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Tully: A surefire way to improve politics, Indiana and the Republic

A long-stalled push to eliminate gerrymandering suddenly enjoys some momentum.

      




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Columnist Matt Tully on leave until next year

Tully plans to return to work in early 2018.

      




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Tully: Amid Trump's ugliness, wise words at St. Thomas Aquinas Church

St. Thomas Aquinas Church has long worked with communities in Haiti and Africa. The church responded to the president's recent comments.

      




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Tully: This bill would end lunch shaming at school

Sen. Mark Stoops' bill would block schools from shaming students to get their parents to pay for lunch.

      




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Tully: 'The Post,' as seen through the eyes of student journalists

I wondered about what the next generation of journalists thought about the movie's message, and about the tensions between the press and government.

      




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Tully: As Congress fights, a Dreamer just wants to 'pay it forward'

Sandy Rivera is one of roughly 800,000 DACA program participants whose futures hang in the balance of a congressional debate.

      




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Tully: At Statehouse, environmental concerns can't get a hearing

An effort to have a legislative hearing on a bill to check the power factory farms have over the communities they pollute died quietly in recent days.

      




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Tully: The solution to Indy's pothole crisis

Indianapolis has a pothole problem that is both dangerous and embarrassing. Here's a way out of this infrastructure mess.

      




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Tully: At the broken Statehouse, it's payday loans over people

The advance of a cruel payday lending bill is the latest reminder that something is broken at the Statehouse.

      




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Tully: A story about former police chief Troy Riggs

Former Police Chief Troy Riggs has left for Denver, but Indianapolis should remember his message.

      




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Tully: In the fight against gun violence, can't we reach for greatness?

The latest school shooting seemed to come with a feeling of resignation that nothing will change. We can't let that feeling dominate.

      




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Tully: On guns, we need Todd Young to be Todd Young

Todd Young has a lot of smart things to say about a lot of issues. On one issue, though, he dodges when his leadership is needed.

      




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Tully: Riding over potholes with Indy's DPW chief Dan Parker

Many ridiculously pockmarked stretches of road could qualify as the worst of the worst this pothole season.

      




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Tully: Todd Rokita adds to his cheap shot resume

U.S. Senate candidate Todd Rokita goes low yet again. This time he directs his empty rhetoric at an Indiana city he should be trying to help.

      




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Tully: The upside of potholes

They're everywhere, and they're horrible. But it's just possible that this maddening pothole season has a silver lining.

      




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Tully: 'Relentless' education champion David Harris on leaving The Mind Trust

A big change in Indianapolis' education landscape is a reminder of how much things have improved in recent years.

      




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Tully: I'm taking a cancer break, but I'll be back

It's time for a short break to deal with some cancer issues. But I'll be back.

      




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Tully: A few questions for bumbling Statehouse Republicans

The need for a special session shows once again that Statehouse Republicans have lost their way.

      




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Tully: From Luke Messer, a welcome dose of sanity

Senate candidate Luke Messer airs a new TV ad. It's refreshing because it doesn't demean the opposition and doesn't aim to anger primary voters.

      




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Tully: 3 lessons Todd Rokita should learn

Todd Rokita is running for the Senate with a campaign that could hardly be less senatorial. And that's not a good thing.

      




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Tully: Ben Davis twins will graduate with honors, join Air Force

Ariela and Verania Andrade are graduating near the top of their class at Ben Davis High School. They're also preparing to serve their country.

      




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Tully: Todd Young shows us that not all is broken in D.C.

Democrat Joe Donnelly is known for his bipartisan ways. But the state's junior senator, Republican Todd Young, also reaches out to the other side.

      




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Tully: 8 takeaways from Tuesday's primaries

A lot of interesting storylines emerged from Tuesday's primaries. Here are several of them.

       




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Tully: The truth is, we need more politicians like Joe Donnelly

Bipartisanship doesn't score you many points in politics these days. But it should, and Sen. Joe Donnelly is a perfect example of why.

