Mar 14, 2024

The non-Soviet members of the Warsaw Pact contributed to the end of the Cold War along with the superpowers. These Eastern European states recognized that their relationship with the Soviet Union would impede their success in the post–Cold War world, so they ended the Pact.

Mar 15, 2024

Europe after the Russo-Ukrainian War must develop a new security structure to defend against any Russian aggression. The safest option is a non-offensive, confidence-building defense. This option includes proposals such as the “spider in the web” strategy and the “porcupine” strategy to provide for European security in a region threatened by Russian expansion—without relying on the threat of nuclear war.

Mar 25, 2024

Bystander video feeds show scenes of fire and destruction, flames engulfing pipelines and smoke billowing from oil tank farms. In one clip, a twin-tailed aircraft flies slowly over a burning refinery. It loiters, banks, and then plunges precisely into the top of a tall, hydrocarbon filled distillation tower followed by explosions and more fire.

Kyiv is turning the tables on Russia by striking at its hydrocarbon lifeblood. Ukraine’s justified and effective homegrown response to Putin’s two-year campaign of attacks on the nation’s energy infrastructure shows Russia that what goes around comes around.

Apr 9, 2024

This paper delves into the evolution and future prospects of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), with a particular focus on the United States' Global Positioning System (GPS) and Europe's Galileo. As GPS celebrates its 50th anniversary, it is a timely moment to assess its historical trajectory, current status, and future directions, especially considering the emergence of new competitors like China's BeiDou. Based on interviews with two GNSS experts from the European Commission, this study aims to analyze the potential for cooperation between GPS and Galileo, exploring avenues for collaboration and mutual learning.

Apr 12, 2024

The share of Russians who would like to leave Russia for permanent residence in another country has reached a record low, according to the results of a national poll conducted by Russia’s Levada Center on March 21-27, 2024.  Of the countries Russians were eager to relocate to, the U.S. topped the list (11%), followed by Germany (8%) and Italy and Turkey (6% each). China ranked 10-11 along with Canada.That seven out of the top 11 countries Russians would like to relocate to are members of the collective West, with 46% interested in moving to these countries, also shows the limits of the Kremlin’s efforts to instill anti-Western sentiments in the Russian public.

Mar 14, 2024

Stephen Walt writes that those who favor foreign policy restraint believe the United States should trade and invest in other countries, encourage other states to do the same, and be open to managed immigration instead of building walls in a fit of xenophobia.

Jul 23, 2024

In the lead up to the October 2021 federal elections, the streets of Baghdad were lined with posters of female candidates. Some were familiar faces with clear political baggage and history, like Sara Iyad Allawi, the daughter of Iraq’s former prime minister. Others were former members of parliament from entrenched political parties. What drew the most excitement from observers, however, were the campaigns of civil activists who had participated in the October protest movement. Locally known as the “Tishreen Movement”, the October protest movement was the largest sustained protest movement in post-2003 Iraq’s history, which took place between October 2019 and February 2020 and involved the participation of hundreds of thousands across multiple cities. The protest movement succeeded in pushing for a new electoral law and in holding early elections, though the elections were only six months ahead of the traditional schedule by the time they were organized. These women represented a new type of female candidate, one without ties to the entrenched elite and who represented. Iraq’s youthful society. Their participation, like the protest movement itself, heralded to many a new era of Iraqi politics, one where younger women were confident enough to run for office and who relied on grassroots campaigning and social media.

Apr 17, 2024

Joseph Nye argues that episodes of "declinism" say more about popular psychology than geo-political analysis, but they also show how the idea of decline touches a raw nerve in American politics. China is not an existential threat to the United States unless U.S. leaders make it one by blundering into a major war.

Apr 29, 2024

Kyrgyzstan is currently at a critical geopolitical juncture in which it is forced to
confront its longstanding ties with Russia against a backdrop of internal and external
pressures towards autocracy. Once celebrated as the ‘island of democracy’ in Central
Asia, the small nation faces significant challenges in light of internal authoritarian
tendencies and external pressure following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in
February 2022. This report, therefore, examines the role of Kyrgyzstan within the
global democracy versus autocracy debate that has intensified in the past two years
and assesses President Japarov’s neutrality with regards to Russia’s invasion and
Bishkek’s shifting allegiances.

