at Pirate's Cove Adventure Golf - $1 off regular admission (up to 6 people) By www.internationaldriveorlando.com Published On :: Thu, 2 Apr 2015 15:19:29 GMT Valid Through: 10/31/2015$1 off regular admission (up to 6 people)8501 International Dr.Orlando, FL 32819 Full Article
at Sushiology - 61 piece sushi platter for $36.00 By www.internationaldriveorlando.com Published On :: Fri, 3 Apr 2015 09:48:16 GMT Valid Through: 4/30/201561 piece sushi platter for $36.006400 International Drive Suite 130Orlando, FL 32819 Full Article
at Zebra's Sports Bar & Grille at Rosen Inn at Pointe Orlando - Sing for Free Beer or Wine By www.internationaldriveorlando.com Published On :: Fri, 3 Apr 2015 11:08:28 GMT Valid Through: 4/30/2015Sing for Free Beer or Wine9000 International DriveOrlando, FL 32819 Full Article
at Orlando International Premium Outlets - free coupon book By www.internationaldriveorlando.com Published On :: Fri, 10 Apr 2015 14:24:05 GMT Valid Through: 10/31/2015free coupon book4951 International DriveOrlando, FL 32819 Full Article
at RISMedia’s 2024 Real Estate Rookie of the Year Revealed at Annual Power Broker Gala By www.rismedia.com Published On :: Sun, 10 Nov 2024 17:26:15 +0000 Above, from left, John Featherston, Tina Lapp, Heather Stenson and Brian Joyner During its 28th Annual Power Broker Reception & Dinner held at the Renaissance Boston Seaport Hotel Friday night, RISMedia announced its 2024 Real Estate Rookie of the Year winner, Heather Stenson, a REALTORⓇ with Connect Realty in The Woodlands, Texas. Designed to honor… The post RISMedia’s 2024 Real Estate Rookie of the Year Revealed at Annual Power Broker Gala appeared first on RISMedia. Full Article Agents Best Practices Brokers Industry News Latest News Luxury National News Teams 2024 Real Estate Rookie of the Year 28th Annual Power Broker Reception & Dinner Colibri Real Estate Real Estate Events Renaissance Boston Seaport Hotel
at Court Report: DOJ’s Future Unclear; Weichert Latest Brokerage to Settle Commission Lawsuit By www.rismedia.com Published On :: Tue, 12 Nov 2024 16:53:36 +0000 The COURT REPORT is RISMedia’s weekly look at current and upcoming lawsuits, investigations and other legal developments around real estate. Search for new Attorney General underway Given the ongoing antitrust investigation into the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) by the Department of Justice (DOJ), any shakeup at the DOJ could have ripple effects on the… The post Court Report: DOJ’s Future Unclear; Weichert Latest Brokerage to Settle Commission Lawsuit appeared first on RISMedia. Full Article Agents Brokers Industry News Latest News National News Premier Attorney General Court Report Department of Justice DOJ Housing Politics Lawsuit Settlements Lawsuits MLSNewsFeed NAR Politics Real Estate Lawsuits Settlement Trump
at Pets, Politics and Presidents: Yun Forecasts Economy, Policy at NAR NXT By www.rismedia.com Published On :: Tue, 12 Nov 2024 17:33:01 +0000 Boston, MA—Addressing an audience of hundreds on yet another big stage last week, Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), acknowledged that the broad-based real estate rally that he and many other economists have been predicting has not—and will not—happen this year. “As you know, 2024 has been a very… The post Pets, Politics and Presidents: Yun Forecasts Economy, Policy at NAR NXT appeared first on RISMedia. Full Article Agents Brokers Industry News Latest News Lead Story National News Premier annualized home sales case-shiller home price Existing-Home Sales Feature Lawrence Yun MLS MLSNewsFeed MLSSpotlight NAR National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales Real Estate Sales trump tariffs
at Anthony Hitt Stepping Down as Engel & Völkers America CEO at the End of 2024 By www.rismedia.com Published On :: Tue, 12 Nov 2024 18:59:00 +0000 Above, Anthony Hitt Engel & Völkers America announced today that longtime CEO Anthony Hitt will be stepping down from his position come Dec. 31, 2024. A release said that Hitt is resigning to focus on “personal interests.” “Developing and guiding Engel & Völkers in the Americas has been a true privilege and one of my… The post Anthony Hitt Stepping Down as Engel & Völkers America CEO at the End of 2024 appeared first on RISMedia. Full Article Industry News Latest News National News Premier Anthony Hitt CEO Engel & Völkers Engel & Völkers America resignation Stuart Siegel
