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On Stationary-Point Hitting Time and Ergodicity of Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics

Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) is a fundamental algorithm in stochastic optimization. Recent work by Zhang et al. (2017) presents an analysis for the hitting time of SGLD for the first and second order stationary points. The proof in Zhang et al. (2017) is a two-stage procedure through bounding the Cheeger's constant, which is rather complicated and leads to loose bounds. In this paper, using intuitions from stochastic differential equations, we provide a direct analysis for the hitting times of SGLD to the first and second order stationary points. Our analysis is straightforward. It only relies on basic linear algebra and probability theory tools. Our direct analysis also leads to tighter bounds comparing to Zhang et al. (2017) and shows the explicit dependence of the hitting time on different factors, including dimensionality, smoothness, noise strength, and step size effects. Under suitable conditions, we show that the hitting time of SGLD to first-order stationary points can be dimension-independent. Moreover, we apply our analysis to study several important online estimation problems in machine learning, including linear regression, matrix factorization, and online PCA.




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Crime Prevention at Home




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Recent developments in complex and spatially correlated functional data

Israel Martínez-Hernández, Marc G. Genton.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 34, Number 2, 204--229.

Abstract:
As high-dimensional and high-frequency data are being collected on a large scale, the development of new statistical models is being pushed forward. Functional data analysis provides the required statistical methods to deal with large-scale and complex data by assuming that data are continuous functions, for example, realizations of a continuous process (curves) or continuous random field (surfaces), and that each curve or surface is considered as a single observation. Here, we provide an overview of functional data analysis when data are complex and spatially correlated. We provide definitions and estimators of the first and second moments of the corresponding functional random variable. We present two main approaches: The first assumes that data are realizations of a functional random field, that is, each observation is a curve with a spatial component. We call them spatial functional data . The second approach assumes that data are continuous deterministic fields observed over time. In this case, one observation is a surface or manifold, and we call them surface time series . For these two approaches, we describe software available for the statistical analysis. We also present a data illustration, using a high-resolution wind speed simulated dataset, as an example of the two approaches. The functional data approach offers a new paradigm of data analysis, where the continuous processes or random fields are considered as a single entity. We consider this approach to be very valuable in the context of big data.




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Time series of count data: A review, empirical comparisons and data analysis

Glaura C. Franco, Helio S. Migon, Marcos O. Prates.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 4, 756--781.

Abstract:
Observation and parameter driven models are commonly used in the literature to analyse time series of counts. In this paper, we study the characteristics of a variety of models and point out the main differences and similarities among these procedures, concerning parameter estimation, model fitting and forecasting. Alternatively to the literature, all inference was performed under the Bayesian paradigm. The models are fitted with a latent AR($p$) process in the mean, which accounts for autocorrelation in the data. An extensive simulation study shows that the estimates for the covariate parameters are remarkably similar across the different models. However, estimates for autoregressive coefficients and forecasts of future values depend heavily on the underlying process which generates the data. A real data set of bankruptcy in the United States is also analysed.




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A brief review of optimal scaling of the main MCMC approaches and optimal scaling of additive TMCMC under non-regular cases

Kushal K. Dey, Sourabh Bhattacharya.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 2, 222--266.

