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The Cuban Missile Crisis at 60: Six Timeless Lessons for Arms Control

As the best documented major crisis in history, in substantial part because Kennedy secretly taped the deliberations in which he and his closest advisers were weighing choices they knew could lead to a catastrophic war, the Cuban missile crisis has become the canonical case study in nuclear statecraft. Over the decades since, key lessons from the crisis have been adapted and applied by the successors of Kennedy and Khrushchev to inform fateful choices.




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Ukraine and the Cuban Missile Crisis: What Would JFK Do?

Kennedy’s statecraft in the missile crisis provides a rich source of clues that can help illuminate the challenge the United States now faces, and the choices President Joe Biden is making.




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213621: USG concerned about possible LeT attack

As the November 2008 Mumbai attack has shown, LeT is capable of launching attacks that can directly undermine Pakistan,s relations with its neighbors and regional stability generally.




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237503: The President's announcement on the way forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan

This cable contains information which we hope will be useful to you in engaging host governments, media, and the public after the President's address.




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211549: Under Secretary Burns meets Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh

In a June 11 meeting, Prime Minister Singh assured Under Secretary Burns of his strong personal commitment to strengthening further India's ties to the United States.




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Terror threats keep me awake, Manmohan Singh told U.S. official



  • The India Cables

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214563: NSA Jones' June 25 meeting with President Zardari

Zardari made repeated pleas for drones to be "put in Pakistan's hands" so that Pakistan would own the issue and drone attacks (including collateral damage) would not provoke anti-americanism.




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155753: Codel Feingold meets with President Musharraf

President Musharraf also asked the U.S. to put more pressure on India to negotiate over Kashmir, concluding that the time is ripe for resolution of the issue.




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126768: Bhutto asks Ambassador for security assessment assistance

Embassy strongly recommends against providing a U.S. Government evaluation, saying it will inevitably expose performance gaps that would not meet American standards of training and equipment.




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127495: Discussion with Bhutto designees regarding security

Even with support from the government, serious threats against Bhutto will persist.




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128579: security status of Benazir Bhutto when she was assasinated

It was made clear to the PPP representatives that certain dangers were inherent in the return of Bhutto to Karachi, mostly directed by elements from the northern areas.




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230969: Extremism in Southern Punjab and Northern Sindh

Though the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) continue to grab headlines for terrorist violence, poor and underdeveloped regions in the rest of "settled" Pakistan are increasingly the recruiting and training ground for extremism and militancy.




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136099: Pakistan elections and Bhutto assasination investigation

Complicating the PPP decision-making are growing indications of a leadership struggle.




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Maran called Karunanidhi's October 2008 resignation threat a diversionary ‘drama'

Spoke of DMK leader's attempted ‘blackmail' on Sri Lanka, warned that the Congress ‘will carry this grudge and retaliate at the right time'




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‘Pakistan's actions at the UN may embolden other member states to oppose U.S. positions'

U.S. Mission in New York raised concerns about Pakistan's voting on key issues such as counterterrorism and human rights




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248366: Scenesetter for Codel Kerry's visit to India

You will find an Indian government that is more committed than ever to building a durable and wide ranging USG-GOI relationship after Prime Minister Singh's Washington visit in November.




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223755: Finance minister on Pakistan's budget woes, Tokyo pledges, and U.S. assistance

In a September 3 meeting with the Ambassador, Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin said the GOP had included $2 billion in Tokyo Pledges in its budget but was grappling with a shortfall in actual donor assistance.




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80337: F-16 LOA signed at last

MG Tariq Salim Malik, Additional Secretary of Ministry of Defense Production (MODP), signed the Letter of Acceptance (LOA) to purchase 18 F-16s Saturday evening, September 30.




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State Department cable cited ISI links with militants




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213853: China thanked for support of nominations of 3 Pakistan-based individuals for UNSCR 1267 designation

Deputy Director Shen acknowledged the message but offered no further comment.




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The Kissinger Cables




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Data | The NDA juggernaut has halted with the BJP-led alliance losing power in key States

While the BJP-led NDA won resoundingly in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, it has lost power in five major State assemblies since December 2018.




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Data | 2021 Monsoon session: LS passed 14 Bills after discussing each less than 10 minutes

The average time spent on discussing a Bill dropped from 213 minutes in 2019 to 85 minutes in 2021




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Explained | How is the Congress president elected?

