I rapporti tra Gheddafi e Déby sono caratterizzati da una certa superficialità, dovuta alle tensioni passate e ai sospetti che nutrono l’uno per l’altro.

With a fledgling democratic government and a formal peace process finally in place in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the country will celebrate its 50th year of independence next month.

Cameroon’s apparent stability is deceptive: even if it overcomes its near-term challenges, longer-term deterioration could lead to conflict.

La fièvre des élections s’empare de l’Afrique centrale. Pour la seconde fois depuis la fin des guerres qui ont dévasté la région, les scrutins s’enchaînent au Burundi, au Rwanda, en République centrafricaine et au Congo.

Cameroon, until now a point of stability in the region, faces potential instability in the run-up to the presidential elections scheduled for late 2011.

Alors que se préparent les célébrations du cinquantenaire de l’indépendance de la République démocratique du Congo, le 30 juin prochain, deux événements très récents viennent rappeler l’extrême fragilité du processus de reconstruction de l’Etat entrepris depuis l’élection de Joseph Kabila en 2006, et les risques existants pour la stabilité du pays.

En Guinée, la période trouble sous la domination de la junte ne sera bientôt plus qu’un mauvais souvenir – si tout va bien. Le capitaine Dadis Camara, qui a été acclamé lors de son arrivée à la tête de l’Etat suite à la mort du président Conté, a fait de 2009 une année que les Guinéens veulent oublier, son évènement le plus marquant ayant été le massacre de 160 personnes dans le stade national en septembre 2009.

Election fever has spread across Central Africa. For the second time since the end of the disastrous civil wars in the region, electoral processes have been launched in Burundi, Rwanda, Central African Republic and the Congo.

While the prospect of Guinea's return to constitutional rule after its recent election is cause for hope, the recent resurgence of military takeovers in Africa may not yet have run its full course.

For more than a year and a half, UN peacekeepers have continuously supported military operations conducted by the Congolese armed forces (FARDC) against the Rwandan rebels of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) in North and South Kivu.

Vu du centre de l’Afrique – Tchad, République centrafricaine (RCA) et RD Congo –, le cinquantenaire des indépendances est un anniversaire à l’envers : on en parle davantage à Paris et Bruxelles qu’à N’Djamena, Bangui et Kinshasa. Sans doute parce que, en Europe, il s’agit avant tout de gérer des diasporas turbulentes et une relation bilatérale devenue épineuse tandis que, dans les capitales africaines, il s’agit d’éviter à tout prix le droit d’inventaire.

Después de 28 años bajo el gobierno de Paul Biya, Camerún se encuentra en una situación de inestabilidad grave que no sólo podría echar a perder las próximas elecciones presidenciales en 2011, sino que también pone en riesgo su papel como principal pilar de estabilidad en África Central.

The approaching elections could be important steps toward reviving democracy in Chad, but only if President Idriss Déby opens political space for the opposition beforehand.

Dans de nombreux pays, le pétrole suscite des débats controversés sur son rôle de moteur de changements économiques, sociaux et géopolitiques. Depuis quelques années, les réflexions sur la question du pétrole ont démontré une corrélation négative entre son exploitation, le développement socioéconomique, la gouvernance et le regain des conflits dans les pays producteurs.

In numerous countries, the exploitation of oil has generated debate about its economic, social and geopolitical consequences.

The UN's release of a long awaited report on crimes committed in the Democratic Republic of Congo between 1993-2003 is not only an opportunity to re-examine the historical record of mass violence in DRC -- the scale and nature of which was often overlooked in the wake of the genocide in neighboring Rwanda -- but is also a chance to correct the terms of the deceptive and fragile peace some leaders wish to proclaim in the resource-rich Great Lakes region of Africa.

Es ist eine einmalige Chance, die sich dieser Tage bietet: Die Veröffentlichung eines lang erwarteten Berichts der Vereinten Nationen über Verbrechen in der Demokratischen Republik Kongo (DRK) ist die Gelegenheit für eine Wiederaufarbeitung der Geschichte der massiven Gewalt im Kongo zwischen 1993 und 2003.