at Century 21 Expands into Washington State’s Pacific County By www.rismedia.com Published On :: Tue, 12 Nov 2024 20:38:15 +0000 Century 21 Real Estate LLC has announced it is growing its network along the Pacific Coast with its latest affiliation of Pacific Realty, based in Long Beach, Washington. The boutique firm has served communities along the coast for roughly 50 years, most recently under the leadership of Leslie Brophy. Under Brophy’s leadership, the firm and… The post Century 21 Expands into Washington State’s Pacific County appeared first on RISMedia. Full Article Agents Brokers Industry News Latest News National News Affiliation CENTURY 21 CENTURY 21 Pacific Realty Century 21 Real Estate Expansion Pacific County Pacific Realty Washington
at Healthy Eating On The Go By beansnotbambi.wordpress.com Published On :: Fri, 10 Apr 2015 13:56:52 +0000 I have finally solved the great mystery of making healthful choices outside of the house. As with many great mysteries, the solution was right in front of me the whole time. It’s advice I’ve given to others over the years but never applied it to this degree before. Prepare your own food as much as […] Full Article Health and Wellness
at Rededicating After an Upset By beansnotbambi.wordpress.com Published On :: Wed, 29 Apr 2015 00:58:50 +0000 How many times have you gone into a vacation with the best of intentions, only to get derailed by temptation? Or maybe you give yourself a vacation from healthful living while you’re away and intend to get right back on track afterward. Did you know the average cruise passenger gains 7-10 lbs on a week […] Full Article Health and Wellness
at The Key to Ultimate Weight Loss By beansnotbambi.wordpress.com Published On :: Tue, 19 May 2015 13:00:00 +0000 In response to my recent success story I’ve been getting a lot of questions about exactly what I’m doing. What is the Ultimate Weight Loss Program and how do I get started? The “program”, as I usually refer to it, was originally taught as a multi-day seminar in-person by Chef AJ and John Pierre in Los […] Full Article Health and Wellness
at Assistant Professor, Video Games & Digital Art: Louisiana State University By jobs.gamasutra.com Published On :: 2022-09-27 Job Description: Responsibilities include teaching, advising and working with undergraduate and graduate students. Candidate will: sustain an active record of scholarship in an area that intersects with digital art or video games; participate in the development of courses and curricula; and contribute to service activities such as outreach to high schools and serving the School, College, and University on committees. Initial responsibilities include engagement with the LSU Cain Center to aid in video games and esports curriculum development for the Digital Design & Emerging Media Pathway. Candidate will also maintain a commitment to ensuring an inclusive and collaborative environment that promotes diversity and creative freedom for those involved in the digital art and video games entangled communities. Required Qualifications:● Master’s degree, doctorate, OR combination of bachelor’s and commensurateexperience/practice in a field relevant to digital art and video games.● An equivalent combination of education and experience in digital art and video games sufficient to successfully perform the essential duties of the job. Additional Job Description: Special Instructions To receive full consideration, please provide the following: (1) a letter of application (cover memo) with a narrative description of your background, interests and qualifications for the position (3-page maximum). Describe courses you are qualified to teach and/or classes you have taught in the past, your research interests and scholarly activities, and relevant practice experience. Submissions must also include: (2) a curriculum vita; (3) the names, addresses, telephone numbers, and e-mail addresses of three references; and (4) links to or examples of at least 3 scholarly/creative works. A copy of your transcript(s) may be attached to yourapplication; however, original transcripts can be provided