corruption in the Democratic Republic of the Congo a week after a front page on the fashion designer who dresses Africa’s ‘big men’ [powerful leaders]. We cover feminist issues, the backlash against LGBT people in Ghana; we’ve had the Namibian first lady talking to us about misogyny. These are not the sort of topics a typical African newspaper is going to lead with.

There are refugees in camps doing data operations being paid a pittance to help create multimillion-dollar systems for US companies – that’s a future issue


With a story such as Ukraine, the war’s impact on the cost of living has been the most obvious angle for us. It has driven countries such as Malawi into crisis, forcing a devaluation of the currency.
 
As for the future, we see two issues looming. Workers’ economic rights and their treatment by multinationals will be a big story. There are refugees in camps in Kenya working in data operations and being paid a pittance to help create huge, potentially multimillion-dollar systems for US companies. 

Second, Africa has the world’s youngest population and the oldest leaders, so this will likely lead to activism and protests. The young are exposed to the global village, so they want different things and have different values. They speak a completely different language their leaders do not understand. It will be an interesting conflict, but could lead to real violence. 


John Githongo
Editor of ‘The Elephant’ (Kenya)

We set up this platform four years ago. Due to political and commercial pressures, mainstream media wasn’t doing much critical reporting. We have between 30,000 and 80,000 readers a week, the majority of them in Africa. 

The digital space reaches a completely different demographic. When The Elephant started, it was 80 per cent male and over 40, but we have gained more younger people and more women. Now it is 60 per cent men, 40 per cent women and that is something we have been working at. 

Our editorial approach is that as long as a piece has a strong argument and fits into our pan-African brief, we will publish it – even if we don’t agree with it.

The conflicts in Ethiopia and parts of the Sahel make the war in Ukraine pale in comparison. So many people have died in Ethiopia or been displaced and now we have the onset of a famine after four years of failed rain. During the 1960s and 1970s, when the Cold War found its way on to African soil, millions of people died – so there is caution about getting involved in a European fight.

Ahead of the election, we are exposing those trying to change the level of debate with reputation-laundering


There is always a lot of fake news around during elections. But people are beginning to be more sceptical. We go after those who attempt to change the level of debate with reputation-laundering and try to expose their actions. 
 
The future of democracy is going to be a big issue. When Africans were watching the attack on the US Capitol last year, they were hoping it was not a Black Lives Matter protest, which could have resulted in a ‘blackbath’. As soon as they saw the white guys wearing horns, people laughed with relief. 

There is an ongoing recalibration of Africa’s geopolitical relations with the rest of the world. A poll released in June showed China has overtaken the United States as the foreign power having the biggest positive influence in Africa in the eyes of young people across the continent. The younger generation is writing its own narrative. 


Wale Lawal
Editor of ‘The Republic’ (Nigeria)

Nigerian audiences are increasingly online and tend to read both local and international publications. They also know that the issues they care about are either under-reported or reported at lower quality levels. 

At The Republic, we provide political journalism that tends to require high levels of expertise. Yet online audiences also prioritize engagement: it is not enough for an issue to be important, it also needs to be interesting.

Some topics we have covered that Western media tend not to include how people experience blackness in different parts of the world; the waves of mostly female-led and youth-led movements rising up against autocratic governments across Africa; and relationships between countries within Africa itself. In the early days of the pandemic, we launched a Covid-19 and Africa series, having noticed a glaring lack of African expert voices in global media.
 
We also cover Africa’s evolving relations with Russia. Whenever we encounter a story like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the first thing we always ask ourselves is what missing voice can we add to the current discussion? All we were reading about after the invasion was how neighbouring countries were opening their borders and their homes to Ukrainians. Most people saw only that. 

We knew that around 15,000 Africans were studying in Ukraine when Russia invaded, but their voices were missing from the discussion


But we knew that around 15,000 Africans were studying in Ukraine, that Africans routinely face harsh treatment at international borders, and that clearly their voices were missing from the discussion.

With fake news and information gaps on social media, our usual approach is to develop expert-led columns and circulate these as widely as possible.

Our next mission is to think about the role that independent media can play in supporting democracies, such as by increasing voter turnout. During the last election in Nigeria, less than 35 per cent of those who registered to vote eventually did so.




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Africa’s maritime agency cannot be overlooked

Africa’s maritime agency cannot be overlooked Expert comment LJefferson 3 November 2022

Increasing maritime awareness has already delivered impact, but consistency and continental leadership are needed to realize the sector’s full potential.

Africa’s 48,000 kilometres of coastline, shared among 38 coastal states, are resource rich and hold some of the world’s most strategic sea lanes, including the approaches to the Suez Canal, which carries 12 per cent of worldwide trade, and the Gulf of Guinea, a critical route for global energy. But despite the vast potential this represents, piracy and maritime insecurity have dominated the narrative of Africa’s coasts, and further propagated the image of African states as beholden to external intervention.