As leaders mull over who will head the party next, the Congress Working Committee announced that elections will be held on October 17.




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Data | India’s democratic values have eroded significantly: V­Dem

The debate around India’s erosion of democratic values has surfaced again after Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s remarks in the U.K.




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Navigating China’s Opportunistic Approach to Overseas Naval Base Acquisition

This report, by Maxwell Simon (MPP '23) and Jayaram Ravi (MPP '23), explores the drivers of setback and success that China has encountered in the process of developing dual-use and military-dedicated naval installations abroad. It looks at cases where China has considered or actively pursued military-dedicated installations to characterize Beijing’s general approach to overseas naval base acquisition.




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Judging Henry Kissinger

Joseph S. Nye writes that evaluating ethics in international relations is difficult, and Kissinger's legacy is particularly complex. Over his long tenure in government, he had many great successes, including with China and the Soviet Union and the Middle East. Kissinger also had major failures, including in how the Vietnam War ended. But on net, his legacy is positive. In a world haunted by the specter of nuclear war, his decisions made the international order more stable and safer.




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Indian Election Was Awash in Deepfakes – But AI Was a Net Positive for Democracy

As India concluded the world’s largest election on June 5, 2024, with over 640 million votes counted, observers could assess how the various parties and factions used artificial intelligence technologies – and what lessons that holds for the rest of the world.




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Rep. Mike McCaul and Amb. Paula J. Dobriansky on Competing with China and Russia

House Foreign Affairs Committee Ranking Member Mike McCaul (R-TX) and Ambassador Paula J. Dobriansky spoke about how the U.S. can better compete against China and Russia on technology and supply chains. Other topics included making changes to improve the defense industrial base, protecting critical supply chain infrastructure, and preparedness for major events like a pandemic.




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Legal Experts Discuss Accountability Measures Against Russia at HLS Event

The speakers included Yale Law School professor Harold H. Koh ’75, and Patrick W. Pearsall, Director of the International Claims and Reparations Project at Columbia Law School. Koh and Pearsall discussed their experiences representing Ukraine in legal proceedings against Russia before the International Court of Justice.




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Former Colombian President Iván Duque Discusses Resurgent Left Wing in Latin America at Kennedy School Event

Former Colombian President Iván Duque discussed Latin America’s resurgent left wing and advocated for environmental action at the Harvard Kennedy School on Thursday afternoon.




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“Lula's Possible Trip to the US Before Taking Office Puts the Embassy In a Tight Spot”

Recent guest speaker at the Future of Diplomacy Project, Ricardo Zuniga, the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary and Special Envoy for the Northern Triangle in the Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs at the U.S. Department of State, was quoted in Folha de Sao Paulo describing Brazil as "a great multilateral actor and has a long legacy of involvement in peace processes, in the search for multilateral solutions to one of the most complex security problems."




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"Biden makes suprise visit to Ukraine before heading to Poland for invasion anniversary"

U.S. President Joe Biden spent five hours in the Ukrainian capital on Monday, meeting President Volodymyr Zelensky and even taking a stroll through the streets of Kyiv – despite the sound of air sirens – to visit The Wall of Remembrance, which displays portraits of the approximately 4,500 Ukrainian soldiers who have died since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.

The trip was kept under a media blackout until a few hours after Biden’s arrival, with the president’s official schedule only saying he would fly in the evening to Warsaw for a planned visit. The New York Times reported, quoting an anonymous official source, that Biden arrived in Kyiv early this morning after making the same 10-hour long journey from Poland that every world leader visiting Ukraine since the start of the war has.




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Ukraine's Foreign Minister Shares Insights on the War and Ukrainian Determination

The Belfer Center at Harvard Kennedy School hosted a virtual conversation with Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba Wednesday (Feb. 22) to discuss the war in Ukraine as it reaches a full year since Russia's invasion. 




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Q&A with Desirée Cormier Smith

In honor of International Women's Day and U.S. Women's History Month, Erika Manouselis, Manager of the Future of Diplomacy Project, spoke with Desirée Cormier Smith, the U.S. State Department’s first ever Special Representative for Racial Equity and Justice.




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EVENT DEBRIEF: The Geopolitics of Latin America Amid the War in Ukraine and China-U.S. Tensions

The following is an event write-up about the recent Future of Diplomacy Project (FDP) seminar on “The Geopolitics of Latin America amid the War in Ukraine and China-U.S. Tensions” moderated by Negah Angha, Fellow at the Institute of Politics, on March 29, 2023.




