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To Pressure Iran, Pompeo Turns to the Deal Trump Renounced

The secretary of state is preparing an argument that the U.S. remains a participant in the Obama-era nuclear deal, with the goal of extending an arms embargo or destroying the accord.




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Why Bernie Sanders Will Win in 2020, No Matter Who Gets Elected

Stephen Walt writes that even though Bernie Sanders is out of the presidential race, the time has come for many of the policies that he promoted: Universal Healthcare; Democratic Socialism; Income Redistribution; and Foreign Policy.




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Oil's Collapse Is a Geopolitical Reset In Disguise

The world is on the cusp of a geopolitical reset. The global pandemic could well undermine international institutions, reinforce nationalism and spur de-globalization. But far-sighted leadership could also rekindle cooperation, glimmers of which appeared in the G-20’s offer of debt relief for some of the world’s poorest countries, a joint plea from more than 200 former national leaders for a more coordinated pandemic response and an unprecedented multinational pact to arrest the crash in oil markets.  




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Romney's Reckless China Rhetoric Risks New Cold War

Rachel Esplin Odell argues for a wiser and more conservative strategy that resists the temptation to exaggerate the challenge posed by China.




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The United States Forgot Its Strategy for Winning Cold Wars

Stephen Walt writes that arguments against U.S. offshore balancing misunderstand history. The strategy that worked against the Soviet Union can work against China.




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Maxwell Taylor's Cold War: From Berlin to Vietnam

Nathaniel Moir reviews Maxwell Taylor's Cold War: From Berlin to Vietnam by Ingo Trauschweizer.




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An Abysmal Failure of Leadership

During times of crisis, the most effective leaders are those who can build solidarity by educating the public about its own interests. Sadly, in the case of COVID-19, the leaders of the world's two largest economies have gone in the opposite direction, all but ensuring that the crisis will deepen.




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Next Moves on Climate Policy: A Conversation with Sue Biniaz

Sue Biniaz, former lead climate negotiator for the United States, shared her thoughts on the postponement of COP-26, and on the possible re-engagement of the U.S. in the international effort to address climate change in the newest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program,” a podcast produced by the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.




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Factoring Pandemic Risks into Financial Modelling

Today’s economic crisis leaves us with an unsettling and perplexing regret. Why weren’t financial portfolios already adjusted for risks that stem from health events such as pandemics? After all, financial portfolios are adjusted for liquidity risks, market risks, credit risks, and even operational and political risks.




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Letter from London on the coronavirus: An order to stay apart brought us together

Dear America,

In London there is much talk of a new “spirit of the Blitz” in the face of another deadly threat to us all.

But 80 years on, that spirit is expressing itself very differently. When the Luftwaffe bombs fell, to continue with normal life was an act of patriotic defiance. Now as COVID-19 spreads, to continue with normal life is an act of punishable deviance.




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Oil Markets Provide a Glimpse of the Post-Pandemic Future

Henry Kissinger warns that many existing domestic and international institutions that have helped govern the past decades will not survive the Covid-19 crisis. He is surely correct.




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Selective Wilsonianism: Material Interests and the West's Support for Democracy

Analysis of the West's differing responses to Ukrainian and Armenian mass movements reveal that, contrary to the popular Wilsonian narrative, the West assists democratic movements only when that assistance coincides with its material interests.




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Transatlantic Dialogue: The Missing Link in Europe’s Post-Covid-19 Green Deal?

This policy brief emphasizes that the European Green Deal's effectiveness in a post Covid-19 world will require the involvement of strategic partners, especially the US. In the context of a potential US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the consequential vacuum, it will be even more important to engage the US in implementing the GD. In light of divergence between the US and the EU during past climate negotiations (e.g. Kyoto, Copenhagen, and Paris), we suggest a gradual approach to US engagement with GD initiatives and objectives.




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No, the Coronavirus Will Not Change the Global Order

Joseph Nye advises skepticism toward claims that the pandemic changes everything. China won't benefit, and the United States will remain preeminent.




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The Global Pandemic Has Spawned New Forms of Activism — and They're Flourishing

The authors have identified nearly 100 distinct methods of nonviolent action that include physical, virtual and hybrid actions.




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There's No Such Thing as Good Liberal Hegemony

Stephen Walt argues that as democracies falter, it's worth considering whether the United States made the right call in attempting to create a liberal world order.




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In a Global Emergency, Women are Showing How to Lead

Zoe Marks argues that to the extent that female heads of state are performing better than men against the coronavirus crisis, it's likely because women are expected to be — and have learned to be — more democratic leaders, more collaborative and more compassionate communicators.