Yet African agency is established and evolving in the sector, with African littoral states enhancing their capacity to face collective security threats and exercising increasing autonomy in responding to the recent rush of external actors looking for port facilities and military bases. Enhanced continental coordination, consistency and leadership can help Africa’s maritime endowment become a resource that can bring sustainable benefit across the continent.  

Agency beyond piracy: the Gulf of Aden and Western Indian Ocean

Piracy became the dominant frame of reference for the East African maritime space as a result of the crisis off the coast of Somalia, which peaked between 2008 and 2012. In 2008, the UN Security Council (UNSC) took the unprecedented step of authorizing international naval operations in Somali territorial waters, contributing to a gradual reduction in attacks. There have been no successful hijackings reported since 2017.

As the immediate threat of piracy has quietened, broader geopolitical dynamics have come to the fore, notably in a surge by external actors to establish strategic ports and military bases.

But progress has not just been down to international assistance. Somalia is prioritizing increased domestic enforcement capacity – as demonstrated in the establishment of  a new specialized maritime unit and the wider region enhanced collaboration and information sharing through the Djibouti Code of Conduct of 2009, amended in 2017.

South Africa’s recent admission as a new signatory demonstrates its continued relevance. In March 2022, the UNSC authorization lapsed, following pressure from the Somali government. Although it is not yet clear whether Somali efforts will be sufficient to repress piracy in the long term, this reverse was a clear statement of Somalia’s agency at a level unthinkable during the outset of the crisis.

As the immediate threat of piracy has quietened, broader geopolitical dynamics have come to the fore, notably in a surge by external actors to establish strategic ports and military bases. Here too, African states have demonstrated enhanced agency, for better or worse. Consider Djibouti’s unilateral seizure of a container terminal from an Emirati firm, Sudan’s review of Russian and Turkish deals for maritime facilities, Tanzania’s rejection of a Chinese-led port investment, or the Seychelles withdrawing agreement for an Indian naval base.

Such examples point to a growing awareness of the value of maritime resources within African states, alongside a willingness and ability to push back against external imposition – and indeed to innovate in finding solutions beyond infrastructure and ‘hard’ security. In 2018, the Seychelles launched the world’s first sovereign blue bond to fund sustainable marine projects. That other countries are seeking to replicate this model points to the potentially global impact of African leadership on maritime issues.

Regional cooperation or competition in the Gulf of Guinea?

The Gulf of Guinea is likewise resource rich and geographically strategic, and has faced diverse maritime security threats including piracy, smuggling, illegal fishing, oil theft and pollution. Gulf of Guinea states put in place several initiatives to promote security, including the Yaoundé Code of Conduct (YCoC), signed by 25 states in 2013, that led to information-sharing and cooperation on interdiction, investigation and prosecution. But crime in the Gulf of Guinea nonetheless reached an all-time high in 2020, suffering 130 of the 135 maritime kidnappings recorded worldwide, due to the non-binding nature of the YCoC and gaps in capacity and finance.

Despite the clear impact of growing African agency in the maritime space, a long road remains towards the realization of its full potential.

Though external actors have become increasingly engaged, including the EU, US, France, Denmark, and the G7++ Group of Friends of the Gulf of Guinea (FOGG), states within the region, especially those most affected by piracy and armed robbery, have nonetheless demonstrated leadership. Nigeria, Ghana, and Cote D’Ivoire have all developed maritime security strategies; Nigeria launched its Deep Blue Project to secure Nigerian waters; Ghana has strengthened its navy; and Togo has changed its laws and judicial system to allow the arrest and prosecution of ships and persons. Maritime security incidents have consequently reduced in 2022.




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Humana and 18F-FDG PET/CT: Another Sequel to the Injustice of Being Judged by the Errors of Others




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The added value of 18F-FDG PET/CT compared to 68Ga-PSMA PET/CT in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer

Purpose: The 68Ga-PSMA PET/CT is a commonly used imaging modality in prostate cancers. However, few studies have compared the diagnostic efficiency between 68Ga-PSMA and 18F-FDG PET/CT and evaluated whether a heterogeneous metabolic phenotype (especially PSMA-FDG+ lesions) exists in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). We determined the added value of 18F-FDG PET/CT compared to 68Ga-PSMA PET/CT in CRPC patients and identified CRPC patients who may benefit from additional 18F-FDG PET/CT. Methods: Data of 56 patients with CRPC who underwent both 68Ga-PSMA and 18F-FDG PET/CT from May 2018 to February 2021 were retrospectively analysed. Patients were classified into two groups with or without PSMA-FDG+ lesions. The differences in patient characteristics between the two groups and predictors of patients who having at least one PSMA-FDG+ lesion were analysed. Results: Although both the detection rate (75.0% vs. 51.8%, P = 0.004) and positive lesion number (135 vs. 95) of 68Ga-PSMA PET/CT were higher than 18F-FDG PET/CT, there were still 13/56 (23.2%) patients with at least one PSMA-FDG+ lesion. The prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and Gleason score were both higher in the patients with PSMA-FDG+ lesions than in those without PSMA-FDG+ lesions (P = 0.04 and P<0.001, respectively). Multivariate regression analysis showed that the Gleason score (≥8) and PSA (≥7.9 ng/mL) were associated with the detection rate of patients who had PSMA-FDG+ lesions (P = 0.01 and P = 0.04, respectively). The incidences of having PSMA-FDG+ lesions in low-probability (Gleason score<8 and PSA<7.9 ng/mL), medium-probability (Gleason score≥8 and PSA<7.9 ng/mL or Gleason score<8 and PSA≥7.9 ng/mL), and high-probability (Gleason score≥8 and PSA≥7.9 ng/mL) groups were 0%, 21.7%, and 61.5%, respectively (P<0.001). Conclusion: Gleason score and PSA are significant predictors for PSMA-FDG+ lesions, and CRPC patients with high Gleason score and PSA may benefit from additional 18F-FDG PET/CT.




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Pattern of Failure in Patients with Biochemical Recurrence After PSMA Radioguided Surgery

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Theranostics for Meningioma on the Rise: New EANM/EANO/RANO/SNMMI Guidelines Pave the Way to Improved Patient Outcomes Using Radiolabeled Somatostatin Receptor Ligands




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Impact of 18F-FDG PET/MRI on Therapeutic Management of Women with Newly Diagnosed Breast Cancer: Results from a Prospective Double-Center Trial

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SNMMI Procedure Standard/EANM Practice Guideline for Brain [18F]FDG PET Imaging, Version 2.0

PREAMBLE

The Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging (SNMMI) is an international scientific and professional organization founded in 1954 to promote the science, technology, and practical application of nuclear medicine. The European Association of Nuclear Medicine (EANM) is a professional nonprofit medical association that facilitates communication worldwide between individuals pursuing clinical and research excellence in nuclear medicine. The EANM was founded in 1985. The EANM was founded in 1985. SNMMI and EANM members are physicians, technologists, and scientists specializing in the research and practice of nuclear medicine.

The SNMMI and EANM will periodically define new guidelines for nuclear medicine practice to help advance the science of nuclear medicine and to improve the quality of service to patients throughout the world. Existing practice guidelines will be reviewed for revision or renewal, as appropriate, on their fifth anniversary or sooner, if indicated.

Each practice guideline, representing a policy statement by the SNMMI/EANM, has undergone a thorough consensus process in which it has been subjected to extensive review. The SNMMI and EANM recognize that the safe and effective use of diagnostic nuclear medicine imaging requires specific training, skills, and techniques, as described in each document. Reproduction or modification of the published practice guideline by those entities not providing these services is not authorized.

These guidelines are an educational tool designed to assist practitioners in providing appropriate care for patients. They are not inflexible rules or requirements of practice and are not intended, nor should they be used, to establish a legal standard of care. For these reasons and those set forth below, both the SNMMI and the EANM caution against the use of these guidelines in litigation in which the clinical decisions of a practitioner are called into question.

The ultimate judgment regarding the propriety of any specific procedure or course of action must be made by the physician or medical physicist in light of all the circumstances presented. Thus, there is no implication that an approach differing from the guidelines, standing alone, is below the standard of care. To the contrary, a conscientious practitioner may responsibly adopt a course of action different from that set forth in the guidelines when, in the reasonable judgment of the practitioner, such course of action is indicated by the condition of the patient, limitations of available resources, or advances in knowledge or technology subsequent to publication of the guidelines.

The practice of medicine includes both the art and the science of the prevention, diagnosis, alleviation, and treatment of disease. The variety and complexity of human conditions make it impossible to always reach the most appropriate diagnosis or to predict with certainty a particular response to treatment.

Therefore, it should be recognized that adherence to these guidelines will not ensure an accurate diagnosis or a successful outcome. All that should be expected is that the practitioner will follow a reasonable course of action based on current knowledge, available resources, and the needs of the patient to deliver effective and safe medical care. The sole purpose of these guidelines is to assist practitioners in achieving this objective.




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Improved Localization of Insulinomas Using 68Ga-NODAGA-Exendin-4 PET/CT

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MIRD Pamphlet No. 31: MIRDcell V4--Artificial Intelligence Tools to Formulate Optimized Radiopharmaceutical Cocktails for Therapy

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Modeling PET Data Acquired During Nonsteady Conditions: What If Brain Conditions Change During the Scan?