prior to hire. Please attach ALL documents in a single PDF under the Resume/CV section of your application. Application review will begin immediately, and will continue until a candidate is selected. The position will remain open until filled. More information about the College of Art & Design, School of Art, Digital Art concentration, and Digital Media Arts & Engineering program are available at http://design.lsu.edu, http://art.lsu.edu, http://digitalart.lsu.edu, and http://dmae.lsu.edu. Special Instructions: The School of Art at Louisiana State University seeks a full-time, tenure-track Assistant Professor in the area of Video Games & Digital Art. The successful candidate will be an innovative and dedicated practitioner and educator, with demonstrable skills in video game and digital art related fields which fall within the broad academic scope and research/creative activities of the School of Art and Digital Media Arts and Engineering programs. Candidates withclear evidence of potential for excellence in teaching, research, and service are encouraged to apply. Posting Date: August 9, 2022 Closing Date (Open Until Filled if No Date Specified): Additional Position Information: Background Check - An offer of employment is contingent on a satisfactory pre-employment background check. Benefits - LSU offers outstanding benefits to eligible employees and their dependents including health, life, dental, and vision insurance; flexible spending accounts; retirement options; various leave options; paid holidays; wellness benefits; tuition exemption for qualified positions; training and development opportunities; employee discounts; and more! Essential Position (Y/N): LSU is an Equal Opportunity Employer: LSU believes diversity, equity, and inclusion enrich the educational experience of our students, faculty, and staff, and are necessary to prepare all people to thrive personally and professionally in a global society. We celebrate diversity and are committed to the principles of diversity and inclusion. We actively seek and encourage qualified applications from persons with diverse backgrounds, cultures and experiences. To learn more about how LSU is committed to diversity and inclusivity, please see LSU’s Diversity Statement and Roadmap. Persons needing accommodations or assistance with the accessibility of materials related to this search are encouraged to contact the Office of Human Resource Management (hr@lsu.edu). HCM Contact Information: Questions or concerns can be directed to the LSU Human Resources Management Office at 225-578-8200 or emailed HR@lsu.edu Full Article
at The Lake House: A 2020 Update By diydiva.net Published On :: Tue, 08 Dec 2020 01:33:32 +0000 If there’s a satisfying update to be had this year, it’s most likely because my mom has been making a lot of progress updating the Lake House, almost entirely without my help. I did build the deck stairs, and one time wedged myself through this tiny hole to fix a broken hose spigot… 1.) Yes, […] Full Article The Lake House
at Well, That’s Different By diydiva.net Published On :: Thu, 13 May 2021 17:43:59 +0000 After a number of years with just exposed OSB subfloor (and a couple of rugs) as the flooring in my kitchen… It now has (part of) a floor. Do not be fooled by that picture. It is still mostly this… I have been avoiding this project for actual years because 1.) I couldn’t find flooring […] Full Article The Farm & Very Old House
at SCCM Pod-435 Intracranial and Cerebral Perfusion Pressure Thresholds Associated with In-Hospital Mortality Across Pediatric Neurocritical Care By sccm-audio.s3.amazonaws.com Published On :: Wed, 28 Apr 2021 13:30:00 -0500 Targets for treatment of raised intracranial pressure or decreased cerebral perfusion pressure in pediatric neurocritical care are not well defined. Full Article Medicine
at SCCMPod-442 Continuous Prediction of Mortality in the PICU: A Recurrent Neural Network Model in a Single-Center Dataset By sccm-audio.s3.amazonaws.com Published On :: Thu, 2 Sep 2021 18:18:58 UTC As a proof of concept, a recurrent neural network (RNN) model was developed using electronic medical record (EMR) data capable of continuously assessing a child's risk of mortality throughout an ICU stay as a proxy measure of illness severity. Full Article Medicine