       




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Indianapolis remembers Matt Tully

We miss you, friend.

       




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In memory of Matt Tully, Indiana delegation introduces stomach cancer awareness resolution

The Indiana congressional delegation introduced a House resolution expressing support for the goals and ideas of ''Stomach Cancer Awareness Month."

       




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Tully: Broad Ripple High School's last valedictorian

Jennifer Argumedo is this year's valedictorian at Broad Ripple High School. With the school closing after 90 years, she will be its last.

       




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Tully: Hard questions surround charging of Noblesville shooter

At what age should crime suspects be charged as adults? It's a question that elicits strong opinions. It's a conversation Indiana needs to have.

       




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Tully: Donald Trump's ultimate betrayal

Donald Trump's heartless immigration policy must be countered by the many Americans who clearly oppose it.

       




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Swarens: Well done, Matt Tully. You served Indiana well.

With Matt Tully's death, our community has lost a strong and passionate advocate for those whose needs are often overlooked, especially children.

       




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IndyStar columnist Matt Tully dies

Tully wrote nearly 2,000 columns for IndyStar over the years, making an impact across Indianapolis.

       




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Matt Tully's legacy: A fund to support early childhood education

Matt Tully was dedicated to his craft and to this community. The Matthew L. Tully Memorial Fund is a meaningful way to keep his memory and work alive.

       




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A colorful morning at the Hendricks County 4-H Fair

A colorful morning at the Hendricks County 4-H Fair

      




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High school football top-10: No. 4 Brownsburg enters 2019 with chip on its shoulder, a lot to prove

Bulldogs have not been able to go over the sectional hump since 2009.

      




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'She could almost stop for some tea before the finish line': Brownsburg's Chloe Dygert Owen wins world title

The 22-year-old rider from Brownsburg became the youngest time trial winner — with the biggest margin — in the history of road cycling's World Championships.

      




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It'll be Plainfield vs. Brownsburg in Hendricks County finals, though Bulldogs missing a key piece

Brownsburg upended Plainfield on Dec. 7 but the Bulldogs will be missing a key player when the two teams meet in the Hendricks County finals.

      




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Could Germany afford Irish, Greek and Portuguese default?

The Western world remains where it has been for some time, delicately poised between anaemic recovery and a shock that could tip us back into economic contraction.

Perhaps the most conspicuous manifestation of the instability is that investors can't make up their minds whether the greater risk comes from surging inflation that stems largely from China's irrepressible growth or the deflationary impact of the unsustainable burden of debt on peripheral and not-so-peripheral eurozone (and other) economies.

And whence do investors flee when it all looks scary and uncertain, especially when there's a heightened probability of specie debasement - to gold, of course.

Unsurprisingly, with the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schauble, implying that a writedown of Greece's sovereign obligations is an option, and with consumer inflation in China hitting 5.4% in March, there has been a flight to the putative safety of precious metal: the gold price hit a new record of $1,480.50 per ounce for June delivery yesterday and could well break through $1,500 within days (say the analysts). Silver is hitting 30-year highs.

In a way, if a sovereign borrower were to turn €100bn of debts (for example) into an obligation to repay 70bn euros, that would be a form of inflation - it has the same economic impact, a degradation of value, for the lender. But it is a localised inflation; only the specific creditors suffer directly (though there may be all sorts of spillover damage for others).

And only this morning there was another blow to the perceived value of a chunk of euro-denominated sovereign obligations. Moody's has downgraded Irish government debt to one level above junk - which is the equivalent of a bookmaker lengthening the odds the on that country's ability to avoid controlled or uncontrolled default.

Some would say that the Irish government has made a start in writing down debt, with the disclosure by the Irish finance minister Michael Noonan yesterday that he would want to impose up to 6bn euros of losses on holders of so-called subordinated loans to Irish banks.

But I suppose the big story in the eurozone, following the decision by the European Central Bank to raise interest rates, is that the region's excessive government and bank debts are more likely to be cut down to manageable size by a restructuring - writedowns of the amount owed - than by generalised inflation that erodes the real value of the principal.

