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A Credit-fuelled Economic Recovery Stores Up Trouble for Turkey

A Credit-fuelled Economic Recovery Stores Up Trouble for Turkey Expert comment sysadmin 17 February 2020

Turkey is repeating the mistakes that led to the 2018 lira crisis and another freefall for the currency may not be far off.

Headquarters of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. Photo: Getty Images.

Since the 2018 economic crisis, when the value of the lira plummeted and borrowing costs soared, Turkey’s economy has achieved a miraculous ‘V-shaped’ economic recovery from a recession lasting three quarters to a return back to quarterly growth above 1 per cent in the first three months of 2019.

But this quick turnaround has been built on vast amounts of cheap credit used to re-stimulate a consumption and construction boom. This so-called ‘triple C’ economy generated a rapid growth spurt akin to a modestly able professional sprinter injected with steroids.

This has made the currency vulnerable. The lira has steadily depreciated by 11 per cent against the US dollar since the beginning of 2019 and crossed the rate of 6 lira versus the US dollar on 7 February. And there are further warning signs on the horizon.

Credit bonanza

Statistics reveal that Turkish domestic credit grew by around 13 per cent on average throughout 2019. The credit bonanza is still ongoing. Mortgage-backed home sales jumped by a record high of 600 per cent last December alone and the 2019 budget deficit catapulted by 70 per cent due to higher government spending.

Turkey’s central bank fuelled this credit expansion by cutting interest rates aggressively to below inflation and, since the start of this year, purchasing lira-denominated bonds equivalent to around one-third of total acquisitions last year to push yields lower.

Equally, it has linked bank lending to reserve requirements – the money that banks have to keep at the central bank – to boost borrowings via state and private banks. Banks with a ‘real’ loan growth (including inflation) of between 5 and 15 per cent enjoy a 2 per cent reserve ratio on most lira deposits, which authorities adjusted from an earlier band of 10-20 per cent that did not consider double-digit inflation.

Cumulatively, bond purchases (effectively quantitative easing) and reserve management policies have also contributed to eased credit conditions.

Commercial banks have also reduced deposit rates on lira accounts to less than inflation to encourage consumption over saving. Together with low lending rates, the boost to the economy has flowed via mortgages, credit card loans, vehicle leasing transactions and general business borrowings.

Accordingly, stimulus is at the forefront of the government’s economic approach, as it was in 2017 and 2018. It does not seem to be implementing structural change to re-orient growth away from consumption towards productivity.

In addition, governance is, again, a central issue. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s near total monopolization of policymaking means he guides all domestic and external policies. He forced out the previous central bank governor, Murat Cetinkaya, in July 2019 because he did not share the president’s desire for an accelerated pace of interest rate reductions.

New challenges

Despite the similarities, the expected future financial turbulence will be materially different from its 2018 predecessor in four crucial respects.

Firstly, foreign investors will only be marginally involved. Turkey has shut out foreign investors since 2018 from lira-denominated assets by restricting lira swap arrangements. Unsurprisingly, the non-resident holdings of lira bonds has plummeted from 20 per cent in 2018 to less than 10 per cent today.

Secondly, the Turkish government has recently introduced indirect domestic capital controls by constraining most commercial transactions to the lira rather than to the US dollar or euro to reduce foreign currency demand in light of short-term external debt obligations of $191 billion.

Thirdly, the Turkish state banks are intervening quite regularly to soften Lira volatility, thereby transitioning from a ‘free float’ to a ‘managed float’. So far, they have spent over $37 billion over the last two years in a futile effort to buttress the lira. This level of involvement in currency markets cannot be maintained.

Fourthly, the Turkish state is being far more interventionist in the Turkish stock exchange and bond markets to keep asset prices elevated. Government-controlled local funds have participated in the Borsa Istanbul and state banks in sovereign debt to sustain rallies or reverse a bear market.

All these measures have one running idea: exclude foreign investors and no crisis will recur. Yet, when the credit boom heads to a downturn sooner or later, Turks will probably escalate lira conversions to US dollars; 51 per cent of all Turkish bank deposits are already dollar-denominated and the figure is still rising.