at SCCMPod-445 The Association of Workload and Outcomes in the Pediatric Cardiac ICU By sccm-audio.s3.amazonaws.com Published On :: Thu, 14 Oct 2021 19:20:17 UTC Healthcare workload has emerged as an important metric associated with poor outcomes. To measure workload, studies have used bed occupancy as a surrogate. However, few studies have examined frontline clinician workload and outcomes. Full Article Medicine
at SCCMPod-447 eSIMPLER: A Dynamic, Electronic Health Record-Integrated Checklist By sccm-audio.s3.amazonaws.com Published On :: Thu, 28 Oct 2021 17:49:39 UTC The increasing use of electronic health records (EHRs) has inspired the need for a more dynamic checklist. Geva et al conducted a before-after quality improvement study by replacing a static checklist with an updated dynamic checklist. Full Article Medicine
at Operator "A" (Water) (Employment Opportunity & Training Opportunity) EX21-973 By www.greatersudbury.ca Published On :: Tue, 07 Dec 2021 16:53:26 GMT Full Article
at 899 The Future of Photography Education By tipsfromthetopfloor.com Published On :: Sat, 27 Jun 2020 19:28:43 +0000 In this episode Chris looks at creativity, how it often depends on the right puzzle pieces to come together at the right time, and how a little bit (or a lot) of pressure can bring this all together and allow you to make it into something entirely new. Like the new interactive teaching platform that … Continue reading "899 The Future of Photography Education" The post 899 The Future of Photography Education appeared first on PHOTOGRAPHY TIPS FROM THE TOP FLOOR. Full Article Tips from the Top Floor "Photo Sensi" creativity pressure
at Join me at Out of Chicago IN-DEPTH and GET $50 OFF By tipsfromthetopfloor.com Published On :: Sun, 02 Aug 2020 17:16:07 +0000 Aug 21-23 2020 will bring you an exciting live online photography workshop weekend with 35+ advanced, exciting sessions from world-class photographers (and I still can’t believe that I got accepted to teach with them! Yey! o/) For each session, two photographers will team up to deep-dive into a topic from multiple angles. And I couldn’t … Continue reading "Join me at Out of Chicago IN-DEPTH and GET $50 OFF" The post Join me at Out of Chicago IN-DEPTH and GET $50 OFF appeared first on PHOTOGRAPHY TIPS FROM THE TOP FLOOR. Full Article Tips from the Top Floor
at 904 Evacuated (Are we obsolete?) By tipsfromthetopfloor.com Published On :: Sat, 17 Apr 2021 14:54:22 +0000 Chris talks about a profound realization he had a few years ago. It’s about the way we learn and why we might benefit from a bit of Dunning Kruger Syndrome in the process. Guest on today’s show: Allan Attridge. We talk about our own obsolescence. A fun topic for a weekend for shure ???? Watch … Continue reading "904 Evacuated (Are we obsolete?)" The post 904 Evacuated (Are we obsolete?) appeared first on PHOTOGRAPHY TIPS FROM THE TOP FLOOR. Full Article Interviews Tips from the Top Floor Allan Attridge obsolete
at 909 Generator Chris By tipsfromthetopfloor.com Published On :: Wed, 20 Jul 2022 11:00:23 +0000 Chris has now received the magical tool to generate photography out of thin air. But OpenAi’s DALL-E 2 is turning out to be quite a learning curve that is very different from actual photography. Topics: [PHOTO, AI] I’m a Generator : I finally got access to DALL-E 2, OpenAi’s image generator. And boy is it … Continue reading "909 Generator Chris" The post 909 Generator Chris appeared first on PHOTOGRAPHY TIPS FROM THE TOP FLOOR. Full Article Tips from the Top Floor AI Dall-E OpenAI Photo Road Trip Skills
at 920 Death of a Workhorse By tipsfromthetopfloor.com Published On :: Wed, 12 Oct 2022 22:06:12 +0000 Chris brings you a bit of a different episode today because his main production machine has just died. Want to support? Go to tfttf.com/support Topics: [OTHER] Pellworm : We spent a week on Pellworm, a 37 square kilometer island located in the Wadden Sea. We’ve taken pictures too. [COOL] Lost Places – Horror-Hospital … AI … Continue reading "920 Death of a Workhorse" The post 920 Death of a Workhorse appeared first on PHOTOGRAPHY TIPS FROM THE TOP FLOOR. Full Article Tips from the Top Floor computer North Sea Pellworm