The decision of the ECB to raise rates has to be seen as a policy decision that - in a worst case - a sovereign default by an Ireland, or Greece or Portugal would be less harmful than endemic inflation.

But is that right? How much damage would be wreaked if Greece or Ireland or Portugal attempted to reduce the nominal amount they owe to levels they felt they could afford?

Let's push to one side the reputational and economic costs to those countries - which are quite big things to ignore, by the way - and simply look at the damage to external creditors from a debt write down.

And I am also going to ignore the difference between a planned, consensual reduction in sums owed - a restructuring that takes place with the blessing of the rest of the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund - and a unilateral declaration of de facto bankruptcy by a Greece, Ireland or Portugal (although the shock value of the latter could have much graver consequences for the health of the financial system).

So the first question is how much of the impaired debt is held by institutions and investors that could not afford to take the losses.

Now I hope it isn't naive to assume that pension funds, insurance companies, hedge funds and central banks that hold Greek, or Irish or Portuguese debt can cope with losses generated by a debt restructuring.

The reason for mild optimism in that sense is that those who finance investments made by pension funds and insurers - that's you and me by the way - can't get their money out quickly or easily. We simply have to grin and bear the losses to the value of our savings, when the stewards of our savings make lousy investment decisions.

As for hedge funds, when they make bad bets, they can suffer devastating withdrawals of finance by their investors, as and when the returns generated swing from positive to negative. But so long as those hedge funds haven't borrowed too much, so long as they are not too leveraged - and most aren't these days - the impact on the financial system shouldn't be significant.

Finally, if the European Central Bank - for example - ends up incurring big losses on its substantial holdings of Greek, Portuguese and Irish debt, it can always be recapitalised by solvent eurozone nations, notably by Germany and France.

However this is to ignore the node of fragility in the financial system, the faultline - which is the banking industry.

In the financial system's network of interconnecting assets and liabilities, it is the banks as a cluster that always have the potential to amplify the impact of debt writedowns, in a way that can wreak wider havoc.

That's built into their main function, as maturity transformers. Since banks' creditors can always demand their money back at whim, but banks can't retrieve their loans from their creditors (homeowners, businesses, governments), bank losses above the norm can be painful both for banks and for the rest of us.

Any event that undermines confidence in the safety of money lent to banks, will - in a best case - make it more difficult for a bank to borrow and lend, and will, in the worst case, tip the bank into insolvency.


Which, of course, is what we saw on a global systemic scale from the summer of 2007 to the end of 2008. That's when creditors to banks became increasingly anxious about potential losses faced by banks from a great range of loans and investments, starting with US sub-prime.

So what we need to know is whether the banking system could afford losses generated by Greek, Irish and Portuguese defaults.

And to assess this, we need to know how much overseas banks have lent to the governments of these countries and also - probably - to the banks of these countries, in that recent painful experience has told us that bank liabilities become sovereign liabilities, when the going gets tough.

According to the latest published analysis by the Bank for International Settlements (the central bankers'central bank), the total exposure of overseas banks to the governments and banks of Greece, Portugal and Ireland is "just" $362.2bn, or £224bn,

Now let's make the heroic guess that a rational writedown of this debt to a sustainable level would see a third of it written off - which would generate $121bn (£75bn) of losses for banks outside the countries concerned.

If those loans were spread relatively evenly between banks around the world, losses on that scale would be a headache, but nothing worse.

But this tainted cookie doesn't crumble quite like that. Just under a third of the relevant exposure to public sector and banks of the three debt-challenged states, some $118bn, sits on the balance sheets of German banks, according to the BIS.

For all the formidable strength of the German economy, the balance sheets of Germany's banks are by no means the strongest in the world. German banks would not be able to shrug off $39bn or £24bn of potential losses on Portuguese, Irish and Greek loans as a matter of little consequence.

This suggests that it is in the German national interest to help Portugal, Ireland and Greece avoid default.