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Global Problem, Local Solutions

The Arctic Initiative is pairing policy and science scholars with local experts to find practical climate solutions.




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Action on Plastic: On Track with the Regional Action Plan for the Arctic

In October 2019, the Belfer Center's Arctic Initiative and the Wilson Center's Polar Institute co-hosted a workshop on Policy and Action on Plastic in the Arctic Ocean with the Icelandic Chairmanship of the Arctic Council. The Arctic Council asked Magnús Jóhannesson, the Council's designated Special Coordinator on Plastics Pollution and Marine Litter, and Gunn-Britt Retter, Head of Arctic and Environmental Unit at the Saami Council — who both participated in the workshop — to comment on some of the points that the report raises.




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So Do Morals Matter in U.S. Foreign Policy? I Asked the Expert.

In his new book, Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump, Joseph S. Nye developed a scorecard to determine how U.S. presidents since 1945 factored questions of ethics and morality into their foreign policy. In an interview, Henry Farrell asked him a few questions to get to the heart of his findings.




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How COVID-19 is Testing American Leadership

Joseph Nye suggests that a new U.S. administration might take a leaf from the success of the post-1945 American presidents that are described in Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump. The United States could launch a massive COVID-19 aid program like the Marshall Plan.




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Oil's Collapse Is a Geopolitical Reset In Disguise

The world is on the cusp of a geopolitical reset. The global pandemic could well undermine international institutions, reinforce nationalism and spur de-globalization. But far-sighted leadership could also rekindle cooperation, glimmers of which appeared in the G-20’s offer of debt relief for some of the world’s poorest countries, a joint plea from more than 200 former national leaders for a more coordinated pandemic response and an unprecedented multinational pact to arrest the crash in oil markets.  




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The United States Forgot Its Strategy for Winning Cold Wars

Stephen Walt writes that arguments against U.S. offshore balancing misunderstand history. The strategy that worked against the Soviet Union can work against China.




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Breaking the Ice: How France and the UK Could Reshape a Credible European Defense and Renew the Transatlantic Partnership

History is replete with irony, but rarely more poignantly than in the summer of 2016 when, on 23 June, the UK voted to leave the European Union and the next day, 24 June, the EU published its Global Strategy document asserting its ambition of “strategic autonomy.” Whither Franco-British defense cooperation in such chaotic circumstances? This paper attempts to provide the outline of an answer to that question.




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An Abysmal Failure of Leadership

During times of crisis, the most effective leaders are those who can build solidarity by educating the public about its own interests. Sadly, in the case of COVID-19, the leaders of the world's two largest economies have gone in the opposite direction, all but ensuring that the crisis will deepen.




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Eurasian Ice Sheet collapse was a major source of Meltwater Pulse 1A 14,600 years ago




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The rough ride of subducting fault surfaces




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Abundant nitrite-oxidizing metalloenzymes in the mesopelagic zone of the tropical Pacific Ocean




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Recent north magnetic pole acceleration towards Siberia caused by flux lobe elongation




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Significant methane ebullition from alpine permafrost rivers on the East Qinghai–Tibet Plateau




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Critical role of water in the formation of continental crust




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The Case for Transatlantic Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific

The evolving strategic dynamics in the Indo-Pacific are of paramount importance for the future of the rules-based international order. While the United States is redirecting strategic focus to the region as part of its Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy, Europe is also stepping up its role—leveraging a strong economic profile, long-standing bilateral ties, and active engagement in various regional multilateral forums. The European Union (EU) and its member states can make distinct contributions to an open, transparent, inclusive, and rules-based regional order, though not necessarily always in lockstep with Washington.




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The World Didn't Change Much in 2019. That's Bad News for 2020

Stephen Walt writes that several important events occurred in 2019, but few did anything to significantly alter global trends.




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How to Topple Dictators and Transform Society

Nonviolent resistance scholar Erica Chenoweth explains the key ingredients of successful social movements.




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Economics Can Still Help Solve the Climate Crisis

Critics called last month's UN Climate Summit a disaster, but environmental economist and Harvard Kennedy School Professor Robert Stavins says global climate negotiators actually laid the groundwork for meaningful results in the future.




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2020–2021 International Security Program Research Fellowships: Apply Now

The International Security Program (ISP) is still accepting applications for 2020–2021.  ISP is a multidisciplinary research group that develops and trains new talent in security studies by hosting pre- and postdoctoral research fellows. 