Researchers use dynamic PET imaging with target-selective tracer molecules to probe molecular processes. Kinetic models have been developed to describe these processes. The models are typically fitted to the measured PET data with the assumption that the brain is in a steady-state condition for the duration of the scan. The end results are quantitative parameters that characterize the molecular processes. The most common kinetic modeling endpoints are estimates of volume of distribution or the binding potential of a tracer. If the steady state is violated during the scanning period, the standard kinetic models may not apply. To address this issue, time-variant kinetic models have been developed for the characterization of dynamic PET data acquired while significant changes (e.g., short-lived neurotransmitter changes) are occurring in brain processes. These models are intended to extract a transient signal from data. This work in the PET field dates back at least to the 1990s. As interest has grown in imaging nonsteady events, development and refinement of time-variant models has accelerated. These new models, which we classify as belonging to the first, second, or third generation according to their innovation, have used the latest progress in mathematics, image processing, artificial intelligence, and statistics to improve the sensitivity and performance of the earliest practical time-variant models to detect and describe nonsteady phenomena. This review provides a detailed overview of the history of time-variant models in PET. It puts key advancements in the field into historical and scientific context. The sum total of the methods is an ongoing attempt to better understand the nature and implications of neurotransmitter fluctuations and other brief neurochemical phenomena.




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[18F]F-AraG Uptake in Vertebral Bone Marrow May Predict Survival in Patients with Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Treated with Anti-PD-(L)1 Immunotherapy

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Intraarterial Administration of Peptide Receptor Radionuclide Therapy in Patients with Advanced Meningioma: Initial Safety and Efficacy

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Clinical, Pathologic, and Imaging Variables Associated with Prostate Cancer Detection by PSMA PET/CT and Multiparametric MRI

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Oncologist, Business Leader, and Investor Arie S. Belldegrun Discusses a Career in Innovative Medical Entrepreneurship: A Conversation with Ken Herrmann and Johannes Czernin




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Kinetic Analysis and Metabolism of Poly(Adenosine Diphosphate-Ribose) Polymerase-1-Targeted 18F-Fluorthanatrace PET in Breast Cancer

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[18F]FDG and [68Ga]Ga-FAPI-04-Directed Imaging for Outcome Prediction in Patients with High-Grade Neuroendocrine Neoplasms

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Feasibility, Tolerability, and Preliminary Clinical Response of Fractionated Radiopharmaceutical Therapy with 213Bi-FAPI-46: Pilot Experience in Patients with End-Stage, Progressive Metastatic Tumors

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Performance Characteristics of a New Generation 148-cm Axial Field-of-View uMI Panorama GS PET/CT System with Extended NEMA NU 2-2018 and EARL Standards

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CD70-Targeted Immuno-PET/CT Imaging of Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Translational Study

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Feasibility of 177Lu-PSMA Administration as Outpatient Procedure for Prostate Cancer




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International Metabolic Prognostic Index Is Superior to Other Metabolic Tumor Volume-Based Prognostication Methods in a Real-Life Cohort of Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma

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Changed Regulation Enables Pragmatic Solution for Cancer Patients




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SophosAI team presents three papers on AI applied to cybersecurity at CAMLIS

On October 24 and 25, SophosAI presents ideas on how to use models large and small—and defend against malignant ones.





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VEEAM exploit seen used again with a new ransomware: “Frag”

Last month, Sophos X-Ops reported several MDR cases where threat actors exploited a vulnerability in Veeam backup servers. We continue to track the activities of this threat cluster, which recently included deployment of a new ransomware. The vulnerability, CVE-2024-40711, was used as part of a threat activity cluster we named STAC 5881. Attacks leveraged compromised […]




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Re: Voluntary assisted death: how to ensure access and safety




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Addressing Climate Catastrophe Concerns in Asthma Medication Delivery: Rethinking Inhaler Use for Environmental and Clinical Efficacy




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Greenwashing assisted dying




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Re: Decompression alone or with fusion for degenerative lumbar spondylolisthesis (Nordsten-DS): five year follow-up of a randomised, multicentre, non-inferiority trial




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A Comprehensive Gender-related Secretome of Plasmodium berghei Sexual Stages

Felicia Grasso
Dec 1, 2020; 19:1986-1996
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Novel Proteomic Profiling of Epididymal Extracellular Vesicles in the Domestic Cat Reveals Proteins Related to Sequential Sperm Maturation with Differences Observed between Normospermic and Teratospermic Individuals

Tricia Rowlison
Dec 1, 2020; 19:2090-2103
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Separation and identification of permethylated glycan isomers by reversed phase nanoLC-NSI-MS

Simone Kurz
Dec 29, 2020; 0:RA120.002266v1-mcp.RA120.002266
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