r Algeria: Tired of Waiting By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 06 Apr 2020 11:36:32 +0000 1 January 2008 , Number 10 At the beginning of December, media reports put the violence which had plagued Algeria since the 1990s at an all time low. Only six people had been killed in November and four of those were armed Islamist militants. Then on December 11, two car bombs exploded in the capital Algiers, killing some 67 people, including at least eleven United Nations officials in the largely destroyed offices of the UN’s High Commission for Refugees. What lies beneath this return to high-level, targeted attacks? Claire Spencer Head, Middle East Programme, Chatham House algeria 2008.jpg Algerian policemen and bomb experts in front of the destroyed building of the Supreme Court, Algiers. One explosion targeted the offices of the UN refugee agency in Algiers, while the other bomb was triggered near the Algerian Supreme Court building. Full Article
r Letter from David Hannay By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 06 Apr 2020 12:03:37 +0000 1 February 2008 , Number 5 David Hannay House of Lords, London v-p-lb-e-00262h.jpg Full Article
r Wheat, Farmer's Woes By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 06 Apr 2020 16:15:42 +0000 1 February 2008 , Number 3 Oliver Walston Farms at Thriplow Farm, Cambridgeshire Walston.jpg Full Article
r Iraq Tribunal: US Pulling Out By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 07 Apr 2020 10:21:57 +0000 1 May 2008 , Number 3 Rowdy sessions of the Iraq High Tribunal attracted sensational daily news coverage while Saddam Hussein was being tried. However, following his grim execution in December 2006, coverage all but evaporated. The foreign press and most western monitors packed their bags and left, and television reporting in Iraq dwindled. Now even the United States Department of Justice, which initially provided key financial and political support, is quietly withdrawing its advisers. So what is happening at the Tribunal and why are the Americans pulling out? Sonya Sceats Associate Fellow, International Law Programme @SonyaSceats SaddamPA.jpeg Full Article
r Lebanon: Futile Victory By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 07 Apr 2020 15:11:46 +0000 1 June 2008 , Number 3 For the third time in less than two years, Beirut has been turned into a battleground, with Hizbollah and the opposition taking over the city. The government and its allies did not engage militarily, managing to avoid civil war and becoming a regional battlefield. The Arab League is now trying to sort things out, highlighting the regional and international dimensions. Nadim Shehadi Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme @Confusezeus APLeb2.jpg Full Article
r G8 and Russian Foreign Policy: Overcoming Shortcomings By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 07 Apr 2020 15:23:02 +0000 1 June 2008 , Number 6 Dmitri Medvedev’s appearance at the G8 Summit in Hokkaido will be his first step on the wide international stage that Vladimir Putin occupied with such a swagger. Expectations of change will be high, but they are likely to be unrealistic at such an early stage in Medvedev’s presidency. Putin’s foreign policy legacy is a heavy one and he has made it clear that Medvedev will be no soft touch, but will his approach ultimately be more productive? John Lough Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme @JohnLough APMed.jpg Full Article
r Europe and the Mediterranean: Eyeing Other Shores By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 07 Apr 2020 15:48:41 +0000 1 July 2008 , Number 3 Ahead of the French holiday rush for relaxation in warm waters, President Nicolas Sarkozy has flung himself into the Mediterranean policy pool. Not content with existing arrangements, plans and processes for dealing with those on the other shore, the President has built his very own scheme, now adopted by the European Union. But the tides have not been altogether kind. Claire Spencer Head, Middle East Programme, Chatham House AP070710018709.jpg Full Article
r Energy for Asia: Chasing Pipe Dreams By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 08 Apr 2020 08:48:49 +0000 1 July 2008 , Number 9 Oil people call them pipe dreams: plans to transport energy across vast distances to places where it is needed most. That need is clear in Pakistan and India, but can the obstacles be overcome at this time of high prices, to turn the recurring dreams into reality? Elizabeth Mills Freelance analyst and consultant, Islamabad AP00060801194.jpg Indian women protesting against electricity price increases in Hyderabad Full Article
r Ukraine and NATO: Destination Unknown By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 15 Apr 2020 09:25:35 +0000 1 August 2008 , Number 10 As ever between NATO and Ukraine, the process advances, the destination is in doubt. Or so it seemed until the Bucharest summit declaration of April 3. The statement that Ukraine and Georgia ‘will become members of NATO’ was designed to remove doubt. Yet it was also designed to alleviate pressure on the organisation. Four months later, as the European Union prepares for its summit with Ukraine, pressure remains and doubt has returned. James Sherr Head, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House APUkraine.jpg Full Article
r Russia and Georgia: A Dangerous Game By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 15 Apr 2020 11:15:50 +0000 1 October 2008 , Number 3 Dilemmas and dangers abound for the west as it tries to come to terms with the ‘new’ Russia. There is a mood of defiance and injury, which can only be answered with firmness and prudence. James Sherr Head, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House EMP-6258997.jpg Full Article
r Moscow's Domestic Policy: Russian Roulette By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 15 Apr 2020 11:20:12 +0000 1 October 2008 , Number 4 Russia’s military action in Georgia was driven by Moscow’s domestic agenda. Foreign policy has become a tool of collective control back home. While the ‘ruling tandem’ has gained popularity, the new consensus does not provide for modernisation. Will the predatory state reform or collapse? Lilia Shevtsova Senior Associate, Carnegie Moscow Centre bear copy.jpg Full Article
r International Arms Trade Treaty: Gun Control By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 15 Apr 2020 11:39:18 +0000 1 October 2008 , Number 11 Nuclear, biological or chemical weapons and acts of terror may make the headlines, but it is conventional arms that take the lives in large numbers; maybe around a thousand a day. This month, a United Nations committee will try to find a way to limit the arms trade with a new treaty. For those facing the barrel of a gun, it cannot come a moment too soon. Paul Cornish Head, International Security Programme, Chatham House Field.jpg Full Article