Abstract:
Transformation based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC) was proposed by Dutta and Bhattacharya ( Statistical Methodology 16 (2014) 100–116) as an efficient alternative to the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, especially in high dimensions. The main advantage of this algorithm is that it simultaneously updates all components of a high dimensional parameter using appropriate move types defined by deterministic transformation of a single random variable. This results in reduction in time complexity at each step of the chain and enhances the acceptance rate. In this paper, we first provide a brief review of the optimal scaling theory for various existing MCMC approaches, comparing and contrasting them with the corresponding TMCMC approaches.The optimal scaling of the simplest form of TMCMC, namely additive TMCMC , has been studied extensively for the Gaussian proposal density in Dey and Bhattacharya (2017a). Here, we discuss diffusion-based optimal scaling behavior of additive TMCMC for non-Gaussian proposal densities—in particular, uniform, Student’s $t$ and Cauchy proposals. Although we could not formally prove our diffusion result for the Cauchy proposal, simulation based results lead us to conjecture that at least the recipe for obtaining general optimal scaling and optimal acceptance rate holds for the Cauchy case as well. We also consider diffusion based optimal scaling of TMCMC when the target density is discontinuous. Such non-regular situations have been studied in the case of Random Walk Metropolis Hastings (RWMH) algorithm by Neal and Roberts ( Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability 13 (2011) 583–601) using expected squared jumping distance (ESJD), but the diffusion theory based scaling has not been considered. We compare our diffusion based optimally scaled TMCMC approach with the ESJD based optimally scaled RWM with simulation studies involving several target distributions and proposal distributions including the challenging Cauchy proposal case, showing that additive TMCMC outperforms RWMH in almost all cases considered.




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Figuring racism in medieval Christianity

Kaplan, M. Lindsay, author.
9780190678241 hardcover alkaline paper




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A review of dynamic network models with latent variables

Bomin Kim, Kevin H. Lee, Lingzhou Xue, Xiaoyue Niu.

Source: Statistics Surveys, Volume 12, 105--135.

Abstract:
We present a selective review of statistical modeling of dynamic networks. We focus on models with latent variables, specifically, the latent space models and the latent class models (or stochastic blockmodels), which investigate both the observed features and the unobserved structure of networks. We begin with an overview of the static models, and then we introduce the dynamic extensions. For each dynamic model, we also discuss its applications that have been studied in the literature, with the data source listed in Appendix. Based on the review, we summarize a list of open problems and challenges in dynamic network modeling with latent variables.




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Statistical inference for dynamical systems: A review

Kevin McGoff, Sayan Mukherjee, Natesh Pillai.

Source: Statistics Surveys, Volume 9, 209--252.

Abstract:
The topic of statistical inference for dynamical systems has been studied widely across several fields. In this survey we focus on methods related to parameter estimation for nonlinear dynamical systems. Our objective is to place results across distinct disciplines in a common setting and highlight opportunities for further research.




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Log-concavity and strong log-concavity: A review

Adrien Saumard, Jon A. Wellner.

Source: Statistics Surveys, Volume 8, 45--114.

Abstract:
We review and formulate results concerning log-concavity and strong-log-concavity in both discrete and continuous settings. We show how preservation of log-concavity and strong log-concavity on $mathbb{R}$ under convolution follows from a fundamental monotonicity result of Efron (1965). We provide a new proof of Efron’s theorem using the recent asymmetric Brascamp-Lieb inequality due to Otto and Menz (2013). Along the way we review connections between log-concavity and other areas of mathematics and statistics, including concentration of measure, log-Sobolev inequalities, convex geometry, MCMC algorithms, Laplace approximations, and machine learning.




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Prediction in several conventional contexts

Bertrand Clarke, Jennifer Clarke

Source: Statist. Surv., Volume 6, 1--73.

Abstract:
We review predictive techniques from several traditional branches of statistics. Starting with prediction based on the normal model and on the empirical distribution function, we proceed to techniques for various forms of regression and classification. Then, we turn to time series, longitudinal data, and survival analysis. Our focus throughout is on the mechanics of prediction more than on the properties of predictors.




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A review of survival trees

Imad Bou-Hamad, Denis Larocque, Hatem Ben-Ameur

Source: Statist. Surv., Volume 5, 44--71.

Abstract:
This paper presents a non–technical account of the developments in tree–based methods for the analysis of survival data with censoring. This review describes the initial developments, which mainly extended the existing basic tree methodologies to censored data as well as to more recent work. We also cover more complex models, more specialized methods, and more specific problems such as multivariate data, the use of time–varying covariates, discrete–scale survival data, and ensemble methods applied to survival trees. A data example is used to illustrate some methods that are implemented in R.