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Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya on Belarusian Freedom and the War in Ukraine

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the current Belarusian opposition leader, speaks with Belfer Center Fellow Svenja Kirsch on Belarusian Freedom and the War in Ukraine.




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Is Stopping the War Between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Russia’s (Vital) Interest?

Simon Saradzhyan writes that the benefits that discontinuing the war on Russia’s terms can generate for defending or advancing Russia’s vital interests will exceed the costs of doing so.




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Putin’s Nagorno-Karabakh Calculus Can Undermine Russian Clout in FSU

Simon Saradzhyan writes that Russia’s decision not to employ leverage to stop the conflict in its early stages made a lasting impression on its allies.




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The U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism Newsletter: November 2019 - November 2020

 

  • Elbe Group Discusses Strategic Stability, Hybrid Warfare and Terrorism.
  • Mowatt-Larssen’s Book Details Lessons He Learned While Tracking Al-Qaida’s WMD Programs.
  • Experts on New START Extension and Other Nuclear Priorities of Biden Presidency.
  • Kazakhstan’s Last HEU Eliminated.
  • William Potter Joins Russian Academy of Sciences.
  • COVID, Nuclear Security On Agenda of IAEA’s 64th General Conference.
  • Mayak Aims to Process Entire range of SNF.
  • Atomguard Reports Foiling Unauthorized Access.
  • Allison: US Vital Interest in Prevention of Nuclear Terrorism Will Continue to Guide Its North Korea Policy.
  • Learning from COVID-19 to Prepare for Nuclear Attack.
  • Hecker, Kassianova Encourage Young US and RF Professionals to Explore Lessons of Nuclear Accidents.
  • Experts Weigh in on 75th Anniversary of Hiroshima Bombing.
  • A New Look at IAEA’s Nuclear Security Recommendations.
  • Azerbaijan Has Threatened to Strike Armenia’s NPP With Missiles.
  • IAEA Notified of 189 Incidents Of Material Being Out Of Regulatory Control in 2019.
  • Russia To Retrieve More Radioactive Debris from Bottom of Ocean.
  • Researchers Propose Fast Way to Detect Weapons Grade Materials.
  • Keeping Nuclear Power Plants Out of Reach of Terrorists During the Coronavirus Pandemic.
  • Bunn, Tobey and Roth Testify on Prevention of Nuclear Theft, Call for Cooperation With Russia.
  • Budapest Memorandum Parsed.
  • IAEA Holds A Ministerial on Nuclear Security.
  • Assessing Progress on Nuclear Security.
  • 12th GUMO Officer On Trial for Embezzlement.
  • Lukashenko: Pompeo Alerted Me to Nuclear Materials at Border.
  • US and Russia Reported HEU and Plutonium to IAEA.
  • IAEA Bank Receives LEU.
  • GICNT Hosted 8 Multilateral Activities in 2019.

 

 




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US-Russian Contention in Cyberspace

The overarching question imparting urgency to this exploration is: Can U.S.-Russian contention in cyberspace cause the two nuclear superpowers to stumble into war? In considering this question we were constantly reminded of recent comments by a prominent U.S. arms control expert: At least as dangerous as the risk of an actual cyberattack, he observed, is cyber operations’ “blurring of the line between peace and war.” Or, as Nye wrote, “in the cyber realm, the difference between a weapon and a non-weapon may come down to a single line of code, or simply the intent of a computer program’s user.”




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6 Months On: Does the Biden-Putin Summit Get a Passing Grade?

One of the few things America’s Joe Biden and Russia’s Vladimir Putin had agreed upon prior to their first summit almost half a year ago was that they would not hold a joint press conference after their June 16 huddle at an 18th century villa in Geneva. The two presidents’ decision to talk to press separately came as no surprise, given how many major issues they publicly disagreed on at the time.