r Perspectives on Nuclear Deterrence in the 21st Century By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Sun, 19 Apr 2020 19:32:28 +0000 20 April 2020 Nuclear deterrence theory, with its roots in the Cold War era, may not account for all eventualities in the 21st century. Researchers at Chatham House have worked with eight experts to produce this collection of essays examining four contested themes in contemporary policymaking on deterrence. Read online Download PDF Dr Beyza Unal Senior Research Fellow, International Security Programme @beyzaunal Google Scholar Yasmin Afina Research Assistant, International Security Programme @afinayasmin LinkedIn Dr Patricia Lewis Research Director, Conflict, Science & Transformation; Director, International Security Programme @PatriciaMary Dr John Borrie Associate Fellow, International Security Programme Google Scholar Dr Jamie Shea Associate Fellow, International Security Programme LinkedIn Peter Watkins Associate Fellow, International Security Programme LinkedIn Dr Maria Rost Rublee Associate Professor of International Relations, Monash University Cristina Varriale Research Fellow in Proliferation and Nuclear Policy, RUSI Dr Tanya Ogilvie-White Adjunct Senior Fellow, Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith University Dr Andrew Futter Associate Professor of International Politics, University of Leicester Christine Parthemore Chief Executive Officer, Council on Strategic Risks (CSR) 2020-04-20-NuclearDeterrence.jpeg Royal Navy Vanguard Class submarine HMS Vigilant returning to HMNB Clyde after extended deployment. The four Vanguard-class submarines form the UK's strategic nuclear deterrent force. Photo: Ministry of Defence. SummaryThis collection of essays explores, from the perspectives of eight experts, four areas of deterrence theory and policymaking: the underlying assumptions that shape deterrence practice; the enduring value of extended deterrence; the impact of emerging technologies; and the ‘blurring’ of the lines between conventional and nuclear weapons.Nuclear deterrence theory, with its roots in the Cold War era, may not account for all eventualities in security and defence in the 21st century, given the larger number of nuclear actors in a less binary geopolitical context. It is clear that a number of present factors challenge the overall credibility of ‘classical’ nuclear deterrence, meaning that in-depth analysis is now needed.Uncertainty as to the appetite to maintain the current nuclear weapons policy architecture looms large in discussions and concerns on global and regional security. The demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, doubts over the potential extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, heightened regional tensions in Northeast and South Asia, together with the current and likely future risks and challenges arising from global technological competition, making it all the more urgent to examine long-held assumptions in the real-world context.Extended deterrence practices differ from region to region, depending on the domestic and regional landscape. Increased focus on diplomatic capabilities to reduce risks and improve the long-term outlook at regional level, including by spearheading new regional arms-control initiatives, may be a viable way forward. Addressing the bigger picture – notably including, on the Korean peninsula, Pyongyang’s own threat perception – and the links between conventional and nuclear missile issues will need to remain prominent if long-term and concrete changes are to take hold.Most states have long held nuclear weapons to be ‘exceptional’: their use would represent a dramatic escalation of a conflict that must never be attained. Latterly, however, some officials and scholars have made the case that the impact of the use of a low-yield nuclear weapon would not be entirely distinct from that of a large-scale conventional attack. This blurring of lines between conventional and nuclear deterrence strips nuclear weapons of their exceptional nature, in a context in which states are faced with diverse, complex and concurrent threats from multiple potential adversaries that are able to synchronize non-military and military options, up to and including nuclear forces. The use of nuclear weapons risks becoming a ‘new normal’, potentially reducing the threshold for use – to cyberattacks, for example. This has direct implications for discussions around strategic stability. While emerging technologies may offer tremendous opportunities in the modernization of nuclear weapons, they also present major risks and destabilizing challenges. Artificial intelligence, automation, and other developments in the cyber sphere affect dynamics on both the demand and supply sides of the nuclear deterrence equation. States and alliance such as NATO must adapt their deterrence thinking in light of these technological developments, and define their primary purpose and priorities in this shifting security context. Resilience planning, adaptation to the evolving security environment, threat anticipation, and consistent crisis management and incident response – as well as thinking about the mitigation measures necessary to prevent conflict escalation should deterrence fail – will all be critical in upholding nuclear deterrence as both policy and practice. Department/project International Security Programme, Deterrence Perspectives in the 21st Century Full Article
r Egypt and the Gulf: Allies and Rivals By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Sun, 19 Apr 2020 20:38:18 +0000 20 April 2020 There is and will continue to be an edge of rivalry in Egypt’s relations with the dominant Gulf Arab powers. This paper will focus primarily on the Egypt–Gulf relationship during the Sisi era. Read online Download PDF David Butter Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme @DavidCButter 2020-04-20-Egypt-Gulf.jpg Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Mohammed bin Zayed is welcomed by Egypt’s President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi in Cairo on 19 June 2017. Photo: Getty Images. Summary Egypt and the Gulf Arab region have long been important poles of political, military economic and cultural power and influence in the Middle East. Under the presidency of Gamal Abdel-Nasser, Egypt was the dominant force in the region, but the balance of power shifted towards the Gulf in the 1970s, as Egypt’s economy faltered and the Gulf Arab states reaped the benefits of resurgent oil prices in the wake of the 1973 OPEC embargo. The popular uprising against President Hosni Mubarak’s regime in 2011 elicited divergent reactions in the Gulf. The leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were concerned about the risks of a movement for revolutionary change spreading to their own region, while Qatar saw an opportunity to strengthen its regional role through supporting the Muslim Brotherhood.The forcible removal of Egypt’s elected president, Mohammed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood, in July 2013 by the army commander, Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi, ushered in a new era in Egypt–Gulf relations. The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait quickly mobilized financial support for the new administration. Abu Dhabi’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Zayed, known for his intense opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood, signalled his strong support for the new regime by visiting Cairo only weeks after hundreds of Morsi’s supporters were killed.Between July 2013 and August 2016, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait provided about $30 billion in aid to the Sisi regime through placing deposits with the Central Bank of Egypt and supplying petroleum products as grants. The UAE sought to link its aid to a programme of economic reforms, but the Egyptian government finally decided in mid-2016 to negotiate a loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Since the signing of the $12 billion loan with the IMF in November 2016, Egypt has no longer been reliant on Gulf Arab financial support, although some of the deposits placed previously have been rolled over on reaching maturity.During the Sisi era, Egypt has benefited from its economic links to the Gulf over a wide spectrum of activities. The UAE and Saudi Arabia in particular are increasingly important export markets for Egyptian companies, as well as major sources of foreign direct investment. The financial aid provided by Sisi’s Gulf allies in 