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Data confidentiality: A review of methods for statistical disclosure limitation and methods for assessing privacy

Gregory J. Matthews, Ofer Harel

Source: Statist. Surv., Volume 5, 1--29.

Abstract:
There is an ever increasing demand from researchers for access to useful microdata files. However, there are also growing concerns regarding the privacy of the individuals contained in the microdata. Ideally, microdata could be released in such a way that a balance between usefulness of the data and privacy is struck. This paper presents a review of proposed methods of statistical disclosure control and techniques for assessing the privacy of such methods under different definitions of disclosure.

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Karr, A., Kohnen, C.N., Oganian, A., Reiter, J.P., Sanil, A.P., 2006. A framework for evaluating the utility of data altered to protect confidentiality. American Statistician 60 (3), 224–232.

Kaufman, S., Seastrom, M., Roey, S., 2005. Do disclosure controls to protect confidentiality degrade the quality of the data? In: American Statistical Association, Proceedings of the Section on Survey Research.

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Kim, J., 1986. Limiting disclosure in microdata based on random noise and transformation. Bureau of the Census.

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Li, N., Li, T., Venkatasubramanian, S., 2007. t-closeness: Privacy beyond k-anonymity and l-diversity. In: Data Engineering, 2007. ICDE 2007. IEEE 23rd International Conference on. pp. 106–115.

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Liu, F., Little, R.J.A., 2002. Selective multiple mputation of keys for statistical disclosure control in microdata. In: Proceedings Joint Statistical Meet. pp. 2133–2138.

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Matthews, G.J., Harel, O., Aseltine, R.H., 2010a. Assessing database privacy using the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve. Health Services and Outcomes Research Methodology 10 (1), 1–15.

Matthews, G.J., Harel, O., Aseltine, R.H., 2010b. Examining the robustness of fully synthetic data techniques for data with binary variables. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation 80 (6), 609–624.

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Nissim, K., Raskhodnikova, S., Smith, A., 2007. Smooth sensitivity and sampling in private data analysis. In: STOC ’07: Proceedings of the thirty-ninth annual ACM symposium on Theory of computing. pp. 75–84.

Paass, G., 1988. Disclosure risk and disclosure avoidance for microdata. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 6 (4), 487–500.

Palley, M., Simonoff, J., 1987. The use of regression methodology for the compromise of confidential information in statistical databases. ACM Trans. Database Systems 12 (4), 593–608.

Raghunathan, T.E., Reiter, J.P., Rubin, D.B., 2003. Multiple imputation for statistical disclosure limitation. Journal of Official Statistics 19 (1), 1–16.

Rajasekaran, S., Harel, O., Zuba, M., Matthews, G.J., Aseltine, Jr., R., 2009. Responsible data releases. In: Proceedings 9th Industrial Conference on Data Mining (ICDM). Springer LNCS, pp. 388–400.

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Reiter, J.P., 2002. Satisfying disclosure restriction with synthetic data sets. Journal of Official Statistics 18 (4), 531–543.

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Reiter, J.P., 2004b. Simultaneous use of multiple imputation for missing data and disclosure limitation. Survey Methodology 30 (2), 235–242.

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FNNC: Achieving Fairness through Neural Networks. (arXiv:1811.00247v3 [cs.LG] UPDATED)

In classification models fairness can be ensured by solving a constrained optimization problem. We focus on fairness constraints like Disparate Impact, Demographic Parity, and Equalized Odds, which are non-decomposable and non-convex. Researchers define convex surrogates of the constraints and then apply convex optimization frameworks to obtain fair classifiers. Surrogates serve only as an upper bound to the actual constraints, and convexifying fairness constraints might be challenging.