If Turkey’s limited foreign reserves cannot satisfy the domestic dollar demand, the government may have to impose comprehensive capital controls and allow for a double digit depreciation in the value of the lira to from its current level, with significant repercussions on Turkey’s political stability and economic climate.

To avoid this scenario, it needs to restore fiscal and monetary prudence, deal the with the foreign debt overhang in the private sector and focus on productivity-improving economic and institutional reforms to gain the confidence of global financial markets and Turks alike.




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Webinar: Turkey’s Challenging Post-COVID 19 Outlook

Webinar: Turkey’s Challenging Post-COVID 19 Outlook 7 May 2020 — 1:00PM TO 2:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 17 April 2020

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has so far refused to impose a nation-wide lockdown to suppress the spread of coronavirus in the country. In late March, Turkish health officials announced that they expect the virus to peak in three weeks’ time and for Turkey to overcome it quickly. At the same time, Turkey has ruled out turning to the IMF for help in dealing with the crisis despite growing pressures on the Lira and the wider economy. The country’s relations with its traditional allies, the US and Europe, remain thorny.
This event will focus on the likely impact of the epidemic on Turkey’s economy and politics. What are the reasons behind Erdogan’s reluctance to implement a comprehensive lockdown to break the chain of virus transmission? Why is Turkey resolutely opposed to agreeing a funding package with the IMF? What is the macro outlook for 2020 and beyond for the country’s economy? And how may the government’s long-term popularity be affected?




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Turkey-Russia Relations: A Marriage of Convenience?

Turkey-Russia Relations: A Marriage of Convenience? 26 November 2020 — 12:00PM TO 1:30PM Anonymous (not verified) 17 November 2020 Chatham House

Speakers discuss the complex but, so far, durable ties between Putin and Erdogan and the perspectives of each leader. Other issues will include the impact of the Biden presidency and the unfolding situation in Nagorny Karabakh.

This is an online only event

Russia-Turkey relations are governed by a unique dynamic between presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. They pursue contrasting objectives in Libya, the Eastern Mediterranean, Caucasus and Ukraine; yet they have managed to compartmentalize their differences to avoid any spill-over into diplomatic, military and economic cooperation.

Erdogan purchased the Russian S400 missile defence system at the cost of ejection from the US-led fourth generation F35 stealth fighter programme; and at the risk of sanctions by Washington. Russia is also proceeding with the construction of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant near Turkey’s Mediterranean coast.




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Turkey Needs Radical New Direction to Save the Economy

Turkey Needs Radical New Direction to Save the Economy Expert comment NCapeling 23 November 2020

Turkey should emulate the reformist approach it adopted after the 2001 crisis to prevent an economic and financial breakdown - but this looks highly unlikely.

Although Ankara has witnessed what appears to be an abrupt change of its top economic team with two fresh appointments to key positions – Naci Ağbal as governor of the central bank and Lütfi Elvan as finance and treasury minister – a cardinal rule of thumb in Turkish politics is that the more drama one sees, the less policy change there will actually be.

Financial markets reacted positively to the moves in the expectation they will signal a change of Turkey’s overall economic approach, but the reality is Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is simply putting loyalists into key bureaucratic positions to help ensure the primary role of these functions becomes ‘selling’ his policies more effectively, rather than altering them.

The hope from the markets – which saw the beleaguered Turkish lira appreciate against the US dollar at the news – is that Turkey adopts substantial interest rate increases as well as measures to repress liquidity expansion in order to temper its controversial so-called ‘Triple C’ approach of using cheap credit to stimulate growth with an unsustainable consumption and construction boom.

But instead, Erdoğan’s declaration after the appointments were made indicates the new restrictions in which they will now operate, saying ‘we are in a historic struggle against those who want to force Turkey into modern capitulations through the shackles of interest rates, foreign exchange rates and inflation’.

Learn from past successes

To resolve its current underlying economic problems, Turkey should actually be looking to its recent past and aiming to emulate the approach pursued by former prime minister Bülent Ecevit during the 2001 financial crisis when he recruited Kemal Derviş, a senior World Bank official with extensive experience and international contacts in economic, financial, and monetary affairs.