2013–16 has also helped to underpin the surge in Egypt’s arms procurement. Another critical element in the economic relationship is the presence of millions of expatriate Egyptian workers in the Gulf, who are responsible for a large share of the annual inflow of about $25 billion in remittances.Egypt’s most important political relationships in the Gulf have been with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Ties with Saudi Arabia were affected by the death of King Abdullah at the start of 2015 and by the subsequent emergence of Mohammed bin Salman as the most influential figure in the kingdom. During a visit by King Abdullah’s successor, King Salman, to Cairo in April 2016, Egypt announced a decision to cede sovereignty over two Red Sea islands, Tiran and Sanafir, to Saudi Arabia. Relations soured after this decision was challenged in the Egyptian courts, but the issue was resolved in favour of the deal. Egypt played no active role in the Saudi- and UAE-led intervention in Yemen, but joined its two principal Gulf allies and Bahrain in imposing sanctions on Qatar in mid-2017. Relations between Sisi and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed have remained close throughout the past seven years. The UAE and Egypt have been among the most important external supporters of the Libyan National Army, commanded by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, although they have not created an overt alliance in this arena. Egypt has adopted a more prominent diplomatic profile in relation to Libya, while the UAE has been more deeply engaged militarily, to judge from assessments by the panel of experts tasked to monitor adherence to the UN embargo on the supply of weapons to Libya. The relationship between the Egyptian and Emirati leaders is underpinned by a strong shared ideological antipathy to the Muslim Brotherhood.Following the completion of the IMF programme in 2019, the Egyptian economy is in a much stronger position than it was in the early period of Sisi’s rule, even though this has exacted a harsh toll on the 60 per cent of the population classified by the World Bank as poor or vulnerable. There is no pressing need for direct financial support from the Gulf, but Egypt still depends on economic linkages through trade, investment, tourism and remittances. In this respect, the balance of power has tilted marginally back towards Egypt. However, Egypt is still beset by deep internal political contradictions, as reflected in the regime’s heavy reliance on coercion and repression, and the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks – of which the coronavirus pandemic is a prime example. Department/project Middle East and North Africa Programme Full Article
r Economic Crisis and the Delayed Arrival of a New President: Transition Trauma By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 20 Apr 2020 13:16:14 +0000 1 November 2008 , Number 1 The new American president will not be inaugurated until January 20. He will certainly face the most difficult economic conditions since Franklin Roosevelt entered the White House in March 1933. The politics of presidential transition – in this year, as seventy-six years ago – seem likely only to exacerbate the global crisis. John Dumbrell Professor of Government, Durham University USCharlesDharapak_AP_PAPhotos.jpg Full Article
r Russia and the Economic Crisis: No Safe Haven By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 20 Apr 2020 13:26:47 +0000 1 November 2008 , Number 4 Russia is caught in the global crisis and cannot escape its impact. The crucial question is how the Dmitri Medvedev-Vladimir Putin leadership will respond. Putin has presided over a steadily strengthening economy; he now appears ill-equipped to handle crisis and contraction. The signs are not encouraging. Trust and confidence, two essential ingredients vital to resolving any financial crisis, are in short supply. The public could pay a heavy price for the hubris and schadenfreude of their leaders, still ‘dizzy with success’ from years of economic revival and what they perceive as a successful reaffirmation of the country’s great power status. Julian Cooper, Professor, Centre for Russian and East European Studies, University of Birmingham TASS_RUSSIA.jpg Full Article
r Iran: Looking for a Thaw By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 20 Apr 2020 13:37:14 +0000 1 November 2008 , Number 7 An air of lassitude pervades the Iranian nuclear talks. Will things look different after the American election? What should be done to raise the chances of a good outcome? Richard Dalton Former British Ambassador to Iran. Associate Fellow, Middle East Programme, Chatham House Iran.jpg Full Article
r United States Presidency and Europe: Over to You, Europe By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 20 Apr 2020 13:53:06 +0000 1 November 2008 , Number 1 The race is on to ensure that relations between the United States and its European allies are set on the right track from the outset of Barack Obama’s presidency. Although they may not like it, the main responsibility for ensuring that the transatlantic relationship does not stumble into a series of disappointed expectations in its first critical year lies more in European capitals than in Washington. Robin Niblett Director and Chief Executive, Chatham House @RobinNiblett 3009102377_f3781c9973_o.jpg Full Article
r Climate Change: Avoiding Climate Crunch By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 20 Apr 2020 14:22:12 +0000 1 November 2008 , Number 6 A new climate is likely at the United Nations climate change conference in Poland early this month and not just because of the election of Barack Obama as President of the United States. The international financial crisis has highlighted the cost of poor policies and the scale of banking bailouts has made dealing with climate change seem less formidable. Besides, such schemes could create new jobs and give an edge to the competitive economies of tomorrow. Bernice Lee OBE Research Director; Executive Director, Hoffmann Centre for Sustainable Resource Economy @BerniceWLee climateAkuppaJohnWigham_1.jpg Full Article
r Regional Diplomacy in the Middle East: Iran is on a Roll By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 21 Apr 2020 14:55:26 +0000 1 January 2007 , Number 2 For all the cynicism it has evoked, the United States’ Iraq Study Group report might still lead to a regional diplomatic process, which could ease Iran and the US into negotiations. A grand bargain is very unlikely, but with Washington at the table, there might be enough advantage for both sides in a gradual process to halt the current slide towards a deeper confrontation. Richard Dalton was the British Ambssador to Iran until last March Iran.jpg Full Article
r Russian Policy on Iran: Trump and Trap By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 21 Apr 2020 15:32:18 +0000 1 February 2007 , Number 1 Russia is playing a risky game in Iran, continuing to build a nuclear power plant while supporting United Nations sanctions on Tehran for its nuclear policy. Moscow may be hoping for a deal with the west, but if restraint fails and Iran goes nuclear, the missiles would be too close for comfort. Equally a pre-emptive American or Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites might unleash serious consequences for Russia too. Yury Fedorov Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House GettyImages-52983073.jpg An Iranian woman passes by mural paintings of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (L) and the late founder of Islamic Republic Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini (R) Full Article