We propose a neural network-based framework, emph{FNNC}, to achieve fairness while maintaining high accuracy in classification. The above fairness constraints are included in the loss using Lagrangian multipliers. We prove bounds on generalization errors for the constrained losses which asymptotically go to zero. The network is optimized using two-step mini-batch stochastic gradient descent. Our experiments show that FNNC performs as good as the state of the art, if not better. The experimental evidence supplements our theoretical guarantees. In summary, we have an automated solution to achieve fairness in classification, which is easily extendable to many fairness constraints.




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Reference and Document Aware Semantic Evaluation Methods for Korean Language Summarization. (arXiv:2005.03510v1 [cs.CL])

Text summarization refers to the process that generates a shorter form of text from the source document preserving salient information. Recently, many models for text summarization have been proposed. Most of those models were evaluated using recall-oriented understudy for gisting evaluation (ROUGE) scores. However, as ROUGE scores are computed based on n-gram overlap, they do not reflect semantic meaning correspondences between generated and reference summaries. Because Korean is an agglutinative language that combines various morphemes into a word that express several meanings, ROUGE is not suitable for Korean summarization. In this paper, we propose evaluation metrics that reflect semantic meanings of a reference summary and the original document, Reference and Document Aware Semantic Score (RDASS). We then propose a method for improving the correlation of the metrics with human judgment. Evaluation results show that the correlation with human judgment is significantly higher for our evaluation metrics than for ROUGE scores.




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A stochastic user-operator assignment game for microtransit service evaluation: A case study of Kussbus in Luxembourg. (arXiv:2005.03465v1 [physics.soc-ph])

This paper proposes a stochastic variant of the stable matching model from Rasulkhani and Chow [1] which allows microtransit operators to evaluate their operation policy and resource allocations. The proposed model takes into account the stochastic nature of users' travel utility perception, resulting in a probabilistic stable operation cost allocation outcome to design ticket price and ridership forecasting. We applied the model for the operation policy evaluation of a microtransit service in Luxembourg and its border area. The methodology for the model parameters estimation and calibration is developed. The results provide useful insights for the operator and the government to improve the ridership of the service.




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Relevance Vector Machine with Weakly Informative Hyperprior and Extended Predictive Information Criterion. (arXiv:2005.03419v1 [stat.ML])

In the variational relevance vector machine, the gamma distribution is representative as a hyperprior over the noise precision of automatic relevance determination prior. Instead of the gamma hyperprior, we propose to use the inverse gamma hyperprior with a shape parameter close to zero and a scale parameter not necessary close to zero. This hyperprior is associated with the concept of a weakly informative prior. The effect of this hyperprior is investigated through regression to non-homogeneous data. Because it is difficult to capture the structure of such data with a single kernel function, we apply the multiple kernel method, in which multiple kernel functions with different widths are arranged for input data. We confirm that the degrees of freedom in a model is controlled by adjusting the scale parameter and keeping the shape parameter close to zero. A candidate for selecting the scale parameter is the predictive information criterion. However the estimated model using this criterion seems to cause over-fitting. This is because the multiple kernel method makes the model a situation where the dimension of the model is larger than the data size. To select an appropriate scale parameter even in such a situation, we also propose an extended prediction information criterion. It is confirmed that a multiple kernel relevance vector regression model with good predictive accuracy can be obtained by selecting the scale parameter minimizing extended prediction information criterion.




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Medieval Ideas about Infertility and Old Age

The next seminar in the 2017–18 History of Pre-Modern Medicine seminar series takes place on Tuesday 16 January. Speaker: Dr Catherine Rider (University of Exeter) Medieval Ideas about Infertility and Old Age Abstract: When they discussed fertility and reproductive disorders it was common… Continue reading




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Wood microbiology : decay and its prevention

Zabel, R. A. (Robert A.), author
9780128205730 (electronic bk.)




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The science of grapevines

Keller, Markus, (horticulturist) author
9780128167021 (electronic bk.)