As economy minister with a broad mandate to spearhead a durable economic recovery plan, Dervis established independent market regulatory agencies covering banking, telecommunications, energy, and other key sectors, and strengthened the competition authority.

He also either liquidated or merged insolvent banks, granted central bank autonomy to guarantee price stability, and ensured recruitment was based on competence, expertise, and meritocracy. Crucially, his productivity-enhancing restructuring blueprint was designed in Turkey rather than being imposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or another external agency.

Ecevit also turbocharged reforms motivated in part by a desire to join the EU with constitutional, political and legal modernization which widened personal freedom, significantly curtailed capital punishment, liberalized the cultural environment for Kurds, and fortified the rule of law. And one of his coalition partners in that work, the right-wing pro-Turkish National Action Party (MHP), is now allied with the current ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).

His foreign minister Ismail Cem also enhanced Turkey’s relations with both Europe and the US, initiated the so-called ‘earthquake diplomacy’ with his Greek counterpart George Papandreou after twin tragedies struck both nations in 1999, and largely avoided entanglement in Middle Eastern conflicts.

The net result of all these actions was that Turkey emerged from the crisis with greater resilience, a more robust regulatory framework, upgraded political and economic institutions, rapidly decreasing inflation, a credible central bank, a stronger financial system, closer relations with the EU and US, and heightened domestic and foreign investor confidence.

But now that similar woes are engulfing Turkey anew, is Erdogan and the AKP/MHP alliance able – and willing – to repeat the Ecevit recipe? Present signs indicate they are highly unlikely to as they are too committed to entrenching the Triple C model.

Although this model will likely further consolidate their power, it will also empty the civil service of qualified professionals, restrict civil liberties and freedoms, and create more ideological politics, affecting Turkey’s foreign policy.

Such a stubborn refusal to shift direction is increasing the inevitability of a deep economic and financial breakdown and so, unless Turkey undertakes a serious policy departure instead of continuing to resort to the quick fix approach, there is real likelihood it will simply accelerate towards disaster.




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2025 Luis J. Alvarez and Admiral Grace M. Hopper Postdoc Fellowship in Computing Sciences