r Nuclear Weapons: Trident is the Answer, Now What was the Question? By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 21 Apr 2020 15:43:46 +0000 1 February 2007 , Number 3 Next month, parliament will vote on whether to replace Britain’s Trident nuclear missile submarines with a new and similar system. There is little doubt the proposal will be approved with support from the Conservative opposition. But the facts used to back the government’s favourite option raise as many questions as answers. The future of Britain’s defence is in doubt. Andrew Norman Senior Lecturer, Defence Studies, King's College London GettyImages-51273218.jpg Trident Submarine USS Georgia Full Article
r Europe: Fifty Years On - Essay Competition By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 22 Apr 2020 12:36:55 +0000 1 January 2007 , An ageing population in Europe makes the opinion of young people about their continent’s future even more important. Leading international figures, including the President of the United Nations General Assembly, have been expressing concern over the limited role of young people in shaping policy. With this in mind, The World Today and the National Association for Gifted and Talented Youth have given students the opportunity to share their vision through a competition on Europe: The Next Fifty Years. The three finalists have been invited to an International Economics Programme workshop at Chatham House next month. EU Umbrella.jpg Full Article
r Calculations for an Air Attack on Iran: Bombs Away? By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 27 Apr 2020 12:36:20 +0000 1 March 2007 , Number 1 The Iranian nuclear site at Natanz is already one of the most protected places on earth, and the apparently never-ending diplomatic minuet over Iran’s nuclear activities may be no more than Tehran stringing out negotiations until its nuclear protection programme is complete. Andrew Brookes Former Royal Air Force bomber pilot GettyImages-1179034669.jpg An Iranian man carries a placard in support of nuclear technology during a rally to mark the 28th anniversary of the Islamic revolution Full Article
r Nigerian Elections: Big Men and Ballot Boxes By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 27 Apr 2020 12:58:13 +0000 1 March 2007 , Number 6 The minister paused, leaned forward and fiddled with his cufflinks, ‘It wasn’t about whether the election was rigged or not,’ he said. ‘The truth is, everybody rigged it. We just rigged it better than them.’ Does the next Nigerian presidential election in April promise anything different? Sola Tayo Journalist, HARDtalk, BBC News GettyImages-73130322.jpg Supporters of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party wave banners and posters Full Article
r Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Terrorism: Tomorrow's Threat By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 27 Apr 2020 13:23:42 +0000 1 March 2007 , Number 11 In early November, the retiring head of Britain’s Security Service MI5, Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, warned that the danger of a terror attack was ‘serious’ and ‘growing’, with as many as thirty plots underway. Traditional terrorism of the sort practised by the Irish Republican Army has given way to the possibility, if not the expectation, that groups such as Al Qaeda might make use of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons and materials in an attack in Britain. So what are the dangers? GettyImages-200457787-001 copy.jpg Syrian Special Forces in gas masks, Saudi Arabia 1990 Full Article
r Turkey: Emerging Identity By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 27 Apr 2020 14:29:07 +0000 1 April 2007 , Number 10 Turkey is about to face both presidential and parliamentary elections. Many argue that the usual faultlines – the role of the military, secularism, Islam, nationalism and the Kurdish question – change incrementally at best. But mounting evidence is challenging this basic assumption. Fadi Hakura Consulting Fellow, Europe Programme LinkedIn GettyImages-93326288.jpg Seagulls fly near Suleymaniye mosque in Istanbul Turkey Full Article
r Book Review: Corruption: Led into Temptation By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 27 Apr 2020 15:07:15 +0000 1 May 2007 , Number 8 Corruption and Misuse of Public Office,Colin Nicholls Qc, Tim Daniel, Martin Polaine and John Hatchard, Oxford University Press. David Bentley Associate Fellow, International Law, Chatham House Book.jpg Full Article
r Breaking the Cycle of Violence: Transitional Justice for the Victims of ISIS in Syria By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 27 Apr 2020 15:50:01 +0000 28 April 2020 This paper aims to assist the region’s local authorities, and their key foreign backers, in understanding how transitional justice can provide alternative avenues for holding local ISIS members to account while contributing to the healing of communities. Read online Download PDF Haid Haid Senior Consulting Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme @HaidHaid22 2020-04-28-Syria-prison.jpg A fighter with the Syrian Democratic Forces monitors prisoners accused of being affiliated with ISIS, at a prison in the northeastern Syrian city of Hassakeh on 25 October 2019. Photo: Getty Images. SummaryFollowing the territorial defeat of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in northeastern Syria, the Kurdish-led autonomous administration in the region is now grappling with the task of quickly dealing with thousands of the group’s detained members while bringing justice to their victims. To that end, local authorities are focusing on the use of counterterrorism laws and courts to charge captured ISIS members and determine their guilt accordingly.The piecemeal approach to justice is deeply flawed, and raises particular concerns about due process. No precise instruments exist to determine the personal responsibility of ISIS individuals for specific crimes, or for their role in war crimes committed by the group. In any event, the scale of the crimes and the number of victims – as well as severe shortages of resources and workers – make dispensation of justice extremely difficult through the traditional legal system.Not all detained ISIS members receive prison sentences. Individuals who did not hold senior roles in the group’s apparatus and are not accused of ‘major’ crimes (in practice, largely defined as fighting for ISIS and murder) are being released under limited reconciliation deals with tribal leaders. But the involvement of local community leaders in those efforts is not enough to ensure positive results. Many victims are upset at seeing ISIS members walk free without even admitting their guilt publicly or apologizing for the pain they caused.To overcome the limitations of the current, counterterrorism-focused framework, a ‘transitional justice’ approach could provide judicial and non-judicial instruments to establish accountability for ISIS crimes and reduce community resistance to the reintegration of group members. A combination of non-judicial mechanisms such as truth commissions, missing persons’ committees, and reparations and victim-healing programmes could play a vital role in providing ISIS victims with a sense of justice while contributing to peacebuilding and stability.Ignoring the urgency of developing a long-term plan to serve justice and contribute to community healing will almost certainly allow ISIS to continue to prevent the recovery and development of northeastern Syria. This, in turn, risks undermining the stability of the country and the region at large. Department/project Middle East and North Africa Programme Full Article