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The evolution of feathers : from their origin to the present

9783030272234 electronic book




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Structured object-oriented formal language and method : 9th International Workshop, SOFL+MSVL 2019, Shenzhen, China, November 5, 2019, Revised selected papers

SOFL+MSVL (Workshop) (9th : 2019 : Shenzhen, China)
9783030414184 (electronic bk.)




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Space information networks : 4th International Conference, SINC 2019, Wuzhen, China, September 19-20, 2019, Revised Selected Papers

SINC (Conference) (4th : 2019 : Wuzhen, China)
9789811534423 (electronic bk.)




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Semantic technology : 9th Joint International Conference, JIST 2019, Hangzhou, China, November 25-27, 2019, Revised selected papers

Joint International Semantic Technology Conference (9th : 2019 : Hangzhou, China)
9789811534126 (electronic bk.)




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Salt, fat and sugar reduction : sensory approaches for nutritional reformulation of foods and beverages

O'Sullivan, Maurice G., author
9780128226124 (electronic bk.)




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Recent developments on genus Chaetomium

9783030316129 (electronic bk.)




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Prevention of chronic diseases and age-related disability

9783319965291 (electronic bk.)




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Plastic waste and recycling : environmental impact, societal issues, prevention, and solutions

9780128178812 (electronic bk.)




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Plant microRNAs : shaping development and environmental responses

9783030357726 (electronic bk.)




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Mobilities facing hydrometeorological extreme events.

9780081028827 (electronic bk.)




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Insect metamorphosis : from natural history to regulation of development and evolution

Bellés, X., author
9780128130216




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Information retrieval technology : 15th Asia Information Retrieval Societies Conference, AIRS 2019, Hong Kong, China, November 7-9, 2019, proceedings

Asia Information Retrieval Societies Conference (15th : 2019 : Hong Kong, China)
9783030428358




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In china's wake : how the commodity boom transformed development strategies in the global south

Jepson, Nicholas, author.
9780231547598 electronic book




ev

Healthcare-associated infections in children : a guide to prevention and management

9783319981222 (electronic bk.)




ev

Functional foods in cancer prevention and therapy

9780128165386 (electronic bk.)




ev

Evolutionary developmental biology : a reference guide

9783319330389 (electronic bk.)




ev

Enterprise information systems : 21st International Conference, ICEIS 2019, Heraklion, Crete, Greece, May 3-5, 2019, Revised Selected Papers

International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems (21st : 2019 : Ērakleion, Greece)
9783030407834 (electronic bk.)




ev

Development of biopharmaceutical drug-device products

9783030314156 (electronic bk.)




ev

Current developments in biotechnology and bioengineering : resource recovery from wastes

0444643222




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Computer security : ESORICS 2019 International Workshops, IOSec, MSTEC, and FINSEC, Luxembourg City, Luxembourg, September 26-27, 2019, Revised Selected Papers

European Symposium on Research in Computer Security (24th : 2019 : Luxembourg, Luxembourg)
9783030420512 (electronic bk.)




ev

Computational processing of the Portuguese language : 14th International Conference, PROPOR 2020, Evora, Portugal, March 2-4, 2020, Proceedings

PROPOR (Conference) (14th : 2020 : Evora, Portugal)
9783030415051 (electronic bk.)




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Common problems in the newborn nursery : an evidence and case-based guide

9783319956725 (electronic bk.)




ev

Clinical manual of fever in children

El-Radhi, A. Sahib, author.
9783319923369 (electronic book)




ev

Biomedical product development : bench to bedside

9783030356262 (electronic bk.)




ev

Anomalies of the Developing Dentition : a Clinical Guide to Diagnosis and Management

Soxman, Jane A., author.
9783030031640 (electronic bk.)




ev

Jamboree Begins Construction on Capstone Development to Change...

In a public-private partnership to develop housing, resident services and hope for 102 working families in Haster Orangewood community, Jamboree Housing Corporation and the City of Anaheim announce...