If you are a Greek, Portuguese or Irish citizen this might bring on something of a wry smile - because you would probably be aware that the more punitive of the bailout terms imposed by the eurozone on these countries (or about to be imposed in Portugal's case) is the expression of a German desire to spank reckless borrowers.

But as I have mentioned here before, reckless lending can be the moral (or immoral) equivalent of reckless borrowing. And German banks were not models of Lutheran prudence in that regard.

If punitive bailout terms make it more likely that Ireland, Greece or Portugal will eventually default, you might wonder whether there has been an element of masochism in the German government's negotiating position.




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IndyCar could be dancing with the stars again

FORT WORTH, Texas -- It appears an IndyCar Series driver will be dancing next month on national television.

      




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Here's what the fall semester could look like for Indiana's colleges and universities

As colleges look to the fall semester, they're faced with the uncertainty of what it will look like. But plans are underway.

       




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Notre Dame turns down $5.8 million in stimulus money amid endowment criticism

The private Catholic university in South Bend with $11 billion in reserves follows similar decisions by other endowment-rich institutions.

       




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'Bolsonaro é líder mais isolado do populismo de direita hoje', diz pesquisador do extremismo político

Para Cas Mudde, que há três décadas estuda movimentos de ultradireita, presidente brasileiro pode sair politicamente enfraquecido da pandemia de covid-19.




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O sul-coreano que dá abrigo e aula em casa para 10 meninos que fugiram da Coreia do Norte

Kim Tae- hoon, de 45 anos, cuida de 10 meninos norte-coreanos que desertaram do regime repressivo de Pyongyang sem seus pais; o mais novo tem apenas 10 anos e o mais velho, 22.




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Bolsonaro terá 'centrão', mas impeachment pode avançar se houver apoio popular, dizem autores de pedido

Ciro Gomes (PDT), Kim Kataguiri (DEM), Joice Hasselmann (PSL), Alessandro Molon (PSB) e outros autores de pedidos de impeachment de Bolsonaro avaliam as chances do impedimento prosseguir no Congresso.




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O culto religioso que levou o coronavírus a cidade de MS

Cerimônia religiosa com mais de 30 pessoas foi organizada para receber dupla vinda de Osasco (SP); dias depois, os dois testaram positivo para covid-19.




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'Coronavírus pode acabar com minha oportunidade de ser mãe': mulheres sofrem com suspensão de tratamento de fertilidade

Casais com problemas de fertilidade que estavam passando por processo de fertilização in vitro no Brasil temem perder chance de ter filhos por causa da pandemia.




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Dia do trabalhador sem estatística de emprego: governo não divulga número de contratações e demissões desde janeiro

Governo pretende divulgar os dados atrasados em maio, segundo afirmou à BBC News Brasil secretário do Trabalho do Ministério da Economia, Bruno Dalcolmo.




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'A reação do governo parecia cena de filme': como é ter covid-19 na Coreia do Sul

A experiência do comerciante Ho Song, que vive no Brasil e foi diagnosticado na Coreia do Sul, ajuda a entender como o país asiático se tornou uma referência no combate ao coronavírus.




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Coronavírus: estudo com coquetel de remédios tem bons resultados contra a covid-19, mostra The Lancet

Em estudo clínico randomizado controlado, pessoas que receberam as substâncias interferon beta 1-b, lopinavir-ritonavir e ribavirin tiveram tempo menor para alta e desaparecimento do vírus, na comparação com o grupo controle.




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Os 15 capítulos na queda de braço sobre exames de covid-19 de Bolsonaro

O presidente do STJ, João Otávio Noronha, suspendeu decisão que obrigava o presidente Jair Bolsonaro a entregar laudos de exames para detectar se ele foi infectado pelo coronavírus.




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Why 'aggressive' IU basketball target Anthony Harris says Hoosiers would be a good fit

Victor Oladipo made the move from Team Takeover to IU star. Hoosiers have their sights set on another guard from his AAU team.