r Iran and China: Energising Links By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 28 Apr 2020 14:23:50 +0000 1 July 2007 , Number 2 Iran has energy that China needs and Beijing provides a counter balance to western pressures on Tehran. The benefits are clear, but so are the risks for a rising power in the labyrinthine politics of the Middle East. Marc Lanteigne Lecturer, School of International Relations, University of St. Andrews GettyImages-71216019.jpg Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad meets with Chinese President Hu Jintao Full Article
r Human Rights: Right for You, Right for Us? By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 04 May 2020 08:54:20 +0000 1 October 2007 , Number 5 Internationally, Britain has traded for decades on its human rights laurels. Its key role in building the successful European human rights system has long been celebrated, and human rights promotion remains a cornerstone of foreign and development policy. Domestically, the contrast could not be stronger. Newspapers are actively campaigning to ‘axe’ the Human Rights Act, and mainstream political leaders are joining in, hoping for electoral gains. Does this mean the British people have turned their backs on human rights? Sonya Sceats Associate Fellow, International Law Programme @SonyaSceats GettyImages-71296579.jpg The leader of Britain's Conservative Party, David Cameron Full Article
r Towards a Low-Carbon Future: China and the European Union By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 04 May 2020 09:08:16 +0000 1 October 2007 , Number 7 Chinese goods seem to flood western markets: computers, light bulbs, sweaters, T-shirts and bras. The instinct is to try to protect home producers. A better plan would be to work with Beijing on producing products for the next industrial revolution – the creation of a low-carbon economy. But that would take real vision and political courage. Bernice Lee OBE Research Director; Executive Director, Hoffmann Centre for Sustainable Resource Economy @BerniceWLee Nick Mabey Founding director and Chief Executive, E3G GettyImages-102943828.jpg Full Article
r Burma: On the Brink of Implosion By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 04 May 2020 09:58:24 +0000 1 November 2007 , Number 4 The world’s most populous democracy and its new economic engine are both busy modifying positions on Burma, their much smaller but troublesome neighbour. India and China have growing economic interests there, yet seem to have come to very different conclusions about how to protect them. Dr Gareth Price Senior Research Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme @DrGarethPrice Google Scholar Professor Kerry Brown Associate Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme @Bkerrychina LinkedIn Google Scholar BurmaMonks_racoles.jpg Full Article
r Renewable Energy: Generating Money By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 04 May 2020 10:08:14 +0000 1 November 2007 , Number 7 City types are waking up to wind, waves and the sun and their potential to make energy – and money. This is just as new energy policies for Europe emerge with twenty percent targets for renewable energy and greenhouse gas cuts. Add to the mix climate change negotiations which will be back in Bali in December. Kirsty Hamilton Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme LinkedIn GettyImages-977104176.jpg Solar panels lined up Full Article
r It's a man's world: carnal spectatorship and dissonant masculinities in Islamic State videos By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 08:41:04 +0000 7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3 Manni Crone Read Online Islamic State videos have often been associated with savage violence and beheadings. An in-depth scrutiny however reveals another striking feature: that female bodies are absent, blurred or mute. Examining a few Islamic State videos in depth, the article suggests that the invisibility of women in tandem with the ostentatious visibility of male bodies enable gendered and embodied spectators to indulge in homoerotic as well as heterosexual imaginaries. In contrast to studies on visual security and online radicalization which assert that images affect an audience, this article focuses on the interaction between video and audience and argues that spectators are not only rational and emotional but embodied and gendered as well. Islamic State videos do not only attract western foreign fighters through religious–ideological rhetoric or emotional impact but also through gendered forms of pleasure and desire that enable carnal imagination and identification. The article probes the analytical purchase of carnal aesthetics and spectatorship. Full Article
r Politics, policy-making and the presence of images of suffering children By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 08:45:52 +0000 7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3 Helen Berents Read Online In 2017 Trump expressed pity for the ‘beautiful babies’ killed in a gas attack on Khan Shaykhun in Syria before launching airstrikes against President Assad's regime. Images of suffering children in world politics are often used as a synecdoche for a broader conflict or disaster. Injured, suffering, or dead; the ways in which images of children circulate in global public discourse must be critically examined to uncover the assumptions that operate in these environments. This article explores reactions to images of children by representatives and leaders of states to trace the interconnected affective and political dimensions of these images. In contrast to attending to the expected empathetic responses prompted by images of children, this article particularly focuses on when such images prompt bellicose foreign policy decision-making. In doing this, the article forwards a way of thinking about images as contentious affective objects in international relations. The ways in which images of children's bodies and suffering are strategically deployed by politicians deserves closer scrutiny to uncover the visual politics of childhood inherent in these moments of international politics and policy-making. Full Article
r Social media and the visibility of horrific violence By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 08:53:25 +0000 7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3 Constance Duncombe Read Online Images are central to social media communication. Billions of images are shared across different social media platforms every day: photos, cartoons, GIFs and short video clips are exchanged by users, facilitating or framing discourse on participatory sites such as Twitter, Facebook and Instagram. Many of these images depict events of extreme violence, which circulate uninhibited by the conventional constraints associated with traditional news media censorship. A question arises here as to how such images mobilize public and policy-making responses to atrocities. This article examines the political dynamics of violent social media images. I argue that the particular qualities of social media can play an important role in how the digital visibility of horrific violence influences policy-making as a response to such atrocities. There is an important connection between the properties of social media platforms that allow user images to reach a global audience in real time and the emotional responses that this level of circulation generates. In turn, the pressure created by events made globally visible through the circulation of violent images and the audience responses to those images puts governments in a position where they are forced to act, which has significant implications for policy-making. Full Article