at 931 The Moon Cheat By tipsfromthetopfloor.com Published On :: Sat, 18 Mar 2023 20:54:32 +0000 A special episode with a special guest. Don Komarechka is back on the show. He and Chris discuss HP and their DRM, Samsung and their moon cheat and a German lawsuit involving a photo wallpaper. It’s also the week of the GPT-4 release and the two prove that they are geeks beyond photography. Topics: [OTHER] … Continue reading "931 The Moon Cheat" The post 931 The Moon Cheat appeared first on PHOTOGRAPHY TIPS FROM THE TOP FLOOR. Full Article Interviews Tips from the Top Floor Don Komarechka drm GPT interview moon
at She wants to know what are best practices on flagging bad responses and cleaning survey data and detecting bad responses. Any suggestions from the tidyverse or crunch.io? By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Sun, 13 Oct 2024 13:36:03 +0000 A colleague who works in a field that uses a lot of survey research asks: Can you recommend papers about detecting bad survey responses? We have some such methods where I work, but I’m curious what the Census Bureau and … Continue reading → Full Article Miscellaneous Statistics Political Science Public Health Sociology
at Here is the Data Sharing Statement, in its entirety, for van Dyck CH, Swanson CJ, Aisen P, et al. Trial of Lecanemab in Early Alzheimer’s Disease. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2212948. By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Wed, 16 Oct 2024 13:06:27 +0000 Data-share this, pal: As the man said, you have no obligation to share any of your data and I have no obligation to believe anything you say. Full Article Decision Analysis Public Health Zombies
at Here is the Data Sharing Statement, in its entirety, for Goodwin GM, Aaronson ST, Alvarez O, et al. Single-Dose Psilocybin for a Treatment-Resistant Episode of Major Depression. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2206443. By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Wed, 16 Oct 2024 13:32:11 +0000 As forwarded to us by Max Shepsi: I’m starting to see a pattern here! Full Article Decision Analysis Public Health Zombies
at Different perspectives on the claims in the paper, The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Thu, 17 Oct 2024 13:25:11 +0000 I was talking with an economist today about the recent prize given to the authors of the very influential 2001 article, The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation. According to my colleague, many economists have issues with that … Continue reading → Full Article Causal Inference Economics Political Science
at Columbia Surgery Prof Fake Data Update . . . (yes, he’s still being promoted on the university webpage) By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Fri, 18 Oct 2024 00:11:03 +0000 Someone pointed me to this news article with the delightful url, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/16/science/sam-yoon-columbia-cancer-surgeon-5-more-retractions.html: Columbia Cancer Surgeon Notches 5 More Retractions for Suspicious Data The chief of a cancer surgery division at Columbia University this week had five research articles retracted and … Continue reading → Full Article Zombies
at What is the purpose of a methods section? By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Sun, 20 Oct 2024 13:47:22 +0000 A frustrating aspect of science papers is that the methods section doesn’t fully describe what was actually done. It can take a lot of sleuthing to figure out how to reconstruct published results—and that doesn’t even get into all the … Continue reading → Full Article Literature Miscellaneous Science Sociology
at Supporting Bayesian modeling workflows with iterative filtering for multiverse analysis By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Mon, 21 Oct 2024 13:16:30 +0000 Anna Riha, Nikolas Siccha, Antti Oulasvirta, and Aki Vehtari write: When building statistical models for Bayesian data analysis tasks, required and optional iterative adjustments and different modelling choices can give rise to numerous candidate models. In particular, checks and evaluations … Continue reading → Full Article Bayesian Statistics Miscellaneous Statistics Stan Statistical Computing