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How Do Science and Policy Intersect? Harvard Professor Explains

Sheila Jasanoff, a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School, speaks to TNM about the need for Science and Technology Studies, policy playing catch-up with the progress of science, data collection in democracies and more.




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The New Spheres of Influence

Unipolarity is over, and with it the illusion that other nations would simply take their assigned place in a U.S.-led international order. For the United States, that will require accepting the reality that there are spheres of influence in the world today—and that not all of them are American spheres.




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Will the Coronavirus Trigger a Global Recession?

At the start of this year, things seemed to be looking up for the global economy. True, growth had slowed a bit in 2019: from 2.9% to 2.3% in the United States, and from 3.6% to 2.9% globally. Still, there had been no recession, and as recently as January, the International Monetary Fund projected a global growth rebound in 2020. The new coronavirus, COVID-19, has changed all of that.




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Is Trump Risking the Bedrock Principle of the U.S.-India Partnership?

Trump must balance the critical military and economic ties the United States is building with India against the repudiation by the Modi government of the very principles that are at the foundation of the friendship itself.




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Illuminating Homes with LEDs in India: Rapid Market Creation Towards Low-carbon Technology Transition in a Developing Country

This paper examines a recent, rapid, and ongoing transition of India's lighting market to light emitting diode (LED) technology, from a negligible market share to LEDs becoming the dominant lighting products within five years, despite the country's otherwise limited visibility in the global solid-state lighting industry.




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U.S. Intervention in Russia-Saudi Impasse Isn't Tenable (Radio)

Meghan L. O’Sullivan, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s Kennedy School, former National Security Council advisor, and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, discusses the oil market plunge, and the Russia-Saudi relationship. Hosted by Lisa Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney.




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COVID-19 Pandemic Accelerates the Rise of Digital Payments

Could using the cash in your pocket have the potential to spread covid-19? That question has rarely appeared in the news, but many governments and leaders in the digital payments industry are wondering how the virus might impact the use of cash. Several countries have already taken drastic measures to limit circulation of bank notes. Could such interventions lead to the end of cash payments?




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Urban Waste to Energy Recovery Assessment Simulations for Developing Countries

In this paper, a quantitative Waste to Energy Recovery Assessment (WERA) framework is used to stochastically analyze the feasibility of waste-to-energy systems in selected cities in Asia.




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Foreseeable Unforeseeables

Contrary to what US President Donald Trump would like to believe, a pandemic like COVID-19 was predicted as recently as last year. After being caught off guard by yet another catastrophe, one wonders when political leaders, markets, and average citizens will start to take risk seriously.




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The Strategic Postures of China and India: A Visual Guide

Fueled by aggressive rhetoric from both capitals, Indian and Chinese ground forces engaged in a standoff between June and August 2017. The Doklam crisis, as it became known, stimulated introspection among officials and experts in both states about the future of their relationship. Politically, both strategic communities largely concluded that the peaceful resolution of border disputes is now less likely, forecasting more rivalry than cooperation. Militarily, Indian discussions on the strength of its military position against China in their disputed ground frontier areas have converged on the view that China holds the conventional and nuclear edge over India in this domain.

Based on our analysis of data on the location and capabilities of Indian and Chinese strategic forces and related military units, we conclude that this assessment of the balance of forces may be mistaken and a poor guide for Indian security and procurement policies. We recommend that instead of investing in new nuclear weapons platforms that our analysis suggests are not likely to be required to deter China, New Delhi should improve the survivability of its existing forces and fill the gap in global arms control leadership with an initiative on restraint and transparency.




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Factoring Pandemic Risks into Financial Modelling

Today’s economic crisis leaves us with an unsettling and perplexing regret. Why weren’t financial portfolios already adjusted for risks that stem from health events such as pandemics? After all, financial portfolios are adjusted for liquidity risks, market risks, credit risks, and even operational and political risks.




l

Oil Markets Provide a Glimpse of the Post-Pandemic Future

Henry Kissinger warns that many existing domestic and international institutions that have helped govern the past decades will not survive the Covid-19 crisis. He is surely correct.




l

Oil's Collapse Is a Geopolitical Reset In Disguise

The world is on the cusp of a geopolitical reset. The global pandemic could well undermine international institutions, reinforce nationalism and spur de-globalization. But far-sighted leadership could also rekindle cooperation, glimmers of which appeared in the G-20’s offer of debt relief for some of the world’s poorest countries, a joint plea from more than 200 former national leaders for a more coordinated pandemic response and an unprecedented multinational pact to arrest the crash in oil markets.  




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Deadly friends