This report relies on a qualitative methodology that builds on field research conducted
in Kyrgyzstan in August 2023. As such, this report incorporates interviews with
Kyrgyz civil society organizations and other stakeholders working on issues
including, but not limited to, democratization, corruption, human rights, media, and
the rule of law. The report presents an in-depth analysis of the Russian influence with
regards to the Kyrgyz political system, civil society, and strategic relationship with
Moscow, underpinned by the historical context of Kyrgyz-Russian relations.

Jun 2, 2023

A spate of high-level diplomatic gatherings demonstrates that the Russian leadership remains keen to implement a strategy of expansion, rather than merely sustainment, of its relations with the rising Africa.

Nov 3, 2023

The recent coup in Niger is but the latest reminder of the importance of militaries in processes of democratization. Historically, soldiers have been the leading cause of democratic collapse. Over 61% of the democracies that died between 1789 and 2008 did so due to a military coup. Today, coups remain a potent threat, ending democratic transitions in Egypt, Thailand, Mali, Myanmar, Guinea, Sudan, Burkina Faso, and Niger, among others.

Jan 25, 2024

Peter Ajak argues that the strength and principles of democracy—and the resolve of the international community—are being tested in South Sudan.

Apr 12, 2024

Judd Devermont is interviewed by Natalie Colber about the U.S.'s new policy towards sub-Saharan Africa in April, 2024.

Apr 25, 2024

On April 23, the final session examined healthcare access policies and public health initiatives across Africa. In our discussions, we explored the politics of health and healthcare policy, particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. We identified political barriers to expanding healthcare coverage and access, and the dialogue centered on areas of progress in addressing infectious and chronic diseases. Beyond focusing on the challenges in implementing effective healthcare policies, in this session we invited participants to propose policy solutions as we look towards the future. The study group counted with the presence of external expert guest Dr. Salma Abdalla. Dr. Abdalla is a Sudanese medical doctor and Assistant Professor in Global Health and Epidemiology at Boston University School of Public Health. She was the Director of the Rockefeller-Boston University 3-D Commission on Determinants of health, Data science, and Decision making. She also served as a secretariat member for the WHO Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response during the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, Katie Chen, Master in Public Administration/ International Development Candidate at Harvard Kennedy School, delivered a memo briefing on how to boost childhood immunization rates in African countries, including through increased vaccine manufacturing, drone delivery., and behavioural interventions to combat vaccine hesitancy.

Jun 28, 2024

Ensuring that space remains a domain for peaceful exploration and mutual benefit rather than a new frontier for conflict will significantly depend on the global community's ability to navigate the complex interplay of technological advancements, regulatory frameworks, economic opportunities, and geopolitical challenges. 

This paper was written for the final assignment of IGA-250, a Harvard Kennedy School course on emerging technology: security, strategy, and risk.

Apr 17, 2024

From climate science to healthcare to waste management, read on for key takeaways from our team’s activities at Arctic Encounter Symposium 2024 in Anchorage, Alaska.

May 23, 2024

Framing climate policy actions to be acceptable by various stakeholders in cities poses a critical task for urban governance. This paper draws on the literature on climate change discourse to analyze the content of framing and its reasoning in the two municipalities located in the Arctic: Murmansk, Russia, and Tromsø, Norway.

May 30, 2024

The intersessional conference stands as one of the most important regular milestones in international climate negotiations, but its relatively unknown status compared to the COPs has made it difficult to understand its place in international climate policymaking.

Jun 18, 2024

The rise of political populism and economic protectionism are serious barriers impeding efforts to combat global climate change. Robert Lawrence, the Albert Williams Professor of International Trade and Investment at Harvard Kennedy School, expressed those concerns in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.”

Jul 8, 2024

The ways in which land use and environmental policies intersect with natural resource sustainability and climate change was the focus of discussion in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program” featuring Charles Taylor, assistant professor of public policy at Harvard Kennedy School. The podcast is produced by the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.

Dec 24, 2023

Juliette Kayyem argues that the sooner President Joe Biden acknowledges that the United States will likely be drawn into a fight to protect shipping traffic through the Suez Canal, the more time the U.S. military has to plan, and the less severe the harm will be to the global economy.

Mar 19, 2024

Africa is home to approximately 1.4 billion people[1], about 16 percent of the world’s population, yet its continental share in global trade remains below 3 percent[2], according to the World Trade Organization (WTO). This suboptimal proportion of world trade is compounded by Africa's limited intra-continental trade. During the 26th Africa Business Conference (ABC) held at Harvard Business School (HBS) on the 17^th of February 20, 2024, industry experts, policymakers, students, faculty members, and entrepreneurs converged to interrogate these concerns and explore opportunities for improving intra-African trade. 