at ChatGPT o1-preview can code Stan By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Tue, 22 Oct 2024 19:00:26 +0000 This is Bob. Yes, but can it Stan? The first few instantiations of ChatGPT haven’t been so good at Stan. This is perhaps not surprising, because there’s relatively little written about Stan on the web compared to, say, Python, C++, … Continue reading → Full Article Bayesian Statistics Stan Statistical Computing
at Which book should you read first, Active Statistics or Regression and Other Stories? By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Wed, 23 Oct 2024 13:25:40 +0000 Kiran Gauthier writes: I was checking the web pages for Active Statistics and Regression and Other Stories and although I saw that Active Statistics is meant to accompany Regression and Other Stories, I was wondering how you would recommend reading … Continue reading → Full Article Bayesian Statistics Literature Miscellaneous Statistics Teaching
at Postdoc opportunity! to work with me here at Columbia! on Bayesian workflow! for contamination models! With some wonderful collaborators!! By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Thu, 24 Oct 2024 13:16:46 +0000 Laboratory assays are central to much of biomedical research. My colleagues and I recently received a research grant to do better assays using Bayesian inference. Beyond the usual challenges of fitting nonlinear hierarchical models to real data that can sometimes … Continue reading → Full Article Bayesian Statistics Jobs Multilevel Modeling Public Health Stan Statistical Computing
at Flatiron Institute hiring: postdocs, joint faculty, and permanent research positions By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Thu, 24 Oct 2024 21:00:26 +0000 This is Bob. We’re hiring It’s that time of year again and we’re hiring at all levels at the Center for Computational Mathematics (CCM) at Flatiron Institute (the in-house research arm of Simons Foundation). As they are listed, job ads … Continue reading → Full Article Jobs Statistical Computing
at “Reduce likelihood of a tick bite by 73.6 times”? Forking paths on the Appalachian Trail. By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Sun, 27 Oct 2024 13:09:07 +0000 Shira writes: As an Appalachian Trail hiker, I always treat my clothes with permethrin. I’m a big fan of Sawyer products, but this claim caught my eye: Reduce likelihood of a tick bite by 73.6 times by treating shoes and … Continue reading → Full Article Miscellaneous Statistics Multilevel Modeling Public Health Zombies
at NYT catches up to Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Sun, 27 Oct 2024 23:34:20 +0000 A colleague pointed to this news article, “Do People in ‘Blue Zones’ Actually Live Longer?”, and wrote that I might find it blog-worthy. I replied that, yeah, the topic is blog-worthy enough that it’s already appeared on the blog, with … Continue reading → Full Article Public Health Zombies
at A question for Nate Cohn at the New York Times regarding a claim about adjusting polls using recalled past vote By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Tue, 29 Oct 2024 01:38:12 +0000 A colleague writes: Have you seen this article by Nate Cohn at the New York Times? A few things in it seemed weird. For one, he writes: The tendency for recall vote to overstate the winner of the last election … Continue reading → Full Article Political Science
at What makes an MCMC sampler GPU-friendly? By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Tue, 29 Oct 2024 16:20:03 +0000 (This post is by Charles) Art Owen (Stanford) read our paper on nesting Rhat to assess convergence in the many-short-chains regime of MCMC. He made a lot of great comments and asked some clarification questions. Notably: It wasn’t clear to me … Continue reading → Full Article Bayesian Statistics Stan Statistical Computing
at Leave-one-out cross validation (LOO) for an astronomy problem By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Wed, 30 Oct 2024 13:33:49 +0000 Harrison Siegel pointed us to this project with Maximiliano Isi and Will Farr on gravitational-wave analysis. The compare models using predictive evaluation, in particular leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO), as discussed here and here. Siegel writes: We discuss our implementation of the … Continue reading → Full Article Bayesian Statistics Decision Analysis Miscellaneous Statistics