The attempt by Congo and Rwanda to end the deadly conflict in eastern Congo by a secret presidential deal and military force is failing and must be changed fundamentally by the Kinshasa government and the international community.

Despite three agreements between the rebels and the government, peace is still elusive in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. The Kivus need regional dialogue and a clear, fair repatriation plan, argues Thierry Vircoulon at the International Crisis Group.

Extreme poverty and armed conflict in the diamond-rich areas of the Central African Republic (CAR) put thousands of lives in danger and demand urgent reform of the mining sector.

Burundi risks reversing the decade of progress it has enjoyed since its civil war ended unless the government resumes political dialogue with the opposition.

Chad’s North West may become the next stage for insurgency, drug-running and religious extremism in the Sahel if the government continues to actively neglect the poorest of the violence-plagued country’s poor regions.

The international watchdog which seeks to prevent diamonds from fuelling conflict, the Kimberley Process, should take a very close look at the situation in the Central African Republic

Le processus électoral hors délai constitutionnel qui se déroule depuis le 23 janvier en Centrafrique n'est pas seulement une nouvelle opportunité manquée pour la démocratisation du pays mais c'est aussi un risque sérieux pour la paix.

A la veille de l’entrée en vigueur le 15 avril de l’obligation de rendre publique l’origine des minerais pour les grandes compagnies basées aux Etats-Unis, ICG a effectué une mission au Nord Kivu afin d’évaluer les différentes stratégies de lutte contre les minerais des conflits et leur impact sur le terrain.

As legislation requiring large U.S. companies to disclose the origins of the minerals they use is meant to come into force this year, Crisis Group sent a mission to North Kivu to assess the different strategies used to fight conflict minerals and their impact in the field.

Faced with the dilemma of respecting the constitutional deadline and organising botched elections, or ignoring that deadline and sliding into a situation of unconstitutional power, the Congolese authorities have chosen the first option.

Of the three political upheavals that have hit the Maghreb since the beginning of 2011, the Libyan crisis seems to be the most dangerous. First of all for Libya, because the popular uprising has taken the form of an armed rebellion that has cut the country in two; second, for the West, now that NATO, under the cover of United Nations Resolution 1973 (2011) and in order to protect the civilian population, has entered the conflict on the side of the rebels, rashly gambling on a speedy war; and finally, for the region as a whole, because the conflict recently "overflowed" into Tunisia, and neighbouring countries are beginning to feel its humanitarian consequences.

On 15 June 2011 the Congolese Parliament adopted, after nearly three months of de-bate, the new electoral law. The Senate, or upper house, controlled by the opposition, and the National Assembly, or lower house, controlled by the ruling coalition, both voted for an electoral law which ultimately remains very similar to that governing the 2006 elections. Parliament took three months of debate to reject most of the amend-ments proposed by the ruling party (PPRD). In doing so it demonstrated that the ex-ecutive could not simply trump its interests.

5 mois après la publication du rapport Burundi : du boycott électoral à l’impasse politique, la dynamique de régression que nous décrivions en détails dans ce texte produit ses effets dévastateurs. La fin du consensus d’Arusha et le pourrissement du climat politique consécutif au boycott électoral de 2010 ont conduit à une violence qui, en dépit du lénifiant discours officiel, ne cesse de prendre de l’ampleur.

The technical preparations for the presidential and legislative elections scheduled on 28 November and the beginning of the electoral campaign in the East of Congo have generated suspicion that risks developing into a crisis of confidence in the whole electoral process.

The fall of Qaddafi’s regime, followed by his death on 20 October, could pave the way to promises of democracy in Libya but left neighbouring countries facing new potential problems that could threaten stability in the region.

More than a decade after the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) was requested by the African Union (AU) to give life to a new peace and security architecture, political and security cooperation on the continent is still in need of reinforcement.

Insufficient political will has thwarted regional efforts to stop the murderous Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) but vigorous diplomacy led by the African Union (AU), an immediate military push and complementary civilian initiatives could end the misery of thousands.

