In comments, Joshua Ellinger points to this news article headlined, “Hundreds of thousands in L.A. County may have been infected with coronavirus, study finds,” reporting: The initial results from the first large-scale study tracking the spread of the coronavirus in [Los Angeles] county found that 2.8% to 5.6% of adults have antibodies to the virus […]

Kostya Medvedovsky writes: I wanted to direct your attention to the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium’s new projections. They’re very similar to the IMHE model you’ve covered before, and had some calibration issues. However, per the writeup by Spencer Woody et al., they do three things you may be interested in: They fix an […]

Uros Seljak writes: You may be interested in our Gaussian Process counterfactual analysis of Italy mortality data that we just posted. Our results are in a strong disagreement with the Stanford seropositive paper that appeared on Friday. Their work was all over the news, but is completely misleading and needs to be countered: they claim […]

I understand the above quote completely. Life would be so much simpler if my work was just reviewed by my personal friends and by people whose careers are tied to mine. Sure, they’d point out problems, but they’d do it in a nice way, quietly. They’d understand that any mistakes I made would never have […]

The following came in the email: I’m a reporter for **, and am looking for comment on the stats Gov Cuomo just released. Would you be available for a 10-minute phone conversation? Please let me know. Thanks so much, and here’s the info: Here is the relevant part: In New York City, about 21 percent, […]

Steven Wood writes: There now some controversy regarding the effectiveness of Remdesivir for treatment of Covid. With the inadvertent posting of results on the WHO website. https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/data-on-gileads-remdesivir-released-by-accident-show-no-benefit-for-coronavirus-patients/ One of the pillars of hope for this treatment is the monkey treatment trial (the paper is here). As an experience clinical trialist I was immediately skeptical of […]

Simas Kucinskas writes: I would like to share some recent research (pdf here). In this paper, I develop a new method for estimating R in real time, and apply it to track the dynamics of COVID-19. The method is based on standard epidemiological theory, but the approach itself is heavily inspired by time-series statistics. I […]

Raghu Parthasarathy writes: I’ve been frustrated by Covid-19 pandemic models, for the opposite reason that I’m usually frustrated by models in science—they seem too simple, when the usual problem with models is over-complexity. Instead of doing more useful things, I wrote this up here. In his post, Parthasarathy writes: Perhaps the models we’re seeing are […]

Last week we discussed the Santa Clara county study, in which 1.5% of the people tested positive for coronavirus. The authors of the study performed some statistical adjustments and summarized with a range of 2.5% to 4.2% for infection rates in the county as a whole, leading to an estimated infection fatality rate of 0.12% […]

This post is by Phil Price, not Andrew. There a couple of things that some people who comment here already know, but some do not, leading to lots of discussion in the comments that keeps rehashing these issues. I’m hoping that by just putting these here I can save some effort. 1. The ‘infection fatality […]

The talk will be sometime the morning of Wed 6 May in this seminar. Title: Some statistical issues in the fight against coronavirus. Abstract: To be a good citizen, you sometimes have to be a bit of a scientist. To be a good scientist, you sometimes have to be a bit of a statistician. And […]

The other day I wrote about the challenge in addressing the pandemic—a worldwide science/engineering problem—using our existing science and engineering infrastructure, which is some mix of government labs and regulatory agencies, private mega-companies, smaller companies, university researchers, and media entities and rich people who can direct attention and resources. The current system might be the […]

Seth Flaxman et al. have an updated version of their model of coronavirus progression. Flaxman writes: Countries with successful control strategies (for example, Greece) never got above small numbers thanks to early, drastic action. Or put another way: if we did China and showed % of population infected (or death rate), we’d erroneously conclude that […]

Joseph Candelora in comments pointed to this updated report on the Santa Clara study we discussed last week. The new report is an improvement on the first version. Here’s what I noticed in a quick look: 1. The summary conclusion, “The estimated population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection […]

tl;dr: Their 95% interval for the infection rate, given the data available, is [0.7%, 1.8%]. My Bayesian interval is [0.3%, 2.4%]. Most of what makes my interval wider is the possibility that the specificity and sensitivity of the tests can vary across labs. To get a narrower interval, you’d need additional assumptions regarding the specificity […]

Kevin Lewis pointed me to this article. It seemed kinda familiar, I took a look at the abstract, and I realized . . . I reviewed this article for the journal! Here was my referee report: The paper seems fine to me. I have only two minor comments, both relating to the abstract. 1. I […]

1. The news! Zad’s cat, pictured above, is not impressed by this bit of cargo-cult science that two people sent to me: No vaccine or effective treatment has yet been found for people suffering from COVID-19. Under the circumstances, a physician in Kansas City wonders whether prayer might make a difference, and he has launched […]

Anthony Fowler wrote a wonderful op-ed. You have to read the whole thing, but let me start with his most important point, about “the temptation to overclaim” in social science: One study estimated the economic value of the people spared through social-distancing efforts. Essentially, the authors took estimates from epidemiologists about the number of lives […]

The University of Washington in Seattle is a big place. It includes the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which has produced a widely-circulated and widely-criticized coronavirus model. As we’ve discussed, the IHME model is essentially a curve-fitting exercise that makes projections using the second derivative of the time trend on the log scale. […]

Part 1 Andrew Lilley, Gianluca Rinaldi, and Matthew Lilley write: You might be familiar with a recent paper by Correira, Luck, and Verner who argued that cities that enacted non-pharmaceutical interventions earlier / for longer during the Spanish Flu of 1918 had higher subsequent economic growth. The paper has had extensive media coverage – e.g. […]

Ivan Oransky points us to this amusing retraction of a meta-analysis. The problem: “Standard errors were used instead of standard deviations when using data from one of the studies”! Actually, I saw something similar happen in a consulting case once. The other side had a report with estimates and standard errors . . . the […]

After closing amid the coronavirus pandemic, the National Park Service is testing public access at several parks across the nation, including two in Utah, with limited offerings and services. Visitor centers and campgrounds remain largely shuttered at Bryce Canyon and Capitol Reef, but visitors are welcome at some of the sites.