Mar 28, 2024

On March 26, the study group met for the first time to examine recent democratic progress and backsliding in African countries. The session focused on ongoing conflicts in different regions of Africa and examined their political underpinnings. Participants also discussed the role of third-party actors in supporting and facilitating conflict mediation and peacebuilding efforts in the continent. The study group counted with the presence of external expert guest Dr. Antje Herrberg, Chief of Staff of the European Union Capacity Building Mission in Niger (EUCAP Sahel Niger). Dr. Herrberg brings more than two decades of professional and personal experience in transition and conflict resolution, intractable conflict, and terrorism with a deep interest to alleviate the suffering of people. Furthermore, Florian Dirmayer, Master in Public Policy Candidate at Harvard Kennedy School, delivered a memo briefing on European Union Security Cooperation with Niger After the 2023 Military Coup.

Mar 28, 2024

We have heard much about the puzzle that US economic performance under President Joe Biden has been much stronger than voters perceive it to be.  But the current episode is just one instance of a bigger historical puzzle:  the US economy has since World War II consistently done better under Democratic presidents than under Republican presidents.  This fact is even less widely known, including among Democratic voters, than the truth about Biden’s term.  Indeed, some poll results suggest that more Americans believe the reverse, that Republican presidents are better stewards of the economy than Democrats.

Apr 11, 2024

On April 9, the study group met for the third time to examine economic development in Africa. The group explored connections between politics and economic growth trajectories across the continent, and analyzed the role of political instability and policy decisions in fostering development. Discussions covered the impact of factors like commodity markets, foreign aid, trade deals, and regional integration initiatives on development indicators. The study group counted with the presence of external expert guest H.E. Patrick Achi, former Prime Minister of Côte d’Ivoire. Prime Minister Achi shared about his experience at the highest level of government and presented the story of Côte d’Ivoire’s post-independence development as a microcosm of the broader challenges and opportunities facing African nations.

Apr 18, 2024

The fourth session addressed the pressing issue of climate change and its political implications in Africa. This session highlighted the disproportionate impact of climate change effects on African nations and how governments are responding through policy measures. A significant focus of the discussion was placed on current climate financial models and the challenges to accessing funding for renewable energy and electrification projects in Africa. The study group counted with the presence of external expert speaker Ely Sandler, Fellow at the Belfer Center. Ely has worked as a senior consultant at the World Bank and previously at Morgan Stanley for nearly a decade. Policy proposals that Ely developed at Harvard were presented at COP27 and are now being adopted by the World Bank and UAE COP28 Presidency, with the hope of catalyzing trillions of dollars of green investment, in part through Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

May 24, 2024

At first glance, the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism may look like a potential source of international discord. But a closer look suggests that the EU’s strict carbon-pricing regime may be the best chance the world has to achieve the Paris climate agreement’s ambitious emissions-reduction goals.

Apr 17, 2024

Meghan O’Sullivan, Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs director and former Deputy National Security Advisor, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest developments in the Middle East conflict, the potential impact of new sanctions on Iran, what a possible retaliatory strikes from Israel could look like, and more.

Apr 18, 2024

The human tragedy continuing to unfold in Gaza and Israel reminds us how important it is to get strategic forecasting right. While in no way excusing Hamas’ culpability for 7 October, we also cannot dismiss the fact that the failure to anticipate and prepare for such an attack has had grave consequences for communities on both sides of this conflict, undermined efforts to bring peace and prosperity to the region, and affected global interests through the expansion of the conflict to the Red Sea and potentially beyond. 

Jun 2, 2024

Ethnic cleansing is not only a modern phenomenon. The medieval Catholic Church saw non-Christians as a threat and facilitated the ethnoreligious cleansing of Muslim and Jewish communities across Western Europe. Three conditions made this possible: The rising power of the papacy as a supranational religious authority; its dehumanization of non-Christians; and competition among Catholic Western European monarchs that left them vulnerable to papal-clerical demands to eradicate non-Christians. These findings revise our understanding twentieth- and twenty-first-century ethnic cleansing in places like Cambodia, Iraq, Myanmar, the Soviet Union, and Syria.