r Horror, apocalypse and world politics (free) By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 09:04:16 +0000 7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3 Read online Tim Aistrope and Stefanie Fishel World politics generates a long list of anxiety-inspiring scenarios that threaten to unravel everyday life with sudden and violent destruction. From total war and the concentration camps, through nuclear firestorms, global pandemics and climate disaster, the diabolical violence of the recent past and conceivable future is the stuff of nightmares. Yet International Relations scholars and practitioners are often criticized for being disconnected from the human realities of international calamity. The challenge for both is to engage world politics in a way that foregrounds the human consequences of extreme violence and depravation. In this article, we explore these difficult experiences through popular culture representations of the apocalypse, a subject of intense interest for researchers in a discipline where global destruction is a distinct possibility. However, we take a different route by engaging the apocalypse through the horror genre, the one place where human suffering is explicitly accentuated. We argue that the horror genre is at once an access point for ethical engagement with the human consequences of extreme violence and a complex terrain where dark imaginings can be politically loaded, culturally specific and ethically ambiguous. Full Article
r Soundscapes of war: the audio-visual performance of war by Shi'a militias in Iraq and Syria By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 09:16:54 +0000 7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3 Helle Malmvig Read online This article sets out to bring sound and music to the field of visual studies in International Relations. It argues that IR largely has approached the visual field as if it was without sound; neglecting how audial landscapes frame and direct our interpretation of moving imagery. Sound and music contribute to making imagery intelligible to us, we ‘hear the pictures’ often without noticing. The audial can for instance articulate a visual absence, or blast visual signs, bring out certain emotional stages or subjects’ inner life. Audial frames steer us in distinct directions, they can mute the cries of the wounded in war, or amplify the sounds of joy of soldiers shooting in the air. To bring the audial and the visual analytically and empirically together, the article therefore proposes four key analytical themes: 1) the audial–visual frame, 2) point of view/point of audition, 3) modes of audio-visual synchronization and 4) aesthetics moods. These are applied to a study of ‘war music videos’ in Iraq and Syria made and circulated by Shi'a militias currently fighting there. Such war music videos, it is suggested, are not just artefacts of popular culture, but have become integral parts of how warfare is practiced today, and one that is shared by soldiers in the US and Europe. War music videos are performing war, just as they shape how war is known by spectators and participants alike. Full Article
r How images frame China's role in African development By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 09:21:23 +0000 7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3 George Karavas Read online Political leaders, policy-makers and academics routinely refer to development as an objective process of social change through the use of technical, value-free terms. Images of poverty and inequality are regularly presented as evidence of a world that exists ‘out there’ where development unfolds. This way of seeing reflects the value of scientific forms of knowledge but also sits in tension with the normative foundations of development that take European modernization and industrialization as the benchmark for comparison. The role images play in this process is often overlooked. This article argues that a dominant mode of visuality based on a Cartesian separation between subject and object, underpinning the ascendance of European hegemony and colonialism, aligns with the core premises of orthodox development discourse. An example of how visual representations of development matter is presented through images of Africa–China relations in western media sources. Using widely circulated images depicting China's impact on African development in western news media sources as an example of why visual politics matters for policy-making, the article examines how images play a role in legitimizing development planning by rendering associated forms of epistemological and structural violence ‘invisible to the viewer’. Full Article
r Accountability, denial and the future-proofing of British torture By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 09:24:20 +0000 7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3 Read online Ruth Blakeley and Sam Raphael When powerful liberal democratic states are found to be complicit in extreme violations of human rights, how do they respond and why do they respond as they do? Drawing on the example of the United Kingdom's complicity in torture since 9/11, this article demonstrates how reluctant the UK has been to permit a full reckoning with its torturous past. We demonstrate that successive UK governments engaged in various forms of denial, obfuscation and attempts to obstruct investigation and avoid accountability. The net effect of their responses has been to deny the victims redress, through adequate judicial processes, and to deny the public adequate state accountability. These responses are not simply aimed at shielding from prosecution the perpetrators and those who have oversight of them, nor preventing political embarrassment. The various forms of denial and obstruction are also designed to ensure that collusion can continue uninterrupted. A core concern of intelligence officials and ministers has been to prevent any process that would lead to a comprehensive prohibition on involvement in operations where torture and cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment are a real possibility. The door remains wide open, and deliberately so, for British involvement in torture. Full Article
r Rethinking youth bulge theory in policy and scholarship: incorporating critical gender analysis By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 09:26:03 +0000 7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3 Lesley Pruitt Read online For decades ‘youth bulge’ theory has dominated understandings of youth in mainstream International Relations. Youth bulge theory has also become part of some public media analyses, mainstream political rhetoric, and even officially enshrined in the foreign policy of some states. Through the ‘youth bulge’ lens, youth—especially males—have been presented as current or future perpetrators of violence. However, this article argues that the youth bulge thesis postulated in mainstream IR is based on flawed theoretical assumptions. In particular, supporters of youth bulge theory fail to engage with existing research by feminist IR scholars and thus take on a biological essentialist approach. This has led to theoretical and practical misunderstandings of the roles youth play in relation to conflict, peace and security. These partial and biased understandings have also resulted in less effective policy-making. In critically reflecting on the ‘youth bulge’ thesis, this article argues that applying gender analysis is crucial to understanding the involvement of young people in general—and young men in particular—in conflict. Doing so will contribute to advancing more accurate analysis in scholarship and policy-making. Full Article