Two legislative stalwarts lose endorsements as a wave of younger, more liberal challengers emerges in Minneapolis.

Bank runs should not be a concern, thanks to the system that protects your deposits.

The commissioner's office said clubs remain committed to playing "as many games as possible" when the season begins.

The Orioles outfielder was open with reporters after publishing an emotional essay.

Clark, David Alan May 2, 1958 - Apr 24, 2020 David Alan Clark, 61, of Englewood, Florida, died on Apr 24, 2020. Funeral arrangements .....

By all accounts, the second division of Saturday's Grade 1 Arkansas Derby from Oaklawn in Hot Springs, Ark., going as the 13th race on the 14-race closing-day program, is much deeper in quality than the first division, which is dominated by the Speightstown colt Charlatan, likely an odds-on favorite. Nadal, who like Charlatan is an […]

The post Triple Crown News Minute Presented By Kentucky Equine Research: Arkansas Derby’s Deeper Division appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Following Governor Whitmer's executive order to close places of public accommodation, the Duderstadt Center and all U-M Library buildings have closed to all visitors as of Monday, March 16 at 3pm.

Starting in May the National Park Service (NPS) will begin the reconstruction of Grand Canyon National Park’s popular South Kaibab Trail. The project will significantly improve the condition of the trail for both hikers and mule users alike. The project is expected to take anywhere from two to four years and will include resurfacing of the trail; stabilization and preventative maintenance to existing retaining walls; replacing retaining walls that have been lost to floods, slides, or erosion; repairing and aligning existing water diversion features; etc. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/nps-to-begin-trail-reconstruction-project-on-south-kaibab-trail-within-grand-canyon-np.htm

https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/nps-to-offer-pilot-shuttle-bus-service-from-grca-to-tusayan-again-this-year.htm

The National Park Service (NPS) is now accepting public comments on the construction of a new Science and Resource Management Facility within Grand Canyon National Park. The NPS proposes to design and construct a facility for use by the Division of Science and Resource Management (SRM). In addition to providing necessary office and storage space, the SRM building will invite visiting scientists, students, and others to utilize classrooms and laboratories, offer training sessions, and have some exhibits and opportunities for experiential learning. This cutting edge facility will utilize alternative energy sources and water conservation technology. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/national-park-service-seeking-comments-on-construction-of-new-science-and-resource-management-facility-within-grand-canyon-national-park.htm

https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/implementation-of-south-rim-visitor-transportation-plan.htm

https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/grand-canyon-school-rediological-study.htm

The National Park Service (NPS), with the assistance of the Department Public Safety, searched today for three individuals last seen earlier today in the Colorado River near Phantom Ranch. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news-missing-4-30.htm

Grand Canyon National Park rangers searching for three individuals in the Colorado River https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/canyon-search.htm

Construction began this week on visitor improvements outlined in Grand Canyon National Park's South Rim Visitor Transportation Plan.  https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news-2009-05-01-phase-i.htm

The National Park Service is now accepting comments on mule operations and stock use in Grand Canyon National Park as the agency begins to develop an environmental assessment.  https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news-2009-05-22-stock.htm

Propane line break causes short-term closure of Grand Canyon Visitor Center https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/propane-line-break-causes-short-term-closure-of-grand-canyon-visitor-center.htm

https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/national-park-service-announces-availability-of-environmental-assessment-for-train-operations-in-grand-canyon-national-park.htm

The National Park Service (NPS) and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will hold a meeting on Tuesday, July 28 to update an advisory panel on the agencies’ efforts to restore natural quiet in Grand Canyon National Park. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/national-park-service-and-federal-aviation-administration-to-hold-meeting-on-grand-canyon-overflights.htm

Grand Canyon National Park Superintendent Steve Martin has announced that an Environmental Assessment (EA) for Supai Camp Improvements is now available for public review and comment. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/environmental-assessment-for-improvements-at-supai-camp-within-grand-canyon-national-park-available-for-public-review-and-comment.htm

Grand Canyon National Park Superintendent Steve Martin today announced the availability of the Final Environmental Impact Statement and Assessment of Effect (FEIS/AEF) to update the park’s Fire Management Plan. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/national-park-service-releases-final-environmental-impact-statement-and-assessment-of-effect-to-update-grand-canyon-national-park-fire-management-plan.htm

Construction on Phase I of the improvements called for in Grand Canyon National Park’s South Rim Visitor Transportation Plan (SRVTP) continues to progress.  https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news_2009-08-24_phase_i.htm

A Finding of No Significant Impact was signed on August 28, 2009, by Michael D. Snyder, Regional Director for the Intermountain Region of the National Park Service, for Train Operations at Grand Canyon National Park https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news_2009-08-31_trainea.htm

As the first phase of improvements called for in Grand Canyon National Park's South Rim Visitor Transportation Plan nears completion, the transition to the new South Entrance Road alignment will begin on Tuesday, September 8.  https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news_2009-09-02_phasei.htm

A Finding of No Significant Impact was signed today for improvements to Supai Camp at Grand Canyon National Park. These improvements will be funded in part through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA). https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news_2009-09-03_supai_fonsi.htm

Grand Canyon National Park rangers are searching the Grandview-Hance area for a man who has been missing for at least two days. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news_2009-09-06_search.htm