at Stan Playground: Run Stan on the web, play with your program and data at will, and no need to download anything on your computer By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Thu, 31 Oct 2024 13:03:45 +0000 Just in time for Halloween, we have a scarily effective implementation of Stan on the web, full of a veritable haunted house of delicious treats. Brian Ward, Jeff Soules, and Jeremy Magland write: Stan Playground is a new open-source, browser-based … Continue reading → Full Article Bayesian Statistics Stan Statistical Computing Teaching
at “Trivia question for you. I kept temperature records for 100 days one year in Boston, starting August 15th (day “0”). What would you guess is the correlation between day# and temp? r=???” By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Fri, 01 Nov 2024 13:18:03 +0000 Shane Frederick writes: Trivia question for you. I kept temperature records for 100 days one year in Boston, starting August 15th (day “0”). What would you guess is the correlation between day# and temp? r=??? Shane sends me this kind … Continue reading → Full Article Miscellaneous Statistics Teaching
at Calibration is sometimes sufficient for trusting predictions. What does this tell us when human experts use model predictions? By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Fri, 01 Nov 2024 16:21:44 +0000 This is Jessica. I got through a long string of deadlines and invited talks and now I’m back to thinking about calibration and decision-making. In a previous post I was wondering about the relationship between calibration and Bayesian use of … Continue reading → Full Article Decision Analysis Miscellaneous Science Miscellaneous Statistics Statistical Computing
at A 10% swing in win probability corresponds (approximately) to a 0.4% swing in predicted vote By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Sat, 02 Nov 2024 20:46:56 +0000 There’s some confusion regarding jumps in election forecasts. New information is coming in every day, so it makes sense that forecasts change too. But they don’t change very much. Each new piece of information tells you only a little bit. … Continue reading → Full Article Bayesian Statistics Political Science
at Violent science teacher makes ridiculously unsupported research claims, gets treated by legislatures/courts/media as expert on the effects of homeschooling By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Sun, 03 Nov 2024 14:56:37 +0000 Paul Alper shares this horrifying news story by Laura Meckler: Brian Ray has spent the last three decades as one of the nation’s top evangelists for home schooling. As a researcher, he has published studies purporting to show that these … Continue reading → Full Article Causal Inference Sociology Teaching Zombies
at Should pollsters preregister their design, data collection, and analyses? By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Sun, 03 Nov 2024 22:40:12 +0000 There are actually two questions here: 1. Should pollsters share all the information on their design, data collection, and analyses? 2. If yes on question 1 above, should this information be made public ahead of time, before the survey is … Continue reading → Full Article Miscellaneous Science Political Science Sociology
at Probabilistic numerics and the folk theorem of statistical computing By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Mon, 04 Nov 2024 14:15:08 +0000 U.S. election day is tomorrow. So let’s talk about something else: 1. Encoding prior information using non-generative modeling I was talking with Hong Ge about the uses of non-generative models in probabilistic programming. An example I gave is the use … Continue reading → Full Article Bayesian Statistics Stan Statistical Computing
at What if the polls are right? (some scatterplots, and some comparisons to vote swings in past decades) By statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Published On :: Tue, 05 Nov 2024 02:58:23 +0000 There’s a lot of talk about how the polls can go wrong. Fair enough—I wrote an article a few years ago on failure and success in political polling and election forecasting, and a few years before that, Julia Azari and … Continue reading → Full Article Political Science