r The multilevel identity politics of the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 09:28:22 +0000 7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3 Galia Press-Barnathan and Naama Lutz Read online This article uses the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest (ESC) that took place in Tel Aviv to explore how cultural mega-events serve both as political arenas and as tools for identity construction, negotiation and contestation. These processes of identity politics are all conducted across national–subnational–international–transnational levels. The hosting of mega-events fleshes out these multiple processes in a very strong manner. We first discuss the politics of hosting mega-events in general. We then examine the identity politics associated more specifically with the Eurovision Song Contest, before examining in depth the complex forms of identity politics emerging around the competition following the 2018 Israeli victory. We suggest that it is important to study together the multiple processes—domestic, international and transnational—of identity politics that take place around the competition, as they interact with each other. Consequently, we follow the various stakeholders involved at these different levels and their interactions. We examine the internal identity negotiation process in Israel surrounding the event, the critical actors debating how to use the stage to challenge the liberal, western, ‘normal’ identity Israel hoped to project in the contest and how other stakeholders (participating states, national broadcasting agencies, participating artists) reacted to them, and finally we examine the behaviour of the institution in charge, the European Broadcasting Union, and national governments. We contribute to the study of mega-events as fields of contestation, to the understanding of the complex, multilevel nature of national identity construction, negotiation and contestation in the current era, and more broadly to the role that popular culture plays in this context. Full Article
r Power and diplomacy in the post-liberal cyberspace By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 09:31:03 +0000 7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3 André Barrinha and Thomas Renard Read online It is becoming widely accepted that we have transitioned, or are now transitioning, from an international liberal order to a different reality. Whether that reality is different solely in terms of power dynamics, or also in terms of values and institutions, is up for discussion. The growing body of literature on ‘post-liberalism’ is used as an entry-point for this article, which aims to explore how the post-liberal transition applies to cyberspace. We explore how power dynamics are evolving in cyberspace, as well as how established norms, values and institutions are contested. The article then looks at the emergence of cyber diplomacy as a consequence and response to the post-liberal transition. As it will be argued, if cyberspace was a creation of the liberal order, cyber-diplomacy is a post-liberal world practice. What role it plays in shaping a new order or building bridges between different political visions, and what it means for the future of cyberspace, will constitute key points of discussion. Full Article
r Let's talk about the interregnum: Gramsci and the crisis of the liberal world order By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 09:34:15 +0000 7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3 Read online Milan Babic The liberal international order (LIO) is in crisis. Numerous publications, debates and events have time and again made it clear that we are in the midst of a grand transformation of world order. While most contributions focus on either what is slowly dying (the LIO) or what might come next (China, multipolarity, chaos?), there is less analytical engagement with what lies in between those two phases of world order. Under the assumption that this period could last years or even decades, a set of analytical tools to understand this interregnum is urgently needed. This article proposes an analytical framework that builds on Gramscian concepts of crisis that will help us understand the current crisis of the LIO in a more systematic way. It addresses a gap in the literature on changing world order by elaborating three Gramsci-inspired crisis characteristics—processuality, organicity and morbidity—that sketch the current crisis landscape in a systematic way. Building on this framework, the article suggests different empirical entry points to the study of the crisis of the LIO and calls for a research agenda that takes this crisis seriously as a distinct period of changing world orders. Full Article
r China and Russia in R2P debates at the UN Security Council By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 09:36:16 +0000 7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3 Zheng Chen and Hang Yin Read online While China and Russia's general policies towards the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) are similar, the two reveal nuanced differences in addressing specific emergencies. Both express support for the first two pillars of R2P while resisting coercive intervention under its aegis, as they share anxieties of domestic political security and concerns about their international image. Nonetheless, addressing cases like the Syrian crisis, Russian statements are more assertive and even aggressive while Chinese ones are usually vague and reactive. This article highlights the two states’ different tones through computer-assisted text analyses. It argues that diplomatic styles reflect Russian and Chinese perceptions of their own place in the evolving international order. Experiences in past decades create divergent reference points and status prospects for them, which leads to their different strategies in signalling Great Power status. As Beijing is optimistic about its status-rising prospects, it exercises more self-restraint in order to avoid external containments and is reluctant to act as an independent ‘spoiler’. Meanwhile, Moscow interprets its Great Power status more from a frame of ‘loss’ and therefore is inclined to adopt a sterner approach to signal its status. Although their policies complement each other on many occasions, there is nothing akin to a Sino–Russian ‘bloc’. Full Article
r Violence, visuality and world politics By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 09:47:01 +0000 7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3 In the May 2020 issue of International Affairs, we explore the many uses of images in the conduct of global politics. Helen Berents and Constance Duncombe Read Online This special section brings together diverse spaces and modes of visuality through specific, sustained attention to the various types of violence depicted. In doing so, these articles draw out a concern for the visual constitution of violence in global politics, and its emotional and political consequences. Individually and collectively, the contributions highlight the ways in which policy-makers and researchers are daily confronted by violent images that influence how complex political problems are seen and consequently understood. Paying attention to the power of the visuality of violence is necessary to understand how certain kinds of policy responses to direct and indirect violence unfold. Full Article