2025 Luis J. Alvarez and Admiral Grace M. Hopper Postdoc Fellowship in Computing Sciences - 102564 Division: AC-Computing Luis J. Alvarez Postdoctoral Fellowship and Admiral Grace M. Hopper Postdoctoral Fellowship in Computing Sciences The Computing Sciences Area (https://cs.lbl.gov/) at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (https://www.lbl.gov) is now accepting applications for two distinguished postdoctoral fellowships in Computing Sciences: • Luis W. Alvarez Postdoctoral Fellowship, and • Admiral Grace M. Hopper Postdoctoral Fellowship. Researchers in computer science, mathematics, data science, or any computational science discipline who have received their Ph.D. no earlier than January 1, 2022 but no later than September 30, 2025 are encouraged to apply. Only one (1) application is needed and it will be considered for both postdoctoral fellowships. The successful candidates will participate in research activities in computer science, mathematics, data science, or any computational science discipline of interest to the Computing Sciences Area and Berkeley Lab. Alvarez Fellows apply advances in computer science, mathematics, computational science, data science, machine learning or AI to computational modeling, simulations, and advanced data analytics for scientific discovery in materials science, biology, astronomy, environmental science, energy, particle physics, genomics, and other scientific domains. Hopper Fellows concentrate on the development and optimization of scientific and engineering applications leveraging high-speed network capability provided by the Energy Sciences Network or run on next-generation high performance computing and data systems hosted by the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center at Berkeley Lab. Since its founding in 2002, Berkeley Lab’s Luis W. Alvarez Postdoctoral Fellowship (go.lbl.gov/alvarez) has cultivated exceptional early career scientists who have gone on to make outstanding contributions to computer science, mathematics, data science, and computational sciences. The Admiral Grace Hopper Postdoctoral Fellowship (go.lbl.gov/hopper) was first awarded in 2015 with the goal of enabling early career scientists to make outstanding contributions in computer science and high performance computing (HPC) research. About Computing Sciences at Berkeley Lab: Whether running extreme-scale simulations on a supercomputer or applying machine-learning or data analysis to massive datasets, scientists today rely on advances in and integration across applied mathematics, computer science, and computational science, as well as large-scale computing and networking facilities, to increase our understanding of ourselves, our planet, and our universe. Berkeley Labs Computing Sciences Area researches, develops, and deploys new tools and technologies to meet these needs and to advance research in our core capabilities of applied mathematics, computer science, data science, and computational science. In addition to fundamental advances in our core capabilities, we impact such areas as astrophysics and cosmology, accelerator physics, chemical science and materials science, combustion, fusion energy, nuclear physics, biology, climate change, and HPC systems and network technology. Research areas in Computing Sciences include but are not limited to: • Developing scientific applications and software technologies for extreme-scale and energy-efficient • Developing mathematical modeling for complex scientific problems • Designing algorithms to improve the performance of scientific applications • Researching digital and post-digital computer architectures for science • Developing and advancing extreme-scale scientific data management, analysis, and visualization • Developing and advancing next-generation machine learning, AI, and data science approaches for science • Advancing quantum computing and networking technologies, software, algorithms and applications • Evaluating or developing new and promising HPC systems and networking technologies • Researching methods to control and manage next-generation networks • Managing scientific data and workflows in distributed environments Qualifications: • Requires a Ph.D. in computer science, mathematics, computational science, or related discipline. • Candidates must have no more than 3 years of Postdoctoral Researcher or similar experience. • Expertise with advanced algorithms, software techniques, HPC systems and/or networking in a related research field. • Demonstrated creativity and the ability to perform independent research. • Demonstrated excellence in a related research field. • Ability to develop new cross-disciplinary partnerships that use advanced computational and/or mathematical techniques to produce unique lab capabilities. • Excellent communication skills with the ability to facilitate communications and collaborations with internal and external stakeholders. Additional Desired Qualifications: • Knowledge of advanced computing and high-performance computing. Application Process: 1. As part of your application process, you must upload and submit the following materials with your online application. 1. Cover letter 2. CV, with publication list included 3. Research Statement (no more than five (5) pages in length when printed using standard letter-size (8.5 inch x 11 inch) paper with 1-inch margins (top, bottom, left, and right) and a font size not smaller than 11 point; figures and references cited, if included, must fit within the five-page limit) 4. Contact information (name, affiliation, and email address) of at least three (3) individuals who will be able to provide letters of reference. 2. Application deadline: October 31, 2024. * It is highly advisable that you have all the required application materials and information ready and available prior to completing and submitting your application. Your application will not be considered complete if any of the above information is missing. Tentative Application Timeline: The Computing Sciences Fellowship Selection Committee is made up of a diverse representation of scientists and engineers across Berkeley Lab’s Computing Sciences Area who will conduct a thorough review of all applications received. • Application deadline: October 31, 2024 • Review and Selection: October 2024 - December 2024 • Decisions made: January/February 2025 Want to learn more about working at Berkeley Lab? Please visit: careers.lbl.gov How To Apply Apply directly online at http://50.73.55.13/counter.php?id=290341 and follow the on-line instructions to complete the application process. Berkeley Lab is committed to inclusion, diversity, equity and accessibility and strives to continue building community with these shared values and commitments. Berkeley Lab is an Equal Opportunity and Affirmative Action Employer. We heartily welcome applications from women, minorities, veterans, and all who would contribute to the Labs mission of leading scientific discovery, inclusion, and professionalism. In support of our diverse global community, all qualified applicants will be considered for employment without regard to race, color, religion, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, national origin, disability, age, or protected veteran status. Equal Opportunity and IDEA Information Links: Know your rights, click here (http://www.dol.gov/ofccp/regs/compliance/posters/ofccpost.htm) for the supplement: Equal Employment Opportunity is the Law and the Pay Transparency Nondiscrimination Provision (https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/ofccp/pdf/pay-transp_%20English_formattedESQA508c.pdf) under 41 CFR 60-1.4.




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