Le président sortant vient d'entamer un sixième mandat au Cameroun. Aujourd'hui, le pays est résolument tourné vers l'avenir et pense à l'après-Biya.

Quel est le lien entre Houellebecq et le Burundi? Apparemment aucun, sauf que la possibilité d'une île de l'écrivain pourrait s'intituler "la possibilité d'une rébellion" à propos de ce pays de l'Afrique des Grands Lacs.

Trois semaines après la réélection contestée de Joseph Kabila en République démocratique du Congo (RDC), Thierry Vircoulon, responsable de l'Afrique centrale à l'International Crisis Group dresse un premier bilan des élections congolaises.

Despite the establishment of anti-corruption agencies, Burundi is facing a deepening corruption crisis that jeopardises prospects for lasting peace and stability.

La rechute est le risque majeur des pays post-conflit et l'une des principales raisons de cette rechute s'appelle la corruption.

François Hollande semble hésiter à se rendre à Kinshasa en octobre pour le sommet de la francophonie. Il serait bien inspiré de ne pas offrir au président, Joseph Kabila, une telle occasion de s’afficher réconcilié avec les démocraties après les élections présidentielle et législative calamiteuses en République démocratique du Congo (RDC) qui privent le régime d’une véritable légitimité démocratique. En se rendant à Kinshasa, François Hollande enverrait un message plus que trouble aux pays d’Afrique où la démocratisation est encore une lutte quotidienne que l’on paie au prix du sang.

Renewed oil interest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) could nurture communal resentments, exacerbate deep-rooted conflict dynamics and weaken national cohesion.

The Kivus region of eastern Congo again faces escalating violence, including by a rebel force acting as a proxy of neighbouring Rwanda. To stop the repetitive cycle of rebellion and avoid large-scale killing, donors and African mediators need to move from crisis management to conflict resolution with the right set of pressures on Kigali and Kinshasa.

The fight against entrenched armed groups in eastern Congo such as the ADF-Nalu needs to switch from a military to an intelligence-based approach.

The collapse of the state and the disappearance of security forces from a large part of the territory may turn the Central African Republic (CAR) into a source of instability in the heart of Africa.
Please note the full report is only available in French.

South Africa’s efforts to foster peace and security have placed it centre stage in some of the continent’s most intractable conflicts. This is an inevitable result of the quest to promote “African solutions for African problems”.

The Framework Agreement signed by the UN, African organisations and eleven countries and the deployment of an intervention brigade in North Kivu are positive steps, but conflicts in the Kivu region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo also require a bottom-up approach aimed at improving intercommunal relations and restoring peace at the local level.

All this foreign involvement has failed to prevent the recent coup or stabilize its aftermath. BINUCA has not been able to implement a disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration program, and it failed to convince Bozizé’s regime to reform the security sector or consolidate the peace. ECCAS has been unable to restore order in one of the smallest capitals of Africa, and troop-contributing countries have proved unable to deliver the 600 extra soldiers they committed to provide in April. Paradoxically, France, while securing Bangui’s airport, is also hosting ousted president Bozizé, who declared from exile in Paris his wish to retake power by force with the “support” of private actors.

L’indifférence internationale est un facteur aggravant pour les conflits dans les petits pays. Cependant, en ce qui concerne la République centrafricaine (RCA), le contexte est paradoxalement différent.

Since the March 24 coup by the Seleka, a loose coalition of Muslim rebels, the Central African Republic has been in free fall. There are about 400,000 internally displaced people, 64,000 refugees, and burned villages, largely in the western part of the country. Banditry, the rise of self-defense militias and clashes between Christian and Muslim communities are now part of daily life for this mineral-rich country in the heart of Africa. The expanding insecurity makes the delivery of humanitarian assistance difficult, and the United Nations has even warned of the risk of genocide.

Los conflictos en los países pequeños suelen agravarse debido a la indiferencia internacional. Sin embargo, en el caso de la República Centroafricana (RCA), el problema es ligeramente distinto. Hay una importante presencia internacional en este Estado, pero los actores principales han decidido mantenerse al margen y esperar en vez de intervenir activamente en la crisis.