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The U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism Newsletter: November 2020 - November 2021

 

  • U.S.-Russia Elbe Group Maintains Focus on Threat of Nuclear Terrorism.
  • Former Chernobyl Plant Manager Bryukhanov Dies.
  • Matthew Bunn on Threat to Nuclear and Radiological Transports.
  • On 9/11 Anniversary Russian Officials Call for Resumption of U.S.-Russian CT Cooperation.
  • Experts Weigh in on 9/11 Anniversary.
  • U.S. and Norway Agree to Eliminate All of Norway’s HEU.
  • Two Soviet Nuclear Submarine Reactors Located.
  • Russian Security Council: Terrorists Remain Interested in NBC.
  • IAEA Adopts Resolutions on Nuclear Security, NS Center Planned.
  • Allison on Risk of Mega-terrorist Attack After U.S. Withdrawal From Afghanistan.
  • Arbatov Warns of Enduring Threat of Nuclear Terrorism to Russia in His New Volume.
  • Russia’s New Security Strategy Drops References to CT Partnership With U.S.
  • NNSA’s Non-Proliferation Budget to Decrease in ’22, Provides for US and Russian Visits.
  • Should U.S.-Russian Interaction in Cyberspace Involve CT? 
  • Russia’s NPP Operator Conducts Emergency Preparedness Exercise.
  • Putin and Biden Discuss Terrorist Threat Emanating from Afghanistan, but No Deal.
  • U.S. Experts on Ensuring Access to Neutrons While Reducing Nuclear Terrorism Risks.
  • Beebe Weighs in on U.S.-Russian CT Interaction.
  • Duo Detained for Alleged Attempt to Sell Americium-241.
  • 12th GUMO Guard’s Sentence Upheld.
  • NDAA-Mandated Group to Identify Nuclear Terrorism Risks.
  • Belfer’s MTA Hosts Conference on Lessons of Fukushima and Chernobyl.
  • Russia Withdraws from Uranium Hexafluoride Transportation Deal with U.S.
  • Bell: U.S. Needs to Convince Russia on Contending With Nuclear Terrorism Threat.
  • U.S. and Canada Complete Repatriation of HEU Material.
  • Siegfried Hecker Outlines his Vision of Future for Nuclear Security Cooperation.
  • Hackers Breach U.S. Nuclear Agency.
  • Tobey on Assassinations of Nuclear Scientists and Terrorists.
  • Rosatom Has Checked Nuclear Sites, Following a Tip on Terrorism from U.S.




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Dynamics of Nuclear and Radiological Terrorism Threats to Post-Soviet Russia

Simon Saradzhyan was invited to publicly brief the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) committee addressing the adequacy of strategies to prevent, counter, and respond to nuclear terrorism, and identify technical, policy, and resource gaps. The consensus study is a congressionally mandated analysis included in the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act (Section 1299I) sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (Policy).  Nearly 60 stakeholders concerned about this topic from the Department of Defense, US Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, State Department, National Security Council, US Congress, the National Labs, and many non-governmental organizations were in attendance. The briefings are available at the NAS event website. Video of the presentation can be found here.




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What Africa Can Learn from China about Growing its Agribusiness Sector

There is growing evidence that the Chinese economic miracle is a consequence of the rural entrepreneurship which started in the 1980s. This contradicts classical interpretations that focus on state-led enterprises and receptiveness to foreign direct investment....The lesson from China's experience is that development must be viewed as an expression of human potentialities, not as a product of external interventions.




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Pest-resistant Maize Variety Opens Way for Technological Advancement

"It is estimated that the spotted stem borer and the African stem borer reduce Kenya's maize crop by 13 per cent or 400,000 tonnes annually. Controlling the pest using biotechnology will not only reduce Kenya's food imports, it will also equip the country with new techniques that can be redeployed for other sectors such as drug and vaccine development."




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How the EU Starves Africa into Submission

"African leaders would like to escape the colonial trap of being viewed simply as raw material exporters. But their efforts to add value to the materials continue to be frustrated by existing EU policies."




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Salata Institute Launches Initiative to Reduce Global Methane Emissions

The Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability at Harvard University launched today a major research and outreach initiative to reduce global methane emissions. The initiative seeks meaningful and sustained progress in global methane-emissions reductions through research and effective engagement with government policymakers and with key stakeholders in business, nongovernmental organizations, and international institutions.




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The Electricity Sector and Climate Policy: A Discussion with Karen Palmer

Energy economist Karen Palmer, renowned for her research on the nation’s electric power sector, shared her insights on electricity regulation and deregulation, carbon pricing, and climate change policy in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.”




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Emma Rothschild on Adam Smith, Methane Emissions, and Climate Change

Economic historian Emma Rothschild, the Jeremy and Jane Knowles Professor of History at Harvard, lauded the efforts of young scholars to discover local solutions to mitigate the impacts of global climate change in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.” The podcast is produced by the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.