(PRWeb April 27, 2020)

Read the full story at https://www.prweb.com/releases/jamboree_begins_construction_on_capstone_development_to_change_trajectory_of_neighborhood_in_anaheim_ca/prweb17073166.htm






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Detecting relevant changes in the mean of nonstationary processes—A mass excess approach

Holger Dette, Weichi Wu.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 47, Number 6, 3578--3608.

Abstract:
This paper considers the problem of testing if a sequence of means $(mu_{t})_{t=1,ldots ,n}$ of a nonstationary time series $(X_{t})_{t=1,ldots ,n}$ is stable in the sense that the difference of the means $mu_{1}$ and $mu_{t}$ between the initial time $t=1$ and any other time is smaller than a given threshold, that is $|mu_{1}-mu_{t}|leq c$ for all $t=1,ldots ,n$. A test for hypotheses of this type is developed using a bias corrected monotone rearranged local linear estimator and asymptotic normality of the corresponding test statistic is established. As the asymptotic variance depends on the location of the roots of the equation $|mu_{1}-mu_{t}|=c$ a new bootstrap procedure is proposed to obtain critical values and its consistency is established. As a consequence we are able to quantitatively describe relevant deviations of a nonstationary sequence from its initial value. The results are illustrated by means of a simulation study and by analyzing data examples.




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A hierarchical Bayesian model for predicting ecological interactions using scaled evolutionary relationships

Mohamad Elmasri, Maxwell J. Farrell, T. Jonathan Davies, David A. Stephens.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 221--240.

Abstract:
Identifying undocumented or potential future interactions among species is a challenge facing modern ecologists. Recent link prediction methods rely on trait data; however, large species interaction databases are typically sparse and covariates are limited to only a fraction of species. On the other hand, evolutionary relationships, encoded as phylogenetic trees, can act as proxies for underlying traits and historical patterns of parasite sharing among hosts. We show that, using a network-based conditional model, phylogenetic information provides strong predictive power in a recently published global database of host-parasite interactions. By scaling the phylogeny using an evolutionary model, our method allows for biological interpretation often missing from latent variable models. To further improve on the phylogeny-only model, we combine a hierarchical Bayesian latent score framework for bipartite graphs that accounts for the number of interactions per species with host dependence informed by phylogeny. Combining the two information sources yields significant improvement in predictive accuracy over each of the submodels alone. As many interaction networks are constructed from presence-only data, we extend the model by integrating a correction mechanism for missing interactions which proves valuable in reducing uncertainty in unobserved interactions.




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Integrative survival analysis with uncertain event times in application to a suicide risk study

Wenjie Wang, Robert Aseltine, Kun Chen, Jun Yan.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 51--73.

Abstract:
The concept of integrating data from disparate sources to accelerate scientific discovery has generated tremendous excitement in many fields. The potential benefits from data integration, however, may be compromised by the uncertainty due to incomplete/imperfect record linkage. Motivated by a suicide risk study, we propose an approach for analyzing survival data with uncertain event times arising from data integration. Specifically, in our problem deaths identified from the hospital discharge records together with reported suicidal deaths determined by the Office of Medical Examiner may still not include all the death events of patients, and the missing deaths can be recovered from a complete database of death records. Since the hospital discharge data can only be linked to the death record data by matching basic patient characteristics, a patient with a censored death time from the first dataset could be linked to multiple potential event records in the second dataset. We develop an integrative Cox proportional hazards regression in which the uncertainty in the matched event times is modeled probabilistically. The estimation procedure combines the ideas of profile likelihood and the expectation conditional maximization algorithm (ECM). Simulation studies demonstrate that under realistic settings of imperfect data linkage the proposed method outperforms several competing approaches including multiple imputation. A marginal screening analysis using the proposed integrative Cox model is performed to identify risk factors associated with death following suicide-related hospitalization in Connecticut. The identified diagnostics codes are consistent with existing literature and provide several new insights on suicide risk, prediction and prevention.