r The Changing Nature of Russia’s Military Strategy and Its Tactical Application By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 14 Oct 2019 10:15:01 +0000 Invitation Only Research Event 12 November 2019 - 4:00pm to 5:30pm Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE Event participants Oscar Jonsson, Director, Stockholm Free World Forum (Frivärld)Mathieu Boulègue, Research Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham HouseChair: Alice Billon-Galland, Research Associate, Europe Programme, Chatham House Russia’s military strategy is increasingly blurring the boundaries between war and peace. As the nature of warfare changes, the Kremlin is adapting its strategies to pursue conflict, especially through non-military means - below the threshold of armed violence. Russian military tactics are often mistaken for strategy in the West. Oscar Jonson, author of The Russian Understanding of War, will talk through this debate and explore how the Russian leadership now understands military strategy in the context of modern warfare. Mathieu Boulègue will address the more operational aspects of contemporary warfare for Russia, notably grey zone operations. Department/project Russia and Eurasia Programme Anna Morgan Administrator, Ukraine Forum +44 (0)20 7389 3274 Email Full Article
r Corporate Raiding in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 15 Oct 2019 09:45:02 +0000 Invitation Only Research Event 5 November 2019 - 9:00am to 1:00pm Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE Agenda - Corporate Raiding in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstanpdf | 105.48 KB Event participants John Patton, Argentem CreekRachel Cook, Peters & PetersTom Mayne, University of ExeterOlga Bischof, Brown Rudnick LLPIsobel Koshiw, Global WitnessAnton Moiseienko, RUSI The widespread practice of illicit acquisition of a business or part of a business in the former Soviet states, known as ‘reiderstvo’ or asset-grabbing, is a major risk that disincentivises investment in the region.It is distinct from the way corporate raiding occurs in the West and enabled by factors such as corruption and weak protection of property rights.This roundtable will assess the practice of corporate raiding in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan: its evolution over time, knock-on effects and potential solutions. The speakers will also address the implications for the UK legal system and possible policy responses. Event attributes Chatham House Rule Department/project Russia and Eurasia Programme Anna Morgan Administrator, Ukraine Forum +44 (0)20 7389 3274 Email Full Article
r Zelenskyy Finds That There Are No Easy Solutions in Donbas By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 23 Oct 2019 14:46:36 +0000 23 October 2019 Duncan Allan Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme Leo Litra Senior Research Fellow, New Europe Center The president has attempted to use the so-called Steinmeier Formula to find a compromise on holding elections in the east of Ukraine. But he has run into a stark reality: Moscow and Kyiv’s interests remain irreconcilable. 2019-10-23-Ukraine.jpg A banner reading 'No capitulation!' is unfurled above the entrance to the city hall in Kyiv as part of protests against implementation of the so-called Steinmeier Formula. Photo: Getty Images. In 2016, the then-German foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, suggested a way around the impasse in east Ukraine.He proposed that elections in the areas held by Russian-backed insurgents – the ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ (DNR) and the ‘Luhansk People’s Republic’ (LNR) – could be held under Ukrainian legislation, with Kyiv adopting a temporary law on ‘special status’, the main disagreement between Russia and Ukraine in the Minsk Agreements. This law would become permanent once the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) had declared that elections correspond with OSCE standards.The reaction in Ukraine was strongly negative. The so-called Steinmeier Formula contradicted Kyiv’s position that elections in the occupied Donbas should only go ahead in a secure environment – requiring the prior withdrawal of Russian forces and the return of the eastern border to Ukraine’s control. It also did not address the differing views of ‘special status’; Russia demands a much greater devolution of constitutional powers to the DNR and LNR regimes than Ukraine will grant.But on 1 October, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the new Ukrainian president, announced that he was signing up to the Steinmeier Formula. He also announced a conditional withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from two frontline areas in the east.Quick reversalDuring the 2019 presidential election campaign, Zelenskyy repeatedly promised that, if elected, he would re-energize efforts to end the war. This appealed to many Ukrainians, who understandably want the conflict over, although Zelenskyy’s eventual electoral victory was largely won on domestic issues.But his initiative quickly ran into two problems.First, following a major prisoner swap in September, Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to judge that Zelenskyy was in a hurry to deliver his election promises and was acting without consulting France and Germany. Russia had earlier demanded that Ukraine formally agree to elections in the Donbas as the precondition for a summit of the ‘Normandy’ powers (the diplomatic format comprising leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France, which has not met since 2016).Moreover, the US, which is not part of the ‘Normandy’ group, has seemed disengaged because of domestic controversies. Concluding that Zelenskyy was vulnerable, the Kremlin welcomed his announcement about the Steinmeier Formula but declined to assent to a summit, hoping to extract further concessions.Second, Zelenskyy’s action triggered protests in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. Critics feared that he intended to make unilateral concessions over ‘special status’. Though he tried to assure Ukrainians that ‘there won't be any elections there if the [Russian] troops are still there’, concerns were fuelled by what many saw as his lack of openness about what the Steinmeier Formula really meant. Ukrainian public opinion wants an end to the war, but apparently not at any price.Zelenskyy duly rowed back. During a marathon 14-hour press conference on 10 October, he emphasized that he would not surrender Ukraine’s vital interests. He also acknowledged that he had been insufficiently open with the Ukrainian public. For the time being at least, he seems to have been given pause.A situation resistant to compromiseInstead, Zelenskyy may now attempt to ‘freeze’ the conflict by ending active operations. This is not Ukraine’s favoured outcome but could be the most realistic one in current conditions. Russia still calculates that time is on its side. It believes that Western support for Ukraine is lukewarm and that Kyiv will eventually have to give it what it wants. Russia clearly felt no pressure to respond positively to Zelenskyy’s overture, which it probably read as a weakness to be exploited. For these reasons, Zelenskyy now appears less optimistic that rapid progress to end the war is possible. A new summit of the ‘Normandy’ powers may happen but looks unlikely in the near future. This may act as an incentive for further bilateral negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, such as those which delivered the prisoner swap. However, a diplomatic process managed by Zelenskyy and Putin alone risks reducing Ukraine’s leverage. Finally, the main obstacles to implementation of the Minsk Agreements – radically different views of elections in, and ‘special status’ for, the DNR and LNR – remain. The Kremlin’s versions of both would gravely limit Ukraine’s sovereignty; Kyiv’s would facilitate the re-establishment of its control over the east. It is hard to see how this gap can be bridged.Tellingly, the Steinmeier Formula offers no answer to this conundrum. Some conflicts, it seems, are resistant to diplomatic compromises that aim to satisfy everyone equally. Full Article